Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations, the short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality and emotional repair. With the short - term domestic macro - policy in a complete vacuum, the expectation of incremental policies is weak, demand has basically peaked, and as the supply side continues to recover, it is expected to be more dominated by macro - emotional repair in the short term, with the influence of fundamentals decreasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - The unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations has led to an upward revision of the valuation of the black series. The suspension of 90 - day (24% reciprocal tariffs) has strengthened the behavior of seizing exports to the US, and the market has revised its expectation of export decline. The price of the black series has risen collectively, and the price of iron ore has rebounded more strongly due to high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion [3]. Supply - The overall shipment of foreign mines is stable, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. May is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and the shipments of mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the supporting force on the supply side weakening marginally [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The hot metal has decreased to 244.8 (- 0.87) month - on - month, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, the profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the hot metal will decline at a high level with a relatively low downward slope, and the short - term impact on prices is small [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be depleted. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the overall price still in a range - bound pattern and the price center shifting upwards periodically. The price pressure range of the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that the steel price may have a shock rebound, and it is advisable to try shorting at high prices after the rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 (Finished Products) - In early May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the steel inventory was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.1% increase from the same period last month. This week, the average cost of billets of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2,902 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex - factory price of 2,980 yuan/ton on May 14, the average profit of steel mills was 78 yuan/ton. On May 14, the ex - factory price of common square billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 30 yuan, reaching 2,980 yuan [1] - The finished products rebounded yesterday, with both varieties rising more than 1%. The A - share market rebounded, the financial market recovered, and the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the US was released, bringing macro - level benefits. However, the fundamental situation of finished products still requires cautious treatment. Currently, the molten iron output and steel mill operating rates are high, while the actual downstream demand is not strong, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand still exists [1] 原材料 (Raw Materials) - The view is that there may still be a rebound in the near - term, and shorting should be attempted during the rebound [1]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The current oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, but there are signs of improvement in the downstream, and the silicon price is approaching the bottom [3] Group 3 Market Conditions - Industrial silicon spot prices fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8490, up 2.72%, with a single - day reduction of 15774 lots. The current position is 146,500 lots, and the trading volume is 16.036 billion yuan [2] Supply Side - Silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong have stable production starts. Under the pressure of falling prices, the enthusiasm of silicon factories to start production is not high. Some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are planning to start production. The ex - factory quotation of silicon enterprises is slightly higher than the futures price, but there is not enough risk - free arbitrage and hedging space. Traders and basis traders are cautious in purchasing, and the overall inventory remains at a high level [2] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are temporarily stable. N - type dense material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and N - type mixed material at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Silicon material enterprises have a strong mentality of maintaining prices, and the prices are temporarily stable [2] - The price of organic silicon DMC is stable. The market's mainstream opening price is 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Large monomer manufacturers still offer discounts in actual transactions and have a strong willingness to ship. The number of inquiries from downstream enterprises has increased, showing a certain purchasing intention [2] - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is improving. Enterprises are producing normally and actively shipping. Favorable macro news has improved the market trading atmosphere [2] Inventory - On May 14, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,531 lots, an increase of 31 lots, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [2]

铁矿石：短期情绪缓和 矿价估值修复 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铁矿石 供应方面：4 月进口环同比增加。4 月铁矿石进口数量 10313.80 万吨，同比从 3 月的-6.5% 升至 1.3%，进口金额同比从 3 月的-21.5%升至-12.2%。5 月份是外矿发运旺季，主流矿山预计 发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求整体处于历史同期高位区，铁水连续两周维持245+万吨/日(钢联口径)， 从成材表需回落以及出口端预期影响，预期铁水上升高度有限且短期需求端见顶概率偏高，但 当前钢厂盈利率水平较高，后期需等待出口端利空验证，预期下周铁水将保持相对高位。库存 方面：从当前国内高企的需求水平来看，5 月份港口库存水平将保持相对平稳或偏向于去化态 势，但整体评估来看，库存整体处于高位，库存高位阶段 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term. Downstream production cuts and high inventory suppress price rebounds, leading to weak and volatile silicon prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the industrial silicon market declined. Manufacturers' quotes were under pressure, and downstream demand had no new growth. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8230, down 0.60%, with a single - day reduction of 9326 lots. It was shifting to the far - month contract, with a current position of 162,300 lots and a trading volume of 13.666 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, some silicon plants in the South are preparing to start furnaces, and some submerged arc furnaces will start from the end of this month to early next month. Some northern factories are struggling at the cost line. If the futures price drops below 8000, some small and medium - sized silicon plants are expected to cut production [1] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are stable, with continuous news of production cuts and acquisitions. The current quotes for N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material are 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The price of organic silicon DMC is stable, with a market - mainstream opening price reference of 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Shandong's main monomer enterprises slightly lowered prices to boost sales, but downstream inquiry enthusiasm was low, and procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The overall demand release was limited, and market transactions weakened with strong bargaining tendencies. Aluminum alloy ingot prices were temporarily stable, the industry's operating rate decreased, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed pre - holiday orders with insufficient post - holiday stocking willingness [1] Inventory - On May 13th, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,494 lots, a decrease of 603 lots. Although the warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease, the total industrial silicon inventory remained at a high level [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of finished products showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to low demand. Given the current macro and fundamental situation, it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices after a rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near term, and short - selling can be attempted during the rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate - From May 5th to May 11th, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4548 million square meters, with a 13.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.7% year - on - year decrease [2] White Goods - According to the online market monitoring data of Aowei Cloud Network, in April, the year - on - year growth rates of the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners were +1.0%, - 0.8%, +10.8%, +45.0%, and +34.8% respectively [2] Steel Industry - On May 13th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3334 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 87 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 18 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan/ton. On May 13th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was reduced by 20 yuan to 2950 yuan. On May 12th, the release of the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the United States was beneficial at the macro - level, leading to a rebound in many commodity varieties. However, there was still pressure on the domestic demand side. In the industry, due to the still - existing profits of steel mills, the hot - metal output and steel mill operating rates increased last week, but the downstream was gradually entering the off - season of demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel price was under pressure [2]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：中美会谈超预期 短期估值或修复 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 13 日 逻辑：昨日中美贸易会谈结果超预期，双方均对谈判结果给出高度认同，权益市场以及商 品市场（除贵金属）均出现不同程度拉升，夜盘铁矿石大幅冲高触及前期高点。中美贸易回到 正常轨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观致价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -昨日铝价偏强震荡，因中美贸易摩擦担忧缓和，投资者信心修复，铝需求预期提振 [3] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比涨0.3个百分点至61.9%，各板块开工分化，铝板带开工率降0.4个百分点，铝线缆开工率升1.4个百分点，型材开工率降1.5个百分点 [4] -5月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存60.1万吨，较上周四降1.9万吨，较5月6日降3.5万吨，预计本周四有望跌破60万吨 [4] 后期关注因素 -成材关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]