晨报 煤焦 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 27 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货市场延续震荡偏弱走势。现货端，钢厂开始对 焦价进行第 2 轮调降，预计本周内落地。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：钢厂第 2 轮调降焦价 盘面延续弱势 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 观点：宏观扰动减弱，市场情绪回暖，但基本面整体表现仍弱，焦煤 供应持续增加、铁水产量存在见顶回调趋势，短期暂维持震荡偏弱思路对 待，多空均需谨慎。 后期关注/风险因素：关注钢厂高炉开工变化、进口煤通关情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, it is expected to have an oscillating and sorting operation. The price center of building materials has been moving downward. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is rather sluggish, with weak support for prices [4]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to have a short - term strong - side oscillation. The inventory in the East China region has been decreasing, and holders generally have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying has weakened. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruption**: Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown or will shutdown, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3][4]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - **Market Performance**: Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. The view is an oscillating and sorting operation [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. Aluminum Ingots - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the aluminum price moved within a range. In the East China region, due to the decreasing inventory, holders have a strong willingness to hold up prices, but the downstream buying is weakening, and the market transaction is becoming lighter. In the Central China market, the consumption is showing a weakening trend, and the spot premium is under pressure [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: On May 26, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 534,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and 51,000 tons from last Monday. In the short term, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season [4]. - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises in China decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% last week, with different trends in each sector [4]. - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro - expectations, development of geopolitical crises, resumption of production at the mine end, and consumption release [5].

【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.5.26 目录 03 品种数据（成材、煤焦、铁合金） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.5.23 | 2025.5.16 | 价格变动 | | | 2025.5.23 | | 2025.5.16 价格变动 涨跌幅 | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3046 | 3082 | -36 | -1.17% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3180 | 3210 | -30 | -0.93% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2510 | 3189 | 3226 | -37 | -1.15% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3260 | 3290 | -30 | -0.91% | | 铁矿石 | 12509 | 718 | 728 | | -10 -1.37% | 日照港PB粉 | 753 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a complete vacuum, and the expectation of incremental policies is weak. The decline of carbon elements causes the cost support of finished products to collapse, and the overall valuation of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore trading focuses on strong reality in the short term. Although demand has basically peaked with a low decline slope, and supply continues to rise but may remain in year - on - year decline, it is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Last week, iron ore showed relative strength. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils retracted most of the gains from the rebound due to the relaxation of Sino - US tariffs on May 12, and coking coal and coke hit new lows. The decline in carbon element prices allowed blast furnace steel mills to avoid a significant profit compression. Under the strong pressure of Sino - US tariffs, domestic exporters rushed to export to hedge the decline in domestic demand. The 90 - day suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs strengthened the rush - to - export behavior to the US, and the market revised the expectation of export decline. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discount, and inventory reduction, showing relative strength [2]. Supply - Last week, the shipment of foreign iron ore rebounded significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the year - on - year decline in overall foreign ore shipments tended to narrow. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward shipment trend, with the marginal support of the supply side weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has declined for two consecutive weeks, with this period at 243.6 (-1.77) and the decline rate expanding. Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the molten iron output will decline from a high level with a low downward slope, having a small short - term impact on prices [3]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in early June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to use range - bound operations and the 9 - 1 positive spread strategy. The price range of the i2509 contract is 715 - 745 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 97 - 101 US dollars/ton [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests treating the situation with a bearish bias in a volatile market [2][3] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report recommends short - selling on rebounds [4] 3) Summary Based on Related Content - **Steel Production Data**: Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.32%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 77.18%, a rise of 1.98 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 59.5%, a rise of 2.93 percentage points. In mid - May, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.199 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period; the steel inventory was 16.35 million tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous ten - day period and a decrease of 2.1% from the same ten - day period last month [3] - **Market Situation**: Last week, the price of finished steel fluctuated downward with a lower price center. The macro - environment was relatively stable, and the varieties continued to trade based on their own fundamentals. Currently, steel mills have a good profitability rate, and the enterprise operating rate and pig iron output are at relatively high levels, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly and is likely to decline further after entering the seasonal off - season, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policies and downstream demand conditions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market currently faces oversupply, weak demand, high inventory levels, and the silicon price continues to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Last week, the prices of some grades of industrial silicon in the market were weak, downstream purchasing was relatively active, and the situation of point - price transactions improved. The ex - factory price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8500 - 8800 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9300 - 9700 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main 2507 contract of industrial silicon last Friday was 7915 yuan, an increase of 0.25% or 20 yuan, with a single - day reduction of 5306 lots [1] Supply Side - Northern large factories will continue to resume production in the near future. It is expected that the eastern production area will gradually resume production to 40 submerged arc furnaces. Some factories in the south have prepared for furnace opening, and the start - up in the southwest is gradually increasing. The market is digesting the expected increase in supply during the wet season in advance, and the supply side is abundant [1] Demand Side - The three major downstream industries have increased the intensity of production reduction and shutdown, and the marginal demand continues to weaken, making it difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The price of polysilicon is weakly stable, crystal - pulling factories purchase on demand with low enthusiasm and keep pressing prices. Leading silicon material enterprises strengthen price - stabilizing strategies, but the transaction prices are mostly close to the cost line and the trading scale is limited. The price of organic silicon is stable with limited market fluctuations, relying mainly on early - month orders, and the purchasing willingness is weak. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable, the general start - up rate of die - casting enterprises is low, the overall demand enters the off - season, and the purchasing willingness is insufficient [1] Inventory - On May 23, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 65,568 lots, an increase of 270 lots, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]

从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：淡旺季交替 成本端扰动支撑价格 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 2025 年 5 月 26 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Despite reduced macro disturbances and improved market sentiment, the overall performance of coking coal remains weak due to continuous increase in supply and a potential peak - to - decline trend in hot metal production. Prices are currently treated as a rebound with a short - bias [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, with prices hitting new lows. The spot market saw steel mills complete the first round of price cuts on coke prices, and there is an expectation of further cuts, indicating a poor coking coal and coke fundamentals [2][3] Supply Side - Upstream coking coal inventories at coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. Although production decreased last week due to major mine overhauls in Shanxi and Anhui and tightened safety in Shanxi, coal production is expected to recover after the overhauls. After the suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance during the May Day holiday, the clearance volume has rebounded, and port inventories have increased again, resulting in an overall sufficient supply of coking coal [3] Demand Side - The overall demand is currently at a high level but is expected to decline in June. The overall profitability rate of steel mills is nearly 60%, and production enthusiasm is relatively high, with a daily average hot metal output of 243.6 thousand tons last week. However, the supply surplus of coking coal and coke is still prominent despite the high hot metal output [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will be affected by 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also have production affected [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [3] Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US House of Representatives passed Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased, which boosted the dollar [2] - As of Thursday this week, the national alumina operating capacity increased, and the weekly start - up rate rose by 0.99 percentage points to 78.01% [3] - The impact of the Guinea event on the supply of bauxite needs to be evaluated, which may support the price of bauxite and the cost of alumina in the short - term [2][3][4] - As of May 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas decreased by 28,000 tons compared with Monday and 24,000 tons compared with last Thursday. There is an expectation of continued de - stocking next week, and the next two weeks are a critical stage [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro disturbances have weakened and market sentiment has warmed up, but the overall supply - demand situation of coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the tendency of hot metal production to peak and decline, the prices are temporarily treated as bearish on rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, coal and coke futures prices have continuously hit new lows. The spot market saw the first round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week, and there are expectations of further cuts. The market is in a weak - running trend, indicating a poor fundamental situation for coal and coke [3]. Supply Side - Upstream coking coal inventories at coal mines and coal washing plants are still high, with continuous inventory accumulation in recent weeks. This week, production decreased due to the maintenance of major mines in Changzhi, Shanxi and Anhui, and safety measures were tightened in Liulin, leading to production cuts in the main production areas of Shanxi. However, after the maintenance of major mines ends, raw coal production is expected to recover. Mongolian coal resumed high - level customs clearance after the May Day holiday, and port inventories have increased again. Overall, coking coal supply remains sufficient [3]. Demand Side - The overall demand is currently at a high level but there are expectations of production cuts in June. Currently, the overall profitability rate of steel mills is nearly 60%, and their production enthusiasm is relatively high. This week, the daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.436 million tons. Despite the high hot metal output driving raw material demand, coal and coke prices are still in a downward trend, indicating a prominent problem of oversupply [3].