研究报告 铜周报 美联储降息预期升温，沪铜或震荡运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 摘要： 【基本面分析】 美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%—4.50%之间不变。这一决定 符合市场预期，也是美联储连续第 4 次决定维持利率不变。尽管 美联储本次会议决定维持利率不变，但市场对未来降息的预期却 有所升温。铜冶炼加工费仍处于历史低位，精炼铜产量继续保持 快速增长。铜材产量同比增长，汽车产量持续保持同比增长，铜 消费仍然强劲。沪铜库存小幅下降，库存水平处于近年来较低位。 LME 铜库存继续下降，注销仓单占比大幅下降。 【后市展望】 铜价或以震荡趋势为主。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【风险提示】 美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜供需变化 超预期。 *特别 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - On June 20, the three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3359.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.47% to 10005.03 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.84% to 2009.89 points. There were more falling sectors than rising ones [2]. - Last week, stock index futures closed down. The decline of small and medium - cap varieties was significantly greater than that of large - cap blue - chips. The CSI 300 futures (IF2506) fell 0.19%, the SSE 50 futures (IH2506) rose 0.38%, the CSI 500 futures (IC2506) dropped 1.42%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM2506) declined 1.14% [2][3]. - Last week, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.71%, the 10 - year rose 0.21%, the 5 - year rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year rose 0.09% [4]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9662.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 7915.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1746.7 billion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3%, while local revenue increased by 1.9%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11295.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The inter - connection of the fast payment systems between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong was launched, and cross - border payment services were launched in Shenzhen on June 22. The initial participating institutions included major banks in the mainland and Hong Kong [10]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. This week, there are 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. This week, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature [11]. - On June 21, US President Trump claimed that the US had attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities. US B - 2 bombers were reported to be involved, and Iran had no response [15]. - On June 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, remaining stable compared to the previous period [15]. - In the first five months of this year, the balance of household time deposits increased monthly, reaching 119.34 trillion yuan in May. The proportion of household time deposits reached a record high in May [15]. Group 3: Valuation Analysis - As of June 20, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.83 times with a quantile of 60%, and the PB was 1.34 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.08 times with a quantile of 78.04%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.87 times with a quantile of 42.35%, and the PB was 2.04 times [16][17]. Group 4: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. Group 5: Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the A - share market continued its weak and volatile pattern. External pressure increased due to the Fed's hawkish stance and the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, while internal momentum was insufficient due to the policy vacuum and doubts about economic recovery [27]. - In the short term, the A - share index futures are difficult to break the oscillation pattern. The strategy should be "box threshold operation + strict stop - loss", and maintain a neutral position to wait for policy or geopolitical signals [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the output of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for the fourth consecutive week, the social inventory decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. Currently, both supply and demand of steel products are weakening, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [5][33] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [6][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - As of June 20, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price in Tianjin was 3,220 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous trading day [10] Important Market Information - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9.6623 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the national tax revenue was 7.9156 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; the non-tax revenue was 1.7467 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [15] Supply - Side Situation - As of June 20, 2025, 247 steel mills had a blast furnace operating rate of 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 7.36%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.24 million tons [5][32] - On June 20, Tangshan steel mills received a notice that from June 21 - 30, they would implement emission reduction measures, including a 30% reduction in sintering machine production, adjusted converter production rhythms, and blast furnaces adjusting production loads according to the converter rhythm [31][32] Demand - Side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Inventory - Side Situation - Last week, the rebar factory inventory decreased for the fourth consecutive week, and the social inventory decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week [5][33] Fundamental Analysis - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 23 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 3 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 31 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 68 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 49 yuan/ton [32] 后市展望 - Currently, both supply and demand of steel products are weakening, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [5][33] Operation Strategy - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [6][34]

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Methanol is likely to run strongly due to geopolitical tensions, and long - position operations should be considered [10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Trend Review - From last Monday to Thursday, methanol futures fluctuated slightly higher. On Friday, due to the sudden attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, the geopolitical situation became extremely tense, and methanol futures rose sharply. By the Friday afternoon close, the methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,389 yuan/ton, up 5.43% from the previous week. In the spot market, the port methanol market price continued to be strong, and the inland market rose slightly [14] Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production continued to rise slightly. The output was 1,982,656 tons, an increase of 572 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [16] - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 12, 2025, the olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at 84.26%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde had different changes [19][20] - **Inventory**: As of June 11, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 379,100 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 302,100 tons, an increase of 39,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 15.22%. The port sample inventory was 652,200 tons, an increase of 71,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 12.22% [22][27] - **Profit**: As of June 12, the profits of most methanol production enterprises improved, with the profit of Hebei coke - oven gas to methanol averaging 122 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.46%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol full - cost was 32.08 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 147.72%. However, the average profit of southwest natural gas to methanol was - 254 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.26% [29] Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 2.0117 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.27%, an increase from last week [35] - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the olefin industry may see a decline in the start - up rate; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde may decline; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to change little [36][37][38] - **Inventory**: It is expected that the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises will be 351,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. Port methanol inventory may decline due to a significant reduction in the unloading of visible foreign vessels [38][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Looking ahead, there are uncertainties in the macro - aspect. The supply side of rubber is supported to some extent by weather, but the demand side has not improved significantly, and there is potential supply pressure in the future. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Key factors to focus on include geopolitical impacts, weather disturbances in rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, progress of zero - tariff policies, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][90] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2509 ranged from 13,565 to 14,000 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of June 13, 2025, it was reported at 13,875 yuan/ton, up 225 points or 1.65% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of June 13, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,310 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two shrank slightly. As of June 13, 2025, the basis was maintained at 25 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton less than last week [27] Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On June 13, local time, the "Israel - Iran conflict" broke out, causing a shock in the global market. Crude oil prices soared by more than 13% and then declined, safe - haven assets such as gold rose significantly, and global stock markets fell collectively [34] - US Economic Data: In May, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year; the PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year; the initial jobless claims last week were 248,000, the highest since October 5, 2024 [35][36] - Global Economic Outlook: The World Bank lowered the global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, and Fitch adjusted the global sovereign rating outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" [36][37] - Sino - US Economic and Trade: From June 9 to 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, achieving new progress in resolving each other's economic and trade concerns [37] - China's Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. From January to May, the export of China's equipment manufacturing products reached 6.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [38] - China's Automobile Market: In May, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. The export of automobiles in May was 551,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 2.49 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [39][40] Supply - Side Situation - As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing area increased significantly compared with the previous month; the production in China's main producing area increased significantly; the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India's main producing areas decreased slightly compared with the previous month; the production in Thailand's main producing area decreased significantly compared with the previous month. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous month [44] - As of April 30, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; the cumulative production was 2.947 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [48][52] - As of April 30, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35% [57] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 12, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 77.98%, an increase of 4.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 61.24%, a decrease of 2.23% from last week [59] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%; the monthly sales volume was 2.5896 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18% [63][66] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales volume was 87,667, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [71] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 102.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 57.39 million, a month - on - month decrease of 7.87% [74][80] Inventory - Side Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 193,070 tons, 460 tons less than last week [88] - As of June 8, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.275 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.4%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 762,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 513,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [88] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons or 0.67% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decrease of 0.54% [88] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, but recent weather in the main producing areas has affected rubber tapping, and rubber imports have increased significantly [89] - Demand: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises rebounded slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The all - steel tire inventory decreased, and the semi - steel tire inventory increased. The automobile market showed good performance in May, with a significant increase in export growth, while heavy - truck sales were average [89] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [89] 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week, with a slight overall increase. Considering the macro and fundamental aspects, it is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term, and key factors need to be closely monitored [90] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range - bound operations [9][91]

摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 0.44%。 基本面：据中钢协数据，6 月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业 共生产粗钢 2159 万吨，平均日产 215.9 万吨，日产环比增 长 3.2%。据我的钢铁网数据，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.41%， 环比减少 0.15%，同比增加 1.36%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.58%，环比减少 0.07%，同比增加 1.05%；钢厂盈利率 58.44%，环比减少 0.43%，同比增加 8.66%；日均铁水产量 241.61 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢产量、厂库连续第三周减少，社 库连续第十四周减少，表需连续第二周减少。目前进入需求 淡季，钢材供需双双走弱，钢价中期预计以震荡为主。 交易策略：建议观望 螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend [2][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend, ranging from around 19,925 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,420 yuan/ton [6] - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures fluctuated with a slightly stronger trend, ranging from 2,445 - 2,528 US dollars/ton [10] 2. Spot Analysis - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 20,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,665 yuan/ton, 20,795 yuan/ton, 20,695 yuan/ton, and 20,650 yuan/ton respectively [13] - As of June 13, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum premium/discount was maintained at around a discount of 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [13] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In May 2025, the domestic alumina in - production capacity was 89.5 million tons, the total capacity was 112.42 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.61%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [19] - As of June 5, 2025, the total domestic inventory was 55,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in Lianyungang was 0 tons, in Bayuquan was 34,000 tons, and in Qingdao Port was 21,000 tons. The total domestic inventory was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years [19] - As of May 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.139 million tons, the total capacity was 45.202 million tons, and the operating rate was 97.65%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [19] 4. Inventory Situation - As of June 13, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,001 tons, a decrease of 8,164 tons from the previous week [28] - As of June 12, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 355,600 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.45% [28] - As of June 12, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 426,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 45,000 tons, in Wuxi was 109,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 13,000 tons, in Foshan was 182,000 tons, in Tianjin was 19,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 48,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 5,000 tons [28] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The latest US economic data shows that inflation pressure is more moderate than expected, while the labor market may be deteriorating, and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates is rising [34] - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The national producer price index for industrial products decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [34] - The operating rate of alumina enterprises has increased slightly, and the alumina inventory has gradually recovered but remains at a low level. The electrolytic aluminum capacity continues the slow growth trend. The Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]