Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - For L and PP, the rating is neutral [4]. 2. Core View - The downstream demand for polyolefins is still slowly increasing, and both PE and PP are under pressure. The short - term trends of PE and PP are mainly influenced by the cost side. The supply of both is under pressure, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PE is in short - term shock consolidation, and the price of PP continues to be weak [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,968 yuan/ton (-41), PP main contract at 6,651 yuan/ton (-34). LL North China spot was 6,950 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 7,060 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,580 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis was -18 yuan/ton (+31), LL East China basis 92 yuan/ton (+41), PP East China basis -71 yuan/ton (+4) [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 80.9% (-0.6%), PP开工率 was 77.1% (+1.1%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 343.2 yuan/ton (-39.1), PP oil - based production profit was -346.8 yuan/ton (-39.1), PDH - based PP production profit was 45.6 yuan/ton (-8.9) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 69.8 yuan/ton (+86.1), PP import profit was -294.7 yuan/ton (+0.7), PP export profit was -21.7 dollars/ton (-5.1) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 49.5% (+2.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 51.3% (-1.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.6% (+0.2%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, the supply surplus expectation is strengthened, and the demand is expected to remain weak. The cost support of PE is weakened. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is still limited. The PE price is in short - term shock consolidation, and the upside space may be limited [3]. - **PP**: The oil - based cost support is weakened, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The supply pressure continues, and the demand is slowly recovering. The price of PP continues to be weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is favorable due to continued inventory depletion, consumption exceeding expectations, and slower - than - expected resumption of production at previously shut - down mines, providing some support to the market. However, attention should be paid to consumption and inventory inflection points. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, causing the market to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 83,120 yuan/ton and closed at 83,400 yuan/ton, with a 1.19% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 829,117 lots, and the open interest was 532,871 lots (506,882 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 3,780 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 27,641 lots, a change of 116 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 - 81,800 yuan/ton, a change of 850 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,300 - 78,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 850 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 985 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The downstream material factory's operating rate is rising, and demand supports spot transactions. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to have growth potential. The power market (new energy vehicles) and the energy - storage market are both booming [2]. - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene concentrate ended. The auction item was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene concentrate from Wodgina, with an actual transaction price of 7,058 yuan/ton (tax - included, self - pick - up from Zhenjiang Port) [2]. Inventory Situation - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons. The production from spodumene and mica decreased slightly, while the production from salt - lakes and recycling increased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons. The inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate links increased slightly. Recent consumption has strongly supported inventory depletion [3]. Strategy - Short - term: It is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to inventory and consumption inflection points and choose the opportunity to sell hedging at high prices. It is expected that the willingness of upstream to hedge will increase when the price reaches 85,000 yuan/ton [4]. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, there are no relevant strategies provided [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With good rapeseed production in Canada and good progress in soybean planting in Brazil, the overall supply is expected to remain loose in the future [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of -14 yuan or -0.16% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,168.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,529.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P01 - 138.00, a change of +14.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan/ton or +0.72%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 172.00, a change of +24.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 371.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil production was 425,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.72%. Rapeseed meal production was 589,724 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.52% and a year - on - year increase of 8.32%. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season was 1,875,333 tons, rapeseed oil production was 792,629 tons, and rapeseed meal production was 1,104,666 tons [2] - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast of 21.94 million tons. The estimated first - crop corn production is 346,000 tons, higher than the September forecast of 340,000 tons. The estimated wheat production is 275,000 tons, higher than the previous month's forecast of 268,000 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, with a short - term recommendation of waiting and observing. There are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Concerns about tariffs have eased, and CP prices continued to decline in November. The 11 - month CP price announced by Saudi Aramco is slightly higher than expected, and the arrival cost is still supported. The PG market has shown a volatile and slightly stronger trend after stabilizing from the bottom. The suspension of the 24% tariff for another year has temporarily alleviated concerns in the LPG market. Currently, market contradictions are limited, and the market may continue to operate within a range [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On October 30, regional prices varied: Shandong market was 4220 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market was 3630 - 4030 yuan/ton; North China market was 4100 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market was 4150 - 4260 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market was 4550 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market was 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton; South China market was 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the arrival price of frozen propane in East China was 555 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 540 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton. In South China, propane was 550 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 535 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton [1] - The 11 - month CP price announced by Saudi Aramco: propane was 475 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month, and butane was 460 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton from the previous month [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and BR is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic inventory has further declined since early October due to the temporary slowdown of domestic arrivals and the rebound of downstream tire operating rates, leading to a faster outbound rate than the inbound rate at ports. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, driving the continuous rebound of downstream tire operating rates. The cost - side support of natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase during the peak season. The overall domestic supply and demand may show a pattern of strong growth on both sides. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and there is a demand for price rebound under a warm macro - environment. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, there are still many devices under maintenance, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The demand for domestic snow tires has increased, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom support for BR prices, but the weak upstream butadiene prices drag down the cost [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 225 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of + 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,930 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,760 US dollars/ton, a change of - 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] - **Natural rubber imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thai natural rubber exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] - **Automobile production and sales**: In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - **Rubber tire exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] - **EU passenger car market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the RU basis was - 600 yuan/ton (+ 275), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 470 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,136 yuan/ton (- 3,135.67), the NR basis was 727.00 yuan/ton (+ 58.00); the price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), the mixed rubber was 14,930 yuan/ton (- 220), the 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,870 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,730 yuan/ton (- 220) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.99 Thai baht/kg (- 0.83), the price of Thai glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.05), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 2.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45) [5] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+ 2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spread**: On October 30, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Shandong private butadiene rubber was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2,003 yuan/ton (- 49) [6] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.77% (- 4.93%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities for the monthly spread. For BR, maintain a neutral stance [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal and corn markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamentals of soybean meal have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are still at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Future focus should be on the Sino - US negotiations and the sowing situation of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] - For corn, on the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain was relatively low due to the previous decline in the price of corn at the northern ports, but it has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of spoiled grain has significantly decreased, and the pace of selling damp grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the channel inventory, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise inventory, and feed enterprise inventory are all at a low level, but the stocking willingness is low [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2994 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.84% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.18% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 16, down 25 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 54, down 15 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 44, down 15 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 209, up 2 from the previous day [1] - Argentina: As of the week of October 22, Argentine farmers sold 264,800 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 3.83441 million tons. The domestic oil mills purchased 224,800 tons, and the export industry purchased 40,000 tons. They also sold 843,600 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 407,350 tons. The domestic oil mills purchased 816,800 tons, and the export industry purchased 26,800 tons [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2419 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 19, down 5 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 131, up 8 from the previous day [3] - Brazil: As of last Saturday, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve as the spot price center moves up slightly, with increased northwest开工 in the near term and southwest production cuts starting at the end of October. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range, and for the dry - season contracts, it's advisable to go long at low prices [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although the production has started to decrease recently and is expected to decline in November, the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it's suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. In the short - term, it's recommended to operate within a range [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9145 yuan/ton and closed at 9155 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 227,764 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,410 lots, an increase of 72 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton; 99 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions increased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon also rose slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 558,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 124,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including non - registered warehouse receipts and spot inventory) was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Consumption**: According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. Under the background of gradually released supply - side pressure and insufficient demand - side support, the game between upstream and downstream markets will intensify, and the domestic silicone DMC price will still be under pressure and decline slightly [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, go long at low prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,900 yuan/ton and closed at 54,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 126,052 lots (118,430 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 223,914 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [4]. - **Inventory and Production**: The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%; the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and it is expected to decline in November due to significant production cuts in the southwest region [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan/piece); the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece; the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece [5]. - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.32 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W; PERC210mm components were 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W; N - type 182mm components were 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W; N - type 210mm components were 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options operations are provided [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short the spread when the price difference is high; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of propylene is continuously abundant due to the restart of the PDH unit of Lihuayi Weiyuan and the increased load of previously restarted units, and the overall propylene start - up rate has increased. The demand side is mainly rigid demand, and there is no obvious improvement. The cost support of propylene has weakened as crude oil and propane prices are weak. The current supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the start - up and shutdown status of PDH units [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6078 yuan/ton (- 127), the spot price in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (- 60), the spot price in North China is 5940 yuan/ton (- 45), the basis in East China is - 78 yuan/ton (+ 67), the basis in North China is - 138 yuan/ton (+ 9). The operating rate is 75% (+ 1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 174 US dollars/ton (- 3), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 97 US dollars/ton (- 1), the import profit is - 265 yuan/ton (- 14), and the in - plant inventory is 46260 tons (+ 4770) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 43% (+ 2.00%), and the production profit is 40 yuan/ton (+ 45); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 69% (+ 1%), and the production profit is - 488 yuan/ton (- 68); the operating rate of n - butanol is 84% (- 2%), and the production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (+ 28); the operating rate of octanol is 89% (+ 1%), and the production profit is - 349 yuan/ton (+ 32); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 67% (- 7%), and the production profit is 765 yuan/ton (+ 18); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 79% (+ 0%), and the production profit is - 347 yuan/ton (+ 47); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 78% (+ 0%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: The restart of the PDH unit of Lihuayi Weiyuan and the increased load of previously restarted units have led to an increase in the operating rate of PDH units and the overall propylene operating rate. The supply of propylene is continuously abundant. Attention should be paid to the external procurement demand brought by the shutdown of Binhua's 600,000 - ton PDH unit [2] - **Demand side**: The price of propylene has weakened, and downstream replenishment is cautious, mainly with rigid demand. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of PP powder has increased significantly due to the commissioning of the third - phase PP powder unit of Zhongjing. The operating rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly due to short - term maintenance of some units and load reduction of others. The operating rate of propylene oxide has increased slightly [2] - **Cost side**: Crude oil has started to decline with the expected increase in production by OPEC +, and the official price of Saudi CP propane has continued to fall to 475 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The cost support of propylene has weakened [2] 3.3 Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 short the spread when the price difference is high; Inter - variety: None [3] 3.4 Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] 3.5 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [17][19][24] 3.6 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes figures such as the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 3.7 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.8 Propylene Inventory - The report includes figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] Report's Core View - The asphalt fundamentals remain weak, and the market shows a weak oscillating trend. The weakening of rigid demand in northern provinces seasonally suppresses market sentiment, and there is insufficient upward drive in the market [1] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 30, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3254 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 196,796 lots, up 770 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 160,811 lots, down 12,955 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3406 - 4750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3200 - 3620 yuan/ton; South China 3370 - 3580 yuan/ton; East China 3410 - 3500 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in North China decreased, while that in South China increased slightly, and prices in other regions remained relatively stable [1] - After the successful conclusion of China - US trade negotiations, macro risks have weakened. However, due to the weakening fundamentals of crude oil prices, the cost - driving effect on asphalt is limited [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with short - term observation as the main strategy - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market's supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure and long - term attention on US cotton production and export. In China, short - term cotton price upward space is limited, but long - term prospects are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle. Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] - The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance with loose supply and weak demand. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,600 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang factory price was 14,658 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,843 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [1] - India's cotton production is expected to increase to 530 - 570 million tons, and new cotton arrivals are increasing [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market supply - demand will be loose, with short - term external markets under pressure. Domestically, old - season cotton inventory is low, but new cotton supply is increasing. Short - term cotton price upward space is limited, and long - term prospects are optimistic [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term, the cotton price may test the previous low, and long - term, it can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5472 yuan/ton yesterday, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5720 yuan/ton [3] - Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of October crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, up 0.3% year - on - year, and produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, up 1.25% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production may decline in the short term, but long - term rebound is restricted. In China, short - term sugar price rebound space is limited, and the lower space is also restricted [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Pay attention to whether 5400 can form a phased support [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2601 contract closed at 5224 yuan/ton yesterday, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp was 4990 yuan/ton [5] - Imported wood pulp spot market prices were basically stable, with only individual fluctuations [6] Market Analysis - Supply is loose, with overseas production reduction plans having limited impact and domestic imports increasing. Demand is weak both globally and in China, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the peak season [7]