Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Agricultural demand for urea is steadily rising as downstream agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation continue, but industrial demand is weakening with declining capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and low - level operation of melamine [2] - Urea production is at a high level with few planned device overhauls, so supply pressure is large. However, due to the release of agricultural demand, factory pre - sales orders are increasing and enterprise inventories are decreasing [2] - In terms of exports, there is still port - collection demand, but the new export quota is unclear, and the export benefits are gradually weakening. Port inventories have increased significantly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report may use figures such as the Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, and Henan main - continuous basis to analyze the urea basis structure, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report likely uses figures on urea weekly production and urea device overhaul loss volume to analyze urea production, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report may analyze urea production profit and operating rate through figures including production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][21][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The report may analyze urea offshore price and export profit using figures such as the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][25][30] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report may analyze urea downstream operation and orders through figures including compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pre - order days of urea enterprises, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report may analyze urea inventory and warehouse receipts using figures such as upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][47][50]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 铝期货方面：2025-06-26日沪铝主力合约开于20340元/吨，收于20445元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨150元/ 吨，涨幅0.74%，最高价达20455元/吨，最低价达到20325元/吨。全天交易日成交152410手，较上一交易日增 加35033手，全天交易日持仓260549手，较上一交易日增加6534手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-26，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.3万吨。截止2025-06-26，LME铝库存336900 吨，较前一交易日减少1000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-26 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3095元/吨，山东价格录得3095元/吨，广西价格录得 3190元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-06-26氧化铝主力合约开于2915元/吨，收于2948元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨42元/ 吨，涨幅1.45%，最高价达到2952元/吨，最低价为2915元/吨。全天交易日成交325494手，较上一交易日增加 92693手，全天交易日持仓290722手，较上一交易日增加6178手。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-27 养殖端控量，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14040元/吨，较前交易日变动+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.83元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+790，较前交易日变动+50；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1070，较前交易日变动+60；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.76元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09-280，较前交易日变动+50。 据农业农村部监测，6月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.40，比昨天下降0.17个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.38，比昨天下降0.19个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.31元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；牛肉63.42 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉59.34元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.28元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.42 元/公斤，比昨天上升2.5%。 市场分析 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-27 现货价格整体下调，豆粕维持弱势 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2936元/吨，较前日变动-57元/吨，幅度-1.90%；菜粕2509合约2550元/吨，较前 日变动-38元/吨，幅度-1.47%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-56， 较前日变动+27；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-146，较前日变动+27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌-50元/吨，现货基差M09-136，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2540 元/吨，较前日变动-50元/吨，现货基差RM09-10，较前日变动-12。 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2508合约2378元/吨，较前日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.04%；玉米淀粉2508合约2728元/吨， 较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C08+2，较前日变动-1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2750元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-27 伊朗6月高硫燃料油发货量小幅增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3019元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.19%，报3693 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变 数，原油和燃料油市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段，FU、LU盘面窄幅波动为主。 高硫燃料油方面，近日月差结构明显转弱，反映现货端相对充裕，下游炼厂端利润的疲软制约了采购需求。供应 方面，伊朗6月高硫燃料油供应并未受到地缘冲突的显著影响。参考船期数据，伊朗6月份高硫燃料油发货量预计 为105万吨，环比增加8万吨，同比减少9万吨。整体来看，地缘扰动结束后高硫燃料油自身市场驱动有限，夏季发 电端消费受到季节性与天然气替代的提振。此外，国内炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调对炼厂燃料油需求存在边际利好， 但裂解价差需要进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结构持稳运行。最新数据显示5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位，此外新 加坡5月份船燃销量显著增长，下游船燃需求短期表现良好，对市场存在支撑。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Industrial silicon - Interval operation, upstream sell - hedge on rallies; Polysilicon - Neutral [2][8] - Inter - month spread: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Cross - variety: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][8] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are relatively strong, affected by the rising sentiment of coking coal and the news of production cuts by a leading northwest enterprise. However, with increasing supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited [1][2]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory, increasing supply after southwest restart, and possible decline in consumption. The market is easily affected by capital sentiment and policy disturbances [3][6]. Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7600 yuan/ton and closed at 7720 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 321342 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 27 was 53234 lots, a decrease of 29 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas on June 26 was 54.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from the previous week. The inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 12.8 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 41.4 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons [1]. - The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the price was temporarily stable, with mainly rigid - demand transactions [1]. Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On June 26, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures rebounded significantly, opening at 30745 yuan/ton and closing at 31715 yuan/ton, a 3.46% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 77132 lots, and the trading volume was 225035 lots [3]. - Spot prices remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, with the polysilicon inventory at 27.00 tons, a 3.05% increase, and the silicon wafer inventory at 20.11GW, a 7.30% increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 23600.00 tons, a decrease of 3.67%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.44GW, an increase of 4.10% [3]. Market Analysis - Silicon Wafer and Battery - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.23 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.02 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery was 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Factors to Monitor - The resumption of production and new capacity commissioning in the northwest and southwest regions [4]. - Changes in the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises [4]. - Policy disturbances [4]. - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4]. - The operating rate of silicone enterprises [4]. - The impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [8]. - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [8]. - The impact of capital sentiment [8]. - The impact of policy disturbances [8].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-27 人民币强势升破7.16，香港推数字资产新政 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下达。中国央行公 开市场6月26日净投放3,058亿元，创4月30日来最高。香港特区政府发表《香港数字资产发展政策宣言2.0》，将推 动黄金等贵金属、有色金属、新能源代币化。在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.16，创逾7个月新高。香港金管 局两年来首次买入港元以维护联系汇率。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可 能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经 贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6 月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性。美国暂缓关税的截止日逼近，欧盟准 ...

盘面延续震荡，现货观望情绪明显 市场分析 1、6月26日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3563元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨7元/吨，跌幅 0.02%；持仓243021手，环比下降8558手，成交230736手，环比下降51477手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3920—4086元/吨；山东，3650—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3700—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格持续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格暂时持稳。沥青盘面则延续震荡态势，波动率随地 缘局势缓和显著下滑。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后， 炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性增强，或带动沥青产能利用率增加。与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下， 沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-27 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - Geopolitical tensions have significantly eased, weakening the cost - side support for polyolefins, and trading has returned to fundamentals. During the off - season, consumption is weak. The overall operating load of PE downstream agricultural film is at a low level. The operating rate of packaging film is lower than the same period, the operating rate of plastic weaving has decreased, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased. The new 500,000 - ton/year PP production capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical has been successfully put into operation. Currently, there are many short - stop maintenance devices, which are expected to resume operation one after another in the future. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [2] Summary According to the Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of the plastic futures main contract and the PP futures main contract, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%). PE oil - based production profit is 363.4 yuan/ton (- 95.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (- 95.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is 77.7 yuan/ton (+ 79.2) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report analyzes the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 61.4 yuan/ton (- 55.2), PP import profit is - 297.8 yuan/ton (+ 41.0), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+ 20.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of middle - stream traders has decreased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The contraction of the US Q1 GDP for the first time in three years has further strengthened market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a full - scale rise in the three major US stock indexes [2]. - China will issue the third batch of trade - in funds in July, which is expected to inject new impetus into domestic demand recovery in the second half of the year [2]. - After three consecutive days of strong rallies, A - shares' sentiment indicators are overheated, and the stock index is adjusting. It is expected that the index still has upward momentum after consolidation, with a rising price center, and the sector market will continue to diverge [2]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US economy is showing a decline. The US Q1 real GDP final annualized quarter - on - quarter decline was 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the first contraction in three years. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014, far exceeding the expected 8.5%. Domestically, China will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share's three major indexes fluctuated downward. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22% to close at 3448.45 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most sector indexes declined. Bank, communication, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while automobile, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and beauty care industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, the latest economic data significantly boosted market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, and the three major US stock indexes rose collectively [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the IM basis continued to repair slightly. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM decreased [1]. Strategy - The contraction of the US Q1 GDP has further strengthened market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the three major US stock indexes. China's issuance of the third batch of trade - in funds in July is expected to boost domestic demand in the second half of the year. After three consecutive days of rallies, A - shares are adjusting due to overheated sentiment, but are expected to rise after consolidation, with a rising price center and continued sector divergence [2]. Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [4][6][7]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On June 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3448.45, down 0.22%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10343.48, down 0.48%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2114.43, down 0.66%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3946.02, down 0.35%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2738.47, up 1.17%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5838.25, down 0.41%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6247.79, down 0.45% [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF decreased by 38,640 to 84,890, and the open interest decreased by 10,070 to 243,932 [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different changes. For example, the basis of IM continued to repair slightly, with the current - month contract basis rising by 1.17 to - 35.99 [33]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IM increased by 4.80 to - 55.20 [45].