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尿素日报:新单交投清淡-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:46
Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Intertemporal: On hold [3] - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the price increase this week following the simultaneous rise in futures and spot prices last week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export sentiment still affects urea, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export dynamics and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China and the national off-season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On October 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,627 yuan/ton (-17). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,580 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was -27 yuan/ton (+17), in Henan was -47 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu was -37 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Urea Production - As of October 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (-75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (-100,000 tons) [1] Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 872 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Urea exports in September were 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1, with the bid closing on October 15 and the offer validity period until October 30. The latest shipping date is December 10, and a total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast [2] Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - As of October 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+1.68%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.53 days (+0.12) [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The national high inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week [2]
氯碱日报:碱弱氯强,烧碱累库加剧悲观氛围-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market rebounds with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant due to the recovery of some maintenance enterprises and the mass - production of new capacities. The demand shows increased downstream开工 but average trading atmosphere. The export has growth potential but may be affected by anti - dumping investigations. The PVC futures are under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases with new capacities and the recovery of some enterprises. The demand is affected by environmental control in the alumina sector and may turn weak in the non - aluminum off - season. However, the expected alumina plant construction in Guangxi may support the price [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of PVC futures main contract is 4766 yuan/ton (- 9), the East China basis is - 86 yuan/ton (+ 49), and the South China basis is - 6 yuan/ton (+ 49) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4680 yuan/ton (+ 40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+ 40) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 723 yuan/ton (- 10), and the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 560 yuan/ton (- 8). The PVC export profit is - 5.9 dollars/ton (- 1.3) [1]. - **Inventory and Operation**: The PVC factory inventory is 33.4 tons (- 2.7), the social inventory is 55.5 tons (- 0.2), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.47% (+ 4.82%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 78.50% (- 0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.09% (+ 3.35%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 63.5 tons (+ 8.0) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of SH main contract is 2317 yuan/ton (- 44), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 183 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1250 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+ 0). The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 1005.8 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 163.78 yuan/ton (+ 30.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1084.24 yuan/ton (+ 50.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.26 tons (+ 2.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.73 tons (+ 0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.30% (+ 3.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operation**: The alumina operation rate is 86.27% (+ 0.05%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 68.06% (+ 0.75%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.66% (+ 1.05%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Some maintenance enterprises resume production, and new capacities are gradually put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate increases, but the trading atmosphere is average. The social inventory shows a slight decline, but the absolute value is high. The export volume in September is 34.64 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53%. The cumulative export volume is 292.15 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50.58% [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The new capacity of Tianjin Bohua is in full production, and the 10 - ton capacity of Tangshan Sanyou is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The operation rate rebounds [3]. - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the unloading efficiency decreases. The alumina operation in Hebei is slightly reduced due to environmental control and is planned to resume on October 31. The non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and may turn weak in the off - season [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely with the macro - sentiment. - Inter - delivery: Reverse arbitrage for V01 - 05 when the price is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see [5].
化工日报:本周华东主港MEG延续累库-20251031
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:45
Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot and futures prices of ethylene glycol (EG) decreased, with the EG main - contract closing price at 4032 yuan/ton (down 68 yuan/ton, - 1.66% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot price at 4145 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 42 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - based syngas EG was - 602 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the East China main port showed different trends according to different data sources. According to CCF, it was 52.3 tons (down 5.6 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong, it was 49.9 tons (up 1.6 tons month - on - month). The planned arrival volume this week is large, and inventory accumulation is expected [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the domestic ethylene glycol load is running at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. The import expectation changes little. On the demand side, the polyester downstream has moderately improved recently, which boosts the overall sentiment [2]. - The strategy suggests being cautiously bearish on the single - side, conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605, and having no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG East China spot price and basis are presented, with the price and basis changes as mentioned above [1][6][7] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and methanol - based EG are analyzed, along with the overall and syngas - based EG operating rates [1][10][14] International Price Difference - The international price difference between US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol is involved [17][19] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The production and sales of filaments and short fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips are included [18][20][22] Inventory Data - The inventory data of the East China port, Zhangjiagang, Ningbo Port, Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, Shanghai + Changshu Port, the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of the East China port are analyzed [29][30][33]
股指期权日报-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core View - The report provides an overview of the stock index options market on October 29, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On October 29, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 762,800 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 856,800 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,206,000 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 46,800 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,727,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 24,600 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 stock index options was 113,900 contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 201,000 contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.53, with a month - on - month change of - 0.07; the position PCR was reported at 1.00, with a month - on - month change of + 0.01. Similar data for other options are also provided [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 17.36%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.33%. Similar data for other options are also provided [3]
化工日报:关注周四反内卷座谈会及宏观变动-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:03
Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Views - The PTA industry is facing over - capacity and low processing fees, but the situation may gradually reverse in 2026 as new PTA device investment plans are scarce while polyester has 300 - 400 million tons of investment plans [1]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently due to sanctions and other factors, but the upward momentum is insufficient as the supply - surplus contradiction has emerged and the market has priced in the impact of sanctions [2]. - PX has limited room for PXN rebound due to high - load operation, few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, and capacity expansion of some devices [2]. - PTA has low processing fees due to new device investment, with less inventory accumulation pressure in the near term but increasing pressure after November [2]. - In terms of demand, polyester's domestic sales orders have improved, and inventory has decreased, but external demand depends on Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. - For PF, demand has slightly improved, inventory has decreased, and processing fees are expected to be oscillatingly strong [4]. - For PR, the fundamentals have little change, and the spot processing fees are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows charts of TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes charts of PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - There are charts of toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents charts of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA loads, as well as China and Asia's PX loads [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows charts of PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes charts of filament and short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, various filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - There are charts of polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, and related production and processing data [74][75][81]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows charts of polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and other related data [87][89][95].
新能源及有色金属日报:电解铝厂积极补货氧化铝-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Neutral - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Long the SHFE aluminum forward spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production cuts and high electricity costs impact the market. The aluminum price is supported by macro factors, and its upward potential depends on the inventory drawdown [6]. - Alumina has a low - price spot market, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing. However, the supply - demand surplus persists, and cost and supply factors put pressure on prices, with current valuations being low [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 29, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,170 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was - 30 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton change. The Central China A00 aluminum price was 21,040 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was - 160 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton change. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 21,070 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,180 yuan/ton, closed at 21,295 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The highest price was 21,330 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,155 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,760 lots, and the open interest was 283,278 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a change of 8,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,044 tons, a change of - 199 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 462,750 tons, a change of - 2,900 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,020 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,818 yuan/ton, closed at 2,879 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.41%). The highest price was 2,885 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,814 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 339,807 lots, and the open interest was 377,474 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 29, 2025, the Baotai civilian scrap aluminum purchase price was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the mechanical scrap aluminum purchase price was 17,000 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,703 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 97 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic supply - demand fundamentals are stable. Overseas, an accident in an Icelandic plant caused a 200,000 - ton production cut, and high electricity costs pressure overseas production. Consumption is stable, but inventory drawdown is not obvious, and the spot discount is hard to correct. Sino - US negotiations may have an emotional impact [6]. Alumina - Low - price alumina spot and high profits of electrolytic aluminum plants drive procurement. However, the supply - demand surplus remains, and cost and supply factors are unfavorable. The price is currently undervalued [7][8]
化工日报:午后焦煤偏强,EG跟涨-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. High supply leads to significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, but the price has dropped near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs have boosted market sentiment [2] - Inter - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None Core View - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. More than two sets of equipment in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state, but due to the issue of individual ships involving the US, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,100 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.76%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,158 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was 73 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 44 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 599 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the content Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, which has a certain boost to the overall sentiment [1] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 523,000 tons (down 56,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 483,000 tons (down 10,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 35,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports of East China this week is 198,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 45,000 tons. It is expected that inventory will accumulate again [1]
油料日报:豆一受多因素支撑走强,花生供需僵持待变-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is supported by multiple factors and shows a strong trend. However, there is a risk of price correction when new soybeans are concentratedly listed later. The peanut market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the new peanut supply rhythm and quality changes [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybeans - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the closing price of the soybean No. 1 2511 contract was 4,113.00 yuan/ton, a change of -2.00 yuan/ton (-0.05%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A11 - 33, a change of +2 (+32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast new - season soybean prices are generally strong, but grain trading enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm has cooled. With the approaching repayment time, there is a risk of price correction when soybeans are concentratedly listed. The prices in major producing areas remained flat compared to the previous day. Yesterday, the soybean No. 1 futures rose slightly. The transportation demand in the Northeast soybean market is strong, and freight rates have increased significantly. The soybean price in the Northeast continues to be strong, supported by the downstream's inventory - building willingness and supply tightness [1][2] - **Strategy**: Neutral [3] Peanuts - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7,822.00 yuan/ton, a change of +16.00 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 7,760.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK11 + 178.00, a change of -16.00 (-8.25%) from the previous day. The national average price of common peanuts decreased by 0.13 yuan/jin. The new peanut supply pressure is being released, the demand is weak, and the arrival volume at oil mills is limited. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate [3][4] - **Strategy**: Neutral [5] - **Risk**: Demand may weaken [5] Group 4: Data Charts - There are 22 charts related to soybean and peanut prices, production, consumption, inventory, and other data, with data sources including Flush, Steel Union Data, and the National Bureau of Statistics [6]
新能源及有色金属日报:铜价创出新高,易涨难跌格局暂难改-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: On hold; Options: short put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded and the copper price reached a new high yesterday. The gold - copper ratio may still need to converge in the future. However, as the demand side has no outstanding performance, enterprises with selling hedging needs can choose the right time to operate. Currently, the pattern of copper prices being prone to rise and hard to fall is difficult to change [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session closed at 89,130 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 130 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 60 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,550 - 87,980 yuan/ton. Market procurement and sales sentiment warmed up. If copper prices continue to be strong, downstream will mainly make rigid - demand purchases, while traders may replenish stocks moderately [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1, 2025. Fed Chairman Powell said a December rate cut is "far from certain", and FOMC members are divided [3] Mining End - First Quantum Minerals' Sentinel mine produced 51,336 tons of copper in Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8,228 tons. The monthly average ore - grinding throughput exceeded 5 million tons, a 14% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company is solving the fatigue problem of the 2nd ball mill's flange bolts and expects the 2nd in - pit crusher to be put into operation in Q4 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The "Guidelines for Green Transformation of the Non - ferrous Metal Industry in Henan Province" proposes to replace traditional roasting with bio - leaching in copper smelting, use low - arsenic and low - fluorine - chlorine raw materials, and adopt advanced processes to reduce emissions [5] Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the UAE RTC photo - storage project, which will build a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station + 19GWh battery energy - storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the 2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy - storage part of the northern block. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,400 tons to 135,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 101 tons to 35,745 tons. On October 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a 2,900 - ton increase from the previous week [6] Price and Basis Data - The spot (premium/discount) of SMM 1 copper, prices of different copper types, LME (0 - 3), LME inventory, SHFE inventory, COMEX inventory, warehouse receipts, LME cancellation rate, and various spreads, arbitrage ratios, and import profits are presented with data for different time points (October 30, 29, 23, and September 30, 2025) [25][26][27]
燃料油日报:高硫燃料油市场结构小幅转弱-20251030
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has slightly weakened, and the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has been weak recently. The strength pattern of high and low sulfur has changed marginally, and the high-low sulfur spread has rebounded slightly from a low level [1] - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance has emerged again, and the FU and LU disk prices have followed suit. Currently, there are still macro uncertainties, so caution is advised [1] - If there are no major problems with Russian supply, there is no shortage expectation in the high-sulfur fuel oil market, and the upward valuation space is limited [1] - With the restart of the RFCC unit of the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally [1] Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.2% at 2,796 yuan/ton, and the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,246 yuan/ton [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil recently show a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", but the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has shown signs of slight weakness. While the unilateral price has followed the decline of crude oil, the outer market month spread and crack spread have also declined [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently [1]