1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy for asphalt is rated as "oscillating weakly." There are no specific ratings provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market shows a narrow - range fluctuation on the盘面, and weak demand suppresses the spot market. The current supply - demand pattern of asphalt remains weak. Under the influence of weather and capital factors, the improvement of rigid demand is weak, speculative demand is also weak, the de - stocking of social inventory is weaker than the seasonal level, and overall supply is relatively abundant, which suppresses the sentiment on the spot side. If oil prices continue to fall in the future, asphalt market prices will also decline further. In the short term, attention should be paid to the additional disturbances to the oil market sentiment caused by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 21, the closing price of the main BU2510 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,465 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 211,461 lots, a decrease of 6,077 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 123,366 lots, a decrease of 22,655 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,380 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,460 - 3,530 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The prices in the Northwest and Northeast markets remained generally stable yesterday, while asphalt spot prices in other regions declined to varying degrees [1] - Recently, the oil price has been weak, and combined with the average fundamentals of asphalt itself, the market has been oscillating weakly. Although the oil price rebounded slightly yesterday and the BU盘面 stabilized, the fluctuation range was still narrow [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures in the report, including those showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), the closing prices of the asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the monthly spread of the near - month asphalt futures, the trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 120,010 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 90,715 lots and an open interest of 102,385 lots [1]. - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,430 yuan/ton, then quickly rose to 121,080 yuan/ton, but then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 119,620 yuan/ton and finally closing at 120,060 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 77,982 lots. The daily session opened at 120,010 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 119,780 - 120,590 yuan/ton, and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 90,715 lots. The LME nickel price fell to 15,050 US dollars/ton during the daily session, intensifying the bearish sentiment in the domestic market [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises slightly improved. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588 (29.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 209,598 (252) tons [3]. Strategy - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The production capacity of nickel intermediate products continues to be released, and the price of the ore end is loosening. In the short term, the nickel price will mainly fluctuate and move closer to the cost below. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 99,736 lots and an open interest of 138,810 lots [4]. - In the night session, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,870 yuan/ton, rose to 12,895 yuan/ton, then fell under pressure, reaching a minimum of 12,765 yuan/ton and finally closing at 12,820 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton or 0.81%, with a trading volume of 149,736 lots. The daily session opened at 12,830 yuan/ton, fluctuated between 12,785 - 12,860 yuan/ton, and closed at 12,795 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous settlement price, with an enlarged trading volume of 99,736 lots. The spot market prices in Wuxi and Foshan were 13,050 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 330 - 530 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 928.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Currently in the traditional off - season of consumption, demand is weak, and affected by macro news, it is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in a range in the near future. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and no operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] Core View - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate has improved, with both inventory and production decreasing. The subsequent approval of other mines is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the mining end's operation. With support from the consumer end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly under the influence of mining end disturbances, but the market is volatile [2]. Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 82,000 yuan/ton and closed at 82,760 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 777,827 lots, and the open interest was 390,069 lots (395,102 lots the previous day). The basis was 2,740 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 24,320 lots, a change of 275 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,500 - 86,900 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 - 83,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures price has boosted downstream procurement and pricing enthusiasm, and the trading volume has significantly increased. Supported by rigid procurement from the downstream, the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain relatively high in the short term [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while that from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Downstream inventory increased significantly, and smelter inventory decreased [1]. Strategy - Due to the improvement in the supply - demand pattern, the reduction in inventory and production, and the uncertainty of subsequent mine approvals, attention should be paid to the mining end's operation. With support from the consumer end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but market participants need to manage risks due to high volatility [2]. Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core View - The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the prices of the three major oils are fluctuating. Palm oil was previously supported by biodiesel expectations and consumption, but the price has reached a bottleneck due to the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil and the optimistic outlook for soybean oil supply [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9500.00 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan (-0.57%); soybean oil 2601 contract was 8394.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (-0.24%); and rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9791.00 yuan/ton, down 37.00 yuan (-0.38%) [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9500.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan (+0.64%); in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8480.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%); in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 9910.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan (-0.50%) [1] Market Information - Malaysia: As of April 2025, over 30,000 small - scale palm oil growers in Sabah have obtained MSPO certification, covering over 191,000 hectares, with a certification rate of 97.62%. In Sabah, about 97% of oil palm areas and over 92% in Sarawak are MSPO - certified. From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [2] - Argentina: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1151 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton; for November shipment, it was 1148 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton [2] - Canada: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1045 dollars/ton, unchanged; for November shipment, it was 1025 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - US and Brazil: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 463 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; US West soybeans (September shipment) was 457 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 488 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 217 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel; US West Coast (September shipment) was 191 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (October shipment) was 295 cents/bushel, down 8 cents/bushel [2] - Indonesia: As of the end of June, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. In June, its palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In July, the total social electricity consumption increased significantly, reaching 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% and breaking through the one - trillion - kilowatt - hour mark for the first time globally. The pork price dropped slightly, and the national development and reform commission will carry out central frozen pork reserve purchases. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is cautious about the suggestion of extending trading hours [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to ten years ago. The pork price dropped slightly due to factors such as hot weather, weak seasonal consumption, and the release of second - fattened pigs. The national average pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1, entering the third - level warning range, and the government will conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases [1] 3.1.2. Service Industry - At the HKEX's 2025 interim results meeting, there was a suggestion to extend trading hours. The HKEX is cautious about this and needs to consult all market participants as it has a significant impact on the market [2] 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Black: The glass price dropped significantly. Agriculture: The egg price increased. Energy: The price of liquefied natural gas declined [3] 3.2.2. Mid - stream - Chemical: The PX operating rate increased. Energy: The coal consumption of power plants rose. Agriculture: The operating rate of pig products increased [3] 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities declined seasonally. Service: The number of domestic flights remained stable at a high level [3] 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - On August 21, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the egg price increased by 4.22%, while the glass price decreased by 3.80% [38]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report indicates that the expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has limited impact on methanol. The port inventory is rising rapidly, and attention should be paid to the tank capacity. The downstream MTO Xingxing is still under maintenance and is expected to resume work at the end of the month. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is over, and the start - up rate will gradually increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. The formaldehyde industry is in its seasonal off - season and is waiting for a bottom - up recovery [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure The report provides figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][10][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][26][33]. 3. Methanol Start - up, Inventory It presents data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [34][35][37]. 4. Regional Spreads The report shows regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [39][48][50]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][58]. Strategy The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral, inter - term, and cross - variety trading [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating as the price increase has not been implemented yet; glass and soda ash prices are oscillating within a narrow range due to supply disturbances; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are also fluctuating with the intertwining of long - short games [1][3] - Glass is expected to be weak and oscillating, and soda ash is also expected to be weak and oscillating; silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the speculative sentiment weakened. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly. The downstream spot market was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week; the output was 771,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. With the previous price increase, the glass output increased significantly, and the pressure to reduce high inventory is great. The premium of the futures market has been quickly repaired. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on the supply and demand sides of glass [1] - Soda Ash: With the implementation of new production capacity in the later stage and the lack of expectation of a significant increase in soda ash consumption, the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash will continue to intensify. Therefore, it is still necessary to restrict the release of production capacity and output through losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the supply side such as the progress of new production capacity commissioning [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Weak and oscillating [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The long - short game sentiment in the silicomanganese futures market continued, and the market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market quotation did not change significantly. The price of silicomanganese 6517 in the northern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was about 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated within a narrow range, with a 0.28% increase. In the spot market, the market sentiment was average, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lump in the main production area was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese: The output of silicomanganese increased month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline, being at the median level in the same period in recent years. With the slight increase in the manganese ore quotation, the cost of silicomanganese increased. The market still shows an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to suppress the output release through a certain degree of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and shipping situation of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: With the profit repair, the output of ferrosilicon increased rapidly, the demand decreased slightly week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. In the long run, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the PG market trading at a low level, recent marginal positive factors (rising international freight rates and improved chemical demand) have led to an improvement in market sentiment. With the main contract switching to 2510, the market shows signs of bottom - building and rebound. However, considering that the LPG supply - demand pattern has not reversed substantially, the driving force and space for the market to continue rising may be limited [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on August 21**: Shandong market: 4420 - 4520 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3950 - 4130 yuan/ton; North China market: 4280 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market: 4330 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4480 - 4760 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market: 4478 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's Imported Prices in Mid - to - Late September 2025**: In East China, the CIF price of propane is 579 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and that of butane is 556 dollars/ton (down 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4544 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton) for propane and 4363 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, the CIF price of propane is 571 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton), and that of butane is 548 dollars/ton (down 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4481 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton) for propane and 4301 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains abundant with high overseas supply, concentrated arrivals, and an increase in domestic commodity volume. On the demand side, combustion - end demand is weak due to high summer temperatures, while chemical - end demand has improved marginally, with the PDH operating rate reaching a high level this year, but the momentum for further strengthening is limited [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to fluctuate. Traders can focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels, but the upside space is limited. There are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the second week of September [1]. - The 8 - month contract has seen the top of the freight rate, and the continuous decline in freight rates brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to move down. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [5][6]. - The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. If it reopens, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. The unilateral strategy is that the main contract fluctuates weakly, and the arbitrage strategy is to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for different routes and time periods. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1300/2180, and Maersk's PSS in the Far East - Nordic region has dropped to 50/100 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has approved the plan for the Israeli Defense Forces to take over Gaza City and instructed to start cease - fire negotiations, while Hamas senior officials believe he is the main obstacle. Saudi Crown Prince and Egyptian President oppose Israel's military occupation of Gaza [2]. 3.2 Shipping Capacity - Weekly and monthly average shipping capacities from China to European base ports in different months are provided. There are also details about overtime ships in August and planned overtime ships in October. For example, in August, Maersk added two overtime ships, and HPL announced two overtime ships in October [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25. The estimated final price is around 2100 points [4]. - 10 - month contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation. The freight rate center is moving down, and it is expected that Maersk's week 37 quote will continue to decline, possibly below 2000 US dollars/FEU. The two overtime ships announced by HPL in October may also put pressure on the spot price [5]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 21, 2025, the total positions of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures are 79,540.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,149.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. Spot prices such as SCFI and SCFIS for different routes are also given [7]. 3.5 Container Ship Delivery - In 2025 so far, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.318 million TEU. As of August 15, 2025, 51 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered [8]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - Arbitrage: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies [8].