国债期货日报 | 2025-12-03 11月央行买债不及预期，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。（2）通胀:10月CPI同比上升0.2%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影 ...

供需宽松格局延续，盘面反弹空间受限 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5959元/吨（-6），丙烯华东现货价6015元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价6070元/吨（+50）， 丙烯华东基差56元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差75元/吨（+38）。丙烯开工率74%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR178美元/吨（+4），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（-5），进口利润-301元/吨（+3），厂内库存48970吨（+3930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率42%（-4.20%），生产利润-330元/吨（-50）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润136 元/吨（+91）；正丁醇开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-175元/吨（+73）；辛醇开工率81%（+4%），生产利润308元/ 吨（+68）；丙烯酸开工率77%（+4%），生产利润429元/吨（-11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+1%），生产利润-518元/吨 （-38）；酚酮开工率81%（+2%），生产利润-602元/吨（+0）。 丙烯日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 单边：观望；短期成本端支撑增强，盘面偏强震荡，但 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-03 市场驱动有限，盘面维持震荡运行 市场分析 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t12月2日地区价格：山东市场，4410-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4220-4470； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷580美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷570美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4520元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4442元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，丁烷563美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4466元/吨，跌99元/吨，丁烷4388元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-03 终端需求疲软，现货延续跌势 市场分析 1、12月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价2916元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌72元/吨，跌幅 2.41%；持仓136104手，环比下跌14100手，成交222484手，环比上涨57910手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2880—3470元/吨；华南，2980—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3300元/吨。 沥青盘面维持弱势震荡运行，筑底尚未完成。现货方面，昨日华北、山东、华东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价 格均出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。就沥青自身基本面而言，尽管原油价格整体走势偏强，但沥青 市场情绪较弱，需求端持续疲软，局部过剩压力仍存，施压沥青现货价格。虽然有部分冬储合同释放，但逆转弱 势还需要更多利好因素刺激。 策略 单边：中性，等待市场筑底 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-03 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.2% at 2,469 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.63% at 3,035 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from the low level, but the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually materializing. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further subside, and the cost side will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited currently. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment stage, with the support from the incremental demand on the refinery side. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. The extended maintenance time of the Azur refinery and zero shipping volume from Kuwait since November provide short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and the high - low sulfur basis has risen again, but the expected space is limited [1] 3. Summary of Relevant Figures Singapore Fuel Oil Spot and Swap Contracts - Figure 1 shows the spot price of Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil in dollars/ton [3][12] - Figure 2 shows the spot price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil in dollars/ton [3][12] - Figure 3 shows the near - month contract of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap in dollars/ton [3][4] - Figure 4 shows the near - month contract of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap in dollars/ton [3][4] Singapore Fuel Oil Near - Month Spreads - Figure 5 shows the near - month spread of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil in dollars/ton [3][7] - Figure 6 shows the near - month spread of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil in dollars/ton [3][7] Fuel Oil FU Futures - Figure 7 shows the closing price of the main contract of fuel oil FU futures in yuan/ton [3][13] - Figure 8 shows the closing price of the fuel oil FU futures index in yuan/ton [3][13] - Figure 9 shows the closing price of the near - month contract of fuel oil FU futures in yuan/ton [3][20] - Figure 10 shows the near - month spread of the fuel oil FU contract in yuan/ton [3][20] - Figure 11 shows the trading volume and open interest of the main contract of fuel oil FU futures in lots [3][21] - Figure 12 shows the total trading volume and open interest of fuel oil FU futures in lots [3][21] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil LU Futures - Figure 13 shows the closing price of the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in yuan/ton [3][27] - Figure 14 shows the closing price of the low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures index in yuan/ton [3][27] - Figure 15 shows the price of the near - month contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in yuan/ton [3][24] - Figure 16 shows the near - month spread of low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in yuan/ton [3][24] - Figure 17 shows the trading volume and open interest of the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in lots [3][25] - Figure 18 shows the total trading volume and open interest of low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures in lots [3][25]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Sino - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand side of the new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [3] - In the corn market, due to the temperature drop in Northeast China, the low moisture content and good quality of new - season corn, farmers are more likely to hold back sales when prices fall. Meanwhile, the competition among buyers is intensifying, which supports the current corn price [5] Group 3: Market News and Key Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2423 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 35, down 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 25, down 6; in Guangdong, it was 3010 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 35, down 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 177, unchanged [1] - Market Information: StoneX estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 1.772 billion tons, a 0.9% reduction from its November forecast. As of October 23, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 1449800 tons, up 31% from the previous week and 57% from the four - week average. US soybean export shipments were 1388200 tons, down 20% from the previous week but up 48% from the four - week average. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 89% of the expected area, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but still lower than last year's 91% [2] Group 4: Market News and Key Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2243 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2546 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.16%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of C01 + 52, up 3 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS01 + 54, down 4 [4] - Market Information: StoneX estimated Brazil's 2025/26 corn production at 1.344 billion tons, a 0.6% reduction from its November forecast. As of October 23, US current - market - year corn export sales net increased by 1805300 tons, down 36% from the previous week and 7% from the four - week average. US corn export shipments were 1332500 tons, down 6% from the previous week and 8% from the four - week average [4] Group 5: Market Analysis (Soybean Meal) - After the Sino - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. With an additional 10% import tariff on US soybeans and the decline in South American soybean premiums, the competitiveness of US soybeans is weakened. The procurement progress of US soybeans and the price difference between North and South American soybeans need to be closely monitored [3] Group 6: Market Analysis (Corn) - In Northeast China, the rapid temperature drop, low moisture content, and good quality of new - season corn make it easier for farmers to store. When prices fall, farmers are less willing to sell. At the same time, with sufficient funds of traders and the participation of futures - cash companies in the acquisition, the competition among buyers is intensifying, which supports the current corn price [5] Group 7: Strategies - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is neutral [6]

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core View - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas production has been reduced due to an electrical equipment accident in an Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant, and power costs still pose a great pressure on overseas electrolytic aluminum operations. Consumption shows good growth and is expected to enter the peak season from November to December. With positive macro - factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and the upward space may open if the social inventory is smoothly depleted [6]. - The GIC in Guinea may resume bauxite mining if it pays the concession fee, increasing the expectation of Axis mine's复产. The domestic alumina futures price has dropped rapidly, which may be beneficial for the digestion of warehouse receipts. However, there are few bullish factors in the fundamentals, and the current over - supply situation persists. The alumina valuation is low, and the risk of uncertainty in Guinea's bauxite supply needs to be guarded against [7][8]. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On December 2, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount was - 50 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount was - 180 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,610 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount was - 145 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,870 yuan/ton, closed at 21,910 yuan/ton, a change of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,940 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,755 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 177,992 lots, and the position was 258,440 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 2, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, with no change from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,833 tons, with no change from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 535,900 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 2, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,825 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,760 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,850 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 314 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,687 yuan/ton, closed at 2,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 12 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 0.45%, with a maximum price of 2,697 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,661 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 177,845 lots, and the position was 358,708 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 2, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 269 yuan/ton [5].

油料日报 | 2025-12-03 豆一贸易商挺价信心足，花生需求端谨慎观望 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4123.00元/吨，较前日变化-3.00元/吨，幅度-0.07%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A01-23，较前日变化+3，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆价格持稳为主。基层余粮逐步见底，农户普遍持粮惜售，对当前价格形成 底部支撑。从贸易环节来看，市场流通节奏相对平缓，多数粮商已完成前期订单履约，当前购销活跃度不高，买 卖双方观望情绪较浓。综合来看，在供需相对平衡的格局下，预计短期内大豆价格将平稳运行。黑龙江哈尔滨市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03 元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平； 黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标 一等蛋 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday, and the oil market showed differentiation. Due to the arrival of the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the recent low - price stimulation of consumption, the growth rate of palm oil inventory accumulation slowed down, and the palm oil price fluctuated strongly [3] Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.79% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,288.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,745.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 25.00 yuan or -0.26% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,660.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.46%, and the spot basis was P01 - 60.00, a change of -28.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 152.00, with no change; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,030.00 yuan/ton, a change of -40.00 yuan or -0.40%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 285.00, a change of -15.00 yuan [1] Market News - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported about 20.2 billion US dollars of palm oil (including crude palm oil and processed products). The total export volume of palm oil from January to October 2025 reached 19.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.83%. In October alone, the export volume was 1.91 million tons. In October, the global palm oil price increased by 0.80% month - on - month to 1,045.04 US dollars per ton [2] - The US Soybean Association is actively seeking ways to expand the market demand for US soybeans. The dairy industry is one of the livestock sectors that have recently entered this field. Traders said that India's soybean oil imports in November decreased by 12% month - on - month to 400,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 44% month - on - month to 145,000 tons, the lowest level in two years. India's edible oil imports in November decreased by 11.5% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons, the lowest level in seven months [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,186 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,085 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - During the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Also, pay attention to the impact of geopolitical events on the energy market and the "anti - involution" opportunities in various sectors [4] Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are rising. Multiple policy - related meetings were held in November. China's October export, investment, consumption, and industrial growth slowed down. The November official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond transactions. As of December 2, local government bond issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan. On December 2, A - share markets adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% [2] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased from less than 30% on November 20th to over 70%. Some Fed officials support a December rate cut. US economic data shows mixed performance. The European Central Bank warns of financial stability risks, and the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon [3] Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, pay attention to "anti - involution" due to weak downstream demand. The non - ferrous sector is limited by long - term supply and boosted by global easing expectations. In the energy sector, monitor the peace talks' impact on oil prices and OPEC's additional production cuts. In the chemical sector, focus on the "anti - involution" space of certain products. For agricultural products, watch China's procurement plans and weather expectations. After clearing short - term adjustment risks, consider buying precious metals at low prices [4] Key News - China's central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond transactions in November. A - share markets adjusted on December 2, with over 3,700 stocks falling. US manufacturing index declined, and Japanese bond yields reached new highs. Eurozone CPI rebounded. Spot silver rose 4%. The US and UK reached a pharmaceutical pricing agreement [6] Charts - There are multiple charts related to economic indicators such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, real - estate transaction areas, steel consumption, Sino - US bond spreads, exchange rates, and the dollar index [7]