新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 消费排产仍有支撑，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 市场分析 2025年6月26日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60680元/吨，收于61500元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当 日成交量为386982手，持仓量为345216手，较前一交易日减少5190手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳900 元/吨。所有合约总持仓619950手，较前一交易日减少10604手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加39407手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.79 。当日碳酸锂仓单22590手，较上个交易日增加220手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月26日电池级碳酸锂报价6-6.12万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.85-5.95万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为13.68 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.90 万吨，下游库存为4.06 万吨， 其他库存为3.72 万吨。周度产量也小幅增长305吨至1.88万吨，以锂辉石及云母生产产量均有增长。 策略 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - If Iran returns to the negotiation table and reaches an agreement with the US, the ceiling for Iranian oil exports will be lifted again. Production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day to 4 million barrels per day within six months, and exports may increase to 2.5 million barrels per day, which is a significant negative for the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 32 cents to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 5 cents to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.46% at 498 yuan per barrel [1] - US oil executives won Trump's support in efforts to abolish European environmental regulations. US oil giants and their lobbyists urged Trump and his cabinet members to use ongoing trade negotiations with the EU to push for the cancellation of two major climate laws in the European Green Deal [1] - The US goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports posting the largest decline since the pandemic began and imports barely changing. The goods trade deficit increased 11.1% to $96.6 billion, higher than market expectations [1] - The Trump administration has discussed potentially helping Iran obtain up to $30 billion for civilian nuclear energy projects, relaxing sanctions, and unfreezing billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds as part of efforts to bring Tehran back to the negotiation table [1] - Israel estimates that the 12-day war with Iran caused losses of 10 billion shekels (about $3 billion), and the total losses may climb significantly after the evaluation is completed. The Bank of Israel expects the economic growth rate this year to be 3.5%, but this figure may be affected by the recent war [1] Investment Logic - Next week, the US and Iran will hold negotiations. If Iran gives up uranium enrichment activities, the US will consider relaxing Iranian oil sanctions. If an agreement is reached, it will be a major negative for the oil market [2] Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Risk - Downside risks: US lifting of Iranian oil sanctions, macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large-scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

化工日报 | 2025-06-27 宏观回归平淡，PX基本面偏强维持 市场要闻与数据 市场分析 成本端，如果伊以停火期间没有出现新的变数，则未来油市主要运行逻辑将从地缘政治重回基本面驱动。就当前 原油基本面而言，油市进入供需双增阶段，短期压力有限。但展望今年四季度，旺季结束后需求增长弹性将显著 小于供应端，原注预计进入到供过于求的状态，中期市场驱动偏空。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN270美元/吨(环比变动-3.00美元/吨）。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停车， 沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修，目前现货市场货源仍 较紧张，PX浮动价依然偏强，关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-27 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，美豆产区天气是风险较小，窗口期逐步缩小，压力逐步显现。 策略 中性 风险 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8360.00元/吨，环比变化+16元，幅度+0.19%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+16.00元，幅度+0.20%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9482.00元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.06%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8460.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差P09+100.00，环比变 化-16.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8180.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.31%，现货基差OI09+148.00， 环比变化-36.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对埃及出口销售11万吨大豆，于2024/2025 年度交货。美国大豆市场年度始于9月1日。美国 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-27 大豆供应增量终端消费较弱，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化-19.00元/吨，幅度-0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+130，较前日变化+119，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第四日下跌，其中基准期约收低1.85%，主要原因 是美国中西部地区天气转好，关键报告出台前交易商选择避险结利。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌14.75美分到21.50美 分不等，其中7月期约下跌21.50美分，报收1025.25美分/蒲;8月期约下跌20.75美分，报收1029.50美分/蒲;11月期约 下跌18.50美分，报收1018.50美分/蒲。6月27日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14 元/斤，较昨日涨0.05元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨 0.04元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨0.04元/斤；黑龙 江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Agricultural demand for urea is steadily rising as downstream agricultural top - dressing and fertilizer preparation continue, but industrial demand is weakening with declining capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and low - level operation of melamine [2] - Urea production is at a high level with few planned device overhauls, so supply pressure is large. However, due to the release of agricultural demand, factory pre - sales orders are increasing and enterprise inventories are decreasing [2] - In terms of exports, there is still port - collection demand, but the new export quota is unclear, and the export benefits are gradually weakening. Port inventories have increased significantly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report may use figures such as the Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, and Henan main - continuous basis to analyze the urea basis structure, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - The report likely uses figures on urea weekly production and urea device overhaul loss volume to analyze urea production, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report may analyze urea production profit and operating rate through figures including production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][21][29] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - The report may analyze urea offshore price and export profit using figures such as the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and disk export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [24][25][30] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - The report may analyze urea downstream operation and orders through figures including compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, melamine capacity utilization rate, and pre - order days of urea enterprises, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][43] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report may analyze urea inventory and warehouse receipts using figures such as upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [46][47][50]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 铝期货方面：2025-06-26日沪铝主力合约开于20340元/吨，收于20445元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨150元/ 吨，涨幅0.74%，最高价达20455元/吨，最低价达到20325元/吨。全天交易日成交152410手，较上一交易日增 加35033手，全天交易日持仓260549手，较上一交易日增加6534手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-26，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.3万吨。截止2025-06-26，LME铝库存336900 吨，较前一交易日减少1000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-26 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3095元/吨，山东价格录得3095元/吨，广西价格录得 3190元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得370美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-06-26氧化铝主力合约开于2915元/吨，收于2948元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨42元/ 吨，涨幅1.45%，最高价达到2952元/吨，最低价为2915元/吨。全天交易日成交325494手，较上一交易日增加 92693手，全天交易日持仓290722手，较上一交易日增加6178手。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-27 养殖端控量，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14040元/吨，较前交易日变动+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.83元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+790，较前交易日变动+50；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1070，较前交易日变动+60；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.76元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09-280，较前交易日变动+50。 据农业农村部监测，6月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.40，比昨天下降0.17个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.38，比昨天下降0.19个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.31元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；牛肉63.42 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉59.34元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；鸡蛋7.28元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；白条鸡17.42 元/公斤，比昨天上升2.5%。 市场分析 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-27 现货价格整体下调，豆粕维持弱势 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2936元/吨，较前日变动-57元/吨，幅度-1.90%；菜粕2509合约2550元/吨，较前 日变动-38元/吨，幅度-1.47%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-56， 较前日变动+27；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-146，较前日变动+27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌-50元/吨，现货基差M09-136，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2540 元/吨，较前日变动-50元/吨，现货基差RM09-10，较前日变动-12。 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2508合约2378元/吨，较前日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.04%；玉米淀粉2508合约2728元/吨， 较前日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C08+2，较前日变动-1；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2750元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-27 伊朗6月高硫燃料油发货量小幅增加 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.03%，报3019元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.19%，报3693 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌。如果没有新的变 数，原油和燃料油市场或重新进入基本面主导的阶段，FU、LU盘面窄幅波动为主。 高硫燃料油方面，近日月差结构明显转弱，反映现货端相对充裕，下游炼厂端利润的疲软制约了采购需求。供应 方面，伊朗6月高硫燃料油供应并未受到地缘冲突的显著影响。参考船期数据，伊朗6月份高硫燃料油发货量预计 为105万吨，环比增加8万吨，同比减少9万吨。整体来看，地缘扰动结束后高硫燃料油自身市场驱动有限，夏季发 电端消费受到季节性与天然气替代的提振。此外，国内炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调对炼厂燃料油需求存在边际利好， 但裂解价差需要进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，市场结构持稳运行。最新数据显示5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位，此外新 加坡5月份船燃销量显著增长，下游船燃需求短期表现良好，对市场存在支撑。 ...