1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; LL and PP 01 - 05 spread trading: Sell high and buy back; 05 - 09 spread trading: Buy low and sell high; Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand weakness restricts the rebound space of the polyolefin market. For PE, the supply is abundant while the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a limited short - term rebound. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, and the expected rebound height of the futures price is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,831 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,410 yuan/ton (+13). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,750 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,880 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,350 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 81 yuan/ton (-28), in East China is 49 yuan/ton (-28), and the PP basis in East China is - 60 yuan/ton (-13) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 84.5% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.1% (-0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 316.1 yuan/ton (+4.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 453.9 yuan/ton (+4.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 596.6 yuan/ton (-35.0) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 44.1 yuan/ton (+3.0), the PP import profit is - 230.6 yuan/ton (+2.9), and the PP export profit is - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.0% (-0.9%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.1% (-0.1%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: In the first half of 2026, the domestic PE production capacity expansion slows down significantly. The supply pressure mainly comes from the high output of existing plants. The supply is continuously abundant, while the downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory - clearing pressure is large. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend, and the cost support is relatively limited. The short - term rebound space of plastics is limited [2] - **PP**: The weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, and the basis continues to fluctuate at a low level. The supply pressure mainly comes from existing plants. The downstream overall operating rate is expected to weaken gradually, and the demand follow - up is insufficient. The expected rebound height of the futures price is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - end disturbances [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-03 纸浆强势反弹，郑糖依旧偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13800元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14817元/吨，较前一日变动+54元/吨，现货基差CF01+1017，较前一日变动+19；3128B棉全国均价14980元/吨， 较前一日变动+44元/吨，现货基差CF01+1180，较前一日变动+9。 近期市场资讯，截至11月28日，印度棉花累计上市量折皮棉约85.0万吨。1日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约 3.0万吨，主要来自安得拉邦、马哈拉施特拉邦及古吉拉特邦。据悉，1日印度棉花公司（CCI）抛储约9.8万吨。具 体来看，2025/26年度S-6竞拍底价仍在51400卢比/坎地，折美金约73.40美分/磅。据悉，CCI新年度累计籽棉收购量 折皮棉在23.8万吨，较11月20日增加15.3万吨。此外，CCI上年度陈棉库存在14.5万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调， 使得全球棉花期末 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 2025-12-02，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9120元/吨，最后收于8975元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-200）元/吨，变化（-2.18）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓187342手，2025-12-02仓单总数为6784手，较前 一日变化188手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9500-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-13300（0）元/吨。有机硅DMC市场持稳，DMC报价在13100-13300 元/吨，在单体厂联合减产挺价，预售充足，自身库存压力较小的支撑下，下游对高价货源的接受程度有所提高， 市场看涨信心增强，预计短期内市场稳中偏强运行。据SMM统计，11月国内有机硅DMC产量环比10月增加3.82%， 同比下降1.33%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The OECD reports that global economic growth is better than expected, with AI investment offsetting the impact of US tariffs, and has raised growth forecasts for some major economies. The OECD predicts 3.2% global growth in 2025 (unchanged from the previous forecast), 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged), and 3.1% in 2027 (new forecast). It also forecasts China's economic growth at 5% in 2025, up from the previous 4.9% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes improving people's livelihoods, promoting common prosperity, implementing the employment - first strategy, and improving the income distribution system [1] 3. Summary by Industry Upstream - **Energy**: Liquefied natural gas and crude oil prices are oscillating downward [2] - **Agriculture**: Egg and palm oil prices are continuously rising [2] - **Chemicals**: Urea prices are increasing, while polyethylene prices are slightly declining [2] - **Price Index**: On December 2, the spot - price of eggs was 6.6 yuan/kg (up 3.48% year - on - year), palm oil was 8,670 yuan/ton (up 2.36% year - on - year), WTI crude oil was $63.3/barrel (up 0.82% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was $63.2/barrel (up 0.72% year - on - year), and liquefied natural gas was 4,054 yuan/ton (down 1.31% year - on - year). Urea was 1,702.5 yuan/ton (up 2.87% year - on - year), and polyethylene was 6,905 yuan/ton (down 1.15% year - on - year) [37] Midstream - **Chemicals**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and urea are decreasing, and the urea operating rate is at a three - year high for the same period [2] - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [2] - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt operating rate is continuously decreasing [2] Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up [3] - **Services**: The number of domestic and international flights has decreased [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating in a range. The iron ore market has a warming macro - atmosphere, and ore prices continue to fluctuate. The coking coal and coke market shows a "supply rising, demand weak" weak - balance state, and prices continue to oscillate. The power coal market is in a weak state with low downstream demand and high inventory [1][3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3133 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3325 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the terminal's willingness to accept the price - increased spot was low. The national building materials transaction volume was 9.82 tons [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The output of finished steel increased slightly, the inventory decline slowed down, and the plate inventory remained high. The current consumption of finished steel was stable, but its sustainability was questionable. The consumption expectation of plates was better. The short - term fundamental contradiction was not prominent, and the macro - policy atmosphere continued to boost market expectations [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices rose slightly, with the 2601 contract closing at 800.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose slightly, the trading atmosphere was dull, and supply - demand was loose. The cumulative transaction volume at major national ports was 96.4 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The molten iron output decreased, the steel mill profitability rate was continuously compressed, and there was an expectation of a seasonal decline in molten iron. The rigid demand support weakened, and the restocking demand was not significantly released. Port inventory increased significantly, and steel mill imported ore inventory declined, with structural contradictions being more prominent than overall inventory contradictions [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the black commodity sector was generally strong and oscillating, and the coking coal and coke futures prices rose slightly. The current market inquiry activity for imports was low, the port quotations were weak, and the trading volume declined [5] - **Logic and Views**: In the off - season of downstream steel consumption, the coking coal and coke market will present a weak - balance state of "rising supply and weak demand" in the short term. For coking coal, mine production is gradually recovering, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, with supply expected to be loose. Downstream coking enterprises have limited procurement enthusiasm. For coke, production enthusiasm has improved, but downstream steel mills are in continuous losses, and their procurement attitude is cautious [5][6] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, downstream mainly carried out long - term contract transportation, and non - power coal was purchased as needed. Port inventory accumulated rapidly, quotations continued to loosen, downstream demand was poor, and actual transactions were few. Import coal tender prices continued to decline, and some traders took profits and sold [6] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been in a weak state due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [6] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation continues to exert influence, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. Glass and soda ash markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment and fluctuate. The supply - demand contradictions in glass and soda ash still exist, with high inventory pressure in glass and high - level inventory in soda ash. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures declined yesterday, and the spot market's trading center moved down. Soda ash futures rose, supported by rising costs. The downstream of both mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and high - inventory pressure remains. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has been slightly alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass may challenge the demand for heavy soda ash [1] - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate, and the spot market was stable. The 6517 silicon manganese price in the northern market was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton. Silicon iron futures fluctuated with the black - metal sector, and the spot market was weakly stable. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates declining, but the inventory is at a record high. The slight increase in port manganese ore inventory provides cost support. Silicon iron maintains high production and inventory, with weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased due to reduced operating rates, high inventory still suppresses prices [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the trading data of various index options on December 1, 2025, including option volume, PCR, and VIX, and their corresponding changes compared to the previous period [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Volume - On December 1, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 490,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange CSI 300 ETF options was 662,500 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange CSI 500 ETF options was 1,001,200 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 106,000 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,370,500 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 28,300 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 73,800 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 169,000 contracts [1] Option PCR - The trading volume PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.71, with a month - on - month change of - 0.21; the open interest PCR was reported at 1.05, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05. Similar data was presented for other types of options, showing different PCR values and their month - on - month changes [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 14.07%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.29%. Other types of options also had their respective VIX values and month - on - month changes, such as the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange CSI 300 ETF options being 15.34% with a - 0.02% change [3]

化工日报 | 2025-12-02 成本端反弹，PTA价格上涨 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，欧佩克+同意明年全集团保持产量稳定，八个主要产油国重申明年Q1 暂停增产，部分缓解油价压力，油价有所反弹。整体基本面对油价的驱动偏空。但制裁导致的市场分化依然存在， 需要考虑地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN264美元/吨(环比变动+4.00美元/吨）。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重 整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持在高位，海外PX中高位持稳。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但PX负荷高 位以及个别装置扩能下PXN反弹空间也受限，关注调油情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -33元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨），PTA现货加工费175元/吨（环比变动+5元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费263元/吨（环比变动+10元/吨），近期PTA检修集中，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA供需好转，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.5%（环比+0.2%）， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-02 铜价高位震荡 下游采购意愿受限 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-01，沪铜主力合约开于 87630元/吨，收于 89280元/吨，较前一交易日收盘2.12%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 89,410元/吨，收于 89,380 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.62%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价维持贴水10元至升水220元/吨，均价升水105元/吨，较前日下滑5元。SMM 1#铜价区间为88890至89660元/吨。早间沪铜2512合约冲高至89500元后回落，上午基本于89000元上方整理。跨月 价差维持在Contango结构，进口亏损扩大至超1200元。目前下游对89000元以上价位接受度偏低，采购情绪减弱。 月初高价下持货商出货意愿亦不高，平水铜报价平水至升水60元/吨，部分成交；少量贴水20元货源迅速成交后， 市场还盘压力显现。好铜货源依旧偏紧，金豚大板安徽厂提价报至升水180元以上，短期价格预计坚挺。预计今日 现货成交情绪将受盘面走势影响，若铜价持续高于89000元，新订单及下游采购意愿或继续受限。 重要资讯汇总： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].