Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - The overall non - ferrous commodities show signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened. Despite potential consumption growth, the supply pressure remains, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in China. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.33 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, up 80 yuan, with a premium of -70 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan, with a premium of -60 yuan per ton [1]. - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan per ton, closed at 22,240 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 85,851 lots, and the open interest was 110,426 lots. The intraday high was 22,330 yuan per ton, and the low was 22,230 yuan per ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Trend**: Non - ferrous commodities are showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened [4]. - **Cost**: The imported TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, maintaining an upward trend [4]. - **Smelting**: The smelting profit, including by - product revenue, remains above 1,000 yuan per ton, so smelting enthusiasm persists, and the current and expected supply - side pressure remains unchanged [4]. - **Consumption**: Consumption was strong during the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season. However, even if the peak season is strong, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in China, and the social inventory exceeds the historical average. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, and its futures market is mainly fluctuating with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price center has moved up, but the market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][8] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.66%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 283,578 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC price was 10,800 yuan/ton this week, down 500 yuan/ton from last week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' prices were 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, down 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from last week [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated widely, opening at 52,200 yuan/ton and closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 1.28% from the previous trading day. The position was 149,610 lots, and the trading volume was 447,553 lots [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% change; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a - 12.07% change. The weekly polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a - 0.68% change; the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% change [5] Other Products - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.21 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.56 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.36 yuan/piece [7] - **Battery Cell**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W; Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7] Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price remains stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly this week. The fundamentals have changed little, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment [3] Polysilicon - In the short - term, it is suitable for range trading. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR are rated neutral [5] - BR is rated neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain stops. Currently, the overall supply pressure is small, but there is an expectation of increased supply at the end of August. Downstream tire开工率 shows a divided trend, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the supply is expected to increase next week. The downstream tire开工率 is divided, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,720 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton compared to the previous day), the NR main contract was at 12,600 yuan/ton (+75 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,775 yuan/ton (+60 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90 yuan/ton), Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15 US dollars/ton), Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), the ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), and the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton) [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery due to factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old operating trucks, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million pieces; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million pieces; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000 pieces; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million pieces; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million pieces [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (- 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,100 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,148 yuan/ton (- 35.31), the NR basis was 303.00 yuan/ton (+15.00); whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (+0), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+90), 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (+50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,320 yuan/ton (+90) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.15) [4] -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+2.35%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+2.76%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 21, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+90), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+200), the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,090 yuan/ton (+99) [5] -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis BR was 69.15% (+4.63%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybeans market is waiting for demand, with new beans expected to be in good growth and a potential increase in production. The peanut market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with new peanuts gradually coming onto the market but facing limited downstream acceptance of high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3999.00 yuan/ton, down 37.00 yuan/ton (-0.92%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 261, up 37 (+32.14%) from the previous day. The prices of soybeans in Northeast China remained stable, and the market was waiting for new beans to be listed [1] - Market News: Northeast soybean prices were stable, and there was limited trading in the auction of state - reserve resources. New beans were growing well, and a bumper harvest was expected. As downstream demand increased and consumption of soy products recovered, the demand side was expected to support spot prices [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7762.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8420.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan/ton (+1.94%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 338.00, up 20.00 (+6.29%) from the previous day [3] - Market News: The price of old peanuts was stable, and inventory was being cleared. New peanuts were priced higher than expected, and most oil mills were waiting and seeing. The market was trading lightly, and food processors were mainly consuming inventory [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; supply-side device maintenance and restart changes frequently, combined with new device production capacity release, supply may still be relatively loose; downstream demand overall start-up recovery supports propylene prices in the short term [3] - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None 2. Core Viewpoints - South Korea's petrochemical industry's naphtha cracking has the expectation of capacity reduction, and the propylene futures price rebounds under the boost of macro sentiment. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total capacity, and from January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of the total imports, and 73.7% in 2024. South Korea's petrochemical capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices [2] - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the main PDH devices of Shandong Zhenhua and Jinneng are under maintenance, and the PDH devices of Tianhong and Xintai are restarted, and the PDH start-up rate decreases month-on-month; later, Wanhua Penglai PDH has the expectation of shutdown, and Jilin Petrochemical's new capacity is expected to be released, and the supply may still be relatively loose. Pay attention to the device maintenance situation after late August. The downstream start-up rate has rebounded overall except for acrylic acid. Among them, the start-up rate of octanol has rebounded significantly, the start-up rate of PP has increased slightly, and the start-up rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly. Later, the PP device of Jingbo and the acrylic acid device of Hongxin have the expectation of recovery. The short-term demand is supported, but the sustainability is questionable. Pay attention to the downstream stocking demand as the peak season approaches [2] - On the cost side, the crude oil price rebounds and fluctuates. Pay attention to macro trends such as geopolitical situations and the implementation of South Korea's cracking device capacity reduction policy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][25] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures include South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder start-up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start-up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors on August 21, 2025, including trading volume, position value, trading - position ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summaries by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides multiple figures related to plate liquidity, such as the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position quantity, position value, trading volume, and trading value of each plate [4][5] II. Stock Index Plate - On August 21, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 784.104 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.85% from the previous trading day; the position value was 1274.452 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.28% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 60.48% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On August 21, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 685.317 billion yuan, an increase of 0.61% from the previous trading day; the position value was 789.887 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 87.71% [1] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On August 21, 2025, the base metals plate had a trading volume of 351.198 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.81% from the previous trading day; the position value was 494.482 billion yuan, an increase of 0.17% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 92.24%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 196.454 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.97% from the previous trading day; the position value was 415.513 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 57.93% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On August 21, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 501.788 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.27% from the previous trading day; the position value was 423.462 billion yuan, an increase of 1.39% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 101.98% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On August 21, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 333.656 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.71% from the previous trading day; the position value was 581.797 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 55.30% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On August 21, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 299.616 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.47% from the previous trading day; the position value was 377.028 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 73.80% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,473 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. [1] - From the supply side, the domestic syngas - based EG production load has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate has risen above 70%. Overseas imports are expected to rebound to around 650,000 tons after August. From the demand side, the most pessimistic period of the off - season is over, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the short - term polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase. The balance sheets for August - September show a slight inventory build - up, with both supply and demand on an increasing trend. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,473 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,518 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day; the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$48/ton, up $1/ton; the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -69 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. The domestic syngas - based EG production load has returned to a high level, and the total EG operating rate has risen above 70%. [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data provided, only a chart (Figure 9: EG international price difference: US FOB - China CFR) is mentioned. [19] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The most pessimistic period of the demand off - season is over, with some local orders showing signs of improvement. It is expected that the short - term polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 547,000 tons, down 6,000 tons; according to Longzhong data on Thursday, it was 498,000 tons, down 37,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 54,000 tons, and 43,000 tons at the auxiliary ports. On Thursday, the total MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was 497,800 tons, down 4,600 tons from Monday and 36,700 tons from last Thursday. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous decline, crude oil prices showed signs of stabilization and rebound, driving the slight rise of FU and LU prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine, and the change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations. Without unexpected macro and geopolitical events, there is still downward pressure on the oil market in the medium term [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the fundamentals and market structure of high - sulfur oil are still weak, with limited short - term pressure. However, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and with the OPEC production increase trend, Middle East fuel oil shipments may still have room for growth, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. If the crack spread is fully adjusted to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains at a low level, but overseas supply has recovered, and the overseas market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. In the medium - term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.15% at 2732 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.19% at 3483 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil price rebounds drive the rise of FU and LU. Short - term uncertainty comes from Russia - US - Ukraine talks and US sanctions on Russia. Medium - term oil market has downward pressure without unexpected events [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals and market structure, short - term pressure is limited. Future supply may increase, but crack spread adjustment may improve the situation [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited current pressure and no shortage expectation. Overseas supply recovers, and there is resistance above the market in the medium term due to capacity and market - share replacement [1] Group 4: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Oscillation [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Oscillation [2] - No strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 5: Chart Information - There are multiple charts showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore fuel oil spot, swaps, and Chinese fuel oil futures (both high - sulfur and low - sulfur) [3][8][12][13][16][17][26][28] - Data sources for these charts are from Flush, Steel Union, and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][10][11][15][19][22][23][24][25][28][30][31][32]