甲醇日报 | 2025-12-03 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差-70元/吨（+5），太仓-内蒙-550价差-418元/吨（+9），太仓-鲁南-250价差-381元/ 吨（-4）；鲁南-太仓-100价差31元/吨（+4）；广东-华东-180价差-217元/吨（-9）；华东-川渝-200价差-233元/吨（-76）。 市场分析 港口方面。伊朗装置装置已集中兑现冬检，但仍要等待12月装船减少的兑现，因11月装船量级仍高，且11月部分 卸港延后至计入12月，12月进口压力预计年内高位，短期港口库存压力仍大。另外，关注太仓主流仓储企业对伊 朗船的接货意愿。 内地方面，煤头开工仍同期偏高，内地工厂库存小幅回升；MTO方面，阳煤MTO检修中，鲁西MTO低负荷状态； 关注联泓二期MTO年底投产进度。传统下游方面，醋酸开工底部回升，但仍处于偏低位；甲醛淡季负荷小幅回升， MTBE开工继续维持高位。 策略 单边：MA2605谨慎逢低做多套保 现实库存压力仍大，盘面冲高回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润595元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 opened at 96,840 yuan/ton and closed at 96,560 yuan/ton, with a -0.72% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 454,290 lots, and the open interest was 552,239 lots, compared to 543,633 lots the previous day. The basis was -2,240 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 8,992 lots, a change of 770 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 - 96,500 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 90,800 - 93,100 yuan/ton, also a 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,215 US dollars/ton, a -8 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. Downstream material factories mainly rely on long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with light market transactions. Annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, focusing on next year's price coefficient and purchase volume. In December, domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by about 3% month - on - month. In December, new energy vehicle sales are still good, and the energy storage market remains in a situation of strong supply and demand with a tight supply pattern. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate will continue to be destocked in December, but at a slower pace than in November [2]. Group 3: BYD's Battery Business - On the evening of December 1, BYD released its production and sales report for November 2025. In November 2025, BYD's total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries was about 27.669 GWh, an increase from 27.362 GWh in the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 23.13% and a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, breaking the second - highest historical record. From January to November 2025, BYD's cumulative installed capacity was about 258.282 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.9% [3]. Group 4: Strategy - In December, the destocking pace starts to slow down, but consumption has some support. Currently, the resumption of mining operations is in progress, and it is expected to resume within the year. There are significant differences in consumption forecasts for the first quarter. It is expected that the power battery segment will decline, while the energy storage segment will remain at a high level. Overall, consumption in the first quarter is expected to decline quarter - on - quarter, and there is a high possibility of lithium carbonate inventory accumulation. For single - side trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-03 盘面轮动，股指缩量 市场分析 关注"十五五"主线。宏观方面，国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业 体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材 料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。对外方面，中俄举行战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全 利益的重大问题全面、深入沟通，达成新的共识，增进了战略互信。双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度 共识。海外方面，特朗普表示，他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收低，沪指跌0.42%收于3897.71点，创业板指跌0.69%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，石油石化、轻工制造、家用电器行业领涨，传媒、有色金属、计算机、医药生物行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指涨0.59%报23413.67点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货贴水程度修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，特朗普近期公开表示拟于2026 ...

市场分析 海外现货升水再次走达到268美元/吨，出口利润扩大，国内现货升贴水持续表现为向好趋势，基本面方面全面偏向 利好，国内社会库存持续下滑，11月冶炼端产量环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体 现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格 的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经 全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不 改，再通胀尚未体现。 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：跨期正套。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 海外升水再次走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为268.39美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化180元/吨至22740元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日160元/吨至22680元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-30元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22670元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply - demand imbalance persists with high inventory and oversupply. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the downside is limited as it has reached a 5 - year low [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to low demand, high inventory, and a declining cost center, the price is also expected to stay in a low - level range. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low with limited downside [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,050 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 88,522 (- 57,307) lots, and the open interest was 121,924 (- 967) lots. The recent rebound is a minor repair after previous over - decline, driven by macro - level easing expectations such as the Fed's rate - cut anticipation and improved Sino - US relations. However, the supply - demand imbalance remains, and there is obvious support near the cost line [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is quiet with stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - plant profits, leading to cautious raw - material procurement and some plants considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mostly in the range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average due to consecutive price rebounds, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,351 (- 371) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,074 (- 1,290) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,460 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 95,108 (- 68,491) lots, and the open interest was 102,135 (- 4,171) lots. It showed a low - level oscillating upward trend, similar to Shanghai nickel, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term due to the coexistence of macro support and fundamental pressure [2]. - **Spot**: Affected by the "buy on rising" psychology, stainless - steel spot trading has improved, and prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets have increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,700 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is between 355 - 555 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for urea is "interval shock and bullish", the cross - period rating is "wait - and - see", and the cross - variety rating is "none" [3] Core View - Urea spot prices are firm, but new order transactions are slowing down. With the restart of some production facilities in the compound fertilizer industry and the entry of off - season storage, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved, and factory inventories have decreased. The export quota news at the end of the year improves the export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose [2] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On December 2, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1680 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1680 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1680 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 7 yuan/ton (-22), in Henan was - 7 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 7 yuan/ton (-12) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of December 2, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 2, 2025, the urea production profit was 150 yuan/ton (-10). The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.06% (+2.45%), and the melamine capacity utilization rate was 60.80% (-1.40%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. The export profit was 931 yuan/ton (-21) [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 2, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 2, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: The investment strategy is to expect prices to be volatile but trending stronger [3]. - Red dates: The investment strategy is neutral [8]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: Currently in a seasonal off - peak period during the transfer - to -出库 stage, with slow consumption in the terminal market and competition from low - priced citrus. However, due to the impact of the storage structure this season, price polarization is severe. With the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day holiday stocking, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date market is at a critical "new - old season transition" stage. The acquisition in Xinjiang is about 80% complete, and the supply in the market is sufficient. There is a strong expectation of a new - season production reduction, but the extent is undetermined, and the quality this year is better than last year. There is a large inventory pressure, and the market has a pessimistic outlook for the future [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9488 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.40%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The spot market of Fuji apples such as late Fuji is in a seasonal off - peak period. The western and Shandong regions are mainly shipping on a sporadic and on - demand basis, with low enthusiasm for merchants to purchase and pack, and the trading atmosphere is average. The sales in the distribution area are slow, and citrus has an obvious impact on medium - and low - grade apple products. It is expected to remain in an off - peak market in the short term, with stable prices [2]. Strategy - The price is expected to be volatile but trending stronger. Quality issues will be the key factor affecting the long - term apple market trend. In the short - to - medium term, with the upcoming holiday stocking, prices are expected to remain stable with an upward trend [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9110 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.61%. - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.50 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a strong upward trend yesterday. The acquisition progress of gray dates in Xinjiang has reached 80%, and the supply in the Hebei and Guangdong markets is sufficient. The new products are the main trading items, and the prices vary and tend to decline. The market is in a "new - old season transition" stage, with large inventory pressure and a pessimistic market outlook [7]. Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot products in the production area, the futures price may move towards the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to decline. The near - month contract may still have some room for decline [8].

农产品日报 | 2025-12-03 出栏维持高位，猪价延续震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11455元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.35%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.23元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-225，较前交易日变动-150；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.49元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.15元/公斤，现货基差LH01+35，较前交易日变动-110；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.50元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+45，较前交易日变动+40。 据农业农村部监测，12月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为127.82，比昨天上升0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为130.30，比昨天上升0.34个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.59元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；牛肉66.88 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；羊肉63.22元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.44元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%；白条鸡17.61 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.6%。 市场分析 ...

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - In the fourth quarter, the resumption of secondary lead production fell short of expectations, and primary lead producers carried out maintenance and were reluctant to sell, resulting in low inventories in the industry chain. The negative processing fees for lead concentrates provided effective cost support. The operating rate of lead-acid batteries rebounded month-on-month, but the terminal demand was average. The closure of the import window reduced the impact from overseas. Overall, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Price fluctuations were expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On December 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,225 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 2, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,145 yuan/ton and closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,077 lots, an increase of 13,295 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 47,601 lots, an increase of 414 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,230 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,950 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - Neutral, with price fluctuations expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - Sell wide straddle [3]

塞尔维亚NIS炼厂因制裁关停 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌68美分，收于每桶58.64美元，跌幅为1.15%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌72美分，收于每桶62.45美元，跌幅为1.14%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.75%，报450 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 针对美国总统特朗普当地时间12月2日声称哥伦比亚可能因毒品问题而"遭受攻击"的言论，哥伦比亚总统佩特 罗当天通过社交媒体警告说，切勿威胁哥方主权，"侵犯我们的主权即宣战"。当天早些时候，特朗普在白宫的内 阁会议上对媒体称，哥伦比亚境内的制毒窝点制造可卡因并销往美国，任何向美国"贩毒"的国家都将"遭受攻击"。 （来源：Bloomberg） 3、 塞尔维亚总统武契奇表示，已达成协议，将在本周末前确保俄罗斯持股的塞尔维亚石油公司（NIS）的支付交 易安全，美国并未暂停对NIS炼油厂的制裁，同时，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司在塞尔维亚的炼油厂将在数日内关 闭。（来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2025-12-03 4、 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯将继续以具有竞争力的价格 ...