农产品日报 | 2025-08-01 关注集团厂出栏节奏，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14075元/吨，较前交易日变动+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.08元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.27元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+5，较前交易日变动+270；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.22元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH09+145，较前交易日变动+200；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.48元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差LH09-595，较前交易日变动+160。 据农业农村部监测，7月31日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.92，比昨天上升0.06个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.95，比昨天上升0.07个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.45元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%；牛肉63.97 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉59.72元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.68元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.36元/公斤， 比昨天上升2.8%。 市场分析 综合来看， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term cost of fuel oil is strongly supported by the recent strong crude oil price, but the oil market may face a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance to the upside of oil prices if sanctions expectations are not fulfilled [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is currently weak, with sufficient supply and high inventory. Demand lacks highlights except for power plant peak - season purchases. However, the shrinkage of the East - West spread may tighten arbitrage cargo supply and support the Asia - Pacific market in the short term. Structurally favorable factors may lead to a stronger market if refinery demand recovers significantly [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited current benefits. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. In the medium term, abundant remaining capacity may lead to increased supply, and the market share may be gradually replaced by the shipping industry's carbon - neutral trend [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2933 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.38% at 3676 yuan/ton [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak fundamental situation, with a significant decline in cracking spreads from high levels, sufficient supply, and high inventory. Refinery demand has not shown large - scale improvement, but short - term support may come from reduced arbitrage cargo supply [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited positive factors. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. The market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant capacity and the carbon - neutral trend [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Cross - variety: Appropriate profit - taking for previous short positions in FU cracking spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) [3] - Cross - period: Gradual profit - taking for previous FU reverse arbitrage positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-01 成本端支撑偏强，支撑现货情绪 市场分析 1、7月31日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3659元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨11元/吨，涨幅 0.3%；持仓125992手，环比下降5504手，成交145613手，环比下降45926手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3870—4086元/吨；山东，3640—4070元/吨；华南，3580—3600元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日西北、山东、华南以及川渝市场沥青现货价格出现小幅上涨，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主。虽然沥 青自身无明显供需矛盾，但因为原油价格以及沥青期货维持偏强走势，利好沥青现货市场情绪。就沥青基本面具 体来看，整体供需两弱格局延续。一方面，成本坚挺环境下生产利润承压，炼厂供应增长仍受到限制；另一方面， 资金矛盾与降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍。不过库存仍处于低位，还未出现显著累库的信号（社会库存有一 定增加迹象），市场短期压力有限。但抛开成本端的带动外，沥青来自基本面的上行驱动有限。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [4]. - Supply: It slightly rebounded. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Demand: It slightly improved. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3, with 7 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, with 6 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases [4]. Non - manufacturing - Overall: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [5]. - Supply: Employment slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, while the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Demand: It recovered. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [10]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [10]. Demand: Focus on the Improvement of General Equipment and Construction Installation and Decoration - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [17]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 7 declined [17]. Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Non - ferrous Metals, Automobiles, and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in March remained unchanged at 48.0. Six industries improved month - on - month, while 9 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 4 industries improved month - on - month, while 11 declined [24]. Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - ferrous Metals and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in July was 46.4, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries saw price improvements, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in March decreased by 1.4 percentage points, and the overall profit continued to converge [31]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in July was 48.0, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 0.7 percentage points. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit in March decreased by 0.6 percentage points. The service industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points [31]. Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of Postal Services and Textile and Apparel - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3. Seven industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Six industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases [40]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. By industry, 6 industries saw inventory increases, and 9 saw decreases [40]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in July, new orders, production, prices, and inventory, along with their changes and five - year percentiles [8]. - Tables present detailed PMI data for various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others, covering aspects like new orders, production, employment, prices, and inventory [51][56][60].

联储分裂加剧，汇率 拐点未现 华泰期货研究院 2025年08月01日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率回落，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 3M 2025/07/31 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250730（%） 20250723（%） 20250702（%） 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints were presented in the given text 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Option Trading Volume - On July 30, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.7247 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.3877 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.5494 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.108 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.5279 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0555 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1241 million contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.2491 million contracts [1][19] 3.2 Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.55, with a month - on - month change of - 0.15; the open interest PCR was reported at 1.04, with a month - on - month change of + 0.04; the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 0.63, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05; the open interest PCR was reported at 1.10, with a month - on - month change of + 0.04; and so on for other types of options [2][29] 3.3 Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 17.19%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 17.10%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.73%; the VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 21.09%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.53%; and so on for other types of options [3][45]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's threat of imposing separate tariff penalties on India's Russian oil purchases is a fabricated tariff bargaining chip. Given that the EU and Japan are still importing Russian natural gas, India is unlikely to significantly reduce its Russian crude oil purchases [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Crude oil futures prices rose: NYMEX September - delivery light crude oil futures rose 79 cents to $70.00 per barrel, a 1.14% increase; ICE September - delivery Brent crude oil futures rose 73 cents to $73.24 per barrel, a 1.01% increase; SC crude oil main contract rose 1.66% to 533 yuan per barrel [1] - UAE's Fujeirah Port: As of the week ending July 28, the total refined oil inventory decreased by 3.477 million barrels to 17.048 million barrels, with light distillates, medium distillates, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories all decreasing [1] - Trump's statements: He will give Russia 10 days to reach an agreement with Ukraine, or else impose additional tariffs on Russia; he plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US starting August 1 and warns of additional penalties for India's continued purchase of Russian energy [1] - India: Indian refiners are seeking government clarification on whether their Russian oil purchases will be affected by Trump's threat [1] - Japan: As of the week ending July 26, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 482,030 kiloliters, gasoline inventory decreased by 131,669 kiloliters, kerosene inventory increased by 58,973 kiloliters, and the average refinery operating rate dropped to 82.7% [1] Investment Logic - India has become a focal point in tariff negotiations and secondary tariffs on Russian oil purchases. It imports nearly 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day. Trump's threat of tariff penalties on India's Russian oil purchases is a fabricated bargaining chip, and India is unlikely to significantly reduce its purchases [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil; macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil; Middle - East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Attention should be paid to the impact of new US tariffs on upstream prices, including the suspension of minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods and the change in coal prices [1] - Keep an eye on the progress of the downstream parenting consumption policy in the service industry, with localities set to open parenting subsidy applications in late August [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production Industry - On July 30 (local time), US President Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods. Starting from August 29, applicable tariffs will be levied on imported goods worth $800 or less sent by non - international postal network methods, and parcels sent via the international postal system will be taxed according to ad - valorem or specific duties [1] - In mid - July, coal inventories at main production and transfer areas continued to decline, while downstream steel and coking enterprises had good procurement enthusiasm and their inventories increased steadily. Domestic coal prices rose, and international coal prices fluctuated. In late July, the spot price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal at Bohai Rim ports was about 650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of June; the comprehensive price of coking and fat coal in Shanxi was 1290 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the end of June [1] Service Industry - The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the parenting subsidy system and fertility support measures. Localities will open parenting subsidy applications in late August, and localities with higher subsidy standards than the national standard can continue to implement them after evaluation and filing [1] Upstream - Energy: International oil prices rose [2] - Black: Prices of glass and rebar increased [2] Mid - stream - Chemical: The operating rate of PX decreased [3] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal decline in commercial housing sales in first - and second - tier cities [3] - Service: An increase in the number of domestic flights during the summer vacation [3] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Data shows the credit spreads of various industries as of July 2, including industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, chemical, etc., with different trends and quantiles [46] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - It includes price indicators of multiple industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, real estate, etc., showing the price, frequency, update time, year - on - year change and 5 - day trend of each indicator as of July 30 [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is generally quiet, but the remaining inventory is at a historical low, which provides some support for prices. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date futures rose slightly. The second and third batches of flower setting in the production area are better than expected, and the arrival volume in the sales area is small during the off - season. The new - season production is estimated to decline, and attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and the last batch of flowers [7]. Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7915 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.09% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10805 yuan/ton, a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.14% [4]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The remaining inventory in the warehouse is low, the early - maturing apples have quality problems, and the number of new - season bagged fruits is slightly lower than the previous season. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. However, the low inventory supports the price. This week, attention should be paid to the game between merchants' price - pressing and fruit farmers' acceptance, and the price performance of QinYang apples in the west after centralized listing [2]. Red dates - The red date futures rose slightly yesterday. The second and third batches of flower setting in the production area are better than expected, and the arrival volume in the sales area is small during the off - season. The new - season jujubes are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, and the overall production is estimated to decline by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024, with an estimated output of 56 - 62 million tons. Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and the last batch of flowers [7]. Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since the current remaining inventory in the production area is low and the expected output of the new season changes little from last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Pay attention to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. Recently, funds are very sensitive to the growth of new - season red dates, and the news from the production area has a great impact on the futures market. The futures and spot prices may fluctuate strongly in the future under the expectation of production decline and the reality of improved spot transactions. Pay close attention to the growth of new - season red dates [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is oscillating to build a bottom, but the upward driving force is still insufficient. Crude oil prices have been rising continuously, driving the PG market to rebound, but the fundamentals of LPG itself are weak, and the market driving force is insufficient. The overseas supply remains abundant, the domestic commodity volume decline is limited, and the overall supply is sufficient. The demand for civil gas is in a off - season atmosphere, and the combustion demand is weak. Although the profit of PDH in deep - processing has improved marginally and the operating rate has rebounded, the subsequent growth momentum is limited [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 30, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4150 - 4500 yuan/ton; North China market, 4530 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4280 - 4600 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4450 - 4640 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 550 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton) and 528 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4326 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton) and 4153 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane were 543 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton) and 521 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4271 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton) and 4098 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - The spot price of LPG in East China remained stable yesterday, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair. The rise in crude oil and import costs improved the mentality of market participants, and their enthusiasm for entering the market increased [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating, pay attention to the signals of the market bottom - building; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]