化工日报 | 2025-06-06 乙烷消息扰动下EG冲高回落 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4283元/吨（较前一交易日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.21%），EG华东市场现货价4430 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+15元/吨，幅度+0.34%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）130元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。 早间受美国乙烷出口受阻消息影响，乙二醇盘面快速拉涨，现货高位成交至4465元/吨附近，随后市场趋于冷静， 盘面震荡回落，另外隆众口径EG港口库存较周一增长3.77万吨，EG价格回落。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨（环比-8美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为92元/吨（环比-57 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.1万吨（环比-6.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.2万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.8万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-06 港口延续累库 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润598元/吨（+18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1893元/吨（+18），内蒙北线基差234元/吨（+29），内蒙南线1880元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2195元/吨（+0）， 鲁南基差136元/吨（+11）；河南2070元/吨（+0），河南基差11元/吨（+11）；河北2060元/吨（+0），河北基差61元/ 吨（+11）。隆众内地工厂库存370490吨（+15540），西北工厂库存234500吨（+18500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单262180 吨（+12288），西北工厂待发订单150000吨（+21500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2307元/吨（+5），太仓基差48元/吨（+16），CFR中国262美元/吨（+2），华东进口价差-8元/ 吨（+13），常州甲醇2290元/吨；广东甲醇2295元/吨（-5），广东基差36元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存581200吨（+58240）， 江苏港口库存281300吨（+51300），浙江港口库存141000 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current expectation of a production reduction is weakening during the bagging stage, but weather still poses a disturbance. In the short term, apple prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the bagging progress, weather changes, and other factors [3][4] - For red dates, the current growth of red dates is relatively normal, and there are no adverse conditions affecting their growth. With the end of the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The red date market is in a traditional off - season, with prices at historical lows and a bearish overall commodity sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor weather disturbances for potential market opportunities [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton or - 0.52% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of 80 first and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 490, a change of + 40 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 1890, a change of + 40 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed lower yesterday. The bagging work is in progress, with the bagging quantity in Shandong slightly higher than last year and that in the western region lower. Seasonal fruits have impacted apple consumption, and the enthusiasm of merchants for procurement is average. The apple de - stocking speed has slowed down compared to the same period last year, but the remaining inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The new - season apple production has uncertainties due to the impact of extreme weather on fruit setting [2][3] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. In the short term, consider apple prices to be in a fluctuating trend [4] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8,795 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton or - 0.17% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 495, a change of + 15 from the previous day [5] Market Analysis - Red date futures closed slightly lower yesterday. The growth of jujube trees in the main producing areas is good, and the supply of goods in the sales area is continuous with a high cost - performance ratio. After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The red date market is in a traditional off - season, with prices at historical lows and a bearish overall commodity sentiment [6][7] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. Closely monitor weather disturbances for potential market opportunities [8]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core View The Fed officials have significant differences in future monetary policy, and the market is also concerned about future overall demand and economic outlook. Although current inflation data is not affected by tariffs, it reflects a decline in consumer confidence. Trump's changeable policies will continuously affect future inflation expectations. Therefore, in the current situation, gold and silver are recommended to be bought on dips for hedging, and the gold-silver ratio can be shorted at high levels [8]. Summary by Sections Market News and Key Data - US initial jobless claims soared to an 8-month high, and the US trade deficit shrank by 55.5% to $61.6 billion due to Trump's tariffs [1] - The European Central Bank cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points, and Lagarde hinted that the rate-cutting cycle would end [1] - Trump said it was difficult to achieve an immediate ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine in a short time and hinted at possible sanctions on both sides [1] - Silver prices rose sharply, breaking through the $36/ounce mark for the first time since February 2012, possibly due to Trump's announcement of raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 5, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (SHFE) main contract opened at 782.40 yuan/gram, closed at 783.72 yuan/gram, up 0.17% from the previous trading day [2] - The SHFE silver main contract opened at 8454 yuan/kg, closed at 8473 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day [2] - During the night session, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 780.78 yuan/gram, down 0.46% from the afternoon close [2] - The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8715 yuan/kg, up 2.89% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 5, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.37%, down 0.09% from the previous trading day [3] - The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.48%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long position decreased by 44 lots and the short position decreased by 16 lots [4] - The total trading volume of SHFE gold contracts decreased by 3.24% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2502 contract, the long position decreased by 78 lots and the short position decreased by 169 lots [4] - The total trading volume of SHFE silver contracts decreased by 27.07% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 935.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] - The silver ETF position increased by 120.16 tons to 14,672.53 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On June 5, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -3.37 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -525.99 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 92.50, up 0.05% from the previous trading day [6] - The overseas gold-silver ratio was 98.03, up 0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On June 5, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market increased by 3.63% from the previous trading day [7] - The trading volume of silver increased by 4.19% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 19,510 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 64,440 kg [7]

原油日报 | 2025-06-06 美国限制乙烷丁烷出口，中美对话缓和市场情绪 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨52美分，收于每桶63.37美元，涨幅为0.83%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨48美分，收于每桶65.34美元，涨幅为0.74%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.07%，报463元/桶。 2、欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2%，符合市场预期，为连续第7次会议降息。主要再融资利率和边际 贷款利率分别从2.4%和2.65%下调至2.15%和2.4%，处于2023年初以来的最低水平。这是对通胀放缓以及特朗普贸 易战对欧元区经济增长威胁的回应。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国上周首次申请失业救济的人数意外增加，达到自去年10月以来的最高水平，这进一步表明就业市场正在降 温。美国至5月31日当周初请失业金人数增加0.8万人至24.7万人，高于市场预期的23.5万。最近的数据和调查表明， 美国经济活动正在放缓，未来几周初请人数的持续增长可能就是一个迹象，表明裁员正在增加。四周均值也升至 23.5万，为去年10月以来的最高水平。续请失业金人数略有下降，但仍处于 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-06 策略 单边：塑料谨慎偏空。 跨期：无。 成本端支撑松动，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7034元/吨（-15），PP主力合约收盘价为6911元/吨（-37），LL华北现货为7090 元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7080元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为56元/吨（+35），LL 华东基差为66元/吨（+15）， PP华东基差为169元/吨（+37）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为77.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为77.0%（+1.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为322.1元/吨（+68.1），PP油制生产利润为62.1元/吨（+68.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-231.6元/吨（-28.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-322.9元/吨（+55.3），PP进口利润为-516.0元/吨（+12.2），PP出口利润为16.1美元/吨 （-1.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.9%（+0.3%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.7%（- ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-06 盘面震荡筑底，市场驱动仍不足 策略 单边：震荡偏弱，PG位置较低下方空间有限 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 市场分析 1、 6月5日地区价格：山东市场，4530—4690 ；东北市场，4060—4150 ；华北市场，4500—4580 ；华东市场， 4350—4600 ；沿江市场，4550—4650 ；西北市场，4250—4550 ；华南市场，4548—4650 。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，稳定，丁烷547美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4802元/吨，跌2元/吨，丁烷4328元/吨，跌1元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷609美元/吨，跌1美元/吨，丁烷550美元/吨，稳定，折合人民 币价格丙烷4818元/吨，跌9元/吨，丁烷4351元/吨，跌2元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 欧佩克会议后原油价格反弹，对能源板块商品形成提振。就LPG市场而言，由于前期跌幅较大、基差偏高，期 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-05 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期权成交量 2025-06-04，上证50ETF期权成交量为63.45万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为55.46万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为95.40万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为3.93万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为69.42万张；上证50股指期权成交量为1.43万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为4.41万张；中证1000期权总成交量为12.31万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.82，环比变动为-0.14；持仓量PCR报0.97，环比变动为+0.00； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.79，环比变动为-0.12；持仓量PCR报0.85，环比变动为+0.02； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.89，环比变动为-0.15；持仓量PCR报1.18，环比变动为+0.11 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.92 ，环比变动为-1.00；持仓量PCR报0.87；环比变动为-0.03； 创业 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of green infrastructure pilot projects, such as the first - batch pilot work of new power system construction organized by the National Energy Administration [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the promotion of pension service - related programs, like the release of an international standard on the digital economy from an aging perspective led by China [1] - The credit spreads of the entire industry fluctuate slightly [3] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - level Event Overview Production Industry - The National Energy Administration is carrying out the first - batch pilot work on new power system construction, focusing on national hub nodes and non - hub nodes with good energy resources. It aims to increase the proportion of green electricity in data centers through the "green power aggregated supply" model [1] Service Industry - The International Organization for Standardization has released an international standard on the digital economy from an aging perspective led by China, which provides specific suggestions for elderly people's high - frequency digital economic scenarios [1] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Coal inventories are at a three - year high recently [2] Mid - stream - The PX开工率 is continuously rising, and the urea开工率 is stable and at a three - year high; the asphalt开工率 is rising; the开工 rate of pig product processing is increasing [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have a seasonal rebound but are still at a near - three - year low; the number of domestic flights has decreased [2] 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the entire industry fluctuate slightly [3] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 69.83 | 80.55 | 75.09 | 78.86 | 63.16 | 1.10 | | Mining | 36.41 | 46.76 | 44.37 | 49.14 | 42.27 | 11.50 | | Chemical Industry | 67.53 | 68.59 | 62.96 | 64.22 | 57.43 | 0.00 | | Steel | 43.64 | 57.03 | 52.34 | 57.01 | 49.92 | 11.40 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 47.06 | 56.23 | 53.30 | 60.33 | 53.49 | 14.60 | | Electronics | 55.98 | 78.46 | 65.50 | 79.10 | 67.58 | 24.80 | | Automobile | 64.33 | 76.43 | 45.92 | 52.66 | 44.05 | 0.00 | | Household Appliances | 44.70 | 53.93 | 44.90 | 53.92 | 47.29 | 12.30 | | Food and Beverage | 42.71 | 43.83 | 43.40 | 46.81 | 39.58 | 4.10 | | Textile and Apparel | 50.19 | 57.43 | 50.48 | 56.71 | 50.28 | 4.90 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 56.31 | 198.86 | 167.29 | 166.01 | 156.61 | 8.30 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 57.67 | 65.83 | 67.40 | 74.32 | 66.68 | 17.60 | | Public Utilities | 26.96 | 32.22 | 30.73 | 34.60 | 29.06 | 13.70 | | Transportation | 33.79 | 36.99 | 34.76 | 39.07 | 33.24 | 7.30 | | Real Estate | 403.85 | 187.61 | 146.74 | 126.56 | 113.61 | 6.50 | | Commercial Trade | 48.40 | 52.24 | 48.09 | 52.23 | 45.37 | 5.30 | | Leisure Services | 75.14 | 106.06 | 107.84 | 128.21 | 120.84 | 98.00 | | Banking | 24.57 | 26.56 | 19.97 | 19.61 | 17.94 | 4.10 | | Non - banking Finance | 30.74 | 34.45 | 32.24 | 36.24 | 30.34 | 7.10 | | Comprehensive | 68.97 | 51.39 | 46.45 | 52.02 | 46.01 | 2.50 | | Building Materials | 34.78 | 46.19 | 43.78 | 48.38 | 40.81 | 9.60 | | Building Decoration | 46.17 | 56.39 | 52.42 | 58.00 | 52.43 | 12.20 | | Electrical Equipment | 54.28 | 84.01 | 78.85 | 84.52 | 78.64 | 39.40 | | Mechanical Equipment | 37.35 | 43.94 | 41.86 | 49.79 | 44.51 | 25.20 | | Computer | 69.00 | 74.00 | 62.09 | 64.12 | 53.12 | 0.00 | | Media | 228.94 | 44.27 | 43.19 | 47.55 | 40.77 | 0.10 | | Communication | 243.53 | 36.87 | 28.67 | 29.93 | 23.64 | 0.00 | [45] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Update Time | Price | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | 5/15 | 2304.3 | 0.81% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | 5/15 | 0.8 | 4.65% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | 5/15 | 8588.0 | 0.59% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | 5/15 | 14512.3 | 2.56% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | 5/15 | 20.9 | - 0.10% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | 5/15 | 78938.3 | | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | 5/15 | 22880.0 | 0.61% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | 5/15 | 20366.7 | 3.75% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | 5/15 | 126525.0 | 1.42% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | 5/15 | 16906.3 | 1.12% | | | Steel | Spot price of rebar | Daily | 5/15 | 3189.9 | 0.86% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | 5/15 | 793.3 | 2.20% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | 5/12 | 3377.5 | 0.30% | | | Building Materials | Spot price of glass | Daily | 5/15 | 14.8 | - 2.50% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | 5/15 | 14838.3 | 2.63% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | 5/15 | 840.4 | 1.06% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | 5/15 | 63.2 | 8.75% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | 5/15 | | 8.13% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | 5/12 | 4278.0 | - 0.37% | | | | Coal price | Daily | 5/15 | 777.0 | - 1.40% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | 5/15 | 4991.7 | 6.47% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | 5/15 | 7508.3 | 0.58% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | 5/15 | 1946.7 | 1.83% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | 5/15 | 1462.5 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | Daily | 5/15 | 143.5 | - 0.93% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | 5/15 | 116.5 | 0.52% | | | | Concrete price index: National index | Daily | 5/15 | 99.8 | - 0.53% | | [46]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the apple industry, the current expectation of apple production reduction has weakened during the bagging stage, but weather still poses uncertainties. In the short - term, apple prices are expected to fluctuate. The apple market's main trend is stable, with seasonal factors and weather affecting the market [2][3] - For the红枣 industry, the current growth of jujubes is normal, and the market is in a traditional off - season with high inventory. The prices have fallen below the warehouse receipt cost of the 2024 production season. Attention should be paid to weather - related market opportunities [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,750 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton or 1.21% from the previous day. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Jujube - Futures: The closing price of the jujube 2509 contract yesterday was 8,810 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton or 2.14% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The bagging work is in progress in the producing areas. Seasonal fruits are on the market, affecting apple consumption. The apple de - stocking speed has slowed compared to last year, and the inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The new - season apple production is uncertain due to previous extreme weather [2] Jujube - The jujube futures price rose significantly yesterday. The main producing areas' jujube trees are growing well. The off - season has arrived after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the inventory has slightly increased. The jujube prices have been falling under multiple factors [6] Group 5: Strategies Apple - Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider apple prices to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Jujube - Adopt a neutral strategy. Closely monitor market opportunities caused by weather disturbances [7]