农产品日报 | 2025-08-01 库存果价格走弱，红枣销区少量到货 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7814元/吨，较前一日变动-101元/吨，幅度-1.28%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-214，较前一日变动+101；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动-0.30元/斤，现货基差AP10+1186，较前一日变动-499。 近期市场资讯，苹果现货市场运行情况变化不大，库存货源成交仍显一般，早熟果价格高开低走。西部产区货源 剩余不多，现货商发自存货源为主。山东产区客商数量不多，拿货仍显谨慎，多挑拣压价拿货，整体出库速度不 快。早熟果来看，纸袋秦阳陆续上量，部分产区价格小幅回落，个别产区返青现象严重。销区市场需求不佳，应 季水果冲击依旧明显。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。山 东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.3元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.5-4.5元/斤，80# ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for natural rubber (RU and NR) is neutral. The rating for butadiene rubber (BR) is also neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the cost - side support has weakened as rainfall in Thailand's main production areas has decreased and raw material output has rebounded. Although the recent arrival volume in China has declined, demand is weak due to reduced raw material procurement by tire factories and a slight increase in finished - product inventory. After the macro - environment weakens, the supply - demand situation of natural rubber returns to a weak pattern [4] - For butadiene rubber, the supply will continue to increase as some plants have restarted and private plants have increased their production loads. Demand is weak, with reduced raw material procurement by tire factories and a slight increase in finished - product inventory. Some tire enterprises have maintenance plans, which may lead to a decline in tire operating rates. The supply - demand situation of butadiene rubber is weak [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,560 yuan/ton, a change of - 385 yuan/ton from the previous day. The NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 400 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was $1,760/ton, a change of - $35/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was $1,710/ton, a change of - $15/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Natural rubber imports in China: In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first half of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.386 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 804,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; smoked sheet exports were 196,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%; latex exports were 377,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Exports to China totaled 557,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 355,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 57,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 307%; latex exports to China totaled 143,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77% [2] - Passenger car market: In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] - European replacement tire market: In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 31, 2025, the RU basis was - 10 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 310 yuan/ton (- 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 4,701 yuan/ton (+ 399.82), the NR basis was 308.00 yuan/ton (+ 59.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 400), the price of mixed rubber was 14,250 yuan/ton (- 300), the price of 3L spot was 14,650 yuan/ton (- 250). The STR20 was quoted at $1,760/ton (- 35). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (- 150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,150 yuan/ton (- 100) [3] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 65.33 baht/kg (- 0.26), the price of Thai latex was 54.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 47.70 baht/kg (- 0.80), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 6.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.26% (- 2.97%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.98% (- 0.08%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,702 tons (+ 4,602.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 640,384 tons (+ 5,798), the RU futures inventory was 182,020 tons (- 4,620), and the NR futures inventory was 37,398 tons (+ 707) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 31, 2025, the BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (- 20), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,800 yuan/ton (- 300), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 1,409 yuan/ton (- 200) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.46% (+ 4.73%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,520 tons (+ 50), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,800 tons (- 1,050) [4]

FICC日报 | 2025-08-01 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造 业保持扩张。7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引。7月31日，市场全天震荡调整， 三大指数午后均跌超1%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超4200股飘绿，今日成交逾1.96万亿。商品期货收盘，焦煤 主力合约跌停，玻璃跌超8%，多晶硅跌超7%，硅铁、纯碱、工业硅跌超6%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - As the summer power generation demand declines, Middle - East crude oil exports will gradually increase. With the end of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 74 cents to $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 71 cents to $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.71% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran has set new conditions for restarting nuclear talks with the Trump administration. The Iranian Foreign Minister said the US must compensate for the losses during the Iran - Israel conflict last month, explain its attack during the talks, and guarantee no similar attacks in the future [1] - Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil last week due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats [1] - President Trump said the fastest way to end the Gaza humanitarian crisis is for Hamas to surrender and release hostages [1] - In the fourth quarter, Asia is expected to increase imports of US WTI crude oil because the price increase of Middle - East crude oil has opened an arbitrage window. Western Oil has sold WTI crude oil to Japan's Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for October delivery [1] Investment Logic - As the end of summer approaches, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October, unless Saudi Arabia deliberately controls exports. The impact of the maintenance of the Upper Zakum oil field in the UAE is limited [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean futures market continued to decline due to external shocks, cooling weather - related speculation, weak downstream demand, expectations of policy - driven soybean reserve sales, and a slowdown in economic recovery [2] - The peanut market showed a slight decline. Low old - crop inventory and reduced imports supported some holders' price - holding intentions, but new - season pressure led to inventory clearance needs. Downstream demand remained weak [3] Group 3: Soybean Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The closing price of the soy - one 2509 contract was 4131.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 yuan/ton (- 0.53%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 169, up 22 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - Soybean prices in the Northeast market were stable, with most of the remaining grain consumed and limited inventory among traders. Prices in different regions such as Harbin, Shuangyashan, and Jiamusi remained unchanged [1] Group 4: Peanut Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8082.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day. The peanut spot average price was 8580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 118.00, up 24.00 (+ 25.53%) from the previous day [3] Market Information - Peanut spot prices in domestic markets were generally stable, with low trading volume. Prices in different regions such as Henan, Liaoning, and Shandong remained unchanged [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The downstream PS and ABS开工率 remains low, and the demand for EB is still weak. The fundamentals of styrene are weaker than those of pure benzene [1][3] - The proportion of production capacity of plants over 20 years old in the production of pure benzene and styrene is 16% and 6%, respectively. The port inventory of BZ continues to consolidate without further inventory accumulation. The short - term downstream demand for BZ is acceptable, but the further increase in BZ processing fees is limited due to factors such as downstream finished product inventory pressure, port inventory pressure, and the pressure of South Korea's shipments to China [3] - The port inventory of styrene continued to rise during the week, and the domestic EB开工率 remained at a high level. It is necessary to wait for the production profit to be further compressed and production to be reduced for re - balancing [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 204 yuan/ton (+23), and the styrene main contract basis is 43 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1] - The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 75 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 159 dollars/ton (- 10 dollars/ton), and pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 146 dollars/ton (- 10 dollars/ton) [1] - The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 222 yuan/ton (- 56 yuan/ton), and it is expected to be gradually compressed [1] 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 170,000 tons (- 100 tons), styrene East China port inventory is 164,000 tons (+13,300 tons), and styrene East China commercial inventory is 67,500 tons (+11,300 tons), which is in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products: caprolactam operating rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%), phenol operating rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%), aniline operating rate is 73.94% (+0.28%), and adipic acid operating rate is 64.80% (+0.00%) [1] - The operating rate of styrene is 78.9% (+0.1%) [1] 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 249 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 71 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 320 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%), PS operating rate is 53.30% (+1.70%), and ABS operating rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%), which is at a seasonal low [2] 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1615 yuan/ton (+150), phenol - ketone production profit is - 610 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and adipic acid production profit is - 1381 yuan/ton (- 9) [1]

Group 1: Market Analysis - On July 31, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4580; Northeast market, 4140 - 4500; North China market, 4530 - 4650; East China market, 4280 - 4600; Yangtze River market, 4400 - 4620; Northwest market, 4100 - 4350; South China market, 4398 - 4500 [1] - In the second half of August 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 545 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton, and butane was 513 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4290 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, and butane was 4038 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 538 USD/ton, down 5 USD/ton, and butane was 506 USD/ton, down 15 USD/ton. In RMB, propane was 4234 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 3983 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [1] - Saudi Aramco announced the August CP price, with both propane and butane significantly lower than July. Propane was 520 USD/ton, down 55 USD/ton from last month, and butane was 490 USD/ton, also down 55 USD/ton. Domestic LPG prices partially fell, with East China's LPG maintaining stable sales. The upstream's shipping pressure was not high, but the high import volume and expected CP decline suppressed market sentiment. The sharp drop in CP prices reflected the weak fundamentals of LPG, with abundant overseas supply, no significant reduction in domestic production, and high imports and port inventories. The demand for civil gas was in the off - season, and the combustion demand was weak. Although the profit of PDH in deep - processing improved marginally and the operating rate increased, the subsequent growth momentum was limited [1] Group 2: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating, pay attention to bottom - building signals on the disk. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]

Group 1: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the glass futures market dropped significantly, with the main 2509 contract of glass futures falling 8.22%. The operating rate of float glass enterprises this week was 75%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes from the previous week. Currently, glass supply shows no sign of contraction, and the real - estate sector drags down the rigid demand, while speculative demand has increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing but remains at a high level. In the long run, the glass supply - demand situation remains relatively loose [1]. - The soda ash futures market also dropped significantly yesterday, with the main 2509 contract of soda ash futures falling 6.45%. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from the previous week, the output was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week. Currently, soda ash production remains at a high level and is in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, as projects are gradually implemented, the soda ash capacity may be further released. Meanwhile, due to the "anti - involution" impact in the photovoltaic industry, there is an expectation of production cuts, and soda ash consumption may further weaken, increasing the inventory pressure later [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the collective sharp decline of black commodities drove the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures to hit the daily limit. The main contract of silicomanganese futures dropped 170 yuan/ton from the previous day, closing at 5946 yuan/ton. In the spot market, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese production increased month - on - month, hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The shipping from Australia in the manganese ore segment has basically recovered. After the silicomanganese price was boosted by macro - sentiment, the hedging willingness of enterprises increased, but with the decline of coking coal and coke futures, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent [3]. - Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5696 yuan/ton, a drop of 312 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the price remained stable, and the cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The demand for ferrosilicon remained resilient, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, but with the sharp decline of coking coal, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent. In the long run, the ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 2: Strategy Glass and Soda Ash - The strategy for glass is to be weakly volatile [2]. - The strategy for soda ash is to be weakly volatile [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The strategy for silicomanganese is to be weakly volatile [4]. - The strategy for ferrosilicon is to be weakly volatile [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific rating for inter - period and inter - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment has eased, but the fundamentals of propylene have not improved significantly, and the propylene market is mainly in a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists, demand is lack of resilience, and the cost side has short - term support but also uncertainties. Propylene prices may continue to fluctuate weakly [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6545 yuan/ton (-25), East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (+0), North China spot price is 6245 yuan/ton (-5), East China basis is -195 yuan/ton (+25), and North China basis is -300 yuan/ton (+20) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 73% (-1%), PDH capacity utilization has increased, and production has increased month - on - month. The profit margins of different production methods vary, and the operating rates of related production methods also show different trends [1][2] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Propylene import profit is -257 yuan/ton (-74), and the price differences between different regions (such as South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR) are presented [1][39] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Different downstream products have different operating rates and profit margins. For example, PP powder operating rate is 36% (-2.95%) with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane operating rate is 73% (+0%) with a production profit of -26 yuan/ton (+104), etc. [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Propylene factory inventory is 31750 tons (+1520) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of EG followed the decline of coking coal, with the closing price of the EG main contract at 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market at 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China continued to decline. According to CCF, it was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period) [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production plants are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the import is expected to increase. On the demand side, the polyester load is expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a weakening pressure on the fundamentals in August due to high supply [2]. - The trading strategy is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side due to the weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal, and wait for coking coal to digest the over - increase of last week [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,414 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,492 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 68 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$39/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the coal - based syngas - to - EG production profit was 102 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - The domestic syngas - to - ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO - EG co - production plants have plans to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high [2]. International Price Difference No information provided. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal carried out centralized replenishment, and the inventory pressure of filament was greatly relieved. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 52.1 tons (down 1.2 tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong, it was 42.7 tons (down 4.8 tons from the previous period). Affected by the typhoon, the arrival of ships was postponed, and the inventory continued to decline [1].