Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View The Fed maintained the interest rate level unchanged, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. If neither interest rates nor inflation change significantly, the consolidation period of gold may be extended. Silver generally follows the trend of gold, but in the long term, there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If there is a relaxation of tariff tensions and a slight increase in risk sentiment, silver may benefit and show a stronger trend than gold. However, the silver price may be dragged down by the decline in Comex copper prices, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [1][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed announced at the FOMC meeting early today that it would maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but governors Waller and Bowman voted against it and advocated for a rate cut, indicating differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate path. Fed Chair Powell avoided giving guidance on a September rate cut at the press conference, stating that the current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position, emphasizing data dependence, and suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is temporary [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.70 yuan/gram and closed at 773.78 yuan/gram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session of the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 771.30 yuan/gram and closed at 770.68 yuan/gram, a 0.32% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,193.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,192.00 yuan/kg, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 689,866 lots, and the open interest was 392,370 lots. The night session of the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,145 yuan/kg and closed at 9,090 yuan/kg, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 30, 2025, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 4.34%, a change of -0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.44%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On July 30, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,141 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 607 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 254,236 lots, a change of -7.59% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,144 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,475 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 843,356 lots, a change of 14.14% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - In the precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF holdings were 955.37 tons yesterday, a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,149.90 tons, a decrease of 24.02 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On July 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -9.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -719.79 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 84.18, a change of 0.34% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 87.25, a change of -0.34% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On the previous trading day (July 30, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 26,258 kg, a change of -30.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 281,690 kg, a change of -38.98% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,380 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,960 kg [7]. Investment Strategies - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position in the range of 750 yuan/gram - 762 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Although the silver price may be dragged down by the decline in Comex copper prices, investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,900 yuan/kg - 8,950 yuan/kg [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene and styrene units over 20 years old account for 16% and 6% of the production capacity respectively, with BZ's old - capacity mainly from Sinopec and PetroChina. BZ port inventory was consolidating at the beginning of the week, with no further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ was okay, but there was still some pressure on finished - product inventory and port inventory, and the pressure of South Korea's shipments to China was high, so the room for further increase in BZ processing fees was limited. For styrene, port inventory continued to rise in the middle of the week, the port basis of EB remained weak, and the inter - period spread continued to weaken. Domestically, EB production was at a relatively high level, while the demand side saw an increase in the operation rate of three major hard plastics, a reduction in PS inventory pressure, and ABS still had inventory pressure. Styrene's fundamentals were weaker than those of pure benzene [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene's main contract basis was - 227 yuan/ton (+29), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 was - 70 yuan/ton (+0). The difference between near - month BZ paper goods and far - end BZ2603 futures was recommended to be reverse - arbitraged at high prices. EB's main contract basis was 28 yuan/ton (+47), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread was recommended for reverse - arbitrage [1][4] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee was 169 dollars/ton (-4), FOB South Korea processing fee was 156 dollars/ton (-4), and the US - South Korea price difference was 95.9 dollars/ton (-7). Styrene's non - integrated production profit was - 166 yuan/ton (+29), and it was expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread was recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][4] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Inventory and Operation Rate - Pure benzene's port inventory was 17.00 tons (-0.10), and its operation rate was not provided. Styrene's East China port inventory was 164,000 tons (+13,300), East China commercial inventory was 67,500 tons (+11,300), and the operation rate was 78.8% (+0.5%) [1] 4. Styrene's Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit was 209 yuan/ton (-59), PS production profit was - 91 yuan/ton (-59), and ABS production profit was 288 yuan/ton (-21). EPS operation rate was 55.21% (+2.02), PS operation rate was 51.60% (+1.00), and ABS operation rate was 66.82% (+0.92), with downstream operation at a seasonal low [2] 5. Pure Benzene's Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit was - 1765 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit was - 610 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit was - 113 yuan/ton (-16), and adipic acid production profit was - 1372 yuan/ton (-36). Caprolactam operation rate was 90.90% (-0.83), phenol operation rate was 78.00% (-3.00), aniline operation rate was 73.66% (+0.77), and adipic acid operation rate was 64.80% (+0.00) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set a positive tone for the second half of the year, with a clear work stance and a plan to implement an active fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy, continuing to promote policy combinations such as anti - involution and consumption promotion. The Fed maintained interest rates, and Powell's hawkish stance strengthened the US dollar index, pressuring the stock and bond markets. The current market has intensified long - short competition, and the overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited. Investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [1][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The Politburo meeting in July judged the current economic situation more positively than the April meeting. The steady - growth policy system focuses on releasing consumption potential, standardizing market competition, optimizing industrial structure, and preventing systemic risks, and makes systematic arrangements in areas such as fiscal and monetary policies, real estate, and the capital market [1] - **Overseas Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Powell said it was too early to cut rates in September. The current interest rate level is appropriate considering uncertainties in tariffs and inflation [1] - **Stock Index Trends**: In the spot market, A - share indices diverged, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% and the ChiNext Index down 1.62%. Industry sectors showed mixed performance. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, US stock indices also had mixed results, with the Dow down 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.15% [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IH, IF, and IC declined, and the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the Politburo meeting's policy orientation, the market's long - short game is intensifying. The overall adjustment space of stock indices is limited, and investors can choose the right time to layout long positions [3] Macro - economic Charts - Charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends and styles [10][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.02%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.82% [13] - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 40,368 to 138,031, and the open interest increased by 15,183 to 274,703 [15] - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 4.24, a change of - 5.02 [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 10.60, a change of + 0.80 [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward adjustment of freight rates by MSC and OOCL in August has a bearish impact on the market [1]. - The 8 - month contract shows high - level volatility, and the top of the freight rate has emerged. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points, but there is still uncertainty [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [5]. - The 12 - month contract still follows the peak - off - peak pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. If it resumes, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU [8]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 30, 2025, the positions of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures are 79,320.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 76,715.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1532.00, 1386.10, 1514.20, 2139.00, 1468.70, and 1738.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On July 25, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2090.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2067.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3378.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 28, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1284.01 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route in August 2025 is 303,200 TEU, and in September it is 289,800 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA alliance, and there are currently 5 TBNs in August and 3 in September. Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in Week 32 and is expected to add one in Week 34 [3]. - As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical uncertainty, such as the ongoing cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which may affect the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the text. However, the freight rate trends of different contracts are related to market demand and economic conditions. For example, the 12 - month contract is affected by the peak - season demand before Western holidays [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the recent market sentiment has cooled down, and the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is between 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, the main contract of stainless steel has a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton. It is expected to break through the 120 - day moving average resistance level. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is also recommended, along with monitoring the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, and the open interest was 92,635 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 showed a narrow - range oscillation throughout the day, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 117,000 yuan/ton on June 23, and it is estimated that 117,000 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were all raised. The refined nickel futures price has been rising continuously following commodities due to the influence of capital sentiment, but the sentiment has shown signs of cooling this week. The spot trading of refined nickel is acceptable, and the oversupply pattern of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The premium and discount have decreased due to the influence of contract switching but are still at a high level, so the spot price provides support for the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,759 (- 121.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 (3,180) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, range trading is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, and the open interest was 102,650 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated slightly upward, with a doji positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the sharp decline after the rally last Friday night indicated that there was pressure above 13,100 yuan/ton. It is considered that 13,100 yuan/ton is a short - term resistance level. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 12,400 yuan/ton on June 24, and it is estimated that 12,400 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [4]. - In the spot market, the morning quotations of merchants in the Foshan market were raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot trading volume has rebounded, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has also improved. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, and most sellers' quotations were around 905 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 110 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP of the US and Europe in the second quarter was better than expected, and the Fed kept its policy unchanged. The market should focus on domestic important meetings, the progress of "anti - involution", the impact of "reciprocal tariffs", and corresponding commodity sectors. For investment, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [1][2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economy, but policy urgency decreased. In June, exports were strong, while social retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined, and real estate sales were weak. The Politburo meeting proposed more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and local governments will open applications for parenting subsidies in late August [1]. "Anti - Involution" Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized governing low - price and disorderly competition. Policy expectations for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have increased, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' steady - growth work plans are to be introduced, and the petrochemical and chemical industries' old - device assessment is underway [2]. "Reciprocal Tariffs" Impact - After the "Big Beautiful" bill, Trump focused on external pressure to promote tariff negotiations. Tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down commodities affected by external demand. The US Q2 GDP growth was 3%, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The eurozone's Q2 economic growth was better than expected, and the rate - cut expectation declined [3]. Corresponding Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, and the supply of non - ferrous metals remains tight. The energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. Some chemical products' "anti - involution" space is worth attention, and agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. Parenting subsidy applications will be open by August 31. The US and China will extend the suspension of part of reciprocal tariffs. Trump imposed tariffs on multiple countries, and the US economic data and Fed's policy were released [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, recent price fluctuations are due to rising raw material coal prices and changes in supply - demand. The market is expected to remain volatile with a neutral stance on the single - side strategy [1][2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures market is affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, with a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals. There is a risk of chasing high prices, and the recommended strategy is to sell - hedge at high prices and buy put options [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 9500 yuan/ton and closed at 9285 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton (2.20%) from the previous settlement. The closing position of the 2509 main contract was 242,677 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 49,846 lots, a change of - 236 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9900 - 10100 (200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 10100 - 10400 (100) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in multiple regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also rose, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - Affected by the rising price of raw material coal, the cost of silicon coal was strongly supported, driving up the prices of silicon coal in many regions. For example, the price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, it increased by 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12100 - 12700 (- 50) yuan/ton. The supply in the silicone market was contracting, and manufacturers' willingness to maintain prices increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy** - The recent market fluctuations have increased, but the fundamentals have changed little. It is expected that the market will remain volatile. - Single - side: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 51,800 yuan/ton and closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, a change of 8.87% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 164,490 lots (140,638 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,243 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30, a month - on - month change of - 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW, a month - on - month change of 11.55%. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 10.87%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a month - on - month change of 0.90% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.05) yuan/piece [4]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W [5]. - According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials this week was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 44,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 44,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [6]. - From the perspective of supply and demand, the total polysilicon output in July is expected to be close to 110,000 tons, and there is still a large possibility of growth in August. In July, the start - up of silicon wafer factories was relatively weak. With the rise in silicon wafer prices, some enterprises had preliminary plans to start furnaces, and the implementation needs further observation. The supply - demand fundamentals were weak [6]. - According to the exchange announcement, non - futures company members or customers' single - day opening volume on the polysilicon futures PS2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on the PS2510, PS2511, PS2512, and PS2601 contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots respectively [6]. - **Strategy** - Currently, the polysilicon futures market is mainly affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, and there is a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals in the short term. The industry's acquisition and merger plan is still being promoted, and there is no clear conclusion yet. The futures are easily affected by news. From a valuation perspective, a price of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton already gives the industry good profits, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. The market fluctuations are large, and the futures position is large. After the exchange's position limit, the change in position can also easily cause market fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to risk management. - Single - side: Sell - hedge at high prices; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: Buy put options [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the chlor - alkali industry is limited due to insufficient fundamental drivers [1]. - For PVC, the short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and it may shift to fundamental logic later. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high upstream production and new production expectations in July - August, leading to large supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the cost side lacks support. There is pressure to compress chlor - alkali profits [4]. - For caustic soda, the macro - atmosphere related to the renovation of old facilities has weakened, and the market is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is large, the demand has both rigid support and off - season weakness, and the inventory pressure is increasing [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5159 yuan/ton (- 33), the East China basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+ 53), and the South China basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+ 13) [2]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5040 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5040 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 540 yuan/ton (+ 5), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is 58 yuan/ton (- 4), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 134 yuan/ton (+ 181), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 506 yuan/ton (+ 89), and the PVC export profit is - 11.3 US dollars/ton (+ 5.8) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 35.7 tons (- 1.0), the social PVC inventory is 42.7 tons (+ 1.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.21% (+ 1.69%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 66.95% (- 1.36%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.81% (+ 0.84%) [2]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 79.5 tons (+ 9.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2613 yuan/ton (- 29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 29) [2]. - **Spot Price**: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 830 yuan/ton (+ 0), and 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1330 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 739.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 737.53 yuan/ton (+ 50.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1819.75 yuan/ton (+ 135.41) [3]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.84 tons (+ 2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.31 tons (- 0.09), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.00% (+ 1.40%) [3]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate is 85.45% (+ 1.84%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+ 0.42%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. As the atmosphere weakens and approaches the delivery month of 09, it may shift to fundamental logic. The fundamentals have not improved, with large supply - side pressure, weak demand, and lack of cost support. There is pressure to compress chlor - alkali profits [4]. Caustic Soda - The macro - atmosphere related to the renovation of old facilities has weakened, and the market is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is large, the demand has both rigid support and off - season weakness, and the inventory pressure is increasing [4]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Inter - period**: Do reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [5]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Inter - period**: Do reverse arbitrage for SH2509 - SH2601 [6].

化工日报 | 2025-07-31 天然橡胶社会库存环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14945元/吨，较前一日变动-65元/吨。NR主力合约12575元/吨，较前一日变动-95 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨， 较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1795美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1725美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年6月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量46.34万吨，环比增加 2.21%，同比增加33.95%，2025年1-6月累计进口数量312.57万吨，累计同比增加26.47%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年上半年，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为138.6万吨，同比降2%。其中， 标胶合计出口80.4万吨，同比降12 ...