1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market trading has become lighter, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises is relatively weak due to the approaching National Day holiday, the lead ore supply remains relatively tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 113 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,065 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 76,219 lots, an increase of 26,944 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 48,797 lots, a decrease of 11,865 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,110 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,845 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price [2] Inventory - On September 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 29, the LME lead inventory was 218,825 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market, with the buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment is weak, with all treasury bond futures closing lower. The bond market is volatile between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Catalogues I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a 0.10% increase and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.94, down 0.25 or 0.25%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1237, down 0.017 or 0.24%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, up 0.03 or 1.74%. DR007 is 1.59, up 0.03 or 2.04%. R007 is 1.51, down 0.05 or 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, down 0.01 or 0.43%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a - 0.43% change [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [15][16][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [33][27]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [31][35][36]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [48][42][51]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [60][65][62]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][72][73]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate is volatile, and the price of treasury bond futures is also volatile. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

油脂日报 | 2025-09-30 节前避险情绪浓郁，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9234.00元/吨，环比变化-2元，幅度-0.02%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8150.00元 /吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约10093.00元/吨，环比变化-69.00元，幅度-0.68%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9190.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差P01+-44.00，环比变化+2.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8340.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.48%，现货基差Y01+190.00，环比变 化-28.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10310.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元，幅度-0.67%，现货基差OI01+217.00， 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部发布的出口检验周报显示，截至2025年9月25日当周，美国对中国（大陆地区）装 运0吨大豆。前一周美国对中国大陆装运0吨大豆。当周美国对华大豆出口检验量占到该周出口检验总量的0.00%， 上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [4] Core View of the Report - Near the holiday, the polyester industry chain is oscillating. The cost - end oil price has rebounded, and geopolitical factors need to be continuously monitored. The supply - demand situation of PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken, and the support at the bottom has weakened. The near - end fundamentals of TA have improved, but there is still a large inventory accumulation pressure in December. The demand for polyester has improved marginally, but the high - level increase in polyester load is limited. The short - term supply - demand situation of PF is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee of PR is expected to oscillate in a range [1][2][4] Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Relevant charts include TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Relevant charts cover PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant charts involve toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Relevant charts show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant charts present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Relevant charts cover the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the operating rates of textile, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] Detailed PF Data - Relevant charts include the load of polyester staple fiber, inventory days, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the spread between raw and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [73][74][84] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Relevant charts involve the load of polyester bottle chips, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [94][96][103]

据农业农村部监测，9月29日"农产品批发价格200指数"为118.80，比昨天下降0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为119.69，比昨天下降0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.32元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；牛肉65.94 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；羊肉61.68元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；鸡蛋8.45元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%；白条鸡17.24 元/公斤，比昨天下降2.5%。 市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-09-30 供应压力持续释放，猪价偏弱运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12295元/吨，较前交易日变动-280.00元/吨，幅度-2.23%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+255，较前交易日变动+170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH11+475，较前交易日变动+280；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.84元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH11-455，较前交易日变动 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward; glass and soda ash markets are weak and oscillating due to cautious downstream procurement; the dual - silicon market is weak due to unmet peak - season demand [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass - Yesterday, the glass futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is generally stable, consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream inventory replenishment, inventory has decreased but overall change is limited, and fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and peak - season demand [1] Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens. The futures premium suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new - capacity投产 progress and inventory changes [1] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the coking coal futures tumbled, and the silicomanganese futures followed suit. The main contract closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous day.节前 market transactions were sluggish. This week, production continued to decline, hot - metal production increased slightly, downstream demand remained resilient, and alloy - enterprise inventory increased significantly. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to oscillate and follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and cost - support changes [3] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. This week, production and operating rates rebounded slightly, demand increased slightly with hot - metal production, factory inventory decreased month - on - month, and inventory was at a medium level compared to the same period. Currently, there are few supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes figures such as Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price trends, futures contract closing - price trends, basis trends, cost and profit trends of various products, and spot price trends of raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the end of maintenance, pay attention to the short - spread of PL01 - 02 when it rises; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Upstream plant restart expectations and insufficient downstream demand have led to the recent weak operation of propylene spot and low - level fluctuations in the futures market. On the supply side, the restart and capacity increase of Shandong Zhenhua and Qingdao Jinneng's PDH plants, along with the release of new capacity from Yulong, have increased the supply pressure in the short term. On the demand side, the pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream factories is weakening, and they are still restricted by cost pressures, mainly making low - price and just - in - time purchases. In terms of cost, the plan of OPEC+ to increase oil production in November has put pressure on international oil prices, and the relatively strong price of propane overseas has limited the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report shows data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [1][6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, and propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][25][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents data on the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45][53][56][58][60] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [2][3] 2. Core Views - The soybean market is currently stable with the futures and spot prices showing minor fluctuations. The domestic soybean supply is ample, which has put downward pressure on prices. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low, resulting in average market trading volume [1] - The peanut market is also experiencing a period of price volatility. Some production areas are affected by bad weather, leading to a limited supply. As the two major festivals approach, food companies have mostly completed their stockpiling, and some large oil mills have stopped production, resulting in a decline in demand [2] 3. Summary by Market Soybean Market - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean 2511 contract was 3938.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 282, down 3 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] - **Market Situation**: Domestic soybeans are gradually coming onto the market, with a loose supply in the Northeast production area. Prices are under pressure, farmers are reluctant to sell, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low [1] Peanut Market - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7822.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8450.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous day. The spot basis was PK11 + 478.00, down 24.00 or 4.78% from the previous day. The national average price of peanut kernels decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin [2] - **Market Situation**: Some production areas in Henan are affected by rainy weather, resulting in a low supply. The supply in Hebei, Liaoning, and Jilin is gradually increasing. As the two festivals approach, food companies' procurement enthusiasm has declined, and some large oil mills have stopped production [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has been set, which is from October 20th to 23rd, and it will review the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". Market expectations continue to improve, and the impact of macro - policies is gradually shifting from "removal" on the supply - side to "stability", with the incremental demand on the demand - side being the focus for the future [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments. Based on the project capital ratio of 20% and the new policy - based financial instrument ratio of 50%, it can drive investment projects worth 5 trillion yuan. Attention should be paid to the stabilization and recovery of the economic cycle in the fourth quarter. There are differences between internal and external expectations, with external negative impacts on global total demand rising and internal positive impacts on the economy rising [4]. Summary by Related Content Event Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided on September 29th that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 29th that the scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [2]. Policy Background and Impact - The new policy - based financial instruments were first proposed at the Political Bureau meeting on April 25th, 2025, aiming to solve the problem of insufficient project capital and supporting funds, with the direction of "supporting scientific and technological innovation, expanding consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, etc." [4].