Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Near the holiday, EG fluctuates. The spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous trading day, and the basis is 67 yuan/ton. The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton. The inventory data from different sources shows different trends. The overall supply and demand logic is that the domestic EG load is running at a high level, there are still many overseas supply losses, and there will be more arrivals during the National Day holiday. The demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The near - term EG balance sheet has little contradiction, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but there is great pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract is 4224 yuan/ton (+ 11 yuan/ton, + 0.26% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton, - 0.12% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) is 67 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data in the provided content, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [17] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, and the production and sales of filaments have improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand recovery [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China is 40.9 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it is 40.0 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight accumulation. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With low valuation, there may be room for the price to rise if relevant policies are introduced [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure and weak short - term trading. The market is influenced by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The main contract 2511 opened at 8850 yuan/ton and closed at 8610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 390 yuan/ton (-4.33%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract was 206,977 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,202 lots, an increase of 69 lots from the previous day [2]. - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 (-50) yuan/ton [2]. - On the consumption side, the price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Last week, some domestic monomer enterprises slightly increased their DMC quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and this week the price remained stable, supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, and long positions can be considered for dry - season contracts at low prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,950 yuan/ton and closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous trading day. The open interest was 93,768 lots (101,486 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 158,112 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased by 10.78% to 22.60, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.80% to 16.23GW. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,100.00 tons, a 0.30% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor price changes in some products [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment has cooled. Polysilicon faces high inventory pressure, and the production reduction in October may be less than expected. Downstream silicon wafer price increases also face resistance [5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The mainstream price of LPG remains stable. Before the holiday, the demand is mainly for essential needs. Sellers focus on inventory reduction, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic supply also maintains an overall abundant state. The increase in the demand of the combustion terminal is lower than expected, and the growth of deep - processing is limited by profit factors. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG is relatively loose, and there is strong resistance in the market. After continuous corrections, it is expected that the short - term downward space of the futures market is limited, but it lacks the impetus to strengthen [1] Market Analysis - On September 29, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,600 yuan; Northeast market: 4,020 - 4,280 yuan; North China market: 4,400 - 4,650 yuan; East China market: 4,210 - 4,630 yuan; Yangtze River region market: 4,590 - 4,830 yuan; Northwest market: 4,400 - 4,500 yuan; South China market: 4,548 - 4,750 yuan [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 582 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,657 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,555 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 588 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 575 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,602 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Figures - Figures include the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River region; the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River region, and Northwest; the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract; the near - month spread of PG futures; and the trading volume and open interest of PG futures' main contract and total [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for L and PP, the unilateral strategy is neutral [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PE**: The cost - side support weakens due to falling oil prices. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices are restarting. Although the downstream demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE. After the festivals, social inventory may accumulate [2]. - **PP**: The cost support is weak. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited. The weak demand restricts the upward space of PP, and the low profit also limits its downward space [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7181 yuan/ton (+22), and that of the PP main contract is 6903 yuan/ton (+10). The LL North China spot price is 7120 yuan/ton (-20), and the LL East China spot price is 7140 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is -61 yuan/ton (-32), the LL East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (-22), and the PP East China basis is -153 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (+1.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), the PP oil - based production profit is -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), the PP import profit is -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), and the PP export profit is 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 32.9% (+6.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.4% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.9% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost - side support weakens as OPEC+ increases oil production in November, driving the oil price down. The supply is increasing as more maintenance devices restart. The demand has a slight improvement before the double - festivals, but the follow - up is insufficient, and the demand is still weak, which restricts the upward space of PE [2]. - **PP**: The cost support is weak due to the falling international oil price. The supply is expected to increase as the number of maintenance devices decreases. The demand is marginally improving but still recovering slowly, and the demand support is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: L and PP are neutral [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-30 增产预期不断增强，郑棉延续下跌趋势 白糖观点 策略 中性偏空。新棉增产预期持续压制盘面，叠加金九旺季不旺，需求面支撑不足，棉价仍有继续走弱的风险，至于 下方空间还有多大，关注后期收购价走势。 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 风险 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13350元/吨，较前一日变动-55元/吨，幅度-0.41%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14942元/吨，较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF01+1592，较前一日变动+2；3128B棉全国均价14953元/吨， 较前一日变动-48元/吨，现货基差CF01+1603，较前一日变动-35。 市场分析 近期市场资讯，据海关统计数据，2025年8月我国棉纱进口量为13.20万吨，同比增加2.65万吨，增幅为25.12%；环 比增加2.5万吨，增幅为23.36%。2025年1-8月我国棉纱进口量为90.89万吨，同比减少9.99万吨，减幅为9.90%。8 月我国棉纱进口单价为2.19美元/公斤，同比下跌7.20%，环比上涨2.34%。1-8月我国棉纱进口单价为2.34美元/公斤， 同比下跌5.91%。 昨日郑棉 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan fell below the previous lows, the trading volume improved, but the sustainability was weak. Before the National Day, the purchasing sentiment was difficult to maintain at a high level, showing regional differentiation. The overall order intake of upstream manufacturers was okay, and the subsequent prices are expected to be mainly stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in the Northeast. In the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. In September, the export window period is still ongoing, and the export of urea is accelerating. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On September 29, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,664 yuan/ton (-5); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0); the small - particle price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was - 64 yuan/ton (-5); the basis in Henan was - 54 yuan/ton (+5); the basis in Jiangsu was - 64 yuan/ton (-15) [1] Urea Production - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%). The urea production is running at a high level, and in the medium - and long - term, the supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose [1][2] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of September 29, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (0.08%) [1] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. September is still the export window period, and the export of urea is ongoing with an accelerating rhythm, and the port inventory is being depleted. In August, 800,000 tons were exported, and the export volume in September is still expected. As of September 29, 2025, the export profit was 1,070 yuan/ton (-88) [1][2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (-3.36%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+3.80%); the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53). The industrial demand for compound fertilizers has low enthusiasm for purchasing and only purchases at low prices, while melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900), and the inventory of port samples was 496,300 tons (-19,700). The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent rapid decline in the Dubai crude oil monthly spread structure indicates a reversal in the market situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. With weaker Chinese buying interest, increased Middle East exports, and more arbitrage cargoes flowing from the West to the East, the tight supply - demand pattern has been corrected. As time passes, the long - position holders have fewer favorable factors. The rapid increase in floating storage recently shows that supply surplus is gradually materializing. Although the dual - market of sensitive oil and compliant oil due to sanctions offsets part of the supply surplus, if China reduces compliant oil purchases and India and Turkey continue to absorb sanctioned oil despite political pressure, future oil prices will face downward pressure [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The SC crude oil main contract closed down 2.87%, at 480 yuan per barrel [1] - On September 28 local time, the UN Secretary - General's spokesperson's office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions passed by the UN Security Council have come back into force since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27. The resolutions include Nos. 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929. The sanctions committee list of Resolution 1737 covers 43 individuals and 78 entities related to Iran's nuclear program, military industry, and finance [1] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production by at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the organization to regain market share. Since April, OPEC+ has changed its production - cut strategy and has cumulatively increased the quota by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global oil demand. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting on October 5 with eight member countries to decide on the production arrangement for November [1] - An Iraqi oil ministry official said that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase crude oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days. Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [1] - The WTO reported that the EU has appealed against the panel report on the dispute over Indonesia's biodiesel import tariffs [1] Investment Logic - The rapid decline in the Dubai crude oil monthly spread structure shows a change in the Middle East - Asia - Pacific market. Weaker Chinese demand, more Middle East exports, and increased supply from the West lead to a supply - demand correction. The increasing floating storage implies supply surplus, and future oil prices may face downward pressure under certain conditions [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term. Maintain the idea of short - selling at high prices [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-30 节前备货基本结束，现货价格持稳运行 市场分析 2025-09-29，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73100元/吨，收于73920元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.93%。当日成 交量为465591手，持仓量为251749手，前一交易日持仓量248640手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为690元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单41119手，较上个交易日变化790手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72800-74300元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价70700-71900元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨。6%锂精矿价格835美元/吨，较前一日变化5美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料厂国庆备货已基本结束，市场成交明显转淡。供应方面，以锂辉石为原料生产的碳酸锂占比已超过 60%，成为市场供给的重要支撑；锂云母原料所产碳酸锂占比则下降至15%。整体来看，9月市场呈现供需同步增 长、但需求增速更快的态势，当月呈现持续去库状态。 天齐锂业三万吨电池级氢氧化锂项目正式竣工投产。天齐锂业三万吨电池级氢氧化锂项目位于张家港市江苏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory destocking rate slows down due to high domestic plant operation and reduced pre - holiday downstream procurement. Although downstream pure benzene开工率 has rebounded from the bottom, the long - term procurement sustainability of some products is questionable. - Styrene port inventory accumulates again because of the decline in PS and EPS开工率 and continued decline in提货. The styrene开工率 remains low in the short term, and the factory inventory decreases. Overseas, the price difference between European and American EB and China is weak, and the spot import window is closed, but the paper - cargo import window is close to opening, limiting the upside space of EB. [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - Figures show pure benzene's basis, spot - M2 paper - cargo spread, and inter - period spread, as well as EB's basis and inter - period spread. [7][11][14] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures display the processing fees of naphtha, the spreads between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, and various domestic - foreign spreads and import profits of pure benzene and styrene. [17][20][29] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures present the inventory in East China ports and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene, as well as the commercial inventory and factory inventory of styrene. [36][38][41] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Figures show the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS. [48][53][54] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Figures illustrate the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products of pure benzene. [58][61][71] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies. - Basis and Inter - Period: No strategy. - Cross - Variety: Short the spread of EB2512 - BZ2503 on rallies. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].