1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in Indonesia this year and the decision to maintain the current B40 plan are negative factors for palm oil demand, causing the market to trade under pressure and fluctuate [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or -0.34% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.00 yuan or +0.18% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,949.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.00 yuan or -0.75% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or -0.34%, with a spot basis of P05 + -18.00, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y05 + 400.00, a decrease of 14.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or -0.20%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 801.00, an increase of 48.00 yuan [1] Market News - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel blending ratio [2] - Indonesia will increase the export tax (levy) on crude palm oil (CPO) from 10% to 12.5% starting March 1st, and the export tax on refined products will also be increased by 2.5 percentage points [2] - The CNF quotation of international palm oil has risen this week, increasing the import cost of palm oil in China. On January 13, 2026, the CNF quotations for February and March shipments of 24 - degree palm oil were 1,063 US dollars/ton and 1,086 US dollars/ton, up 15 - 28 US dollars/ton from the same period last week [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board expects palm oil production in 2026 to be between 19.5 million and 19.8 million tons, compared to 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the palm oil inventory in 2026 is expected to be 2 million tons, compared to 3.05 million tons in 2025 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to potential changes in Indonesian nickel ore policies [3]. - The stainless - steel market has a situation where cost support and weak demand are in a game. The stainless - steel main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term, and focus should be on the price trend of nickel iron, spot trading volume, and macro - sentiment changes [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,330 yuan/ton and closed at 140,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,070,694 (-206,996) lots, and the open interest was 109,975 (-9,510) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, wide - range fluctuation, and a slight decline at the end", with sharp intraday fluctuations. The V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index and the correction of the US stock market suppressed the prices of LME nickel and Shanghai nickel [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has a strong price - holding atmosphere. In the Philippines, mine tender prices have continuously risen. A domestic southern factory recently purchased 1.3% grade nickel ore at a CIF price of 42 US dollars. The new round of 1.3% nickel ore tender of the main mine Benguet was concluded at an FOB price of 38 US dollars, showing a significant increase. In Indonesia, the market trading was dull, and the market is waiting for the official announcement of the HPM benchmark price on the 15th. It is expected that the benchmark price in the second half of the month will increase by about 3 - 4 US dollars compared with the first half [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 150,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 40,272 (836) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,658 (510) tons [2]. Strategy - The overall strategy for nickel is to mainly conduct range operations. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 14, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,850 yuan/ton and closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 214,016 (-42,112) lots, and the open interest was 134,879 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of "opening low, rising high, and narrow - range strong fluctuation", supported by the rising price of nickel iron at the cost end and the firm spot price. It was more resistant to decline than Shanghai nickel and finally closed slightly higher, continuing the range - bound pattern [3]. - **Spot**: After the recent increase in spot prices, the upward momentum of the futures market is insufficient, market caution has increased, and trading has remained light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,800 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 40 to 240 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 982.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,500 - 14,100 yuan/ton in the short term [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. The price is clearly supported by the rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices under the situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost and production cut expectations [3] - The decline rate of polysilicon is gradually slowing down. In the short term, the cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy may boost demand, but it may overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear out. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and short on rallies in the medium and long term [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,635 yuan/ton and closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day's settlement, a 0.34% change. The position of the main contract 2605 was 235,089 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 13, 2026 was 11,128 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 8 was 552,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week [1] Consumption - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand, and strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, with short - term consumption having an upward space [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak. Currently, the supply is still slightly in excess, the inventory is still at a high level, the market trading is light, and the fundamentals remain weak [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined. It opened at 49,960 yuan/ton and closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, a - 1.46% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 48,439 lots (48,844 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 20,942 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4] - SMM statistics showed that polysilicon manufacturers' inventories increased, and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, a - 1.30% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW, a 13.11% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly output was 23,800 tons, a - 0.80% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer output was 10.52GW, a 3.34% change from the previous period [4] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.40 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.72 - 0.72 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.75 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak shock - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a current focus. China aims to boost consumption and promote reasonable price recovery through monetary policies. The future price recovery path depends on supply - side policies. Geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela may impact the global competition for minerals and energy resources. Only economic recession and interest - rate hike expectations can cool down the inflation sentiment [2]. - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. China's exports and new orders are positive in December, and the trade surplus is large. The country's foreign trade growth rate is expected to remain resilient. The US economy shows mixed signals with manufacturing index decline and inflation changes. Japan may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold an early election [3]. - In the commodity market, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are potential opportunities for low - valued commodities to rise in price. Pay attention to the sentiment risks in the new energy sector, the Iran situation, "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and weather and disease factors in the agricultural product sector [4]. - The strategy is to buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Central economic work conferences in China emphasize boosting consumption and price recovery. The People's Bank of China will use various monetary policy tools. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela are rising, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2]. Trade Situation - China's exports and imports in December exceed expectations, mainly due to the global AI investment boom and manufacturing recovery. Exports to emerging markets are strong, and trade with the US shows a mixed picture. The domestic demand recovery foundation is not solid. The trade surplus in December is 1141.4 billion US dollars, and the annual surplus exceeds 1 trillion. The US manufacturing index declines, and inflation shows different trends [3]. Commodity Market - Focus on non - ferrous metals (especially aluminum and nickel) and precious metals. There are sentiment risks in the new energy sector. The US has actions related to Venezuelan oil, and there are tensions between the US and Iran. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of some products. In the agricultural product sector, focus on weather and disease. On January 14, some commodity futures and spot silver have significant price increases [4]. Strategy - Suggest to buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. Important News - The overall market shows a volatile trend with high trading volume. China's trade data in December is positive. The US core CPI growth is lower than expected. Trump has actions related to the Fed and Iran, which impact the oil market. Japan may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold an early election. Some commodity futures and spot silver have significant price changes [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance for the asphalt industry. It recommends going long on the BU main contract on dips, and taking long positions on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium in the crude oil market is strengthening, providing solid support to the cost side of asphalt. Although the rigid demand for asphalt is weak, supply is also restricted, leading to tight local asphalt spot circulation. The BU futures price has shifted to a sideways trend after pricing in the expected tightening of Venezuelan oil supply. With the escalation of the situation in South America and rising benchmark oil prices due to the Iran situation, the cost - side support for asphalt remains [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 14, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 203,327 lots, down 4,581 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 199,146 lots, down 81,301 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,040 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. Spot prices in North China and Shandong have increased, while those in other regions have remained stable [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. Go long on the BU main contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Futures - spot**: No strategy provided [2]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a situation of a weak recovery in mid - stream production and a price increase in the upstream sector. It also details recent policies in the production and service industries and the performance of various industries at different levels of the industrial chain [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry A. Production and Service Industry Policies - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization and other departments issued the "Model - Speed - Intelligence - Mobility Action Plan for the High - Level Autonomous Driving Leading Area in Shanghai". By 2027, high - level autonomous driving applications will achieve large - scale implementation, aiming to form an internationally competitive intelligent connected vehicle industry cluster [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced the continuation of the personal income tax policy to support residents in exchanging housing. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a house within one year can get a tax refund on the personal income tax paid for selling the existing house [1]. B. Industry Chain Performance - **Upstream**: - **Chemical Industry**: The price of polyethylene has rebounded [2]. - **Agriculture**: The price of eggs has significantly rebounded [2]. - **Energy Industry**: International crude oil and natural gas prices have continued to decline [2]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Chemical Industry**: The PX开工率 is at a high level, while the PTA开工率 is at a low level [2]. - **Energy Industry**: The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - **Downstream**: - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have rebounded [3]. - **Service Industry**: The number of domestic flights has increased [3]. C. Key Industry Price Indicators (as of January 14) - **Agriculture**: The spot price of corn is 2254.3 yuan/ton (up 0.25% year - on - year), eggs 7.3 yuan/kg (up 9.45% year - on - year), palm oil 8780.0 yuan/ton (up 2.09% year - on - year), cotton 15973.8 yuan/ton (down 0.13% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork 18.1 yuan/kg (up 0.95% year - on - year) [33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of copper is 104121.7 yuan/ton (up 0.53% year - on - year), zinc 24508.0 yuan/ton (up 0.92% year - on - year), aluminum 24673.3 yuan/ton (up 2.12% year - on - year), nickel 146716.7 yuan/ton (down 1.76% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum 17325.0 yuan/ton (down 0.43% year - on - year) [33]. - **Ferrous Metals**: The spot price of rebar is 3245.0 yuan/ton (up 0.10% year - on - year), iron ore 839.3 yuan/ton (up 0.59% year - on - year), wire rod 3497.5 yuan/ton (down 0.21% year - on - year), and glass 12.9 yuan/square meter (up 0.39% year - on - year) [33]. - **Non - metals**: The spot price of natural rubber is 15866.7 yuan/ton (up 0.11% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index is 765.5 (up 1.04% year - on - year) [33]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.9 dollars/barrel (up 6.65% year - on - year), Brent crude oil 65.5 dollars/barrel (up 7.86% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas 3568.0 yuan/ton (up 10.46% year - on - year), and coal 799.0 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year) [33]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA is 5108.6 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year), polyethylene 6773.3 yuan/ton (up 3.04% year - on - year), urea 1747.5 yuan/ton (up 1.01% year - on - year), and soda ash 1214.3 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [33]. - **Real Estate**: The national cement price index is 134.9 (down 0.51% year - on - year), the building materials composite index is 115.7 (up 0.11% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index is 90.4 (down 0.01% year - on - year) [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term long diesel cracking, medium - term short position allocation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oil prices are still trading around the possibility of Trump's military action against Iran. Since the US won't gain direct benefits from a military strike on Iran and the implementation is difficult, and neighboring countries are preventing such an action. If the situation in Iran remains unchanged, oil prices are expected to cool down soon [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI February crude oil futures rose 1.42% to $62.02 per barrel, Brent March crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $66.52 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures rose 1.80% to 457 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's crude oil production decreased slightly in 2025. The daily output decreased by about 0.7% year - on - year to 9.129 million barrels. In December 2025, the production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 9.304 million barrels per day. The international oil price dropped by more than 18% in 2025 [1] - Iran's oil exports achieved "record growth" in the past 14 months, and external pressures such as tariffs and sanctions have no substantial impact on its oil exports [1] - After the US began seizing ships involved in Venezuelan oil trade, at least 26 ships changed their registration to Russia since early last month. About 13% of nearly 1,500 tankers transporting oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are now registered in Russia [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices fluctuated greatly yesterday. After Trump's statement to wait and see the situation in Iran but not rule out military options, oil prices dropped by more than 3%. Military action against Iran is difficult for the US and may lead to instability in the Middle East [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price drivers are strong. Short - term long diesel cracking, medium - term short position allocation [3] Risk - Downward risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upward risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides an overview of the stock index options market on January 14, 2026, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options [1] Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On January 14, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was 1.3246 million contracts; CSI 300ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.6849 million contracts; CSI 500ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2.5217 million contracts; Shenzhen 100ETF options was 69,900 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2.9982 million contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 86,600 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 250,600 contracts; CSI 1000 options total trading volume was 678,100 contracts [1] - The detailed trading volume data also includes call and put option trading volumes for each type of option [19] 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was reported at 0.62, with a month - on - month change of +0.12; the position PCR was reported at 0.94, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04. Similar data is provided for other types of options, showing different changes in turnover PCR and position PCR [2][33] 3. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was reported at 18.15%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.14%; the VIX of CSI 300ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 20.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.89%. Similar VIX data and their month - on - month changes are provided for other types of options [3][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading may lead to a "factory" - shaped trend in the stock index, with short - term growth slowing down. If the cooling process is not smooth, the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices may face relatively greater pressure [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Policy and Macroeconomic Data - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges adjusted the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% for new margin trading contracts, while existing contracts and their extensions remain unchanged [1] - In November last year, the US PPI and core PPI both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy cost increases were the main driver of the PPI increase [1] - In December last year, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US was 4.35 million, the highest since February 2023. The median home price rose only 0.4% year - on - year to $405,400, the slowest growth in two and a half years [1] Spot Market - A - share indices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31% to close at 4126.09 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.82%. The computer, communication, media, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the banking, real estate, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was close to 4 trillion yuan, a new high [2] - The three major US stock indices closed down across the board, with the Nasdaq falling 1% to 23471.75 points [2] Futures Market - The basis of stock index futures declined. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Policy cooling usually has a certain effect, but considering the long - term slow - bull market, historical experience can only be a limited reference. The stock index may show a "factory" - shaped trend, with short - term growth slowing down. If the cooling process is not smooth, large funds may suppress the market through their positions, and the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices may face relatively greater pressure [3] Chart Summaries Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][9][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 14, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 300 Index, Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, with their respective closing prices, previous - day closing prices, and daily percentage changes [12] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin balance [6][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures, including the current values and changes [14] - Charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratios, and net positions of foreign investors for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][15][17] - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures for different contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) and their changes [36] - Table 4 shows the inter - contract spreads of stock index futures and their changes [39] - Charts show the basis and inter - contract spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [6][37][38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]