1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in methanol port inventory has begun to materialize, and attention should be paid to the duration of winter maintenance of Iranian methanol plants. The MTO is under maintenance, and attention should be paid to the actual resumption time and the possibility of future maintenance. Coal - based methanol maintains high - level operation, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based methanol. The traditional downstream is in the off - season [1][2][3]. - The strategy suggests cautious long - hedging on the long side, and long spreads for MA2605 - MA2609 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, such as the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][20][21]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import spread of methanol in Taicang [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Start - up and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol and the start - up rate of MTO/P are presented, as well as the inventory of inland factories and the start - up rate of Chinese methanol [32][39]. 3.4 Regional Spreads - The report provides data on regional spreads, including the spreads between different regions like Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [36][45][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [49][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The fundamental contradictions in the lead market are relatively limited, and the lead price remains in a volatile pattern. The downstream of the lead industry may see a slight increase in开工 after the New Year's Day, but if orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may reduce production or arrange holidays. The supply of lead ore is relatively tight, and processing fees are still at a low level. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 14, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.81/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton. The lead scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,385 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 48,180 lots, an increase of 14,851 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 70,437 lots, an increase of 35,451 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,330 yuan/ton and 17,485 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,620 yuan/ton, up 1.18% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price increased by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Lead consumption was generally weak, the de - stocking of smelter lead ingot inventories was limited, and the spot market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in light trading [2] Inventory - On January 14, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of January 14, the LME lead inventory was 215,200 tons, a decrease of 3,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Given the current situation, operations can be carried out by buying and selling hedges within the range of 16,980 yuan/ton to 17,800 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Bullish with fluctuations [3] - Inter - period: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when it is low [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The spot market for urea is booming, with factory inventories being depleted. In January, supply increased as some gas - based and technologically - upgraded enterprises resumed production. Demand improved from both agricultural and industrial sectors, including winter and green - turning fertilizer purchases, ongoing light - storage procurement, increased compound fertilizer production, and restarted melamine plants. The international urea market sentiment was boosted by the Indian NFL's import tender. Continued attention should be paid to export trends, national light - storage rhythms, and the persistence of spot purchasing sentiment [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [5][6] 2. Urea Output - Relevant figures are urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss [5][6] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, futures - based production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][6] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - Relevant figures include FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB price of small - particle urea in China, CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and FOB price of small - particle urea in China minus 30, the difference between CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and FOB price of small - particle urea in China, urea export profit, and futures - based export profit [5][6] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [5][6] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [5][6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-15 调控政策加码，碳酸锂价格回落 市场分析 2026-01-14，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于169000元/吨，收于161940元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.53%。当 日成交量为589019手，持仓量为452583手，前一交易日持仓量460281手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-6940 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27158手，较上个交易日变化260手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价158000-168000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3500元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价155000-164000元/吨，较前一交易日变化3500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2200美元/吨，较前一日变化10美元/吨。 继1月13日调整之后，1月14日广期所再次发布公告，碳酸锂期货LC2701合约交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之 三点二、日内平今仓交易手续费标准为成交金额的万分之三点二，交易指令每次最小下单数量中的每次最小开仓 下单数量为5手、每次最小平仓下单数量为1手，非期货公司会员或者客户单日开仓量不得超过400手。交易所近期 多次调整政策，体现了其 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - The high-level fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, starting to suppress consumption. Although it is the off-season for consumption, the current inventory accumulation speed is fast, and it is difficult to transmit prices downward in the short term. However, the macro situation remains the long - term driving force for price increases, while short - term large fluctuations due to capital disturbances need to be watched out for [6] - The procurement price of alumina in the spot market is still slightly declining. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, the supply is in excess, the social inventory is increasing, and there is little support for the absolute price to rise [7][8] Group 3: Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,670 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 24,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,690 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the aluminum spot premium is - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,500 yuan/ton, closed at 24,595 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 25,005 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 777,707 lots, and the open interest was 368,960 lots [2] Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 730,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 133,565 tons, up 32,803 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 492,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 14, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,625 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,575 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 14, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,780 yuan/ton, closed at 2,800 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.28%, with a maximum price of 2,827 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,770 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 691,294 lots, and the open interest was 518,021 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 14, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 64,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is average, with steel prices fluctuating. The glass - soda ash market shows cautious sentiment and is running weakly, while the double - silicon market has futures fluctuating weakly and the spot market mostly in a wait - and - see state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main contract continued its weak operation yesterday, with a decline of 2.06%. On the spot side, manufacturers' quotes stabilized, production and sales were average, and the spot - futures trading was dull [1] - Soda Ash: The main contract mainly fluctuated yesterday, closing slightly down. On the spot side, quotes fluctuated with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made replenishment based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The cold - repair of production lines continues, and there is still an expectation of production suspension before the Spring Festival, so the supply contraction pattern remains unchanged. On the demand side, in the context of the traditional off - season, it is weak, and downstream enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed. The trading volume has declined, but the open interest has increased month - on - month, putting further pressure on the futures price [1] - Soda Ash: The operating rate has increased, and the inventory remains at a high level, with continuous supply pressure. The subsequent release of new production capacity needs attention. The downstream cold - repair expectation is increasing, and enterprises' willingness to make rigid - demand purchases is insufficient. The glass demand is weak, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of soda ash remains relatively loose [1] Strategy - Glass: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuating weakly [2] Double Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the black market returns to fundamentals, the trend of silicon manganese fluctuates weakly. On the spot side, the silicon manganese market is running weakly, with the price of 6517 in the northern market at 5630 - 5750 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Silicon iron futures fluctuated and consolidated. On the spot side, the silicon iron market did not change much, and the market was filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton in cash and tax - included, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large. With the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff disturbance of South African manganese ore may increase the cost of manganese ore in the later stage [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced the production load. However, the slowdown in downstream purchases has led to an increase in factory inventory. Considering the resumption of production of steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected the market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon iron, the actual impact is relatively limited [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Fluctuating [4] - Silicon Iron: Fluctuating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to ease temporarily as PDH device shutdown information continues to be released and there are maintenance plans for some devices. The market is trading on the expectation of tightened supply due to device maintenance, awaiting the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in Q1 [2]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers are entering the market at low prices for essential purchases, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the demand follow - up after the propylene price rises to a high level due to profit compression [2]. - The cost side is supported by the rebound of international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the strong propane prices. With the marginal improvement in supply - demand and sentiment boost, the propylene price continues to be strong. Future focus should be on cost changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [2]. - The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing long hedging. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong, awaiting the fulfillment of marginal device maintenance [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6082 yuan/ton (+68), the East China spot price is 6250 yuan/ton (+200), the North China spot price is 5995 yuan/ton (+25), the East China basis is 168 yuan/ton (+132), and the North China basis is - 154 yuan/ton (-79) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 76% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 229 US dollars/ton (+32), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 65 US dollars/ton (+23), and the import profit is - 538 yuan/ton (-291) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 37% (-1.19%), production profit is - 25 yuan/ton (+15); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 47 yuan/ton (+68); n - butanol operating rate is 83% (+2%), production profit is 521 yuan/ton (+14); octanol operating rate is 89% (+7%), production profit is 712 yuan/ton (-18); acrylic acid operating rate is 87% (+4%), production profit is 38 yuan/ton (-142); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 1190 yuan/ton (-26); phenol - acetone operating rate is 86% (+5%), production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (-140) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 44,690 tons (-3,100) [1].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-15 基本面描述，猪价延波动，蛋价稳偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约12010元/吨，较前交易日变动+215.00元/吨，幅度+1.82%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格12.96元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+950，较前交易日变动-135；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.20元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1190，较前交易日变动-215； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+860，较前交易日变动-215。 据农业农村部监测，1月14日"农产品批发价格200指数"为128.10，比昨天上升0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为130.59，比昨天上升0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.06元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；牛肉65.48 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；羊肉62.77元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.75元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；白条鸡17.78 元/公斤，比昨天上升0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cancellation of the export tax - rebate for PVC from April 1st may lead to a rush of exports, benefiting contracts before April. However, the overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream demand is lackluster, and inventory is high. After April, the export is expected to decline significantly, further loosening the supply - demand relationship [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Affected by low - price warehouse receipts, the spot price is weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory in Shandong continuing to accumulate. The supply side has a high overall operating rate, and the demand side has a general receiving sentiment and low export orders [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4878 yuan/ton (-10); the East China basis is - 238 yuan/ton (-10); the South China basis is - 258 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4640 yuan/ton (-20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4620 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The blue charcoal price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 634 yuan/ton (+80); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 192 yuan/ton (+87); the PVC export profit is - 9.0 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9); the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1); the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.23% (+2.00%); the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.69% (+0.41%); the overall PVC operating rate is 78.85% (+1.51%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2093 yuan/ton (-38); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 7 yuan/ton (+32) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 672 yuan/ton (-2); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1075 yuan/ton (-6); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 587.8 yuan/ton (+33.8); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 279.20 yuan/ton (-36.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 503.49 yuan/ton (-81.01) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 49.51 tons (+0.94); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.08 tons (+0.06); the operating rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%); the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%); the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The cancellation of the export tax - rebate from April 1st may lead to a rush of exports, benefiting contracts before April. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream operating rates are mixed with a downward trend, and inventory is high. The cost - side profit has some repair but is still low year - on - year, and the hedging pressure on the futures market is high [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline, affected by low - price warehouse receipts. The supply - demand is weak, with inventory in Shandong accumulating. The supply side has a high operating rate, and the demand side has a general receiving sentiment and low export orders [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side Strategy**: Oscillation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Strategy**: Go long on the V03 contract and short on the V05 contract when the spread is low [4]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Inter - delivery Strategy**: Go short on the SH03 contract and long on the SH05 contract when the spread is high [5]. - **Inter - commodity Strategy**: None [5].

航运日报 | 2026-01-15 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹WEEK4价格1695/2730,WEEK5价格1510/2420；HPL 1月下半月船期报 价1585/2535，2月上半月船期报价1585/2535. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 1月下半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 1月下半月船期报价1680/2635,2月上半月船期 报价1680/2635；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1733/3036. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月下半月船期报价1859/3293，2月份船期价格1859/3293；EMC1月下半月船 期报价3030-3130美元/FEU；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价2633-2730美元/FEU。 地缘端：美国特使威特科夫表示，我们正式宣布启动特朗普关于结束加沙冲突"二十点计划"的第二阶段。第二阶 段将在加沙建立一个过渡性的巴勒斯坦技术官僚政府，并开启加沙地带的全面去军事化与重建工作。美国期望哈 马斯完全履行其义务。美国期望哈马斯立即归还最后一名遇难人质，否则将面临严重后果。 静态供给：交付现 ...