1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of warehouse receipts is significant, and there is some speculation in the near - month contracts. After the futures market has been at a premium to the spot market for a certain period, the willingness to register warehouse receipts may increase. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see for near - month contracts and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - sided trading, and choose to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 66,140 yuan/ton and closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 764,028 lots, and the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from the previous day. The total open interest of all contracts was 622,936 lots, a decrease of 12,117 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 303,785 lots from the previous day to 926,362 lots, with an overall speculation degree of 1.49. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 11,203 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,800 - 66,000 yuan/ton, a 250 - yuan increase from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 63,800 yuan/ton, also a 250 - yuan increase. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of current market prices due to factors such as long - term contract coverage and high customer - supplied ratios, and procurement demand remains weak. Although upstream lithium salt enterprises have made tentative price adjustments, transactions are mainly concentrated among traders [1]. Strategy - Wait and see for near - month contracts in the short term and look for opportunities to sell and hedge at high prices for far - month contracts [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of container shipping index futures for European routes fluctuates. The recommended strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7]. - The August contract price of container shipping is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The December contract follows the pattern of peak and off - seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's price for WEEK31 from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1855/3110, while HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are 2035/3335 and 2235/3535 respectively [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels launched a military operation with three drones against two locations in Israel on the 15th, and they will continue military actions until Israel stops the aggression against Gaza and lifts the blockade [2]. - Shipping capacity: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of July is 303,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. Maersk will add two extra - sailing vessels in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [2]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - August contract: The freight rate is in a high - level oscillation, with a game around delivery. The CMA still has an expectation to support prices in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points. Historically, the freight rate from Shanghai to European base ports generally peaks around WEEK34 [3]. - October contract: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - December contract: The peak - off - season pattern still exists, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: As of July 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index futures for European routes is 85,457 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 159,135 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1516.40, EC2604 at 1319.00, etc. [5]. - Spot prices: On July 11, the SCFI for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, for the Shanghai - US West route was 2194.00 US dollars/FEU, and for the Shanghai - US East route was 4172.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2421.94 points, and for the Shanghai - US West route was 1266.59 points [6]. 3.4 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 3.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The main contract fluctuates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [7].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No recommendation for inter - period; For inter - variety, short the coal - based production profit at high prices [3] Core View - In mid - and early July, the second batch of urea export quotas was gradually confirmed to be less than the first batch. Currently, the export quotas have not started to circulate. It is the peak agricultural demand season, with scattered agricultural demand. The compound fertilizer industry's demand for urea is increasing, while industrial demand is weak. Urea production remains high, port inventory is rising, and upstream factory inventory is falling [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][14] 2. Urea Output - The report shows the urea weekly output and urea device maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes information on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [15][16][25] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and the differences between them, as well as urea export profit and disk export profit are provided, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][28][37] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report presents the compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [43][38] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream factory raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume is shown, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [41][44][47] Market Analysis Price and Basis - On July 15, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,731 yuan/ton (- 33). Henan small - particle ex - factory price was 1,830 yuan/ton (0), Shandong small - particle price was 1,810 yuan/ton (- 10), and Jiangsu small - particle price was 1,820 yuan/ton (- 20). Small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). Shandong basis was 79 yuan/ton (+ 23), Henan basis was 99 yuan/ton (+ 23), and Jiangsu basis was 89 yuan/ton (+ 13). Urea production profit was 280 yuan/ton (- 10), and export profit was 899 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] Supply Side - As of July 15, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (- 5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+ 4.80) [1] Demand Side - As of July 15, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 29.83% (+ 0.58%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.56% (- 0.43%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 5.94 days (+ 0.58) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. Core Views - The steel market is in high - level shock due to the cooling of policy expectations. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved [1]. - The iron ore market shows resilient demand and is in shock operation. In the long - term, it presents a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in range - bound shock. Coke price increase has been implemented, and the profit of coking plants has improved [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state due to the increasing daily consumption in summer. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures closed down yesterday. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures corrected to varying degrees. Spot trading was weak overall, but the willingness to hold prices was strong, and the basis widened. The spot trading volume was 8630 tons [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The GDP in the first half of the year was well - completed. The expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Urban Work Conference were lower than expected, and the real estate data was still under pressure. The crude steel production from January to June decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production reduction target is expected to be achieved, improving the supply - demand relationship. The steel demand has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [2] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The trading sentiment was average, and steel mills mainly replenished stocks on demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.015 million tons, a 6.28% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.631 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply and demand and logic: The molten iron production decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level in the same period. The consumption of iron ore showed good resilience. Affected by macro - sentiment, the iron ore price rebounded in the short - term. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Shock [4] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The double - coking futures market continued the pattern of mixed gains and losses yesterday, showing a range - bound operation. The port inventory of imported coal was decreasing, and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. After the Nadam Fair, the coal supply at ports is expected to gradually recover. Mainstream steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increase, improving the coking profit [5]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coke, due to the rising raw material prices, the production cost of coking plants increased, and the supply decreased. On the demand side, driven by the premium of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased, and the demand from steel mills was better than expected during the off - season. For coking coal, the supply is gradually recovering but at a limited speed. After the port opens, the supply is expected to further increase. The demand side is active, and downstream enterprises have a good enthusiasm for replenishing stocks [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Shock [6] - Coke: Shock [6] - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, as the temperature rises, the power load increases, and the pit - mouth coal price rises steadily. Some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the willingness to raise prices increased, with some coal types rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage of coal, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and the market coal price rose steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption increases, and the downstream demand strengthens. The coal price is still in a short - term shock - strengthening state. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to the consumption and stock - replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategy Not provided in the content.

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-16 绝对价格：中性 目前国内矿端供应仍然相对偏紧，不过旺季需求的体现暂时并不十分明显，同时有色板块整体相对偏弱也拖累铅 价走势，因此当下操作上暂时以高抛低吸或观望为主。 期权策略：暂缓 风险 市场成交情况无明显变化 铅价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-07-15，LME铅现货升水为-32.78美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16850 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-30.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16900元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-25元/吨至16900元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10275元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10175元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10575元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-15，沪铅主力合约开于17060元/吨，收于16930元/吨，较前一交易日变 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish - Alumina: Cautiously bearish - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is evident, with downstream operating rates declining and processing fees facing losses. Although social inventory is starting to accumulate, the absolute inventory level is still at a record low. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth. Alumina supply is in a slight surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating, and long - term surplus expectations remain unchanged. Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [4][6][7] Summary by Relevant Content Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: On July 15, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,510 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,370 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was - 90 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,390 yuan/ton, closed at 20,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 0.02%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 103,595 lots, a decrease of 105,046 lots, and the open interest was 205,194 lots, a decrease of 17,295 lots [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 501,000 tons. As of July 15, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 416,975 tons, an increase of 11,425 tons from the previous trading day [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On July 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,150 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 366 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,138 yuan/ton, closed at 3,165 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.22%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 383,948 lots, an increase of 33,702 lots, and the open interest was 232,632 lots, a decrease of 9,483 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On July 15, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 910 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 31,400 tons, a weekly increase of 2,500 tons; the in - factory inventory was 70,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,900 tons; the total inventory was 102,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 5,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, with downstream operating rates and production of aluminum rods and aluminum strips and foils declining. Social inventory is accumulating, but the absolute value is at a record low. Macro - conditions are temporarily favorable. Aluminum smelting profits have expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the consumption off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation may provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption shows stable growth [4] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, 3,000 tons of alumina were sold to a south - west electrolytic aluminum plant at an ex - factory price of 3,270 yuan/ton. Supply is slightly in surplus, and total inventory accumulation is accelerating, mainly in the raw material reserves of electrolytic aluminum plants. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [5][6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season, and the futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 465 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [7] Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [8] - **Arbitrage**: Long the SHFE aluminum calendar spread, and long AD11 while shorting AL11 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere for PVC has faded, with the futures market undergoing a corrective adjustment. The supply side has increasing pressure due to new capacity coming online, while the demand side is weak both domestically and externally, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation and expected inventory accumulation. For烧碱, although the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has rebounded, the supply pressure remains high, and the demand side lacks obvious positive drivers, with limited room for continuous rebound [3]. Summary by Directory PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,975 yuan/ton (- 35), the East China basis was - 115 yuan/ton (+ 35), and the South China basis was - 85 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,890 yuan/ton (- 20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,825 yuan/ton (- 25), the calcium carbide profit was 107 yuan/ton (- 25), the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 445 yuan/ton (+ 107), the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was - 621 yuan/ton (+ 74), and the PVC export profit was - 12.3 US dollars/ton (+ 2.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), the social PVC inventory was 39.3 tons (+ 2.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 76.93% (- 3.80%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 70.23% (+ 4.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.07% (- 1.43%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.0 tons (+ 3.2) [1]. Market Analysis - The macro - atmosphere has subsided, and PVC futures are in a corrective adjustment, with the market trading mainly based on fundamentals. The supply side has increasing pressure as some devices restart, the maintenance intensity weakens, and new capacity is expected to be put into production. The demand side is in the off - season domestically, with low downstream operation rates, and the export signing volume has weakened. If the Indian anti - dumping policy is implemented, it may drag down PVC exports. As a result, PVC social inventory continues to accumulate [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to cautiously short - hedge PVC. Given the weak supply - demand fundamentals, expected inventory accumulation, and room for further compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, the price is expected to face downward pressure after the macro - sentiment fades [4]. Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,512 yuan/ton (- 20), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 113 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,370 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 690.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 445.78 yuan/ton (+ 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,368.33 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.43 tons (- 0.99), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.36 tons (+ 0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 80.40% (- 0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 83.28% (+ 1.72%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 58.89% (- 1.36%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 77.80% (+ 2.63%) [2]. Market Analysis - The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of liquid caustic soda has remained stable. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, and upstream enterprises that previously reduced production due to high liquid chlorine subsidies have gradually increased their loads. The supply is expected to remain high, and there is still supply pressure with new capacity expected to be put into production from July to August. On the demand side, the alumina price has risen, and the operation rate has increased but is still low year - on - year. Non - aluminum demand is still weak, but the caustic soda export signing volume is good. Although the spot price in Shandong has increased and the factory inventory has decreased, there is a lack of obvious positive drivers in the supply - demand fundamentals, and the room for continuous rebound is limited [3]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view on caustic soda. The rebound of liquid chlorine price suppresses the upward movement of caustic soda. The supply - demand fundamentals lack obvious positive drivers, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profits, with limited room for continuous rebound [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [4] Core View - The threat of sanctions on Russia by Trump is likely to remain at the verbal stage, and the sanctions are not expected to be implemented due to concerns about a significant increase in oil prices and inflation [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 46 cents to $66.52 per barrel, a decrease of 0.69%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery in London dropped 50 cents to $68.71 per barrel, a decline of 0.72%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 1.26% at 516 yuan per barrel [1] - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending July 11 was 839,000 barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.637 million barrels and a previous value of 7.128 million barrels [2] - The OPEC monthly report maintained the global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day for 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day for 2026 [2] - The market's reaction to the US threat of sanctions on Russia was muted. Given the uncertainty of Trump's tariff and sanction strategies, "saw - tooth" price fluctuations may continue for the rest of the month [2] - The US Energy Secretary is considering innovative trading plans to replenish the oil reserve and may withdraw from the IEA if it does not reform its forecasting methods [2] Investment Logic - If the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire reaches a deadlock after 50 days, the US may impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. However, due to concerns about a sharp rise in oil prices and inflation, the sanctions are likely to remain a verbal threat [3] Strategy - The short - term oil price will fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [4] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include the US increasing sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]

油料日报 | 2025-07-16 短期震荡偏强，中长期修复看供应 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4149.00元/吨，较前日变化+18.00元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+151，较前日变化-18，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：7月14日(周一)，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货小幅收低，交易商表示，市场预计美国作物长 势将良好。CBOT交投最活跃的11月新作大豆合约收低1/4美分，结算价报每蒲式耳10.07美元。稍早触及三个月最 低的每蒲式耳9.98-1/4美元，跌破10美元的重要心理关口，随后跌幅有所缩减。7月15日，东北市场今日大豆价格 暂稳。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场 国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒 塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元 ...