市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15975元/吨，较前一日变动-155元/吨；NR主力合约12840元/吨，较前一日变动-170 元/吨；BR主力合约12000元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨。 化工日报 | 2026-01-14 原料价格坚挺，橡胶生产利润低迷 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15700元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15050元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1910美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1840 美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11850元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年12月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.5万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和 新能源），环比2025年11月下降约16%，比上年同期的8.42万辆增长约13%。纵观2025年全年，我国重卡市场实现 了九连涨，从4月份一直涨到12月份，平均增速高达41%。 2025年11月中 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-14 供需延续收紧，成本端支撑抬升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6014元/吨（-57），丙烯华东现货价6050元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5970元/吨（+35）， 丙烯华东基差36元/吨（+57），丙烯华北基差-154元/吨（-79）。丙烯开工率76%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR197美元/吨（-7），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR42美元/吨（+6），进口利润-247元/吨（+83），厂内库存44690吨（-3100）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-1.19%），生产利润-40元/吨（-5）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+0%），生产利润-47 元/吨（+68）；正丁醇开工率83%（+2%），生产利润507元/吨（-1）；辛醇开工率89%（+7%），生产利润730元/吨（-25）； 丙烯酸开工率87%（+4%），生产利润180元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+0%），生产利润-1164元/吨（-37）；酚 酮开工率86%（+5%），生产利润-776元/吨（+93）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车信息持续释放，金能二期90万吨P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil price increase has expanded, and it has shown a strong and oscillating trend during the Asian trading session. The escalating geopolitical risks in Iran continue to support the upward movement of oil prices. The PXN has retraced due to the weakening fundamentals, but the medium - term outlook remains positive, and the short - term decline in polyester operation rate is limited, so the PXN still has support. The PTA processing fee is expected to improve further in the long - term as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, and the inventory accumulation pressure in January is not significant [1]. - The polyester operation rate is 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%), while the weaving load continues to decline. The polyester load changes little, but the maintenance plans around the Spring Festival have been announced one after another, and the average monthly load in January is expected to drop to around 88%. The PF production profit is 10 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton), and the demand is weak. The PR spot processing fee is 537 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 21 yuan/ton), and the processing fee is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [2]. - For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to cautiously buy on dips for hedging in PX/PTA/PF/PR, and pay attention to the impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil prices. The PX mid - term outlook remains positive, the PTA processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term, the PF processing fee fluctuates weakly, and the PR processing fee is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][11] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][19] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The figures involve the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - The figures display the PTA operation rates in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operation rates in China and Asia [27][30][32] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - The figures cover the filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operation rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [48][50][58] 7. Detailed PF Data - The figures include the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][77][79] 8. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - The figures cover the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][88][94]

化工日报 | 2026-01-14 EG主港延续累库，价格承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3815元/吨（较前一交易日变动-65元/吨，幅度-1.68%），EG华东市场现货价 3682元/吨（较前一交易日变动-44元/吨，幅度-1.18%），EG华东现货基差-147元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。上周乙二醇显 性库存大幅堆积且近端到货依旧集中，现货基差走弱为主。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-70美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-851 元/吨（环比+11元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为80.2万吨（环比+7.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数16.6万吨，副 港到港量6.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.8万吨，副港到港量1.7万吨，整体略偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷7成以上高位继续提升，1~2月高 供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the battery tax rebate policy will have a significant impact on the lithium - ion battery industry, with high - quality development becoming the future trend and the industry structure being reshaped. For the lithium carbonate variety, it may support price increases in the short term but is more bearish in the long - term. The exchange's policy adjustments aim to prevent excessive speculation and maintain market order, which is expected to affect the volatility of lithium carbonate. The current price is highly affected by news, with over - speculation, slowing inventory depletion, and a basis deviation in the market, so there is a risk of a price correction [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 168,000 yuan/ton and closed at 166,980 yuan/ton, with a 7.44% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, and the open interest was 460,281 lots (the previous day's open interest was 506,702 lots). The current basis was - 9,420 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures), and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,898 lots, a change of 928 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 155,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton, a change of 7,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 152,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 7,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,190 US dollars/ton, a change of 105 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Inventory - The spot inventory was 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 715 tons; the downstream inventory was 36,540 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,458 tons; the other inventory was 52,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,080 tons. The inventory inflection point has appeared, and future attention should be paid to the actual consumption of downstream consumers [3] Strategy - The current price is highly affected by news, with over - speculation, slowing inventory depletion, and a basis deviation in the market. There is a short - term excessive increase, and the risk of a price correction should be vigilant [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: None [5] - Inter - delivery spread trading: None [6] - Cross - commodity trading: None [6] - Spot - futures trading: None [6] - Options trading: None [6]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Terminal demand for asphalt is gradually declining, while spot prices remain generally stable. The rigid demand for asphalt continues to decline, suppressing the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. Currently, there is a tug - of - war between cost - side support and weak demand. After pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan crude oil supply, the market has shifted to a volatile trend [1]. - In the context of escalating South American situation and the US intention to strengthen control over Venezuelan resources, the expectation of tightened supply of Venezuelan crude oil to domestic refineries is continuously materializing. If Venezuelan crude oil that originally flowed to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the US, domestic refineries will need to seek alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc. after depleting inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), which will make cost and product yield changes more complex and require dynamic tracking [1]. Market Analysis - On January 13th, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,125 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.66% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 207,908 lots, a decrease of 14,617 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 280,447 lots, an increase of 59,521 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,020 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China; 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in North China declined slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained basically stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Buy the main BU contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [2]. - Futures - cash: None [2]. - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market shows an "external strong and internal weak" pattern recently, with overseas supply tightening marginally and geopolitical tensions rising. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG disk, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market. In the medium - term, the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied, and the potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 13, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3910 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, East China market 4350 - 4550 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4700 - 5050 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 600 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In South China, propane was 592 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 587 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [1] - The disk continues to fluctuate strongly, the external market is firm, and the spot rose steadily yesterday, but there is differentiation among varieties. Ether - after carbon four is still weaker than civil gas. The market has an "external strong and internal weak" pattern, and the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied in the medium - term. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

现货升水格局延续 铜价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-14 期货行情： 2026-01-13，沪铜主力合约开于 104600元/吨，收于 102290元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-1.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 103,780元/吨，收于 103,540 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为贴水30元至升水150元/吨，均价为升水60元/吨，与昨 日持平。电解铜现货价格区间在101920-103100元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约呈现"V型"走势，开盘自102860元/吨下行 至102100元附近后反弹，盘中触及103700元高点，最终收于103160元/吨。隔月Contango价差在430-200元/吨之间， 当月进口亏损约1680-1930元/吨。市场方面，早间平水铜报价贴水50元至平水，好铜金川大板因货源紧张报升水150 元。金冠、中金等品牌成交于贴水50元至平水，湿法铜贴水50元成交，随后豫光报价上调至贴水20元，祥光、鲁 方以升水50-80元成交。午后价格小幅上行，中条山、豫光等按 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of PVC is weak. Although there may be a rush to export before April, the export situation is expected to decline significantly after April. The supply is abundant, downstream demand has a downward trend, and inventory is high. [3] - The supply - demand situation of caustic soda is also weak. The spot price is stable with a downward trend, the inventory is accumulating, the supply side is at a high - level of operation, and the demand side is lackluster. [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC futures contract is 4888 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis is -228 yuan/ton (+92), and the South China basis is -258 yuan/ton (+52) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - method PVC is quoted at 4660 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - method PVC is 4630 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - method production is - 634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - method production is - 192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is - 9.0 US dollars/ton (+9.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - method is 80.23% (+2.00%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - method is 75.69% (+0.41%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.85% (+1.51%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2131 yuan/ton (-49), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 25 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 674 yuan/ton (-14), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1080 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1081 yuan/ton (-44), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 554.0 yuan/ton (-3.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 242.95 yuan/ton (-3.75), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 584.50 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2] - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 85.74% (+1.07%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2] Group 4: Market Analysis PVC - The cancellation of export tax rebates from April 1 may lead to a rush to export, which is beneficial for contracts before April. However, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is abundant, downstream operation rate is generally flat with a downward trend, and inventory is high. The cost - side profit is still low compared to the same period last year, and the hedging pressure on the futures market exists. [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend, and the futures market is oscillating and correcting. The cost expectation is pushed up by the draft of differential electricity price in Shaanxi, but the impact is small. The supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, the supply side is at a high - level operation, and the demand side is lackluster. The price of liquid chlorine is rising. [3] Group 5: Strategies PVC - Unilateral trading: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go long on the V03 - 05 spread when it is low - Cross - variety trading: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral trading: Oscillation with a weak trend - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go short on the SH03 - 05 spread when it is high - Cross - variety trading: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. Iron ore fluctuates, while glass and soda ash show a weakening and fluctuating trend. The market heat of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has subsided, and they are also in a fluctuating state [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main contract weakened throughout the day, closing at 1,096 yuan/ton, a 3.09% decline. Spot prices were mostly flat, and market sentiment cooled. Although supply contracted due to cold repairs, demand did not improve significantly, with low downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The support for price increase was insufficient [1] - Soda Ash: The main contract weakened, with some spot prices dropping. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. Some operating rates increased, and the release progress of new production capacity needs attention. In the long - term, supply pressure remains [1] Strategy - Glass: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: As the market heat subsided, its price declined. The spot market fluctuated, and there was strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,750 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The fundamentals improved, but inventory pressure was still high. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill resumption and winter storage. The market is cautious about giving profits to enterprises, so it maintains a fluctuating state. South African tariff disturbances may increase manganese ore costs [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures fluctuated. The spot market changed little, and there was strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The fundamental contradictions were controllable, but downstream procurement slowed down, increasing factory inventory. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill resumption and winter storage. The price maintains a fluctuating state due to factors such as futures premium over spot and production control at a loss. The impact of Shaanxi's differential electricity price policy is relatively limited [3][4] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Fluctuating [5] - Ferrosilicon: Fluctuating [5]