Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass market is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with slight inventory reduction but limited overall changes. The glass price is volatile due to macro policies, while the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro policies and peak-season demand [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash persists. With the ignition of Yuanxing Phase II, the supply pressure will increase. Focus on whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, and monitor new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, the glass main contract 2601 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,252 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 2.88% increase. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,178 yuan/ton, a 14.9 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week [1][5]. - This week, the soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1,293 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 1.93% decrease. The downstream demand for soda ash was stable, mainly for pre - holiday rigid restocking [1][5]. Supply - This week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a 0.25% increase from the previous week [1][17]. - This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from the previous week; the output was 776,900 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous week [2][17]. Demand - This week, the glass trading sentiment was boosted by macro policies. The futures and spot markets resonated, with downstream prices rising and purchasing enthusiasm increasing. There was pre - holiday rigid restocking, and the production - sales ratio improved [1][19]. - This week, the downstream of soda ash mainly engaged in pre - holiday rigid restocking. The photovoltaic glass and float glass operations were stable, with no obvious changes in production lines [2][19]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 2.55% decrease from the previous week, indicating inventory reduction [1][23]. - This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, showing inventory reduction [2][23].

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-09-28 需求跟进偏弱，压制聚烯烃上行空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7159元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6893元/吨（-5），LL华北现货为7140 元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7140元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+10），LL 华东基差为-19元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-143元/吨（+5）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为81.8%（+1.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-1.8元/吨（-55.8），PP油制生产利润为-631.8元/吨（-55.8），PDH制PP生产利润 为-264.0元/吨（-39.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-56.7元/吨（-1.9），PP进口利润为-532.6元/吨（-1.9），PP出口利润为15.3美元/吨（+0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为32.9%（+6.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.4%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为43.9%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of device maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - level reverse spread opportunity; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Upstream device restart expectations and insufficient downstream demand drive the recent weak operation of propylene spot, and the futures market also fluctuates at a low level. On the supply side, the restart and capacity increase of Shandong Zhenhua's PDH device, the expected restart of Qingdao Jinneng, and the release of new capacity from Yulong increase the supply pressure in the short term. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stocking provides short - term support, but the stocking demand is poor due to cost pressure, with mainly low - price rigid demand purchases. In terms of cost, geopolitical tensions and the firmness of the external propane price support the cost side of propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report shows data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and market prices in East China and Shandong [1][5] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents data on the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [1][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances continue, the supply - demand balance remains fragile. Although there is a situation of "peak season not prosperous" on the demand side, it is not overly pessimistic. With the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the background of monetary easing combined with tight supply - demand fundamentals is expected to keep copper prices in a strong and volatile state. Under this supply disturbance, copper prices are expected to hit the previous high, with the range between 84,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Copper Futures Market Performance - On the night of September 25, 2025, copper futures rose sharply. The main contract, Shanghai Copper 2511, opened at 81,000 yuan/ton and closed at 82,610 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 3.28%. The trading volume was about 218,000 lots, with a daily increase of about 45,000 lots [3] Impact of the Accident on Production - The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia was caused by a mudslide, which led to the suspension of mining. The accident occurred in the "PB1C" area of the five production blocks of GBC, but damaged key infrastructure in other production areas. The GBC ore body accounted for 50% of PTFI's proven reserves at the end of 2024, and in 2024, the daily output of copper concentrate in the GBC mining area accounted for 64% of the overall output of the Grasberg mine. In Q3 2025, copper sales are expected to decline by 4% and gold by 6% compared with the July forecast. In Q4 2025, the original forecast for copper sales was 445 million pounds (about 202,000 tons). In 2026, the overall copper production may be reduced by 35% compared with the pre - accident forecast, with an estimated reduction of about 270,000 tons [3] Mine Restart Schedule - In Q4 2025, the Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mining areas among the three producing areas of the Grasberg mine may resume production. In H1 2026, the GBC mining area plans to resume production in stages (starting with the PB2 and PB3 blocks). In H2 2026, the PB1S block will resume production. In 2027, the PB1C block and the remaining areas will resume production, aiming to restore pre - accident production capacity. The entire resumption process will last about 1.5 - 2 years [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The EG futures price rebounded, and the spot basis weakened significantly. The demand recovery is slow, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with limited upside potential. In September, the EG balance sheet has little imbalance, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low. However, due to the early output of Yulong, the EG inventory accumulation time is advanced, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,246 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 63 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 287 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous day. The domestic ethylene glycol load remained stable at a high level [1][2] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, with insufficient order connection. The polyester load is expected to remain stable, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released on Mondays, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 46.7 tons, up 0.2 tons from the previous week. According to Longzhong data released on Thursdays, the inventory was 40.0 tons, up 1.7 tons from the previous week. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral in the short term and cautiously bearish in the medium term [5] Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand of the polyester industry chain has improved, leading to a rebound in the market. However, there are still various factors affecting the industry, including cost - side fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances in different segments, and uncertain future demand [1][2][3][4][5] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract price, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][16] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - This section includes PX processing fee, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Presents the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][46] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Covers the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][61] VII. PF Detailed Data - Contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventory, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [73][79][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and month - to - month spreads [91][95][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures rose 1.3% to 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.56% to 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has significantly declined, but there is still room for growth in the future. The upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited, and it is currently in a relatively balanced state [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly recently, but the overall supply pressure is limited. The trend of substitution of low - sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.3% at 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The net export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East in September is expected to be 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.21 million tons compared with August. However, there is still room for supply growth in the Middle East in the future, and the upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly due to the shutdown of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply pressure is limited, and the resistance above the market is still large [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices, swap near - month contracts, and month - to - month spreads of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of SHFE fuel oil and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts [3] Researcher Information - The researchers are Pan Xiang and Kang Yuanning, with practice qualification numbers F3023104 and F3049404 respectively, and investment consulting numbers Z0013188 and Z0015842 respectively [37]

原油日报 | 2025-09-26 策略 伊土原油管道出口将恢复 市场要闻与重要数据 1.\t纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1美分，收于每桶64.98美元，跌幅为0.02%；11月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨11美分，收于每桶69.42美元，涨幅为0.16%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.45%，报491元/桶。 2. \t俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯将在年底前对柴油出口实施部分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令。 在乌克兰加强了对众多炼油厂的无人机袭击之后，俄罗斯几个地区正面临某些等级燃料的短缺。报道引述诺瓦克 的话说，石油产品有少量短缺，但库存已被用来补缺。柴油禁令适用于转售者，而不适用于生产商。汽油禁令既 涉及生产商，也包括转售商，但不影响俄罗斯与蒙古等其他一些国家之间的政府间协议。诺瓦克表示："我们将很 快将汽油出口禁令延长至今年年底，对非生产商的柴油出口禁令也将延长至今年年底。"(来源：Bloomberg） 3.\t伊拉克总理宣布，已达成协议，将通过伊拉克-土耳其管道出口库尔德油田的石油。（来源：Bloomberg） 4.\t印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the price fluctuations of the black and infrastructure upstream industries, and presents the latest situation of the production and service industries through mid - level event overviews, as well as the operating conditions of the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The third fifth meeting of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held on September 24 in Xiongan New Area, with the low copper concentrate processing fees due to "involution - style" competition being the most prominent issue. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on September 25, emphasizing stable supply of "vegetable basket" products, winter - spring vegetable production, and regulation of pig production capacity [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Procurement and Acceptance Management of Bulk Food Ingredients in School Canteens" to improve campus food safety [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of glass (black) and cement (infrastructure) have rebounded [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester industry's operating rate is at a three - year median, power plant coal consumption is at a median level, and the asphalt operating rate is rising [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly declined, and the number of domestic flights is at a median level [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 9/25 | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price: Egg | 9/25 | 7.8 yuan/kg | - 3.13% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9/25 | 9188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.90% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 9/25 | 15106.7 yuan/ton | - 1.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 9/25 | 19.4 yuan/kg | - 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 9/25 | 82435.0 yuan/ton | 2.99% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 9/25 | 21864.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 20783.3 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 9/25 | 124400.0 yuan/ton | 1.18% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 17031.3 yuan/ton | - 0.33% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 9/25 | 3204.5 yuan/ton | 2.02% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 9/25 | 807.9 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 9/25 | 3385.0 yuan/ton | 1.27% | | | Spot price: Glass | 9/25 | 15.1 yuan/square meter | 5.60% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 9/25 | 14958.3 yuan/ton | 0.73% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 9/25 | 790.2 | - 0.39% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 9/25 | 65.0 dollars/barrel | 2.03% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 9/25 | 68.5 dollars/barrel | 1.48% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 9/25 | 3808.0 yuan/ton | - 1.19% | | | Coal price: Coal | 9/25 | 790.0 yuan/ton | 1.15% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 9/25 | 4635.0 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 9/25 | 7346.7 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Urea | 9/25 | 1647.5 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 9/25 | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 9/25 | 134.8 | 2.53% | | | Building materials composite index | 9/25 | 114.4 points | 0.33% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 9/25 | 91.7 points | - 0.09% | [36]