油料日报 | 2025-07-15 油料市场情绪稳定，价格持续震荡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4131.00元/吨，较前日变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.73%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+169，较前日变化-30，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙 江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行，东北地区大豆价格整体持稳，未来短期内供需状况难有改善，需重点关注储备豆的 拍卖可能给市场带来的变化。但近期地方储备拍卖停滞，因此市场相对安静，价格短期内难涨难跌。关内大豆价 格稳中有降，粮贸企业库存偏紧。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-15 现货购销冷清，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2992元/吨，较前日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.54%；菜粕2509合约2659元/吨，较前 日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.99%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-82， 较前日变动-16；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-182，较前日变动-16；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-192，较前日变动-16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2660 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM09+1，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部发布7月供需报告，将2025/26年度美国大豆产量下调500万蒲至43亿蒲，维持大豆单产 52.5蒲/英亩不变；大豆压榨量上调5000万蒲至25.4亿蒲；大豆出口量下调7000万蒲至17.5亿蒲；大豆期末库存上调 1500万蒲至3.1亿蒲。2025/26年度全球大豆产量为4.2768亿吨，较上月调高86万吨，比上一年度增加 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-15 成本端企稳反弹，EG价格上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4357元/吨（较前一交易日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.21%），EG华东市场现货价 4405元/吨（较前一交易日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.50%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）67元/吨（环比+2元/ 吨）。沙特几套产能分别为45、55、70万吨/年的乙二醇装置月初因电力问题降负荷/停车，近期重启不顺；另外煤 价在政策预期下持稳反弹，EG价格反弹。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-58美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为30元/吨（环比-12 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为55.3万吨（环比-2.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为48.1万吨（环比-6.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数9.6万吨，周度港口库存小幅去 库；本周华东主港计划到港总数4.5万吨，但副港到货计划集中6.5万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，检修集中期已过，乙二醇国产量呈现回升态势，7月负荷将逐步回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Market trading sentiment has weakened, and downstream factories are cautious in purchasing. Urea production remains high due to few planned maintenance schedules for urea enterprises. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continues to progress, the compound fertilizer industry's production has increased, and it is gradually purchasing raw materials for autumn fertilizers, resulting in a temporary increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with the melamine industry's production declining month - on - month and the panel industry being sluggish. Urea exports are favorable, with an increasing willingness to gather at ports, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream factory inventory, awaiting the announcement of a new round of export quotas [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 14, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,764 yuan/ton (-9). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1,840 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,820 yuan/ton (-40); in Jiangsu, it was 1,840 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 56 yuan/ton (-31); in Henan, it was 76 yuan/ton (-1); in Jiangsu, it was 76 yuan/ton (-11) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 14, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08). Urea enterprises have few maintenance plans, and production remains at a high level [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On July 14, 2025, the urea production profit was 290 yuan/ton (-40). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.43%) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On July 14, 2025, the export profit was 879 yuan/ton (+194). Urea exports are favorable, with an increasing willingness to gather at ports, and port inventory is continuously increasing [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 14, 2025, the number of pre - received order days for urea enterprises was 5.94 days (+0.58). The compound fertilizer industry is gradually purchasing raw materials for autumn fertilizers, and the demand for urea shows a temporary increase. Industrial demand remains weak, with the melamine industry's production declining month - on - month and the panel industry being sluggish [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+4.80). Urea upstream factory inventory is decreasing, and port inventory is increasing [1][2]

Market Analysis - On July 14, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 opened at 64,300 yuan/ton and closed at 66,480 yuan/ton, up 3.71% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,014,558 lots, and the open interest was 356,161 lots, an increase of 33,301 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 600,972 lots, an increase of 9,072 lots. The total trading volume of contracts increased by 4,747 lots to 502,065, and the overall speculation degree was 0.84. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 11,204 lots, a decrease of 399 lots from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures showed a strong upward trend yesterday, opening higher, oscillating and surging, with bulls dominating during the session and stabilizing at a high level at the end of the session, finally closing up 3.71% [1]. - According to SMM data, on July 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 63,500 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Strategy - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures was mainly affected by news disturbances from Jiangxi's mining end and short - term warehouse receipt cancellations. July warehouse receipts need to be compulsorily cancelled, and there are few newly registered warehouse receipts currently, resulting in significant short - term delivery games, which have a greater impact on near - month contracts. The impact of the Jiangxi mining end disturbance on subsequent mining is not clear, and its short - term impact on supply and demand is relatively limited. Currently, the supply and demand are still relatively loose [2]. - In the medium to long term, there has been no substantial change in the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate, and recent policies have little impact on it. The rebound height should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the impact of mining end disturbances. If the production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is affected, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate will change [2]. - Unilateral strategy: Wait and see for near - month contracts, and sell and hedge on rallies for far - month contracts. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil prices have reached a three - week high, and concerns about potential US sanctions on Russia may tighten global supply. Coupled with increased Chinese crude oil imports, the stronger crude oil prices drive the plant oils to fluctuate on the strong side [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +66 yuan (+0.76%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +8.00 yuan (+0.10%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,424.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -15.00 yuan (-0.16%) [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan (+0.23%), and the spot basis was P09 + 22.00, with a daily change of -46.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10.00 yuan/ton (-0.12%), and the spot basis was Y09 + 146.00, with a daily change of -18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -20.00 yuan (-0.21%), and the spot basis was OI09 + 126.00, with a daily change of -5.00 yuan [1] Market News - India's palm oil imports in June surged 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [2] - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The stock of social financing scale at the end of June 2025 was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - As of July 11, 2025 (week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 563,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27,900 tons (5.21%) and a year - on - year increase of 47,300 tons (9.18%); the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1,049,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,700 tons (2.91%) [2] Import Prices - Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price was 573 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price was 563 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) C&F price was 1,137 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was 1,087 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 449 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 444 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 463 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West Coast (August shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 253 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [2] - Inter - period strategy: None [2] - Inter - variety strategy: None [2] - Futures - spot strategy: None [2] - Options strategy: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the closing price of the main BU2509 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,646 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous settlement price; the open interest was 231,231 lots, up 13,867 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 151,549 lots, down 7,524 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,650 - 4,070 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,600 - 3,680 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in the northwest and Shandong markets rose slightly, while those in other regions remained generally stable. The recent strong trend of crude oil prices provided some support for asphalt spot and market sentiment [1] - The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remained weak, with low inventory and relatively insignificant market contradictions. There were growth expectations on both the supply and demand sides, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the inventory trend after the expectations were realized. If the inventory continued to rise from a low level, the market structure and sentiment of asphalt would be suppressed to some extent [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - Futures market data of asphalt on July 14, including closing price, price change, open interest change, and trading volume change of the main contract [1] - Spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions [1] - Price trends of asphalt in different regions and the impact of crude oil prices on asphalt [1] - The supply - demand and inventory situation of asphalt and the potential impact of inventory changes on the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral, inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options strategies for asphalt investment [2] Figures - Figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, Northwest China) [3][10][17] - Figures related to asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread) [3][17][20] - Figures related to asphalt futures trading volume and open interest (unilateral, main contract) [3][19] - Figures related to asphalt production (domestic weekly, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China) [3][27][29] - Figures related to asphalt consumption (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel) [3][36][37] - Figures related to asphalt inventory (refinery, social) [3][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall volatility of the non - ferrous sector has led to a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The terminal demand for electric vehicle and automotive batteries remains weak, with slow inventory digestion by dealers, resulting in insufficient new orders for production enterprises. Some manufacturers choose to temporarily halt or reduce production to relieve inventory pressure. The upcoming 15% - 20% new tariff policy in the US poses greater challenges to the industry's exports [1][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On July 14, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.62 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to -20.00 yuan per ton, SMM Guangdong lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton, SMM Henan lead changed by -50 yuan per ton to 16,875 yuan per ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -75 yuan per ton to 16,925 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,275 yuan per ton, while the prices of waste white shells and black shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan per ton and 10,575 yuan per ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,055 yuan per ton and closed at 17,085 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 31,556 lots, a decrease of 20,905 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 52,444 lots, a decrease of 1,035 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,130 yuan per ton and a low of 17,020 yuan per ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,060 yuan per ton and closed at 17,035 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and there was more queuing for pick - up due to reduced supply from smelters. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead average price, and small factories' lead could be quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton. In Jiangxi, smelters' inventory decreased, and quotes were firm, at a premium of 120 yuan per ton to the SMM1 lead price. The spot market trading was weaker in the south and stronger in the north [2] Inventory - On July 14, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous week. As of July 14, the LME lead inventory was 260,950 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is cautiously bullish. The starting - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces dropped to 70.76% in the first week of July, a 1.07 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump used high - tariff threats last week but signaled negotiation on Monday, showing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, and the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher [3] - China's June financial data shows that the social financing scale and RMB loans have improved year - on - year, and the import and export data shows signs of stabilization, indicating overall economic development [3] - The A - share market showed a shrinking trading volume, with the market transitioning from large - financial stocks to resource stocks. The adjustment of the banking sector drove up the individual - stock profit - making effect, but short - term chasing risks should be watched out for [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Financial Data**: In the first half of this year, China's social financing scale increment was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. At the end of June, the M2 balance increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - **Domestic Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports by 2.3% [1] - **Overseas Trade News**: Trump said the US will negotiate on tariffs with other countries and is open to trade negotiations with Europe. The EU will also discuss trade issues with the US, and the US has reached some trade agreements [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. Most sector indexes rose, with machinery, public utilities, and household appliances leading the gains, and real estate, media, and non - bank finance sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell slightly below 1.5 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.27% to 20640.33 points [2] - **Futures Market Situation**: In the futures market, the current - month contract will be delivered this Friday, and the basis is converging. The trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased simultaneously [2] 2. Strategy - Trump's tariff strategy and the positive domestic economic data led to a slightly higher close of US stocks and a shrinking - volume A - share market. The market transitioned, and short - term chasing risks should be noted [3] 3. Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.07% to 4017.67 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00% to 2757.81 points, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.10% to 6020.86 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.02% to 6462.31 points [13] - Other charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][14] 5. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures decreased. For example, the open interest of IF was 80048 (down 83463), and the trading volume was 263468 (down 19160) [6][18] - **Basis**: The basis of index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 0.21 (up 12.61) [6][41] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of index futures also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 14.60 (up 3.40) [6][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. However, due to increased soda ash production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the supply - demand situation worsened, and soda ash prices declined. The futures price of the main contract dropped nearly 30%, and the spot price fell 19%. Recently, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the soda ash futures price rebounded about 8.5% from the low, but the spot price remained stable and weak [2][8]. - In the first half of 2025, although the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. It is expected that the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and may rebound in October, with an annual supply increase of about 1.1% [2]. - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. As the "anti - involution" measures in the photovoltaic industry are implemented, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has declined, restricting the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the production of float and photovoltaic glass may continue to decline in the second half of the year, dragging down the demand for heavy soda ash. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% in heavy soda ash demand, while light soda ash demand will increase by 7.3% [3][7]. - In the first half of this year, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of 2025, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [7]. - In the first half of this year, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and the total inventory may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [7]. - The recommended strategy is to sell hedging at high prices [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Recent Soda Ash Price and Profit Situation - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. Then, due to increased production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the price of soda ash futures contract 09 dropped from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,147 yuan/ton, a decline of nearly 30%, and the mainstream average price of national heavy soda ash dropped from 1,600 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 19% [16]. - Recently, under the "anti - involution" policy, the price of photovoltaic silicon materials increased significantly, and the soda ash futures price rebounded from 1,147 yuan/ton to 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5%, but the spot price remained stable and weak [16]. - Since 2024, the profit of the soda ash industry has declined significantly. Recently, the profits of the co - production method and the ammonia - soda method have both been in the negative, with losses of - 114 yuan/ton and - 134 yuan/ton respectively [21]. 2. Limited Impact of Summer Maintenance, High - level Soda Ash Supply - In the first half of 2025, although 2.4 million tons of new soda ash production capacity was added, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, including a 4.0% year - on - year decrease in heavy soda ash production and a 5% year - on - year increase in light soda ash production [26]. - July is the traditional high - temperature maintenance season for soda ash enterprises. Due to the exothermic reaction of soda ash production, high - temperature, and humid weather, enterprises usually conduct maintenance. It is expected that the scale of summer maintenance this year may be slightly smaller than in previous years, but if prices continue to fall, more enterprises may carry out centralized maintenance [33][37]. - Considering the impact of summer maintenance, the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain above 3.1 million tons on average, and is expected to be around 3.2 million tons in October, increasing the supply surplus. The annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1%, or 400,000 tons [41]. 3. Negative Impact of Photovoltaic Supply - side on Consumption, Soda Ash Demand May Continue to Decline - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. The "anti - involution" work in key industries such as automobiles, steel, and photovoltaics has made positive progress. For example, domestic top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to cut production by 30% starting from July [43][45]. - From January to June 2025, the total daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass was 253,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%, and the corresponding consumption of heavy soda ash decreased by 11% year - on - year [47]. - Recently, the glass market has improved slightly, but the photovoltaic industry is still weak. The supply of photovoltaic glass has decreased due to kiln production cuts and cold repairs, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the inventory has increased. The price of Wuhu Xinyi photovoltaic glass has dropped to 18.5 yuan/square meter [51]. - In the first half of the year, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in apparent demand from January to June. Different downstream industries have different operating conditions, such as the 80% start - up rate of sodium silicate manufacturers and the 88.6% start - up rate of the monosodium glutamate industry [53]. - For the second half of the year, considering the poor profitability of float and photovoltaic glass enterprises, the number of new and restarted production lines is expected to be limited, and the probability of cold - repair production lines is higher, which may further reduce the demand for heavy soda ash [54]. 4. Decline in Domestic Soda Ash Price, High - level Soda Ash Exports - In the first half of 2025, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of the year, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [63]. 5. Soda Ash Total Inventory Expected to Continue Rising in the Second Half of the Year - In the first half of 2025, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. The latest inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.863 million tons, the inventory of sample glass factories was equivalent to 23.4 days of use, and the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses was 238,000 tons. The total inventory of the three links reached 2.805 million tons, at an absolute high level compared with the same period [66]. - Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [69]. 6. Summary - Price and profit: Similar to the previous analysis, the price of soda ash futures dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped relatively less. Recently, the futures price rebounded under the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot price remained stable and weak [72]. - Supply: In the first half of the year, new production capacity was added, but early maintenance led to a decline in production. Summer maintenance may have a limited impact, and the annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1% [72]. - Demand: "Anti - involution" has affected the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash may continue to decline in the second half of the year. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to the decline in heavy soda ash demand [73]. - Net export: Exports were strong in the first half of the year and are expected to remain high in the second half, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year [74]. - Inventory: The over - capacity problem was obvious in the first half of the year, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year [74]. - Strategy: Sell hedging at high prices [9].