1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continued increase in trading volume but decline in the equity market on the day reflects certain selling pressure in the market. The short - term adjustment is normal, and the spring market is not over. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a counter - rally [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro - economic situation**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises, emphasizing active participation in industry rule - making and self - regulatory mechanism construction and resisting "involution". The World Bank raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It is predicted that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, the eurozone economic growth will slow down to 0.9%, and Japan's economic growth will slow down to 0.8%. The US CPI in December 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [1] - **Stock index adjustment**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day winning streak, falling 0.64% to close at 4138.76 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96%. Most sector indexes declined. The petroleum and petrochemical, pharmaceutical, and non - ferrous metal industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, electronics, communications, and computer industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 3.65 trillion yuan, setting a new record. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.8% to 49191.99 points [1] Futures Market - **IC position increase**: In the futures market, on the basis of the basis, this Friday is the delivery day of the current - month contracts, and the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures are at a premium. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - The continued increase in trading volume but decline in the equity market on the day reflects certain selling pressure in the market. The short - term adjustment is normal, and the spring market is not over. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a counter - rally [3] Chart Summary - **Macro - economic charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][10][9] - **Spot market tracking charts**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 13, 2026 shows that all indexes declined to varying degrees. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% to 14169.40 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.96% to 3321.89 points. Also includes the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [12][13] - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased, while the open interest of IM decreased. The trading volume of IF was 172,729 (an increase of 16,637), the open interest was 307,410 (an increase of 5,440); the trading volume of IH was 67,378 (an increase of 13,333), the open interest was 94,858 (an increase of 3,136); the trading volume of IC was 212,314 (an increase of 8,960), the open interest was 317,086 (an increase of 6,136); the trading volume of IM was 305,102 (an increase of 6,539), the open interest was 401,618 (a decrease of 1,419) [14] - **Basis**: The basis of each contract of the four major stock index futures has different fluctuations. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF is 5.17 (an increase of 5.69) [34] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different contracts of the four major stock index futures have different changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF is - 3.20 (an increase of 5.60) [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term nickel prices face multiple pressures such as high inventory, weak demand, and the ebb of macro - sentiment, and may continue to decline in a volatile manner. However, attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel quota adjustment policy. If the policy is tightened more than expected, it may support prices. - Short - term stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile trend, mainly affected by high inventory, weak demand, and cost - side fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy and the production and stocking rhythm of steel mills [1][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 145,000 yuan/ton and closed at 138,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.21% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 1,277,690 (+194,488) lots, and the open interest was 119,485 (-4,663) lots. The main contract showed a "high - opening, low - running + volatile downward" trend, driven by the ebb of macro - sentiment, high inventory on the supply side, weak demand, and the fading of geopolitical risk premium [1]. Nickel Ore - Mysteel reported that there were transactions in the nickel ore market recently. The CIF price of domestic 1.3% nickel ore was 42 US dollars. The overall nickel ore resources in the market were limited, and the nickel ore price was running strongly. Philippine mines were eager to sell at higher prices. The downstream nickel - iron price reached 1,000 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) and above. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) was expected to rise by 2.8 - 4.9 US dollars/wet ton. The current mainstream premium was +25, and the premium range was mostly between +25 - 26. Factories may push down the premium due to cost pressure [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 148,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were slowly falling. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed 0 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 39,436 (-234) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,148 (-414) tons [2]. Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly operate within a range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,890 yuan/ton and closed at 13,790 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 256,128 (-551) lots, and the open interest was 130,200 (-4,171) lots. The contract opened higher due to the overnight rise of LME nickel but was dragged down by the rapid decline of Shanghai nickel, and the price fluctuated downward with weakening spot trading. In the afternoon, the continuous decline of Shanghai nickel triggered selling pressure, and the price fell below 13,800 yuan/ton, reaching a minimum of 13,705 yuan/ton and finally closing at 13,790 yuan/ton [3]. Spot - In the morning, the spot price rose slightly due to the increase in futures prices, but the market was afraid of high prices, and the inquiry and trading were poor. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,750 (-25) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 175 - 375 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron changed 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 980.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, with both prices falling on January 13, 2026 [1][3]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, supported by the increase in coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices under the situation of reduced supply and demand. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost and production - cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, due to the new policy of canceling export tax rebates for photovoltaic value - added tax and the failure of coordinated price - support efforts, the short - term is to stay on the sidelines, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to short on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 13, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8710 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 242,469 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 12 was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton. The prices in various regions remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The total social inventory in major industrial silicon regions on January 8 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. - **Consumption Analysis** - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The cancellation of the photovoltaic value - added tax export tax rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand, and strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, but the demand boost has not yet appeared. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak - shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable and slightly weak [2]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On January 13, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 49,655 yuan/ton and closing at 49,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 48,844 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 28,379 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, a decrease of 1.30% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW, an increase of 13.11% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 0.80% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.52GW, an increase of 3.34% month - on - month [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium - to - long - term, short on rallies. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract will maintain weak oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for both apple and红枣 is neutral [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - Apple market: Although the Spring Festival stocking has started and the trading atmosphere in production areas has slightly improved, the trading volume of farmers' goods is still limited. The sales in the distribution areas are slow, and the apple sales space is squeezed by low - price fruits. The cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the low excellent - fruit rate supports the price [2][3] -红枣 market: The new - season acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes is basically over, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The traditional lunar December approaching may bring a peak in the market, but the supply pressure remains due to the superposition of new and old jujube inventories [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9779 yuan/ton, up 149 yuan/ton or 1.55% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1579 and AP05 - 1379 decreased by 149 respectively [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose after a high - level retreat. The overall trading atmosphere in the main production areas was still light. The procurement and packaging were mainly in Gansu and Liaoning. The market showed that high - quality fruits had stable prices, while the prices of ordinary goods were loose. The cold - storage inventory was at a low level, and the destocking speed accelerated last week [3] Strategy - The strategy for the apple market is neutral [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the红枣 2605 contract yesterday was 9060 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 860 increased by 100 [4] Market Analysis - The jujube futures price fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition of Xinjiang grey jujubes is basically over, and the supply pressure is emerging. The approaching of the traditional lunar December may bring a peak in the market, but the supply pressure remains due to the superposition of new and old jujube inventories [6] Strategy - The strategy for the红枣 market is neutral [7]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-14 猪价窄幅波动，观察压力变化 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 全国大部地区猪价维持上涨态势，其中南方相对北方偏强，全国高价区主要集中在华东局地，价格高点接近14.0。 养殖端整体出栏积极性仍然一般，中旬的出栏节奏逐渐稳步提升，下旬或面临一定出栏压力。屠宰端反馈白条的 走货有所放缓，需求端跟进稍显不足，对高价猪源接受度转弱。从距离春节时间上看预计二次育肥大量再入场的 概率低。关注下旬供需双增背景下猪价的变动趋势。 策略 中性 风险 疫病情况 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘鸡蛋 2603合约2990元/500 千克，较前交易日变动-30.00元，幅度-0.99%。现货方面，辽宁地 区鸡蛋现货价格3.27元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.09，现货基差 JD03+280，较前交易日变动+120；山东地区鸡蛋现 货价格3.60元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.10，现货基差 JD03+610，较前交易日变动+130；河北地区鸡蛋现货价格3.16 元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.05，现货基差 JD03+170，较前交易日变动+80。 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11795元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None - Cross - period: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the escalating domestic situation in Iran and the position adjustment of commodity index funds, oil prices are oscillating strongly in the short term but are highly influenced by news, with unclear direction for FU and LU. The fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors with limited overall contradictions. The sharp decline in the crack spread in the US Gulf has dragged down the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets. However, after domestic asphalt refineries consume their existing raw materials around March, high - sulfur fuel oil may fill some gaps, and the decline in the crack spread is beneficial for downstream demand. Iran's fuel oil shipments are showing signs of decline, with potential supply risks accumulating. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions and drivers are limited. Local supply may increase, but the high premiums of gasoline and diesel will support the market by diverting low - sulfur oil components [2] 3. Summary of Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.53% at 2461 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.66% at 3066 yuan/ton [1] - Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments may decline. Based on shipping schedule data, Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in January are expected to be 490,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 620,000 tons [2] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options strategies: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Agricultural and upstream energy prices are rising. There have been various policy and data events in the production and service industries. The prices and operating conditions of different industries at the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream levels show different trends. [1][2][3][35] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - quality Development of Industrial Internet Platforms (2026 - 2028)", aiming to have over 450 influential platforms, over 120 million industrial equipment connections, and a platform penetration rate of over 55% by 2028. It also promotes the integration of industrial Internet and AI. [1] - The Ministry of Commerce decided to continue imposing anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years starting from January 14, 2026. [1] Service Industry - The US December consumer price index increased 2.7% year - on - year, and the core consumer price index increased 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in April is about 42%. [2] 3.2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Nickel and aluminum prices slightly declined. - Agriculture: Egg and palm oil prices increased. - Energy: Liquefied natural gas and international crude oil prices slightly increased. [3] Mid - stream - Chemical industry: PX operating rate remained stable at a high level, PTA operating rate was low, and urea operating rate was high. - Energy: Power plant coal consumption decreased. - Infrastructure: Road asphalt operating rate continued to decline. [3] Downstream - Real estate: Commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities continued to increase, while those in first - tier cities slightly decreased. - Service: The number of domestic flights increased. [3] 3.3. Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products such as eggs (up 9.85%) and palm oil (up 3.45%) saw price increases, while some non - ferrous metals like nickel (down 3.59%) and certain aluminum prices (down 1.74%) decreased. Energy products like liquefied natural gas (up 10.67%) and Brent crude oil (up 3.42%) had price hikes. [35]

油脂日报 | 2026-01-14 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8778.00元/吨，环比变化+54元，幅度+0.62%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7986.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9017.00元/吨，环比变化+37.00元，幅度+0.41%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.69%，现货基差P05+-18.00，环比变化 +6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.48%，现货基差Y05+414.00， 环比变化+48.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差 OI05+753.00，环比变化+3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印度12月棕榈油进口量为507204吨，低于11月的632341吨，印度12月葵花籽油进口量为349929 吨，高于11月的142953吨，印度12月大豆油进口量为505112吨，高于11月的370661吨，印度12月植物油进口量为 138万吨，高于11月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [1][3][6] Core Views - The USDA report is bullish for cotton, but short - term ICE cotton is under pressure while the long - term downside is limited. Domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possible tightening of inventory at the end of the year [1] - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices [3] - Overseas pulp supply is disrupted, and there is a replenishment expectation before the Spring Festival. Domestic demand may show a mild recovery, and short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+0.92%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA January report, in the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu. The harvest area increased to 47.376 million mu, and the yield was expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. Consumption was expected to be 348,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%, and exports were expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged. Ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded. Internationally, the short - term ICE cotton is under pressure due to supply and weak consumption, but the long - term downside is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. Although downstream demand has declined recently, annual consumption is expected to be high, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced with a possible inventory tightening at the end of the year [1] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term risks of high - level corrections should be watched, and long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.61%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - As of January 12, 2026, in the 2025/26 Thai sugar season, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons (-19.94%) from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 583,600 tons (-21.18%) [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices closed down. The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices, but import pressure remains [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downside [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices slightly adjusted downwards [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices fluctuated narrowly. Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance in late 2025. European demand continued to improve in November, while domestic demand was weak, but there was a marginal increase in demand in December, which may support pulp prices [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall consumption is still sluggish, and it is difficult for the lead price to perform well. The lead price may fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 13, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.63/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,200 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,480 yuan/ton and closed at 17,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,329 lots, a decrease of 5,038 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 34,986 lots, a decrease of 5,327 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,495 yuan/ton and a low of 17,270 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On January 13, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 13, the LME lead inventory was 218,925 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The downstream of the lead industry may experience a slight increase in production after the New Year's Day. However, some enterprises may consider reducing production or arranging holidays if orders remain sluggish. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees are still low. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [4]