Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]

1. Report Core View - The report presents the market liquidity situation on July 14, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors [1][2] 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Plate Liquidity - Provides overall market liquidity data of various sectors, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 2.2 Stock Index Plate - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 3775.44 billion yuan, a change of - 50.10% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 10747.59 billion yuan, a change of - 7.79% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 35.10% [1] 2.3 Treasury Bond Plate - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 3480.32 billion yuan, a change of - 20.56% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 9182.86 billion yuan, a change of + 0.15% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 38.74% [1] 2.4 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic metal: On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 4804.88 billion yuan, a change of - 0.85% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4833.46 billion yuan, a change of - 1.13% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 140.05% - Precious metal: On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 4735.90 billion yuan, a change of + 4.67% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4489.96 billion yuan, a change of + 3.79% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 134.92% [1] 2.5 Energy Chemical Plate - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 4901.17 billion yuan, a change of - 5.24% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4376.89 billion yuan, a change of + 0.67% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 90.63% [1] 2.6 Agricultural Product Plate - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 2981.73 billion yuan, a change of - 4.94% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5741.16 billion yuan, a change of - 0.03% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 49.92% [1] 2.7 Black Building Material Plate - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume was 2209.06 billion yuan, a change of - 27.28% compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3757.79 billion yuan, a change of - 0.38% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 59.17% [2]

Group 1: Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: Seasonal off - peak is evident, downstream开工率 drops, but inventory is at a historically low level. Macro situation is temporarily positive. Aluminum smelting profit expands to 4000 yuan/ton in the off - peak season. A price correction due to inventory accumulation will provide an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions. In the long run, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [1][3]. - **Alumina**: The spot market price rises. Supply is slightly in surplus, with inventory accumulation accelerating at the raw material reserve of electrolytic aluminum plants. The low - warehouse receipt problem persists, but the in - transit inventory is increasing. The Axis mine right issue may be resolved, increasing the expectation of mine restart. Alumina smelting profit remains, and the long - term surplus expectation remains unchanged [4][5]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost side supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract which turns into a peak - season contract [6]. 3. Strategies - **Unilateral**: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 short AL11 [7]. Group 2: Key Data 1. Aluminum - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20330 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20460 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20640 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20415 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 1.45%. The trading volume was 208641 lots, an increase of 88416 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 222489 lots, a decrease of 32657 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 50.1 tons [1]. 2. Alumina - **Spot price**: On July 14, 2025, Shanxi alumina price was 3150 yuan/ton, Shandong price was 3140 yuan/ton, Guangxi price was 3250 yuan/ton, and Australian alumina FOB price was 366 dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures price**: On July 14, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3145 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a decline of - 0.6% [2]. 3. Aluminum alloy - **Price**: On July 14, 2025, Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15100 yuan/ton, mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15300 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. ADC12 Baotai quoted price was 19500 yuan/ton, down - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price difference between ADC12 and A00 in East China was - 870 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 3.14 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.25 tons; the in - plant inventory was 7.09 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.79 tons; the total inventory was 10.23 tons, with a weekly decrease of - 0.54 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: Suspended [6] Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a volatile downward trend, mainly due to the widening spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in non-US market copper prices. Domestic copper prices are temporarily suppressed, and domestic social inventories have increased. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see attitude [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 14, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,040 yuan/ton and closed at 78,400 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 77,900 yuan/ton and closed at 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was stable. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 78,370 - 78,540 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The market supply was sufficient, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery was average. It is expected that today's quotes will remain firm [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump threatened to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia-Ukraine conflict agreement is not reached within 50 days, and also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. Brazil will announce counter - tariff measures against the US, and the EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion euros of US goods. The European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week [3]. - **Mine End**: Rio Tinto is optimistic about the US government's push for domestic key mineral production and hopes to increase investment in US copper mining. Mercuria Energy Group and a Zambian state - owned company will ship copper ore for the first time. In Peru, protests by informal miners may affect the production of two major copper mines [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: As of the week of July 8, the net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds continued to increase to 39,604 lots. The US tariff policy on imported copper led to a sharp rise in US copper prices and increased fund bulls' confidence [3]. - **Consumption**: - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The operating rate last week rebounded to 67%, but was still lower than expected. It is expected to rise to 74.57% next week, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected [4]. - **Copper Cable Industry**: The operating rate reached 71.52%, an unexpected rebound. However, due to terminal capital pressure, it is expected to fall to 70.57% next week [4][5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 109,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 11,072 tons to 34,379 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 14 was 14.76 million tons, changing by 0.39 million tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to take a neutral stance and wait - and - see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to suspend operations [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-15 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 绝对价格与现货基差同步走弱 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.36 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌250元/吨至22180元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至30元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌250元/吨至22110元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-40元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌240元/吨 至22140元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-14沪锌主力合约开于22225元/吨，收于22250元/吨，较前一交易日下跌150元/吨，全天交易日 成交136140手，较前一交易日增加6783手，全天交易日持仓94177手，较前一交易日减少13455手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22265元/吨，最低点达到22130元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.31万吨，较上周同期增加0.4万吨。截止2025-07-14，LME 锌库存为113400吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Treasury bond futures market oscillated downward. Affected by the continuous net withdrawal by the central bank with a still loose capital - side and the economic expectation adjustment due to the easing of overseas tariffs, the yields of both short - and long - term bonds increased. Meanwhile, the strong stock market drove the risk appetite to recover, and funds flowed from the bond market to the equity market, forming an obvious "stock - bond seesaw" effect. The bond market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year yield expected to fluctuate between 1.64% - 1.68%. In the medium and long term, it will maintain the basis for a bull market supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.11, with a day - on - day increase of 0.24 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1702, with a day - on - day increase of 0.003 (+0.05%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.52, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.71%); DR007 was 1.54, with a day - on - day increase of 0.06 (+4.36%); R007 was 1.68, with a day - on - day increase of 0.04 (+2.35%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.31%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1 - year) was 0.06, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+1.31%) [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the maturity yield trends of Treasury bonds of various terms, the valuation changes of Treasury bonds of various terms in the past day, the precipitation fund trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the trading - to - position ratio of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [10][12][14]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Side - Relevant figures include the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, bond lending turnover and the total position of Treasury bond futures, Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][28][30]. 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][39][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [42][45][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [51][54][52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [59][62][64]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of Treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [67][70][73]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the repurchase rate rising and the Treasury bond futures price oscillating, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, and the domestic cotton price will be under pressure in the medium - long term; the upward space of sugar price is limited due to the expected increase in supply; the pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the July USDA report is bearish as it raises global cotton production and ending stocks. There is insufficient weather - related narrative on the supply side, and the global cotton market will be supply - loose in the 25/26 season. Domestically, the rapid depletion of commercial cotton stocks and weather disturbances support the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and the weak demand in the off - season limit the upward space. In the long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the cotton price [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is strong, the medium - long - term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the second half of June, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased more than expected, with a 12.86% year - on - year decline in cane crushing volume and a 12.98% decline in sugar production [2][3] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under long - term downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar price [4] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. In the medium - long term, the view of shorting on rallies is maintained [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market showed different trends, with some prices rising slightly and some falling [6] Market Analysis - The pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, as the port inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]

化工日报 | 2025-07-15 需求端库存压力增大，宏观氛围偏暖 市场要闻与数据 1、市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月17日附近投产。 2、国内社融和出口数据好于预期，宏观气氛偏暖。 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，短期胡赛武装对红海商船扰动影响原油供应预期，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN253美元/吨(环比变动-8.25美元/吨）。近期在PTA基差以及加工差大幅压缩后，PTA工 厂连续出售PX压价，PXN压缩。PX当前缺乏更多的供应端利好,供需面不及前期强势,但在需求端没有明显利空的 情况下，低库存下PXN继续下降空间也有限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 8 元/吨(环比变动+8元/吨），PTA现货加工费124元/吨（环比变动-56元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费362元/吨（环比变动+2元/吨），伴随主流供应商出货和下游负荷下降，同时7月PTA装置检修不多， 另外三房巷装置计划投产，PTA基差快速走低，PTA自身基本面偏弱，关注低加工费下的检修增加可能。 需求方面，聚酯开工率88.8%（环比-1.4%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工加速下滑，坯布库存再度累积至 ...

市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14360元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。NR主力合约12325元/吨，较前一日变动-50 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14300元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14150元/吨， 较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1745美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1685美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江 传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 化工日报 | 2025-07-15 青岛港口库存延续小幅回升 市场资讯 2025年6月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计59.9万吨，较2024年同期的47.1万吨增加27.2%。上半年，中国 进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计407.5万吨，较去年同期的328.4万吨增加24.1%。 据隆众了解，检修半钢胎企业开工目前多已恢复至高位水平，因供应量减少，企业常规出货下，部分企业内销规 格出现少量缺货现象，对整体影响不大，企业产能利用率恢复性提升对整体产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total volume of the financial industry grew. The logistics and transportation in the service industry showed steady growth, with positive year - on - year growth in imports, exports, and exports in June, and the growth rates were rising. The upstream energy prices were volatile, and the prices of some agricultural products rebounded. The开工 rates of some chemical products in the mid - stream recovered, and the real - estate sales in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low, while the number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Production Industry - **Coal Industry**: The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized maintaining safety, scientific production, improving supply quality, and promoting market balance. It will act as a bridge between the government and enterprises to deal with risks [1]. - **Trade Tariffs**: The EU may impose additional counter - tariff measures on US$84 billion worth of US imported goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [1]. 2. Service Industry - **Monetary and Credit Data**: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 272.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. The balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [2]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [2]. 3. Industry Overview Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices fluctuated [2]. - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices rebounded [2]. Mid - stream - **Chemical Industry**: The operating rates of urea and PTA recovered, while the operating rates of PX and polyester remained stable [3]. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities stopped falling but were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4]. 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 13, the credit spreads of various industries showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 54.16 last week to 49.63 this week, and the credit spread of the mining industry decreased from 33.69 last week to 30.03 this week [51]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 11, the prices of various industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2351.4 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%, and the spot price of palm oil was 8944.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [52].