Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "shockingly weak" [3] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic strong policy expectations pulse boost low - valued commodity prices, causing significant disturbances to the market. Due to holiday restocking, steel supply and demand improved this week with continuous inventory reduction, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure during the holiday. Considering the seasonal weakening of steel demand later, supply needs to be suppressed to relieve future inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory and raw material cost support [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3301 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - On September 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a 1.34 - million - ton increase from the previous week and a 17.50 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 39.40 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [1][22] Consumption - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous period. Building material consumption increased by 3.4%, and plate consumption increased by 2.5% [1][26] Inventory - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 864.93 million tons, a 9.47 - million - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.1%. The total inventory was 1510.61 million tons, a 9.13 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decrease of 0.6%. The apparent consumption was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous week [1][30] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is "shockingly weak", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

市场分析 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 供需数据变化不大，工业硅多晶硅宽幅震荡运行 工业硅：商品情绪回落，工业硅盘面偏弱运行 价格：9月26日当周，本周工业硅期货高开低走。现货方面，市场供需变化不大，工业硅现货成交价格继续小幅上 涨。据SMM统计。截至9月25日，SMM华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600元/吨，周环比上涨150元/吨，441#硅在9600-9800 元/吨，周环比上涨100元/吨，3303#硅在10500-10600元/吨，周环比上涨100元/吨。 供应：本周供应端变化不大，周度产量持平，根据SMM统计，样本厂家周度产量5.82万吨，环比持平。目前金属 硅总炉数 796 台，本周金属硅开炉数量与上周相比减少 1 台，截至 9月 25 日，中国金属硅开工炉数 310 台，整 体开炉率 38.94%。 需求：下游铝合金方面，整体产能利用率小幅回落，根据百川统计，本周铝板带箔产量 209335 吨，产量较上周减 少。铝棒产量 294525 吨，产量较上周减少约 210 吨。有机硅方面，本周开工率在 71.2%，本周浙江，山东，河 北装置维持降负生产，华东地区另有装置因突发事故进 ...

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 从库存端来看：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为136825吨（上周为137531吨），其中冶炼厂库存为33492吨（上 周为34456吨），下游库存为60893吨（上周为59495吨），其他库存为 42440吨（上周为43580吨），总库存较上周降 低705 吨。库存继续发生转移，下游补库库存增加较多，冶炼厂库存减少。 从利润看：锂矿价格小幅波动，海外矿山挺价意愿不减，报价持续高企，外采原料企业依赖期货套保平衡盈亏， 锂云母原料价格已出现倒挂，回收黑粉原料供应偏紧，采购难度较大，锂辉石精矿价格企稳。自有矿源及盐湖提 锂企业成本优势较显著，仍保持较为稳定的利润空间。 氢氧化锂：根据百川统计数据，本周氢氧化锂产量 5450 吨，较上周产量环比小幅增加。上游锂辉石价格偏高，锂 盐生产企业面临较大的成本压力，部分工厂依然存在成本倒挂现象，从而制约了开工率的提升。此外，目前部分 产线尚处于计划内或计划外检修状态，在多方面因素的共同影响下，氢氧化锂市场的整体供应能力持续偏紧。国 内工业级氢氧化锂市场成交价格在 6.65-7.1 万元/吨之间，均价在 6.875 万元/吨； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The pre - holiday stocking sentiment in the urea market is difficult to sustain, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. Although the transaction volume has improved after prices in Shandong and Henan fell below previous lows, the sustainability is weak. Domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating [1][2] Section Summaries Price and Spread - Urea futures prices: The urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (- 5). Spot prices: The market price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1610 yuan/ton (+ 0), in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1600 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis of urea in Shandong was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), in Henan was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), and in Jiangsu was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 5). Urea production profit was 70.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), and export profit was 1069.6 yuan/ton (- 88.4) [1] Upstream Supply - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (unchanged). The urea production is running at a high level [1][2] Downstream Demand - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (- 3.36%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+ 3.8%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+ 0.5). The domestic demand for urea is weak. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers shows low enthusiasm for purchasing, with sporadic purchases at low prices, and melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory - As of September 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of enterprises was 121.8 million tons (+ 5.3), and the port inventory was 49.6 million tons (- 2.0). The in - factory inventory of urea continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 海外库存矛盾难解 重要数据 2025-09-26沪锌主力合约收盘于21980元/吨，波动0.07%，LME价格收盘于2886.5美元/吨，波动-0.01%。华东地区 现货价格21950元/吨，对主力合约升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化-5元/吨，广东地区现货价格21990元/吨，对主力合约 升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化+10元/吨，天津地区现货价格21950元/吨，对主力合约升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化-5元/ 吨。LME（0-3）升贴水53.93美元/吨，环比变化-5.71美元/吨。 供应：2025-09-26SMM国产锌精矿周度加工费3650元/金属吨，周度环比波动-200 元/吨，进口锌精矿周度加工费指 数115.90美元/干吨，周度环比波动4.65美元/干吨，锌精矿进口盈亏-2123.98元/吨。 消费：镀锌企业开工率55.82%，环比变化-2.23%，压铸锌合金开工率49.73%较上周变化-4.05%，氧化锌企业开工 率58.45%较上周变化+0.34%。 库存：根据SMM统计，截至2025-09-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.04万吨，较上周同期变 ...

化工周报 | 2025-09-28 主产区降雨减缓，原料将回升 市场分析 天然橡胶：下周海内外产区的降雨将逐步减少，预计原料呈现环比回升走势，原料价格有回落预期，天然橡胶成 本端支撑减缓。下周国内处于长假，下游轮胎厂将进入短期检修的状态，且节前工厂的原料集中补库已经告一段 落，需求环比下降。总体供需呈现逐步转向宽松格局，预计库存去化将逐步放缓甚至重新累积。 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁橡胶上游到10月份仍有装置检修，开工率或呈现先升后回落的走势，近两周产量变化有限。但 顺丁橡胶今年总体开工率水平同比仍在高位，供应充裕格局未改。需求端随着下游原料补库结束后，或呈现稳定 状态。临近国庆假期，下游轮胎厂将有短期停产，节后重新恢复。预计后期下游延续旺季特征，顺丁橡胶供需呈 现两旺格局。 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 原料与价差：泰国胶水54.80泰铢/公斤（+0.00），泰国杯胶51.05泰铢/公斤（+0.00），云南胶水14600元/吨（-200）， 海南胶水14500元/吨（+0），RU基差-820元/吨（+0），NR基差836元/吨（-73），BR基差-80元/吨（+15）。 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14650元/吨 ...

氯碱周报 | 2025-09-28 烧碱主力下游继续下调接货价 烧碱：主力下游继续下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 价格方面：截至2025-09-26，烧碱期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2528元/吨（-9）；山东32%液碱基差-28元/吨（+9）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 供应方面：烧碱开工率82.50%，（+0.60%）；烧碱周度产量81.29万吨（+0.60）。 需求方面：主力下游氧化铝开工率85.95%（-0.28%），氧化铝周度产量185.50万吨（-0.60），氧化铝港口库存7.20 （+1.40）；印染华东开工率66.15%（+0.39%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.82%（+0.30%）；白卡纸开工率：82.72%（+0.69%）； 阔叶浆开工率84.70%（+2.50%）。 生产利润方面：截至2025-09-26，山东氯碱综合利润（1吨烧碱+0.8吨液氯）725.78元/吨（+0.00），山东氯碱综合利 润（1吨烧碱+1吨PVC）179.78元/吨（+0.00），山东烧碱单品种利润1508.90元/吨（+0.00），西北氯碱综合利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices have basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, the eleven - week consecutive decline in inventory has ended, and accumulation has begun. The peak season is lackluster, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. With weakening cost support at the raw material end, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis of Nickel - **Price**: This week, the price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 121,380 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 120 yuan/ton from the opening price on Monday. The weekly price fluctuation range was 120,670 - 123,550 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.39%. LME nickel prices slightly declined to 15,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. In the spot market, the latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium over the SHFE 2510 contract remained unchanged from last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area decreased by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [1]. - **Macro**: At the beginning of the week, cautious remarks from Fed officials on the prospect of interest rate cuts strengthened the US dollar, and the unchanged LPR in China reduced market risk appetite. Subsequently, the central bank's liquidity injection and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts warmed up the sentiment in the base metals sector, but the strong US economic data caused a rebound in the US dollar and a retreat of funds [2]. - **Supply**: In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect local mine shipments. In Indonesia, although the supply of nickel ore was loose, there were frequent disturbances. In terms of refined nickel, China's refined nickel output in August 2025 was 36,695 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 29.62% [2]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 37,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.66% and a year - on - year increase of 81.16%. However, the overall increase in consumption was less than that on the supply side [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production methods of electrowon nickel varied. For example, the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel was 117,171 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3.20%, while the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel was 136,583 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 11.20% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons to 29,008 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 230,124 tons, and China's (including bonded areas) refined nickel inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 40,440 tons [3]. Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: Adopt the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - to - long - term - Options: None [4] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel - **Price**: This week, the main stainless steel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 12,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from last week. The spot procurement sentiment was frustrated, and the pre - holiday procurement demand did not appear as expected [4]. - **Macro**: The central bank's liquidity injection boosted market risk appetite, but the Fed's internal differences after the rate cut and the approaching National Day holiday led to a decline in market trading activity [5]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of stainless steel increased month - on - month. The output of the 200 - series increased by 8.97% month - on - month, the 300 - series increased by 2.44% month - on - month, and the 400 - series decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak consumption season effect did not appear. Downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing. Although real - estate sales increased year - on - year, new construction areas decreased year - on - year, and the demand in the automotive retail sector declined [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel ended its continuous rise since July and slightly declined, while the price of high - carbon ferro - chrome slightly increased but lacked further upward momentum [6]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country increased week - on - week, ending the eleven - week consecutive decline [6]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [7]

化工周报 | 2025-09-28 国庆外轮集中到港，EG持货意愿偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 价格价差：本周乙二醇内盘整体弱势，周中由于需求边际好转有所反弹，但整体买气偏弱，临近假期市场成交有 所缩量现货基差走低。周初乙二醇盘面弱势整理，部分存合约缺口的贸易商参与补货，但预期国庆假期内外轮到 货较多，加拿大以及沙特大船将集中抵港补充货源，预计节后乙二醇港口库存将呈现明显增量，节前贸易商持货 意向较差，场内现货基差快速走低，乙二醇现货基差低位成交至01合约升水56-60元/吨附近。 供应：中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在73.08%（环比上周-1.85%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇 开工负荷在74.36%（环比上周-5.02%）。本周随着合成气制装置检修兑现，EG总负荷回落，但整体国内总负荷依然 处在高位。 需求：江浙织机负荷70.0%（环比上周+4.0%），江浙加弹负荷81.0%（环比上周+3.0%），聚酯开工率90.30%（环比 上周-1.10%），直纺长丝负荷93.50%（环比上周-0.40%）。POY库存天数13.8天（环比上周-7.9天）、FDY库存天数15.7 天（环比上周-7.0天）、D ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [1][4][8] Core Viewpoints - The pressure on the futures market is gradually increasing as various oilseeds are coming onto the market [1] - For soybeans, new season soybeans in the Northeast are gradually being listed, and supply is expected to increase. Currently, downstream demand is not fully released [2][3] - For peanuts, peanuts in various regions are gradually being listed, and supply pressure will continue to be released. Short - term demand may weaken [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2511 this week was 3935 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan, or 0.8% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans in various regions decreased compared to last week [1] Soybean Supply and Demand - Arrival forecast: In September 2025, the total arrival of Brazilian, Argentine and US soybeans in China is expected to be 10.14 million tons. New season soybeans in the Northeast are sporadically listed, and large - scale listing is expected at the end of the month. Currently, supply pressure is not obvious, and downstream demand is not fully released [2][3] Market Analysis - New season soybeans in the Northeast are gradually being listed, and supply is expected to increase during the National Day holiday [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] Peanut Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract this week was 7798 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan, or 0.5% [4] - Spot: The spot basis in various regions showed different degrees of increase [4] Peanut Supply and Demand - As of September 25, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 10,850 tons compared to last week. The arrival volume of oil mills increased, and the trading volume of the commodity rice market was weak [5][6] Market Analysis - As of September 25, the average price of national common peanuts increased by 0.08 yuan/jin week - on - week, or 1.15%. Peanuts in various regions are gradually being listed, and supply pressure will continue to be released. Short - term demand may weaken [7] Strategy - The investment strategy for peanuts is neutral [8]