油料日报 | 2025-07-10 无 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4111.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.17%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+189，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，基准期约收低0.3%，因为美国的贸易政策令 人担忧，中西部地区天气条件良好。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌2.75美分到10.25美分不等，其中7月期约下跌7.50美 分，报收1024.25美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌10.25美分，报收1021.25美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌3.25美分，报收1017.50 美分/蒲式耳。7月19日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江 双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等 蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/ ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 天然橡胶社会库存持稳 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14045元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨。NR主力合约12095元/吨，较前一日变动+25 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13880元/吨， 较前一日变动+30元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11250元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 QinRex掌握的最新预估数据显示，2025年泰国橡胶产量料增加2%至489万吨，2024年初步数据为480万吨。其中， 北部地区增2.9%至29.9万吨；东北地区增1.3%至142万吨；中部地区增0.9%至40.2万吨；南部地区增2.4%至278万吨。 1-5月，越南出口混合橡胶合计34.1万吨，较去年的31.1万吨同比增加10%。其中，SVR3L混合出口8.1万吨，同比 增 ...

原油日报 | 2025-07-10 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨5美分，收于每桶68.38美元，涨幅为0.07%；9月交货的伦敦布 伦特原油期货价格上涨4美分，收于每桶70.19美元，涨幅为0.06%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.85%，报520元/桶。 2、阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至7月7日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为2068.5万桶， 比一周前增加了15.29万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加63.7万桶至812.4万桶，中质馏分油库存减少41.6万桶至230.6 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加130.8万桶至1025.5万桶。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国财政部网站宣布对伊朗实施额外制裁。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、受特朗普关税政策影响，巴西雷亚尔跌幅扩大，下跌1.6%。（来源：Bloomberg） 5、美国至7月4日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 46.4万桶，前值-149.3万桶。当周EIA原油库存 707万桶，预 期-207.1万桶，前值384.5万桶。当周EIA战略石油储备库存 23.8万桶，前值23.9万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 6、 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 弱需求叠加新装置预期，PTA基差快速走弱 市场要闻与数据 需求方面，聚酯开工率90.2%（环比-1.2%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但 实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方面，华润6.22检修20%已执行，万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修，涉及产能170万吨，7月 聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%，关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面，现货生产利润262元/吨（环比+36元/吨）。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高，PF自身基本面尚可，但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限，大多刚需采购为主，，但需求走弱预期，关注成本端支撑。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费405元/吨(环比变动+35元/吨)，随着价格下跌，市场贸易商和下游客户补仓动作有所增多。 基本面方面，逸盛和万凯检修逐步兑现中，预计瓶片负荷将进一步下滑。短期而言，在减产逐步兑现下瓶片加工 费预计会有所修复，但上方空间有限. 策略 弱需求叠加新装置预期，PTA基差快速走弱，市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月投产。 市场分析 成本端 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 周度库存与产量小幅增长，需注意减仓引发波动 市场分析 2025年7月9日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63860元/吨，收于64400元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨0.16%。当 日成交量为350125手，持仓量为326895手，较前一交易日减少11139手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1100 元/吨。所有合约总持仓585066手，较前一交易日减少14648手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少258157手，成 交量426987，整体投机度为0.71。当日碳酸锂仓单13281手，较上个交易日增加626手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月9日电池级碳酸锂报价6.24-6.42万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.12-6.22万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨。从市场成交情况来看，下游材料厂暂未有明 确备库计划。需求增量主要以长协加量或客供模式，现货贸易市场成交寥寥。但部分下游企业的刚性采购需求仍 对市场价格形成支撑，推动成交价格重心持续上移。后续来看，在供需格局整体宽松的背景下，价格或维持低位 震荡走势 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The passing of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US marks a shift from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" phase in the first half of the year to a policy phase of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten." In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has reignited market inflation trading [3]. - The inflation trading this round is not smooth. Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency, while in China, it is the supply - side. Further details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. - Attention should be paid to corresponding commodity sectors. Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, a Politburo meeting in China is awaited. In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the CPI turned positive year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 0.7% year - on - year, driven by industrial consumer goods. The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points [2]. - Since July, policies to address low - price and disorderly competition in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. The low base of PPI in the second half of 2024 may boost the year - on - year PPI reading in the second half of this year [2]. - The US will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea starting from August 1. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US Commerce Secretary plans to talk with China in early August [2]. Macro - inflation Trading - The "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US may increase the US government's debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade, leading to a shift in US policies. In China, the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting has re - heated market inflation trading [3]. - Overseas, the US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low. However, the Fed's path to restarting easing is not smooth, and although the "Big Beautiful" bill has passed, Treasury bond issuance will still absorb market liquidity [3]. - In China, the core of inflation trading is on the supply - side. The 2025 Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is different from the 2015 one, and more details of production reduction policies are needed to determine the main line of inflation trading [3]. Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations [4]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. In the energy sector, the short - term geopolitical premium has ended, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [4]. - The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 (previously $66). The price of agricultural products has limited fluctuation in the short term due to the absence of weather disturbances [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Chinese government supports enterprises in stabilizing employment positions, including expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment, increasing the proportion of unemployment insurance refunds for enterprises, and allowing enterprises in difficulty to apply for deferred payment of social insurance premiums [7]. - In June, China's CPI turned positive year - on - year after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened in June, but prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery [7]. - Trump has determined that tariffs will be implemented on August 1, 2025. The US and Japan will continue tariff negotiations, and the EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1. The US plans to talk with China in early August [2][7]. - COMEX copper futures maintained a 9.6% increase, and Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The investigation of the pharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors will be completed by the end of the month [7]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in June dropped from 3.2% to 3.0%, a five - month low, and the three - year inflation expectation remained stable at 3% [7]. - US API crude oil inventories increased by more than 700,000 barrels last week. The EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to be $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026 [7]. - Trump has approved the shipment of more defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia. He is also considering supporting a new bill for severe sanctions against Russia [7][8].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-10 走货压力略大，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14265元/吨，较前交易日变动-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.07%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格15.01元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+745，较前交易日变动-30；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1035，较前交易日变动+10；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.38元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH09+115，较前交易日变动+20。 据农业农村部监测， 据农业农村部监测，7月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.90，比昨天上升0.16个点，"菜篮 子"产品批发价格指数为112.98，比昨天上升0.19个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.53元/公斤，比昨天 上升0.1%；牛肉63.44元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%；羊肉59.55元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；鸡蛋7.02元/公斤，比昨天 上升1.0%；白条鸡17.02元/公斤，比昨天上升0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the domestic cotton price is supported in the short - term but restricted in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, and the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [5] - The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand, and the price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 6, the budding rate was 48%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; the bolling rate was 14%, 4 percentage points slower than last year; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 7 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year. The 25/26 global cotton market is in a loose supply pattern. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate following the macro - market sentiment [2] - Domestic: The cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand is weak, restricting the upward space [2] Strategy - Adopt the idea of shorting far - month contracts on rallies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] - Forecast: The estimated sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June in Brazil's central - southern region was 44.24 million tons, down 9.7% year - on - year; the sugar production was 2.95 million tons, down 9.8% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar: The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing the price in the long - term. There is a possibility of a short - term rebound [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level. But the import profit is high, and the import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space [5] Strategy - Expect a range - bound and weak - oscillating pattern in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,106 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with sporadic fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import volume increased in the first half of 2025, and the domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of the year. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure exists [6] - Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the global and domestic pulp demand is weak, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [6] Strategy - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LPG market is to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the crude oil price showed a strong trend this week, it had limited impact on the LPG market. The external market only rose slightly, while the PG futures market maintained a weak and volatile trend, lacking market drivers [1] - In the spot market, prices in the Northeast region increased to catch up, while prices in other regions remained stable. Downstream buyers purchased based on rigid demand, and the market atmosphere was average, lacking positive stimuli [1] - In terms of supply, overseas supply remained abundant due to OPEC's production increase and high exports from the United States. Domestically, the commercial supply of LPG increased, resulting in sufficient overall supply [1] - In terms of demand, the civil use of LPG was in the off - season, with continuously low demand. In the deep - processing sector, the operating rate of PDH decreased, and there was no driving force for demand improvement [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 9th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4160 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4460 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4380 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4570 - 4740 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4050 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4570 - 4720 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 571 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars/ton) and 549 US dollars/ton (up 12 US dollars/ton) respectively. In RMB terms, propane was 4497 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton), and butane was 4324 yuan/ton (up 95 yuan/ton) [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 574 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton) and 549 US dollars/ton (up 7 US dollars/ton) respectively. In RMB terms, propane was 4521 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and butane was 4324 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan/ton) [1] Strategy - Unilateral trading strategy: weak and volatile; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies: none [2]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-10 裕龙石化三线检修，检修损失量增加 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7278元/吨（+33），PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（+33），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-98元/吨（-33），LL 华东基差为-8元/吨（-33）， PP华东基差为42元/吨（-33）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为94.8元/吨（-71.4），PP油制生产利润为-295.2元/吨（-71.4），PDH制PP生产利润 为250.4元/吨（-49.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为-634.8元/吨（-10.3），PP出口利润为29.5美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60 ...