1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions, with a significant increase in overall inventory. The price is currently in high - level oscillation, but there is a downward risk once the negotiation results are out [3]. - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both rising, and the inventory continues to increase. Coke is expected to maintain an oscillatory operation in the short term, and the supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose [5][6]. - The Indonesian reduction in coal supply has led to a steady increase in port coal prices. The thermal coal price is oscillating strongly in the short term, and the long - term supply pattern remains loose [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market rose and then fell yesterday. The spot market was weak, with a national building material turnover of 83,800 tons. This week, rebar production increased and inventory accumulated, while consumption declined; hot - rolled coil production increased but inventory decreased, and consumption also dropped [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are currently no contradictions in the steel supply - demand fundamentals. Supply has recovered month - on - month, consumption has declined, and inventory shows seasonal accumulation. The futures market reflects long - term expectations, while the spot market is relatively rational. The cost is generally stable, and enterprises maintain certain profits. Future supply is expected to continue to recover, and the height of inventory accumulation will determine the spring market [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were weaker, and the Platts Index was slightly adjusted downwards. This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, port inventory increased significantly, steel mills replenished inventory slightly, and the amount of stranded cargoes in ports increased [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is intensifying, with a large increase in overall inventory and a slight improvement in downstream replenishment willingness. Due to the locked - in liquidity of some port supplies and uncertainties in long - term actual supply, the market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices. Once the negotiation results are out, the supply - demand contradiction will be exposed, and the price will face a downward risk. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain high - level oscillation with future steel mill resumption and replenishment [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. The coke market was stable, and the expectation of further price reduction weakened significantly. The sentiment in the coking coal market improved, and some terminal procurement plans were advanced. The price of some Mongolian 5 coking coal spot has risen to 1,010 - 1,035 yuan/ton. This week, coking coal supply recovered, inventory continued to increase, and demand improved due to the resumption of hot metal production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the New Year's Day, with the resumption of blast furnaces and the winter storage replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival, the demand for coke is expected to improve. In the short term, coke will maintain an oscillatory operation benefiting from the rise in raw coal prices. The supply - demand of coking coal remains relatively loose. Although the rigid demand for coking coal has improved with the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the supply of coking coal has recovered relatively quickly, and the inventory accumulation trend has not been alleviated. The change in production - capacity increase in the origin needs further verification [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, or options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices accelerated to rise. Chemical customers had good rigid demand, high - calorie coal had good sales, but power plant demand was weak, and traders were cautious in procurement. In ports, the inventory of northern ports decreased rapidly recently, and due to the inverted shipping cost, upstream suppliers were less willing to sell at low prices. Indonesia reduced its coal production quota for 2026 and will retroactively collect this year's tariffs [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The daily consumption of thermal coal has improved, and the supply in the production area is gradually recovering. The coal price is oscillating strongly. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - thermal coal [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The glass and soda ash markets show divergent trends due to supply disturbances. The double - silicon market has cooled in sentiment, waiting for major steel tenders [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market fluctuated upward yesterday. Some manufacturers raised prices, and spot - futures traders gradually entered the market, providing short - term support for prices. This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 151,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the manufacturer inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market fluctuated downward yesterday, and downstream demand for spot purchases was limited. This week, the soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, and the inventory was 1.5727 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the purchase by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and the market has expectations for the peak season after the Spring Festival. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [1] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market has increased, with supply rebounding month - on - month and demand weakening, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Considering the upcoming release of new production capacity and the expected increase in float glass cold - repair, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Continued attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate - No strategies are provided for inter - period and inter - commodity trading [2] Double - Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The market trading returned to rationality yesterday, and the bullish sentiment declined. The silicon manganese futures prices dropped. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The silicon ferrosilicon market was weak yesterday. As the steel tenders in January were in progress, traders were actively purchasing, and overall sales were good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,350 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese are not favorable. The output is still higher than the demand, and the inventory has increased significantly. The resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for silicon manganese. Currently, the port inventory of manganese ore is low, providing a bottom support for silicon manganese prices. Silicon manganese is expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and changes in output [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions in the silicon ferrosilicon market have been alleviated compared to the previous period. Enterprises have actively reduced production, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. Considering the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the rigid demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. Due to the planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is expected to increase. Silicon ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction, cost changes, and regional policies [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Expected to fluctuate - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view is that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate in a narrow range. Currently, the economic expectation difference favors the RMB, the Sino-US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, with the weakening of the US dollar and the USD/RMB exchange rate falling below 7.0, the exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue, and the 6.95 level will be repeatedly tested [31][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - Price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/RMB option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end [4] - The negative adjustment range of the counter - cyclical factor has significantly narrowed, and the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has widened [8] 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The central bank's key work in 2026 includes flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, preventing exchange rate over - adjustment risks, and continuing to optimize the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanism arrangements [27] 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro - Economy - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on December 31 was 872.8 billion (previous value: 801.5 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion, a decrease of 65.6 billion. The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [15] - The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but the 11 - month CPI increase was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The economic expectation has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [17] - The Chinese economy has a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between the fundamentals and sentiment has widened [21] 3.2.2 Core Charts - In the US, employment authority has declined, inflation in November supported subsequent interest rate cuts, and the economic expectation has been revised upwards [17] 3.2.3 Economic - In the US in December, imports, new orders, and inventory made negative contributions, while output and prices made positive contributions [18] 3.2.4 Macro - Economy (China) - China's manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, rising 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and rising to the expansion range for the first time since April, indicating an improvement in manufacturing production and operation activities. Production and demand have rebounded simultaneously, and domestic demand is stronger than external demand [26] 3.2.5 Overall View - The RMB exchange rate will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to this week's non - farm employment data. If employment continues to cool down, the stronger RMB pattern is expected to continue [31] 3.2.6 Macro - Economy (2026 Scenario Deduction) - Throughout 2026, there will be multiple important time points related to policy, inventory cycles, etc., including Fed meetings, government work reports, and US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economic and policy environment [34]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.38% at RMB 2,437 per ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 2.29% at RMB 2,860 per ton [1] - The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has limited direct impact on the crude oil market, and the medium- and long-term impact is negative. Oil prices remain in a weak oscillation, providing limited impetus for FU and LU [2] - The current fundamentals of the fuel oil market have both bullish and bearish factors, with limited overall contradictions. The crack spread and premium of high-sulfur fuel oil have declined, leading to a marginal improvement in refinery demand. China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports have increased recently, but the spot market remains relatively loose [2] - Potential upside risks come from the geopolitical level. If the supply disruption of Venezuelan oil persists, domestic refineries may increase their fuel oil procurement demand. In addition, if the supply in Iran is affected by geopolitical tensions, the impact on the high-sulfur fuel oil market will be more direct [2] - In the low-sulfur fuel oil market, due to changes in the maintenance status of facilities (Azul and Dangote), there is an expectation of increased supply in Kuwait and Nigeria. According to shipping data, Kuwait's low-sulfur fuel oil shipments in January are expected to reach 330,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 310,000 tons. Meanwhile, Nigeria's shipments in January are expected to reach 140,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons [2] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral to slightly bearish - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral to slightly bearish - Cross-variety: No strategy - Cross-period: Go long on the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) - Spot-future: No strategy - Options: No strategy [3] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [4]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report reviews the historical evolution and pricing logic iteration of the copper-aluminum ratio. "Dr. Copper" is more tied to global liquidity, geopolitical risks, and currency credit strength, while aluminum has both financial and industrial attributes [3]. - After 2023, in the context of the "de-dollarization" trend and rising concerns about currency credit, the resource allocation attribute of copper has been further strengthened. In 2026, a copper-aluminum ratio above 4 will become the norm and may reach new highs [4]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper-aluminum ratio is affected by various factors such as global economic events, geopolitical risks, and macro - monetary policies. Different economic periods have different impacts on the supply and demand of copper and aluminum, thus affecting the ratio [11][16][20]. - In 2026, both macro and micro factors will promote the further strengthening of the copper-aluminum ratio. Geopolitical risks may disrupt copper supply, and the synchronous monetary easing in China and the US will also support the rise of the ratio [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1997 - 2002: Asian Financial Crisis - During the Asian financial crisis, the copper-aluminum ratio dropped from 1.6 - 1.7 to below 1.1. The crisis amplified the demand structural differences between copper and aluminum. Fiscal austerity policies cut copper consumption, and copper supply was more affected by exchange - rate shocks [11]. 2002 - 2008: China's Accession to the WTO - After China joined the WTO in 2001, the financial attribute of copper increased rapidly. The copper-aluminum ratio rose from about 1.1 to 3.6. China's economic development drove the demand for commodities, and the supply and cost differences between copper and aluminum also contributed to the ratio change [12][14]. 2009 - 2011: Post - Subprime Crisis Bailout - After the subprime crisis, the copper-aluminum ratio first declined and then rose. Due to global monetary easing policies, the ratio exceeded 4 for the first time in 2011. Supply shortages in copper and over - supply concerns in aluminum, along with China's large - scale infrastructure investment, affected the ratio [16]. 2011 - 2016: European Debt Crisis and China's Economic Slowdown - The European debt crisis and China's economic transformation led to a decline in the copper-aluminum ratio. Both copper and aluminum faced supply - surplus situations, and the "Dr. Copper" was more sensitive to the economic downturn [18]. 2016 - 2021: New Energy Transition + Public Health Safety Disturbance - Trump's victory in 2016 and subsequent market expectations led to an increase in the copper-aluminum ratio. The COVID - 19 pandemic and global monetary easing policies made the ratio exceed 4 again. The new energy transition created a situation of strong demand for both copper and aluminum [20]. 2021 - 2025: Consumption Structural Reform and Liquidity Easing after the Energy Crisis - The energy crisis in 2021 led to a decline in the copper-aluminum ratio. Subsequently, the demand for both copper and aluminum increased, but the supply shortage of copper became more prominent. In 2025, the ratio exceeded 4 again due to various factors [22][23]. Copper - Aluminum Ratio Outlook: "Monroe Doctrine" - Induced Resource Concerns - The conflict between the US and Venezuela may affect copper supply in South America. In 2025, South American copper production accounts for a significant proportion of the global total. However, the impact on the aluminum market is expected to be small. In 2026, both fundamental and macro factors will support the further increase of the copper-aluminum ratio [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.4844 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.5256 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.9431 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.0828 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.6736 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0533 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.2043 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.3391 million contracts [1] - The detailed breakdown of call and put trading volumes and total trading volumes for various index ETF options on the same day is as follows: for SSE 50 ETF options, call volume was 0.6178 million contracts, put volume was 0.4505 million contracts, and total volume was 1.0683 million contracts; for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), call volume was 0.6514 million contracts, put volume was 0.4497 million contracts, and total volume was 1.1011 million contracts; for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), call volume was 0.9397 million contracts, put volume was 0.6809 million contracts, and total volume was 1.6205 million contracts; for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, call volume was 0.0294 million contracts, put volume was 0.0188 million contracts, and total volume was 0.0482 million contracts; for ChiNext ETF options, call volume was 0.9337 million contracts, put volume was 0.7399 million contracts, and total volume was 1.6736 million contracts; for SSE 50 index options, call volume was 0.0146 million contracts, put volume was 0.0387 million contracts, and total volume was 0.0533 million contracts; for CSI 300 index options, call volume was 0.0923 million contracts, put volume was 0.0523 million contracts, and total volume was 0.1512 million contracts; for CSI 1000 index options, call volume was 0.2031 million contracts, put volume was 0.1360 million contracts, and total volume was 0.3391 million contracts [19] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.54, with a month - on - month change of +0.18; the open interest PCR was reported at 1.01, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06; for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.48, with a month - on - month change of +0.01; the open interest PCR was 1.05, with a month - on - month change of - 0.09; for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.37, with a month - on - month change of +0.02; the open interest PCR was 1.30, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02; for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.39, with a month - on - month change of +0.14; the open interest PCR was 1.46, with a month - on - month change of - 0.14; for ChiNext ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.52, with a month - on - month change of +0.02; the open interest PCR was 1.16, with a month - on - month change of +0.00; for SSE 50 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.23, with a month - on - month change of +0.00; the open interest PCR was 0.76, with a month - on - month change of +0.00; for CSI 300 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.33, with a month - on - month change of +0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.83, with a month - on - month change of +0.01; for CSI 1000 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.36, with a month - on - month change of +0.01; the open interest PCR was 1.12, with a month - on - month change of +0.02 [2][33] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 17.88%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.71%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 18.28%, with a month - on - month change of +0.11%; the VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 23.02%, with a month - on - month change of +0.18%; the VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 21.43%, with a month - on - month change of +0.59%; the VIX of ChiNext ETF options was 27.75%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.41%; the VIX of SSE 50 index options was 18.19%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.28%; the VIX of CSI 300 index options was 17.99%, with a month - on - month change of +0.14%; the VIX of CSI 1000 index options was 21.63%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.66% [3][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil data in Southeast Asia has been gradually released, showing that the palm oil production in Southeast Asia in 2025 remained at a relatively high level, which met market expectations, and the market fluctuated [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,562 yuan/ton, a change of +62 yuan or +0.73% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 7,958 yuan/ton, a change of +46 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,095 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan or -0.38% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P05 - 62 yuan, a change of -62 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,330 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 372 yuan, a change of -26 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.30%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 755 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [1] Market News Palm Oil Production Forecast - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons. The annual palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [2] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. The production in November dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decline from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% increase year - on - year [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons, the same as the previous update [2] Market Conditions - As of the mid - day break, the March palm oil futures on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) rose 0.4% to 4,004 ringgit/ton, and once rose 0.9% to 4,024 ringgit/ton during the session. CBOT March soybean oil rose 0.2% to 49.51 cents/pound. The palm oil 2605 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.2% to 8,518 yuan/ton, and the May soybean oil rose 0.4% to 7,942 yuan/ton [2] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 5 increased by 31% month - on - month. The December inventory may have climbed for the 10th consecutive month, reaching a 7 - year high of 2.99 million tons [2] Outlook - Despite the surge in exports at the beginning of January and the expected significant decline in production, with the inventory approaching 3 million tons and weak demand, palm oil is difficult to recover significantly. The expected strengthening of the ringgit in the middle of the year and the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans are negative factors for palm oil demand [2]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-08 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2811元/吨，较前日变动+35元/吨，幅度+1.26%；菜粕2605合约2419元/吨，较前 日变动+29元/吨，幅度+1.21%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3140元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差 M05+329，较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3110元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差M05+299，较前日变动 +5；广东地区豆粕现货价格3140元/吨，较前日变动跌+30元/吨，现货基差M05+329，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜 粕现货价格2620元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM05+201，较前日变动-9。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司作物进展报告称，截止2026年1月3日，巴西2025/26年度大豆播种进度98.2%， 高于一周前的97.9%和五年同期均值97.6%，但低于去年同期的98.5%；收获进度0.1%，低于去年同期的0.2%和五 年同期均值0.6%。 市场分析 当前下游油厂大豆和豆粕库存均维持高位，但由于偏高的进口成本和一季度偏少的到港，使得市场对于近月合约 的预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term market sentiment. PE and PP prices have continued to rebound, but the improvement in their supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. PE is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with inventory reduction pressure. PP has a supply reduction expectation, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,642 yuan/ton (+63), PP main contract at 6,486 yuan/ton (+63). LL North China spot was 6,500 yuan/ton (+130), LL East China spot at 6,530 yuan/ton (+40), PP East China spot at 6,250 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 142 yuan/ton (+67), LL East China basis - 112 yuan/ton (-23), PP East China basis - 236 yuan/ton (-33) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP operating rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 174.8 yuan/ton (+90.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 335.2 yuan/ton (+90.8), PDH - made PP production profit was - 815.4 yuan/ton (-23.8) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was 200.9 yuan/ton (+11.8), PP import profit was - 279.2 yuan/ton (+31.8), PP export profit was - 31.5 US dollars/ton (-4.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term sentiment. However, the improvement in PE's supply - demand fundamentals is limited. The supply pressure still exists due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand is weak as it is in the off - season. The pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand continues, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [3]. - **PP**: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has led to a warmer market sentiment. The price has continued to rebound due to supply reduction expectation and cost support. The supply is expected to decrease due to more temporary maintenance, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are recommended to be on the sidelines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, but the geopolitical situation has intensified cost - side disturbances. The price continues to be relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stabilizing growth and policy easing. The stock market rally, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the stable LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and increased global trade uncertainty have all influenced the bond market. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) had a -0.10% month - on - month change and a 0.70% year - on - year increase; PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a -2.20% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, down 0.20% (-2.44%); Manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, up 0.90% (+1.83%) [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14 (+0.14%); USD/CNY (off - shore) was 6.9844, up 0.008 (+0.12%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.45, up 0.03 (+1.97%); DR007 was 1.46, up 0.03 (+2.09%); R007 was 1.51, with no change (-0.31%); AAA - rated 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.60, up 0.01 (+0.34%); 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.34%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures such as the closing price trend of Treasury futures' main continuous contracts, the price change rates of various Treasury futures varieties, etc. [12][19][23]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and local government bond issuance [26][31]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures such as the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [35][42]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [39][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [48][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [53][58]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures No specific text - based summary information provided, only references to figures like the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury futures' main contract and the Treasury bond's maturity yield [59][65]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates, the prices of Treasury futures are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short positions can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].