FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 TMT板块反弹 市场分析 青年失业率较高。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据，10月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇16-24岁劳动力失业率为17.3%， 25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.2%，30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.8%。对外关系方面，外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松同日本外务 省亚大局局长金井正彰举行磋商，磋商结束后，刘劲松回应相关问题时表示对磋商结果不满意，并称双方会面时 气氛严肃。海外方面，ADP就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。另 外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅上升至195.7 万人。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走低，沪指跌0.81%收于3939.81点，创业板指跌1.16%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，仅传媒、计算机、电子、食品饮料收红，煤炭、电力设备、钢铁、有色金属行业跌幅居前。当日 沪深两市成交额保持在1.9万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌1.21%报22432.85点。 IF继续增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IF、IC、IM基差回升。成交 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-19 煤价大幅下跌，EG基差继续走弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3907元/吨（较前一交易日变动-31元/吨，幅度-0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3955元/吨（较前一交易日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.50%），EG华东现货基差30元/吨（环比-12元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-974 元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升。需求端，近期随着降温，聚酯下游适 度好转，但聚酯负荷提升有 ...

期货研究报告|外汇专题报告 2025-11-19 结售汇降温，市场静待再定价 研究院 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 联系人 朱思谋 0755-23887993 zhusimou@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03142856 研究员 蔡劭立 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 10 月结售汇顺差明显回落，企业在即期与远期端的结汇、购汇及套保安排均较上月更 为平缓。涉外收付款经常项目顺差升至年内高位，货物贸易仍是主要贡献项，资本与 金融项目的净流出压力同步减轻。美元兑人民币在关键数据延后发布背景下维持再定 价走势，短期预计继续围绕 7.10 一线震荡。 ■ 数据核心看点 10 月结售汇顺差明显收窄。当月银行结售汇顺差从 510.23 亿美元下降至 176.79 亿 美元，代客顺差收窄至 214.26 亿美元，银行自身逆差扩大至 -37.48 亿美元，反映企 业与居民部门的结售汇行为与上月相比更为平稳。 企业在即期与远期端的结售汇和套保节奏均有所调整。即期成交量升至 428.96 亿美 元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 现货成交较少，期货盘面大幅减仓 市场分析 2025-11-18，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于96200元/吨，收于93520元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.93%。当日成 交量为1487724手，持仓量为484357手，前一交易日持仓量562954手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-7160元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单26611手，较上个交易日变化-342手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价84800-90000元/吨，较前一交易日变化1250元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价84550-85550元/吨，较前一交易日变化1250元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1140美元/吨，较前一日变化60美元/吨。据SMM 数据，市场情绪高涨，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，仅维持刚需采购，市场成交较少。目前，上下游企业正在就 明年的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。供应端来看，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高位运行，其中 锂辉石端与盐湖端开工率均维持在60%以上，成为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂产量可以维持10月的生产量级， 环比大致持平。需求方面，动力市场 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the mid - stream digital transformation progress, and also provides an overview of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries including price and activity changes, along with relevant policies in production and service industries [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Information - In the production industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to build about 200 high - standard digital parks by 2027, achieving full digital transformation of above - scale industrial enterprises in the park, full coverage of industrial Internet applications, 100% digital transformation coverage of above - scale industrial enterprises, 100% dual - gigabit network coverage, and effective deployment and application of computing power infrastructure [1] - In the service industry, 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption in Beijing, including increasing bond market financing support, promoting the issuance of bonds by service - consumption enterprises, and expanding consumer credit [1] Upstream Industry - Black: Glass prices declined slightly [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [3] - Real estate: The building materials price index rose slightly [3] Mid - stream Industry - Chemical: PX operation remained at a high level, while PTA operation declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants increased slightly [3] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operation declined [3] Downstream Industry - Real estate: Seasonal decline in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Service: International flight frequencies decreased slightly [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agriculture: Corn price was 2161.4 yuan/ton with a 0.40% year - on - year increase; egg price was 6.5 yuan/kg with a 4.50% increase; palm oil price was 8700.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change; cotton price was 14848.8 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; pork average wholesale price was 17.9 yuan/kg with a - 0.94% change; copper price was 86020.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% change; zinc price was 22304.0 yuan/ton with a - 1.52% change [34] - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum price was 21473.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change; nickel price was 117383.3 yuan/ton with a - 2.92% change; another aluminum price was 17188.8 yuan/ton with a - 1.36% change [34] - Black metals: Steel price was 3161.3 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase; iron ore price was 805.2 yuan/ton with a 1.71% increase; wire rod price was 3320.0 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase; glass price was 13.7 yuan/square meter with a - 2.14% change [34] - Non - metals: Natural rubber price was 14891.7 yuan/ton with a 0.85% increase; China Plastic City price index was 768.1 with a - 0.51% change [34] - Energy: WTI crude oil price had a - 0.37% change; Brent crude oil price was 64.2 dollars/barrel with a 0.22% increase; liquefied natural gas price was 4182.0 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change; coal price was 832.0 yuan/ton with no change [34] - Chemical: PTA price was 4628.8 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change; polyethylene price was 7005.0 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase; urea price was 1630.0 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; soda ash price was 1218.6 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase [34] - Real estate: The national cement price index was 137.3 with a 0.51% increase; the building materials composite index was 113.8 with a 1.49% increase; the national concrete price index was 90.8 with a - 0.07% change [34]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, with steel prices oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of building materials have improved, while strip products need to reduce production to resolve contradictions. The short - term price will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support should be observed [1]. - The supply - demand of iron ore has weakened marginally, and ore prices will oscillate widely. Although there is a downward pressure on prices due to supply and demand, the limited arrival volume restricts the downward space, and future iron - water production and downstream inventory changes should be noted [3]. - The pressure of double - coking warehouse receipts is emerging, and the prices will oscillate weakly. The supply pressure of coking coal has been relieved, and the demand for coke needs attention due to factors such as steel mill profits and power - coal price fluctuations [4]. - The supply of thermal coal in the production area is tight, and coal prices have risen again. In the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly, and in the long - term, overall consumption and supply should be monitored [6]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures oscillated weakly, and spot trading was average with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Building material production and sales decreased, and inventory continued to decline, while strip products faced high - inventory and high - production problems [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures oscillated strongly, and spot prices fluctuated slightly with less trading volume. The supply is high, inventory is increasing, and there is a seasonal weakening expectation for iron - water. However, the limited arrival volume restricts the downward space of prices [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Double - Coking - **Market Analysis**: Double - coking futures oscillated weakly, with a significant decline in the coking - coal main contract. The supply of coking coal has improved, and the demand for coke is affected by steel mill profits and other factors [4]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: Due to factors such as safety inspections in production areas, coal prices have risen by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. There are different views on the port market, and the advantage of imported coal still exists [6]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: In the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly, and in the long - term, overall consumption and supply should be monitored [6].

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-19 港口表现疲软，现实库存压力大 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润563元/吨（+8）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1968元/吨（+8），内蒙北线基差538元/吨（+7），内蒙南线1920元/吨（-40）；山东临沂2140元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差310元/吨（-1）；河南2015元/吨（-5），河南基差185元/吨（-6）；河北2075元/吨（-15），河北基差305元/吨（-16）。 隆众内地工厂库存369250吨（-17160），西北工厂库存205500吨（-27000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单245400吨（+24307）， 西北工厂待发订单116500吨（-8000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2002元/吨（-10），太仓基差-28元/吨（-11），CFR中国234美元/吨（-5），华东进口价差-36元/ 吨（-4），常州甲醇2230元/吨；广东甲醇2010元/吨（-5），广东基差-20元/吨（-6）。隆众港口总库存1543600吨（+56500）， 江苏港口库存836600吨（+45100），浙江 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-19 终端消费疲软，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11535元/吨，较前交易日变动-160.00元/吨，幅度-1.37%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+65，较前交易日变动+160；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+215，较前交易日变动+160；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH01-285，较前交易日变动+170。 据农业农村部监测，11月18日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.41，比昨天下降0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.51，比昨天下降0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.89元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉66.90 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；羊肉62.95元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.35元/公斤，与昨天持平；白条鸡17.57元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.2%。 市场分析 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-19 寒潮影响需求，市场氛围平淡 市场分析 1、11月18日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3032元/吨，较昨日结算价下降11元/吨，跌幅 0.36%；持仓191962手，环比下跌2515手，成交157143手，环比上涨1104手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3700元/吨；山东，3020—3520元/吨；华南，3100—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 沥青盘面维持低位震荡态势，原油成本端表现偏弱，自身基本面缺乏利好刺激，虽有一定底部信号但反弹动力不 足。现货方面，昨日西北以及东北地区沥青现货价格相对稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。随 着国内寒潮来临，沥青刚性需求整体表现欠佳，市场交投氛围平淡，多数区域主营炼厂下调沥青结算价格。目前 来看，沥青市场驱动依然偏弱。 策略 单边：中性，等待市场底部夯实 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-19 现货涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3041元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2601合约2431元/吨，较前日 变动-18元/吨，幅度-0.73%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+9， 较前日变动+2；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-41，较前日变动+2；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-51，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM01+179，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，11月17日，巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西11月前两周出口大豆230.2万吨，日均 出口量为23万吨，较上年11月全月的日均出口量13.4万吨增加71%。 上年11月全月出口量为255.3万吨。11月17日， 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年11月13日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为117.6万吨，此前市 场预估 ...