Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, with strong premium quotes from traders. Although downstream procurement is hesitant due to high prices, rigid demand still exists. The TC of domestic zinc mines has stopped falling, while that of imported mines is still slightly declining. After winter storage, smelters' raw material inventories have increased, but the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting losses of domestic smelters have widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month-on-month. There is a possibility that the output in January may fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the market is optimistic about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited. [4] 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.67/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187,735 lots, and the open interest was 91,603 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,145 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Spot - On January 7, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.60/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,530 yuan/ton and closed at 17,830 yuan/ton, a change of 310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,341 lots, a change of 26,456 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 52,009 lots, a change of 1,009 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,860 yuan/ton and a low of 17,530 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, a 0.23% decline from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 25 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for rigid demand transactions, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Guangdong, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes' discount narrowed to a discount of 300 - 280 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead ex - factory. Due to the continuous rise of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to high prices, and the overall market trading was light [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On January 7, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of January 7, the LME lead inventory was 230,425 tons, a change of - 2,925 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the gold price remains in a high-level oscillation. With central bank gold purchases providing non-speculative demand support, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern in the near term. The Au2602 contract may oscillate between 990 yuan/gram and 1015 yuan/gram [8]. - The silver price has corrected, and it is slightly weaker than gold due to the recovery of risk sentiment. However, the silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18,500 yuan/kilogram and 20,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten-year high, and gold reserves increased for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion month-on-month, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month-on-month [1]. - Overseas, the US "small non-farm" data in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. ADP data indicated that private-sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. In addition, US job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1006.00 yuan/gram and closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.61% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 1002.20 yuan/gram, up 0.33% from the afternoon close [2]. - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,460.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,172,110 lots, and the open interest was 273,460 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,103 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,020 yuan/kilogram, down 1.40% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 7, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.148%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.678%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract on January 7, 2026, long positions decreased by 3,185 lots, and short positions decreased by 980 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 325,966 lots, up 5.79% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 103 lots, and short positions decreased by 7,302 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,244,344 lots, up 12.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - For precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,118 tons, down 236 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.62 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,003.04 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 51.78, up 0.23% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.74, down 4.00% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 63,134 kilograms, up 42.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 823,590 kilograms, down 6.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,130 kilograms [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is influenced by the tense situation in Venezuela and Indonesian policies, with funds flowing into the nickel sector, causing the price of the Shanghai nickel futures contract to hit a new high since June 2024. Although the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, it is expected to remain strong due to favorable policies from Indonesia and attention from profitable funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by the cost transmission of the sharp rise in Shanghai nickel and Indonesian nickel export restrictions. The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 143,500 yuan/ton and closed at 147,720 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,132,256 (+393,922) lots, and the open interest was 132,955 (+1,474) lots. The price hit a new high since June 2024, and the bullish sentiment of funds reached a climax [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has limited resources, and the price is stable with an upward trend. The 1.25 - grade nickel ore tender in the Philippines' Benguet mine was settled at $32.5, up from the previous level. In Indonesia, the first - phase domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the second - phase domestic trade base price is expected to rise by $3 - 5 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and spot trading was cold. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,776 (-612) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 275,634 (+20,088) tons [2]. Strategy - The operation strategy is mainly range trading for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,450 yuan/ton and closed at 14,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 288,456 (+151,355) lots, and the open interest was 112,880 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the cost transmission of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policies, it showed a one - way upward trend and closed at the daily limit. The spot price increased synchronously, but the market was in a state of "high price but few transactions" [4]. - **Spot**: The futures price hit the daily limit, and the spot price increased significantly. The downstream inquiry was active, but the transaction was cautious. Some steel mills suspended orders. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation. The operation strategy is neutral for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-01-08 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润44元/吨（+0元/吨），PS生产利润-306元/吨（+0元/吨），ABS生产利润-1035元/吨（-24 元/吨）。EPS开工率43.64%（-8.92%），PS开工率60.40%（+1.80%），ABS开工率69.90%（+0.50%）。 市场分析 纯苯方面。上游方面，美国把委内瑞拉原油转为合规油供应压制油价，但同时关注美国是否对伊朗军事行动的地 缘支撑。纯苯自身维持深度负基差状态，高库存压力持续，中国到港压力仍存。下游提货淡季表现偏弱，苯乙烯 检修恢复仍慢；CPL开工继续维持同期低位，终端消费偏弱，PA6及锦纶负荷偏低；苯胺开工仍历史低位，冰箱排 产同比走弱拖累；苯酚开工低位有所回升，但PC开工表现仍一般；己二酸开工尚可。而纯苯加工费维持低位背景 下，国内纯苯开工仍维持低位。 纯苯维持深度负基差格局 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-159元/吨（-21）。纯苯港口库存31.80万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费134美元/ 吨（-10美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费125美元/吨（-10美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on January 7, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5][6][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume was 714.879 billion yuan, a change of - 12.73% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1533.753 billion yuan, a change of - 1.29% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 46.55% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the proportion trend of the net holding of the top 20 of each variety in the stock index plate [5][6] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume was 444.794 billion yuan, a change of + 10.13% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 800.752 billion yuan, a change of + 0.24% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 53.60% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the proportion trend of the net holding of the top 20 of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5][6] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metals plate was 1387.83 billion yuan, a change of + 39.49% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 823.199 billion yuan, a change of + 2.87% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 190.62% - The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 1281.751 billion yuan, a change of + 13.47% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 517.06 billion yuan, a change of + 0.82% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 360.09% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the proportion trend of the net holding of the top 20 of each variety in the metal plate [5][6] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume was 644.806 billion yuan, a change of + 34.48% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 457.013 billion yuan, a change of + 2.77% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 134.23% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the proportion trend of the net holding of the top 20 of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [5][6] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume was 360.38 billion yuan, a change of + 34.90% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 591.968 billion yuan, a change of + 4.11% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 59.14% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the proportion trend of the net holding of the top 20 of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [5][6] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume was 357.414 billion yuan, a change of + 82.50% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 325.484 billion yuan, a change of + 8.12% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 115.35% [2] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the proportion trend of the net holding of the top 20 of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][6]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Cross-period: Expand the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross-variety: None [4] Core View - The methanol market is affected by factors such as potential MTO device maintenance, high inventory, and seasonal demand. Attention should be paid to the duration of Iran's winter inspection and the resumption progress of southwest gas-based methanol production [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Cross-period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis and cross-period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions and cross-period spreads between different futures contracts [7][9][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of coal-based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads, etc [24][25][30] 3. Methanol开工, Inventory - The report provides information on methanol port inventory, MTO/P operating rate, and inland factory inventory [2][32][39] 4. Regional Spreads - The report presents regional spreads between different regions, such as the spreads between Shandong North and Northwest, Taicang and Inner Mongolia, etc [2][36][47] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [49][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term volatile and weak oil price, with a medium - term bearish allocation [4] Core Viewpoints - With clearer statements from US officials, Venezuelan crude oil will be controlled by the US in the future. The path for Venezuelan oil to turn from sanctioned oil to compliant oil is becoming clearer. The main trading logic in the market is that US Gulf refineries will absorb Venezuelan oil, squeezing the demand for Canadian heavy oil. Venezuelan oil shipments to China will decline significantly. The overall supply of sensitive oil is abundant, and the net effect after the Maduro incident is a decrease in compliant oil demand and an increase in medium - to - long - term production growth expectations, which is bearish for oil prices in the short and medium term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On January 8, Trump said Venezuela would use funds from the new oil agreement to buy US - made products [1] - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on the 7th declared the US would "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales, aiming to stabilize and increase production. The sales revenue will be deposited in a US - controlled account for the benefit of Venezuelans. He estimated a potential increase of 700,000 barrels per day in the medium - to - short - term [1][2] - Mexican President Cinbaum on the 7th denied sending more oil to Cuba after Maduro's arrest and said Mexico would be an important oil supplier to Cuba [1] - US Attorney General Bundy on the 7th issued a seizure order for the "BELLA 1" oil tanker transporting sanctioned oil [1] - US Secretary of State Rubio outlined a three - stage process in Venezuela: stabilizing the situation, the recovery stage, and the transition stage [1] - White House Press Secretary Levitt said Trump was not afraid to seize sanctioned oil tankers, even if it might strain relations with Russia [1] - After Trump announced Venezuela would "transfer" up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, Canadian crude oil prices in the US Gulf Coast tumbled. The discount of Canadian "Cold Lake" crude oil to WTI increased from $6.80 to $8.50 per barrel, and in Alberta, the discount of heavy crude oil widened from $13.90 to $14.10 per barrel [2] Investment Logic - The future control of Venezuelan oil by the US makes its path from sanctioned to compliant oil clearer. The market expects US Gulf refineries to absorb Venezuelan oil, squeezing Canadian heavy oil demand. Venezuelan oil shipments to China will drop, but overall sensitive oil supply is sufficient, leading to a decrease in compliant oil demand and an increase in medium - to - long - term production expectations, which is bearish for oil prices in the short and medium term [3] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a bearish allocation is recommended in the medium term [4] Risk - Downside risks include the achievement of a peace negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go long on UR05 and short on UR09 when the spread is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas of urea were lifted, trading improved, the futures market fluctuated strongly, driving the spot purchasing sentiment. Spot prices rose slightly. Mainstream producers continued the policy of limited purchases. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January. The off - season storage procurement was in progress. The compound fertilizer sentiment cooled down but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted. Melamine had rigid demand. The in - factory inventory was basically flat and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd boosted the international urea market sentiment. The domestic export quota had no new news and subsequent export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 7, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea was 1750 yuan/ton in Henan (unchanged), 1750 yuan/ton in Shandong (+10), and 1760 yuan/ton in Jiangsu (+10). The small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (- 12), and in Jiangsu was - 30 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 7, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.29% (0.08% change). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 17.20 million tons (- 0.50) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - On January 7, 2026, the urea production profit was 185 yuan/ton (+10) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2, 2026 received 26 suppliers with a total tender volume of 3.62 billion tons. The lowest quotes from Koch were CFR 426.8 dollars/ton for the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton for the west coast, 5 - 8 dollars/ton higher than the previous tender. On January 7, 2026, the urea export profit was 843 yuan/ton (- 21) [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 7, 2026, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.89% (- 3.86%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 47.65% (- 10.42%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 17.20 million tons (- 0.50) [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Price Movement**: The price of EG rebounded due to the increase in coking coal prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,879 yuan/ton (up 41 yuan/ton, or +1.07% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,713 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/ton, or +0.90% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was -139 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$83/ton (up $10/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was -867 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Inventory**: According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Domestically, the syngas - based production load has not decreased significantly, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to over 70%. There is still significant pressure to accumulate inventory from January to February due to high supply and weakening demand. Overseas, after the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease after February. On the demand side, weaving orders have weakened, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has also decreased due to weakening profitability [2]. - **Strategies**: - **Single - side**: Neutral. Although the current price is not high, the downstream hidden inventory has reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. The pressure of new production capacity and inventory accumulation from January to February is still large, limiting the rebound space. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread between EG2603 and EG2605. - **Inter - variety**: None [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,879 yuan/ton (up 41 yuan/ton, or +1.07% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3,713 yuan/ton (up 33 yuan/ton, or +0.90% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was -139 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$83/ton (up $10/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was -867 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan/ton). The domestic ethylene glycol load has rebounded to over 70% [1][2]. International Price Difference The report does not provide specific analysis content for international price differences, only mentions a chart of "ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR" [19]. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Weaving orders have weakened on the margin, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has also decreased due to weakening profitability [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 84.4 tons (up 2.5 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 64.5 tons (up 2.8 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2].