新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 产量库存均有增加，碳酸锂基本面仍未改善 市场分析 2025年7月10日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于64560元/吨，收于64180元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.43%。当 日成交量为398022手，持仓量为323683手，较前一交易日减少3212手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳530 元/吨。所有合约总持仓591900手，较前一交易日增加6834手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加80331手，成交 量497318，整体投机度为0.84。当日碳酸锂仓单13191手，较上个交易日减少90手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月10日电池级碳酸锂报价6.26-6.47万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.155-6.255万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨。据SMM数据，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心 持续震荡上行。 当前期货市场呈现非理性反弹趋势。从市场成交情况来看，下游材料厂暂未有明确备库计划。需 求增量主要以长协加量或客供模式，现货贸易市场成交寥寥。但部分下游企业的刚性采购需求仍对市场价格形成 支撑，推动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and烧碱 are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, influenced by the macro - environment, the short - term futures price is strong, but the supply pressure is difficult to ease, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weak [4] - For烧碱, the low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase. The supply is expected to tighten, driving the price up. The demand shows limited improvement, and the supply pressure may intensify later [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5040 yuan/ton (+77), the East China basis is - 160 yuan/ton (-7), and the South China basis is - 110 yuan/ton (+3) [2] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4880 yuan/ton (+70), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4930 yuan/ton (+80) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of calcium carbide is 100 yuan/ton (-5), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 552 yuan/ton (-48), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 695 yuan/ton (-2), and the PVC export profit is - 5.2 dollars/ton (+1.7) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 38.6 tons (-0.9), the social inventory is 37.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based operation rate is 76.93% (-3.80%), the ethylene - based operation rate is 70.23% (+4.77%), and the overall operation rate is 75.07% (-1.43%) [2] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 65.8 tons (+2.8) [2] 烧碱 - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2507 yuan/ton (+53), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 56 yuan/ton (-22) [2] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1320 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 428.3 yuan/ton (+31.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 328.28 yuan/ton (+88.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1273.53 yuan/ton (+30.00) [3] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.43 tons (-0.99), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.36 tons (+0.06), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.40% (-0.10%) [3] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 81.56% (+0.89%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 58.89% (-1.36%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 77.80% (+2.63%) [3] Market Analysis PVC - The short - term futures price is strong due to the macro - environment. The supply pressure is high with new capacity expected to be put into production. The demand is weak both domestically and internationally, and the inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [4] 烧碱 - The low price of liquid chlorine leads to cost increase and supply tightening expectation. The demand from alumina is stable, but the overall demand improvement is limited. The supply pressure may increase later [4] Strategy - For PVC, maintain a neutral view, focus on macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [5] - For烧碱, maintain a neutral view, pay attention to the price trend of liquid chlorine and the inventory - building rhythm of the main downstream [5]

原油日报 | 2025-07-11 欧佩克决定10月后暂停增产 市场要闻与重要数据 1、\t纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.81美元，收于每桶66.57美元，跌幅为2.65%；9月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.55美元，收于每桶68.64美元，跌幅为2.21%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.44%，报513元/ 桶。 2、 美国总统特朗普：美联储应迅速降息。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t欧佩克在周四发布的《2025年世界石油展望》中表示，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，预计2026年全 球石油需求将增至1.063亿桶/日，2029年将攀升至1.116亿桶/日。对2026年至2029年需求的预测均低于去年的预期。 欧佩克仍预计2030年日均需求为1.133亿桶，与去年预测相同。欧佩克预计，到2050年，全球石油需求将达到1.229 亿桶/日，高于去年报告中预测的1.201亿桶/日。与此同时，欧佩克预计需求增长的持续时间将长于其他预测者，IEA 预计石油需求将在2020年代达到峰值。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、\t欧佩克+讨论从10月起暂停增产。（来源：Bloomberg） ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Market analysis shows that due to the expected policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, leading to a rebound in EG prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure for inventory to rise with the return of imports [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good. However, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the available spot in the market will increase. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants are gradually restarting, with concentrated arrivals of foreign ships at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons [1]

Industry Overview Upstream - International oil prices have rebounded, while the PTA price has declined [2] Midstream - The polyester operating rate has decreased, and the coal consumption of power plants has seasonally declined to a three-year low [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined to a nearly three-year low, while the number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [3] Key Events Production Industry - From January to June, the production and sales of the automotive market exceeded 15 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of the total new vehicle sales [1] Service Industry - The agreement on visa exemption between the Chinese government and the Malaysian government will take effect on July 17, 2025. Eligible passport holders can enter, exit, or transit the other country without a visa for up to 30 days per visit and 90 days within 180 days [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The industry credit spreads of various sectors, including agriculture, mining, and chemicals, have shown different trends from last year to this week, with some sectors experiencing significant declines [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various commodities, such as corn, eggs, and crude oil, have shown different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU: Neutral [5] - NR: Neutral [5] - BR: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The rubber price rebounds due to the warming market atmosphere, but the driving force is still weak. The cost - end support of rubber will gradually weaken, and the rebound strength is expected to be limited. The supply of BR changes little, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [5][6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,405 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,400 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,690 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Thailand: In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons. Different regions have different growth rates [2] - Vietnam: From January to May, Vietnam exported a total of 341,000 tons of mixed rubber, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Different types of mixed rubber have different growth trends [2] - China: In June, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales were 10.901 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - US: In the first five months of 2025, the US imported a total of 120.95 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The import of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires increased. The US imported 11.1 million tires from China, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, but the import of passenger car and truck and bus tires from China decreased [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On July 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 55 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 205 yuan/ton (+ 40), etc. [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 65.23 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.44), Thai glue was 54.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), etc. [4] -开工率: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.11% (- 0.42%), and that of semi - steel tires was 65.79% (+ 1.66%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,293,342 tons (- 248), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 632,377 tons (+ 287), etc. [4] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On July 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 415 yuan/ton (- 305), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. [4] -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.54% (- 1.44%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,270 tons (- 530), and the enterprise inventory was 26,500 tons (+ 150) [5] Strategy - For natural rubber (RU and NR), the rebound is driven by the warming market atmosphere, but the driving force is weak. The cost - end support will weaken, and the rebound strength is limited [5] - For BR, the supply changes little, the operating rate of semi - steel tire factories may rebound slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a limited range [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, most major global agricultural product producing areas were stable, but some regions faced risks due to weather. The overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, with short - term dryness in the Midwest being alleviated, and the yields remained stable. The cotton - growing areas in the US had favorable hydro - thermal conditions, but extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact. The palm oil - growing areas in Southeast Asia had a good overall growth environment, but a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra required attention. The rapeseed - growing areas in Canada and Australia had some issues, and the temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was generally normal, while high temperatures in Aksu from May to June needed to be monitored. Europe faced risks of drought and wildfires due to a heat dome from late June to early July, and strong convective weather occurred after the heat dome collapsed in July. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Monitoring Scope and Method**: The monitoring covered the US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil in June, using data from 2005 - 2025. It combined satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, with 24 key indicators. A self - developed yield model was also constructed, which used multi - spectral and hyperspectral remote sensing data, combined with meteorological and historical yield data, and was trained and optimized through a deep - learning model [6][7][13]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: The yields of US soybeans and corn were basically stable, with a slight decline in the overall yield per unit area that could be ignored. In the Canadian producing areas, the crop growth in the Manitoba region in the east was affected by drought, slightly dragging down the overall yield per unit area. The Australian rapeseed yield was slightly revised upward, but it was still worse than the historical average. The US cotton maintained good growth, but excessive precipitation in June and extreme precipitation in Texas in early July might have an impact [14]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Palm Oil Producing Areas in Malaysia and Indonesia**: In June 2025, the growth environment indicators in the palm oil - growing areas were generally in good condition. Vegetation indices in different regions showed small fluctuations. Precipitation and soil humidity had regional characteristics, with a sudden drop in precipitation in Sumatra posing a potential risk. The temperature rose slightly, remaining within the suitable range for palm growth [17][18][25]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the overall weather in the US soybean and corn producing areas was good, but there were regional differences in precipitation. North Dakota and Nebraska had poor soil moisture due to less precipitation, and North Dakota's crop growth was negatively affected. Vegetation indices in different regions showed significant differences related to hydro - thermal conditions. Soil humidity generally increased, but it decreased in Nebraska [26][31][35]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: In June 2025, the growth of cotton in the US producing areas was mostly on the rise due to good hydro - thermal conditions, but excessive precipitation in some areas had an inhibitory effect. Vegetation indices in different regions showed different trends, and soil humidity was generally higher than normal, with the increase in the deep layer being more obvious [38][39][41]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The vegetation index in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas slightly decreased, and the soil moisture risk in Manitoba was relatively high [1]. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: The growth of rapeseed in Australia was poor, and there was a high risk of yield reduction in South Australia and Victoria [1]. - **Xinjiang Jujube - growing Area**: The temperature in the Xinjiang jujube - growing area was basically normal, but the high temperature in Aksu from May to June needed attention [1]. - **Recent Formation and Collapse of the Heat Dome in Europe**: A heat dome formed in Europe from late June to early July, causing extreme high temperatures, drought, and wildfire risks. After the heat dome collapsed in July, strong convective weather occurred, and it might form again later [1]. - **Historical and Future Weather Analysis in North American Producing Areas**: The weather in North America in the past month and the extreme precipitation in the southern US were analyzed. The weather in North America in the coming month would be conducive to crop growth, with improved precipitation in the US Midwest and possible alleviation of soil moisture in the Canadian rapeseed - growing areas [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on July 9, 2025, including option volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market situation of index options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Volume - On July 9, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 978,300 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 1,051,700 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 1,262,700 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 96,400 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,522,800 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 32,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 92,900 contracts; the total trading volume of China Securities 1000 options was 200,500 contracts [1][22] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.63, with a month - on - month change of +0.07; the position PCR was reported at 1.07, with a month - on - month change of +0.02. Similar data for other options were also presented, showing different changes in turnover PCR and position PCR [2][30] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 15.21%, with a month - on - month change of +0.08%; the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was reported at 15.59%, with a month - on - month change of +0.16%; and so on for other options, each with its own VIX value and month - on - month change [3][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene futures price has strengthened, with the futures premium expanding, and the basis structure shows a negative basis. The fundamentals indicate that there is still pressure from South Korea's exports to China, domestic production is high, downstream demand is mixed, and the processing fee is weak [3]. - For styrene, port inventories are accumulating, the discount on the futures has narrowed, production profits are under pressure to compress, and downstream demand is weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The pure benzene futures premium has widened significantly, with the 2603BZ futures contract having a premium of about 170 yuan/ton over the spot [3]. - Figures related to the basis and inter - period spread are presented, including the pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third styrene contracts [8][12][14]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Pure benzene processing fees are weak, with the CFR China processing fee at 145 dollars/ton (-7 dollars/ton) and the FOB South Korea processing fee at 131 dollars/ton (-5 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene non - integrated production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), but it is expected to gradually compress [1]. - Various spreads and production profit figures are shown in the corresponding figures, such as the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, etc. [18][20][27]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.40 million tons (-0.30 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 111,500 tons (+12,700 tons), with East China commercial inventory at 39,000 tons (+7,700 tons) [1]. - The pure benzene operating rate situation is not clearly described in quantity, and the styrene operating rate is 80.0% (-0.1%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 41 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 259 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 391 yuan/ton (-27 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 55.88% (-3.84%), PS operating rate is 51.10% (-1.30%), and ABS operating rate is 65.04% (-0.96%), at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Among pure benzene downstream products, the caprolactam production profit is - 1560 yuan/ton (+0), the phenol - ketone production profit is - 564 yuan/ton (+0), the aniline production profit is 134 yuan/ton (-389), and the adipic acid production profit is - 1415 yuan/ton (-27) [1]. - The caprolactam operating rate is 95.72% (+6.41%), the phenol operating rate is 78.50% (-0.50%), the aniline operating rate is 69.24% (-0.10%), and the adipic acid operating rate is 64.30% (+2.00%) [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell pure benzene and styrene on rallies for hedging [4]. - Cross - product: Narrow the EB - BZ spread on rallies [4].

油料日报 | 2025-07-10 无 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4111.00元/吨，较前日变化+7.00元/吨，幅度+0.17%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+189，较前日变化-7，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周二，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，基准期约收低0.3%，因为美国的贸易政策令 人担忧，中西部地区天气条件良好。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌2.75美分到10.25美分不等，其中7月期约下跌7.50美 分，报收1024.25美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌10.25美分，报收1021.25美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌3.25美分，报收1017.50 美分/蒲式耳。7月19日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江 双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等 蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/ ...