聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-18 PP供应小幅收窄，需求跟进仍偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6843元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6467元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6850 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6480元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为7元/吨（+10），LL华 东基差为7元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为13元/吨（+7）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.1%（+0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+1.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为175.9元/吨（-104.8），PP油制生产利润为-434.1元/吨（-104.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-213.3元/吨（-9.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-9.0元/吨（+0.3），PP进口利润为-208.2元/吨（+0.3），PP出口利润为-5.8美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.4%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62. ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-11-18 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-11-17，上证50ETF期权成交量为78.62万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为104.09万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为128.67万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为5.62万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为157.27万张；上证50股指期权成交量为5.03万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为11.20万张；中证1000期权总成交量为27.79万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报1.05，环比变动为+0.33；持仓量PCR报0.91，环比变动为-0.07； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.22，环比变动为+0.40；持仓量PCR报0.99，环比变动为-0.08； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报1.09，环比变动为+0.13；持仓量PCR报1.18，环比变动为+0.01 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.51 ，环比变动为+0.53；持仓量PCR报1.45；环比变动为+0.10； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.31，环比变动为+0.28 ；持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is suppressed by the rising risk appetite driven by the strong stock market, and the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan (+0.15%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.20%, down 0.20% (-2.38%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% (-1.61%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.54, up 0.25 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1050, up 0.011 (+0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.51, up 0.05 (+3.13%); DR007 is 1.52, up 0.06 (+3.84%); R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, up 0.00 (-0.16%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, up 0.00 (-0.16%) [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 116.45 yuan respectively. Their price changes were 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.33% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.009 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, 0.014 yuan, and - 0.332 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Fiscal Situation**: From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. The general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.508%, 1.514%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview There is no specific data - based content provided in the given text for this section. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis spread trends of the two - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [37][40][48]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis spread trends of the five - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [50][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied yield, IRR, and basis spread trends of the ten - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [57][59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied yield, IRR, and basis spread trends of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [64][67][70]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the rebound of repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis spread of the 2512 contract [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side traders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation due to high inventory and oversupply, and stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern because of weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 117,020 yuan/ton and closed at 116,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 102,806 (-15,915) lots, and the open interest was 107,341 (-4,908) lots. The price continued the downward trend after breaking through on November 14. The strengthening of the US dollar index and loose supply - demand relationship with rising inventory led to a clear short - term downward trend [1] - **Nickel Ore**: New tenders in the nickel ore market are about to be finalized, and the price is stable. In the Philippines, there are tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. The downstream nickel - iron price is falling, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore and want to lower the price. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly at +25 - 26 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 35,826 (799) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (5,604) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,113 (+17,461) lots, and the open interest was 172,728 (-4,171) lots. The price fluctuated at a low level, hovering around the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, with the short - term moving average system intertwined and the direction unclear. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and falling nickel prices, there was no sign of a price rebound [3] - **Spot**: The price continued to decline to a historical low, and the market inquiry heat increased. In the context of weak demand and falling raw material costs, steel mills were more willing to sell at low prices. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,750 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 380 - 580 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 902.5 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation needs further consolidation, but the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment and economic expectations, with an estimated average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and the Fed's subsequent monetary policy rhythm is affected by multiple factors, including the candidates for the Fed Chairman [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on commodities with high certainty, such as non-ferrous metals and precious metals, and consider buying them on dips [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The domestic economic foundation needs to be strengthened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment, but in October, the manufacturing PMI, export data, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry all showed different degrees of decline [1]. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The US government's shutdown has ended, but the US manufacturing index has declined, and employment data is weak. The release of important economic data and the candidates for the Fed Chairman will affect the subsequent monetary policy [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the non-ferrous sector is boosted by the global easing expectation, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention, and the agricultural products are affected by Sino-US negotiations and weather expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [4]. Important News - The Chinese government emphasizes building a strong domestic market and developing new quality productive forces. There are also diplomatic and trade events such as Sino-US and South Korea-US economic and trade negotiations, and India-US energy cooperation [1][2][5]. - There are military conflicts and energy supply changes, such as Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and OPEC+'s decision to increase production [2][3][5].

流动性日报 | 2025-11-18 市场流动性概况 2025-11-17，股指板块成交6654.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.52%；持仓金额13318.77亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.35%；成交持仓比为49.83%。 国债板块成交3945.39亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.33%；持仓金额8642.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.04%；成交持 仓比为44.70%。 基本金属板块成交5282.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.54%；持仓金额6214.29亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.14%； 成交持仓比为99.56%。 贵金属板块成交11786.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+23.70%；持仓金额4457.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.51%；成 交持仓比为333.99%。 能源化工板块成交4112.50亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.48%；持仓金额4595.22亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.02%；成 交持仓比为79.15%。 农产品板块成交3395.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.12%；持仓金额6004.07亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.79%；成交 持仓比为54.81%。 黑色建材板块成交2441 ...

航运日报 | 2025-11-18 CMA12月份涨价函发布，关注马士基12月第一周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹48周价格1225/2050；HPL -SPOT 11月下半月船期报价1435/2335，12月 上半月船期报价2835-3235美元/FEU，12月下半月价格4035美元/FEU。马士基发布12月份涨价函2080/3200. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 11月下半月价格1425/2365；ONE 11月下半月船期1235/1935，12月上半月价格 1565/2435；HMM上海-鹿特丹11月下半月船期报价1268/2106; YML 11/15-11/30 报价1250/2000。MSC发布12月上 半月涨价函为1860/3100. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月下半月船期报价1585/2745，12月上半月船期报价介于3445-3545美元/FEU， 12月下半月船期报价3945-4045；EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810；OOCL 11月下半月船期报价介于2300-2 ...

氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-17氧化铝主力合约开于2816元/吨，收于2817元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.70%，最高价达到2840元/吨，最低价为2774元/吨。全天交易日成交505612手，全天交易日 持仓390494手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-17保太民用生铝采购价格16800元/吨，机械生铝采购价格17000元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-100元/吨。ADC12保太报价20900元/吨，价格环比昨日变化-100元/吨。 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-280元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水0元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21490元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-140元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21480元/吨，较上一交易日变化-280元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-150元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-17日沪铝主力合约开于21835元/吨，收于21725元/吨，较上一交易日变化-250元/吨， 最高价达21835元/吨，最低价达到21650元/吨。全天交 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-18 烧碱下游调低接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4601元/吨（-7）；华东基差-101元/吨（-13）;华南基差-11元/吨（-3）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4500元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4590元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（-25）；电石利润-125元/吨（-25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-820元/吨（-50）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-491元/吨（-26）；PVC出口利润-1.2美元/吨（-1.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.2万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率79.57%（-0.60%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.13%（-7.10%）；PVC开工率76.71%（-2.57%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.9万吨（-4.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2291元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差147元/吨（+5）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（-10）；山东50%液碱报价 ...

Group 1: Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18 cents, closing at $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 19 cents, closing at $64.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The main SC crude oil contract rose 0.24%, closing at 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Ukraine's General Staff claimed to have attacked the Novogubyshevsk Refinery of Rosneft in the Samara region of Russia, the latest in a series of attacks on Russia's fuel production industry in the country's deep - seated areas [1] - Serbian President Vucic said on October 16 that the government was willing to repurchase the controlling stake held by Gazprom at a premium to help NIS, the country's only refinery, get out of the US sanctions dilemma [1] - The Prime Minister of Iraq told the former CEO of Lukoil that Iraq remained committed to stabilizing the global oil market, and Lukoil's West Qurna oil field continued to produce about 480,000 barrels of oil per day [1] - The analysis of the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) pointed out that sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, cutting Russia's oil revenue and driving Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Media reported that the loading operations at the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, had resumed after last week's attack. However, satellite images showed that the loading of Urals crude oil was still interrupted, and two berths at the Sheskharis Port were not operating normally. The loading speed of the Sheskharis Oil Terminal, especially for Urals crude oil, was still below normal levels. The port used to export about 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and a medium - term short position is recommended (shorting the monthly spread, Brent, or WTI) [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include tighter supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]