1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PE prices continue to decline in a volatile manner due to weakened cost - side support and an unimproved supply - demand imbalance. It will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - PP's weak supply - demand situation is hard to reverse, and the cost - side support also weakens. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for inter - period trading, conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6785 yuan/ton (-58), PP main contract at 6392 yuan/ton (-75). LL North China spot was 6840 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 6900 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6480 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was 55 yuan/ton (+48), LL East China basis 115 yuan/ton (+108), PP East China basis 88 yuan/ton (+75) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.1% (+0.5%), PP operating rate 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 181.4 yuan/ton (+5.5), PP oil - based production profit - 428.6 yuan/ton (+5.5), PDH - based PP production profit - 278.7 yuan/ton (-65.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 20.7 yuan/ton (-11.8), PP import profit - 176.9 yuan/ton (+31.3), PP export profit - 4.4 dollars/ton (+1.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 50.0% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 50.4% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 62.6% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and oil prices fluctuated widely with long - term supply - demand pressure, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Ningxia Baofeng and Jilin Petrochemical, restarts in Zhenhai Refining and Sinochem Quanzhou. Future planned maintenance is limited, the operating rate continues to rise, and new production capacities such as Guangxi Petrochemical are gradually released, so supply pressure persists [2]. - **Demand**: PE downstream overall operating rate declined month - on - month. Agricultural film demand is expected to shrink, and packaging film operating rate decreased month - on - month. Overall downstream demand is still limited [2]. - **Inventory**: Due to the unimproved supply - demand contradiction, inventory pressure persists, and there is a lack of upward drivers in the short term [2]. 3.2.2 PP - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and although international oil prices fluctuated widely and the price of propane rebounded slightly, cost support is still limited [3]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Sinochem Quanzhou Line 1 and Guangdong Petrochemical Line 2, and the full - scale shutdown of Juzhengyuan's 120 - million - ton PDH device for maintenance. Although short - term temporary maintenance eases supply pressure, it has limited impact on the oversupply pattern. Upstream is actively reducing prices to sell, but demand is weak, and inventory clearance pressure is high [3]. - **Demand**: Downstream overall operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis when prices are low. Demand follow - up is still weak [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The loose supply - demand fundamentals may limit its rebound space, and it will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. It is in a short - term volatile pattern, and prices are still under pressure in the long term [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No recommendation [4]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-19 外盘维持偏强态势，市场支撑仍存 市场分析 1、\t11月18日地区价格：山东市场，4250-4450；东北市场，4040-4150；华北市场，4300-4400；华东市场，4170-4350； 沿江市场，4510-4810；西北市场，4250-4300；华南市场，4250-4400。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年12月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷566美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷558美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4415元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4353元/吨，涨42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷560美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷552美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4368元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4306元/吨，涨42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 外盘价格延续偏强态势，叠加高贴水，LPG到岸成本受到支撑。现货方面，昨日山东、华北、华东等地价格有所 下调，下游按需采购，市场交投平淡。就LPG自身基本面而言，海外供应相对充裕，国内商品受检修影响供应呈 下降态势。此外 ...

原油日报 | 2025-11-19 美沙会晤后预计欧佩克将维持现有产量计划 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨83美分，收于每桶60.74美元，涨幅为1.39%； 1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨69美分，收于每桶64.89美元，涨幅为1.07%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.74%， 报466元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 美国至11月14日当周API原油库存 444.8万桶，前值130万桶。当周API投产原油量 30.3万桶/日，前值50.2万桶 /日。当周API汽油库存 154.6万桶，前值-138.5万桶。当周API精炼油库存 57.7万桶，前值94.4万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 高盛预计，到2026/27年，TTF天然气价格将为29/20欧元/兆瓦时，JKM天然气价格将为10.50/7.30美元/百万英 热单位，以刺激额外的天然气需求。到2028/2029年，TTF天然气价格将达到每兆瓦时12/12欧元，JKM天然气价格 将达到每百万英热单位4.40/4.45美元，亨利港天然气价格将达到每百万英热单位2.70/2.75美元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in pure benzene inventory and decrease in styrene inventory are favorable for the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [2] - For pure benzene, the lowest point of US refinery operations has passed, and the low gasoline inventory in the US and strong gasoline crack spreads support Asian aromatics. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has recovered, but the window remains closed. In the short term, there is a concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China, leading to a faster increase in port inventory. Domestic production operations continue to rise, while downstream operations are weak [2] - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boosts and low domestic operations, but there are expectations of resumption in late November. Downstream demand is still present, but downstream operations are still low [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the main basis of pure benzene and its main futures contract price, the main contract basis of pure benzene, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread of pure benzene, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene [7][10] - Figures related to EB include the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [13][16] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to production costs and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the spread between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, and the spreads between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene [18][21][24] - Figures related to import profits include the import profit of pure benzene and styrene, and the spreads between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [30][36] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to pure benzene include the East China port inventory of pure benzene and its operating rate [38] - Figures related to styrene include the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory of styrene, and its operating rate [40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][54] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][62][71] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive spreads for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [3] - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [2][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption, the supply - demand situation won't be too loose, and cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, in the short term, the support at around 5400 is strong, and it will fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [6] - Regarding pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [9] Group 3: Summary According to Cotton - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,558 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1163, up 29 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1394, up 38 from the previous day [1] - In October 2025, China's cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (10%) from September and 20,000 tons (15.6%) from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4%. From September 2025 to August 2026, the cumulative cotton imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report significantly increased the US cotton production. The global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment. After the data release, the US cotton futures price fell. With the new cotton concentratedly listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure is still being released, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, since the National Day holiday, as the harvesting progress accelerated, the market's expectation of new cotton production declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, supporting the previous upward trend of the futures price. However, the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall, and the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season was not prosperous, with limited order increments mainly in small and short orders. Now in the off - season of the textile industry, textile enterprises purchase cotton raw materials as needed, and the demand support is insufficient [2] Group 4: Summary According to Sugar - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5407 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 193, up 21 from the previous day [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while the consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season [3] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, Brazil's supply remains strong, and the production outlook for the next season is optimistic. India's sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly, and the export expectation increases. Thailand's sugar production is also expected to increase, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the futures price. However, India's exports are still difficult to increase in the short term, and the supply pressure in the later stage of Brazil's sugar - crushing season is gradually weakening, so the short - term decline space of raw sugar may be limited. In the long - term, the surplus pattern restricts the rebound momentum of raw sugar, and it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range [4] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the domestic sugar production in the new season is still expected to increase strongly. However, the current price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the season. Coupled with the stricter control policy on syrup, it provides short - term support for sugar prices, and the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [4] Group 5: Summary According to Pulp - Related Content Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5408 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 + 142, up 66 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP01 - 283, up 66 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot prices of imported wood pulp mostly stabilized, with some pulp varieties showing a weak trend. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weakened. The shipment of imported softwood pulp by traders was still slow, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The imported hardwood pulp market traders continued to hold prices, and downstream enterprises mostly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The trading in the imported natural pulp and imported chemimechanical pulp markets had no obvious fluctuations, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The de - stocking speed of domestic ports was lower than expected, and the port inventory remained high for a long time, so the supply - loose pattern has not changed substantially [8] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States remained weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills gradually emerged. Weak domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, the paper was in a surplus state, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the overall output of finished paper did not increase significantly. The over - capacity in the paper sector led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Now in the traditional peak season of the industry, downstream paper mills are cautious in purchasing raw materials and have not carried out large - scale stockpiling [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, while the rating for BR is also neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of rubber is strongly supported as domestic and foreign natural rubber raw material prices remain at a year-on-year high. With the gradual increase in recent arrivals in China and no obvious highlights in demand, there is expected to be some inventory accumulation space in the later period. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which will be conducive to the further expansion of the price difference between RU and NR. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term due to maintenance support, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials. The upstream butadiene is still in a weak situation, and the inventory accumulation pattern may continue [11] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,295 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,345 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,505 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan-produced full latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 standard rubber was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of -5 US dollars/ton. The ex-factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume reached 5.8664 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [2] - The ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a decrease of 1% from the previous month; the consumption of natural rubber was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - According to data released by China's General Administration of Customs on November 7, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2025 totaled 667,000 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared with 659,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [2] - From January to September 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 759,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19%; the total export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 330%; the total export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70% [3] - On November 10, the latest market data released by the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales of the national passenger car market in October reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, ending the previous two consecutive months of "double growth" trend. However, from the cumulative performance of the whole year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars from January to October were 19.25 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, still maintaining a relatively stable growth rhythm [3] - According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of the EU passenger car market in September 2025 increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the RU basis was -445 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 695 yuan/ton (+30), and the NR basis was 763.00 yuan/ton (+17.00); the full latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (+0), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-50), and the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between the full latex and the 3L was -350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between the mixed rubber and the styrene-butadiene rubber was 3,800 yuan/ton (-150) [4][5] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.55 Thai baht/kg (+0.22), the price of Thai glue was 56.70 Thai baht/kg (+0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [6] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all-steel tires was 64.29% (-1.08%), and the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 72.99% (+0.10%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (-10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On November 18, 2025, the BR basis was -155 yuan/ton (-50), the ex-factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,000 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -1,556 yuan/ton (+433) [8] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high-cis butadiene rubber was 69.92% (+3.91%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,970 tons (+1,450), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,850 tons (+80) [10] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Due to the strong cost support and the expected increase in supply later, the supply-demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and 05. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance. The supply is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price fluctuations of upstream butadiene raw materials [11]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-19 关注PVC反倾销税进展 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4520元/吨（-81）；华东基差-40元/吨（+61）;华南基差20元/吨（+31）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4480元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4540元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（+0）；电石利润-125元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-820元/吨（-50）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-491元/吨（-26）；PVC出口利润2.3美元/吨（+3.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.2万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率79.57%（-0.60%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.13%（-7.10%）；PVC开工率76.71%（-2.57%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.9万吨（-4.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2286元/吨（-5）；山东32%液碱基差152元/吨（+5）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价125 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-11-19 俄罗斯燃料油发货量维持偏低水平 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.82%，报2539元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.47%，报3225 元/吨。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中期偏空 跨品种：前期多LU-FU价差头寸可适当止盈 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 原油价格延续弱势震荡态势，短期虽然有宏观与地缘因素的扰动，但中期油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，对燃 料油单边价格存在一定压制。就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前处于高低硫强弱格局收敛的阶段，前期偏强的高硫 燃料油基本面边际转松，市场结构调整，但下方支撑因素依然存在。其中，受到乌克兰无人机袭击的影响，俄罗 斯炼厂计划外检修量较高，导致成品油供应收紧。参考船期数据，俄罗斯11月高硫燃料油发货量预计在171万吨， 环比下降18万吨，同比减少63万吨。低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修的变化，本月尼 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The price of late Fuji apples is generally stable. The western warehouse transactions are fair, while the ground transactions in Shandong are winding down. The inflow of market goods is limited, and the sales area is in the off - season. The inflow of citrus squeezes the sales space of apples. The inventory of new - season late Fuji is lower than last year, and the proportion of good - quality goods has decreased [2][3] - Red dates: The purchase progress in some areas of Xinjiang has accelerated, and farmers' price - holding sentiment has loosened. The spot market purchase enthusiasm has weakened, and the new - season red dates are expected to be listed in a concentrated manner, with large inventory pressure. The quality of red dates is better than last year, and the actual consumption situation will be a key focus [7][8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,433 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton or - 0.05% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,325 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton or + 0.59% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western warehouse transactions of late Fuji are fair, with fruit farmers mainly selling high - quality goods. The ground transactions in Shandong are winding down, with reduced supply and declining quality. The prices of high - quality goods are stable, and the market is under the support of foreign trade channels. The market is affected by competing fruits such as citrus, and the follow - up focus is on the digestion ability of inventory goods [2] Red Dates - The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and some farmers' price - holding sentiment has loosened. The purchase in Ruoqiang, Hotan, and Qiemo has basically ended. The raw material purchase in production areas is priced according to quality. The purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed down. The high - quality goods transactions in the western warehouses of late Fuji are stable, and the ground transactions in Shandong are winding down. The new - season late Fuji inventory work is coming to an end, with inventory lower than last year. The market in the sales area is in the off - season, and the inflow of citrus squeezes the sales space of apples. This week, focus on the inventory completion in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipment speed in the west [3] Red Dates - Yesterday, the red date futures price closed slightly up. The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and farmers' price - holding sentiment has loosened. The spot market purchase enthusiasm has weakened, and the new - season red dates are expected to be listed in a concentrated manner. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of red dates is better than last year, and the actual consumption situation will be a key focus [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; demand is picking up but supply pressure remains, with limited upward drivers, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Local PDH unit maintenance boosts and the restart of downstream units brings demand increment, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The propylene spot price rebounds after hitting the bottom, but the futures price falls, mainly due to the sharp decline in coal prices and the weakening expectation of cost - side support in the futures trading. The overall supply of propylene remains loose, the factory inventory pressure is still high, the demand - side support has increased, and the cost support is limited [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [16][18][19] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - The report provides data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [39][40][47] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows the factory inventory of propylene and PP powder [63]