尿素日报 | 2025-09-24 内需依旧偏弱，九江心连心开车成功 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-23，尿素主力收盘1658元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1620 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1610元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-48 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-38元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-38元/吨（-8）；尿素生产利润80元/吨（-10），出口利润1140 元/吨（+19）。 供应端：截至2025-09-23，企业产能利用率81.21%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为51.60 万吨（-3.34）。 需求端：截至2025-09-23，复合肥产能利用率38.63%（+0.81%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为56.78%（+1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，现货价格跌破前低后成交好转，持续性不足，现货价格震荡偏弱，关注节前收 单情绪。目前部分地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥拿货 ...

内地成交仍可 甲醇日报 | 2025-09-24 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤445元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润715元/吨（+15）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2080元/吨（+15），内蒙北线基差337元/吨（+20），内蒙南线2100元/吨（-70）；山东临沂2360元/吨（-5）， 鲁南基差217元/吨（+0）；河南2250元/吨（+20），河南基差107元/吨（+25）；河北2240元/吨（-70），河北基差157 元/吨（-65）。隆众内地工厂库存340480吨（-2080），西北工厂库存225500吨（+4200）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233776 吨（-16947），西北工厂待发订单115700吨（-20900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2240元/吨（-12），太仓基差-103元/吨（-7），CFR中国260美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-18元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2465元/吨；广东甲醇2250元/吨（-5），广东基差-93元/吨（+0）。隆众港口总库存1557770吨（+7440）， 江苏港口库存787000吨（-17000），浙江港口库存2 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2928元/吨，较前日变动-106元/吨，幅度-3.49%；菜粕2601合约2447元/吨，较前 日变动-81元/吨，幅度-3.20%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2980元/吨，较前日变动-40元/吨，现货基差M0152， 较前日变动+66；江苏地区豆粕现货2870元/吨，较前日变动-70元/吨，现货基差M01-58，较前日变动+36；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2870元/吨，较前日变动跌-90元/吨，现货基差M01-58，较前日变动+16。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动-90元/吨，现货基差RM01+163，较前日变动-9。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至9月21日当周，美国大豆优良率61%，连续第四周下降，低于上周 的63%和去年同期的64%；大豆落叶率61%，一周前41%，上年同期62%，过去五年均值60%；大豆收割进度9%， 一周前5%，上年同期12%，过去五年均值9%。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号，未来需持续关注。另一方面，美国当前的 生物柴油政策并未达到市场预期，油脂价格的下跌一定程度上拖累 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 下游逢低点价补库，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-09-23，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73040元/吨，收于73660元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.16%。当日 成交量为497857手，持仓量为255907手，前一交易日持仓量271624手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为1310元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单39449手，较上个交易日变化540手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73200-74500元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价 71000-72200元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格833美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。据SMM数据， 下游材料厂逢跌点价采购活跃，价格反弹后则回归谨慎观望态度。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游材料厂存在一定 国庆节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。供应方面，以锂辉石为原料生产的碳酸锂占比已超过 60%，成为市场供给的重要支撑；锂云母原料所产碳酸锂占比则下降至15%。 策略 当日期货盘面先跌后涨宽幅震荡，目前消费旺季有一定支撑，短期供需格局较 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Steel**: Oscillating weakly [2] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating [4] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating [6] - **Steam Coal**: No strategy suggested [7] 2. Core Views - The market expectation for steel has weakened, leading to a weak performance in steel prices. Extreme weather has hindered logistics and transportation in the south, causing terminal demand to stagnate and speculative demand to decline significantly. The improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday is limited [1]. - The iron ore market is under cautious observation and is oscillating. This week, the arrival of iron ore has decreased slightly month - on - month, while iron ore demand remains high due to high pig iron production. Attention should be paid to the impact of the change in floating cargo volume on arrival and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - Coking coal and coke have strong bottom support and are oscillating. The supply - demand structure of coke has tightened, and there is an expectation of price increases from major coke enterprises, but coke inventories have continued to accumulate. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, market sentiment is positive, and demand is considerable. The relatively strong steam coal price and pre - holiday restocking demand support the coking coal price [5][6]. - The pre - holiday restocking of steam coal is basically completed, and the market's price - holding sentiment has declined. The supply of steam coal is sufficient, and the daily consumption of power coal has begun to decline, resulting in a decrease in market demand. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: Domestic steel market prices have changed from rising to falling, with black futures falling across the board and spot prices weakly correcting. The trading volume has shrunk. The rebar main contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3340 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel is average, and the national building materials trading volume is 91977 tons, showing a significant decrease compared with the previous day [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating weakly, and no strategies are suggested for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore weakened slightly yesterday. The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.74%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 179.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65.53%. The total trading volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 227 million tons (18 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 87.6% (including 118 million tons of mine trading volume) [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, and no strategies are suggested for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated yesterday. On the spot side, the coal prices in the main production areas generally continued to rise, while the prices of some coal varieties in a few coal mines decreased. The coke market remained stable, and the coke production on the supply side remained stable. The price of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise slightly, with the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal rising to around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be oscillating. No strategies are suggested for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the coal prices oscillated. The inspection of over - production in the production areas continued to be strict, but the overall impact was limited, and the coal supply was sufficient. Some coal mines had low inventories, and their prices remained stable. At ports, as the pit - mouth coal price continued to rise, buyers' resistance increased, the pre - holiday restocking was basically completed, and market demand declined. In terms of imports, the tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the price of low - calorie domestic coal rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is suggested [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No relevant content provided. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On September 23, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.1104 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 0.9962 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.6188 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.142 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 3.1791 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0667 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.0855 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.3566 million contracts [1]. - The table shows the call, put and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as the total trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.4543 million contracts, with 0.7932 million call contracts and 0.6611 million put contracts [21]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.90, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the position PCR was reported at 0.74, with a month - on - month change of +0.01. Similar data for other options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), etc. [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 18.22%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.31%. For other options like CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), etc., their VIX values and month - on - month changes are also presented [3][47].

库存方面：截至2025-09-23，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.70万吨，较上期变化-0.15万吨。截止2025-09-23，LME 锌库存为45775吨，较上一交易日变化-1050吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 国内过剩压制下锌价难有明显反弹 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为45.99美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至21880元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至21880元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至21880元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-55元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-23沪锌主力合约开于22080元/吨，收于21845元/吨，较前一交易日-150元/吨，全天交易日成交 125331手，全天交易日持仓140372手，日内价格最高点达到22105元/吨，最低点达到21820元/吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，节前备货叠加价格走低，下游接货略有好转，但现货贴水修复表现平平，国内高供给对价格形成 压制。国内外走势依旧偏离，海外库存持续去库，升水走高，仓单风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market and rising risk appetite. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.23, down 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1146, up 0.001 (+0.01%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, with no change (-0.27%); DR007 was 1.48, down 0.01 (-0.90%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, up 0.01 (+0.63%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.63%) [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report presents figures related to the closing price trends, price change rates, capital precipitation trends, position ratios, net position ratios of the top 20, long - short position ratios of the top 20, the spread between government - owned enterprise bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures contracts [13][16][18][22]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - The report shows figures on the Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [28][36]. 3.4 Spread Overview - The report includes figures on the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures contracts and the term spreads of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][37][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][49][52]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [54][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [61][63]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [68][74]. 4. Market Analysis 4.1 Macroeconomic Aspects - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The previous bonds issued before this date will remain VAT - exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and increase effective investment [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. 4.2 Capital Aspects - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed, indicating increased capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - to - long - term corporate financing demand. Deposits increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion power and the economy being in a weak recovery stage [2]. - Central Bank: On September 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.462%, 1.567%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4.3 Market Aspects - Closing Prices: On September 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.63 yuan, 107.72 yuan, and 114.32 yuan respectively, with price change rates of - 0.05%, - 0.13%, - 0.21%, and - 0.67% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.007 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, 0.018 yuan, and - 0.140 yuan respectively [2]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and new variables are needed for a clear trend. Oil prices are range - bound, with a mid - term expectation of oversupply and short - term geopolitical uncertainties. The price direction guidance for fuel oil is limited [1]. - The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil have marginally improved recently. Although supply is still relatively abundant and inventory is high, the pressure has eased compared to the previous period. The market structure has strengthened, and the Singapore spot premium has turned positive. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the high - sulfur oil market, and there is limited upward or downward drive from the current position [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply pressure has increased due to the Nigerian Dangote refinery's increased exports after an RFCC device shutdown. However, the overall supply pressure is limited as the Western arbitrage cargo volume has declined and domestic production remains at a medium - low level. The strong premium of gasoline and diesel over low - sulfur oil diverts components and supports the crack spread [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.68% at 2,758 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures also closed down 0.68% at 3,350 yuan/ton [1]. - Oil prices are in a range - bound state. The mid - term balance sheet shows an expectation of oversupply, and there are many short - term geopolitical uncertainties, making the trend unclear and providing limited guidance on fuel oil prices [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, mid - term downward [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, mid - term downward [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

FICC日报 | 2025-09-24 美联储降息路径分歧加剧 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月经济压力边际增加，一是中国8月经济数据有所转弱，显现"工业缓、投资弱、消费淡" 等特征；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时报》和路透社披露， 特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频提稳增长政策。9月10 日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力""推 进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。中美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以合作方式妥善 解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。9月19日晚，中美元首通电话，就当 前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。国务院召开新闻发 布会，介绍"十四五"时期金融业的发展情况，此次会议不涉及短期政策调整，关于"十五五"以及下一步金融改革内 容，将在中央统一部署后做进一步沟通。央行表示，当前中国货币政策立场是支持性的，实施适度宽松的货币政 策；证监 ...