1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Options: Sell Puts [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is currently facing tight mine - end supply, increased refined copper exports due to foreign premium, and reluctant selling of scrap copper. Demand is relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors. However, if copper prices fall, downstream replenishment enthusiasm is expected to rise. Therefore, it is recommended to buy and hedge in batches at low prices between 98,000 yuan/ton and 98,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the short - term decline of copper varieties caused by the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 8, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 103,200 yuan/ton and closed at 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,660 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quotation range was a discount of 180 yuan to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 65 yuan, narrowing by 15 yuan from the previous day. The spot mainstream price was between 101,470 - 102,700 yuan/ton. The main futures contract showed a trend of rising and then falling. It is expected that the spot will remain at a discount, and attention should be paid to the impact of market purchasing trends on the discount as the delivery date approaches [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from 1 trillion US dollars to 1.5 trillion US dollars in fiscal year 2027 [3]. - Employment data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations and still at a historical low. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [3]. - Mine end: Codelco's Chilean production area produced 1.333 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The target production in 2026 is 1.344 million tons [3]. 3.1.4 Smelting and Import - Fitch's BMI maintains the average copper price forecast for 2026 at 11,000 US dollars/ton. It points out that supply shortages, green transformation demand, and the Fed's interest - rate cut policy will support copper prices, but the weak real estate market in China may offset some demand growth. The global refined copper production growth rate is expected to drop to 1.1% in 2026, and the market may face shortages [4]. 3.1.5 Consumption - S&P Global says that the growth of AI and the defense industry will increase global copper demand by 50% to 42 million tons by 2040. If recycling and mining are not improved, the annual supply shortage may exceed 10 million tons [5]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,850 tons to 141,075 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,211 tons to 108,685 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on January 8 was 273,800 tons, a change of 16,200 tons from the previous week [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The supply of domestic PVC is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The caustic soda market also has a weak supply - demand situation, with inventory accumulation and some downstream start - up rates decreasing. The overall market is affected by both supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,905 yuan/ton (-67), the East China basis is -245 yuan/ton (+27), and the South China basis is -265 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,660 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (-60) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 750 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -110 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -634 yuan/ton (+80), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -192 yuan/ton (+87), and the PVC export profit is -27.4 US dollars/ton (+7.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.8 tons (+1.9), the social PVC inventory is 54.6 tons (+2.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 77.46% (+0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 70.73% (-3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (-0.70%). The production enterprise's pre - sales volume is 90.9 tons (+9.4) [1]. Market Analysis The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The release of the draft for soliciting opinions on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, but after the macro - sentiment fades, the futures price fluctuates and corrects. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, the downstream start - up is slightly decreasing, and the social inventory is slightly increasing. The export orders remain resilient [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5]. Caustic Soda Market Data - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,218 yuan/ton (-43), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -68 yuan/ton (+43) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,080 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,125 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 517.8 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -194.20 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 604.50 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 49.51 tons (+0.94), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.08 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.80% (+0.40%) [2]. - **Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 84.67% (-0.47%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 60.09% (-0.72%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 88.43% (+3.38%) [2]. Market Analysis The caustic soda market has a weak supply - demand pattern. The futures price rebounds with the improvement of market expectations but then fluctuates and corrects. The inventory is accumulating, and the start - up rates of some downstream industries are decreasing [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Fluctuate with the macro - situation [5]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Propylene downstream start - up has rebounded, supporting price increase. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and with sentiment boost, the propylene price has continued to strengthen. Future focus should be on cost - side changes and the implementation of PDH unit maintenance [1][2] - Unilateral strategy is to wait and see. Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved in the short term, the support is still limited. The short - term market is mainly in a strong oscillation under sentiment boost, waiting for marginal unit maintenance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on propylene basis, including the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and 03 - 04 contract spread. The propylene main contract closing price is 5963 yuan/ton (+9), the East China basis is 12 yuan/ton (+16) [1][6] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Propylene start - up rate is 76% (+1%). The production profit and start - up rate of different production methods such as PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking are also involved. For example, the PDH production profit and capacity utilization rate are presented [1][19] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The start - up rates and production profits of various downstream products are provided. PP powder start - up rate is 37% (-1.19%), production profit is - 40 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane start - up rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 47 yuan/ton (+68); etc [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - Propylene plant inventory is 44,690 tons (-3,100) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas were lifted, leading to improved transactions. The futures market showed a volatile upward trend, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, causing a slight increase in spot prices. However, the new orders slowed down with the price increase. The supply side saw a rise in supply as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The demand side was in the process of off - season storage procurement. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day, and the procurement improved. The start - up rate of melamine also rebounded with rigid demand procurement. The factory inventory of urea remained basically flat this week, while the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, and the lowest quotes were higher than the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The report suggests continuous monitoring of export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][3][4][5][6][8][9][14][16] 2. Urea Production - It covers the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based capacity utilization rates are presented [27][28][30] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - The FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and large - particle urea CFR in Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, the differences between foreign and Chinese prices, and the urea export profit and disk export profit are included [32][36][39] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of orders to be delivered are shown [46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract are included [50][53][57] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile - Inter - period trading: Go long on UR05 - 09 spread when the spread is low - Inter - variety trading: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral for both unilateral and inter - period strategies, and there is no recommendation for cross - variety strategies [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total port inventory of methanol remains high, with a divergence where inventory in Zhejiang accumulates further and that in Jiangsu starts to decline. The inventory pressure is still significant, and the market is waiting for the expected peak and decline of the arrival volume. Attention should also be paid to the duration of the winter shutdown in Iran. There are concerns about the subsequent centralized maintenance of MTO due to low MTO profits. The expected maintenance of Xingxing in mid - January means large inventory pressure in January, and the possible maintenance of Shenghong and Bohua MTO in February - March and the first half of the year may weaken the de - stocking expectation from February to April [3] - The supply pressure on the mainland persists. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Southwest gas - based production in the second half of the month. The traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season with general performance, and the mainland factories are in a cycle of continuous inventory increase [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - There are multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, as well as the spread between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][13][20] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [24][25][29] 3.3 Methanol Start - up Rate and Inventory - The figures cover the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the mainland factory sample inventory, and the overall methanol start - up rate in China [31][38] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report presents regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [35][43][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are shown [45][53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - Mid - stream construction starts have slightly increased. Upstream energy prices show a mixed trend with a slight decline in international crude oil and rising prices of certain non - ferrous metals. Mid - stream chemical and energy sectors see positive indicators, and downstream real estate and service industries show signs of recovery [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - stream and Upstream Industry Events - **Production Industry** - On January 8, Sinopec Group and China National Aviation Fuel Group were approved to restructure, which is expected to enhance the resilience of the aviation kerosene industry chain and improve competitiveness [1] - Four government departments held a symposium on the power and energy - storage battery industry to regulate competition order due to issues like blind construction and low - price competition [1] - **Service Industry** - OpenAI launched ChatGPT Health on January 8, indicating a large demand in the medical and health market as over 230 million people globally ask health - related questions weekly [2] B. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - **Energy**: International crude oil prices have slightly declined [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum and nickel prices are rising [3] - **Mid - stream** - **Chemical**: PX and urea operating rates are at high levels [4] - **Energy**: Coal consumption of power plants has increased [4] - **Infrastructure**: Road asphalt construction starts are at a high level compared to the same period [4] - **Downstream** - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have increased [4] - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [4] C. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price (as of 1/8) | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn (spot price) | 2248.6 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Eggs (spot price) | 6.7 yuan/kg | 3.89% | | | Palm oil (spot price) | 8600.0 yuan/ton | 1.42% | | | Cotton (spot price) | 15995.0 yuan/ton | 2.51% | | | Pork (average wholesale price) | 17.9 yuan/kg | 0.73% | | | Copper (spot price) | 102418.3 yuan/ton | 4.86% | | | Zinc (spot price) | 24158.0 yuan/ton | 3.79% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Aluminum (spot price) | 24031.7 yuan/ton | 8.28% | | | Nickel (spot price) | 149350.0 yuan/ton | 8.43% | | | Aluminum (spot price) | 17400.0 yuan/ton | 1.05% | | Ferrous Metals | Rebar (spot price) | 3255.0 yuan/ton | 0.55% | | | Iron ore (spot price) | 834.4 yuan/ton | 1.24% | | | Wire rod (spot price) | 3500.0 yuan/ton | 0.07% | | | Glass (spot price) | 12.8 yuan/sq.m | 0.63% | | Non - Metals | Natural rubber (spot price) | 15850.0 yuan/ton | 1.77% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 756.3 | 0.48% | | Energy | WTI crude oil (spot price) | 56.0 dollars/barrel | - 3.38% | | | Brent crude oil (spot price) | 60.0 dollars/barrel | - 2.23% | | | Liquefied natural gas (spot price) | 3256.0 yuan/ton | - 1.39% | | | Coal price | 796.0 yuan/ton | - 0.25% | | | PTA (spot price) | 5089.3 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | Chemical | Polyethylene (spot price) | 6573.3 yuan/ton | 2.47% | | | Urea (spot price) | 1730.0 yuan/ton | 0.29% | | | Soda ash (spot price) | 1218.6 yuan/ton | - 0.58% | | | National cement price index | 135.6 | - 0.04% | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | 116.3 points | 0.63% | | | National concrete price index | 90.4 points | 0.00% | [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the absolute price of electrolytic aluminum rises, the price drops rapidly with position reduction, and risks are released. The spot market shows signs of consumption shifting from peak to off - peak season, and attention should be paid to whether there is an unexpectedly large inventory accumulation after the price increase. The overall macro - direction has an upward expectation, but short - term price fluctuations caused by capital behavior should be watched out for [6]. - The alumina market remains in a situation of oversupply. Social inventory continues to increase, and the price lacks the impetus for continuous rise. Attention should be paid to the game between the decline in ore prices and domestic smelting production cuts. After the sentiment of non - ferrous commodities strengthens, alumina will present an opportunity for selling hedging [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 24,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 150 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 23,810 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 70 yuan/ton to - 340 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 24,030 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium changes by 85 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,350 yuan/ton, closed at 23,725 yuan/ton, a change of - 705 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,370 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,480 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 563,137 lots, and the position was 200,227 lots [2]. Inventory - As of January 8, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 714,000 tons, a change of 30,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 90,208 tons, a change of 2,278 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 499,750 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 8, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,585 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,680 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,775 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,923 yuan/ton, closed at 2,863 yuan/ton, a change of - 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 1.58%, with a maximum price of 2,948 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,826 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 1,368,469 lots, and the position was 555,607 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 8, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 64,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,988 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 312 yuan/ton [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The US plans to "sell on consignment" Venezuelan crude oil, intensifying the market's expectation of supply surplus in early 2026. Ukraine's negotiation progress may end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, causing a short - term sharp drop in oil prices. However, the situation in Iran remains tense [1]. - PX supply is expected to increase due to the high PXN, more overseas restart plans, and potential imports from arbitrage. There are many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is positive, but there are risks of increased supply and declining polyester demand [1]. - PTA's near - term devices are returning. The PTA balance sheet will see inventory reduction in December and moderate inventory accumulation in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2]. - Polyester's operating rate is 90.8% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Weaving load is declining, and there is a possibility of a sharp drop in downstream operating rates in January [2]. - PF's production profit is - 4 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to weak downstream demand, inventory is increasing [3]. - PR's spot processing fee is 458 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - term processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][22] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament profit, 1.4D physical inventory, and 1.4D equity inventory [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [74][79][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][89][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market volume remains high, but large funds control the market rhythm well. This round of the market does not follow the "crazy bull" pattern. The narrowing short - term gains do not affect the long - bull situation, and investors can actively seize investment opportunities in stock index futures [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - economic Information**: In China, the Deputy Minister of Finance, Liao Min, met with the CEO of the London Stock Exchange Group, indicating that China's economy will be stable and improving in 2025. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months. The trade deficit in October 2025 narrowed by 39% month - on - month to $29.4 billion, the lowest since June 2009 [1] - **Spot Market**: A - share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index had 15 consecutive positive lines but fell 0.07% to close at 4082.98 points on the day. The ChiNext Index fell 0.82%. Most sector indexes declined, with National Defense and Military Industry, Media, Building Decoration, and Real Estate leading the gains, while Non - Banking Finance, Non - ferrous Metals, and Communication leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 2.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.55% to 49,266.11 points and the Nasdaq falling 0.44% to 23,480.02 points [1] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of IF and IM increased simultaneously [2] 3.2 Strategy - Although the short - term gains are narrowing, it does not affect the long - bull pattern. Investors can actively seize investment opportunities in stock index futures [3] 3.3 Charts 3.3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][7][9] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,959.48, down 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3302.31, down 0.82%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4737.65, down 0.82%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3122.06, down 0.73%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7894.54, up 0.25%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7971.59, up 0.82% [12] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [6][13] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF was 119,688, an increase of 6990; the open interest was 288,744, an increase of 5981. The trading volume of IH was 44,844, a decrease of 2701; the open interest was 91,182, an increase of 937. The trading volume of IC was 147,847, a decrease of 1682; the open interest was 294,237, a decrease of 8269. The trading volume of IM was 196,014, an increase of 18,492; the open interest was 374,177, an increase of 2896 [14] - **Basis**: The basis of each contract of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the basis of IF's current - month contract was 0.15, an increase of 4.02 [40] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM also showed different changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 11.60, an increase of 0.20 [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven premium of precious metals. The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential slight rise in the demand for gold investment. The gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow again [1][8]. Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027. In terms of employment data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations, and still in a historically low range. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,103.00 yuan/kg and closed at 18,450.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,142,360 lots, and the open interest was 281,631 lots. The night session closed at 18,368 yuan/kg, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.163%, a change of +0.015% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.677%, a change of -0.1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On January 8, 2026, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,317 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,803 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 316,913 lots, a change of -2.78% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 531 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,738 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,113,931 lots, a change of -4.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,100 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On January 8, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -4.20 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -439.81 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 54.09, a change of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.46, a change of -0.49% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 48,788 kg, a change of -22.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,833,448 kg, a change of 244.04% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 3,000 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to fluctuate between 990 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,500 yuan/kg and 19,000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].