Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts support the price of gold, but the slight rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward momentum of gold and silver. The current round of gold price increase may last until the spring - summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of increase due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The incident of a Russian drone being shot down by NATO in Poland raises geopolitical risks, and the 0.1% month - on - month decline in the US August PPI strengthens the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The London gold price slightly回调 to around $3630 per ounce, waiting for the US August CPI data. The market generally expects the US August overall CPI and core CPI to increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively. Gold prices fluctuated sideways from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure, and started a new round of upward trend in early September [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, multiple factors drove the gold price to break through the $3500 mark, starting a new upward trend [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 833.34, down 0.36%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9829, up 0.04%; the Gold T + D closed at 826.50, down 0.39%; the Silver T + D closed at 9774, down 0.10% [5]. 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Event**: Poland shot down a suspected Russian drone in its airspace with the support of NATO, which is the first time a Western military alliance member has opened fire during the Russia - Ukraine war. Russia's Ministry of Defense stated that it had no intention of hitting any targets in Poland [17]. - **Trade Policy**: Mexico will raise tariffs on cars from China and other Asian countries to 50% to protect domestic employment. The EU is unlikely to impose high tariffs on India or China at Trump's request, but plans to include banks in two Central Asian countries and Chinese refineries in the 19th round of sanctions [17][18]. - **Economic Data**: The US August PPI unexpectedly dropped 0.1% month - on - month. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again based on the weak producer inflation data [17].

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is an industrial silicon daily report dated September 12, 2025, issued by the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different sectors such as crude oil, PTA/MEG, industrial silicon/polysilicon, etc [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8740 yuan/ton, up 2.46%. The trading volume was 347,619 lots, and the open interest was 287,771 lots, with a net increase of 9,706 lots [4] - Spot prices vary by region: Sichuan 553 is 8800 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 is 8550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 is 9400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 is 9300 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 is 9600 yuan/ton [4] - The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than in June. The demand increase is mainly from the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than in June. The total monthly demand is 360,000 tons. The imbalance between supply and demand persists, and the market lacks inventory reduction drivers. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating trend. The Si2511 contract had specific closing price, trading volume, open interest and its change data [4] - **Spot Prices**: Different regions have different spot prices for different grades of industrial silicon [4] - **Future Outlook**: Forecasts on production, demand, and price trends, indicating continued supply - demand imbalance and price stability with wide - range fluctuations [4] 2. Market News - On September 11, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the GZEX was 50,093 lots, a net increase of 48 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In July 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, the total exports were 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1109.6GW, and the newly added installed capacity was 223.25GW. The newly added installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the faster - than - expected news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, and the price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although there is uncertainty about the resumption of production, market sentiment improved slightly. The spot price center shifted downwards, and downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points. In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Affected by the news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 68,600. The price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although an insider said there was uncertainty about the resumption, the market sentiment improved limitedly, and the main contract barely stood above 70,000 at the end of the session. The spot price center moved down, with electric carbon dropping 1,150 to 73,450. Downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points due to rigid procurement demand during the peak season [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Australian ore dropped 45 to 805 US dollars per ton, and lithium mica ore dropped 50 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The profit of salt factories improved, with the production loss of salt factories purchasing lithium mica narrowing to 7,321 yuan per ton and that of salt factories purchasing lithium spodumene narrowing to 1,507 yuan per ton [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine, and it is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Galan Lithium's Project Progress**: Australian Galan Lithium announced that the first - phase construction of its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) lithium salt project in Argentina has made significant progress. The design of Pool 4 has been completed, which will support an operation of 4,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent. The construction of a nanofiltration plant in Sydney is in progress. The project has a mid - term goal of achieving an annual output of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially increasing to 60,000 tons in 2030 [12]. - **Ningde Times' Mine Resumption**: On September 10, it was learned that Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. held a "Jianxiawo Lithium Mine Resumption Work Meeting" on September 9 to discuss the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. The goal is to complete the resumption of production by November this year, but it is uncertain whether this goal can be achieved, and it may be adjusted according to the actual progress. Investors are advised to view market news rationally [12][13].

Report Information - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main polysilicon contract continued to oscillate weakly. The closing price of PS2511 was 51,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.40%. The trading volume was 411,979 lots, and the open interest was 137,072 lots, a net decrease of 5,908 lots [4] Outlook - The stable spot price provides rigid support for the lower limit of the futures price (the average spot price of re-feeding materials is 49,000 yuan/ton). The policy has a pulsed impact, and the market has recently entered a policy vacuum period. The futures market continued to reduce trading volume and open interest, and the number of warehouse receipts increased again. The selling pressure at high levels is obvious. After the second breakthrough failed, the futures price entered a high-level range oscillation. The market is waiting to see the follow-up policy support [4] Market News - On September 10, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,370 lots (22,110 tons), an increase of 500 lots (1,500 tons) from the previous trading day [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, the lowest in 2025 [5]

Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Core View - Geopolitical situation has not affected crude oil supply, and the market is calmer after the Israel-Iran conflict. OPEC+ continues to increase production, which is marginally bearish, so the outlook for oil prices is mainly bearish [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $61.80, closing at $62.19, with a high of $62.98, a low of $61.73, a rise of 0.93%, and a trading volume of 12.62 million lots. Brent's opening price was $66.23, closing at $66.53, with a high of $67.38, a low of $66.12, a rise of 0.77%, and a trading volume of 30.92 million lots. SC's opening price was 483 yuan/barrel, closing at 486.2 yuan/barrel, with a high of 489.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 481.9 yuan/barrel, a rise of 0.58%, and a trading volume of 10.34 million lots [6] - **News**: Israel raided Qatar to target Hamas leaders, but oil prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. OPEC+ members submitted a new compensation production cut plan, reducing this year's production cut and strengthening that of 2026, with an overall increase in the total production cut. Kazakhstan's production cut will increase sharply after February 2026, but its implementation is questionable, which is bearish for the near - term supply side. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October to gradually lift the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut agreed in April 2023. The production increase rate has slowed down, and it is expected to take one year to fully reach the 1.65 million barrels per day increase. Since the market is in a supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, the production increase is still marginally bearish for the oil market fundamentals [6][7] Industry News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that more sanctions should be imposed on Russia, including accelerating the phase - out of Russian fossil fuels and considering sanctions on the oil shadow fleet and third countries [8] - Deutsche Bank expects the WTI crude oil price to remain at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent (the previous forecast for 2026 was $67) [8] - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2025, but the downside risk due to increased market supply surplus is rising [8] - According to the Financial Times, Trump has asked the EU to impose tariffs on countries importing Russian crude oil [8] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Bloomberg, and Wind [11][12][15]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The policy-driven for industrial silicon is limited. After the rebound of spot prices, the profit of production devices turns positive, leading to continuous resumption and increase in production. The monthly output in September will exceed 400,000 tons, nearly 80,000 tons more than that in June. The demand increment is still mainly contributed by the polysilicon sector, with an expected output of 125,000 tons in September, nearly 30,000 tons more than that in June. The organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a total monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The pressure of supply-demand imbalance has not been effectively alleviated, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The spot price remains stable, and the futures price rebounds with reduced positions around 8,200, with the low-level range being tested four times and showing strong support. Overall, it continues to fluctuate widely [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The closing price of Si2511 is 8,665 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.58%. The trading volume is 622,948 lots, and the open interest is 278,065 lots, a net decrease of 7,975 lots [4]. - Spot price: The price of Sichuan 553 is 8,800 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 is 8,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia 421 is 9,400 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 is 9,150 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 is 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market News - On September 10, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,045 lots, a net increase of 90 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export volume of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.32% and a year-on-year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export volume of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - Data shows that from January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 1,109.6 GW, and the newly installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed capacity was 11 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt market remains in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price continues to fluctuate with oil prices, but the fluctuation range is expected to be lower than that of oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The BU2511 contract opened at 3,424 yuan/ton, closed at 3,450 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,457 yuan/ton, a low of 3,421 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.88%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3,372 yuan/ton, closed at 3,399 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,410 yuan/ton, a low of 3,372 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 2.34 million lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of asphalt in North China and Shandong markets increased, while those in other regions remained generally stable. Some brands had good sales, which was beneficial to the spot price of asphalt [6]. - **Supply Side**: Jiangsu Xinhai will switch production to residual oil again, but Qilu Petrochemical has switched to asphalt production since the 6th. Ningbo Keyuan and Qicheng Petrochemical will maintain stable production after resuming asphalt production. It is expected that the operating rate of asphalt plants will continue to rise [6]. - **Demand Side**: Road projects in North China and surrounding areas will start one after another, resulting in a slight increase in asphalt demand. However, the precipitation in the southern region is more than the same period of the previous year, and the rigid demand remains stable [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Industry News - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. Due to the low shipping price of refineries, the shipping volume of social warehouses in East China decreased significantly year-on-year, and the increase in trucking shipments was limited. The destocking speed of social warehouses was slow, and the price continued to be under pressure. The operating load of refineries in East China was generally high, the supply was abundant, and the mainstream trucking price range was temporarily stable [7]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt was 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous working day. After the contract price of Dongyou was raised, it was executed at 3,510 yuan/ton, still within the price range of the South China market. The rigid demand in the South China region weakened periodically, but the market still had positive expectations for the peak-season demand, and the quotes of social warehouses of traders remained stable [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily operating rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, social inventory of asphalt, factory inventory of asphalt, and asphalt warehouse receipts. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18]

Report Information - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Domestically, the downstream demand in the domestic market lacks strength, the weekly start - up of the yarn end remains stable, and the profit has not been significantly repaired. Externally, the tariff suppression effect on the export market is gradually emerging, and the cumulative year - on - year export of textiles and clothing has turned from positive to negative. [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton market has different basis quotes in different regions. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average and weaker than the same period in previous years. The price is mainly stable, with partial preferential sales. The start - up of spinning enterprises has little change, and the overall start - up level in the inland area is not high. The demand in the all - cotton grey fabric market is weakly stable, and the price of pure - cotton cloth is negotiated according to the quantity. The order volume of large - scale weaving factories is average. The home textile factories report an increase in sales volume month - on - month, but the order continuity is poor, and the price is still difficult to rise. [7] - **Overseas Market**: The weekly good - to - excellent rate of US cotton has slightly rebounded, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level with limited overall changes. Recently, affected by the heavy rain in the main cotton - producing areas of India, the external market has some support at the low level, and the market is concerned about the adjustment of the September USDA supply - demand report. [8] 2. Industry News - In August 2025, China's total textile and clothing exports were 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative total textile and clothing exports were 197.275 billion US dollars (197.616 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In August 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.393 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. From January to August 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 94.513 billion US dollars (93.042 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In August 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 14.146 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. From January to August 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 102.761 billion US dollars (104.574 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price index of Chinese cotton, spot price, futures price, basis change, spreads between different futures contracts, commercial inventory, industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [17][18][27]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 10th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 13,400 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,210 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,362 lots to 194,143 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. The slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the long term, the slaughter before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly declined, and second - fattening was mainly in a wait - and - see state, providing weak support for prices. With the start of schools in various regions and the cooling weather in some areas, terminal consumption by residents may increase. The orders of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased, the slaughter progress was faster, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises slightly increased. On September 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,700 heads, basically a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 95,000 heads [10]. Overall Situation - Spot: With the start of schools and the cooling weather, terminal demand has increased, but the supply pressure of slaughter is still relatively greater. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and prices remain weak [10]. - Futures: The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and the supply - demand margin may improve. However, the current spot supply pressure is still large, and they are mainly fluctuating weakly due to the drag of the weak spot market [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [11][13] Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of September 4th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [16]. - On the week of September 4th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin [16]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [16]. - On the week of September 5th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, an increase of 2.00 percentage points from the previous week and 5.54 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate within the week fluctuated in the range of 30.18 - 31.75 [16]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31% [16].