Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - Export being better than expected, the tightening of inter - bank funds during the tax period, and the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, leading to a full - day decline in treasury bond futures. The yield of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market increased slightly, and the funds in the money market tightened. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period, and the likelihood of further monetary easing is higher in October after the domestic economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the results of the tariff negotiations are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, the bond market is still constrained by funds [8][9][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Export being better than expected, the tightening of inter - bank funds during the tax period, and the strengthening of the A - share market led to a full - day decline in treasury bond futures [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market increased slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.6710%, up 0.5bp [9] - **Money Market**: Affected by the tax period, the money market tightened, and there was a net injection in the open market. There were 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan. Short - term inter - bank funds rates rose across the board, while medium - and long - term funds remained stable and loose [10] - **Conclusion**: The release of June data this week is expected to have limited impact on the bond market. Currently, the marginal slowdown of export rush still supports the economy, and there is no further escalation of conflicts in Sino - US tariff negotiations. It is expected that the third quarter will be a policy observation period, and the bond market is still constrained by funds. However, the central bank's early announcement of the outright reverse repurchase operation after the market may boost market sentiment [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Financial Data**: In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in the social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The central bank stated that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious [13] - **Foreign Trade Data**: In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. In June, imports, exports, and exports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [13][14] - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The market generally expects the Fed to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents the trading data of treasury bond futures on July 14, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest of various contracts [6] - **Money Market**: Relevant charts show the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report provides charts of the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The supply-demand structure of ethylene glycol (MEG) has improved, but considering the restart of MEG maintenance devices and the demand reduction during the downstream off-season, the market outlook remains cautious, and MEG prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 14th, the main MEG futures contract 2509 opened at 4305, reached a high of 4360, a low of 4303, settled at 4331, and closed at 4357, up 40 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 205,526 lots, and the open interest was 288,868 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4369, up 24, with an open interest of 17,362 lots, an increase of 1107 [7] 2. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: On Friday (July 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $68.45 per barrel, up $1.88 or 2.82% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.36 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.51% [8] - **MEG Market**: The mainstream transaction price of MEG in the Zhangjiagang market was 4375 - 4425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Dongguan market, it was around 4350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In the Fujian market, it was also around 4350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The futures price rose, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, with average actual transaction negotiations [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including MEG futures prices, spot-futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA-MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]

日期 2025 年 07 月 15 日 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.cc ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 有色金属研究团队 行业 铝日报 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 铝观点： 11 日沪铝再度转涨，主力最高至 20750，刷新四月新高，尾盘收涨 0.9%报 20700，指数总持仓增加 21546 至 690570 手，07-08 升水收窄 5 至 180。华东地区 因铝价反弹，下游企业采购情绪回落，市场零单成交下滑，现货升水持续承压， 日内华东贴水-60，中原贴水-170，华南贴水-75。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝走强，2511 收盘报 19940 涨幅 0.53%，AD-AL 负价差-510，当前处于汽车行业 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The performance of each link in the nickel industry chain is weak. The rebound of the nickel market is only a temporary phenomenon, and it is recommended to wait and see before going long [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel returned above the 120,000 integer mark, with the main contract rising 1.41%. The total open interest of the index decreased by 6,876 to 151,440 lots [8]. - In the off - season of demand, the spot trading of refined nickel is average. Enterprises purchase on demand, and the spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium - discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8]. - The support from the ore end weakens, and the premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore declines. There is a risk of price decline in the follow - up, and the concern about the supply side eases [8]. - The price of high - nickel ferrochrome runs at a low level. On the 10th, the average price was 905 yuan/nickel point. The loss of ferrochrome plants intensified, and some decreased production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of stainless steel terminals, so steel mills are sluggish, and the support for ferrochrome is weak [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,420. Some enterprises reduced production to support prices due to losses, but the demand for new - energy batteries is in the off - season, so the support for nickel sulfate is limited, and it is mainly weak [8]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far less than the approved quota of 364.1 million tons from January to June. The main reason was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in biodiesel blending ratio, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which significantly reduced the silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK enhance the resilience of the power system [11].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对巴西对等关税税率从 10%提高到 50%，关 税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求；美联储会议纪要显示大部分官员认为关 税政策带来的通胀压力将是暂时的；因此今年晚些时候将重启降息进程，美联储 降息预期再次升温并打压美元汇率和提振贵金属价格，伦敦黄金反弹至 3330 美元 /盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险 需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The price increase at the beginning of July in the spot market was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2200 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. The peak - season price increase is expected to materialize, and the 08 contract has upward potential. For the 10 - month contract (a traditional off - season), high - short opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: At the beginning of July, the price increase was better than expected. The SCFIS settlement index rose above 2200 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were $3000, slightly higher than the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. The 8 - month quotes from most airlines are yet to be reported, and it's necessary to watch if other airlines will follow HPL's price [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover. With good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the 08 contract has upward potential. For the 10 - month traditional off - season, focus on high - short opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices [8] 2. Industry News - **Market Conditions from June 30 to July 4**: The China export container shipping market was stable, with long - haul routes showing a differentiated trend. The composite index continued to adjust. China's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI remained above the boom - bust line [9] - **European Routes**: The eurozone's May unemployment rate was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The EU - US tariff negotiation has uncertain prospects. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak. The spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The order and employment indices shrank further. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2089/FEU and $4124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [10] - **Geopolitical Events**: On July 6, the Houthi armed forces launched ballistic missiles at Israel. On June 21, Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear facilities, but Iran said the damage was not as serious as claimed. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz [10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From June 30 to July 7, the Shanghai - Europe basic port SCFIS rose 6.3% from 2123.24 to 2258.04, while the Shanghai - US West basic port SCFIS fell 3.8% from 1619.19 to 1557.77 [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2508, EC2510 on July 10, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][18]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report was slightly bearish as the unexpected decline in exports in June exceeded the decrease in production and the increase in domestic consumption, causing the palm oil inventory to rise for the fourth consecutive month. The market did not expect such a significant drop in exports, with a 10.52% month - on - month decline in June. However, due to Malaysia's reduction in export tariffs in July, exports may increase, and strong exports limit the market decline. The upward space for palm oil is limited, and short - selling opportunities near the resistance level are worth attention [8]. - The market is waiting to see if the visit of the Australian Prime Minister to China will involve changes in rapeseed trade policies. For soybean oil, the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand. The 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil has dropped significantly to a technically oversold level and may recover [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market prices: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes are Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 and first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In South China, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - Oil and fat comments: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase. The report was slightly bearish. Due to the reduction of export tariffs in July, exports may increase. AmSpec data showed a 12% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports from July 1 - 10. The upward space for palm oil is limited. The market is waiting for news on rapeseed trade policies. Soybean oil supply is loose, and the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil may recover [8]. 2. Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 was 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 79,300 tons from May, a 4.48% month - on - month decline. Imports were 70,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from May, a 1.51% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.2594 million tons, a decrease of 148,100 tons from May, a 10.52% month - on - month decline. The end - of - month inventory was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase [9]. - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 51.5 bushels per acre. If the weather remains favorable, the yield may be further adjusted upwards [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][22][24][29][30]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 11 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...