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建信期货多晶硅日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, with a consensus on price support from policies and enterprises. In the short - term, the industry lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement. The supply - demand situation will remain loose, and the profit of the industrial chain has concentrated on the polysilicon end. The futures price will operate within the range of the spot price [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract showed a strong trend. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,895 yuan/ton, with a 2.93% increase. The trading volume was 330,316 lots, and the open interest was 143,043 lots, with a net increase of 13,966 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The transaction price range of n - type polysilicon re - feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The spot price of polysilicon will continue to be stable. In the short - term, the industry lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement. The production of silicon materials in November and December is expected to remain at 120,000 tons, and the production of silicon wafers and solar cells is stable. The supply - demand will remain loose. The weak terminal demand pressure is gradually transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and components continued to decline this week, which also hinders the price increase of silicon materials. There is no actual positive news from the policy side, but the official and enterprise consensus is to emphasize stability. The futures price will operate within the range of the spot price [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 25, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,270 lots, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and all relevant work is progressing steadily. The rumors on the Internet are false information. The association will fight against malicious short - selling and other bad behaviors [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimated that the production in November was about 118,000 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch said that the industrial chain has reached an implicit consensus that if the polysilicon price continues to decline, it may lead to the collapse of the entire industrial chain price system, so enterprises are determined to stabilize the price [5].
建信期货纸浆日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:22
行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅多晶硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回 ...
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:21
Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash continues its weak pattern of supply - demand imbalance. In the short - term, it will experience bottom - grinding oscillations, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may be treated with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [8] - The current glass price has limited room to decline further. The mid - term market direction is still dominated by fundamentals. Without new market expectations, the downward trend of the market is difficult to reverse [9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 26, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 oscillated at a low level. The closing price was 1,175 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with a daily reduction of 27,403 lots in positions [7] - Soda ash maintains a weak supply - demand imbalance. Although weekly production and operating rates have declined, the absolute output remains high. Downstream float glass has a weak supply - demand situation, and the terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand show no significant improvement. Cost supports prices, but high inventory restricts price increases [8] Glass - On the fundamental side, the spot performance is lower than market expectations. The impact of the concentrated production suspension in Shahe is less than expected. Supply is stable, inventory remains high after the holiday, and demand from the real estate market is weak. However, as industry profits decline, cold - repairs are accelerating. If 5,000 tons of production lines are cold - repaired by the end of the year, inventory can be reduced, and a new supply - demand balance can be achieved. The glass price is currently undervalued, with limited room for further decline [9] 2. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [13][17][18]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market of polyolefins opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices were weak due to cautious trading sentiment. The supply may increase week - on - week, while the demand is at the end of the peak season with slow follow - up orders. With the easing of geopolitical risks, crude oil prices declined, and the polyolefin market is under pressure with a weak downward price trend [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The plastic L2601 contract closed at 6,707 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan/ton (-1.31%), with an increase in open interest. The PP2601 contract closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan (-1.42%), with a decrease in open interest. The supply may increase week - on - week as the restarted plants' load - up is slow and there is no new maintenance this week. The demand is at the end of the peak season, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakening. Crude oil prices are under pressure due to potential inventory build - up, and the polyolefin market is facing cost and fundamental pressures [3][4] 3.2 Industry News - On November 26, 2025, the major producers' inventory was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-4.38%) from the previous workday, compared with 605,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices were weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6,720 - 7,000 yuan/ton, 6,900 - 7,300 yuan/ton, and 6,980 - 7,350 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market rose 50 yuan/ton to 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton, putting pressure on PP costs. The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices loosening by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6,140 - 6,320 yuan/ton, 6,240 - 6,430 yuan/ton, and 6,330 - 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [5] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures including L and PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and its year - on - year change amplitude, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [7][10][14]
建信期货沥青日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:21
Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The oil price has no support, the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, the basis has significantly narrowed, and the market will mainly move in a volatile manner [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3043 yuan/ton, the highest was 3068 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3024 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.56%, and the trading volume was 18.79 million lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3046 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3037 yuan/ton, the highest was 3060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3022 yuan/ton, the daily change was -0.78%, and the trading volume was 8.55 million lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of asphalt in Shandong continued to decline, while prices in other regions remained generally stable. Yangzi Petrochemical has no plan to resume asphalt production after a brief restart. Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical all plan to resume asphalt production, and the asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rebound slightly. Cold air has affected most parts of China again, with road demand in the Northeast and Northwest stagnant, but there is still rush - construction demand in Shandong and other regions, and demand is expected to remain stable [6] 2. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 2960 - 3470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply of asphalt spot resources in the Shandong market is abundant, some refineries are eager to sell contracts to preempt market demand in advance, and the quotes of some brand resources by traders have been lowered, leading to a continued downward trend in prices [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70A asphalt was 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The demand in the East China market continued to be weak and stable, the social inventory shipments were stable and the inventory decreased, and the overall inventory of refineries also decreased as some refineries had previously shut down. However, the asphalt production of Zhenhai and Jinling was large at the end of the month, the overall market supply was abundant, and the truck - transportation price of the main refinery in Ningbo was lowered today, so the price in the East China market is expected to decline [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][22]
建信期货原油日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:21
行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:21
工业硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...
建信期货国债日报-20251126
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:18
行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 26 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) | | | 表1:国债期货11月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.720 | 115.600 | 115.320 | 115.460 | -0.400 | -0.35 | 45123 | 32229 | -15079 | | TL2603 | 115.540 | 115.380 | 115.160 | 115.280 | -0.380 | -0.33 | 123788 | 135646 | 16728 | | TL2606 | 115.610 | 115.550 | 115.310 | ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251126
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:38
行业 鸡蛋 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 日期 2025 年 11 月 26 日 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251126
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:38
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The spot SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. Shorting is not cost-effective. Pay attention to the possibility that the off-season April contract may be overvalued, and focus on the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rose 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes are the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Pay attention to the actual implementation of cargo volume and price increases [8] - Operation suggestions: Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may conduct incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. Shorting is not cost-effective. Pay attention to the possibility that the off-season April contract may be overvalued, and focus on the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 2. Industry News - From November 17th to November 21st, the China Export Container Transport Market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the long-haul routes showed an adjustment trend, with the comprehensive index declining. On November 21st, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index was 1393.56 points, a 4.0% decrease from the previous period [9] - European routes: The initial value of the eurozone's consumer confidence index in November was -14.2, lower than market expectations, indicating that consumers remain cautious about the economic outlook and consumer demand is still suppressed. The recovery prospects of the European economy still face challenges. This week, the shipping demand lacked further growth momentum, and the spot market booking prices declined. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) was $1367/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean routes: The supply-demand fundamentals are slightly better than those of European routes, and the market freight rates increased slightly. On November 21st, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) was $2055/TEU, a 1.3% increase from the previous period [9] - North American routes: Due to the US government shutdown, the US September non-farm payrolls report was postponed to this week. The number of new jobs in September was 119,000, better than market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. The weak performance of the employment market indicates that the future US economic outlook is not optimistic. This week, the shipping demand growth was weak, and the market freight rates continued to decline. On November 21st, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and US East (ocean freight and ocean freight surcharges) were $1645/FEU and $2384/FEU respectively, a 9.8% and 8.3% decrease from the previous period [10] - Middle East situation: After Israel launched an air strike on Gaza, Hamas threatened to end the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli Defense Forces and Shin Bet carried out a coordinated operation in the Gaza Strip, targeting senior Hamas members involved in major attacks, maritime infiltration, tunnel construction, and hostage-taking. The US has informed mediators and partner countries preparing to join the Gaza International Stabilization Force that if Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel will be allowed to resume military operations. The Israeli military carried out multiple air strikes in Lebanon, and the situation may continue to escalate [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | November 24, 2025 | November 17, 2025 | Change | Week-on-Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | +281.7 | +20.7% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 1107.85 | 1238.42 | -130.57 | -10.5% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1,779.7 | 1,792.3 | 1,650.0 | 1,697.4 | -129.7 | -7.29% | 6884 | 6454 | -408 | | EC2602 | 1,576.2 | 1,590.0 | 1,453.5 | 1,501.8 | -122.7 | -7.78% | 51412 | 48279 | 4946 | | EC2604 | 1,141.0 | 1,159.0 | 1,126.4 | 1,140.2 | -14.6 | -1.28% | 5004 | 17016 | 920 | | EC2606 | 1,363.9 | 1,378.4 | 1,338.0 | 1,354.1 | -25.9 | -1.90% | 272 | 1629 | 95 | | EC2608 | 1,481.1 | 1,498.0 | 1,464.0 | 1,471.6 | -17.1 | -1.15% | 171 | 1399 | 74 | | EC2610 | 1,108.1 | 1,113.0 | 1,108.0 | 1,111.3 | -0.1 | -0.01% | 563 | 2556 | 65 | [6] 3.3 Shipping-related Data Charts - The report provides charts on European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][21]