Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint On December 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed a volatile and upward trend. Considering that the export of steel products has significantly decreased this year, the impact of export license management on some steel mills is expected to be limited. The support from the raw material end has reappeared. Although the spot price of coke is about to decline for the third consecutive round, the iron ore price has rebounded to the level of late November, which is of great significance for stabilizing the price center of steel products. The previous investment strategy of selling on rallies needs to be adjusted in a timely manner. The steel market may experience a certain degree of restorative rebound in the future [6][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis**: On December 22, the prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets increased. The prices of rebar in Hangzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, Kunming, Guiyang, and Lanzhou rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Jinan decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coil in Hangzhou, Wuxi, Changchun, and Chengdu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil continued to rise in a divergent manner. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2605 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days, approaching a golden cross [8]. - **Future Outlook**: On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, announcing the implementation of export license management for some steel products, which will help enhance China's pricing power for high-end steel products globally, track trade flows, standardize export order, and improve industry efficiency and product competitiveness. Fundamentally, the supply and demand have been weak recently. The production of the five major steel products reached a new low since September last year, the social inventory has further decreased to a new low since the end of January, and the weekly consumption reached a new low since mid-October and the second lowest since mid-September. Affected by the continuous production cuts of steel mills, the cost of steel products has first decreased and then increased since late November, showing an overall downward trend. In terms of raw materials, the port iron ore inventory has reached a new high of 155 million tons since April 2022, while steel mills have chosen to further reduce their inventory. The total inventory of imported ore of 247 sample steel mills has decreased to 87.24 million tons, a decrease of 13.1% compared with the beginning of October. In the past two weeks, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly decreased and reached a new low since May last year. However, the decline in coking coal prices has led to continuous profitability of coking enterprises for 5 weeks, and the third round of price cuts for coke spot is about to be implemented. Recently, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. On December 4, the 10-day moving average of the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 160,000 tons again, and further increased to 193,000 tons on December 13, an increase of 17.4% compared with the average since late November [9][10]. 3.2 Industry News - Multiple government departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining and seal up abandoned mines [12]. - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% [12]. - As of December 15, the annual cumulative production of commercial coal by Zhunneng Group has exceeded the annual plan by 859,400 tons [12]. - Chongqing Iron and Steel plans to issue A-shares to specific investors, raising a maximum of 1 billion yuan [12]. - China Shenhua plans to acquire relevant assets worth 133.598 billion yuan [12]. - Western Mining's subsidiary has obtained a mining license for an iron polymetallic ore [12]. - Huaihe Energy states that its coal-fired power units are mainly supplied by long-term contracts and some market coal, and there is no plan to purchase coal from Mongolia and Indonesia [12]. - Huafu Securities predicts that coal supply will decline in 2026, and the overall coal market will improve. The central price of thermal coal is expected to rise to 770 yuan, and the central price of coking coal will stabilize at the bottom [12]. - As of December 18, the cumulative import and export freight volume of the Ganqimaodu Port has reached a record high, with significant growth in the import of copper concentrate powder, manganese ore, and the export of goods [12]. - In November 2025, China's coal exports increased year-on-year and month-on-month, while the import of coking coal decreased year-on-year and the import of thermal coal decreased year-on-year [12]. - China has requested consultations with India on its tariff measures for information and communication products and photovoltaic subsidy measures at the WTO [12]. - In November 2025, the iron ore export volume of Port Hedland decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, but the cumulative export volume from January to November increased year-on-year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides data charts on the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the inventory of the five major steel products in steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and the May contracts [16][17][18].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of eggs is expected to fluctuate slightly, with neither significant downward nor upward trends. The futures market has already priced in the expected increase in egg prices due to a decline in next year's inventory. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to adjust sufficiently before entering the market and adopt a rolling operation strategy. Near - month contracts may experience low - level fluctuations in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the spot price increase in January [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Pre - settlement Price | Open Price | High Price | Low Price | Close Price | Change | Change Percentage | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601 | 3068 | 3056 | 3077 | 3041 | 3049 | - 19 | - 0.62% | 25852 | 47063 | 10016 | | 2602 | 2902 | 2888 | 2918 | 2884 | 2888 | - 14 | - 0.48% | 141072 | 186319 | - 1370 | | 2603 | 2952 | 2950 | 2969 | 2936 | 2948 | - 4 | - 0.14% | 81349 | 176767 | 2185 | [7] - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas is 2.98 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas is 3.30 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 01 contract fell 0.62% [8]. Operation Suggestions - For far - month contracts, since the current pricing is relatively full, it is recommended that long - position investors wait for full adjustment and adopt a rolling operation strategy. For near - month contracts (02, 03), due to insufficient topics and the fact that the positive impact of the inventory inflection point is not obvious, they may experience low - level fluctuations in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the spot price increase in January [8]. 3.2 Industry News Inventory - As of the end of November 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous growth. However, compared with the same period last year (1.284 billion), the year - on - year increase was still 5.3%, indicating significant pressure on the supply side [9]. Replenishment - In November 2025, the monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly increasing from 39.15 million in October but a significant decrease of 13.5% compared with 45.69 million in the same period in 2024. The total replenishment in the past 4 months (August - November 2025) was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9]. 3.3 Data Overview Elimination Volume - As of December 18, the national elimination volume of laying hens in the previous three weeks was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous downward trend [17]. Elimination Age - As of December 18, the average elimination age of laying hens was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [17].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 23030 | 23085 | 23125 | 22965 | 75 | 0.33 | 40726 | -6083 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term external market has insufficient bullish factors and may test the support at 1050 cents. Considering the reduced pressure on the new - season ending inventory, there is expected to be some support at the bottom [6]. - In the domestic market, the increase in auction frequency and high port soybean inventory lead to insufficient bullish factors. The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. It is not advisable for bulls to buy the dip for now. Potential bullish factors are changes in South American weather and the USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is no driving force at present [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The 12 - month supply - demand report was mediocre. China has purchased over 765 tons of US soybeans as of mid - December, and it is not difficult to complete the 1200 - ton purchase target. However, other countries have shifted to Brazil, and the current US soybean export sales are nearly 40% lower than the same period last year. In South America, Brazil's new - season rainfall is good, and most major producing states have no severe drought problems. Argentina is in the late sowing stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The increase in auction frequency makes it difficult for the soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the port soybean inventory is at a relatively high level [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The futures market is expected to be weaker than the external market in the short term, with a need for a supplementary decline. Bulls should not buy the dip for now [6]. 3.2 Industry News - In Brazil, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul has reached 76% of the expected 6.74 million hectares, lower than last year's 80% and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase from the previous year [7]. - In Argentina, as of December 11, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the soybean meal 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [14][17][18].

1. Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded slightly by 5.2% to 1589.2 points this week, and the price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented. There is still an upward expectation for the price increase in late January, and the February contract may have some upward space. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season and positive spread trading opportunities between 02 and 04 contracts [8]. - The overall situation of China's export container shipping market was stable from December 15th to 19th, with the comprehensive index rising. China's export shows strong resilience, but the economic prospects of Europe and the US face challenges [9]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The SCFIS index rose 5.2% to 1589.2 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented, with full cabins in the second - last week of December and some voyages over - booked. CMA CGM announced a price increase for January on the Asia - Europe route, but the actual price increase implementation was less than the announced level. There may be an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping season, and there is still an expectation for a price increase in late January [8]. - Operation suggestions: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the April contract during the off - season and positive spread trading opportunities between 02 and 04 contracts [8]. 4.2行业要闻 - Market situation from December 15th to 19th: China's export container shipping market was stable overall, with the comprehensive index rising. China's export showed strong resilience, but the economic prospects of Europe and the US were not optimistic. The European route's freight rate declined slightly, the Mediterranean route's freight rate rose, and the North American route's freight rate continued to rise [9][10]. - Shipping company announcements: Multiple shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd announced price increases or PSS adjustments for various routes [10]. - Geopolitical news: The Israeli military killed several Hamas members. The armed militants in Rafah tunnels are still in direct contact with the Hamas military leadership. Maersk's statement on resuming Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation was "clarified" [10]. 4.3数据概览 4.3.1集运现货价格 - SCFIS: The European route index rose 5.2% to 1589.2 points, and the US West route index rose 4.1% to 962.1 points from December 15th to 22nd [12]. 4.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - Transaction data of container shipping futures on the European line on December 18th: Contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc. showed different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, EC2602 had a significant price increase of 8.77% [6]. 4.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - Various shipping - related data charts are provided, including container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, etc. [17][18][20]

1. Report Information - Report Title: MEG Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 3. Core View - Currently, the overall performance of the ethylene glycol supply - demand and cost side is weak, and the inventory at import ports is gradually increasing. There is insufficient support in the spot market. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will maintain a low - level fluctuation in the short term [7]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main contract of ethylene glycol futures opened at 3,753 yuan/ton, with a high of 3,762 yuan/ton, a low of 3,710 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 3,736 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3,735 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 207,007 lots, and the open interest was 312,782 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 3,640 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan, with an open interest of 83,994 lots, a decrease of 9,611 lots. The EG2605 contract closed at 3,735 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan, with an open interest of 312,782 lots, an increase of 9,688 lots [7]. 4.2. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: Fears of a possible US blockade on oil tankers from a South American country and waiting for news on a possible peace agreement between a European country and Ukraine led to a continued rise in crude oil futures in Europe and the US. On Friday (December 19), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil January 2026 futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.66 per barrel, up $0.51 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.82 - $56.90. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil February 2026 futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.47 per barrel, up $0.65 or 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.40 - $60.65 [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol Spot Market**: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market on Thursday, the spot (December delivery) was negotiated at 3,606 - 3,608 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Negotiations for delivery before January 9 were at 3,626 - 3,630 yuan/ton, and for January delivery were at 3,641 - 3,646 yuan/ton. The spot (December delivery) basis was at a discount of 6 - 8 yuan/ton to EG2601, the basis for delivery before January 9 had a premium of 12 - 16 yuan/ton to EG2601, and the basis for January delivery had a premium of 27 - 32 yuan/ton to EG2601. The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang market was 3,595 - 3,635 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ethylene glycol futures market fluctuated weakly, and the spot price decreased slightly. Downstream customers' inquiries were cautious, and actual trading was relatively light [8]. 4.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18].

Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 23, 2025 - Industry: Pig industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. Second - round fattening and pig retention in October have increased supply pressure before the Spring Festival. The overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal, with a planned December slaughter of 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase [9]. - On the demand side, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December. Cold weather has increased demand for curing and enema, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises have slightly decreased [9]. - Policy - wise, the anti - dumping tax on imported pork and pig by - products from the EU has a limited impact due to the low proportion compared to domestic consumption [9]. - Overall, the spot market will likely fluctuate due to increased supply and demand, with weakened demand after the Winter Solstice. The futures market will face double supply pressure from second - round fattening in October and continuous capacity release, putting pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, prices have dropped significantly compared to last year, and the increase in northern epidemics has made bottom - end fluctuations more frequent [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures market**: On the 22nd, the main 2603 pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing up 0.49% at 11,345 yuan/ton. The total index position decreased by 8,417 lots to 346,875 lots [8]. - **Spot market**: On the 22nd, the national average price of三元 pigs was 11.43 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Slaughter volume**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned December slaughter volume is 27.72 million heads, a 4.64% monthly increase and a 1.27% daily increase [13]. - **Piglet price**: The average market price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13]. - **Profit and cost**: As of December 18, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 119.8 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig fattened from purchased piglets was - 238.2 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week, while the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter was 11.42 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13]. - **Average slaughter weight**: As of the week of December 18, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg from last week (a 0.42% weekly increase), up 1.37 kg from last month (a 1.06% monthly increase), and down 0.50 kg from the same period last year (a 0.38% annual decrease) [13].

研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 郑棉走势偏强。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15154 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 9 元/吨。当前 2025/26 南北疆机采 31~41 级/双 29/杂 3 内一口价报价 较多在 14900~15100 公定不等，少量低于 14900，同品质喀什地区低 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term fundamentals are neutral. The market has temporarily digested the US sanctions on Venezuela, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In the medium term, there is still a possibility of a decline due to supply pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rebounds [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $55.90, closing at $56.54, with a high of $56.72, a low of $55.61, a daily increase of 0.96%, and a trading volume of 19.93 million lots. Brent's opening price was $59.40, closing at $60.12, with a high of $60.23, a low of $59.11, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 27.5 million lots. SC's opening price was 428.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 437.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 2.46%, and a trading volume of 8.19 million lots [6] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The US has strengthened sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types from Russia or Iran. Venezuela's export difficulties have a greater impact on China's asphalt market [6] - **Weekly Data**: Crude oil inventories continued to decline, and refinery crude input reached the highest level in the same period in five years. However, refined oil products performed relatively weakly, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing, which is not conducive to maintaining high refinery operating rates. The data is neutral [6] - **Medium - term Outlook**: Crude oil supply surplus will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rebounds [7] Group 5: Industry News - US intelligence shows no signs that Iran is about to attack Israel [8] - Another oil tanker, the "Bella 1", was seized by the US near Venezuela. This follows the seizure of the "Century" on Saturday morning and the "Skipper" on December 10 [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Last week, the bond market recovered due to rising expectations of easing. However, this week, the disappointment of LPR cuts and the pending public fund new regulations have cooled the bullish sentiment in the bond market again. Coupled with the potential pressure of the stock market's Spring Festival rally on the bond market, there are many short - term negative factors for the bond market. But the cross - year capital situation is expected to remain loose, supporting the long - end. It is advisable to pay attention to the strategy of shorting the long - end and going long on the short - end to steepen the yield curve [11]. - Long - term: After continuous adjustments in the bond market, current interest rates have returned to reasonable pricing. The deviation from policy rates is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, indicating that the market is not pricing in next year's interest rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to the spot market. With the weak economic fundamentals remaining unchanged, there is room for easing next year. When the expectation of easing rises at the beginning of next year, there is significant upside potential for long - end futures varieties [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation on the Day**: LPR remained stable, the expectation of easing was dashed, and the strong performance of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Spot Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market rose across the board. The increase in the long - end active bonds was less than 1bp. As of 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.8435%, up 0.85bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The inter - bank funding market was loose, and cross - year funds were stable. There were 2509 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 673 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1836 billion yuan. The decline of the inter - bank funding sentiment index indicated the relief of funding pressure. The overnight and 7 - day funding rates declined slightly. The 14 - day cross - year rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.6%, medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **LPR**: The LPR quotation in December remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (the same as last time), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% (the same as last time) [13]. - **国务院 Meeting**: The State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, required to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans, and ensure a good start for the "15th Five - Year Plan". It also deployed a comprehensive solid waste treatment action and reviewed and approved the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft)" [13]. - **Automobile Market**: According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, the total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in December is expected to be around 2.3 million units, a slight month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle retail sales can reach around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [13]. - **Local Bonds**: Jiangsu Province is expected to issue 105.6 billion yuan of local bonds in the first quarter of next year, including 70 billion yuan of new bonds and 35.6 billion yuan of refinancing bonds. As of December 19, 7 regions including Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Jilin have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter of next year, with a total bond issuance scale of 657.712 billion yuan [13]. - **Real Estate**: The policy thinking of the real estate industry has changed from short - term "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to medium - and long - term "stabilizing the market". Some cities have shown a positive trend of stabilizing and improving. Relevant departments in Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen and other places have jointly rectified real estate accounts and self - media to strengthen industry management [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Includes information such as the trading data summary of treasury bond futures on December 22, the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different terms and varieties, and the trend of main contracts [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Involves the changes in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the interest rate of pledged repurchase between banks and depositors, the term structure and trend of SHIBOR [26][31]. - **Derivatives Market**: Covers the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].