行业 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak and stable operation. The futures price is in a weak and volatile pattern, and the spot price remains weak and stable. The supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and the fundamentals lack improvement expectations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%. The trading volume was 306,942 lots, the open interest was 221,606 lots, with a net increase of 11,733 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,020 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 12,218 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price declined slightly. The Sichuan 553 price was 9,200 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton; the Sichuan 421 price was 9,900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The southwest production area has fulfilled the seasonal production reduction expectation, and the room for further production decline is limited, with the monthly expected output at 360,000 tons. On the demand side, the production reduction and load - shedding of polysilicon have led to a decline in monthly output to around 110,000 tons. The operating rate of silicone enterprises has rebounded, and there is no sustainability in centralized and large - scale production reduction. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The current industrial inventory has reached 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.40%; the futures inventory is 45,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures price has weakened and is at a discount, resulting in insufficient motivation for inventory return. The fundamentals lack improvement expectations, the spot price remains weak and stable, the basis repair rebound has ended, and the resistance to the rebound is decreasing marginally. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3.4 Market News - On December 22, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,019 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. - In the third week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 462,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 28.25%. - The silicone DMC market remained stable, with the current DMC quotation at 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Although the terminal demand has not shown a substantial recovery, the mentality of middle and downstream enterprises has improved marginally, and moderate restocking in the market has provided support. It is expected that the silicone market will rise steadily in the short term. - The polysilicon spot price has generally stabilized, and enterprises are determined to support prices, with individual enterprises raising their quotations. The downstream's willingness to purchase polysilicon is low, and it is difficult to see an increase in demand in the short term. The polysilicon inventory continues to increase slowly, and the inventory pressure has further suppressed the trading activity in the现货 market. It is expected that the polysilicon spot trading price will probably remain stable in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Previous settlement price 8336, opening price 8256, highest price 8422, lowest price 8230, closing price 8414, up 18, increase 0.94%, trading volume 431457, open interest 452542, change -689 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 8320, opening price 8240, highest price 8406, lowest price 8230, closing price 8400, up 80, increase 0.96%, trading volume 25444, open interest 56436, change -5472 [7] - Y2605: Previous settlement price 7728, opening price 7714, highest price 1116, lowest price 7680, closing price 1112, up 44, increase 0.57%, trading volume 238786, open interest 658590, change -9833 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 7956, opening price 7912, highest price 8016, lowest price 7912, closing price 8002, up 46, increase 0.58%, trading volume 42026, open interest 55188, change -15386 [7] - O1605: Previous settlement price 8823, opening price 8744, highest price 8892, lowest price 8712, closing price 8864, up 41, increase 0.46%, trading volume 281355, open interest 200067, change -8112 [7] - OI601: Previous settlement price 9013, opening price 8949, highest price 9066, lowest price 8893, closing price 9044, up 31, increase 0.34%, trading volume 16933, open interest 18383, change -3661 [7] Market Analysis - Intra - day oil and fat closed with a positive line, palm oil stopped falling and rebounded first. The rebound of CBOT soybeans and crude oil boosted the domestic oil and fat market [8] - Malaysian high - frequency data showed that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline in southern Malaysia from December 1 - 20 expanded, providing support for the palm oil market [8] - Rumors of the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the continued decline of domestic soybean oil inventory made the basis of soybean oil strong, and the futures price had strong support at the current position [8] - Rapeseed oil was considered to have a lower valuation due to the record global rapeseed production and the contraction of Canadian exports affected by Chinese tariffs, and was generally used as a short - side allocation in arbitrage [8] Operation Suggestions - Futures prices may have an oversold rebound, but caution should be exercised regarding the height of the unilateral upward movement. In arbitrage, long positions in palm oil and soybean oil and short positions in rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of December 17, the sowing of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean crop was 67.3% complete, up from 58.6% a week ago. 93% of the sown soybeans were rated normal to excellent, and 92% of the bean fields had suitable to optimal moisture. 6.2% of the soybeans had entered the early flowering stage, and the sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 40.6% of the intended area [9] - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 851057 tons, up 2.4% from 831005 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, down 4000 tons from the previous month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17% [16] - AmSpec data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821442 tons, down 0.9% from 828680 tons in the same period of November [16] - SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 676674 tons, up 43.6% from 471222 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 83,000 tons, up 45,000 tons from the previous month [16] - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 851057 tons, up 2.4% from 831005 tons in the same period of November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, down 4000 tons from the previous month [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental aspect is not the main logic for futures trading. Futures funds are still speculating on the positive impact of the reserve platform on capacity constraints. The exchange has continuously taken measures to send out stabilizing signals. In the short - term, the market will continue to run cautiously and strongly, with short - term support around 58,000 yuan. Spot enterprises have price - raising actions, but market transactions are light. The expected output of polysilicon in December is 110,000 - 120,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 60GW. However, the production of intermediate silicon wafers and battery cells will be lower than that of polysilicon, and the terminal demand is still in a weak stage after the "rush - to - install" period [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. The trading volume was 213,280 lots, and the open interest was 134,949 lots, a net decrease of 4,238 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 237 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 2,098 lots [4]. 3.2. Spot Price - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3. Market News - On December 22, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,660 lots, remaining the same as the previous trading day. Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. completed its registration, marking the official establishment of the long - awaited "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - pronged approach" model, operating under a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" through market - oriented and legal mechanisms [5].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to factors such as the year - end consumption peak season, the Fed's loose monetary policy, and the improvement of the global growth outlook, the precious metals sector, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Investors are advised to take a long - biased approach in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their position sizes. Attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, as well as the US third - quarter GDP data this week [4]. - In the medium - term (2026), the accelerating restructuring of the global political and economic system and abundant monetary liquidity will support the continued strong performance of gold prices. However, Trump 2.0's new policies and the decrease in the intensity of the China - US game will restrain the upward momentum of gold prices. London gold is expected to rise to the range of $4800 - 5000 per ounce. With the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, silver, which has stronger industrial attributes and higher volatility, will gain greater upward momentum. London silver is expected to rise to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce, and the London gold - silver ratio is expected to drop to around 65. Platinum's substitution for gold and silver in consumption and investment demand will continue, with London platinum expected to rise to $2000 - 2100 per ounce, and the London gold - platinum ratio expected to drop to around 2.4. Palladium will basically follow the trend of gold, with an annual increase target of $1620 - 1700 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - biased approach, short - hedgers should reduce the hedging ratio, and conservative investors can consider the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Geopolitical risks, such as the increased US military operations in the offshore area of Venezuela over the weekend, have pushed up precious metal prices and international oil prices. The market is also concerned about the potential impact of the new nominee for the Fed Chair. On Monday, the precious metals sector continued to perform strongly, and London gold reached a new high after two months of sideways adjustment [4]. - Domestic precious metals showed significant increases. The intraday increase of the Shanghai Gold Index was 2.10%, the Shanghai Silver Index was 5.42%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index was 6.52%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index was 5.87% [5]. Medium - term Market - Forecasts for 2026: London gold to $4800 - 5000 per ounce; London silver to $73.5 - 77.5 per ounce with a gold - silver ratio of around 65; London platinum to $2000 - 2100 per ounce with a gold - platinum ratio of around 2.4; London palladium to $1620 - 1700 per ounce [5]. - Trading strategies: Long - biased approach for investors, reducing the hedging ratio for short - hedgers, and considering the arbitrage opportunity of long silver and platinum and short gold for conservative investors [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Regarding the Fed's stance, different officials have different views. New York Fed President Williams believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates again, Fed Governor Milan advocates for a rate cut, Cleveland Fed President Hamark thinks there is no need to adjust interest rates in the next few months, and White House economic advisor and Fed Chair candidate Hassett agrees with Trump's view that inflation is very low [17]. - US military actions near Venezuela: The US Coast Guard is pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela. Trump still believes there is a possibility of war with Venezuela, but the White House claims that US citizens don't need to worry about oil price increases [17]. - China's trade data: In November, China's rare - earth magnet exports significantly rebounded, reaching a 10 - month high. Exports to Japan reached a record high, and those to the EU were the second - highest on record, while exports to the US declined. China's soybean imports in November reached the highest level in the same period in four years, with imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay hitting record highs in the same period, but there was zero import of US soybeans for the third consecutive month, setting a record for the longest period of zero imports [18].

021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is difficult for India to export, and the raw sugar is in a sideways shock. The domestic sugar price may bottom out in the short - term due to the support at the 5000 mark and downstream procurement for the Spring Festival [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Market**: On Friday, the New York raw sugar futures rebounded. The main March contract rose 2.56% to 14.85 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures' main March contract rose 2.3% to $425.50 per ton. India plans to boost sugar exports, but the current international sugar price makes it difficult to achieve [7] - **Domestic Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. The 05 contract closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, up 49 yuan or 0.95%, with a reduction of 9,688 positions. The new domestic sugar price was lowered. The fundamentals remained unchanged, with ample spot supply suppressing the sugar price. After the futures fell below 5,100, short - selling funds stopped suppressing the 05 contract, and downstream manufacturers began to stock up at low prices, so the sugar price may bottom out in the short - term [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - **Philippines**: The Philippines will extend the sugar import ban until December 2026 to protect the local sugar industry and stabilize market supply and demand. The domestic raw sugar output in the 2024/2025 season exceeded 2 million tons, higher than the expected 1.7 million tons, and the output in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be the same as the previous season [9] - **India**: The 2025 - 26 sugar season has strong production. As of December 15, 2025, the national sugar output reached 7.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 28%. The number of operating sugar mills increased slightly, and the sugar yield improved in major sugar - producing states [9] 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and their changes of SR601, SR605, US sugar 03, and US sugar 05 are presented [7] - **Position Data of the Top 20 Seats of the Main Contract of Zhengzhou Sugar**: The trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes of the top 20 seats are provided [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to operate weakly at the bottom due to the combined effects of supply recovery, the demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle, and the spread of market pessimism [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2605 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan/ton (-2.38%), with a turnover of 669,000 lots and an increase of 7,828 lots in positions to 606,042 lots. The PP2605 contract of polypropylene (PP) closed at 6,119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113 yuan (-1.81%), with an increase of 13,800 lots in positions to 547,800 lots [3][4] - As the device maintenance losses in December decreased significantly month - on - month and the previously shut - down devices restarted one after another, the market supply pressure increased month - on - month. The demand side was restricted by the seasonal off - season, showing obvious weakness. The downstream load of PE mostly declined, and although the PP operating rate remained basically stable, factories mainly digested their previously purchased inventories, with a low willingness to make new purchases [4] - The decline in futures prices directly suppressed spot prices and market sentiment. Some producers lowered their factory prices, and traders' quotes generally followed suit. However, downstream factories lacked confidence in entering the market and mostly adopted a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [4] 3.2 Industry News - On December 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 720,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons (9.09%) from the previous working day, compared with 650,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - PE market prices continued to decline. The price of LLDPE in North China was 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,280 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,300 - 6,600 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily quoted at 5,870 - 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some polypropylene plants were still shut down, and there was still external sales of propylene as a raw material. The demand support for propylene was insufficient, and the overall market supply was loose. Producers further offered price concessions [5] - The center of the PP market moved down. The mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 5,920 - 6,100 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,000 - 6,200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,090 - 6,300 yuan/ton [5]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国公布的 11 月就业与通胀数据整体偏弱，美联储降息预期重新发酵打压美 元指数并刺激贵金属市场，近期贵金属价格仍然易涨难跌；广期所对铂钯期货实 施交易限额风险管理措施，意在为近期飙升的工业贵金属市场降温。总体看在美 联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金属板块将继续偏 强运行，建议投资者继续持偏多思路参与贵金属交易，空头套保者适当降低仓位 规模，关注美国经济就业通胀形势对美联储降息预期的影响。 | 表1： | 国内贵金属行 ...