1. Report Information - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: October 24, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] 2. Fats and Oils 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The three major oils continued to decline this week, with palm oil having the largest decline of over 2%, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil being the strongest. The overall oils sector remained in a volatile adjustment phase, searching for support below technically, while the basis quotation had little fluctuation [8]. - **Macro Factors**: China-US trade negotiations and Canada-China trade discussions related to agriculture are under way. Continued attention should be paid to specific agricultural issues in these negotiations [9]. - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month. Exports increased by 2.5% - 3.4%. Production remained strong, and Indian demand was expected to slow after Diwali, pressuring prices. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy provided bottom support [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Global soybean supply was abundant, domestic soybean oil inventory was at a historical high and slow to decline, but narrowing crushing margins were not conducive to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With capital outflow from the market, bullish sentiment weakened. Good Canadian rapeseed harvests and falling futures prices affected the domestic market. However, domestic supply remained uncertain due to unchanged China-Canada trade policies [10]. 2.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of October 23, 2025, the price of first-grade soybean oil in East China was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan week-on-week; third-grade rapeseed oil was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan week-on-week; and 24-degree palm oil in South China was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan week-on-week [12]. - **Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils was 2.5568 million tons, down 37,600 tons week-on-week, a 1.45% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.4171 million tons, down 45,600 tons; palm oil inventory was 529,800 tons, up 26,600 tons; and rapeseed oil inventory was 610,000 tons, down 18,500 tons [25]. - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 42nd week, the average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 63.89%, up 17.33% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 2.389 million tons, up 658,400 tons. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 7.1882 million tons, up from last week. The estimated arrival volume in October was about 8.807 million tons [28][29]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The MPOC expected crude palm oil prices to remain above 4,400 ringgit for the rest of the year. From October 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month according to MPOA data. If Indonesia implemented the B50 policy, its export supply would be reduced [37][43]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week of September 23, 2025, commodity funds held a net long position of -18,233 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options, a decrease of 32,680 contracts from the previous week. In CBOT soybean oil futures and options, the net long position was 8,046 contracts, a decrease of 26,973 contracts [48]. 3. Live Pigs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The national average live pig slaughter price fluctuated strongly this week. The price increased in the middle and later part of the week due to increased consumption, increased low - price segmentation by northern slaughterhouses, increased reluctance to sell, and reduced large - pig inventory. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head was - 138 yuan, up 50.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 378.6 yuan, up 53.6 yuan week - on - week [52]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 rebounded and closed at 12,200 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.48% increase, with a basis of - 570 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The average price of 50 - kg binary sows was 1,546 yuan/head this week, down 1 yuan from last week. According to official data, the theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to change slightly in the coming months. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms decreased by 0.84% month - on - month in September. Overall, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly until next June [61][62][63]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The average price of 15 - kg piglets was 255 yuan/head this week, down 10 yuan from last week. As of September, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.42% month - on - month. The theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly from October to next March [77][78]. - **Short - Term Supply**: As of September, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in September. The proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in mid - October [79][80][81]. - **Current Supply**: In September, the actual slaughter completion rate of the supply side was 96.5%, and the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The average slaughter weight this week was 127.90 kg, down 0.35 kg week - on - week [85][86]. - **Import Supply**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as last month and 20,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 11.24% decrease compared with the same period last year [91]. - **Demand**: In mid - October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased, but then cooled as the price rose. The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increased by 3.36% week - on - week [93][95]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly in the short and long term, but the pressure has eased. On the demand side, secondary fattening and terminal consumption are expected to improve, but the overall increase may be limited. The spot price is expected to continue to rebound, while the futures price may have limited upward space [100]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors are advised to wait and see; breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [102]. 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: This week, corn prices continued to decline seasonally, but the decline slowed. Northeast corn prices rose, North China prices first rose and then fell, and the selling area prices increased [104]. - **Futures Market**: As of October 23, the Dalian main 2601 contract closed at 2,140 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 0.19% increase [105]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of the week of October 17, the northern port inventory was 1.04 million tons, up 110,000 tons week - on - week; the southern port inventory was 480,000 tons, up 93,000 tons week - on - week [109]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices continued to rise this week due to tight supply, increased demand, and policy support. As of October 23, the national average corn price was 2,218 yuan/ton, and the wheat price was 2,483 yuan/ton [110]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China imported 15.83 million tons of grain, a 12.3% increase month - on - month and a 12.5% increase year - on - year. The import volume of various grains showed different trends. The import advantage of substitute grains may weaken in the future [117][118]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.0% increase year - on - year. Hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly, so feed production is also expected to increase. As of October 23, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 24.04 days, down 0.40 days from last week [132][133][136]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: As of the week of October 23, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, down 7,600 tons from last week; the corn starch production was 287,700 tons, down 5,800 tons; the开机 rate was 55.62%, down 1.12%. The processing profit of starch enterprises fluctuated slightly. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased by 6.5% from last week [137][139]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 Chinese corn production and consumption forecasts remain unchanged, but the import volume is adjusted down by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. The price is expected to be stable [146][147]. 4.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, new corn is listed, the cost decreases, and the substitution advantage of wheat and imported grains weakens. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory intention is low, and deep - processing demand recovers. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the futures price will fluctuate around the cost [148][149]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should purchase on demand; futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions on dips [149]. 5. Soybean Meal 5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **External Market**: CBOT soybeans were relatively strong due to expectations of China - US negotiations and the US - India agreement. The Brazilian new - season soybean planting progress is faster than last year [153]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly, but was weaker than the external market. The market is concerned about the outcome of China - US negotiations and the high inventory of soybean meal. Investors are advised to hold light positions or use option strategies [154]. 5.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: According to the USDA September report, new - season US soybean planting and harvest areas decreased year - on - year. There is a possibility of further downward adjustment of yield. Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [155][156][157]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of September 18, US soybean exports were at a low level in the new season, especially exports to China [163]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The soybean crushing rate and volume are expected to remain high in the short term. The soybean import volume in September was 12.869 million tons. The port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then decrease [168][169]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of October 17, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 853,400 tons, down 87,700 tons from last week. Terminal demand is relatively good [176]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of October 23, the basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 11 - 1 spread was at a low level [182]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 23, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 42,582 lots, slightly down from last week [186]. 6. Eggs 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price first decreased and then rebounded, but the upward pressure appeared on Friday. It is expected to peak and fluctuate next week [188]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price rebounded this week as the spot price stopped falling. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound and sell out - of - the - money call options [188]. 6.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was at a historical high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down in September [189]. - **Inventory Proportion**: In September, the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased, the proportion of 120 - 450 - day - old laying hens increased, and the proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased [192].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows an external - stable and internal - weak pattern, with large deflationary pressure and no urgent need for a new round of comprehensive growth - stabilizing measures. The new policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost the economy in Q4 [4]. - Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, and the upcoming consultations and summit are expected to reach agreements on relaxing export controls, commodity purchases, and extending the suspension of high - tariffs [15]. - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee sets the goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming to promote high - quality development and modernization [17]. - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in H2 2025, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure [19][21]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026, but investors need to control positions due to short - term adjustment risks [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - **GDP**: In Q3 2025, China's real GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from Q2. The nominal GDP grew 3.73% year - on - year, a 0.21 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The GDP deflator shrank 1.02% year - on - year, with deflationary pressure remaining high [4]. - **Investment**: From January to September 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, turning from a 0.5% increase in January - August. Real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4%, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% [6]. - **Consumption**: In September 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from August [6]. - **Output**: In September 2025, industrial output increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August [7]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, new - home sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and new - home sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year. Housing prices continued to decline, and inventory pressure increased [8][10]. 3.1.2 Focus - Sino - US trade tensions have shown signs of easing. After multiple rounds of tariff hikes and counter - measures, the two sides will hold the fifth - round economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27, and the leaders will meet on October 30 in South Korea [11][15]. 3.1.3 Policy - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee was held from October 20 - 23, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, including high - quality development, technological self - reliance, and social progress [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range of 95 - 102 in H2 2025. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield will fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.5% [19][21][23]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1052.4 tons, 22.8% higher than the low point in May 2024, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, 16% higher than the low point in May 2024 [24][25]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices have entered a new upward trend since late August. The short - term adjustment risks exist, but the upward trend may continue until 2026 [28][29][32]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly in the second half of October. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive, and the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has increased [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of October 23, the carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. The current carbon price level is equivalent to the opening price in 2021 and has declined by over 50% compared to the peak in 2024. The low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rules, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [7]. - The "十五五" period will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, construct a new energy system, and shift from the energy consumption dual - control system to the carbon emission dual - control system. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries, aiming to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - The carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton as of October 23, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. Since June this year, the carbon quota price has been falling, and the current price is similar to the 2021 opening price, down over 50% from the 2024 peak. The optimal carry - over rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but they need to apply before June 10, 2026. The current low carbon price is related to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises, and the price may stabilize after November [7]. - In October 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price of CEA is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market News - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the GDP in the first three quarters of China was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the first, second, and third quarters increased by 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [9]. - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in September was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The electricity consumption in the third quarter was 2.9 trillion kWh, which was high due to high - temperature processes in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [9][10]. - On October 24, it was announced that during the "十五五" period, efforts will be made to develop non - fossil energy, promote the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. By 2030, the utilization of bulk solid waste is expected to reach about 4.5 billion tons. The carbon emission dual - control system will be implemented, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries [10]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content is provided in the given text, only the names of the figures are mentioned, such as "Figure 3: Year - on - year growth rate of power generation (%)" and "Figure 4: Year - on - year growth rate of newly installed power generation equipment (%)" [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The A-share market showed a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high on October 24 due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations. The market style is expected to adopt a dumbbell strategy in the short term, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500. [7][8][13] - The bond market was suppressed by the stock market this week, and bond yields mostly increased, with the short end rising more significantly. The bond market lacks direct positive stimuli in the short term, and it is still necessary to wait patiently for a counterattack opportunity. [99] - The container shipping futures continued to rebound this week, with the SCFIS rising above 1100 points. The bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached, and there is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from oversold conditions. [116][131] Summary by Directory Stock Index Market Review - The A-share market showed a trend of "short-term correction followed by a strong run, a sharp decline after being impacted externally, a rebound, and then a continuous upward trend, and a consolidation after the positive news was realized and the negotiations were deadlocked." From October 20 to 24, the A-share market rose with shrinking volume, and small and medium-cap stocks performed more strongly. [7][10] - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the outcome of the Sino-US negotiations. If there are no black swan events, it may help the index break through further. In the short term, the market style will adopt a dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500. [13] 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the positions also generally declined. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 115,200 lots, 54,500 lots, 134,500 lots, and 225,700 lots respectively, with changes of -51,700 lots, -23,600 lots, -47,800 lots, and -64,800 lots compared with last week. The average daily positions were 257,100 lots, 91,800 lots, 245,300 lots, and 355,200 lots respectively, with changes of -20,000 lots, -9,500 lots, -16,000 lots, and -12,300 lots compared with last week. [14] 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis trend was differentiated. The basis of CSI 300 narrowed, the basis of SSE 50 changed from discount to premium, and the basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also narrowed. The annualized basis rate also showed similar trends. [18][19][21] - The spread between the next-month and current-month contracts of IF, IC, and IM was negative, and the spread of IH was positive. The spread between the current-quarter and current-month contracts of IF, IC, and IM was negative, and the spread of IH was positive. [22] - Small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels. [25] Industry Sector Overview - In terms of the CSI 300 sub-industry, the communication, information, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the consumption and real estate sectors led the losses. In terms of the CSI 500 sub-industry, the information, energy, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and consumption sectors led the losses. [26][29] - From the perspective of the primary industry, the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors led the losses. [31] Valuation Comparison - As of October 24, 2025, the rolling price-to-earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4576 times, 12.26 times, 33.948 times, and 46.4532 times respectively, and they were at the 90.37%, 94.11%, 81.2%, and 73.01% percentile levels in the past ten years. [33] Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The stock-bond seesaw effect continued this week, and the stock market rebound suppressed the bond market. The long-term futures performed stronger than the spot bonds, while the short-term bonds were the opposite. There is a certain positive arbitrage space in the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts, but it is necessary to be cautious when participating in the reverse arbitrage strategy. The 10-year basis is particularly low and has a certain upward regression space. The 2603 contract has poor liquidity, so it is not recommended to participate in the inter-period strategy. Pay attention to the flattening strategy. [38][41][45][56][59] - Bond Spot Market: The yields of most treasury bond spot bonds increased this week, with the short end rising more significantly. The US bond yields first decreased and then increased. [70] - Funding: As the tax payment peak approached, the central bank switched to net investment. The funding situation tightened slightly but remained generally stable, with no liquidity stratification between banks and non-banks. [77][79] - Interest Rate Derivatives: The yields of interest rate swaps increased slightly this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable. [93] Market Analysis - Recent Market Logic: In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative news was realized. The market stabilized but still lacked a trigger for a counterattack, such as clear monetary easing. It is necessary to pay attention to the possible repeated risks in Sino-US trade negotiations. [99] - This Week's Fundamental Situation: The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations. From the demand side, exports and consumption were relatively resilient, while investment demand weakened significantly. The industrial production demand rebounded, but there is a risk of a decline in the fourth quarter. The export in September exceeded expectations, but the domestic demand side performed poorly, with consumption slowing down significantly and investment falling into negative growth. The real estate market has not yet stabilized. [100][101][102] - Next Week's Bond Market Outlook: Short-term monetary easing is difficult to implement, and the bond market lacks a clear main line. It is still necessary to trade bonds based on the stock market. Pay attention to the Sino-US trade negotiations next week. [113] Next Week's Open Market Maturity and Important Economic Calendar - A total of 156.72 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and MLF will mature next week. Economic data such as industrial enterprise profits for September and the official PMI for October will be released. [115] Shipping Index Market Review - The container shipping futures continued to rebound this week, with the SCFIS rising above 1100 points. The spot freight rates of shipping companies continued to increase in November, and the far-month pessimistic expectations continued to be repaired due to the resurgence of the Hamas-Israel conflict. [116] Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: The freight rates of ocean routes continued to rebound, with the rates of European and American routes increasing. Shipping companies continued to support the freight rates for November, and the bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached. [124][125] - Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in October was still at a relatively high level in the off-season, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the macro demand in the eurozone continued to recover weakly, and the demand side may have limited support for the container shipping price. [127][128] Market Outlook - October is a traditional off-season, and the supply pressure still exists. However, shipping companies have started to support the freight rates for the year-end long-term contract season, and the bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached. There is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from oversold conditions. [131]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability of sanctions and their impact on the market need to be closely monitored. The crude oil market faces supply - demand imbalances, with increasing supply and weakening demand in the future [7][8][10]. - The price of asphalt may follow the short - term upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable, and it may fall again later due to weakening demand [26][27]. - The soda ash market is in a state of oversupply, and the contract price is expected to fluctuate. With no substantial positive factors, the price may fluctuate weakly [50][51][53]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market persists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [74]. - The polysilicon market has insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - The pulp market may continue to oscillate widely in the short term due to weak overseas consumption and slow start of the traditional peak season [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices rose this week. Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies may support the prices of Middle - Eastern oil types, but the sustainability of sanctions is uncertain. If sanctions ease, oil prices may fall again [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices, but historical experience shows that prices may fall without further support. EIA data shows that US crude oil and product inventories decreased this week, and refinery operating rates rebounded. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the market is worried about supply over - capacity. On the demand side, although the demand in the second and third quarters was slightly higher than expected, it is expected to be weak in the remaining time of this year and 2026 [8][10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The asphalt futures price rose this week, while the spot price fell slightly. The cost side is affected by oil prices, and the supply side is expected to remain stable overall, but the demand side is seasonally weakening. Short - term prices may follow oil prices, but the sustainability is doubtful, and long - positions should take flexible profit - taking [26][27]. - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply side has some changes in refinery production plans, with overall operating rates expected to be stable. The demand side is weakening seasonally, and the inventory of both factories and the society has decreased. The production profit has generally increased [28][30][31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price fluctuated slightly and was slightly stronger. Supply was affected by equipment maintenance, but overall production remained stable. Downstream demand was mainly for low - price replenishment, and the fundamental driving force was still insufficient. The market was in a state of oversupply, and the price was expected to oscillate, with a possible weakening trend [50][51][53]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: - **Supply**: The weekly production and operating rate of soda ash decreased slightly. Some enterprises had equipment maintenance, and the overall supply remained abundant. In the fourth quarter, supply may be further affected by new capacity [54][55]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash increased again, with heavy - soda ash inventory increasing significantly. The inventory pressure was significant, and the supply - demand imbalance continued to dominate the market [56]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soda ash was expected to oscillate narrowly, with a weak balance between supply and demand and insufficient upward momentum [63]. - **Glass Import and Export**: The export volume of soda ash in September decreased slightly, but the cumulative export volume from January to September increased significantly compared with last year. The import volume was small [64]. - **Downstream**: The demand for soda ash from the float glass industry was relatively stable, but the industry was still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry was in a weak - balance state, and the inventory pressure might restrict price increases [68][69]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply - demand imbalance persisted, and the price was expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9000 yuan/ton [74]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the industrial silicon industry chain were stable. The spot inventory was slowly increasing, and the production continued to rise. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors had different performances, and the export volume decreased slightly in September [74][76][77]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook**: The price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The photovoltaic industry had insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. It was advisable to wait and see [88][89]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the polysilicon industry chain were stable. The production of polysilicon continued to increase, but the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory of the entire industry chain increased slightly [90][92]. Pulp - **Pulp Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price rose this week, and the spot price of wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. Overseas consumption was weak, and the supply pressure of domestic and foreign pulp mills was still being released. The demand side of the pulp market was slowly increasing, and the traditional peak season started slowly. The price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [103][104]. - **Fundamental Changes**: - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Main Producing Countries**: In August, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased year - on - year, with different trends for softwood and hardwood pulp [105]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In September, China's paper pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [104]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory Situation**: The inventory days of global producers' softwood and hardwood pulp showed different trends, and the inventory in major regions and ports increased [115]. - **Downstream Market**: The performance of downstream base papers was still differentiated, and the demand for the pulp market increased slowly [104].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月23日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 170 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The spot market had stable foreign - market quotes and a 3 - yuan/ton price increase at Qingdao Port. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross, and the MACD green column narrowed for 3 consecutive days. The market may be affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and BHP's announcements. The supply and demand fundamentals show that Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded, arrivals have dropped, and iron - water production is at a high level but has declined slightly for 3 weeks. Steel production profits are shrinking. Overall, the coking coal market news may drive steel and iron ore prices up, but the changes in steel production profits and Sino - US negotiation results need to be observed [7][9][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 23, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract opened at 777 yuan/ton, reached a high of 782 yuan/ton, a low of 770 yuan/ton, and closed at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume was 236,711 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,978 lots to 561,141 lots. Other related steel futures contracts also had different price changes and trading volumes [5][7] - The spot market: Main iron ore foreign - market quotes on October 23 were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. Technically, the KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross on the daily line, and the green column of the MACD indicator on the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive days [9] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: China will send a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 to 27. On October 23, BHP stated that if its coking coal business in Australia does not receive regulatory support, it will be forced to make "difficult decisions." Last month, BHP announced the suspension of its joint - venture coking coal mine in Queensland due to low product prices and high royalties [10][11][12] - Fundamentals: Australian and Brazilian shipments have rebounded, and arrivals have dropped significantly, mainly due to the regular decline after the end of the quarterly - end rush. The average daily iron - water production is still above 240 million tons but has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the current profits of rebar blast furnaces, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and electric furnaces have all fallen into a loss state. It is expected that the subsequent production will continue to fluctuate at around 240 million tons. Steel demand has recovered this week, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. The sustainability of the subsequent demand recovery needs to be observed [11] - Overall view: The sudden news in the coking coal market has a significant driving effect on prices, and steel and iron ore may follow the upward trend in the short term. However, the changes in steel production profits need to be observed to see if they can recover. In addition, the results of the Sino - US negotiations also need to be closely monitored [11] 3.2 Industry News - On October 23, BHP stated that if its coking coal business in Australia does not receive regulatory support, it will be forced to make "difficult decisions." Last month, BHP announced the suspension of its joint - venture coking coal mine in Queensland with a subsidiary of Mitsubishi due to low product prices and high royalties [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, Brazilian and Australian iron ore shipments, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and shipment volume, sample steel mill tax - free hot - metal cost, blast furnace and electric - furnace operating rates and capacity utilization, national average daily iron - water production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, weekly output of the five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][18][22]

Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, being the traditional off - season with limited capacity control and supply pressure, the container shipping spot freight rates are continuously falling. However, shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November in preparation for the year - end long - term contract season. Although the rate increase may not fully materialize, a bottom - up trend is likely to form, and the bottom of freight rates for the year may have been reached. The December contract has an opportunity for oversold recovery due to the Israel - Hamas conflict affecting the Red Sea route [8]. - The China export container shipping market continued its rebound this week. The overall transport demand was stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes increased, driving up the comprehensive index. China's exports in September showed positive growth, especially to the EU, which was the main growth driver in the export market [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Spot Freight Situation**: In October, the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control, the supply pressure remains, and the spot freight rates are falling. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. Although the rate increase may not fully materialize, the freight rates are likely to bottom out and recover. The December contract has an oversold recovery opportunity due to the Israel - Hamas conflict [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Market Rebound**: The China export container shipping market continued to rebound this week. The overall transport demand was stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes increased, driving up the comprehensive index. China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export growth rate to the EU reached 14.2% in September, a three - year high [9]. - **Route - specific Situations**: - **European Routes**: The transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking prices continued to rebound. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on October 17 increased by 7.2% compared to the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, and the freight rates continued to rise. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on October 17 increased by 3.5% compared to the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: China's exports to the US decreased by 27% in September, with six consecutive months of negative growth since April. However, the transport demand was relatively stable this week, and the spot market booking prices rebounded from the low level. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on October 17 increased by 31.9% and 16.4% respectively compared to the previous period [10]. - **Israel - Hamas Conflict**: There was a new conflict between Israel and Hamas. Israel is accelerating the resumption of full - scale military operations, and the Red Sea route is unlikely to resume navigation this year [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on October 20 was 1140.38, up 10.5% from October 13. - The index for US West routes on October 20 was 863.46, up 0.1% from October 13 [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on October 23, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, are provided [6]. - **Shipping - related Data Charts**: Charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European route futures main and sub - main contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided [13][16][17][21]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2511 | 22035 | 22300 | 22310 | 22015 | 325 | 1.48 | 35504 | -10907 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22030 | 22345 | 22345 | 22025 | 355 | 1.61 | 124740 | -7952 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 22110 | 22370 | 22380 | 22050 | 345 ...