棉花：美棉受美元走强影响下跌 郑棉弱势震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：棉花期货日度数据监测 | | | 收盘价 | 截止 5/23 | 单位 75/04 | BE日 13430 | の日 13410 | 涨跌回 -20 | 张获相 -0.15% | 目回比 420 | 在回服 -2120 | 历史位直 22.88% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF09 | 成交量 | 5/23 | ਜੋ | 124539 | 127197 | 2658 | 2.13% | -147836 | -324760 | 44.13% | | | (主力) | 持仓量 | 5/23 | ਜੇ | 578626 | 577706 | -920 | -0.16% | 10075 | 28247 | 91.08% | | | | 注册仓单 | 5/23 | ਤੇ | 11409 | 11409 | 0 | ...

豆粕生猪：进口成本上升 豆粕小幅反弹 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 金口期货 JIDGHI FILTURES | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 東位 | マ日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2992 | 2998 | -6.00 | -0.20% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2716 | 2719 | -3.00 | -0.11% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2939 | 2934 | 5.00 | 0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月22日 | 元/吨 | 2336 | 2333 | 3.00 | 0.13% | | | CZCE菜籽柏: 05 | 5月 ...

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.22） | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

豆粕生猪：基差维持低位 远月放量成交 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 1、据巴西全国谷物出口商协会(Anec)预计，巴西 5 月大豆出口料为 1452 万吨，较上周 的预估值 1427 万吨增加 1.75%。如果该预估应验，则巴西 5 月大豆出口量较上年同期增加 100 万吨。今年 3 月巴西大豆出口量曾创出 1570 万吨的纪录。 2、5 月 20 日，全国主要油厂豆粕成交 88.95 万吨，较前一交易日增 71.15 万吨，其中 现货成交 7.64 万吨，较前一交易日增 2.81 万吨，远月基差成交 81.31 万吨，较前一交易日 增 68.34 万吨。开机方面，全国动态全样本油厂开机率为 63.77%，较前一日上升 3.10%。 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | THEAT FILLINES | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - On May 21, among black commodity futures, only iron ore and hot-rolled coils closed higher. Rebar closed at 3061 yuan/ton, down 0.07%; hot-rolled coil's main contract closed at 3211 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; iron ore's main contract closed at 728.5 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Demand - Terminal real estate investment continues to decline, and steel-using indicators remain weak, dragging down the sentiment of black commodities. Last week, steel blast furnace maintenance increased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly. However, considering the profitability of long-process steel, the short-term production reduction space is limited, and there is still support for the actual demand of iron ore. Overall, the demand for iron ore is in a "near-strong, far-weak" pattern, with limited directional drive for the market [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Supply - Mysteel data shows that the latest total iron ore shipments were 33.478 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.188 million tons. Overseas shipments have significantly rebounded, which may increase the supply pressure of iron ore. However, the recent arrival volume is relatively low, and the inventory of imported iron ore at Chinese ports is still decreasing. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 146.2763 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.5825 million tons. In the short term, the low port inventory supports the iron ore price, and the negative impact of the loosening supply on the market is expected to take time to transmit [1]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply-demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot-rolled and rebar [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high-level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply-demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength relationship between the two [1]. Group 5: Summary - Currently, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore has not significantly deteriorated, and the downside space of the market is limited. The positive macro sentiment has been released, and the iron ore futures price is in a volatile consolidation. Iron ore currently has strong rigid demand, and although the pig iron output has declined, it is still at a high level. The supply-demand contradiction may gradually accumulate in the future. Pay attention to short-selling opportunities after the short-term rebound ends [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - CBOT soybean futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with Brazilian discounts oscillating at the bottom. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited room for further decline, and it is advisable to enter the market at low prices. The spot price of soybean meal is expected to be bearish, and the low level of the futures price may shorten the downward space of the basis [17]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase slightly, remaining in a slightly loose balance. Attention should be paid to the timing of potential supply release, which may cause prices to continue to be under pressure. However, continuous price declines may trigger farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the price decline [18][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The main DCE soybean meal 2509 contract rose 0.10% to 2889 yuan/ton, with coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes down 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The main DCE live pig 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 13690 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live pigs was 14.45 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed unchanged at 1051 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - In the US Midwest, it was dry on the weekend and will see rainfall again this week. In the west, there were scattered showers until last Friday, dry on Saturday and Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures varied. In the east, there were scattered showers until Saturday, mostly dry on Sunday, and scattered showers on Monday. Temperatures also fluctuated. The 6 - 10 - day outlook shows scattered showers from Tuesday to Thursday and mostly dry from Friday to Saturday. The southeastern low - pressure will bring showers to the east, and another weather system will bring more rainfall potential [4]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On May 16, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 646 million tons, up 57 million tons week - on - week. The soybean meal inventory was 12 million tons, up 2 million tons week - on - week [5]. - On May 19, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 178,000 tons, up 90,000 tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill startup rate was 60.67%, up 3.17% from the previous day [5]. - On May 20, the import cost of US soybeans was 4553 yuan, up 6 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3660 yuan, up 5 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3570 yuan, up 50 yuan [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises' live pigs was 269,369, up 2.67% [5]. - On May 20, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughtering enterprises' live pigs was 122,982, down 0.26% [6]. - In March 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.55 million tons of soybean meal and 960,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans was 2578 tons, soybean meal was 2.2 million tons, and soybean oil was 320,000 tons [6]. - As of May 17, the harvesting rate of 2024/25 Brazilian soybeans was 98.9% [6]. - As of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 34% [6]. - In the first three weeks of May, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, up 11.34% from the same period last year [7]. - China's imported soybeans' customs clearance has accelerated from over 20 days to about 10 days. It is expected that 13 million tons will arrive in May, 12 million tons in June, and 9.5 million tons in July [7]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live pig prices in Henan and DCE live pig futures, live pig basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][11][14][15]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean export weakness and good sowing weather suppress the rebound of US soybeans, but concerns about Argentine soybean production cuts provide short - term support. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has limited downward space. The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose, and the inventory pressure may reach its maximum from late June to July. The spot price of soybean meal is bearish [17]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply has slightly increased, and the medium - term supply pressure is increasing. The terminal demand has declined, but the Dragon Boat Festival备货 may boost demand briefly. In the short term, supply and demand are in a slightly loose balance, and the price may be under pressure [18][19].

-200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's May supply and demand report is moderately bullish, with lower-than-expected ending stocks for US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [5]. - The easing of trade tariffs boosts the future demand for US soybeans, while putting pressure on Brazilian soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures may stop falling and stabilize, but the spot price is expected to be weak [14]. - For live pigs, the short - term supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential pressure in the medium - term. Demand is cooling, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 fell 0.76% to 2886 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes dropped by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The DCE live pig main contract 2509 rose 0.11% to 13885 yuan/ton. The national average ex - farm price of ternary live pigs was flat at 14.71 yuan/kg. The CBOT US soybeans main contract rose 1.69% to 1070 cents/bushel [2]. 2. Weather in Main Producing Areas - The temperature in the US Midwest is rising this week, and the weather pattern will become more active. There were scattered showers in the south last week, and the overall weather was dry over the weekend. Some areas may have showers this week. The planting progress and early growth conditions are expected to improve, but long - term dryness may cause problems [3]. 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 19th week of 2025, the inventory of major domestic oil mills' soybean meal increased by 23.26% week - on - week to 10.12 million tons, and decreased by 81.90% year - on - year [4]. - On May 12, the trading volume of major domestic oil mills' soybean meal decreased by 4.84 million tons to 9.66 million tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate dropped by 2.26% to 54.80% [4]. - On May 13, the import cost of US soybeans rose by 80 yuan to 8844 yuan, Brazilian soybeans rose by 86 yuan to 3734 yuan, and Argentine soybeans rose by 40 yuan to 3587 yuan [4]. - On May 13, the daily slaughter volume of key slaughter enterprises increased by 0.03% to 123,701 heads, while the daily出栏量 of key breeding enterprises decreased by 2.5% [4]. - The USDA's May supply and demand report is moderately bullish, with lower - than - expected ending stocks for US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [5]. - The US soybean planting rate is 48%, higher than the expected 47%, and the emergence rate is 17% [5]. - The global oilseed production in 2025/26 is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a 2% increase. Global soybean production is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a 1% increase [5]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate in June with an 88.4% probability and in July with a 59.2% probability [6]. 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, and their basis, as well as the inventory of Chinese soybeans and soybean meal [9][10][13]. 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: US soybean futures reached a three - month high. The easing of trade tariffs and the bullish USDA report boost the price. The domestic soybean meal futures may stop falling, but the spot price is expected to be weak due to increased supply expectations [14]. - Live Pigs: In the short - term, the supply pressure is moderate, but there is potential pressure in the medium - term. Demand is cooling, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15].

| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.13） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3079 27 0.88% | 3240 | 161 | | 热卷 | 3215 25 0.78% | 3240 | 25 | | 铁矿 | 714.5 7.5 1.06% | 767 | 52.5 | | 焦煤 | 870.5 -7.5 -0.85% | 1010 | 139.5 | | 焦炭 | 1447 -10 -0.69% | 1409 | -38 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3079元/吨，上涨0.88%；热卷主力 | | | | | 合约收于3215元/吨，上涨0.78%；铁矿今日主力合约收于714.5元/吨；双焦 | | | | | 今天小幅下跌。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 需求方面，上周Mysteel调研247家钢厂盈利率为58.87%，环比上周增加 | | | | | 2.59%;日均铁水产量为245.64万吨，环比上周增加0.2 ...

表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 油脂：马棕油库存超预期 油脂高开低走 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 | | | 油 | 脂 每 | 日 | 数 据 | 追 | 踪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 7792.00 | 7814.00 | -22.00 | -0.28% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 7954.00 | 8024.00 | -70.00 | -0.87% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 9374.00 | 9378.00 | -4.00 | -0.04% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 5月12日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1052.25 | 17.75 | 1.69% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 5月12日 | 美分 ...