本周数据总体清淡，适当关注周四晚间美国7月标普制造业与服务业PMI初值以及周度初请失业金人数。事 南华贵金属日报: 贸易关税担忧趋缓削弱避险情绪 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月24日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场有所调整，美指虽延续偏弱，但10Y美债收益率走高利空贵金属估值。周边美股再刷新 高，比特币和原油震荡，南华有色金属指数调整。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3397.5美元/盎 司，-1.34%；美白银2509合约收报于39.52美元/盎司，-0.09%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约792.9元/克， +0.9%；SHFE白银2510合约收9492元/千克，+1.16%。随着8月1日关税落地期限临近，美国关税贸易战趋 缓提升市场风险偏好并短期压制贵金属价格，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议，对日关税 税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资；媒体称欧美接近达成协议、美将对欧盟征15%关税，虽此后白宫回 应是臆测，但仍引发一定贵金属多头获利了结。美联储方面，政府对美联储干预仍在持续进行，这将促使美 联储独立性原则 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report predicts that the nickel and stainless - steel market will continue to fluctuate. The short - term price increase drive of the nickel ore is limited due to the rising inventory from the Philippines. The stainless - steel market is also in a volatile state, with weak demand suppressing the upside. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Management Strategy**: For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value decline, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), and buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan. For procurement management, when worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel returns to a fluctuating state, and the macro - level sentiment fades. The inventory of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, weakening the support for nickel ore. The short - term price increase drive of the ore end is limited. The transaction price of nickel iron has回调 again, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August has moved up. The stainless - steel market also returns to a fluctuating state, with large factories still having the sentiment of reducing production, and weak demand suppressing the upside in the short term. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. 3.利多 and 利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the US may involve the follow - up trend of the nickel industry chain; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the inventory reduction is slow [4]. 4. Market Data - **Nickel Market**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, weakening the bottom support. The price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,370 yuan/ton, and the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,530 US dollars/ton. The trading volume is 133,758 lots, and the open interest is 95,734 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 21,971 tons, with a decrease of 122 tons compared with the previous period [5]. - **Stainless - steel Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,900 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 226,003 lots, and the open interest is 122,384 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 103,415 tons, with a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons compared with the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 205,872 tons, a decrease of 2,220 tons compared with the previous period; the stainless - steel social inventory is 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared with the previous period; the nickel pig iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons compared with the previous period [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, the double - coke futures have strongly rebounded, speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, spot liquidity has tightened, coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. This week, iron ore has strongly rebounded, squeezing immediate steel profits, but steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little willingness to cut pig iron production, and the procurement demand for coal and coke is strong. Speculative and rigid demand support the double - coke futures and spot prices. The market's expectation of Supply - side 2.0 is intensifying, and the short - term futures may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, the sharp rise in furnace materials threatens steel mills' profitability, high pig iron production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined, and inventory accumulation is accelerating. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity of coal and coke [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coke Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1030 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1350 - 1800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. Double - Coke Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month spread, with no spot exposure, it is recommended to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), sell at the suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 23, 2025, compared with July 22, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of rebar remained unchanged at 86,534 tons; hot - rolled coil decreased by 598 tons to 58,951 tons; iron ore decreased by 200 lots to 3,100 lots; coking coal decreased by 500 lots to 0 lots; coke remained unchanged at 760 lots; ferrosilicon remained unchanged at 22,150 sheets; and ferromanganese decreased by 523 sheets to 77,972 sheets [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100, and it is difficult to reduce pig iron production in the off - season. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Coking plants are suffering serious losses and there is still an expectation of price increases [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production beyond expectations. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent port - arrival pressure is increasing [6]. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - A large amount of data on coal and coke futures and spot prices, including basis, cost, price differences between different contracts, and various profit data, are provided. For example, on July 23, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian No. 5) was 1008 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 128.0 yuan/ton; the immediate coking profit was - 19 yuan/ton [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - In the second half of the year, the industrial silicon industry is in a cycle of accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity and entering the destocking process. The supply pressure will be continuously released with the implementation of production plans in Southwest China during the wet season. The overall support from the downstream demand side is expected to strengthen, but the demand may be suppressed if the integration of the photovoltaic industry makes substantial progress. The inventory is expected to further decline with the improvement of demand. Overall, the price of industrial silicon will show a wide - range oscillation in the second half of the year. The strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of laying out long positions in industrial silicon on dips [4]. - The positive factors include the positive signal from the "anti - involution" policy, limited further downward space for costs in the short term, and better - than - expected demand. The negative factors are the release of production capacity in Southwest China during the wet season and the potential weakening of demand due to the integration of downstream polysilicon enterprises [7][8]. Polysilicon - In the second half of the year, the polysilicon market is in a stage where the fundamental logic and the "anti - involution" logic alternate. From the fundamental perspective, the expectation of lower electricity prices and increased profits may prompt enterprises to increase production capacity, while the demand growth is limited, and the high - inventory pressure persists. From the "anti - involution" logic, effective integration agreements or coordinated production - reduction measures may reverse the current situation. The strategy is to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between PS2509 and PS2512. - The positive factors are the potential industry - wide capacity integration and the external demand stimulus from the US "big and beautiful" bill. The negative factor is the potential inventory accumulation if the integration plan fails to materialize [10]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 9525 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.35% and a weekly increase of 9.67%. The trading volume is 1681997 lots, with a daily increase of 36.26% and a weekly increase of 51.32%. The open interest is 334776 lots, with a daily decrease of 12.12% and a weekly decrease of 11.87% [13]. - The SI09 - 11 spread is 160 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.34% and a weekly increase of 128.57%. The SI11 - 12 spread is - 265 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 17.19% and a weekly increase of - 18.46% [15]. Spot Data - The prices of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in various regions have increased, with daily increases ranging from 3.02% to 4.42%. The basis of East China 553 and 421 has increased significantly, with the daily increase of the basis of East China 553 reaching 955.56% and that of East China 421 reaching 145.76%. The price difference between East China 421 and 553 remains unchanged [17]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total warehouse receipts are 50106 lots, with a decrease of 5.19%. The inventory in some delivery warehouses has changed, such as a decrease of 13.73% in the Tianjin delivery warehouse and an increase of 1.45% in the Sichuan delivery warehouse [24][25]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 50080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.99% and a weekly increase of 16.61%. The trading volume is 1246241 lots, with a daily increase of 64.52% and a weekly increase of 177.03%. The open interest is 165641 lots, with a daily decrease of 13.81% and a weekly increase of 130.75% [28]. - The PS08 - 09 spread is 115 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 55.77% and a weekly decrease of 51.06%. The PS08 - 11 spread is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 39.31% and a weekly decrease of 61.74%. The PS09 - 11 spread is 325 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30.11% and a weekly decrease of 64.48%. The PS11 - 12 spread is - 1950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of - 12.95% and a weekly increase of - 8.02% [30]. Spot Data - The prices of most polysilicon products remain stable, with only the N - type polysilicon price index increasing by 1.15% and the particle silicon increasing by 2.33%. The prices of silicon wafers and solar cells remain unchanged [35][37]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 6030 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.55% and a weekly decrease of 1294.06%. The warehouse receipts in various regions remain unchanged [42][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core View The stock index reached a new high during intraday trading today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The overall upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The afternoon pullback is a way to prevent overheating of market sentiment. After consecutive sharp rises, the index may experience a short - term consolidation. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed mixed performance today, with large - cap indices rising and small and medium - cap indices falling. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 284.39 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with shrinking volume, while the rest rose with increasing volume [4]. Important Information - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than at the end of last year, with an increase of 416.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year [5]. - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" has softened, and he and Bessent are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.06 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.1109 | 6.6876 | 10.5221 | 21.174 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 1.3706 | 0.7078 | 1.2645 | 1.9443 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.9057 | 10.0756 | 22.8236 | 33.8278 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.151 | - 0.1022 | 0.291 | 0.9947 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.01 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.32 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18646.00 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 284.39 | [8]

source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） 建议入场区 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | | 间 | | 库存管 理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产，苹果收购价 | 过低 | 多 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身情况，做空苹果期货来锁 定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | AP2510 卖出 | | 25% | 7980-8000 | | 采购管 理 | 担心旧作苹果库存下降，而新季苹 果减产，苹果收购价过高 | | 空 | 为了防止苹果价格上涨而抬升采购成本，可以在目前阶段买入苹果期货， 在盘面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | AP2510 买入 | | 25% | 7850-7900 | 苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/07/23 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up cycle of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentrated [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volume of the Main Contract**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 69,380 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 3,500 yuan (- 4.80%) and a weekly increase of 2,960 yuan (4.46%). The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, with a daily increase of 215,933 lots (19.31%) and a weekly increase of 856,045 lots (179.05%). The open interest was 362,054 lots, with a daily decrease of 49,584 lots (- 12.05%) and a weekly increase of 21,436 lots (6.29%) [8]. - **Price Spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 700 yuan, with a daily decrease of 300 yuan (- 30.00%) and a weekly decrease of 60 yuan (- 7.89%); the LC09 - 11 spread was 760 yuan, with a daily decrease of 320 yuan (- 30%) and a weekly increase of 180 yuan (31%); the LC11 - 12 spread was - 160 yuan, with a daily decrease of 180 yuan (- 900%) and a weekly increase of 80 yuan (- 33%) [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, showed different degrees of daily and weekly increases. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,605 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan (0.94%) and a weekly increase of 155 yuan (10.69%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan (2.00%) and a weekly increase of 5,450 yuan (8.60%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed different degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 32,665 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 325 yuan (1.00%) [23]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis Quotations**: The basis quotations of different lithium carbonate brands showed different degrees of decline. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) was 100 yuan, with a daily decrease of 300 yuan [27]. - **Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants was 10,754, an increase of 665 from the previous day. The warrant quantities of different warehouses changed differently, with some increasing and some decreasing [30]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production and Delivery Profits**: The report shows the trends of production profits from purchased ore, theoretical delivery profits, and import profits of lithium carbonate, but specific profit values are not summarized here [32].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season production in the overseas market is continuously increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger with the opening of the out - of - quota profit window, but the rebound strength may be limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.94% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.1% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5850 - 5900 with a 25% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) at 30 - 40 with a 50% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) at 5750 - 5800 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can sell put options (SR509P5700) at 10 - 15 with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices, while the potential decline in Brazil's production in the new season causes price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but with limited rebound strength [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Sales and Inventory in Guangxi**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June, single - month sugar sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Sugar Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India expects the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (20.24%); the cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (22.68%) [5]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons [6]. - **Brazilian Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6]. - **Coca - Cola and Pepsi - Cola**: Coca - Cola plans to re - use sugar as a beverage additive in the US and launch new sugar - containing cola products, and Pepsi - Cola may follow suit [8]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Sugar Production**: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar production rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast**: Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [8]. - **Thai Sugar Production**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [8]. - **Indian Sugar Production Forecast**: Due to favorable monsoon conditions and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 season is expected to strongly recover to about 35 million tons [8]. - **Sugar Imports**: In June, the sugar import volume was 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window has opened [8]. 3.5 Price Data - **Sugar Basis**: On July 22, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 397, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 28; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 267, with a daily increase of 17 and a weekly decrease of 3 [9]. - **Sugar Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 0.35%; the closing price of SR09 was 5834, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.45% [9]. - **Sugar Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 6050, with no daily or weekly change; the price of Kunming sugar was 5920, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [10]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4482, with a daily decrease of 101 and a weekly increase of 68; the out - of - quota import price was 5693, with a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly increase of 88 [11].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Attention should be paid to China's purchases and weather in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the far - month supply - demand gap is the focus for layout [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include Sino - US peace talks expectations, strong far - month bullish sentiment in the weather market, and cost support from Brazil's export premium for far - month contracts. Bearish factors involve spot supply pressure on the basis, expected soybean arrivals, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed issue and potential supply recovery of rapeseed [5][6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are as follows: Soybean meal 01 closed at 3116, up 12 (0.39%); Soybean meal 05 at 2769, up 9 (0.33%); Soybean meal 09 at 3095, up 9 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 01 at 2444, up 7 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 05 at 2383, up 6 (0.25%); Rapeseed meal 09 at 2758, up 22 (0.8%) [7][9]. Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, are presented in the report. For example, the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 347, up 3 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.7627 and a weekly decrease of 0.004. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40.4599 and a weekly increase of 0.9124. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.36% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][9]. - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 1.04%, while the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.38%. The Nanhua Metal Index had the largest decline of -1.01%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.74% [1][9]. - Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.23%, and the Economic Crops Index had the smallest increase of 0.08%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -1.56%, and the Energy Index had the smallest decline of -0.15% [1][9]. - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the largest decline was seen in carbonate with a decline of -4.8% [9]. 2. Some Single - Variety Index Data - Palm oil had a change of 0.76% and -0.35%, rapeseed oil had -0.22% and -0.02%, and corn had -0.04% [4]. - In the energy - chemical sector, synthetic ammonia had a decline of -3.04%, vinyl chloride had -2.07%, polyethylene had -1.12%, PTA had -0.21%, and crude oil had -0.12% [9]. 3. Other Information - The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates price changes during contract roll - over and reflects the actual return on investing in commodity futures [5]. - The calculation method of contribution is the product of the daily change rate and the weight, and the contribution of a certain variety is calculated as the daily change rate of the variety divided by the sum of the daily change rates of all varieties [5].