1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The trading sentiment in the bond market has declined. Trading desks are advised to temporarily wait and see. Although the market sentiment has recovered in the afternoon, it's hard to say that the market has bottomed out. Trading desks are recommended to be cautious, and if they participate, they need to set stop - losses and conduct quick trades. Allocation desks should seize the opportunities brought by the decline [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - **Futures Prices**: On July 23, 2025, TS2509 was at 102.38 (down 0.034 from the previous day), TF2509 at 105.805 (down 0.08), T2509 at 108.53 (down 0.105), and TL2509 at 119.35 (down 0.17) [5] - **Contract Positions**: TS contract positions decreased by 2168 to 117,449 hands, TF decreased by 786 to 206,013 hands, T decreased by 1759 to 237,147 hands, and TL increased by 1741 to 156,443 hands [5] - **Base Spreads**: TS base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0014 to - 0.0039, TF decreased by 0.0348 to - 0.0126, T decreased by 0.0416 to - 0.0118, and TL decreased by 0.2093 to 0.1316 [5] - **Trading Volumes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 11,189 to 46,570 hands, TF increased by 28,276 to 87,176 hands, T increased by 41,699 to 115,034 hands, and TL increased by 38,773 to 154,682 hands [5] - **Interest Rates**: DR001 was at 1.3144% (down 0.0465), DR007 at 1.4741% (down 0.016), and DR014 at 1.5422% (down 0.002) [5] - **Interest Rate Trading Volumes**: DR001 trading volume was 28,815.399 billion yuan (up 1427.9833 billion), DR007 was 735.7825 billion yuan (up 24.3853 billion), and DR014 was 142.8005 billion yuan (up 12.521 billion) [5] 3.2. Intraday News - The Supreme People's Court issued the "Interpretation on the Application of Laws in the Trial of Cases Concerning Disputes over Execution Objections," which refines and specifies the protection of the rights and interests of commercial housing consumers and will take effect on July 24, 2025 [3] 3.3. Market Analysis - The bond market was still suppressed by risk assets during the day. In the commodity market, prices fell in the afternoon due to rumors. The anti - involution logic has been the main line of the recent market, but as prices have continued to rise and the market has become extreme, the sentiment needs to be released. In the A - share market, the sentiment also cooled in the afternoon, with sectors such as building materials, construction, and electricity leading the decline [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The futures prices of the container shipping index (European routes) are expected to briefly return to a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and changes in the spot cabin quotes on European routes [2]. 3. Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy - For companies with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1800 - 1900 to lock in profits [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins according to orders and prevent rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to set the booking cost in advance [1]. Market Performance - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European routes) opened with a volatile downward trend and then rebounded slightly. At the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed results [2]. - For the EC2510 contract, long - positions increased by 1029 lots to 26261 lots, short - positions increased by 845 lots to 31963 lots, and trading volume decreased by 2955 lots to 79201 lots (bilateral) [2]. Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - The spot cabin quotes on European routes of MSC and COSCO Shipping in mid - early August have increased [3]. - Israeli Defense Minister Katz said that Israel may attack Iran again, which has a slight positive impact on market sentiment [5]. Negative Factors - Maersk's new weekly opening quotes on European routes have significantly decreased compared to the previous week [4]. EC Basis Changes - On July 23, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 160.80 points, with a daily increase of 10.00 points and a weekly decrease of 108.14 points; EC2510 was 863.50 points, with a daily increase of 11.00 points and a weekly increase of 39.66 points; EC2512 was 698.70 points, with a daily increase of 6.90 points and a weekly increase of 35.76 points [4]. Spot Cabin Quotes - Maersk's 20GP and 40GP total quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in late July and early August increased compared to the previous period. MSC and COSCO Shipping's 20GP and 40GP total quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in mid - early August also increased compared to the previous week [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European route index decreased by 0.89% to 2400.5 points, the SCFIS US - West route index increased by 2.78% to 1301.81 points. Other indexes also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [9]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of Hong Kong, Shanghai, and other ports on July 22, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships on July 22, 2025, increased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained unchanged at 30, less than 7 in the same period last year [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue to strengthen as various sentiment indicators are positive [2]. - Treasury bond trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy to be fully implemented after important meetings. There may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market after the policy is implemented and emotions are released [2][3][4]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices may continue to oscillate and decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may face risks in the medium term. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. Zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by macro - emotions, and the trend needs to pay attention to the fermentation of macro - emotions. Tin prices are expected to follow the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, and there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads. Lead is expected to oscillate [6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][21][22]. - The steel and hot - rolled coil market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant. Iron ore is driven by expectations, and its price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of 9 - 1 reverse spreads. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are driven by the "anti - involution" policy and are expected to run strongly in the short term. Methanol is recommended to be observed. PP and PE are affected by the cost side and macro - policies, with resistance to price increases and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern respectively. PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" emotion and is recommended to avoid risks. Fuel oil is in a weak adjustment, low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure and should be observed, asphalt is adjusted weakly following the cost side, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. - Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and glass is expected to remain strong. Logs have a relatively independent market, and pulp may break through and can be cautiously chased long if it breaks through effectively. Caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [54][55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, live pigs are recommended to be shorted at high prices and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged. Oilseeds are recommended to be long - allocated in the far - month contracts. Corn and starch are expected to oscillate narrowly. Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. Sugar is under short - term pressure. Apples are expected to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1756 at 16:30, up 12 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1695 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1460, up 62 basis points [1]. - The current market has no obvious expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and the foreign exchange market transactions are rational and orderly. The external environment shows that the rapid depreciation stage of the US dollar index is likely to have ended, but the overall weak trend is expected to continue. Domestically, the central bank is likely to continue to adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + discretionary decision - making" [1]. Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index continued to strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1930.58 billion yuan. The futures index increased in volume. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the water conservancy, steel, and building materials sectors led the rise [2]. - With positive sentiment indicators and relatively calm news, the stock index is expected to continue to strengthen [2]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures opened strongly, oscillated narrowly, then dived and closed down. The short - end was relatively strong, and the liquidity improved, with the capital interest rate returning to the key level of 1.3% [2]. - With the strong performance of risk assets and the decline of treasury bond futures prices, trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy. After the policy is implemented and emotions are released, there may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market [2][3][4]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated downward. Affected by commodity emotions, they rebounded slightly and then continued to decline [4]. - On July 31, the total quote of Maersk's 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by $10 compared with the previous value, and the 40GP increased by $20. On August 7, the opening quotes of 20GP and 40GP decreased compared with the previous week [4]. - The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper Index maintained a high - level oscillation on Tuesday. The anti - involution policy has an impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium term [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.75% on the previous trading day, and the price of alumina increased by 6.07%. The price of casting aluminum alloy increased by 0.90%. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level [8][9][10][11]. - **Zinc**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc increased by 0.01% on the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to change from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [11][13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel increased by 1.52% during the day, and the main contract of stainless steel increased by 0.47%. The current market is mainly affected by macro - emotions, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [15]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai Tin Index showed a V - shaped trend on Tuesday. Tin prices are affected by the anti - involution policy, but the fundamentals remain stable. It is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain strengthened, and the cost support was enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose by the daily limit. Affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads [19][20]. - **Lead**: The main contract of Shanghai Lead decreased by 0.02% on the previous trading day. The supply of lead is in a tight - balance state, and it is difficult to synchronize with the anti - involution policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The coking coal market led to a rise in the steel market. The market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by news and expectations, the price of iron ore followed the rise of coking coal. The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets rose by the daily limit. The production of domestic coking coal mines is gradually recovering, and the import is expected to increase. The coking industry is under cost pressure, and the demand for coke is supported in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese have improved, and the production enterprises have a certain driving force to resume production. However, the growth space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The market is expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The prices of New York and London crude oil futures decreased, and the SC crude oil main contract also closed down at night. The market is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline [33][34]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - PTA industry chain has limited fundamental driving forces. The macro "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [35][36][37]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply of ethylene glycol has frequent accidents, and the demand is weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" emotion, the overall trend is strong. The bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39][40]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract closed at 2450 on Tuesday. The port inventory continued to accumulate. It is recommended to observe due to strong macro - emotions [41][42]. - **PP**: The PP 2509 contract increased. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the trading volume has increased, the price increase faces resistance [43][44]. - **PE**: The PE 2509 contract increased. The supply has a high level of maintenance, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [45][46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price increased sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" emotion and the expectation of eliminating outdated chemical devices. Although the fundamentals are poor, the anti - involution value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks [47][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak adjustment. The supply is still tight, and the demand has increased in some areas. The Singapore and Malaysian floating - storage inventories are at a high level [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The supply has decreased overseas, and the demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to observe in the short term [51]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is adjusted weakly following the cost side. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory structure is being adjusted, and the market is expected to improve in the peak season [51][52]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract closed at 1810 on Tuesday. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. However, the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [53]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and the glass market is expected to remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy [54][55]. Others - **Logs**: The main contract of logs closed at 838, with a decrease of 4 and a reduction of 2264 lots. The market is relatively independent, and the spot price is stable. The current price is slightly overvalued [57][58]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp closed at 5368, with an increase of 40. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the price has risen. If it can break through effectively, it can be cautiously chased long [59]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda 2509 contract closed at 2658, with an increase of 3.46%. The inventory has increased slightly, and the market is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [60]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The LH2509 contract closed at 14380, with a daily increase of 0.1%. The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply is still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices and arrange appropriate reverse spreads [62][63]. Oilseeds - The external market of US soybeans oscillated after a rebound, and the domestic near - month contracts were strong, and the far - month contracts also followed the rise. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively abundant, and the demand for domestic soybean meal has neutral support. The supply of rapeseed meal has a short - term rhythm problem, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery of the rapeseed sector [64]. - It is recommended to long - allocate far - month contracts [65][66]. Corn and Starch - The CBOT corn futures closed down, and the Dalian corn starch oscillated. The prices of corn and starch in different regions were stable. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the auction成交 rate [66]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures rose nearly 0.5% overnight. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the domestic cotton inventory is low, which supports the cotton price. However, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season [67]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the import quota policy and inventory changes [67][68]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term sugar price is under pressure [69][70]. Apples - The apple futures price increased slightly. The spot price of apples in different regions is stable. Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales volume is limited. The inventory is at a low level in the past five years. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [71].

聚酯产业风险管理日报：煤价拉升推动成本上行 2025/07/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4000-4600 | 16.16% | 29.4% | | PX | 6400-7300 | 22.35% | 70.5% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 19.77% | 51.8% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6400 | 16.46% | 50.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

油脂油料产业周报 ——情绪偏强 2025/07/22 南华研究院农产品研究团队 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国际油料整体观点 对于全球大豆，美豆由于中美和谈预期影响以及美豆产区南部和中西部高温偏干天气影响而反弹，但目前看 产区未来两周略受到高温与降雨偏少影响，但从月度预估来看可能将在后续得到缓解，继续高频关注天气为 主。 对于美国大豆，新作种植方面，美中西部本周优良率超市场预期下调，美国大豆优良率为68%，低于市场预 期的71%，前一周为70%，上年同期为68%，主要由于西南部堪萨斯（从69%降到64%，下降了5个百分 点）、内布拉斯加持续高温，优良率提前下调至可能影响后期鼓粒；种植进度方面仍保持顺利进行，美国大 豆开花率为62%，上一周为47%，上年同期为63%，五年均值为63%。美国大豆结英率为26%，上一周为 15%，上年同期为27%，五年均值为26%。 NOPA公布6月美豆压榨绩效创同期新高，6月预估高于去年36万吨至536万吨，受国内豆油消费增长驱动， 美豆油库存进一步走低，低至62万吨。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was strong, rising and then falling, and pulling up again at the end of the session, mainly affected by macro - level sentiment. The inventory of nickel ore arriving in ports from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore, and there was limited driving force for short - term price increases at the ore end. The transaction price of ferronickel decreased again during the day, but the latest transactions of iron plants in August showed a certain upward shift. With the stabilization of ferronickel, it would support the subsequent downstream prices. Stainless steel was also affected by the market and showed a strong trend. Large manufacturers still had the sentiment of reducing production, and spot prices generally followed the increase, but the policy had limited actual impact on stainless steel, and the spot - end transactions did not improve significantly with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The new energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3]. - There were positive factors such as the continuation of the cobalt mine ban in Congo, Indonesia's APNI's plan to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt, shortening the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, potential impact of Indonesia - US tariff negotiations on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming release of the growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Negative factors included stainless steel entering the traditional off - season of demand with slow inventory reduction [4]. - The contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepened, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The inventory of pure nickel was high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore increased, weakening the bottom support [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai Nickel was 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - For inventory management, when the product sales price declined and there was a risk of inventory value reduction, one could short Shanghai Nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a selling ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options with a selling ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2; or buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3. For procurement management, when the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it could sell put options with a selling ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1; or buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2]. Market Data Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest values of Shanghai Nickel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 123,530, 123,720, 123,810, and 124,050 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 1%, 0.83%, 0.81%, and 0.81%. The LME nickel 3M was at 15,510 US dollars/ton, up 0.85%. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, down 19.11%, the open interest was 35,618 lots, down 14.21%, the number of warehouse receipts was 22,093 tons, down 0.08%, and the basis of the main contract was - 1,250 yuan/ton, up 197.6% [5]. - For stainless steel, the latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous one, continuous two, and continuous three were 12,930, 12,930, 12,960, and 13,005 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0%, 0.19%, 0.15%, and 0.19%. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, down 24.69%, the open interest was 124,058 lots, up 1.17%, the number of warehouse receipts was 103,475 tons, down 0.12%, and the basis of the main contract was 240 yuan/ton, down 9.43% [6]. Inventory Data - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 tons, an increase of 216 tons; the stainless steel social inventory was 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons; and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - Price Range Forecast (Monthly) for Polyethylene: 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 8.05%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 3.7% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7400 - 7450 yuan/ton; Sell L2509C7500 call options with a 50% ratio at 50 - 80 [3] Procurement Management - For low regular procurement inventory: Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton; Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% ratio at 30 - 80 [3] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Polyolefin market strengthened in the afternoon due to coking coal prices and positive policy signals. PE has a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation. Weak reality: PE spot is weak, basis is below - 100, and inventory is rising. Strong expectation: limited capacity increase recently and upcoming downstream peak season in late July to early August. PE month - spread changed from back to contango and is expected to continue until positive feedback from the spot market [4] Group 4:利多解读 - Positive factors: Macro - sentiment driven rise; LLDPE supply pressure eased by some full - density device rotation and low HDPE inventory; Potential reduction in PE imports from Iran due to Israel - Iran conflict [5] Group 5:利空解读 - Negative factors: Multiple HDPE device planned to be put into production in the middle of the year; Upstream price cuts lead to weak spot prices; PE inventory has been rising for two consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic main basis on July 22, 2025: - 118 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous day and 132 yuan/ton from a week ago. L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased by 83, 105, and 78 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [7] - L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads changed by - 22, 27, and - 5 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9] - L - P spread was 200 yuan/ton on July 22, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7140, 7270, and 7280 yuan/ton respectively on July 22, 2025. East - North and East - South spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - HDPE film - LLDPE film, HDPE hollow - LLDPE film, HDPE injection - LLDPE film, HDPE drawing - LLDPE film, and LDPE film - LLDPE film spreads changed by - 10, - 10, - 35, - 10, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel on July 22, 2025; US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon; Northwest coal price was 485 yuan/ton; East China methanol price was 2450 yuan/ton [9] - Oil - based, coal - based, externally - purchased methanol - based, externally - purchased ethane - based, and externally - purchased ethylene - based PE profits changed by 763.5293, 10, 10, 13.4548, and 431.9967 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月22日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 40.8% | 1.61% | 96.8% | 0.0% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 47.86% | 3.38% | 85.40% | 3.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 | ...

市场回顾 今日股指继续走强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1930.58亿元。期指均 放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 人社部：持续推动扩大基本养老保险基金委托投资规模 核心观点 股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月22日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 连涨，沪深300、中证500均创年内新高 如我们昨日预期，今日股指延续上涨，沪深300指数、中证500指数皆创年内新高，两市成交额大幅放量接近 1.9万亿元。受反内卷政策以及雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工消息影响，昨日领涨的水利、钢铁、建材板块今 日继续领涨。从期货指标来看，今日各品种期指成交量加权基差均上涨，持仓量放量，表明多头入场。当前 消息面相对平淡，各项情绪指标均向好的情况下，股指预计延续走强。 策略推荐 多头持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 1.12 | 0.90 | 1.15 | 0.66 | | 成交量（万手 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have been rising recently due to the boost of the macro - atmosphere, despite the weak fundamentals and lack of confidence in chasing the rise. The current demand peak season has not arrived, and the domestic anti - involution has not affected the paper - making industry, so the upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market is at a critical point of breakthrough. If it can break through effectively, it is advisable to cautiously follow up on the long side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile of 58.0% over 3 years [2]. 3.2 Pulp Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high coniferous pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Management**: Paper - making enterprises with low inventory can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5368 (+40) today, with a 0.75% increase. In the spot market, the price of Shandong Yinxing is 5920 yuan/ton, Shandong Russian Needle is 5300 yuan/ton, and Shandong Goldfish is 4100 yuan/ton, all unchanged. The trading activity in the pulp spot market is low, and prices remain stable. The futures price is mainly driven up by macro factors [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - The factors that are favorable for the pulp market are the significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Negative Factors Analysis") - The continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes is a negative factor for the market [5]. 3.6 Pulp Price Quotes - **Futures Contracts**: On July 22, 2025, SP2509 was at 5368 yuan/ton, SP2511 was at 5326 yuan/ton, and sp2601 was at 5502 yuan/ton, with different price changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **CFR Quotes**: On July 21, 2025, the CFR quote for coniferous pulp was 870 US dollars/ton, and for broad - leaf pulp was 800 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [5]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 22, 2025, domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper showed different price trends, with some remaining stable and some having slight changes [7].