股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月2日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 重要资讯 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更宽松的货币 政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于数据。他表示，美联 储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 2.中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 核心观点 今日两市成交额延续缩量，中小盘指数终结连涨，回落调整。如我们昨日所言，持续缩量下，指数上行动能 减弱，难以维持上行趋势。昨日中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，受此影响，相关板块例如海洋经济板块今 日大涨。当前信息面较平淡，红利指数连续两日领涨，表明市场情绪偏谨慎。不过今日各期指均贴水收敛， 尤其IC、IM贴水收敛幅度较大，可见市场对指数未来走势不算悲观，下方空间有限，预计短期区间震荡为 主。本月重点关注7月下旬召开的中央政治局，将分析下半年经济形势，部署宏观政策方向，或对股指产生一 定影响。 策略推荐 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle logic of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous pressure of oversupply. The supply may increase as the wet season approaches, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is mixed, and it is necessary to wait for the inventory to reach a healthy level [3]. - Polysilicon is in the logic of strong supply and weak demand. The photovoltaic rush has overdrafted some future demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the situation of the polysilicon industry [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.2%, a daily increase of 4.11%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 95.9% [2]. - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 445 yuan (5.73%); the trading volume is 1,643,648 lots, with a daily increase of 413,341 lots (33.60%); the open interest is 386,361 lots, with a daily increase of 25,285 lots (7.00%) [9]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when the product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short the futures (SI2509) with a hedging ratio of 30%, sell call options (70%), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there is a production plan and a risk of raw material price increase, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include limited short - term cost collapse space, low profit valuation, and increased probability of supply - side disturbances; downstream enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season will reduce production costs and increase profits, promoting production enthusiasm [6]. - Bearish factors include the approaching wet season leading to increased production capacity in Southwest China and the possible joint production cuts of downstream polysilicon enterprises, weakening demand [7]. Spot and Basis - The latest price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.76%); the basis of East China 553 is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-40.14%) [14]. - The latest price of East China 421 industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.7%); the basis of East China 421 is 740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-28.5%) [14]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots (-0.78%) [23]. Polysilicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the polysilicon futures main contract is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.74%, a daily increase of 8.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 83.73% [2]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 35,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,350 yuan (7.19%); the trading volume is 411,586 lots, with a daily increase of 150,096 lots (57.40%); the open interest is 95,005 lots, with a daily increase of 33,809 lots (55.25%) [25]. Risk Management Strategies - Similar to industrial silicon, for inventory management, short the futures (PS2509) and use options strategies; for procurement management, buy long - term futures contracts and use options strategies [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include possible future production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry and the market's trading of the phenomenon of futures - end positions and warehouse receipts [6]. - Bearish factors include the failure of polysilicon enterprise integration and elimination, and the increase in production due to low raw material prices and the approaching wet season [7]. Spot and Basis - The price of polysilicon spot has increased. For example, the price of re - feeding material is 32.5 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1 yuan (3.17%) [31]. - The basis of the polysilicon futures main contract is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan (-26.92%) [31]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 2,600 lots, a decrease of 180 lots compared to the previous day [35]. Other Related Data - The silicon chain index is 0.3577, with a daily increase of 0.0279 (8.46%) [32].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年07月02日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569) 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703) 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 震荡区间59000-62000 | 21.4% | 26.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2509 | 卖出 | 70% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 30% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 管理 | 未来有采购计划 ...

南华贵金属日报: 维持高位震荡 关注周四晚非农 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月2日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场金涨银震。周边资产看，美股涨跌不一，美债收益率低位震荡，美指震荡偏弱，比特币下 跌，原油震荡。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3349.9美元/盎司，+1.28%；美白银2509合约收报于36.245 美元/盎司，+0.2%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报776.1元/克，+1.47%；SHFE白银2508合约收8810元/千 克，+1.11%。万斯"一票破局"，美国参议院惊险通过"大漂亮"法案，接下来还有众议院投票关；其中美 参院终版"大漂亮"法案不含进口相关组件新征。贸易关税方面，美国缩小谈判目标以避免重启关税，不追 求"全面、一步到位"的协议；特朗普再发对日本关税警告，35%或更高，不考虑推迟7月9日"大限"；美 印最快本周达成临时贸易协定，秋季前敲定全面协议第一阶段内容。周二晚间鲍威尔在全球主要央行行长会 议上表示，未排除7月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将对通胀有影响。数据方面，周二晚间公布的美 6月IS ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of China-US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the lower-than-expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 269,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.08%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data - The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 269,840 yuan/ton, 269,840 yuan/ton, and 269,520 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 185 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.55%. The Shanghai-London ratio is 7.92, with a daily decrease of 0.09 and a daily decrease rate of -1.12% [6] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, and various types of solder bars and lead-free solder have different weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.06% [9] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,263.89 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 948.87 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -5.51%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [14] Inventory Data - The latest warehouse receipt quantities of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (total, Guangdong, and Shanghai) and the LME tin inventory have different daily changes. For example, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,750 tons, with a daily increase of 199 tons and a daily increase rate of 3.04% [16]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.54%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 11.2% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), suggest selling 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and selling 25% of the call option CU2508C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), suggest buying 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors Important News - The copper fundamentals remain stable [3] Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and an increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); Shanghai Copper consecutive first contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan (0.96%); Shanghai Copper consecutive third contract: 80,100 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); LME Copper 3M: 9,943 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars (0.66%); Shanghai - London ratio: 7.95, up 0.04 (0.51%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 80,205 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (0.27%); Shanghai Wumaotrade: 80,160 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (0.28%); Guangdong Nanchu: 80,110 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.28%); Yangtze Non - ferrous: 80,360 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan (0.34%) [9] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 2,161.28 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.41%); reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,501.4 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan (0.02%); price advantage (tax - included): 659.88 yuan/ton, up 29.7 yuan (4.71%) [11] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 25,851 tons, up 505 tons (1.99%); total International Copper warehouse receipts: 2,503 tons, no change (0%) [14] Inventories - LME copper inventory: total 91,250 tons, up 625 tons (0.69%); COMEX copper inventory: total 211,209 tons, up 7,874 tons (3.87%) [16][18] 7. Copper Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 1,484.84 yuan/ton, down 623.83 yuan (- 29.58%); copper concentrate TC: - 43.57 US dollars/ton, no change (0%) [19]

观点：持仓观望，不建议追高 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货日报 2025年7月1日 资金面依然偏紧 source： wind,同花顺,南华研究 T主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 T净基差：主连 T基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘后窄幅震荡，盘中启动价格走高，午后先下后上最终长端明显收涨。现券方面日内节奏跟期货 基本一致，早盘盘中和下午收盘前是利率有所回落，结构上，受资金面影响，日内短债弱于长端。公开市场 方面，今日7天期逆回购到期4065亿，央行新做1310亿，净回笼2755亿元 日内消息： 1.中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 行情研判： 日内资金依旧偏紧，尽管从资金价格来看，DR001加权回到1.36%，DR007下行37bp回到1.54%，交易所资 金价格也都明显回落，但盘中经纪商报价隔夜依旧在1.5%以上，早盘资金面情绪指数偏高，指向流动性并没 有完全回归充裕状态。午后随着 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index continued to rise, with the CSI 300 index closing up 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.842 billion yuan. Among the stock index futures, IF decreased in volume, IH and IC increased in volume, and IM decreased in volume. [2] Group 3: Important News - Tariff Announcement: With only 10 days left until the "tariff deadline" on July 9, Trump clearly stated that there is no need to extend the upcoming tariff deadline. He will directly send letters to hundreds of countries to notify them of the tariff rates and will no longer conduct individual trade negotiations. [3] Group 4: Core View - Market Outlook: The stock index continued to rise today, but the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink. There is a lack of positive information to drive the index up, and the future strength of the RMB exchange rate remains to be seen. The market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of this round of the stock index rise is uncertain. If the trading volume continues to shrink and the upward momentum weakens, a short - term adjustment is expected. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold and wait for further development [5] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.03 | 7.0001 | -0.8991 | 23.8772 | -0.5835 | | IH | 0.08 | 3.2102 | -0.8576 | 8.3173 | -0.2668 | | IC | 0.01 | 6.8686 | -0.2617 | 22.0821 | -0.054 | | IM | -0.36 | 18.1858 | 0.9846 | 32.7974 | 1.0329 | [5] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Index Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.11 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.03 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 146.6015 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | -20.842 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 1, 2025 - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0019531) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of asphalt remain resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. Affected by the decline in the risk premium of crude oil, the asphalt basis strengthened, and the crack spread also strengthened, still remaining in a high range. Looking forward, the overall supply is in the seasonal resumption of production, but limited by the poor profit of refined oil products and the limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. From August, the construction conditions in the north and south are good, and the overall construction enters the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 has accelerated, and the funds have been alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed to a certain extent, and the peak season is still expected [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3,400 - 3,750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.89%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 52.15% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot positions, to prevent inventory losses, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, for those with short spot positions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - Supply and demand are resilient. This week, production increased by 20.5% year - on - year, demand increased by 19% year - on - year, and sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased significantly, and social inventory changed little. The basis and crack spread strengthened but remained in a high range. Supply is in seasonal resumption, but limited by refined oil profit and local refinery profitability. Demand will enter the peak season in August, with improved funds and guaranteed project numbers [3] 利多解读 - Not provided in the report 利空解读 - Short - term demand is dragged down by the plum rain season in the south; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the regression of the war premium of crude oil [5] Price and Basis Crack Spread - The daily and weekly changes in spot prices in different regions (Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, South China) are different. The basis and crack spread of different regions also show different daily and weekly changes [6] Seasonal Charts - Include asphalt 09 contract basis seasonality in different regions (Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, Shandong, North China), asphalt futures month - to - month spreads (06 - 09, 09 - 12) seasonality, and the seasonality of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates [9][14][15] Other Data - Include the total number of combined orders and the total number of warehouse receipts of asphalt [19]