2025/07/03 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 32.77% | 85.0% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 20.98% | 19.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高， | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | FG250 9 | 卖出 | 50% | 1050 | | 璃 | 管理 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月3日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 震荡偏强，关注后续量能情况 市场回顾 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额减少672.34亿元。期指方 面，IF、H缩量上涨，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为增长9.8万人，5月份数据 在向下修正后仅增加2.9万人。 2. 证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜 力的领域高效集聚。 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | 0.18 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | 1.17 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 1.75 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 13097.34 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | -672.34 | source： wind,南华研究 两市融资买入额/两市成交额 source： 同花顺,南华研究 % 两融交易额占A股交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1] - There are no new contradictions in the news and fundamentals of nickel, and it is digesting recent sentiment. The nickel ore benchmark price in July was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support. The transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, affected by weak downstream demand. For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels and sell call options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60% for futures and 50% for options [2] - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan and sell put options, and also buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel is oscillating strongly. There are no new contradictions in news and fundamentals, mainly digesting recent sentiment [3] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support [3] - The intraday transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, mainly affected by weak downstream demand [3] - For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts [3] - The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] 3.利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The ban on cobalt mines in Congo continues [4] - Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons [4] - Policies have a positive impact on the overall new energy chain [4] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [4] 4.利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [5] - The contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain have deepened, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [5] - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered [6] 5. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 570 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume increased by 14.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.73% [6] - For stainless steel, the latest price of the main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume decreased by 20.00%, and the open interest decreased by 0.10% [7] 6. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period [8] - The LME nickel inventory is 203,628 tons, a decrease of 474 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 992.1 tons, a decrease of 8.5 tons [8] - The inventory of nickel pig iron is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The market has strong expectations for supply - side reform policies after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, which has boosted the prices of iron alloys. However, the current market shows a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. Although there is a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price - pressure and weakening costs. In the long - term, with the steel consumption entering the off - season, the iron alloy market remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory and high - supply negative factors are weakening, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with a low pressure. The iron alloy will continue the de - stocking trend, but the speed has slowed down. There are expectations of electricity price cuts and a decline in manganese ore prices in July. The iron alloy is expected to run weakly, but due to the decline in positions and low valuations, it may be disturbed by news in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.4% [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SF2509 and SM2509 futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Policy expectations from the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting have boosted iron alloy prices, but the market faces a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mill price - pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of steel consumption. However, de - stocking continues, and there are expectations of cost reduction. In the short - term, rebounds may occur, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3] 3.4利多解读 (Positive Analysis) Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot - metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron. Also, due to the continuous price decline, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [6] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. Similar to silicon iron, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [7] 3.5利空解读 (Negative Analysis) Silicon Iron - There is a possibility of increased production due to profit repair. The electricity cost of iron alloys is expected to decline further. The inventory of iron enterprises is 69,400 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period, and the silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [11] Silicon Manganese - In the long - term, the real - estate market slump and the decline of the black sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises is 39.21%, a 2.82% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output is 179,200 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period [12] 3.6 Daily Data Silicon Iron - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [8] Silicon Manganese - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of asphalt remains resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. [3] - The asphalt basis strengthened and the cracking strengthened due to the decline in crude oil risk premium, still remaining in a high - level range. [3] - In the future, the supply side is in seasonal resumption of production, but limited by poor refined oil profits and limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. The demand side will enter the peak construction season in August, and the progress of local government debt resolution in 2025 has accelerated, with some relief in funds. The peak season is still expected. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.66%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 51.03%. [2] 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton. [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Supply**: Overall in seasonal resumption of production, but limited by poor refined oil profits and limited profitability of local refineries, difficult to have a large increase. [3] - **Demand**: Construction conditions in the north and south will be good from August, entering the peak construction season. The progress of local government debt resolution in 2025 has accelerated, and funds have been alleviated. [3] 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **Lido Factors**: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices; seasonal peak demand; low - level start - up and expected catch - up construction in the south. [8] - **Likong Factors**: Short - term drag on demand due to the plum - rain season in the south; easing of the Middle East situation and the return of the crude oil war premium; after the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered. [5][8] 3.5 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On July 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3820 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/day, up 15 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3760 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/day, unchanged/week), and the South China spot price was 3630 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/day, down 20 yuan/week). [6] - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot 09 was 232 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/day, down 10 yuan/week), the basis of the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 was 192 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/day, down 25 yuan/week), etc. [6] - **Cracking**: The cracking of Shandong spot to Brent was 166.6122 yuan/barrel (up 0.8664 yuan/day, down 14.7646 yuan/week), and the cracking of the futures main contract to Brent was 126.4093 yuan/barrel (up 2.9459 yuan/day, down 13.0317 yuan/week). [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation, but the short - term trend has strengthened. The support level for London gold is 3330, with a key support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3365 and then 3400. The support for London silver has moved up to 36.2, and the resistance is in the range of 36.6 - 36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally strong. Peripheral assets such as US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar index, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all performed well. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.08%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 776.04 yuan per gram, up 0.7%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8747 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill was blocked in the House of Representatives, and the infighting within the Republican Party escalated. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data released on Wednesday evening was unexpectedly poor, with a decrease of 33,000, turning negative for the first time in more than three years, slightly increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut this year [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 52.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 0.57 tons to 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 42.4 tons to 14896.01 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 1338.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to the progress of the US House of Representatives' vote on Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill. Also, due to the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, COMEX precious metals trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 776.04 yuan per gram, down 0.01%; SGX gold TD was at 770.33 yuan per gram, down 0.22%; CME gold main contract was at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 8747 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%; SGX silver TD was at 8737 yuan per kilogram, down 0.77%; CME silver main contract was at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.5%. SHFE - TD gold was at 5.71 yuan per gram, up 40.64%; SHFE - TD silver was at 10 yuan per kilogram, down 85.29%; CME gold - silver ratio was 91.5656, down 0.93% [7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 18,456 kilograms, up 0.02%; CME gold inventory was 1152.3287 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 168,596 lots, up 0.68%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.66 tons, down 0.06%. SHFE silver inventory was 1338.659 tons, down 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15,557.4558 tons, down 0.2%; SGX silver inventory was 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%; SHFE silver holdings were 249,023 lots, down 5.93%; SLV silver holdings were 14,869.009712 tons, up 0.29% [17][18]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 96.7751, up 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1634, down 0.01%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,484.42 points, down 0.02%. WTI crude oil spot was at $67.45 per barrel, up 3.06%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,010 per ton, up 0.67%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.3%, up 0.94%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.52%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, up 8.33% [23].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 80,540 yuan/ton - Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility: 9.38% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 10.7% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot Exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 82,000 yuan/ton), Sell Call Options (25% when volatility is relatively stable) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract, CU2508C82000 - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot Exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract (75% at around 75,000 yuan/ton) - Hedging Tools: Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract - Buying/Selling Direction: Buy [2] Important News - The fundamentals remain stable [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino-US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Decrease in global demand due to tariff policies - The Fed maintains high interest rates - Low dollar index - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 80,540 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 80,540 yuan/ton, -100 change, -0.12% change rate - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 80,050 yuan/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate - LME Copper 3M: 10,010 dollars/ton, 67 change, 0.67% change rate - Shanghai-London Ratio: 7.96, 0.01 change, 0.13% change rate [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Nonferrous 1 Copper: 80,990 yuan/ton, 785 change, 0.98% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui: 80,890 yuan/ton, 730 change, 0.91% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu: 80,880 yuan/ton, 770 change, 0.96% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous: 81,050 yuan/ton, 690 change, 0.86% change rate - Shanghai Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 120 yuan/ton, -80 change, -40% change rate - Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount: 90 yuan/ton, -50 change, -35.71% change rate - Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount: 130 yuan/ton, -30 change, -18.75% change rate - Yangtze Nonferrous Premium/Discount: 155 yuan/ton, -70 change, -31.11% change rate [9] Copper Scrap Price Difference - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 2,402.98 yuan/ton, 241.7 change, 11.18% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-included): 1,510.2 yuan/ton, 8.8 change, 0.59% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-included): 892.78 yuan/ton, 232.9 change, 35.29% change rate - Current Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 7,120 yuan/ton, 280 change, 4.09% change rate - Reasonable Scrap Price Difference (Tax-excluded): 6,322.79 yuan/ton, 61.07 change, 0.98% change rate - Price Advantage (Tax-excluded): 797.21 yuan/ton, 218.93 change, 37.86% change rate [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,403 tons, -100 change, -4% change rate - Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai: 14,905 tons, 101 change, 0.68% change rate - Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total Tax-paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,097 tons, 324 change, 1.31% change rate [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, -625 change, -0.68% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Europe: 31,350 tons, -125 change, -0.4% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in Asia: 59,900 tons, 750 change, 1.27% change rate - LME Copper Inventory in North America: 0 tons, 0 change, -100% change rate - Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 57,700 tons, -1,575 change, -2.66% change rate - Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 32,925 tons, 950 change, 2.97% change rate [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 212,139 tons, 7,823 change, 3.83% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts: 109,313 tons, 10,956 change, 0.06% change rate - Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 102,826 tons, 867 change, 0.85% change rate [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing - Copper Import Profit and Loss: -1,128.13 yuan/ton, 356.71 change, -24.02% change rate - Copper Concentrate TC: -43.57 dollars/ton, 0 change, 0% change rate [19]

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated July 3, 2025, prepared by the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The tin market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector's expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the potential slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion [3][4][5][6] Detailed Summaries Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,520 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.24%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 14.9% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, sell 100% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2508P245000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data (Daily) - Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three all closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, 268,520 yuan/ton, and 268,290 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M was at 33,625 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars (- 0.37%). The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92, down 0.09 (- 1.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots were at 268,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.44%); 1 tin premium was at 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan (- 42.86%); 40% tin concentrate was at 256,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.56%); 60% tin concentrate was at 260,500 yuan/ton, up 6,400 yuan (2.52%); 60A solder bar was at 174,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.05%); 63A solder bar was at 181,750 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan (2.25%); lead - free solder was at 274,750 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan (2.42%) [10][13] Import and Processing Data (Daily) - Tin import profit and loss was - 16,263.89 yuan/ton, up 948.87 yuan (- 5.51%); 40% tin ore processing fee was 12,200 yuan/ton, with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee was 10,550 yuan/ton, with no change [15] Inventory Data (Daily) - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts totaled 6,888 tons, up 122 tons (1.8%); Guangdong warehouse receipts were 4,270 tons, up 56 tons (1.33%); Shanghai warehouse receipts were 1,693 tons, up 66 tons (4.06%); LME tin inventory totaled 2,175 tons, down 45 tons (- 2.03%) [20]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View - The SP2509 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions today, closing at 5076, up 0.56%. From a supply - demand perspective, the weakness persists. The falling external quotes and high - fluctuating imports suppress price increases. High port inventories and weak demand in the off - season make de - stocking difficult and create large inventory pressure. Although there will be a peak demand season after August with some stocking needs, it hasn't started yet. However, the current absolute price is at a low level, and continuous price drops may touch the upper edge of overseas pulp mills' cost lines, which will resist further price declines. With the policy influence of the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st, the commodity has short - term upward rebound momentum due to sentiment. The strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 20.91%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 68.0% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those with high coniferous pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4900 - 5100 [3] Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and macro - policy support [5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Continuous decline in overseas pulp quotes [5] Price Quotes - **Futures Contracts**: On July 2, 2025, SP2507 was at 5048 yuan/ton (down 0.24% week - on - week), SP2509 was at 5072 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and SP2511 was at 5068 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - **CFR Quotes**: On July 1, 2025, coniferous pulp was at 870 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and broad - leaf pulp was at 800 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Various types of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp in different regions showed price changes on July 2, 2025, with most showing slight declines [5] - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: Copper - plate paper was at 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), white - card paper was at 4410 yuan/ton (up 1.15% week - on - week), tissue paper was at 5900 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and offset paper was at 5700 yuan/ton (down 1.72% week - on - week) [7]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月2日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 重要资讯 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更宽松的货币 政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于数据。他表示，美联 储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 2.中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 核心观点 今日两市成交额延续缩量，中小盘指数终结连涨，回落调整。如我们昨日所言，持续缩量下，指数上行动能 减弱，难以维持上行趋势。昨日中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，受此影响，相关板块例如海洋经济板块今 日大涨。当前信息面较平淡，红利指数连续两日领涨，表明市场情绪偏谨慎。不过今日各期指均贴水收敛， 尤其IC、IM贴水收敛幅度较大，可见市场对指数未来走势不算悲观，下方空间有限，预计短期区间震荡为 主。本月重点关注7月下旬召开的中央政治局，将分析下半年经济形势，部署宏观政策方向，或对股指产生一 定影响。 策略推荐 ...