Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is in a downward channel but the decline has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation. The short - term basis has been repaired. In the medium term, the weak expectation persists due to the concentrated resumption of maintenance and the gradual launch of new production capacity, which will significantly increase the supply - side pressure. Even if there is an increase in demand, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.20%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 5.1% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2400 - 2450 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2400) with a 50% ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 2200 - 2250 range to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SH509P2200) with a 50% ratio in the 50 - 60 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot buying price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Short - term contradictions are limited; in the medium - to - long term, there is production capacity launch pressure, and the overall expectation is weak [4]. 3.4利多解读 - The decline in spot prices has slowed, with a possible stabilization expectation; the near - end inventory is not high, and there are limited substantial contradictions [5]. 3.5利空解读 - In the medium - to - long term, there is an oversupply pressure. The supply side has a concentrated production capacity launch expectation, and the demand increment is insufficient to support a market reversal, which limits the upside [6]. 3.6 Caustic Soda Futures Prices and Spreads - **Futures Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2410 (up 27 or 1.13% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2358 (up 39 or 1.68%), and the 01 contract was 2354 (up 30 or 1.29%) [7]. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread was 52 (down 12 from the previous day), the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (up 9), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 (up 3) [7]. - **Basis**: The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 66 (down 58 from the previous day), and the 09 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was - 14 (down 70) [7]. 3.7 Caustic Soda Factory Prices and Market Prices - **32% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: On July 1, 2025, the prices of some brands in different regions changed. For example, Shandong Jinling's price was 2344 (down 31.25 or - 1.3% from the previous day), and Shandong Hengtong's was 2563 (down 63 or - 2.4%) [8]. - **50% Caustic Soda Factory Prices**: Jinling's price was 2380 (down 60 or - 2.5% from the previous day) [8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda Market Prices**: Prices in various regions remained unchanged on July 1, 2025, such as 3150 in Shandong, 3311 in North China, etc. [9]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Grade/Regional Spreads - On July 1, 2025, some spreads changed. For example, the spread between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda was 36 (down 28.75 from the previous day), and the spread between 50% caustic soda in Jiangsu and Shandong was 255 (down 103) [9]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Futures Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09, 01 contracts in Shandong) are provided [10][11][12][13].

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/7/1 周甫翰（Z0020173）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 14.32% | 28.1% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 14.62% | 23.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | | | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | 多 | 期 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 79,870 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 9.17%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 9.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Scenario: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Strategy: Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2508C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - Scenario: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Strategy: Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] News and Factors - Fundamental Situation: Stable [3] - Bullish Factors: Sino - US tariff policy easing and lower inventory levels [4] - Bearish Factors: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed keeping high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and increased Fed rate - cut expectations [5][6][8] Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper Main: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 1: 79,870 yuan/ton, daily change - 50, daily change rate - 0.06% - Shanghai Copper Continuous 3: 79,440 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - LME Copper 3M: 9,878 dollars/ton, daily change - 1, daily change rate - 0.01% - Shanghai - London Ratio: 7.91, daily change 0.08, daily change rate 1.02% [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper: 79,990 yuan/ton, daily change - 135, daily change rate - 0.17% - Shanghai Wumaotrade: 79,935 yuan/ton, daily change - 225, daily change rate - 0.28% - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 79,890 yuan/ton, daily change - 290, daily change rate - 0.36% - Yangtze Non - Ferrous: 80,090 yuan/ton, daily change - 210, daily change rate - 0.26% [9] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 2,131.28 yuan/ton, daily change 166.39, daily change rate 8.47% - Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 1,501.1 yuan/ton, daily change 0.6, daily change rate 0.04% - Tax - included Price Advantage: 630.18 yuan/ton, daily change 165.79, daily change rate 35.7% - Current Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,810 yuan/ton, daily change 160, daily change rate 2.41% - Reasonable Tax - Excluded Scrap - to - Refined Spread: 6,259.63 yuan/ton, daily change 4.16, daily change rate 0.07% - Tax - Excluded Price Advantage: 550.37 yuan/ton, daily change 155.84, daily change rate 39.5% [11] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts: 25,851 tons, daily change 505, daily change rate 1.99% - Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts: 2,503 tons, daily change 1,004, daily change rate 66.98% [14] LME Copper Inventory - Total LME Copper Inventory: 90,625 tons, change - 650, change rate - 0.71% - European LME Copper Inventory: 31,550 tons, change - 2,625, change rate - 7.68% - Asian LME Copper Inventory: 59,725 tons, change 825, change rate 1.4% - North American LME Copper Inventory: 0 tons, change 0, change rate - 100% [16] COMEX Copper Inventory - Total COMEX Copper Inventory: 209,281 tons, weekly change 8,084, weekly change rate 4.02% - Total COMEX Registered Warehouse Receipts: 110,017 tons, weekly change 10,551, weekly change rate 1.34% - Total COMEX Cancelled Warehouse Receipts: 99,264 tons, weekly change - 70, weekly change rate - 0.07% [18] Copper Import Profit and Processing Fees - Copper Import Profit and Loss: - 2,108.67 yuan/ton, daily change 881.22, daily change rate - 29.47% - Copper Concentrate TC: - 43.57 dollars/ton, daily change - 0.44, daily change rate 1.02% [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation. Short - term technical patterns show weakness and pressure, but the daily line has regained the $3300 level. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of this support. The next support is at $3250, and if it breaks, it may further decline to the previous low of $3120. The resistance is in the $3330 - 3350 area. London silver should focus on the support around $35.3, with strong support in the $34.5 - 35 area, and resistances at $36.2 and $36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals market rebounded after a decline. Among surrounding assets, the US stock market rose, the US Treasury yield declined, the US dollar index dropped, and Bitcoin fluctuated. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3315 per ounce, up 0.83%; COMEX silver 2509 contract closed at $36.33 per ounce, down 0.11%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.58 yuan per gram, down 0.62%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54% [2]. - In terms of trade tariffs, Trump said there was no need to extend the July 9 deadline and would set tariffs for each country, threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The EU was willing to accept the US "benchmark tariff" but sought exemptions for key industries. Canada made concessions and cancelled the digital service tax, and the US and Canada would resume trade negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21. South Korea's top priority was to obtain a tariff extension [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 79.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.2%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 75.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.8%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 24.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 60.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.7% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 952.53 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 39.58 tons to 14826.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1299.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3]. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. The US Senate is preparing to vote on the Trump administration's "Great Beauty" bill, aiming to pass it before July 4. On Tuesday at 21:30, central bank governors from major economies will have a panel discussion. On Friday, due to the US Independence Day holiday, COMEX precious metals trading will end at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 767.58 yuan per gram, up 1.18 yuan or 0.15%; SGX gold TD is at 764.15 yuan per gram, up 1.07 yuan or 0.14%; CME gold main contract is at $3315 per ounce, up $28.9 or 0.88%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 8762 yuan per kilogram, down 30 yuan or 0.34%; SGX silver TD is at 8728 yuan per kilogram, down 20 yuan or 0.23%; CME silver main contract is at $36.33 per ounce, up $0.165 or 0.46%. SHFE - TD gold is at 3.43 yuan per gram, up 0.11 yuan or 3.31%; SHFE - TD silver is at 34 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan or 91.3%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 91.2469, up 0.3828 or 0.42% [7]. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 18237 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1152.3287 tons, down 0.0042 tons. SHFE gold position is 155821 lots, up 25999 lots or 20.03%; SPDR gold position is 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons or - 0.24%. SHFE silver inventory is 1299.756 tons, up 4.093 tons or 0.32%; CME silver inventory is 15542.2557 tons, up 18.7987 tons or 0.12%; SGX silver inventory is 1357.845 tons, down 21.03 tons or - 1.53%. SHFE silver position is 277702 lots, down 37746 lots or - 11.97%; SLV silver position is 14826.612625 tons, down 39.5722 tons or - 0.27% [16]. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 96.8103, down 0.4513 or - 0.46%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.16, down 0.0043 or - 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 44094.77 points, up 275.5 points or 0.63%. WTI crude oil spot is at $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 or - 0.63%. LmeS copper 03 is at $9878 per ton, down $1 or - 0.01%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.24%, down 0.05 or - 1.17%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.95, down 0.05 or - 2.5%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.52, down 0.04 or - 7.14% [21][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin market. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 268,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.18%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.8% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those with high finished - product inventory and worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For those with low raw - material inventory and worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) at a suitable volatility with a 25% hedging ratio [2]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 268,110 yuan/ton, 268,110 yuan/ton, and 267,880 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,565 US dollars/ton, down 245 US dollars (- 0.72%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.01, up 0.15 (1.91%) [6]. - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 267,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.06%); 1 tin premium is 600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 14.29%); 40% tin concentrate is 255,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.16%); 60% tin concentrate is 259,200 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan (2.13%); the price of solder bar (60A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 173,750 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (2.06%); the price of solder bar (63A) in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 181,250 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan (1.97%); the price of lead - free solder is 273,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan (1.86%) [10][13]. 3.4 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,212.76 yuan/ton, down 2,572.25 yuan (17.57%); 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change; 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory (Daily)**: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 6,750 tons, up 199 tons (3.04%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,214 tons, up 24 tons (0.57%); the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,611 tons, up 175 tons (12.19%); the total LME tin inventory is 2,175 tons with no change [17].

南华商品指数：所有板块均下跌，能化板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-07-01 08:10:53 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.21%。板块指数中，所有板块均有所下跌，其中跌 幅最大的板块是南华能化指数，跌幅为-0.5%；跌幅最小的板块是南华有色金属指数，跌幅为-0.05%。 主题指数 中，只有经济作物指数，上涨0.01%，其余主题指数均是下跌，跌幅最大的主题指数是能源指数，跌幅为-0.56%， 跌幅最小的主题指数是石油化工指数，跌幅为-0.08%。 商品期货单品种指数中，涨幅最大的单品种指数是鸡蛋，上 涨0.65%，跌幅最大的商品期货单品种指数是焦煤，跌幅为-2.65%。 > 南华期货 | 股票代码 | 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月30日 南华指数小组 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏 (F03103098) 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011 】1290号 棕榈油 −0.55% 0.02% 菜籽油 −0.54% -0.22% -0.22% 論菜籽 −2.07% - D.S1% - 生猪 —0.96% 系材 相 0.51% -0.25% - 在： (1) 文 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The stock index rose overall today. The release of the latest PMI data and the strong RMB exchange - rate boosted market sentiment and attracted foreign capital inflows. However, the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink, and the arithmetic average basis of stock - index futures (except IH) deepened the discount. So, the sustainability of this round of rise is to be observed, and it is not recommended to chase the high. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions and wait and see [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index closed higher collectively. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.37%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 54.244 billion yuan, and stock - index futures rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - China's official manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, up from 49.5, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7, up from 50.4, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of business production and operation activities. The official non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing continued expansion. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land to consolidate the stability of the real estate market [5] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 0.49 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.8992 | 4.0678 | 7.1303 | 17.2012 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.8361 | - 1.8499 | - 1.1319 | - 2.2096 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 24.4607 | 8.5841 | 22.1361 | 31.7645 | | Open interest change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.9541 | - 0.8594 | - 0.7778 | - 1.9165 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.59 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.83 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.60 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 14868.57 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (100 million yuan) | - 542.44 | [7]

日内消息： 1.财政部：境外投资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润，在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间用于境内直 接投资符合条件的，可按照投资额的10%抵免境外投资者当年的应纳税额，当年不足抵免的准予向以后结 转。中华人民共和国政府同外国政府订立的税收协定中关于股息、红利等权益性投资收益适用税率低于10% 的，按照协定税率执行。 行情研判： 国债期货日报 2025年6月30日 下跌的核心逻辑是什么？ 观点：等待右侧进场 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货全天震荡下行，午后A股涨幅扩大，期债跌幅进一步深化。公开市场方面，到期逆回购2205亿，央 行新做3315亿，当日净投放1110亿，但早盘隔夜资金价格上行至3%以上，资金面情绪指数超过60，资金面 压力明显。 6月制造业PMI符合预期，非制造业小幅超预期，但仍在荣枯线下方的并不能给债市如此大的压力。其他方 面，上周五货币政策例会措辞的修改一定程度会压制预期，但无法改变支持性的政策立场和基本面环境。此 外包括邀请特朗普参加阅兵等略显小众的股市"疑似利多"对债市的影响就更加虚无缥缈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market declined under pressure due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tariff concerns, despite the warming of interest - rate cut expectations during the week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish, but the short - term technical pattern is weak and under pressure. The report suggests maintaining the idea of buying on dips [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, gold prices in the precious metals market declined, and silver prices were volatile. Geopolitical tensions eased as the Iran - Israel conflict in the Middle East calmed down, reducing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The trade tariff deadline was postponed, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund positions: The SPDR Gold ETF's weekly holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 954.82 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's weekly holdings increased by 115.91 tons to 14,866.18 tons. - Short - term fund positions: As of June 24, according to the CFTC report, gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts to 195,004 contracts, and silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 4,227 contracts to 62,947 contracts. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16.3 tons to 1,152.3 tons, COMEX silver inventory increased by 112.7 tons to 15,523.5 tons, SHFE gold inventory increased by 69 kg to 18.24 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 65.43 tons to 1,295.7 tons, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1,357.8 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. - Events: The US Senate will vote on the "Great Beauty" bill, and several Fed officials will give speeches. The COMEX precious metals trading will end early on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday [4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - SHFE gold main contract price was 766.4 yuan/gram, down 1.15%; SGX gold TD price was 763.08 yuan/gram, down 1.32%; CME gold main contract price was 3,286.1 dollars/ounce, down 1.66%. - SHFE silver main contract price was 8,792 yuan/kg, down 0.05%; SGX silver TD price was 8,748 yuan/kg, down 0.28%; CME silver main contract price was 36.165 dollars/ounce, down 1.05%. - CME gold - silver ratio was 90.8641, down 0.61% [6]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 97.2616, down 0.05%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1643, unchanged. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 43,819.27 points, up 1%; WTI crude oil spot price was 65.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.43%. - LmeS copper 03 price was 9,896 dollars/ton, up 1.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 0.7%; 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.01%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.56%, unchanged [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The impact of geopolitical factors on ethylene glycol prices is gradually subsiding, and price influence is now mainly driven by fundamentals [3]. - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, pushing up the polyester sector. Coal - based profits are expected to expand, but the additional supply increase is limited [3]. - The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but the impact on the supply side before August is expected to be limited [3]. - The planned production cuts by bottle - chip factories will weaken the demand for ethylene glycol [4]. - With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices have dropped, mainly affecting coal - based production profits, but the impact on production plans is limited, mainly leading to a downward shift in the absolute price range [6]. - The previous expectation of reduced ethylene glycol imports may be overestimated, with the main loss expected in August. Future focus should be on the recovery of Iranian plants and port shipments [6]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section 3.1 Polyester Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price ranges for ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle - chip are 4000 - 4600, 6400 - 7300, 4400 - 5300, and 5700 - 6400 respectively. Their 20 - day rolling volatilities are 20.02%, 30.37%, 28.78%, and 22.42%, and the historical percentiles of volatility over 3 years are 49.6%, 86.2%, 83.7%, and 70.4% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range. Buy put options (EG2509P4200) and sell call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 20 - 40 and 40 - 60 ranges respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, long ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 4200 - 4250 range. Sell put options (EG2509P4150) at a 75% hedging ratio in the 50 - 80 range [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The direct impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on ethylene glycol is mainly on cost - end crude oil price fluctuations and supply - end disruptions. Currently, the influence of geopolitics is fading, and price influence is back to being fundamentally driven [3]. 3.3利多解读 - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, driving up the polyester sector. Coal - based profits are expected to expand, but the additional supply increase is limited due to factors like device operating conditions [3]. - The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but the impact on the supply side before August is expected to be limited [3]. 3.4利空解读 - The planned production cuts by bottle - chip factories, expected to affect 230 - 300 million tons of total capacity, will weaken the demand for ethylene glycol [4]. - With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices have dropped, mainly affecting coal - based production profits. Although coal - based profits have been compressed, they remain at a good level, and the impact on production plans is limited, mainly leading to a downward shift in the absolute price range [6]. - The previous expectation of reduced ethylene glycol imports may be overestimated. Iran's ethylene glycol production is about 1.9 billion tons, with about half exported to China. The actual monthly supply to the Chinese market is about 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imports. The main loss is expected in August, and future focus should be on the recovery of Iranian plants and port shipments [6]. 3.5 Polyester Daily Data - **Price and Spread**: The report provides price data for various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers, as well as their daily and weekly changes, and data on spreads and basis [7][8]. - **Processing Fees and Production - Sales Ratios**: It also includes data on processing fees for different products and production - sales ratios of polyester filaments and short - fibers [8].