南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月25日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨 ...

南华期货硅产业链周报 ——宏观预期与成本推动，整体偏强运行 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年07月25日 一、周度总结 工业硅 【行情回顾】 本周工业硅期货震荡走强，加权指数合约收于9709元/吨，周环比上涨11.54%；成交量95.72万手，周环比 降低50.89%，持仓量56.83万手，周环比减少5万手；工业硅SI2509-SI2511月差维持back结构；仓单数量 49710手，周环比下降683手。 【产业表现】 本周硅产业链现货市场报价平稳。 供给：硅石报价平稳，工业硅及硅粉市场报价整体上涨，周度涨幅超20%，工业硅开工率小幅上扬，产量环 比增加605吨。 需求：有机硅市场报价环比上涨14.75%，开工率稳定，当前产量处于高位；铝合金市场仍处于淡季，报价平 稳，下游按需采购。 库存：本周工业硅周度库存环比下降0.755万吨，铝合金库存环比上涨，再生铝合金库存环比走弱。 【核心逻辑】 基本面看，工业硅处于落后产能出清的产业周期逻辑，供应过剩压力持续。丰水期临近 ...

Report Details 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The trading desk is advised to wait and see temporarily [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures fluctuated higher in the morning, declined in the afternoon, and plunged at the end of the session, with most closing down. In the cash bond market, yields initially fell by up to 4bp in the morning, rebounded in the afternoon, and then declined again after the market, halting the continuous upward trend. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds [2] - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 187.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan, which improved market sentiment [2] 3.2 News and Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a mid - year work meeting on July 24, emphasizing that although the internal and external environment of the capital market remains complex, the certainty of high - quality economic development, macro - policy expectations, and the valuation repair of Chinese assets provide a basis for the stable and healthy operation of the market [3] - Deputy Governor Zou Lan mentioned coordinating treasury bond issuance with the Ministry of Finance during the session, which improved the sentiment of bond market bulls [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of over 600 billion yuan alleviated market tension. The central bank's supportive monetary policy stance is the last and strongest support for the bulls [4] - The A - share market adjusted during the session, with the broader market weaker than small and medium - cap stocks. The TMT sector, which had been continuously adjusting, rebounded, while sectors such as building materials and building decoration related to the Ya - Xia concept led the decline, and upstream resource stocks significantly adjusted. There was a divergence between the equity market and the commodity market, with commodities remaining strong [4] - The late - session plunge in treasury bond futures may have been affected by the strong performance of commodities [4] 3.4 Data Overview - Data for various treasury bond futures contracts (TS2509, TF2509, T2509, TL2509) including opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, as well as contract positions and trading volumes are provided. Data on various deposit - based inter - bank repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and their trading volumes are also presented [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: In the early third quarter, improved macro sentiment, supply disturbances, and the phenomenon of a non - typical off - season will cause futures prices to fluctuate upward; in the fourth quarter, after technological upgrades are completed and production capacity is released, futures prices will fluctuate downward. [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 14.66%. The trading volume was 2.39 million lots, a week - on - week increase of 62.6%. The open interest was 908,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 247,400 lots. The spread between the LC2509 - LC2511 contracts maintained a back structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,996 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,757 lots. [1] 3.1.2 Industry Performance - Supply: This week, the price increase of the mining end intensified, with an average increase of over 19%. The SMM Australian ore 6% CIF was quoted at $860/ton, and African ore was quoted at $801/ton, with an overall increase of over 17%. The price increase in the lithium salt market was smaller than that at the mining end, with lithium carbonate prices rising by about 9% and lithium hydroxide by about 5%. The basis quotes in the trader segment continued to weaken. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 1.96% week - on - week, and lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. - Demand: This week, the quotes of downstream material factories were differentiated, with price increases lower than those of lithium salts and lithium ores. The quotes of the lithium iron phosphate system increased by about 4%, and those of the ternary material system increased by about 2%. The quotes of the electrolyte end were stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate remained flat week - on - week, with a slight decrease in production; the production of ternary materials increased week - on - week; the production of lithium manganate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium cobaltate enterprises remained flat week - on - week. - Terminal: The quotes in the battery cell market were stable. This week, battery cell production remained stable. - Inventory: This week, domestic lithium ore inventories decreased week - on - week, lithium carbonate inventories increased by 0.39% week - on - week, the inventories of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week, and the inventories of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate increased week - on - week. [2] 3.1.3 Core Logic - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are all under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is progressing slowly. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. - There are two short - term logics in the current market: In the price decline cycle, the clearing pressure caused by the overcapacity of lithium salts is transmitted upstream to the mining end, and the loosening of ore prices in turn exacerbates the downward inertia of lithium salt prices, forming a negative feedback loop risk of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt decline". When the futures rebound is driven by macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, it creates a certain hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, stimulates the release of production enthusiasm, drives the consumption of lithium ore, and promotes the rise of lithium ore prices, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price follow - up". As lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits gradually increase, the operating rate will gradually increase in the future, and finally return to the fundamental situation of demand - based pricing. - Enterprises are continuously optimizing the production process through production line technological upgrades, driving the continuous decline of production costs. The steep cost curve formed by cost differences in the past is gradually flattening. This "collapse - style" cost reduction not only weakens the support of traditional high costs for prices but also becomes the core force driving the decline of lithium carbonate prices. [2][4] 3.1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. [4] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - Enterprises should seize the window period for planned production; speculative investors are advised to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. [4] 3.1.6 Bullish Interpretations - As lithium ore and lithium salt prices continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances gradually increases. - The current situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market. - The production scheduling on the demand side has increased more than expected. [4] 3.1.7 Bearish Interpretations - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to be large, and high inventories are suppressing ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have led to a decrease in the costs of some high - cost technology routes, delaying the capacity clearing. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - The report provides detailed weekly price data for the lithium - battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, showing price changes, week - on - week changes, etc. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate weighted index contract was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10,175 yuan and a week - on - week increase of 14.66%. [5] 3.3 Lithium Ore 3.3.1 Import - The report presents the seasonal chart of the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate by country (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Rwanda). [11] 3.3.2 Production - It shows the seasonal charts of the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and sample lithium mica mines in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent. [13] 3.3.3 Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium ore (including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader's spot inventory at major ports) and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples in lithium salt factories in terms of LCE equivalent. [15] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Operating Rate - The operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 1.96% week - on - week to 48.6%. Among them, the operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises decreased by 0.64% to 52.61%, the operating rate of lithium mica enterprises increased by 2.97% to 58.18%, the operating rate of salt lake enterprises decreased by 13.25% to 56.22%, and the operating rate of recycling material enterprises decreased by 0.34% to 20.5%. [23] 3.4.2 Production - The weekly production of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week to 18,630 tons. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased by 0.64% to 9,264 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica increased by 0.3% to 5,115 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lake materials decreased by 13.25% to 2,847 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate from recycling materials decreased by 0.4% to 1,404 tons. [31] 3.4.3 Import - The report shows the seasonal charts of the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate (cumulative value since the beginning of the year and monthly value) and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country (Chile and Argentina). [32][34] 3.4.4 Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% week - on - week to 143,170 tons. Among them, smelter inventories decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, downstream inventories increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons, and other inventories increased by 3.83% to 44,970 tons. [38] 3.4.5 Profit - The report provides charts of the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally (including the profit of the sulfate method and the sulfuric acid method for lithium carbonate), the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate. [39][42] 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Operating Rate - The report shows the seasonal charts of the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [44][46] 3.5.2 Production - It presents the seasonal charts of the total production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [48][51] 3.5.3 Inventory - The report provides the seasonal charts of the total inventories of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate industries. [53][55] 3.5.4 Profit - It shows the profit charts of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate, as well as the theoretical cost chart of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. [57][58] 3.6 Terminal Battery Cells 3.6.1 Production - The report shows the production data of SMM lithium batteries (total production, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, production of SMM ternary batteries, and production of other types of batteries), the monthly production data of SMM power battery cells (total, ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and other types), the seasonal chart of the monthly production of SMM power battery cells (total), and the seasonal chart of the monthly production of Chinese energy - storage battery cells. [60] 3.6.2 Installation Volume - It presents the seasonal charts of the total installation volume of Chinese lithium batteries, the installation volume of LFP batteries, and the installation volume of NCM batteries. [63][64] 3.6.3 Battery Cell Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium batteries (including lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary batteries, energy - storage batteries, and power batteries), the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of Chinese power battery cells (lithium iron phosphate), and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of SMM Chinese power battery cells (ternary). [66][68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The rise of ferroalloys is mainly driven by strong policy expectations, macro - sentiment, and the increase in coal - based prices on the cost side, and the short - term outlook is optimistic. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small. Silicomanganese is in a destocking trend, and although the inventory of ferrosilicon is high, coal prices support the price of ferrosilicon. However, there is uncertainty about whether the price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan and the enterprise meeting have stimulated market confidence, but there are uncertainties in the specific implementation and the policy may deviate significantly from market expectations. If the coal price increase is a short - term fluctuation, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [3][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy's Strong Expectations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. The ferroalloy industry has relatively serious over - capacity in the steel industry. Market expectations are that ferroalloy prices will rise based on the price changes during the 2015 supply - side reform [4][5] Ferroalloy Enterprises' Anti -内卷 Symposium - Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy has not been implemented and it is uncertain whether it includes the ferroalloy industry, the internal meeting of the ferroalloy industry verifies market expectations. Due to the relatively low price of the manganese ore market and the low inventory of manganese ore in production enterprises, production enterprises have actively replenished their stocks, boosting the rise of ferroalloys [9] Increase in Coal - based Costs - The continuous increase in coking coal prices has led to an increase in ferroalloy costs because of the high correlation between ferroalloy costs and coal - based prices. With the coking coal main contract hitting the daily limit for many consecutive days, there is a possibility of a supplementary increase in ferroalloy futures [18] Future Sustainability - There is uncertainty about whether the ferroalloy price can continue to rise. The implementation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's work plan has uncertainties, and the policy may deviate from market expectations. If the coal price increase is short - term, the support of the cost side for ferroalloy prices will weaken as coal production capacity is released and imports increase [21]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, maintaining a narrow sideways oscillation with a downward - shifting center of fluctuation and low market activity. The support below the market comes from the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side is weakening in both time and space dimensions [3]. - The operating logic of the crude oil market has not changed, and the market is in the adjustment phase after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. It is still supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and other countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [3]. - There is a lack of clear guidance in the news of the crude oil market recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations, the Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, etc. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC+ increases production in September [3]. - Currently, the crude oil market is in a narrow - range adjustment phase. The demand - side support is limited as the seasonal effect fades. Next week's macro - dynamics may bring new guidance to the crude oil market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - Iran and three European countries (the UK, France, and Germany) started a new round of nuclear negotiations in Istanbul on July 25. This is their first meeting since the cease - fire in June, and the deputy - foreign - minister - level talks will be held behind closed doors [4]. - In June, China's naphtha imports reached a new high at 1.6081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.61% and a year - on - year increase of 51.12%. The high - level imports in the second quarter were driven by supply and cost factors. The production in the second quarter was 47.0415 million tons, a 2.35% decrease from the first quarter, and the price of imported naphtha was more competitive due to the previous decline in crude oil prices. The average import price in June was $577.54 per ton, the lowest of the year [5]. - Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea ports has been suspended due to new port - entry safety regulations. The situation is expected to be resolved in one or two days [5]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 18 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M+2 | 69.42 | 69.18 | 69.28 | 0.24 | 0.14 | | WTI Crude M+2 | 65.31 | 65.13 | 66.05 | 0.18 | - 0.74 | | SC Crude M+2 | 501.2 | 498.7 | 504.1 | 2.5 | - 2.9 | | Dubai Crude M+2 | 68.41 | 67.85 | 67.85 | 0.56 | 0.56 | | Oman Crude M+2 | 71.48 | 70.7 | 71.03 | 0.78 | 0.45 | | Murban Crude M+2 | 72.33 | 71.36 | 70.71 | 0.97 | 1.62 | | EFS Spread M+2 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 1.67 | 0.11 | - 0.9 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M+2 - M+3) | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.93 | 0.14 | - 0.11 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M+2 - M - 3) | 1.56 | 0.68 | 1.89 | 0.88 | - 0.33 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 0.88 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.1 | - 0.04 | | SC Monthly Spread (M+1 - M+2) | 5.6 | 5.8 | 12.9 | - 0.2 | - 7.3 | | SC - Dubai (M+2) | 1.0207 | 1.6568 | 3.7559 | - 0.6361 | - 2.7352 | | SC - Oman (M+2) | - 1.9993 | - 1.0532 | 0.5459 | - 0.9461 | - 2.5452 | [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term attitude towards the market is cautiously optimistic [1][11] Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the stock index hit a new high. Affected by the Yaxia Power Station and Hainan Free Trade Port's full - customs - closure policy, upstream resource and infrastructure - related industries, as well as the pan - consumption sector, drove the stock market up. The trading volume of the two markets reached about 1.9 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading volume in A - share trading volume increased [1][2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the stock market needs a virtuous cycle of supply and demand to support a bull market. Short - term information - driven optimism and volume cooperation do not guarantee sustainable structural upward movement [6] - At the end of the month, the stock market will be affected by two major events: the Sino - US economic and trade talks and the July Politburo meeting. The market expects positive results, but there are risks of short - term index correction [7] - After the correction, the market may still be driven by optimism. If the information does not meet expectations and the trading volume drops, risk management is needed [1][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Abstract - This week, the stock index hit a new high. Driven by positive factors such as the Yaxia Power Station and Hainan Free Trade Port's full - customs - closure policy, different main lines in the stock market went up, and the trading volume of the two markets reached about 1.9 trillion yuan. After the correction, the market may still be driven by optimism, but attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US talks and the July Politburo meeting [1] 2. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The stock index hit a new high this week. The Yaxia Power Station and Hainan Free Trade Port's full - customs - closure policy drove related industries up, and the trading volume and margin trading proportion increased [2] - The short - term upward trend of the market driven by information may not be sustainable. In the medium - to - long - term, the stock market needs supply - demand coordination. The market will be affected by the Sino - US talks and the July Politburo meeting, and there are risks of short - term index correction [6][7] - The short - term attitude towards the market is cautiously optimistic. If the information does not meet expectations and the trading volume drops, risk management is needed. The strategy is mainly to hold positions and wait and see [11][12] 3. Weekly Fun Chart - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated this week, and the short - term exchange - rate impact weakened [13] - The market's optimistic sentiment gradually cooled down as the futures index position PCR first rose and then fell [15] - This week, small - cap futures indexes were relatively strong. Although the information drove up the upstream resource industries, the anti - deflation narrative heated up, and funds mainly flowed into small - cap stocks [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose 69.1 points, a 2.73% increase. The most influential varieties were glass and soda ash, with the glass variety index having a change of 25.99% and a contribution of 0.62%, and the soda ash variety index having a change of 18.42% and a contribution of 0.59% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 183.62 points, a 5.04% increase. The most influential varieties were coke and glass, with the coke variety index contributing 0.91% and the glass variety index contributing 0.79% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index rose 262.42 points, a 4.14% increase. The most influential variety was rebar, with a contribution of 1.22% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index rose 96.69 points, a 5.72% increase. The most influential variety was coke, with a contribution of 1.33% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 0.03 points, a 0.00% increase. The most influential variety was live pigs, with a contribution of 0.27% [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview of Nanhua Commodity Index - The report provides the weekly data of various Nanhua commodity indexes, including the closing prices this week and last week, the change in points, the change rate, the maximum and minimum values this week, and the amplitude. For example, the Comprehensive Index (NHCI) closed at 2596.21 this week, up 69.10 points from last week, with a 2.73% increase [3]. 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength - Weakness Arbitrage Data - The table shows the comparison data of Nanhua commodity indexes, including the current value, the previous value (last week), the change, and the ranking. For example, the ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Comprehensive Index is 0.487 currently, down from 0.498 last week, with a change of - 0.010659273 and a ranking of 0.790 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - The table presents the average open - interest this week, the month - on - month increase rate, and the open - interest ratio of various futures varieties. For example, the average open - interest of soybean meal this week was 4,835,013 hands, with a - 2.10% month - on - month decrease and a 12.31% open - interest ratio [8]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua Sub - sector Indexes - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Closed at 3823.66 this week, up 5.04% from last week. The top 6 varieties with the highest contributions were coke, glass, soda ash, rebar, alumina, and natural rubber [10]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Closed at 6594.47 this week, up 4.14% from last week. The top 3 varieties with the highest contributions were rebar, alumina, and lithium carbonate [10]. - **Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index**: Closed at 1788.03 this week, up 5.72% from last week. The top 3 varieties with the highest contributions were coke, glass, and soda ash [10]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Closed at 1102.32 this week, up 0.00% from last week. The top 3 varieties with the highest contributions were live pigs, apples, and sugar [10]. - **Nanhua Black Index**: Closed at 2683.73 this week, up 7.05% from last week. The top 3 varieties with the highest contributions were coke, rebar, and iron ore [12]. - **Nanhua Non - ferrous Index**: Closed at 1734.53 this week, up 3.50% from last week. The top 3 varieties with the highest contributions were alumina, lithium carbonate, and aluminum [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by late pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with the 9 - 1 spread strengthening. Some long - positions are shifted, the near - month price declines, and the far - month price has strong support. The low inventory before the new cotton listing will support the cotton price, but the terminal finished - product inventory pressure in the off - season may limit the upside, and there is also an expected high yield in the far - month. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and the subsequent cotton destocking, as well as the change of Sino - US tariffs in August [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. Core Contradictions - **Positive Factors**: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year. Also, late pricing of textile factories supports the cotton price [3][4]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, yarn prices rise with cotton prices, fabric factories replenish inventory slightly but坯布 inventory accumulates, and the terminal sales are sluggish. The new cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll - setting stage with good growth, leading to an optimistic production expectation for the new year [5]. Futures and Price Indexes - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,115 with a 0.36% increase; Cotton 05 at 14,040 with a 0.36% increase; Cotton 09 at 14,170 with a 0.07% increase; Yarn 01 at 20,280 with a 0.07% increase; Yarn 09 at 20,370 with a 0.05% increase. Yarn 05 closed at 20,250 with a - 100% change [5][6]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis is 1379 with a - 24 change; Cotton 01 - 05 spread is 75 with no change; Cotton 05 - 09 spread is - 130 with a 40 change; Cotton 09 - 01 spread is 55 with a - 40 change; Cotton - yarn spread is 6190 with no change; Domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1835 with a 20 change; Domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 479 with no change [7]. - **Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B is 15,549 with a - 0.09% change; CCI 2227B is 13,659 with a - 0.04% change; CCI 2129B is 15,862 with a - 0.11% change; FCI Index S is 13,994 with a 0.52% change; FCI Index M is 13,803 with a 0.55% change; FCI Index L is 13,519 with a 0.39% change [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The commodity market has significant fluctuations, while the log market remains relatively stable with a 6 - day consecutive reduction in positions. The main contract of logs closed at over 830 (+2), with a reduction of 164 lots and a remaining position of 24,000 lots. The subsequent log market is expected to have low - volatility oscillations, and the current valuation is slightly high [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction The log market has experienced 6 consecutive days of position - reduction, and the commodity market fluctuates greatly, while the log market is quiet [3]. 3.4 Market Conditions - The main contract closed at over 830 (+2), with a reduction of 164 lots and a remaining position of 24,000 lots [4]. - In the spot market, the price of 4 - meter small A in Taicang increased by 10 yuan/m³, and the price of 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan decreased by 10 yuan/m³. The spot price of the delivery goods in Taicang increased by 10 yuan. There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Newly registered warehouse receipts will be cancelled by the end of July if not matched for delivery, and they will not have a significant impact. Future attention should be paid to new warehouse receipts in August [5]. 3.5 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices jointly due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment in the commodity market is warming up [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8]. 3.6 Log Data Overview | Category | Indicator | Update Date | Value | MoM | YoY | Frequency | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | Radiata pine import volume | 2025 - 06 - 30 | 1.61 billion m³ | - 800,000 m³ | 35.3% | Monthly | m³ | | Inventory | Port inventory (China) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 3.29 billion m³ | 700,000 m³ | 4.1% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Shandong) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 1,932,000 m³ | 38,000 m³ | 6.0% | Weekly | m³ | | | Port inventory (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 1,107,569 m³ | - 7,431 m³ | 33.9% | Weekly | m³ | | Demand | Average daily log port outbound volume | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 624,000 m³ | 36,000 m³ | 23.3% | Weekly | m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Shandong) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 336,000 m³ | - 17,000 m³ | 31.8% | Weekly | m³ | | | Average daily outbound volume (Jiangsu) | 2025 - 07 - 18 | 232,000 m³ | 47,000 m³ | 32.6% | Weekly | m³ | | Profit | Radiata pine import profit | 2025 - 07 - 25 | - 83 yuan/m³ | 0 | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | | Spruce import profit | 2025 - 07 - 25 | - 44 yuan/m³ | - 1 yuan/m³ | - | Weekly | yuan/m³ | | Main Spot | 3.9 - meter medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 740 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 8.6% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 4 - meter medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 760 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 7.3% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 5.9 - meter medium (5.8A) in Rizhao Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 770 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 7.2% | Daily | yuan/m³ | | | 6 - meter medium (5.8A) in Taicang Port | 2025 - 07 - 25 | 770 yuan/m³ | 0 | - 9.4% | Daily | yuan/m³ | [10]