Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China - US negotiations. The market will remain in a narrow bottom - range oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The short - term impact of the quarterly inventory report during the holiday is neutral, and attention should be paid to whether the October USDA report will adjust the previous yield. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is constrained by high near - term inventory, and the domestic market is expected to be under pressure, but there are opportunities for long - position valuation repair supported by costs. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly affected by China - Canada negotiation results and is influenced by supply recovery expectations and soybean meal in the short term [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps, and the Brazilian export premium supports far - month contract prices from the cost side. However, the near - term supply is high, with high port and oil - mill inventories of imported soybeans in China, increasing oil - mill crushing volumes, and a seasonal inventory build - up trend for soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure the dominant factor in the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.6% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory and wanting to purchase based on orders, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2939 | 11 | 0.38% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2755 | 17 | 0.62% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2863 | 16 | 0.56% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2435 | 14 | 0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2334 | 17 | 0.73% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2415 | 12 | 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1029.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1527 | 0.0096 | 0.13% | [6][8] 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 184 with a daily change of - 6, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 101 with a daily change of - 3. - The M05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 108 with a daily change of 1, and the RM05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is - 81 with a daily change of 5. - The M09 - 01 spread of soybean meal is - 76 with a daily change of 5, and the RM09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal is - 20 with a daily change of - 2. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2950 with a daily change of 10, and the basis is 11 with a daily change of - 1. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2540 with no daily change, and the basis is 105 with no daily change. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a daily change of 10, and the futures price spread is 504 with a daily change of - 3 [9]. 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4471.4503 | - 32.1737 | 0.031 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3975.71 | 67.65 | 65.91 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 727.0651 | - 12.6593 | - 12.0831 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 622.9153 | - 32.1737 | - 44.9143 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 30.936 | - 5.1388 | - 0.2864 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 1027 | 29 | 188 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1247 | 49 | 211 | [10]

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - The Nanhua Composite Index rose by 1.31% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index declined by -0.8%, while the rest increased. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 3.66%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.2% [1] - Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 1.89%, the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.34%, the Coal - based Chemical Index had the largest decline of -1.52%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest decline of -0.69% [1] - Among the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Gold index had the largest increase of 4.57%, and the Live Pig index had the largest decline of -5.15% [1][4] Group 2: Other Information - The calculation method of the price change ratio in the article is the ratio of today's closing price to yesterday's closing price, and the contribution degree is the product of the price change ratio and the weight [9] - The Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the price difference during the contract roll - over, reflecting the real return of investing in the commodity system [9] - The calculation method of the contribution degree used in the article is a certain variety's daily price change ratio divided by the sum of all varieties' daily price change ratios. Yellow data bars represent rising varieties, and blue data bars represent falling varieties [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.62% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose strongly during the day, and the overall non - ferrous metals market was strong. - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, and the 2026 quota is expected to decline. - In the new energy market, the downstream procurement willingness recovered after the holiday, with tight market circulation, low inventory, and continued strong subsequent quotes. - The upward momentum of nickel - iron prices has dissipated, but the downward space is limited due to cost pressure. - In the stainless steel market, spot transactions improved after the holiday, and export prospects are positive, which may relieve the pressure of weak demand recovery. [3] Group 5: Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promoted the continuous construction of the nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel was illegal. - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year. [5] Bearish Factors - High pure nickel inventory. - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist. - As of now, the demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has fallen short of expectations. [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main - continuous | 124,480 | 3,580 | 3% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 124,480 | 3,580 | 2.96% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 124,660 | 3,600 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 124,850 | 3,580 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,382 | - 103 | - 2.95% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 130,864 | 3,674 | 2.89% | lots | | Open Interest | 86,038 | 9,898 | 13.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 24,775 | - 42 | - 0.17% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | - 610 | 135 | - 18.1% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main - continuous | 1,286 | 130 | 1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 1,286 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 1,288 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 1,295 | 120 | 0.94% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 88,195 | - 39,957 | - 31.18% | lots | | Open Interest | 60,514 | - 7,320 | - 10.79% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 86,551 | - 418 | - 0.48% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | 840 | 30 | 3.70% | yuan/ton | [6] Group 7: Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 40,828 | - 656 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 236,892 | 4,260 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 | 11.8 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 | - 614.5 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus persists, and with the expected increase in production in India and Thailand in October, sugar prices are under pressure. However, multiple typhoons in late September and early October have affected sugarcane in Guangxi, and the losses are yet to be estimated [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market. Positive factors include sufficient sugar inventory in India for domestic consumption, China's suspension of imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder, Brazil's increase in ethanol and biodiesel blending ratios, and typhoon - related damage to sugarcane. Negative factors include changes in production, supply, and sales data in various regions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.50% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5600 - 5650, and sell call options (SR601C5700) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 60 - 80 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5450 - 5500, and sell put options (SR601P5400) with a 50% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to lock in procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The global sugar supply surplus situation continues. The expected increase in production in India and Thailand suppresses sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in production due to expanded planting areas may be affected by typhoons in Guangxi [4]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: - India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is estimated to be 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient for domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [5]. - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [5]. - Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [5]. - Typhoons have damaged sugarcane in Guangdong and Guangxi [5]. - **Negative Factors**: - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased [6]. - The global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 740 million tons, the highest since 2017/18 [6]. - In August 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, and the situation in different periods varies [8]. - In the first half of September, Brazil's sugar production in the central - southern region increased significantly [9]. - As of the end of August, the sugar sales and inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [9]. 3.4 Price Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the basis between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11) showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly changes of sugar futures contracts (SR01 - SR11), and the spreads between different contracts showed various trends [11]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, Rizhao) and the regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes [12]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices showed different daily and weekly changes [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the apple bag - removing and harvesting period, and the focus is on the high - quality fruit rate. Continuous rainy weather from late September to mid - October has made it difficult for apples to remove bags and color [3]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas, expected yield reduction, and poor quality of apples. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction and the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 8400 - 9000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.1% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For those worried about a new apple harvest and low purchase prices, they can short apple futures (AP2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8800 - 8900, and sell call options (AP2601C8800) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 400 - 500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising apple prices, they can buy apple futures (AP2601) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 8400 - 8500, and sell put options (AP2511P8500) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 [3]. Apple Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) and spot prices (such as in Qixia, Luochuan) are presented. The daily and weekly price changes vary, and the盘面 profit has a 4.23% daily increase and a 22.72% weekly increase [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 26, 2025 (Steel Union data) and September 25, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), the national cold - storage inventory and the storage capacity ratios in different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) are shown, with most regions showing a decreasing trend. The arrival volumes of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong also increased [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rose with increased trading volume today. Among the scale - based indices, the CSI 500 index showed the strongest performance. In the industry, affected by the gold price increase due to the US government shutdown during the holiday and the export control of rare earths, the non - ferrous metals sector led the gain. The technology concept was boosted by chip - related information, with the STAR 50 index rising over 5% during the session and closing up 2.93%. Overseas stock indices performed strongly during the holiday, providing a positive sentiment basis. The stock index gap - opened higher in the morning, and the upward movement during the session was mainly driven by structural positive factors. The upward trend converged after the lunch break. The short - term structural pull is expected to continue. After the stock index continuously broke new highs, the overall sentiment is positive, and the trend is expected to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is advisable to continue holding positions and wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index continued to rise today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.48%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 471.868 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with increased volume [2]. Important Information - The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3900 points in the morning, hitting a 10 - year high, and the gold and controllable nuclear fusion concepts exploded. - The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export control on overseas rare earth items and related technologies. - The US approved NVIDIA to sell chips worth billions of dollars to the UAE [6]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday % change | 1.47 | 1.25 | 1.74 | 0.56 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.5848 | 5.9716 | 15.5474 | 21.3729 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.5179 | 1.214 | 2.6918 | - 0.3141 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.7075 | 10.3573 | 26.8356 | 35.3076 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.4919 | 0.4378 | 2.1599 | 0.1437 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite % change | 1.32 | | Shenzhen Component % change | 1.47 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.47 | | Total trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 2653.197 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | 471.786 | [7]

铁矿石11合约月度价格预测（10月） 铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/10/09 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 780-850 | 19.93% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（10月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2511 | 空 | 25% | 840-850 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2511-C-850 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2511 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic economic repair depends on the demand side, with potential incremental policies. Overseas, the US government shutdown increases market uncertainty, and the Fed's decision - making may be affected. The Japanese political situation also impacts the market [2]. - The RMB exchange rate needs continuous improvement in internal and external environments and policy signals for trend - like appreciation. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [4]. - A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall after the holiday, with a likely structural market. Attention should be paid to multiple events in the future [7]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and it is advisable to enter long positions at low prices without chasing high [8]. - The shipping market is affected by the US policy on Chinese ships and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation. The 10 - contract may decline, and other contracts are likely to oscillate [12]. - Precious metals are expected to remain strong, but there may be price adjustments. Any adjustment is a mid - to - long - term buying opportunity [13][14][15]. - Copper prices are driven up by supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. However, high - price industrial acceptance is a risk [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slightly after the holiday, showing an oscillatory and strong pattern, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [18]. - For lithium carbonate, focus on downstream restocking. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [20][21]. - Steel products face de - stocking pressure, and the market is expected to be under pressure. Iron ore prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to supply disturbances. Coal and coke prices' rebound depends on the steel market. Ferroalloys have prominent supply - demand contradictions [24][27][28]. - LPG is expected to run weakly. PX - TA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to oscillate weakly. Methanol supply pressure increases. PVC is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern. Pure benzene and styrene follow the cost decline. Fuel oil is expected to open flat, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower. Asphalt may open slightly lower, with a possible last - chance rise this year [30][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][44]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate weakly. Propylene prices rise slightly [45][47][48][49]. - The pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Oilseeds are affected by Sino - US negotiations. Oils may rebound after the holiday. Soybean prices are expected to decline. Cotton prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds. Sugar prices may open high and go high in the short - term. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to be cautious. Apple prices may rise due to bad weather. Red dates may face downward pressure [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][66][68]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Key information includes the Fed's meeting minutes, the US government shutdown, the US budget deficit, and international political situations. Domestic economic repair focuses on the demand side, and overseas uncertainties increase [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The RMB exchange rate is affected by the Fed's decision, the US government shutdown, and the Japanese political situation. Short - term strategies for enterprises are given [3][4]. Stock Index - Before the holiday, A - shares were strong, and overseas stock indexes were also strong during the holiday. A - shares are expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall, with attention on multiple events [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The Fed's internal differences and the US government shutdown are important information. The bond market rebounded before the holiday, and it is expected to oscillate after the holiday [8]. Container Shipping - Spot market prices are relatively stable. Global trade volume and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation are key factors. Short - term strategies for different contracts are provided [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Prices rose strongly during the holiday, driven by investment demand, inflation concerns, and the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to data release and the Fed's meeting [13][14]. - **Copper**: Prices rose during the holiday due to supply disruptions and Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about industrial acceptance at high prices [16][17]. - **Nickel**: Prices were strong during the holiday, affected by Indonesian policies. It is expected to rise slightly after the holiday with limited upward momentum [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production and downstream restocking [20]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: There were no significant changes during the holiday. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly, and polysilicon has high volatility and risks [21]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Inventory increased significantly during the holiday. The market faces de - stocking pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply disturbances increase. The price is expected to rise in the short - term due to demand recovery and supply issues [25][26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply elasticity is limited, and the price is supported by winter storage. The rebound depends on the steel market. Strategies for different contracts are provided [28][29]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is a prominent supply - demand contradiction, with high supply and weak demand [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Overseas prices were weak during the holiday. Supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter, and the demand requirement is higher [30]. - **PTA - PX**: It oscillates weakly with the cost side. The polyester season is not very strong, and PTA processing fees have limited expansion [33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: There is a marginal improvement in supply and demand, but the long - term inventory increase expectation makes it difficult to break through upward [34][35][36]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [37]. - **PVC**: There were few changes during the holiday. The market is in a weak - reality and strong - policy - disturbance pattern [38][39]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices follow the cost decline. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the supply of styrene will increase later. Consider widening the price spread [40]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to open flat, with a strong self - performance. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to open slightly lower, following the cost [41][42]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increases, and demand is affected by weather and funds. There may be a last - chance rise this year [43][44]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to oscillate weakly, with different influencing factors for each [45][47][48]. - **Propylene**: Prices rise slightly, with changes in supply and demand [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Prices declined during the holiday, in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Short at high prices [52][53]. - **Oilseeds**: Affected by Sino - US negotiations, with different trends in the internal and external markets. Strategies for contracts are provided [54][55]. - **Oils**: May rebound after the holiday, with different supply and demand situations for different oils [56][57][58]. - **Soybeans**: Prices are expected to decline, with attention on policy and market factors [59][60]. - **Cotton**: Prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds, with a focus on multiple factors [61][62]. - **Sugar**: Prices may open high and go high in the short - term, affected by production and disasters [63][64]. - **Eggs**: Prices were weak during the holiday, and it is advisable to be cautious or short far - month contracts [65]. - **Apples**: Prices may rise due to bad weather, with different price levels for good and poor - quality products [66][67]. - **Red Dates**: May face downward pressure, with attention on weather and inventory [68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward cycle of gold is not over, and any adjustment in gold prices should be seen as a buying opportunity on dips. The long - term trend of gold is anchored to its monetary attribute, and with the decline of the US dollar currency system, global central banks will increase their gold allocation and reduce their US dollar allocation. [2][120] - In the fourth quarter, central bank gold purchases will act as a support, and investment demand will be the driving force. Investment demand will shift from uncertain hedging transactions to interest - rate cut transactions on the monetary policy side. The target price of London gold in Q4 2025 will move up to the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce, and the domestic price will be in the range of 820 - 900 yuan/gram. [2][121] - Silver trends generally follow gold, but there are differences in fundamentals and volatility. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce, and the domestic price is 10000 - 12000 yuan/kilogram. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. [3][121] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, the domestic and foreign precious metals markets continued the bull market in 2024, with strong upward momentum and the relative strength of gold and silver switching. The foreign market outperformed the domestic market, mainly due to the appreciation of the RMB. [9] - In the third quarter, the precious metals market had both synchronization and differentiation. Gold started to break through upwards in late August, silver followed gold's upward movement in late August after a period of adjustment, and platinum's price moved up following gold and silver after a large - scale fluctuation in July. [9] - As of September 19, 2025, all precious metals showed significant price increases compared to the end of 2024, with COMEX silver having the highest increase of 48.05%, and the gold - to - silver ratio decreased by 3.75%. [19] 2. Cross - Market Price Difference Fluctuations Caused by Concerns over US Tariff Policies - From late last year to the first quarter of this year, concerns about the US imposing gold import tariffs led to large - scale arbitrage trading, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. Similar arbitrage transactions have occurred multiple times since November 2024. [23] - In the third quarter of this year, a similar story of cross - market price differences in precious metals repeated. In July, the premium of COMEX futures over London spot in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets widened rapidly due to concerns that the US might extend copper import tariff measures to precious metals. [26] 3. Broad Monetary Expectations Boost Precious Metals Valuation and Investment Demand 3.1 Q3 Real Interest Rate Decline Boosts Gold Valuation - In August, the enhanced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut pushed down the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate, thereby boosting the valuation of gold. Although the non - farm payroll report in early August was far below expectations, the lack of a clear signal from the Fed and the time interval between FOMC meetings limited the increase in precious metals prices. [33] - During the period of increasing interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar index remained resilient, with a limited depreciation range. Except for the Swedish krona, the other five major currencies depreciated against the US dollar in Q3 2025, with the Japanese yen having the largest depreciation. [35] 3.2 The Fed's Monetary Easing Expectation is the Main Cause of the Decline in Real Interest Rates - The mid - to long - term decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is mainly driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut and easing expectations. At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates 1.728 times by the end of this year and 4.317 times by the end of 2026. [41] - The dot - plot of the September FOMC meeting shows that most Fed officials expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year and once each in 2026 and 2027. Compared with June, the expected number of interest - rate cuts has increased due to the Fed's shift towards the employment side in balancing inflation and employment. [45] - The Fed's September economic forecast shows an upward revision of the GDP growth rate forecast for 2025 - 2027, a downward revision of the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027, and an upward revision of the PCE forecast, reflecting the Fed officials' increased concern about inflation and reduced concern about the economy. [49] 3.3 The Fed's Broad Monetary Policy Still Has Room for Strengthening - In the fourth quarter, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate are expected to decline further, which will continue to boost the valuation of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut and possible suspension of balance - sheet reduction are likely to be further strengthened due to increased economic downward pressure in the US and the expected increase in the number of Fed officials favorable to Trump. [51] - The US economy may face greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter and 2026, as evidenced by the cooling of the employment market and the negative impact of trade tariffs on the economy. The Fed's independence is being challenged through institutional and personnel interventions, and there is also the issue of fiscal coercion. [53][63] - Since 2025, global gold investment demand has increased significantly, but there was a net outflow in May. The uncertainty brought about by Trump's policies has increased the demand for gold investment and allocation, but the "90 - day suspension period" of the "reciprocal tariff" policy and the cooling of uncertainty have led to a partial withdrawal of investment demand. [73][75] 4. Central Bank Gold Purchases as a Support - Central bank gold purchases have shown a slowdown this year. From the perspective of the fourth quarter and 2026, central bank gold purchases will act as a support rather than the core driving force for price increases. Central banks are expected to continue to support the gold market, with a concave - shaped demand curve that is more sensitive to price declines. [81] - Long - term, the relationship between central bank gold purchases and gold prices is asymmetric. Central banks are more likely to increase purchases when prices fall, and the inhibitory effect on price increases is weaker than the boosting effect on price increases when prices fall. [82] - As of July, the Polish central bank was the largest gold purchaser in 2025, but its gold purchases slowed down in the second half of the year. Many central banks, including those of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, and Turkey, maintained a good demand for gold. [89] - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves and reduce their US dollar reserves in the next five years. In the next 12 months, 95% of central banks expect the global central bank's gold reserves to continue to increase. [90][91][98] 5. Precious Metals Market Outlook 5.1 Q4 2025 Outlook: Reaching New Highs and Maintaining Strength - In terms of influencing factors, the decline in the US dollar index and the US Treasury real interest rate has boosted the valuation of precious metals. The rise in the precious metals market in the first half of the year was mainly due to hedging demand and interest - rate cut expectations. Central bank gold purchases provided support, and market supply - demand imbalances in the first quarter also contributed to the rise. Gold entered a consolidation phase from late April to mid - August and broke through after late August. [119] - The demand for silver is weaker than that for gold. Industrial silver demand has stagnated, and the underdeveloped investment channels in the domestic market have limited investment demand. However, the deviation of the gold - to - silver ratio and the small market size of silver have created trading opportunities. [120] - The long - term upward cycle of gold is not over, and any price adjustment should be seen as a buying opportunity. In the fourth quarter, investment demand will shift, and the price of London gold is expected to reach the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce. [2][3][121]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene will increase both domestically and through imports. The non - styrene downstream demand lacks support, and the demand in the styrene chain is expected to deteriorate. Pure benzene will remain in surplus, its valuation is difficult to repair and may even be further compressed, which will also drag down the price center of styrene. [1] - For styrene, large - scale plant maintenance has been extended and multiple operating plants have reduced their loads. Supply tightened in September, and is expected to increase continuously after the new plants are put into operation in mid - to - late October. The demand is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". From the balance sheet, styrene will maintain a tight balance from September to November, but its high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene make it prone to decline and difficult to rise. [1] - Price range judgment: BZ (5500, 6300); EB (6500, 7300). The strategy is to consider shorting on rallies on a single - side basis and widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene on dips for inter - commodity trading. [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, the styrene market first rose and then fell, with the leading factors for both the rise and fall being raw material pure benzene. [1] - In the second quarter, styrene prices fluctuated, and several significant rallies and declines were affected by macro factors. [2] - In the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene weakened, and the market fluctuations further narrowed. Under macro disturbances, the market mostly followed the overall commodity sentiment and cost - side prices. [2] - In mid - July, with policy announcements such as "anti - involution" and the investigation of old petrochemical plants, the macro became the trading focus again, and the market followed the raw material end to oscillate upwards. After the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the macro sentiment cooled, and the market declined. [2] - In late August, the terminal demand expectation deteriorated, the market's confidence in this year's peak season weakened, and new plant products impacted the market. The port inventory increased against the season, and the market broke through the support level and fell. [2] 3.2 Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.2.1 Valuation Situation - Pure benzene: At the end of the second quarter, it was expected that there would be a supply - demand gap of about 1.35 million tons in the third quarter, and the valuation might have a phased repair opportunity. However, in reality, the new production capacity was basically balanced, and due to weak demand, the valuation remained at a historical low. In the fourth quarter, supply will increase, demand will be weak, and the valuation is difficult to repair. [5] - Styrene: At the end of the second quarter, it was predicted that the profit in the styrene segment would be compressed, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene would narrow. In fact, the spread has been compressed, and currently, it is difficult for the spread to further narrow in the short term. In the future, the space for the spread to narrow or widen is limited. [5][7] 3.2.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Domestic Supply**: In the third quarter, 1.44 million tons of pure benzene production capacity was put into operation, and the total domestic capacity reached 27.82 million tons. About 0.84 million tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 11.39%. As of August, the cumulative production in 2025 was 14.6787 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The monthly production in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 2 million tons. [10] - **Import**: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly. The average monthly import from January to August was 460,000 tons, a 28.1% increase compared to the previous year. In the fourth quarter, due to the off - season of aromatics blending for gasoline in the US and the need for Europe to find a destination for its surplus pure benzene, the import is expected to be 480,000 - 500,000 tons per month, and the annual import volume is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, a 26.1% increase from the initial forecast. [15][16] - **Demand**: In 2025, except for styrene and caprolactam, the consumption growth rates of other major downstream products of pure benzene slowed down. The downstream comprehensive profit has been in a loss state for a long time. In the fourth quarter, the demand support from non - styrene downstream is weak. For example, caprolactam is facing high inventory in the industrial chain, and aniline is affected by anti - dumping and tariff policies. Phenol and adipic acid industries are in surplus, with only rigid demand. [22][27][30] - **Invisible Inventory**: In 2025, the port inventory decreased before the Spring Festival due to downstream stocking. After the Spring Festival, the high imports led to the accumulation of invisible inventory. In late September, downstream factories stocked up for the National Day holiday, and the invisible inventory reached a new high. [35] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In the fourth quarter, the supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high, while the demand is weak, resulting in a continuous surplus. [37] 3.2.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: In the first half of the year, there was no new styrene production capacity, only a 90,000 - ton capacity increase from the expansion of some plants. In the third quarter, 680,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation. In the fourth quarter, two 600,000 - ton plants are planned to be put into operation, and the annual capacity growth rate is expected to reach 8.86%. In September, supply tightened, and it is expected to increase after mid - to - late October. [39][40] - **Demand**: In the traditional off - season of July - August, the demand for 3S was relatively resilient due to new plant startups and pre - locked orders. However, terminal white - goods demand was affected by policies and tariffs, and the inventory of downstream products has accumulated. The demand for styrene is expected to be "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". [46][52] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward movement. [58] 3.3 Chapter 4: Core Concerns - **Pure Benzene Supply Changes**: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply is expected to remain high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unplanned production cuts in domestic and foreign plants due to continuous valuation compression. [61] - **Regional Styrene Supply - Demand**: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant, Shandong has a styrene surplus and has become a price depression. Currently, focus on the operations of major plants in Shandong and the regional price spread between Shandong and East China. After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical's styrene plants in October, pay attention to regional prices and logistics changes. [62] - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: In the short term, the提货 volume of pure benzene ports increased, and the paper - goods price and Sinopec's pure benzene listed price declined. The market interprets the increase in styrene maintenance losses as negative for pure benzene. [63] - **Long - Term Trading Logic**: In the fourth quarter, pure benzene supply will remain high, and it will be weak without macro - level support, dragging down styrene prices. Styrene's supply - demand situation is better than that of pure benzene, but high inventory and pure benzene's weakness make it prone to decline. The terminal demand expectation is poor, and macro factors should also be monitored. [64][65]