Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but in the short term, there is adjustment pressure, and attention should be paid to the progress of the silver squeeze event. It is not advisable to chase the rise of London gold in the short term, and it is recommended to hold the previous long - position bottom position and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals sector fluctuated significantly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling. The squeeze and shortage in the LBMA silver spot market were the main reasons for the sharp intraday rise in silver prices. The final closing prices of relevant contracts were: COMEX gold 2512 contract at $3991.1 per ounce, down 1.95%; COMEX silver 2512 contract at $47.655 per ounce, down 2.73%; SHFE gold 2512 contract at 914.32 yuan per gram, up 4.82%; SHFE silver 2512 contract at 11169 yuan per kilogram, up 2.22% [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The overall expectation of interest rate cuts is stable. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.1%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 17.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 82%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 56.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.7%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.14 tons to 1013.44 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15415.53 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.5 tons to 1186.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 43.6 tons to 1172.4 tons in the week ending September 26 [3] This Week's Focus - Pay attention to the preliminary value of the October US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index tonight. At 21:45, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar. At 01:00 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [4] Precious Metals Price and Spread Data - The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX precious metals futures and spot are provided in the "Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table", including SHFE gold main - continuous contract at 914.32 yuan per gram, up 4.57%; SGX gold TD at 911.38 yuan per gram, up 4.59%; CME gold main contract at $3991.1 per ounce, down 1.71%; SHFE silver main - continuous contract at 11169 yuan per kilogram, up 2.3%; SGX silver TD at 11176 yuan per kilogram, up 2.94%; CME silver main contract at $47.655 per ounce, down 1.62%. Also, data on SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads, and CME gold - silver ratio are provided [6][7] Inventory and Position Data - The "Inventory and Position Table" shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 70728 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory is 1242.2946 tons, down 0.39%; SHFE gold position is 251137 lots, down 2.23%; SHFE silver inventory is 1186.846 tons, down 0.46%; CME silver inventory is 16364.308 tons, down 0.39%; SGX silver inventory is 1172.37 tons, down 3.66%; SHFE silver position is 477441 lots, up 0.25%; SLV silver holdings is 15452.228555 tons, up 0.24% [15] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview" table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial and commodity indicators, such as the US dollar index at 99.3875, up 0.55%; US dollar against the Chinese yuan at 7.1358, down 0.24%; Dow Jones Industrial Average at 46358.42 points, down 0.52%; WTI crude oil spot at $62.55 per barrel, up 1.33%; LmeS copper 03 at $10776.5 per ton, up 0.74%; 10 - year US Treasury yield at 4.14%, up 0.24%; 10 - year US real interest rate at 1.8%, up 1.12%; 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread at 0.55%, down 3.51% [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - Today's stock market declined, fully erasing yesterday's gains. Although the trading volume of the two markets decreased, it remained above 2.5 trillion yuan. The decline in precious metals overnight led to a drop in the structural driving force, causing non - ferrous metals to correct significantly and technology - related concepts to lead the decline. Cyclical industries showed relatively strong performance but with limited driving force. Short - term structural changes may continue to cause the stock index to fluctuate widely. With important information to be released at home and abroad later this month, the stock market is unlikely to deviate significantly from the current level, and the correction space is limited. It is necessary to observe whether the support of the 5 - day moving average is effective [5] Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.97%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 137.583 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IC declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3] Important Information - On October 10, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued an announcement on adjusting the technical requirements for energy - saving and new - energy vehicle products eligible for vehicle and vessel tax incentives. Reuters reported on October 10 that the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the US increased again last week, indicating that some contractors related to the US government shutdown laid off employees in advance. Starting from October 14, 2025, the maritime management institutions at the ports where the ships berth will collect special port fees for ships owned, operated by US enterprises, organizations or individuals, or ships with US - related equity stakes, US - flagged ships, and ships built in the US [4] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 2.18%, - 1.60%, - 2.24%, and - 1.71% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.6215 million lots, 0.73933 million lots, 1.7039 million lots, and 2.3345 million lots respectively, with环比 increases of 0.26302 million lots, 0.14217 million lots, 0.14916 million lots, and 0.19721 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.78581 million lots, 1.05743 million lots, 2.60074 million lots, and 3.56927 million lots respectively, with环比 changes of 0.01506 million lots, 0.0217 million lots, - 0.08282 million lots, and 0.03851 million lots respectively [6][8] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were - 0.94% and - 2.70% respectively. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.06. The trading volume of the two markets was 2,515.614 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.583 billion yuan compared with the previous day [8]

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）中国商务部连发四则公告，事关稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制。2） 美国政府关门难解：参院七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁砍民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要 动"大招"。3）美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。4）贝森特已面完 11 名美联储主席候选人，4 个人最有希望。美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎， 华尔街日报：凸显美联储内部分歧。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯：支持今年进一步降息，并 不认为经济处于衰退边缘。5）美国财长贝森特：赤字比降至 5 开头，希望几年后降至 3 开头。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market is at the peak of new - season harvesting and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. New - season low - and medium - protein soybean prices are gradually falling and may continue to bottom out as the listing volume increases [4]. - With the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential policies such as state reserves, the policy attribute of soybeans is strengthening, increasing the uncertainty of price trends [4]. - The sharp rise of soybean futures contracts on Thursday is unexpected given the large spot pressure, possibly related to the recent deterioration of trade situation. Further price increases will face hedging pressure, and the main contract is transitioning to 01 [4]. - The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - In October, due to the new - season concentrated harvest and listing, the price pressure is large, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the soybean 11 contract is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.92% and a historical percentile of 22.5% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, when there is a large demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at the price range of 4000 - 4050. Also, selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at the range of 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on long - term procurement management by taking long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the closing price of soybean 11 increased from 3927 to 3975, a daily increase of 48 (1.22%); the closing price of soybean 01 increased from 3904 to 3973, a daily increase of 69 (1.77%); the closing price of soybean 03 increased from 3903 to 3970, a daily increase of 67 (1.72%); the closing price of soybean 05 increased from 3936 to 4000, a daily increase of 64 (1.63%); the closing price of soybean 07 increased from 3942 to 3997, a daily increase of 55 (1.40%); the closing price of soybean 09 increased from 3944 to 4000, a daily increase of 56 (1.42%) [5]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: In October, the domestic soybean market is in the new - season concentrated harvest and listing period, with large price pressure and limited rebound space [4]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: Policy factors such as state reserves and two - way auctions also affect the market, and the uncertainty of price trends increases [4][7].

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月10日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 四季度处于新季玉米集中供应期，10月份收获以及集中上市压力较大，供需结构阶段性失衡导致价格易跌难 涨，新季玉米价格高开后一路走低； 连盘玉米期货震荡下跌运行，继续消化新季上市带来的供应压力，价格重心有进一步下移可能，关注因上量 冲击造成价格超跌带来的底部机会； CBOT玉米期价低位盘整，等待美国农业部10月供需报告的进一步指引； 【利多因素】 1、玉米及谷物进口数量维持低水平，为中期玉米供需结构改善提供基础； 4、10月7日，农业农村部召开会议，调度秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种情况。强调全力应对黄淮海地区持续连阴雨 天气影响，切实抓好秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种工作，及时协调解决基层困难，全力以赴做好黄淮海地区"三秋"生 产工作。 【利空因素】 1、生猪产业处于产能调控过程中，或中期影响玉米饲用需求； 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | 玉米 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | 玉米淀粉 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sudden news of a coal mine accident, combined with the public opinion effect of safety production assessment inspections and the market sentiment boost from the rise of related varieties such as gold and non - ferrous metals, drove the futures market to rise. However, the actual supply impact of the coal mine accident was limited, and it was more of a short - term emotional drive [3]. - During the holiday, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was weak, and the inventory accumulation rate was significantly faster than in previous years. The inventory - to - sales ratio had climbed to a high level in the same period in recent years, indicating significant de - stocking pressure on steel products [3]. - Long - process steel mills still had some profit margins and had a low willingness to cut production actively, while there were no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. The contradiction between high supply and insufficient demand persisted, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually accumulating [3]. - Although there was replenishment support on the raw material side before the holiday, it was expected that the post - holiday replenishment momentum would weaken under the state of steel's super - seasonal inventory accumulation. The strengthening of the futures market was only a rebound driven by events and emotional repair, not a fundamental - driven reversal. The upward resistance was significant, and the market was expected to remain under pressure in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted price range for the 01 - contract of rebar in October was 2900 - 3300 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.7%. The predicted price range for the 01 - contract of hot - rolled coil was 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 11.95% and a volatility percentile of 13.34% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling steel prices, it was recommended to short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio for RB2501 and HC2501 was 30%, with the entry range of 3130 - 3200 yuan/ton for RB2501 and 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton for HC2501. Selling call options (RB2601C3400) was also recommended to reduce capital costs, with a ratio of 20% and an entry range of 30 - 40 yuan [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, it was recommended to buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio for RB2601 and HC2601 was 30%, with the entry range of 3000 - 3050 yuan/ton for RB2601 and 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton for HC2601. Selling put options (RB2601P2900) was also recommended to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a ratio of 20% and an entry range of 35 - 45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3096 yuan/ton, 3159 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 24 yuan/ton, 31 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly changes of - 68 yuan/ton, - 68 yuan/ton, and - 51 yuan/ton respectively. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3286 yuan/ton, 3293 yuan/ton, and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 33 yuan/ton, 34 yuan/ton, and - 14 yuan/ton respectively, and weekly changes of - 71 yuan/ton, - 72 yuan/ton, and - 44 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 9, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Tianjin were 3258 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, 3290 yuan/ton, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3350 yuan/ton, 3320 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Overseas Data**: As of October 9, 2025, the FOB export prices of hot - rolled coil in China, Japan, India, Turkey, and the CIS were 480 US dollars/ton, 500 US dollars/ton, 512 US dollars/ton, 540 US dollars/ton, and 485 US dollars/ton respectively. The CFR import prices in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, the EU, and India were 493 US dollars/ton, 530 US dollars/ton, 565 US dollars/ton, and 422 US dollars/ton respectively [6]. - **Spread Data**: On October 9, 2025, the 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of rebar were - 63 yuan/ton, 139 yuan/ton, and - 76 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - 05, 05 - 10, and 10 - 01 month - spreads of hot - rolled coil were - 7 yuan/ton, - 125 yuan/ton, and 84 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 181 yuan/ton, 131 yuan/ton, and 350 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 ratios of rebar to iron ore were 3.94, 4.12, and 4.04 respectively, and the 01, 05, and 10 ratios of rebar to coke were 1.89, 1.77, and 1.62 respectively [6][8][10]. 3.4 Seasonal Data The report also provided a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar and hot - rolled coil basis, month - spreads, profits, costs, and inventory, etc., which could help investors understand the historical laws of the market and make more informed investment decisions [13][15][27][33][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and it is not advisable to chase high after the rebound. Partial profit - taking of long positions can be considered [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. Trading volume of TF, T, and TL contracts decreased significantly. Cash bond trading was light, and yields declined across the board. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.33. Open - market reverse repurchase was 61.2 billion,买断式逆回购 was 110 billion, and the net withdrawal was 35.13 billion [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The minutes of the Fed's September monetary policy meeting showed differences within the Fed regarding the subsequent rate - cut amplitude. The Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export controls on relevant overseas rare - earth items [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Treasury bond futures continued the pre - holiday rebound trend today, unaffected by the sharp rise in the stock market. Due to some investment managers and traders still on vacation, market trading was relatively light. The National Development and Reform Commission announced at a press conference before the holiday that it would work with relevant parties to promote new policy - based financial instruments with a scale of 500 billion yuan to supplement project capital. In the future, attention should be paid to the central bank's specific arrangements for this policy. In the short term, the central bank may still prefer to use structural tools to support the real economy and postpone the timing of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts [3]. 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 09 Price | 2025 - 09 - 30 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 10 - 09 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 30 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.41 | 102.374 | 0.036 | 75,441 | 74,895 | 546 | | TF2512 | 105.75 | 105.655 | 0.095 | 149,401 | 150,436 | - 1035 | | T2512 | 108.05 | 107.885 | 0.165 | 252,116 | 249,185 | 2931 | | TL2512 | 114.53 | 114 | 0.53 | 174,133 | 170,726 | 3407 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0372 | - 0.0131 | - 0.0241 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 29,898 | 29,604 | 294 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.034 | - 0.0013 | - 0.0327 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 51,620 | 62,260 | - 10640 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0524 | 0.2077 | - 0.1553 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 73,515 | 91,682 | - 18167 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3574 | - 0.0384 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 97,276 | 135,369 | - 38093 | [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened lower, declined, and then fluctuated upwards. By the close, all EC contracts' prices had declined to varying degrees, with the 02 and 06 contracts dropping by over 10%. [3] - The initial low - opening and decline of today's futures price were mainly due to the preliminary agreement on the Gaza cease - fire negotiation, which negatively affected market sentiment and caused the futures price, especially that of the far - month contracts, to fall. Additionally, Maersk's announcement of the European Line booking quotes for late October, which were the same as the previous week's, led to a recovery in the futures price. [3] - In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue fluctuating. However, given past precedents, the Gaza cease - fire process may be volatile, so relevant situations need close attention. Strategically, it is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct intraday short - term operations. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes and are worried about falling freight rates (long position), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1750 - 1800. [2] - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or when the peak season is approaching, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short position), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at an entry range of 1550 - 1600 to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs. [2] Market Data - **EC Contracts' Price and Position Data**: The EC2510 contract's long - position holders reduced their positions by 2031 lots to 12580 lots, and short - position holders reduced by 1651 lots to 13367 lots. The trading volume increased by 3842 lots to 20660 lots (bilateral). [3] - **EC Contracts' Closing Prices and Changes**: On October 9, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1119.9 points, up 0.84% daily and 0.49% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1688.0 points, down 2.53% daily and 0.50% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1406.0 points, down 14.41% daily and 11.47% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1119.9 points, down 9.95% daily and 11.19% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1277.5 points, down 13.05% daily and 11.61% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1438.6 points, down 9.85% daily and 9.73% weekly. [7] - **Global Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS for the European route was 1046.5 points, down 73.99 points or 6.60% from the previous value; for the US - West route, it was 876.82 points, down 44.43 points or 4.82%. SCFI for the European route was $971/TEU, down $81 or 7.70%; for the US - West route, it was $1460/FEU, down $176 or 10.76%. XSI for the European route was $1783/FEU, down $53 or 2.89%; for the US - West route, it was $1768/FEU, down $4 or 0.2%. The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1613/FEU, down $25 or 1.53%. [10] - **Container Shipping Quotes**: On October 24, Maersk's total quotes for 20GP and 40GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam were $1080 and $1800 respectively, the same as the previous week's opening quotes. [9] - **Global Major Ports' Waiting Times**: On October 8, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.543 days, up 0.097 days from the previous day; Shanghai Port was 0.821 days, down 0.322 days; Yantian Port was 1.516 days, down 0.315 days; Singapore Port was 0.620 days, up 0.109 days; Jakarta Port was 1.112 days, down 0.031 days; Long Beach Port was 2.209 days, up 0.002 days; Savannah Port was 1.583 days, up 0.565 days. [17] - **Container Ship Speeds and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal**: On October 8, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.55 knots, up 0.067 knots from the previous day; 3000 + container ships was 14.941 knots, up 0.066 knots; 1000 + container ships was 13.276 knots, up 0.064 knots. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 8, down 6 from the previous day. [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, while the demand is weak, leading to a difficult - to - change inventory accumulation pattern. The supply of styrene is tightening due to increased device maintenance, and it is expected to increase in mid - to - late October when new device production is realized. From September to November, styrene will maintain a tight balance, but its upward space is limited. In the short term, it will mainly follow crude oil fluctuations, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading. One can consider widening the price spread between pure benzene and styrene when the price is low [4]. - Macro factors such as the "anti - involution", the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan outline need to be monitored. In the absence of obvious fundamental drivers, macro sentiment will affect the market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be between 5,600 and 6,200 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is between 6,600 and 7,200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2511) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6,850 - 6,950 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (EB2511C7000) with a 50% ratio at a premium range of 45 - 60 to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if styrene prices rise [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6,700 - 6,750 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (EB2511P6800) with a 75% ratio at a premium range of 120 - 140 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if styrene prices fall [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Pure Benzene**: In the fourth quarter, the overall maintenance loss of pure benzene is not high, small long - shut devices plan to resume production, and there are import transactions from Europe to China. On the demand side, downstream production and maintenance coexist, and the peak season is likely to be weak this year, so the high supply cannot be digested, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [4]. - **Styrene**: Device maintenance has increased, and the supply has tightened. New device production is expected to increase supply in mid - to - late October. From September to November, it will maintain a tight balance, but high inventory and the drag from upstream pure benzene limit its upward space [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: As of October 9, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.5 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 33.7%. Multiple styrene devices, including Jingbosi D睿, Anhui Jiaxi, and Lianyungang Petrochemical, plan to shut down for maintenance, making it difficult to further compress the price spread between pure benzene and styrene [4]. - **利空 Factors**: As of October 9, the port sample inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 0.44 million tons compared to the previous period, an increase of 2.23%. Some devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical have restarted as planned, offsetting part of the new maintenance losses. Two large - scale styrene devices of Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.4 Basis and Price Spread Changes - **Basis Changes**: The basis of pure benzene and styrene in the East China market has changed compared to the previous period. For example, the basis of East China - BZ03 for pure benzene decreased from 60 to - 13, a decrease of 73 [8]. - **Price Spread Changes**: The price spreads of pure benzene, styrene, and the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the price spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot increased from 1,035 to 1,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Price and Profit Data - **Price Data**: The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil on October 9 was 66.08 US dollars/barrel, and the price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [9]. - **Profit Data**: The production profits of pure benzene and the profits of downstream products of styrene have also changed. For example, the production profit of pure benzene increased from 173 to 314 yuan/ton, an increase of 141 yuan/ton [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China - US negotiations. The market will remain in a narrow bottom - range oscillation until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The short - term impact of the quarterly inventory report during the holiday is neutral, and attention should be paid to whether the October USDA report will adjust the previous yield. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is recovering, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is constrained by high near - term inventory, and the domestic market is expected to be under pressure, but there are opportunities for long - position valuation repair supported by costs. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly affected by China - Canada negotiation results and is influenced by supply recovery expectations and soybean meal in the short term [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps, and the Brazilian export premium supports far - month contract prices from the cost side. However, the near - term supply is high, with high port and oil - mill inventories of imported soybeans in China, increasing oil - mill crushing volumes, and a seasonal inventory build - up trend for soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure the dominant factor in the market [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.4%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.6% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory and wanting to purchase based on orders, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2939 | 11 | 0.38% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2755 | 17 | 0.62% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2863 | 16 | 0.56% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2435 | 14 | 0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2334 | 17 | 0.73% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2415 | 12 | 0.5% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1029.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1527 | 0.0096 | 0.13% | [6][8] 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 184 with a daily change of - 6, and the RM01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 101 with a daily change of - 3. - The M05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 108 with a daily change of 1, and the RM05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is - 81 with a daily change of 5. - The M09 - 01 spread of soybean meal is - 76 with a daily change of 5, and the RM09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal is - 20 with a daily change of - 2. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2950 with a daily change of 10, and the basis is 11 with a daily change of - 1. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2540 with no daily change, and the basis is 105 with no daily change. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a daily change of 10, and the futures price spread is 504 with a daily change of - 3 [9]. 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4471.4503 | - 32.1737 | 0.031 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3975.71 | 67.65 | 65.91 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 727.0651 | - 12.6593 | - 12.0831 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 622.9153 | - 32.1737 | - 44.9143 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 30.936 | - 5.1388 | - 0.2864 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 1027 | 29 | 188 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1247 | 49 | 211 | [10]