Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 [3] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock index showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices falling and small - and medium - cap indices rising slightly. The trading volume of the two markets shrank slightly. Some previously leading sectors adjusted significantly. From futures indicators, the basis of each contract declined, and trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating a cooling market sentiment. The index may undergo a phased adjustment, but the positive trend logic remains unchanged. If there are unexpected policies released after the Politburo meeting next week, it will drive the index up [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 57.369 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM rose on shrinking volume, while other varieties fell on shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law. The draft improves the criteria for identifying predatory pricing, regulates market price order, and addresses "involution - style" competition, as well as the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors such as price collusion, price gouging, and price discrimination [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.50 | - 0.60 | - 0.03 | 0.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2446 | 4.7227 | 7.6933 | 15.9413 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.1687 | - 0.6615 | - 1.8535 | - 4.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.0176 | 9.744 | 22.5556 | 32.7023 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.1192 | - 0.3451 | - 0.4233 | - 1.129 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.33 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.22 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.93 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 17873.37 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 573.69 | [8]

1. Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar - making season, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil and a high sugar - to - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season sugar production in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger with a short - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5900 - 6000 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 25% ratio at 40 - 50 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5750 - 5800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5800) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's slow production progress and high sugar - to - ethanol ratio lead to an increasing expectation of reduced production, causing price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger due to the open profit window for out - of - quota imports [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Domestic Sales and Inventory**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. June's single - month sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [6]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [6]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crush of 206.198 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.747 billion tons (14.06%); cane ATR was 122.19 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.14 kg/ton year - on - year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points year - on - year; cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.639 billion liters (14.81%); and cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.036 million tons (14.25%) [6]. - **Import Reduction**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 10.35 million tons [8]. - **Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [8]. - **Market Demand**: Trump announced that Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again and launch new sugar - containing cola, and PepsiCo is also willing to enter the sugar - containing cola market if there is demand [9]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Production**: In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crush was 485.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.847 million tons; mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons; and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - **Brazilian Production Forecast**: Analysts at JOB expect Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9]. - **Thai Production Forecast**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [9]. - **Indian Production Forecast**: India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million tons, due to favorable monsoon conditions, expanded cane - planting areas in major producing regions, and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price [9]. - **Import Volume**: In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the profit for out - of - quota imports is open [9]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Base Difference**: On July 25, 2025, the base differences between Nanning and various futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and between Kunming and various futures contracts showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their spreads were presented. For example, SR01 closed at 5706, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a weekly increase of 0.88% [11]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao and their regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, Nanning's price was 6050, with no daily or weekly change [12]. - **Import Price**: On July 25, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices (Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou sugar) showed different daily and weekly changes [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang [2] Core Views - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early-maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. After August, the supply of early-maturing apples will increase significantly, and consumption should be monitored [4]. - The main bullish factors are that the inventory in apple-producing areas is at a historical low, and unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention, with possible large-scale production cuts in the Northwest [4]. - The main bearish factors are that the overall production cut is less than expected based on bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits is approaching, which impacts apple sales and reflects weak consumption [4][5]. Price Forecast and Strategy Recommendations Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7,650 - 7,950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past three years [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: To prevent losses from new - season inventory accumulation, enterprises can short sell Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 8,100 - 8,150 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, buyers can buy Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 7,900 - 7,950 [3]. Price and Inventory Data Apple Futures and Spot Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7,879 | 0.33% | 1.65% | | AP03 | 7,790 | 0.37% | 1.5% | |... |... |... |... | [5] Inventory Data - **Steel Union Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 70.45 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 10.15. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 11.12, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 3.65, down 0.98; Gansu's was 2.77, down 0.92 [7]. - **Zhuochuang Data**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 100.07 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 8.76. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 12.31, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 7.03, down 0.65 [7]. Wholesale Market Arrival Data | Market | Arrival Quantity | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangdong Chalong | 16 | - 3 | | Guangdong Jiangmen | 8 | - 1 | | Guangdong Xiaqiao | 10 | - 2 | [7]

source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 | EG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 4550-4700 | | | | | 空乙二醇期货来锁定利润， | | | | | | | | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | 跌 | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大 | EG2509P4450 | 买入 | | 10-30 | | | | | 跌，同时卖出看涨期权降低 | | | 50% | | | | | | 资金成本 | EG2509C4650 | 卖出 | | 60-100 | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏 低，希望根据订单 | 空 | 为了防止乙二醇价格上涨而 抬升采购成本，可以在目前 | EG2509 | 买入 | 50% | 4300-4400 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with policy expectations yet to be disproven, and there is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic [2] - Bullish factors include anti - involution expectations, rising coal costs, commodity resonance, and the upward movement of the futures market stimulating speculative demand and driving a positive feedback between futures and spot prices [2] - Bearish factors are that the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved [2] - Policy expectations persist, and the futures market remains strong. Attention should be paid to the amplitude of the resonance between the macro and industrial sectors and wait for the next policy guidance [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for soda ash is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1] Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling glass prices, short glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1500 and sell call options (FG509C1500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising glass prices, buy glass futures (FG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 and sell put options (FG509P1200) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling soda ash prices, short soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1600 and sell call options (SA509C1600) with a 50% hedging ratio at 40 - 60. When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising soda ash prices, buy soda ash futures (SA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 1200 - 1250 and sell put options (SA509P1300) with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 [1] Glass Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1461, 1362, and 1426 respectively, with daily increases of 1.67%, 4.21%, and 1.71%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 64, and - 35 respectively, with the (5 - 9) spread decreasing by 31 and the (9 - 1) spread increasing by 31 [2] Glass Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1289.4, an increase of 52.6 from the previous day. The prices in different regions also showed varying degrees of increase, such as a 30 increase in North China and a 10 increase in South China [5] Soda Ash Futures Prices and Spreads - On July 25, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1539, 1440, and 1516 respectively, with daily increases of 1.38%, 2.27%, and 2.09%. The spreads (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) were 99, - 76, and - 23 respectively, with varying degrees of change [6] Soda Ash Spot Prices - On July 25, 2025, the prices of heavy soda ash and light soda ash in different regions all increased to varying degrees, such as a 50 increase in North China and a 70 increase in East China [7] Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on the daily output of float glass in China, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in China, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash in China, and the loss volume of soda ash in China, as well as the seasonal data of the basis of glass and soda ash contracts in different regions and the seasonal data of the daily sales - to - production ratio of glass in different regions [8][23][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New cotton listing, domestic cotton inventory shortage will support cotton prices, but high - cost old cotton may enter the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is a high - yield expectation for the far - month, so the upside of cotton prices is limited [4] - Pay attention to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, off - season cotton inventory reduction speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Market 3.1.1 Supply - As of July 17, the national new cotton sales rate was 95.8%, up 8.3 percentage points year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1] 3.1.2 Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month and 130,000 tons from the same period last year; cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month and the same as the same period last year; cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% from the previous month and 24.37% from the same period last year [1] 3.1.3 Demand - In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, a 4.08% increase from the previous month and a 3.10% increase year - on - year; textile and clothing export volume was 27.315 billion US dollars, a 4.22% increase from the previous month and a 0.13% decrease year - on - year [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - As of July 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, including 2.5424 million tons of commercial inventory (a decrease of 287,400 tons from the end of June) and 882,100 tons of industrial inventory (a decrease of 20,900 tons from the end of June) [1] 3.2 International Market 3.2.1 US Supply - As of July 20, the cotton budding rate in the US was 71%, 8% behind the same period last year and 4% behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7% behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the overall excellent rate of cotton plants was 57%, 3 percentage points higher than the previous month and 4 percentage points higher year - on - year [1] 3.2.2 US Demand - From July 11 - 17, the net signing of US 24/25 annual upland cotton was - 7,416 tons, a significant decrease compared with last week and the four - week average; the shipment of upland cotton was 41,912 tons, an 18% increase from the previous month and a 12% decrease compared with the four - week average; the net signing of Pima cotton was 1,247 tons, and the shipment was 1,134 tons; the signing of new - season upland cotton was 30,073 tons, and the signing of new - season Pima cotton was 3,946 tons [1] 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Supply - As of July 18, the new - season cotton sown area in India was 9.86 million hectares, a decrease of about 3.4% year - on - year [1] 3.2.4 Southeast Asian Demand - In June, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.597 billion US dollars, a 9.45% increase from the previous month and a 13.86% increase year - on - year; Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a 28.87% decrease from the previous month and a 6.31% decrease year - on - year; India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a 13.30% decrease from the previous month and a 1.23% increase year - on - year; Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a 0.60% decrease from the previous month and a 7.59% increase year - on - year [1] 3.3 Market Trends and Expectations - Last week, domestic cotton prices were strong, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened significantly. This week, some long - positions shifted, the near - month contract fluctuated narrowly, and the far - month contract was strong, with the spread quickly repaired [4] - Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak boll - forming period. Although pests are more severe than last year, they are generally controllable, and the overall development progress is fast with good growth. The temperature in Xinjiang may drop next week, and the new - season output is still expected to be optimistic [4] - Mainland spinning mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, but Xinjiang spinning mills have a high operating rate, supporting the rigid consumption of cotton. Recently, the downstream finished product inventory has decreased slightly, but there is still some pressure [4] - As of the week of July 19, Brazil's cotton picking progress was about 16.7%, with faster progress in Bahia. The Brazilian industry association expects the new - season cotton output to increase by 7% year - on - year to 3.96 million tons [4] - India's overall cotton planting progress is behind schedule, and the monsoon rainfall in central and north - western India is significantly higher than the historical average. Attention should be paid to possible pest impacts under heavy rainfall [4]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures opened with a significant decline and then continued to fluctuate downward. By the close, the prices of EC monthly contracts showed mixed trends. The reduction in the spot cabin quotes of Maersk and ONE lowered the valuation of the current near - month contract futures prices, leading to a decline in futures prices. However, the potential for relatively low tariffs between the US and Europe and the expected recovery of trade have a certain positive impact on the far - month futures prices. The futures prices still have bottom support, and the SCFI European route has slightly rebounded. Near - month contracts are more likely to experience a short - term correction, but the overall trend may still be slightly downward with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Cabin Management**: For those who have already obtained cabins but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended selling range of 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and one wants to book cabins according to order situations (short spot exposure), they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance, with a recommended buying range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. Market Data Analysis Position and Trading Volume Changes - For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 559 lots to 25,266 lots, short positions decreased by 236 lots to 31,305 lots, and trading volume decreased by 19,270 lots to 50,437 lots (bilateral) [1]. Basis Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 187.90 | 32.30 | 53.30 | | EC2510 | 873.00 | 56.40 | 85.50 | | EC2512 | 680.30 | 59.70 | 70.80 | | EC2602 | 881.70 | 43.50 | - 23.70 | | EC2604 | 1038.80 | 20.30 | - 32.30 | | EC2606 | 882.5 | - 11.10 | - 96.14 | [4][5] Futures Price and Spread Changes | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2212.6 | - 1.44% | - 2.35% | EC2508 - 2512 | 492.4 | 27.4 | 17.5 | | EC2510 | 1527.5 | - 3.56% | - 5.30% | EC2512 - 2604 | 358.5 | - 39.4 | - 119.7 | | EC2512 | 1720.2 | - 3.35% | - 3.95% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 850.9 | 12.0 | 21.3 | | EC2602 | 1518.8 | - 2.78% | 1.59% | EC2508 - 2510 | 685.1 | 27.4 | 32.2 | | EC2604 | 1361.7 | 0.15% | 2.43% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 192.7 | 3.3 | - 14.7 | | EC2606 | 1518.0 | 0.74% | 5.18% | EC2512 - 2602 | 201.4 | - 16.2 | - 94.2 | [5] Market News and Quotes Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 7, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP increased by $7 to $1822, and the total quote for 40GP increased by $14 to $3064 compared to the previous period. For ONE's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam in mid - to - early August, the total quote for 20GP decreased by $493 to $2321, and the total quote for 40GP decreased by $500 to $3143 compared to the previous period [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 2400.5 | 2421.94 | - 21.44 | - 0.89% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1301.81 | 1266.59 | 35.22 | 2.78% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 2090 | 2079 | 11 | 0.53% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2067 | 2142 | - 75 | - 3.50% | | XSI: European Route ($/FEU) | 3406 | 3407 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | XSI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 2216 | 2248 | - 32 | - 1.4% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2366 | 2348 | 18 | 0.77% | [8] Port - Related Data Global Main Port Waiting Times | Port | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 1.080 | 1.312 | - 0.232 | 0.455 | | Shanghai Port | 1.169 | 1.212 | - 0.043 | 1.423 | | Yantian Port | 1.253 | 0.868 | 0.385 | 0.565 | | Singapore Port | 0.556 | 0.513 | 0.043 | 0.554 | | Jakarta Port | 10.642 | 2.050 | 8.592 | 1.759 | | Long Beach Port | 1.909 | 1.927 | - 0.018 | 2.572 | | Savannah Port | 1.535 | 1.431 | 0.104 | 1.449 | [15] Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity in Suez Canal | Ship Type | July 24, 2025 | July 23, 2025 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.794 | 15.843 | - 0.049 | 15.904 | | 3000+ | 14.861 | 15.037 | - 0.176 | 14.73 | | 1000+ | 13.134 | 13.269 | - 0.135 | 13.232 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 13 | 18 | - 5 | 11 | [23]

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年7月25日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 沥青风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例（%） 建议入场区间 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心沥青价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 | bu2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 3650-3750 | | | 下跌 | | 沥青期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订 | 空 | 为了防止沥青价格上涨 ...

南华期货硅产业链周报 ——宏观预期与成本推动，整体偏强运行 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年07月25日 一、周度总结 工业硅 【行情回顾】 本周工业硅期货震荡走强，加权指数合约收于9709元/吨，周环比上涨11.54%；成交量95.72万手，周环比 降低50.89%，持仓量56.83万手，周环比减少5万手；工业硅SI2509-SI2511月差维持back结构；仓单数量 49710手，周环比下降683手。 【产业表现】 本周硅产业链现货市场报价平稳。 供给：硅石报价平稳，工业硅及硅粉市场报价整体上涨，周度涨幅超20%，工业硅开工率小幅上扬，产量环 比增加605吨。 需求：有机硅市场报价环比上涨14.75%，开工率稳定，当前产量处于高位；铝合金市场仍处于淡季，报价平 稳，下游按需采购。 库存：本周工业硅周度库存环比下降0.755万吨，铝合金库存环比上涨，再生铝合金库存环比走弱。 【核心逻辑】 基本面看，工业硅处于落后产能出清的产业周期逻辑，供应过剩压力持续。丰水期临近 ...

Report Details 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The trading desk is advised to wait and see temporarily [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures fluctuated higher in the morning, declined in the afternoon, and plunged at the end of the session, with most closing down. In the cash bond market, yields initially fell by up to 4bp in the morning, rebounded in the afternoon, and then declined again after the market, halting the continuous upward trend. Short - term bonds outperformed long - term bonds [2] - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with 187.5 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan, which improved market sentiment [2] 3.2 News and Policy - The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a mid - year work meeting on July 24, emphasizing that although the internal and external environment of the capital market remains complex, the certainty of high - quality economic development, macro - policy expectations, and the valuation repair of Chinese assets provide a basis for the stable and healthy operation of the market [3] - Deputy Governor Zou Lan mentioned coordinating treasury bond issuance with the Ministry of Finance during the session, which improved the sentiment of bond market bulls [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - The central bank's net injection of over 600 billion yuan alleviated market tension. The central bank's supportive monetary policy stance is the last and strongest support for the bulls [4] - The A - share market adjusted during the session, with the broader market weaker than small and medium - cap stocks. The TMT sector, which had been continuously adjusting, rebounded, while sectors such as building materials and building decoration related to the Ya - Xia concept led the decline, and upstream resource stocks significantly adjusted. There was a divergence between the equity market and the commodity market, with commodities remaining strong [4] - The late - session plunge in treasury bond futures may have been affected by the strong performance of commodities [4] 3.4 Data Overview - Data for various treasury bond futures contracts (TS2509, TF2509, T2509, TL2509) including opening, closing, high, low prices, and changes, as well as contract positions and trading volumes are provided. Data on various deposit - based inter - bank repurchase rates (DR001, DR007, DR014) and their trading volumes are also presented [5]