Report Title - The outlook for the steel market in the fourth quarter of 2025 by Nanhua Futures: A glimmer of hope but lacking momentum [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to show a volatile trend with a ceiling and a floor. The upper pressure comes from the current supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals and unclear supply - demand adjustment policies, while the lower support is due to the continuous resilience of export demand and the expectation of supply contraction [3]. - The fourth - quarter demand performance is crucial. If demand recovers, the high - supply pattern may continue and drive up prices; if demand remains weak, the risk of oversupply will intensify [7]. - The market is highly concerned about the implementation and enforcement of supply - side policies, especially the "anti - involution" policy [8]. - Although the market has not triggered large - scale negative feedback, the squeezed profit margin has sent a warning signal [9]. Summary by Directory 2. Third - quarter Market Review - In July, driven by the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy and the supply contraction caused by coal mine over - production inspections, the steel market rose. The low inventory at all links in the industry chain led to a bottom - up replenishment and increased speculative demand, resulting in a cost - driven price increase [4]. - In August, after the Politburo meeting in late July did not immediately introduce clear "anti - involution" implementation details, market optimism declined. The trading logic returned to fundamentals. High supply and weak demand led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation and price decline, showing signs of negative feedback [5]. - In September, the price premium from the "anti - involution" expectation was basically digested. The market refocused on macro factors. The cost support limited the downward space, and the market entered a volatile consolidation stage [5]. 3. Core Concerns 3.1 Fourth - quarter Demand Acceptance Capacity - Steel apparent consumption has been stable this year, but recent weak demand has led to inverse - seasonal inventory accumulation. Fourth - quarter demand is crucial for the balance of supply and demand [7]. 3.2 Impact of Supply - side Policies - The market is highly concerned about the implementation and enforcement of supply - side policies, especially the "anti - involution" policy and its potential impact on the steel supply structure and market expectations [8]. 3.3 Whether Negative Feedback Production Cuts Will Be Triggered - The squeezed profit margin has sent a warning signal. The market is closely watching whether negative feedback will form and lead to active production cuts by steel mills [9]. 4. Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - The recent strengthening of the basis reflects the market's pessimistic expectation of future supply and demand, but it is still in a neutral range in the long - term and seasonal perspective [10]. - The current core contradiction is the over - seasonal inventory accumulation caused by high supply and weak demand. The profit margin is in a neutral - high range, and there is still room for further compression [10]. - The current 01 contract coil - to - rebar spread is above the normal cost difference range. Although it is reasonable based on fundamentals, it is at a high level and showing a weakening trend, indicating a potential downward adjustment in steel valuation [11]. 4.2 Steel Demand Outlook 4.2.1 Real Estate: Yet to Stabilize - The real estate market showed a short - term recovery last year, but sales and prices have weakened again this year. The real estate end's steel consumption, mainly in new construction and construction, is still weak due to factors such as low developer investment willingness and high inventory [16][20]. 4.2.2 Infrastructure: Tight Capital in the Debt - Resolution Context - In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down. The power, water, transportation, and water conservancy sectors have all weakened. The current debt - resolution and "anti - involution" policies have restricted investment. The slow issuance of special bonds and the focus on debt - resolution and land acquisition have led to tight infrastructure funds, and the physical workload in the fourth quarter is expected to be low [23][28]. 4.2.3 Manufacturing: Domestic Demand Weakening, External Demand Resilient - Domestic manufacturing demand has shown a "strong - then - weak" trend this year. The "anti - involution" policy and the weakening effect of previous policies have led to a slowdown in domestic demand. However, external demand is expected to remain resilient due to China's product cost - effectiveness and the stable overseas demand environment [36][40]. 4.2.4 Direct Steel Exports: Demand Increment and Cost Substitution - From January to August, China's steel and billet exports increased significantly. The growth is mainly due to overseas demand expansion and cost substitution. However, there are risks such as export inspections and anti - dumping investigations in the future [43]. 4.2.5 Summary of the Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook in 2025 - From January to September, the overall demand showed some resilience, but there may be speculative demand in the third - quarter. In the fourth quarter, demand growth momentum is expected to weaken. Real estate demand will remain under pressure, infrastructure demand will be weak, domestic manufacturing demand will decline, and direct steel exports may slow down [57][59]. 4.3 Supply and Inventory 4.3.1 Supply Overview: Deviation between Third - Party and Statistical Data - As of September 18, the daily average pig iron output and scrap consumption increased compared to last year according to third - party data, but the statistical data shows a decrease in crude steel production. There is a deviation between the two [61]. 4.3.2 How to View the "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry? - The market has not achieved the rumored annual crude steel production reduction target. The "anti - involution" policy has not had a significant impact. Steel mills have high production enthusiasm due to good profits. The policy may be included in the "14th Five - Year Plan" for industry governance, but in the short term, steel supply will remain elastic [64][65]. 4.3.3 Whether Negative Feedback Production Cuts Are Needed? - Steel mills still have some profit margins and limited motivation for self - initiated production cuts. If demand remains weak and supply stays high, the market may enter a negative - feedback adjustment stage. The raw material cost support limits the downward space of steel prices [67][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is in an oversupply cycle in 2025, and the bearish situation is difficult to break. The market focus in the second half of 2025 will be on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. - In the third quarter, the market may first trade on Brazil's potential production cut, which could drive up sugar prices. The domestic sugar price has support around 5300 yuan/ton, and the overseas market has support at 15.2 cents/pound. However, when the market supply returns to Asia, the market will face pressure again [1]. - In the fourth quarter, the SR2601 price is expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5600 yuan/ton, showing an overall downward - trending oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - In the first half of 2025, the sugar market fluctuated widely. Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) fluctuated between 5600 - 6100 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16.2 - 19.76 cents/pound. The market was mainly influenced by India's sugar supply and exports in the 24/25 season, China's import restrictions on syrup and premixed powder, China's sugar supply, and production estimates for Brazil, India, and Thailand in the 25/26 season [1]. - In the second half of 2025, the market will focus on Brazil's 25/26 crushing season output, India and Thailand's 25/26 output estimates and actual production, India's export expectations, domestic sugar consumption and inventory, 25/26 domestic sugar production estimates, and import policies [1]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, the sugar market declined in an oscillatory manner. Zheng sugar fluctuated between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton, and raw sugar fluctuated between 16 - 17.6 cents/pound [3]. - The price fluctuations in July were due to lower - than - expected Chinese import data in June, potential low actual arrivals of imported sugar in July, delayed concentrated production of refined sugar until August - September, the rebound of Brazilian ethanol prices which restricted the continuous increase of the sugar - making ratio, and the impact of rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region on the sugarcane harvest progress [3][4]. - The price fluctuations in August were influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported sugar, the shift of the main contract from 09 to 01, concerns about the quality of Brazilian sugarcane, a high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, a large volume of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports, and expectations of increased production in India and Thailand [7]. - The price decline in September was mainly due to the good prospects of sugarcane harvest in India and Thailand, which continuously suppressed domestic and international sugar prices [5]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.3.1 China Market - **Inventory and Supply Pressure**: The 24/25 crushing season in China produced 1116.21 million tons of sugar, putting significant supply pressure. As of the end of August, the national inventory was 116.23 million tons, and the final carry - over inventory was estimated to be 56.23 million tons [7][10]. - **Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China cumulatively imported 262 million tons of sugar. The 9 - 12 month import volume in 2025 is expected to be at least 250 million tons, with importers likely to import more in September - October. The estimated import volumes for September - December 2025 are 70 million tons, 65 million tons, 60 million tons, and 55 million tons respectively [12][13]. - **Syrup and Premixed Powder**: In 2025, the import volume of syrup and premixed powder is expected to be over 100 million tons. The tax policies for imports have changed, with some countries having different tax rates and regulations [19][21]. - **25/26 Crushing Season Production**: The estimated national sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is 1155 million tons, an increase of 38 million tons compared to the previous season. Production in different regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang is expected to change to varying degrees [23]. 3.3.2 Brazil - **Production**: As of the end of August in the 25/26 crushing season, Brazil's central - southern region had cumulatively processed 403.9 million tons of sugarcane, a 4.78% decrease year - on - year. The estimated total sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season is about 44.56 million tons [25][26]. - **Export**: As of the end of August, Brazil had exported 14.5119 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season. The estimated export volume from September 2025 to March 2026 is about 17.3 million tons, and the carry - over inventory at the end of the 25/26 crushing season is estimated to be 4.3 million tons [28]. 3.3.3 India - **Production**: Based on current crop growth and rainfall, India's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane production may reach about 487 million tons, an 8% increase compared to the 24/25 season. Different institutions estimate India's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to be between 3230 - 3490 million tons [30][31]. - **Export**: If India produces 34.9 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season, after subtracting 4.5 million tons for ethanol use, the net sugar production will be 30.4 million tons. Assuming domestic consumption of 28.4 million tons, there will be a surplus of 7.284 million tons. If 2 million tons are exported, the ending inventory will remain at 5.284 million tons [33][34]. 3.3.4 Thailand - **Production**: Thailand's 25/26 crushing season sugarcane planting area may reach 1.68 million hectares, an increase of over 8%. The sugar production is expected to be between 10.3 - 11.4 million tons [36]. - **Export**: Thailand's domestic sugar consumption is relatively stable, and it is the world's second - largest sugar exporter. The estimated export volume in the 25/26 crushing season is 6.8 million tons, but it may face competition from India and Brazil [38]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Sugar Valuation Feedback - **Zheng Sugar Valuation**: Calculated based on a 510 yuan/ton sugarcane purchase price, the production cost of sugar in Guangxi is about 5580 yuan/ton, with a cost range of 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton. The current futures price is below the cost line, and the Zheng sugar futures price is usually lower than the Guangxi spot price. The current low price of the SR01 contract still has room to fall [40][41][42]. - **Raw Sugar Valuation**: Based on cost considerations, the ICE raw sugar price has strong support around 15.2 cents/pound. However, historically, during periods of global sugar oversupply, the futures price may break through the cost line. Different countries may adopt different policies in response to low sugar prices [44][45]. 3.4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **China's 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 25/26 crushing season, unless there are significant policy changes, the sugar price is likely to remain weak. The estimated production is 1155 million tons, the import volume is 500 million tons, and the syrup and premixed powder conversion is 80 million tons. The supply is expected to exceed demand [48][50]. - **Global 25/26 Crushing Season Supply - Demand Balance**: The global sugar supply - demand structure in the 25/26 crushing season has changed from a slight shortage in the 24/25 season to a significant oversupply. Most institutions predict an oversupply, and the global oversupply situation is expected to be significant [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - This week, the stock market showed a generally strong trend, mainly driven by internal policy boosts. The PMI data released today had both positive and negative aspects, with limited market reaction. Market sentiment was generally positive, but the trading volume in the two markets changed little, indicating a still existing stock trading situation. At the industry level, non - ferrous metals continued to be strong due to industry information, with the rise of gold for hedging and supply disruptions of copper and cobalt as the main drivers. The technology sector, represented by electronics and computers, also performed strongly due to industry benefits, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rising 1.69% today. Driven by the structural market within the week and optimistic sentiment, the stock index performed well before the holiday. Until next Wednesday when the domestic market is closed, focus on information related to the US government shutdown, US employment data, and the performance of major global stock indices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index continued its strong trend. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.45%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume in the two markets increased by 1.9949 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with reduced volume [2]. Important Information - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from August, achieving two consecutive months of recovery. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50%, at the critical point, with overall stable operation. The composite PMI output index remained in the expansion range [3]. - There is 1 day left until the US federal government shuts down, and the key negotiation between the two parties in Congress on the appropriation issue failed. According to Reuters, the existing funds of the US federal government will officially run out at midnight local time on September 30. To avoid a government shutdown, US President Trump held talks with the leaders of the two parties in Congress at the White House on September 29 to discuss a temporary appropriation bill to resolve the crisis [3]. - US President Trump announced a 10% tariff on imported softwood logs and timber, and a 25% tariff on imported cabinets, bathroom cabinets, and upholstered wood products. The new tariffs will take effect on October 14, and some tax rates will be further increased starting from January 1, next year [3]. Strategy Recommendation - After the holiday, the market is expected to quickly react to the variables that occur during the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.20 | 0.12 | 1.11 | 1.22 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.0669 | 4.7576 | 12.8556 | 21.687 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.5415 | - 3.8045 | - 3.1869 | - 6.7749 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.2156 | 9.9195 | 24.6757 | 35.1639 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 2.1993 | - 1.4682 | - 0.9846 | - 1.5617 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.52 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.35 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.05 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 2181.411 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (100 million yuan) | 1.9949 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic driving force for edible oils is insufficient, and future price movements depend on positive factors from the origin. In the short - term, the market will trade within a range. Pay attention to China - US and China - Canada relations, the de - stocking progress of palm oil origins, and the implementation of the B40 plan. Consider opportunities such as the positive spread trading of rapeseed oil 1 - 5 contracts and buying palm oil 01 contracts on dips [1]. - In the near - term, there is still pressure on domestic edible oils. The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and there is a risk of over - inventory for soybean oil. Rapeseed oil has high inventory, and palm oil supply may increase. The demand for edible oils is mainly for essential needs, but the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption [3][5]. - In the long - term, the edible oil market will focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation policy, the supply - demand balance of palm oil origins, the progress of Indonesia's B40 and B50 policies, and China - US and China - Canada relations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The US biodiesel policy is uncertain. In the palm oil market, Malaysia entered the production - reduction season in September, while Indonesia's production is normal. The B40 plan in Indonesia may speed up at the end of the year. For soybean oil, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast, and global soybean supply is abundant. The purchase of Argentine soybeans can make up for part of the US soybean gap, delaying the tight supply of domestic soybean oil. For rapeseed oil, Canada's new - season output is optimistic, but the supply may still be tight due to the uncertainty of China - Canada relations and limited substitution from Australian rapeseed [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range oscillation. The price ranges are P2601 [9000 - 9900], Y2601 [8000 - 8700], and OI [9600 - 10500]. Consider the opportunity of rebound after over - decline. Technically, consider going long on P2601 at low levels [13]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For calendar spread strategies, consider positive spread trading for P1 - 5 at low levels (190, 200). For hedging arbitrage strategies, expect the rapeseed - soybean spread to widen and the soybean - palm spread to narrow [13]. 3.1.3 Industry Client Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price ranges for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil are 8000 - 8400, 9700 - 10300, and 8900 - 9500 respectively [15]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high inventory can short Y2601 to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy Y2601 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about over - inventory can short Y2601 [15]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as spreads between different contracts and varieties [18][19][20][21]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 increased by 7.3% month - on - month. The operating rate of domestic rapeseed oil mills decreased for the second consecutive week. The operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills decreased during the holiday [22][23]. - **Negative Information**: On September 26, the commercial inventory of three major edible oils in China was 240 million tons, still at a high level in recent years. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Palm oil transactions improved slightly, soybean oil transactions decreased, and rapeseed oil had almost no transactions [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 29 domestic weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and progress on the US small - refinery exemption re - allocation decision [30]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: This week, the edible oil market oscillated and sorted. Rapeseed oil was relatively strong, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated. Some speculative funds left the market cautiously. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and the downward space is limited, expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of palm oil after over - decline [31]. - **Capital Trends**: Key profitable positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are cautious. Palm oil prices are at a medium - low level historically, with decreasing positions and a weak short - term trend. Soybean oil prices are declining with decreasing positions and increasing negative trend. Rapeseed oil prices are rising, with significant position fluctuations and cautious market sentiment [31]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The near - month term structure of edible oils is steeper. The OI1 - 5 positive spread continues to strengthen due to the expected tight supply of rapeseed oil at the end of this year and in the first quarter of next year. P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 positive spreads are mainly consolidating [33]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the basis of major edible oil contracts was weak. High domestic inventory and weak demand led to a continued weak basis [51]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads strengthened. Rapeseed oil supply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic, while the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil has eased [55]. - **Foreign Market**: The domestic market followed the foreign market to oscillate and then weaken. Uncertainties in China - US and China - Canada relations and the closure of Argentine exports limited further downward movement. CBOT soybean oil managed funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users increased their positions slightly [57]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread is slightly lower but still at a high level, and the BOHO spread is at a low level. The overall cost of bio - fuel production remains high due to the low - price competition of Argentine soybean oil [65]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. The import cost has slightly decreased, and the import profit inversion has narrowed slightly. However, due to weak domestic demand and inventory pressure, the probability of a significant increase in purchasing is low [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to drought in the first quarter and floods in September. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to decline [70]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: The procurement intention of traders is low. The monthly purchase volume in September and October is about 200,000 tons. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to decline further. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of soybeans in September and October is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, the soybean crushing volume may decrease in December, and the supply of soybean oil may be tight if US soybean purchases are difficult [72][73]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. High inventory will be gradually reduced in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not improve, supply may be tight from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of three major edible oils is large, and demand is weak. The Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays may boost catering consumption, but overall terminal demand is still weak compared to last year [75].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly oscillating strongly, with increased costs in each industrial chain link and firm bottom support. In Q4, the Indonesian nickel - ore policy is the biggest variable, and the new energy sector may continue to be strong. The cobalt price is expected to rise, supporting the MHP cobalt coefficient [1]. - For stainless steel in Q4, attention should be paid to the demand recovery trend. The continuous strength of ferronickel supports the bottom space, but the upward drive is insufficient. The end of Q4 usually sees a small uptick in demand. There is also a mild Fed rate - cut expectation [2]. - The expected core fluctuation range of Shanghai nickel in Q4 is [118,000 - 126,000] yuan/ton, with strong support at 115,000 yuan/ton. The core fluctuation range of stainless steel is [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Q3 Market Review - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly driven by multiple news stimuli. After the market reaction, the prices mostly returned to the oscillation range. High inventory and low demand constrained the upward movement, while the cost and production - cut expectations limited the downward space [6][7]. - From the beginning of Q3 to mid - July, the market was driven by macro and policy emotions. In August, sudden news from Indonesian parks and rumors about mine rights/quotas pushed the prices up briefly. In September, news stimuli and Fed rate - cut expectations affected the market, and the funds mainly took profit and reduced positions [6][7]. Group 4: Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In Q3, the nickel - ore market was relatively firm. In Indonesia, the mining pressure remained due to environmental reviews, and the supply was tight. In the Philippines, the production and shipment were at seasonal highs in Q3 but are expected to decline seasonally in Q4 [19]. - Policy disturbances in Indonesia may be the mainstream factor in Q4. New quota approvals are approaching, but supply release may be limited. The domestic trade ore price premium remains strong [19][20]. Ferronickel - In Q3, the ferronickel market gradually strengthened, with the price rising from 900 yuan/nickel point to 955 yuan/nickel point. The main reason was the increased acceptance of high - price ferronickel by stainless - steel mills [22]. - In Q4, the ferronickel market may be in a high - level oscillation, with limited upward drive. The supply may be affected by quota release and the rainy season, and the demand depends on the continuation of stainless - steel demand [22][24]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q3, the nickel - sulfate and intermediate market was mainly in a tight - balance state. The demand from downstream battery enterprises and the rising cobalt price supported the price [29]. - In Q4, the demand for nickel sulfate may continue due to the restocking needs of electric - vehicle and battery manufacturers. The price is expected to remain strong, and the new energy sector may support the nickel price [29]. Stainless Steel - In Q3, the stainless - steel market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the price mainly in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro and news stimuli, but the demand and inventory contradictions were not resolved [36]. - In Q4, the stainless - steel price depends on demand recovery, supply - side optimization, and policy implementation. The price is expected to be in the range of [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton, with fluctuations depending on production cuts and demand fulfillment [37][38]. Group 5: Q4 Balance Deduction - The profit game between upstream and downstream in the industrial chain is intense. The supply is relatively abundant, and the main variable lies in new - energy demand. The demand shows differentiation, with limited marginal increase in stainless steel and expected marginal increase in the new - energy sector [48]. - The supply - demand balance depends on the performance of stainless steel in October and the further development of the new - energy sector. The demand in October is optimistic, and the year - end demand depends on new - energy demand growth [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, supported by increased supply and high molten iron production for export, the fundamentals of iron ore are decent. The price is expected to show no strong trend and maintain a moderately bullish oscillating pattern. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. However, long - positions should pay attention to overseas risks [3][88] - The price range in Q4 is expected to be between 90 and 115 for Platts 62 and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][89] - Industrial risk management suggestion: interval trading [5][90] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 Iron Ore Price Review - From January 15 to February 21: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported the price increase. The black market followed the stock market, and both domestic and overseas macro - sentiments were positive. Hurricanes affected iron ore shipments, and the spot was in short supply [5] - From February 22 to April 8: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipments returned to normal, and the relationship between the stock market and the black market diverged. Tariffs and anti - dumping concerns, along with the expectation of crude steel reduction, pushed the price down [6] - From April 9 to June 18: After the risk release, there was a temporary balance. The iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand was stable. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but then the market entered a low - volatility state [7] - From June 19 to the present: The iron ore price bottomed out and then rose. The reasons were the promotion of anti - involution and the repair of pessimistic expectations under high molten iron production [8] 2. Supply - **Overall Supply in 2025**: The supply of iron ore in the first three quarters of 2025 was tight at first and then loosened. The global shipment volume in the first three quarters was about 1.133 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. It is expected that the shipment in Q4 will be relatively sufficient, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 1% [11] - **China's Supply**: From January to August, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. In August, the import was 10.5225 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [17] - **Shipment by Country**: Australia and Brazil are still the top two suppliers, but their shipment volumes declined. India's exports to China dropped significantly, while Russia's and Mongolia's exports increased [19][20] - **Four Major Mines**: In H1 2025, the four major mines generally overcame adverse factors, and their production remained stable or increased slightly. Vale and Rio Tinto are expected to be the main contributors to the incremental production in H2 [24] - **Domestic Mines**: From January to August, the iron concentrate output of 332 mines was 172.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. The annual output is expected to be lower than last year, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 2% [48] 3. Demand - **Demand Revision**: The view on demand in the semi - annual report needs to be revised. Currently, external demand is the dominant factor. Domestic demand in infrastructure and real estate remains weak, while exports, both direct and indirect, are becoming the leading force in black demand [51][52] - **Molten Iron Production**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the average daily molten iron production was 237210 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. It is expected that the production in Q4 may first remain stable and then decline [58] - **Steel Mill Supply Adjustment**: In the first three quarters, downstream steel mill demand was decent supported by exports. Building materials demand declined, while plate demand maintained positive growth. Steel mills adjusted their supply through production transfer [63][64] - **Export Support**: In the context of weak domestic demand, overseas exports are an important support for steel demand. Although the cost advantage is weakening, the export volume is expected to be supported in the second half of the year [68] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to hurricane disruptions and high molten iron production in the first three quarters, port inventory decreased. However, with the recovery of shipments and low steel mill profits, port inventory may start to accumulate again [73] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the proportion of trading ore is relatively high [75] - **Global Seaborne Inventory**: The global seaborne inventory of iron ore is high, and the shipping speed has returned to normal, which may accelerate the arrival of iron ore at ports [77] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of far - month contracts has significantly shrunk. In Q4, attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts for reverse arbitrage [79] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: Scrap steel has been less cost - effective compared to iron ore in the past year. The scrap addition ratio in blast furnaces has decreased [82] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore is more significant. If coking coal prices remain strong in Q4, it may continue to suppress iron ore prices [84] - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of iron ore options decreased in H1 2025 and then rebounded after the anti - involution trading in late June [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the pattern of stronger LME zinc and weaker SHFE zinc became more apparent. Macroscopically, domestic narratives such as anti - involution initially boosted non - ferrous metal prices, and the domestic economy had a weak recovery. Subsequently, the Fed's interest rate cut and strengthened subsequent rate - cut expectations drove up the metal sector. However, the price trends of LME zinc and SHFE zinc diverged significantly. Fundamentally, the center of LME zinc moved up while SHFE zinc was suppressed and continued to build a bottom. This was due to overseas smelter cut - offs and production reductions, while domestic smelter operating rates were strongly maintained driven by profits, leading to continuous depletion of overseas inventories. Additionally, the weakening of the internal - external price ratio and its trending phenomenon made it difficult to open the export window in China, resulting in an over - supply of refined zinc that was difficult to consume. It is predicted that SHFE zinc will still follow a bearish logic, but the downward amplitude will be limited due to the support of LME zinc, and it is expected to have a weak and volatile trend in the fourth quarter, with an operating range of 21,580 - 22,300 yuan/ton [1]. - The strategies include: from now until the end of October, if overseas inventories are not visibly increased and the rate - cut expectation remains unchanged, the internal - external positive arbitrage logic remains. When the export window opens or approaches, internal - external reverse arbitrage should be the main strategy. Also, conduct high - selling and low - buying within the range, and sell hedges or sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary - The pattern of stronger LME zinc and weaker SHFE zinc is obvious in the third quarter. The subsequent trend of SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly volatile, with a predicted operating range of 21,580 - 22,300 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [1]. - Investment strategies are proposed, including internal - external arbitrage operations and other trading strategies [2]. Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first half of the year, zinc prices were weak in January and then had a wide - range oscillation in the first quarter. The core contradiction in the first quarter was the initial manifestation of loose expectations and the weakening of actual demand. In January, the expected increase in zinc ore production and the winter stockpiling demand of zinc smelters jointly pushed up the zinc concentrate processing fee. From February to March, the reduction in smelter production around the Spring Festival led to a lower inventory - building amplitude than in previous years, and the absolute value of social inventory was at a historical low. Coupled with the "Golden Three, Silver Four" peak - season expectation, it provided some support for zinc prices. In the second quarter, the main market fluctuations of zinc ingots were caused by Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which impacted the trade situation and market sentiment. In early April, zinc prices followed the market decline due to the unexpectedly high tariff intensity and global pessimistic sentiment. Then, until the end of May, zinc prices returned to the fundamental logic, and the oscillation amplitude of SHFE zinc weakened from strong to weak, maintaining a supply - surplus logic of strong supply and weak demand [3]. - In the third quarter, the core trading logic was the game between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals, with an overall trend of rising first and then falling. Macroscopically, anti - involution sentiment provided some upward impetus to zinc, especially due to its common demand attributes with both black and non - ferrous metals, and the increase was more prominent. The Fed's interest rate - cut expectation and the weakening of the US dollar index also provided support. However, with the supply growth far exceeding the demand growth, the supply - surplus pattern of SHFE zinc's fundamentals was obvious. As a result, the trend of zinc prices was more entangled compared with other non - ferrous metals. At the end of the quarter, the Fed's interest rate cut met expectations, and the positive impact of the rate - cut story was exhausted, resulting in a weak and volatile trend [3]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Macro - Outlook: Optimistic - Globally, major economies led by the US have started an interest rate - cut cycle. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, following the Fed. According to the Fed's economic summary on September 17, most officials expect the interest rate to be in the range of 3.50 - 3.75 this year, indicating at least two more rate cuts, while some are more conservative with an expectation of 4.0 - 4.25. The median expectations of the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are lowered to 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively. The short - term rate - cut expectation has been digested by the market, and the subsequent continuous rate cuts will drive up the prices of basic metals [8]. - In terms of employment, the median expectations of the unemployment rate in the next two years are lowered to 4.4% and 4.3%. Fed Chairman Powell proposed that this rate cut is a risk - management measure to cope with the rapid downward revision of the labor market. The market generally expects a correlation between employment data and the benchmark interest rate [11]. - Domestically, the economy started a weak recovery from July's anti - involution to August. Policies have achieved good results in supporting the overall economy. In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year. In terms of prices, China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year from positive, and the core CPI increase rebounded to 0.9%; the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%. In the future, in addition to the main tones of industrial anti - involution and a unified large market, two major policies that will have a greater impact on basic metals this year are the moderately loose monetary policy mainly through reverse repurchase and the local debt and special debt policies to expand domestic demand. Domestic macro - factors are expected to have a positive impact on basic metals this year, and the extent depends on the policy scale [15][16]. - The overall macro - impact on future zinc prices has two interpretations centered around the US dollar index. The downward trend of the US dollar index is inevitable, driven by the Fed's monetary policy and Trump's tariff policy. The decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to commodities denominated in US dollars. However, if economic growth is suppressed by inflation and tariffs, leading to a weakening of demand and employment data, it will have a negative impact. Currently, according to the Samuelson's rule, the economy is not on the recession track, so in the short term, the overall outlook is positive, and long - term macro - data needs to be continuously monitored [18]. 3.2 Internal - External Price Difference: Opportunities for Export and Arbitrage - Since June this year, the price difference between LME zinc and SHFE zinc has been expanding, and it still shows an expanding trend in terms of import profit and loss. The main reason is the difference in internal and external fundamentals. Overseas smelters have low operating willingness due to the low processing - fee benchmark at the beginning of the year (80 US dollars/dry ton) and the impact of losses in 2024. In contrast, domestic smelters have cost advantages, and the increase in processing fees in the first half of the year strongly drove up their operating rates [20]. - It is recommended that investors pay attention to the internal - external reverse - arbitrage opportunity of going long on the domestic market and short on the overseas market. Currently, the export profit and loss is approaching the break - even line, and there is hope for zinc ingot exports to Southeast Asia to make a profit at the end of the year. After zinc ingot exports start, the internal - external price difference may return to a reasonable range [25]. 3.3 Change in Term Structure: Domestic Loose Expectations May Be Exhausted - The term structure of SHFE zinc quietly changed at the end of August. Under the dual influence of macro - narratives such as anti - involution and the oscillation of processing fees, SHFE zinc has changed from a B - structure to a C - structure [26]. - The inconsistent internal and external inventories are also the main factor for the expanding price difference. LME inventory has been in a de - stocking cycle since the beginning of the year, and the change in inventory reveals the weak supply of overseas smelters and the change in inventory structure. The continuous increase in the proportion of canceled warrants in LME warehouses means that more inventory is used for delivery or pick - up rather than storage [27]. - The market may be trading on the logic that the processing fee will decline, leading to losses in the smelting end and a tight supply of refined zinc in the long - term. The start of losses in the smelting end will lead to a decrease in the demand for the mining end, resulting in a tight supply of zinc elements as a whole [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Overseas Mine Production**: According to ILZSG statistics, from January to July 2025, the global zinc concentrate production was 7.1918 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.91%; among them, overseas zinc concentrate production was 4.8518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.91%. Overseas zinc mines have a stable production increase, with most of the increment coming from leading mining enterprises. Due to problems such as force majeure, grade decline, and low recovery rate in mines last year, the production increment this year is obvious, and there is a significant improvement in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. In terms of price, the CIF price of zinc concentrate is tied to LME zinc. Although the imported - ore TC is gradually rising, domestic mines still have a price advantage. In terms of cost, the C1 cost of overseas mines was about 1,950 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the year, and with the obvious upward trend of LME zinc, mines are generally profitable [33][35]. - **Domestic Mine Production**: According to SMM statistics, from January to July 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate production was 2.0679 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.76%. With the production increase of domestic mines in the second quarter, the mine output has increased, but it is still in a relatively tight situation compared with overseas. Affected by the high TC, domestic mine profits have shrunk. Coupled with the weak trend of SHFE zinc, it is difficult for the TC to maintain an upward trend in the future [37]. - **Imports**: Due to the significant recovery of overseas mine production this year, the supply - surplus situation in the mining end has been further transmitted to the import end. The imported zinc concentrate TC has been driven to rise, from a low of - 20 US dollars/dry ton at the beginning of the year to the latest 100 US dollars/dry ton. The processing profit of imported ore has gradually recovered, but the continuous weakening of the internal - external price ratio makes it difficult to increase the smelting end's willingness to purchase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.07% [41][42]. - **Overall Supply and Inventory**: Combining domestic production and imports, the total supply from January to August was 4.1662 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The increment mainly came from the recovery of overseas mine production and the production increase of domestic projects. In terms of inventory, the zinc - ore port inventory is likely to maintain a seasonal stable increase in the future, and the smelter's raw - material inventory days will remain stable. In the long - term, in the fourth quarter, due to the winter shutdown of some mines, the domestic mine supply will shrink to some extent, and the processing fee will maintain a weak and volatile trend, while the imported processing fee is likely to maintain an upward trend. After the internal - external price ratio strengthens, imports may make up for the supply shrinkage. Affected by the strong smelting end, there may be a slight shortage of zinc ore in 2026 [44]. 4.2 Zinc Ingot - **Overseas Inventory and Structure**: Most of the time this year, LME zinc was in a contango structure because of the large number of overseas smelter cut - offs and production reductions, indicating an expected supply shrinkage and a stronger long - term price. In late March, due to the unexpectedly high Trump tariffs, the long - term pessimistic sentiment was short - lived. By June, LME zinc started continuous de - stocking, the inter - month price difference narrowed, and the spot price gradually strengthened due to the decrease in the number of deliverable warrants, forming the current deep - back structure. Although the current inventory has not reached the extreme value, its impact on prices, resonating with the interest rate - cut expectation, forms an upward driving force [50]. - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Production**: According to SMM data, from January to July 2024, the domestic refined - zinc production was about 3.8425 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.65%. The supply - surplus situation in the mining end has been continuously transmitted to the ingot end. The upward trend of TC and the stable by - product revenue have repaired the smelter's profit, driving up the operating rate and putting pressure on the supply end, which suppresses zinc prices [52]. - **Import and Export**: From January to May 2025, China's net import of refined zinc was about 154,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.08%, mostly from countries along the Belt and Road. Affected by the internal - external price ratio, the import window has been closed for a long time this year. In terms of exports, the import profit and loss still shows a weakening trend. Recently, the export profit and loss of Southeast Asian spot zinc is approaching the break - even line, and there is hope for the export window to open in 2025. According to past data, large - scale exports require the import profit and loss to be below - 4,800 yuan/ton. Currently, the internal - external arbitrage is still in a positive - arbitrage trend [55]. 4.3 Demand - **Domestic Demand** - **Real Estate**: This year, the real - estate industry in China is characterized by a decline in development investment, a decrease in sales area and sales volume, and poor capital availability. In the future, although macro - policies will provide some support, the weak self - demand will still lead to a weak trend. Real - estate policies mainly focus on the structural adjustment of the supply end and the loosening of the demand end. The supply end includes the revitalization of existing stocks, the acquisition of existing houses with special bonds and their transformation into affordable housing to accelerate commodity de - stocking, and strict control of new land use. The demand end includes lowering the first - home mortgage rate and provident - fund rate and relaxing purchase restrictions. Overall, this year's real - estate policies aim to maintain stability and transformation, and the overall basic situation is expected to be maintained, with the decline difficult to deepen further. However, considering the poor overall economic environment, real - estate developers' willingness to acquire land is low, and the area from land acquisition to new construction and completion of houses will continue to decline [61]. - **Automobile**: According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to August 2025, the cumulative automobile production reached 21.051 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7%; the sales volume was 21.128 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, for the first time achieving a production and sales volume of over 20 million vehicles in the first eight months. The cumulative production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 9.625 million/9.62 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 37.3%/36.7%, with a penetration rate of 45.5%. From January to August, the export volume was 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%, and the single - month export volume in August was 611,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%. The export volume of new - energy vehicles from January to August was 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3%, accounting for 35.7% of the total automobile export volume, and the single - month export volume in August was 224,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 100%. Looking forward to 2026, according to the "Automobile Industry Stable - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", the sales volume of new - energy vehicles is expected to reach 18 - 20 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of the total automobile sales volume, becoming the absolute market leader. The total automobile export volume will exceed 5 million vehicles in 2026, and the proportion of new - energy vehicle exports will exceed 60%. With continuous policy subsidies to promote consumption, the stable growth of the automobile industry will stably drive the demand for zinc, maintaining an annual zinc consumption of 700,000 - 900,000 tons [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In 2026, the white - goods industry is expected to remain stable. In the export market, the double risks of the US's additional tariffs on Chinese home - appliance products and emerging markets have an impact on home - appliance production. Since March

Report Overview - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 30, 2025 - Author: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened lower, fluctuated upwards, and then significantly declined near the close. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. Near the National Day holiday, some investors gradually closed their positions. The futures price is influenced by both long and short factors, and in the short term, it is likely to continue to fluctuate. For the 12 - contract, low - long opportunities can be continuously monitored, and overall, it is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct intraday short - term operations [3] Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if the position has been acquired but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. Recommend selling the EC2510 contract at an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [2] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation (short spot exposure), to prevent the increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. Recommend buying the EC2510 contract at an entry range of 950 - 1050 [2] Core Contradictions - The EC2510 contract saw a reduction of 2161 long positions to 14922, a reduction of 2106 short positions to 15712, and a decrease in trading volume of 2414 to 17476 (bilateral) [3] - Bullish factor: MSC announced a price increase notice from the Far East to the Nordic route from October 15th to 31st, which has a certain positive impact on the market [3] - Bearish factors: The actual implementation of price increase notices this year has been infrequent, market expectations are relatively weak, MSC lowered the European Line quotes for mid - to - late October, and the new SCFIS European Line is lower than market expectations, pulling down the futures price valuation [3] Bullish Interpretations - MSC announced a price increase notice for mid - to - late October, with sea freight rates of $1320/TEU and $2200/FEU from the Far East to the Nordic region [4] - The Israeli military continues to attack the Gaza Strip, causing dozens of deaths in one day, and Hamas said it has not received any proposals from Trump or mediators [4] Bearish Interpretations - US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are scheduled to meet at the White House on the 29th. Trump said on the 28th that he hopes the two sides can finalize a Gaza peace plan, and Netanyahu said that the US and Israel are jointly formulating a new cease - fire plan, with details still under discussion [5] - MSC's European Line quotes declined in early to mid - October [5] EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 30, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 9.89 points, with a daily increase of 4.40 points and a weekly decrease of 145.03 points [6] - The basis of EC2512 was - 611.41 points, with a daily increase of 24.40 points and a weekly decrease of 242.93 points [6] - The basis of EC2602 was - 522.31 points, with a daily increase of 24.20 points and a weekly decrease of 241.63 points [6] EC Price and Spread - On September 30, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1110.6 points, with a daily decline of 0.39% and a weekly increase of 0.96% [7] - The closing price of EC2512 was 1731.9 points, with a daily decline of 1.39% and a weekly increase of 6.68% [7] - The closing price of EC2602 was 1642.8 points, with a daily decline of 1.45% and a weekly increase of 6.98% [7] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - For Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam on October 15th, the total quote for 20GP was $1144, a recovery of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1911, a recovery of $11 [9] - For Maersk's sailings on October 16th, the total quote for 20GP was $1090, a recovery of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1820, a recovery of $10 [9] - For MSC's sailings in the past two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $855, a decrease of $60, and the total quote for 40GP was $1415, a decrease of $100. For mid - to - late October, the total quote for 20GP was $1245, a recovery of $330, and the total quote for 40GP was $2065, a recovery of $550 [9] - For Evergreen's sailings in mid - to - late October, the total quote for 20GP was $1355, a recovery of $300, and the total quote for 40GP was $2060, a recovery of $450 [9] Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 1120.49 points, a decrease of 134.43 points (- 10.71%) from the previous value [10] - The latest value of SCFIS for the US West route was 921.25 points, a decrease of 272.39 points (- 22.82%) from the previous value [10] - The latest value of SCFI for the European route was $971/TEU, a decrease of $81 (- 7.70%) from the previous value [10] Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 29, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 2.020 days, an increase of 0.450 days from the previous day, and 0.362 days in the same period last year [17] - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.135 days, an increase of 0.252 days from the previous day, and 2.284 days in the same period last year [17] - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 3.218 days, an increase of 0.955 days from the previous day, and 0.447 days in the same period last year [17] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 29, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.547 knots, an increase of 0.008 knots from the previous day, and 15.544 knots in the same period last year [25] - The average speed of 3000 + container ships was 14.741 knots, a decrease of 0.088 knots from the previous day, and 14.924 knots in the same period last year [25] - The average speed of 1000 + container ships was 13.291 knots, an increase of 0.068 knots from the previous day, and 13.437 knots in the same period last year [25] - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 20, an increase of 1 from the previous day, and 7 in the same period last year [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proposition of demand overdraft due to pre - export has gradually materialized, and the off - peak season for polyester in the peak season is basically a foregone conclusion. The polyester segment currently faces little short - term pressure, with a marginal improvement in terminal demand. There is an expected seasonal uptick in October, but the sustainability and height of the demand are pessimistic. Starting from November, the production is expected to decline seasonally. With weak demand, polyester raw materials are entering an inventory accumulation phase, lacking upward drivers in the supply - demand balance [1]. - For MEG, the main theme in the fourth quarter is the contradiction between strong current reality and weak future expectations. Near - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, with port inventories at historical lows and a short - term tight liquidity situation. However, the actual tightness is less severe than indicated by low visible inventories, and the impact on absolute prices is limited. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation has a greater impact on valuation. With the new device coming into operation, the supply load pressure increases, leading to inventory accumulation starting from November. Excess supply is difficult to digest, and MEG will remain in a short - position until its valuation is further compressed [1][17]. - For PX - PTA, prices have rebounded recently due to the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The polyester load's peak depends on the performance of bottle - chip production. In the fourth quarter, many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If they are implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA will be alleviated before December, and PTA processing fees may be repaired. But the overall excess situation of PTA restricts the repair of processing fees [2][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and a weakening supply - demand pattern. In January, prices fluctuated at a high level due to low inventories. In February, prices rebounded slightly and then fell. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [3]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices plummeted due to trade disputes, then rebounded and fluctuated. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [4]. - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" sentiment influenced prices. In July, prices reached a high and then fell. In August, prices rose and then fell again. In September, prices were under pressure due to the expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, PTA prices mainly followed the cost trend, fluctuating in the range of 4700 - 5350. In January, prices reached a high and then fell. In February, prices fluctuated downward. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [9]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices dropped to a low due to trade disputes, then rebounded. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [10]. - In the third quarter, PTA prices fluctuated widely in the range of 4500 - 5000. In July, prices were affected by cost and macro factors. In August, prices first fell and then rose. In September, prices were under pressure and then recovered slightly [10][11]. 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - The significance of MEG's historical low visible inventories is diminishing. Port inventories are expected to remain below 600,000 tons before the end of October, with tight short - term liquidity. Domestic production has reached a high level, and supply elasticity is limited. With the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment and coal production inspections, there is limited downward momentum [18]. - The expectation of inventory accumulation continues to suppress MEG's valuation. The early commissioning of Yulong and the planned commissioning of Ningxia Changyi will lead to inventory accumulation, with an expected monthly inventory increase of over 150,000 tons starting from November. If the inventory accumulation expectation is realized, the current production profit may not be maintained, and the EG01 contract may end below 4100 [19]. 3.2.2 PTA - The near - term trading logic of PTA is that the peak season for polyester is not strong. The start - up of filament and staple fiber has reached a high level, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. With the improvement of weaving orders and the reduction of polyester yarn inventory, demand will remain high in October and weaken seasonally in November. The "anti - involution" sentiment has stabilized the commodity mood, and there is limited downward momentum [29]. - The long - term trading expectation of PTA is that PX is in excess relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro sentiment. Many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA can be alleviated, and PTA processing fees may be repaired, but the long - term excess situation restricts the repair height. The 01 contract's processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 250 - 400 in the fourth quarter. The "anti - involution" sentiment will repeatedly affect the market, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee and the 15th Five - Year Plan [31]. 3.3 MEG Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - MEG's domestic production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - capacity. Since 2024, the large - scale commissioning period has ended, and the industry is gradually moving towards valuation repair. Currently, ethylene - based production accounts for 62% of the total capacity, and coal - based production accounts for 38%. In 2025, the supply logic has changed, with increased production and reduced supply elasticity [37][38]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - Domestic supply: From January to August 2025, the actual domestic production of MEG was 13.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The average load from January to August was 69.2%, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Coal - based production has achieved profitability, but with the expectation of inventory accumulation, the valuation is under pressure, and there is still room for price compression [41]. - Import supply: In 2025, the monthly import volume of MEG has increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The import source is becoming more concentrated, mainly from the Middle East and North America. If India's anti - dumping tax policy is implemented, it may change the global logistics pattern [51][53]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In the fourth quarter, MEG is entering an inventory accumulation phase. Production is expected to remain high, while demand is not expected to be strong. There will be a small inventory accumulation in October and a significant surplus starting from November, which will suppress the valuation. The 01 contract may end below 4100 [60]. 3.4 PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - Domestic PX production capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, and the commissioning has paused since 2024. PTA production capacity has continued to grow at a high speed. In 2025, new PTA capacity is expected to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The industrial pattern has changed, with PX supply being relatively tight and PTA supply being in excess [64][68]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA processing fees have been under pressure. In the first quarter, the average processing fee was 218 yuan/ton, lower than the same period in 2024. In the second quarter, processing fees were repaired due to maintenance and increased demand. In the third quarter, processing fees were under pressure again due to increased supply. In the fourth quarter, if maintenance plans are implemented, the structural contradiction can be alleviated, but the repair of processing fees is limited [70][71]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, PTA exports totaled 2.53 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The decline is mainly due to the new overseas PTA plant in Turkey. The export volume to Turkey has decreased significantly, and part of the export volume has shifted to other countries [74]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - The peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong. In October, there may be a small supply - demand gap if maintenance plans are implemented. Starting from November, demand is expected to decline seasonally, and PTA prices are expected to be weak. Processing fees are expected to remain under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [84]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - The peak season for polyester is not strong. Although there is a marginal improvement in downstream demand, high坯布 inventories suppress terminal purchasing. Filament and staple fiber start - up rates are already high, with limited room for further increase. Bottle - chip production load has been low, and attention should be paid to potential load - increasing plans. In the fourth quarter, demand is expected to improve in October but weaken seasonally starting from November, with average loads of 91.5%, 90%, and 89% from October to December [87]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In terms of domestic consumption, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.6%. Textile and clothing consumption grew at a low speed, with clothing retail sales increasing by 2.2% and textile and clothing products increasing by 2.9% year - on - year [103]. - In terms of exports, in the first three quarters of 2025, textile and clothing exports showed low - speed growth. Affected by trade disputes and macro - policies, export growth has been under pressure. In the first quarter, exports increased significantly, but after April, exports weakened due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ferroalloy price in the third quarter was mainly affected by the coking coal price showing a volatile trend after a rapid increase. In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy futures are expected to be volatile, with the price at the stage when the "anti - involution" was proposed at the beginning of July regarded as the policy bottom and the high price at the end of July as the resistance level. The downstream products like rebar are the core variables affecting the ferroalloy price, and coking coal affects its cost. Ferroalloy mainly follows their prices but with lower elasticity. Policy expectations will dominate the rhythm, the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations. If the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, the supply - demand pressure will rise and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations [1][4]. - The price range of the Si - Fe 2601 contract is predicted to be between 5300 - 6400, and that of the Si - Mn 2601 contract between 5500 - 6500. The supply - demand of ferroalloy is relatively loose but easily affected by the anti - involution policy. Buying when the price reaches the level at the beginning of July has a high cost - performance ratio and safety margin, i.e., around 5300 for the Si - Fe 2601 contract and around 5500 for the Si - Mn 2601 contract [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the ferroalloy price was mainly affected by the coking coal price. In July, driven by macro - sentiment and the "anti - involution" policy expectation, coking coal rose rapidly, leading the rise of the entire black sector, and ferroalloy followed the price increase of coking coal and rebar. In August, due to the exchange's policy of restricting positions and raising handling fees for coking coal futures and the increase in production stimulated by the profit recovery of ferroalloy in July while the downstream demand was less than expected, the increase of ferroalloy gradually declined with a larger decline than the finished products. In September, supported by the steel mills' restocking of coke, ferroalloy rebounded slightly due to cost support (the increase in the prices of semi - coke and manganese ore), but the downstream consumption remained weak, and ferroalloy showed a narrow - range volatile trend [2]. - In 2025, the price of Si - Fe futures had a strong negative correlation with its total position. In most cases, the increase in price was accompanied by a decrease in position, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of hedging funds. The price of Si - Mn futures had a strong positive correlation and a characteristic of periodic divergence with its total position, i.e., in most cases, the increase in position was accompanied by a price rebound, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of speculative funds [2]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Anti - Involution Policy Expectation - In the third quarter, the main factors affecting the ferroalloy price were the anti - involution policy expectation and market sentiment. The anti - involution started in July, but it mainly affected the photovoltaic sector at first. After July 18, relevant policies gradually began to affect the black sector, especially coking coal, which had multiple daily limit up. Ferroalloy also rose rapidly under the drive of coking coal but with a smaller increase. On July 25, after the news that large manganese - based ferroalloy producers reached a consensus on a 30% reduction in ferromanganese and a 40% reduction in Si - Mn production was spread, ferroalloy hit the daily limit and reached the peak of this round of market [15]. - In the fourth quarter, the price fluctuation of ferroalloy futures will be dominated by policy expectations in terms of rhythm, and the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space. Policies mainly affect the market by changing industry expectations, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations [15]. 3.2.2 Downstream Steel Mill Demand Rhythm Realization - In the first three quarters of this year, the hot metal production has been maintained at a high level, with only a short - term decline in late September due to the military parade and then returning to normal. The high - level hot metal production is mainly due to the strong export demand in the first half of the year. From January to August 2025, the net export of steel products was 73.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.29%, and the net export of billets was 8.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 975%. Another reason is the high profit of steel mills, which is supported by strong exports and the price reduction of coking coal and iron ore in the first half of the year. However, since the third quarter, the cost has rebounded, and the profit of steel mills has gradually declined, which poses a challenge to maintaining high - level hot metal production [16]. - In the fourth quarter, the "Golden September and Silver October" is the peak demand season in China, but the demand for the five major steel products has been weak, with the apparent consumption remaining at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years and the production also at a low level. Since August, the production of the five major steel products has been significantly higher than that of last year, but the apparent consumption has not increased synchronously and is still lower than that of last year, resulting in inventory accumulation instead of the seasonal inventory reduction in the peak season [16]. - In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to pay attention to the realization of the downstream steel mill demand rhythm. If the construction rush in the fourth quarter fails to meet expectations, the inventory accumulation of steel mills will suppress the price rebound space, and the off - season may come earlier. If the winter storage is postponed, the situation of "no peak season in the peak season and no off - season in the off - season" may occur, leading to a price rhythm contrary to expectations [17]. 3.2.3 Effectiveness of Cost Support - Since July, the raw material prices of the ferroalloy cost side have changed. The electricity price has been relatively stable, but the price of semi - coke has risen, increasing the production cost of Si - Fe by about 300 yuan/ton from the bottom and providing some support for the Si - Fe price. For Si - Mn, supported by the high operating rate of downstream factories, the manganese ore price has risen slightly, and the chemical coke price has also increased under the drive of coking coal, moving the cost center of Si - Mn upward and providing some support for the Si - Mn price [24]. - In the long run, the production area of Si - Mn is concentrating in the northern regions with low electricity prices, new production capacity is constantly being released, and affected by factors such as the decline of the real estate market, the effectiveness of the cost support for Si - Mn may gradually weaken. The cost support of Si - Mn is affected not only by its own over - capacity but also by manganese ore, and its price elasticity basically depends on event - driven factors. In the short term, the supply pattern of manganese ore is relatively loose, the manganese ore price maintains a low - level volatile trend, and the market pricing may be anchored to the Inner Mongolia production area with the lowest cost [25]. - In the short term, before the National Day, the cost support of ferroalloy is relatively strong due to the release of raw material restocking demand. But in the medium - to - long term, if the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations, the supply - demand pressure will rise, and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged [25]. 3.2.4 Short - Term Disturbance at the Manganese Ore Shipping End - From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of manganese ore was 20.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.59%, and the cumulative shipping volume was 25.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.91%. The main reason is that the Australian manganese ore has gradually resumed production this year after the shutdown last year, and the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient with the price maintaining a low - level volatile trend. The spread between semi - coke and manganese ore has gradually widened, and the cost - performance ratio of going long on the spread between the two types of ferroalloys is relatively high [29]. - Although the supply of manganese ore is sufficient, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term disturbances. There are rumors that the shipping volume of Gabonese manganese ore will decrease in October, but it has not been confirmed. Currently, the inventory of manganese ore at ports is low, and the market is likely to hype if there are disturbances at the shipping end [29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 Ferroalloy Valuation - Currently, the valuation of ferroalloy is relatively neutral and on the low side. In the short term, it is supported by the downstream restocking demand, but in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure after the demand declines. The profit of ferroalloy has been continuously declining. The production of Si - Fe remains at a high level, and there is not much motivation for Si - Fe enterprises to increase production. The production of Si - Mn enterprises has begun to decline as the southern production areas enter the dry season. If the downstream demand fails to meet expectations and the inventory pressure increases, it will put pressure on the ferroalloy price, and the enterprise inventory and warehouse receipt inventory are not low at present [45]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloy Supply - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of Si - Mn was 6.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the cumulative production of Si - Fe was 3.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in production due to the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the continuous decline of the alloy production profit does not support the further increase of ferroalloy production. Instead, the possibility of producers reducing production is increasing. With the arrival of the normal water season, the production in the southern Si - Mn production areas may also decline. Especially, the production profit of Si - Fe has declined significantly, and there is a greater motivation to reduce production, with the production expected to decline slightly. The production profit of Si - Mn is relatively stable, and the production is expected to remain stable or decline following the Si - Fe production but with a smaller decline. It is expected that the ferroalloy production in the fourth quarter will decline slightly compared with the third quarter [50]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloy Demand - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, the cumulative production of the five major steel products was 295.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, and the cumulative production of rebar was 73.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in demand due to the peak season, but currently, the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils are declining, mainly because the inventory of the five major steel products is accumulating, while in previous years, the inventory should have decreased in the peak season. The inventory - to - sales ratio of the five major steel products has also increased seasonally, and the current warehouse receipt inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the increase in demand for upstream ferroalloy [55]. - The hot metal production remains at a high - level volatile state, but the profitability of steel enterprises shows a downward trend, and it is difficult to maintain a high - level hot metal production for a long time, so the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. In terms of non - steel - making demand, the decline of the Si - Fe export profit is expected to affect the Si - Fe export volume. In general, it is difficult for the ferroalloy demand to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is expected to remain weak [55]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloy Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of Si - Fe and Si - Mn from January 2024 to December 2025 are provided, including production, import, export, apparent consumption, inventory, and supply - demand difference, showing the changes in the supply - demand situation of ferroalloy over time [70].