反内卷政策下氧化铝行情如何看待 2025-07-25 14:04:41 反内卷政策下氧化铝行情如何看待 2025/07/24 揭婷（投资咨询证号：Z0022453） 中国氧化铝月度产量季节性 source： SMM,南华研究 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 400 500 600 700 800 氧化铝全国周度开工率 source： SMM,南华研究 % 氧化铝周度开工率：全国 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 我们认为此次反内卷对铝产业供应端采取的措施或将类似3月发布的《铝产业高质量发展实施方案 （2025—2027年）》主要侧重于对未来新建项目的审批上。《实施方案》中涉及氧化铝的措施主要是"慎建设 氧化铝项目。新改扩建氧化铝项目能效须达到强制性能耗限额标准先进值和环保绩效A级水平，不再新建或扩 建以一水硬铝石为原料的氧化铝生产线，原则上新扩建氧化铝项目（包括使用铝土矿生产氢氧化铝的项目） 需有与产能相匹配的权益铝土矿产量，具有一定的赤泥综合利用能力。" 结 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Financial Futures - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable and move forward (weaker) this week. The Fed's independence is under "stress test", and the overall weak trend is expected to continue. The PBOC will likely adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + contingency", and the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling below 7 is increasing [2] - The stock index is expected to continue to be strong as market sentiment remains optimistic. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes are relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets remains at a high level. The news is dull, and the long - position is recommended to hold and wait [3] - The freight rate of container shipping (European line) futures may continue to be volatile. The prices of mainstream shipping companies in August are still higher than those in July, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost trade, but the near - month contracts may fall again [5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are under pressure in the short term as equity assets perform well. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure. The callback buying strategy is recommended [6][8] Copper - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term. The rise of the non - ferrous metal sector is due to demand rather than supply, but there are hidden risks in the medium - term rise [10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Macro - level factors boost sentiment, and low inventory supports prices [12] - Alumina may fluctuate in the short term. The current supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight, and it may fall sharply when there is negative news [13][14] - Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for arbitrage [14] Zinc - Zinc is expected to fluctuate widely and may fall in the long term. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak [16] Tin - Tin has strengthened slightly, and there are opportunities to sell on rallies. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and the upward pressure on prices is greater than the support [18] Carbonate Lithium - The futures market of carbonate lithium is active, but risks should be noted. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures are volatile, and investors should pay attention to position risks. The market sentiment is strong, but there are risks on both the supply and demand sides [20][21] Lead - Lead is expected to fluctuate before the demand improves. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to continue to rise. The "anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum. The "anti - involution" policy has little impact on the supply side, and the current valuation is high [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. In the long term, the price increase may affect the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase. The demand in the peak season provides support, but the support is weakening. Next week's macro - level meetings may bring new guidance [36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is expected to be strong in the short term. The current fundamental driving force is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The follow - up should focus on the Politburo meeting [39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG is expected to be strong. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [42] Methanol - It is recommended to wait and see for methanol. The market is affected by macro - level factors, and the inventory is accumulating in the off - season. The focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [44] PP - PP is driven up by macro - level sentiment but faces resistance. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up should focus on the demand recovery and policy progress [46] PE - PE is driven up by macro - level factors, and the spot is weak. The current inventory is accumulating, but the supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season [48] PVC - PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks when the production limit is unclear [50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment before the end - of - month meeting [51] Styrene - Styrene is affected by macro - level disturbances. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and focus on the end - of - month meetings [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is boosted by crude oil. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt fluctuates with the cost. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment in the short term [55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash and glass remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact on soda ash, and the supply is stable, but the demand is weak. Glass is in a weak balance, and the inventory is still high [56][58] Log - Logs are expected to have low - volatility shocks. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high [59] Pulp - Pulp is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda rises with the market. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market [63] Oilseeds - It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts of oilseeds at low prices. The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation of India and other countries [64][65] Corn and Starch - Corn and starch are expected to fluctuate. There is no obvious positive news, and the growth of new - crop corn should be monitored [66] Cotton - Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term. The low inventory supports the price, but the terminal demand is weak in the off - season. The follow - up should focus on the import quota policy and inventory reduction [68] Sugar - Sugar maintains an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. The international sugar price rises due to improved demand, and the domestic sugar price is stronger than the external market [69] Eggs - Eggs are recommended to be in an anti - spread position. The long - term egg production capacity is loose, and the short - term price is strong [71] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB/USD closed at 7.1547, up 63 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1385, up 29 basis points. The Fed's independence is under test, and the PBOC will balance exchange - rate flexibility and risk prevention [1][2] Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index rose collectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes reached new highs this year. The news is dull, and the market sentiment is optimistic, so it is expected to be strong [3] Container Shipping - The prices of container shipping (European line) futures fluctuated widely yesterday. The spot price of some shipping companies increased in August, and the reduction of US - EU tariffs is expected to boost the market [3][5] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell on Thursday. The Fed's "renovation gate" and the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision affected the market. The long - term trend may be bullish, but there is short - term adjustment pressure [6] Copper - The Shanghai copper index fluctuated at a high level on Thursday. The development of emerging industries and the "anti - involution" policy may affect demand. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may fall in the medium term [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices fluctuated on Thursday. The "anti - involution" policy has limited impact on the fundamentals but boosts sentiment. The inventory is low, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12] - Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply is in surplus, but the spot is tight. The price may be affected by macro - level sentiment and inventory [13][14] - The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost is supported, but the demand is in the off - season, and there are arbitrage opportunities [14] Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rallies [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel rose slightly on Thursday. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The follow - up should focus on the support of nickel - iron [16] Tin - The Shanghai tin index rose slightly on Thursday. The fundamentals are stable. The supply of Burmese ore is about to increase, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [18] Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures limit - up on Thursday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is stable, and the cost is supported. The market is active, but risks should be noted [19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures rose on Thursday, and the polysilicon futures fluctuated at a high level. The spot price of industrial silicon is strong, and the polysilicon price is stable. The market sentiment is strong, but risks should be noted [20][21] Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed slightly higher on Thursday. The supply is tight, and the demand is approaching the peak season, but the spot trading is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to fluctuate [22] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a strong - shock state. The "anti - involution" policy boosts sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction of steel has not accumulated, and the profit of steel mills is good [24] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy. The supply side has little impact, and the current valuation is high. It is expected to be strong but with limited upward momentum [26][27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" policy in the coal industry drives the price increase, and the inventory of the upstream decreases. The short - term is easy to rise, and the long - term should consider the downstream [29][30] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term. The profit of ferroalloys is repaired, and the demand from steel mills is supported, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [31][32] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US government may authorize Venezuelan oil partners, and the demand in the peak season provides support. It is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase [34][36] PTA - PX - PX - PTA prices rose slightly. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA supply is stable. The demand for polyester is weak, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term [37][38][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - MEG prices are volatile. The supply side has many unexpected situations, and the demand is weak. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [40][42] Methanol - Methanol prices are affected by macro - level factors. The inventory is accumulating in the off - season, and the focus is on whether the coastal MTO will shut down for maintenance [43][44] PP - PP prices rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The macro - level sentiment drives the price up, but there is resistance [45][46] PE - PE prices rose. The supply increment is limited, and the demand is expected to recover in the peak season. The current inventory is accumulating, and the spot is weak [47][48] PVC - PVC prices rose sharply. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price up, and the current data is poor, but the "anti - involution" value is high [49][50] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices rose. The supply side fluctuates slightly, the demand side improves, and the inventory increases. The market is affected by the macro - level sentiment [51] Styrene - Styrene prices rose. The supply side decreases slightly, the demand side is weak, and the inventory increases. The short - term is affected by macro - level disturbances [52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose. The supply is tight, the demand is improving, and there are opportunities for the FU09 - 01 spread [53][54] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices rose. The supply is low, the demand is slightly improved, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated. The supply - demand is stable, the inventory is being reduced, and the demand is expected to improve in the peak season. The short - term is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment [54][55] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose. The "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, the supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high [56][57] - Glass prices rose. The supply is stable, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is high. The short - term is strong, and the follow - up should focus on the policy and inventory [58] Log - Log prices fell slightly. The fundamentals change little, the funds are reducing positions, and the valuation is slightly high. It is expected to have low - volatility shocks [59] Pulp - Pulp prices rose. The spot price is stable, and the futures price is mainly driven by the macro - level. After breaking through and retesting, it can be cautiously chased to go long [60] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices rose. The short - term contradiction is limited, and the supply pressure may increase in the long term. The market is affected by the old - device issue [62] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak in the short term, but there is pressure - holding sentiment in the market. It is recommended to be short on rallies [63] Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is volatile, and the internal market is affected by the policy. The supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, and the demand for rapeseed meal is affected by the situation

周四贵金属市场延续调整回落，美指收涨，10Y美债收益率亦回升则利空贵金属估值。周边欧美股市涨跌不 一，中国股市走强，比特币震荡，原油上涨，南华有色金属指数亦偏强，国内股市近期偏强走势已导致本周 国内黄金ETF流出和短期重新配置。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3371.3美元/盎司，-0.77%；美白银 2509合约收报于39.285美元/盎司，-0.55%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.74元/克，-1.6%；SHFE白银 2510合约收9386元/千克，-0.83%。消息面，美联储"装修门"升级，特朗普首次"上门"施压降息，但解 雇鲍威尔警报暂停，贝森特指有其他风险。欧洲央行周四如期维持主要利率在2%不变，以等待欧盟与美国贸 易关系走向的更多明确信号，市场仍押注今年稍晚还有至少一次降息。会后拉加德表示央行处于"观望模 式"，市场明显下调9月降息预期。关税贸易战方面，墨西哥总统辛鲍姆表示，墨西哥努力避免8月美国关税 提高。墨西哥向美国提出了减少贸易逆差的计划。如有必要，将与特朗普进行交谈。数据方面，美国7月标普 全球制造业PMI初值 49.5，预期52.7，前值52.9；美国7月标普全球服务业PM ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].

纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/7/24 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5800-6400 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 EB2509 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | 卖出 | 25% | 7450-750 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, with the de - stocking process progressing slowly, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance remaining unmitigated. There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price decline - further lithium salt price drop" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase". The cost curve is flattening due to technological upgrades, driving the central price of lithium carbonate down. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will decline in the fourth quarter as technological upgrades are completed and production is concentratedly released. - There are multiple factors affecting the price of lithium carbonate. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the market trading the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future production expectations of lithium mines, continuous inventory accumulation, and delayed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Changes**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and the LC2511 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 69,380 yuan/ton to 76,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.52% and a weekly increase of 12.83%. The trading volume of the LC2511 contract increased from 241,623 lots to 313,782 lots, a daily increase of 29.86% and a weekly increase of 235.73% [8]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Changes**: The month - to - month spreads of LC08 - 11, LC09 - 11, and LC11 - 12 all changed. For example, the LC09 - 11 spread increased from 760 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 121% and a weekly increase of 115% [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily quotes of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the average price of lithium mica with Li₂O:2 - 2.5% increased by 50 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.12%, and a weekly increase of 12.97% [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Quotes**: The average daily quotes of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide also changed. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 63,350 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 8.76% [17]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, and between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in Japan and South Korea and the domestic price all changed. For example, the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% and a weekly increase of 3.13% [20]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The average daily quotes of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also changed. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased from 32,665 yuan/ton to 32,690 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.08% [22]. 3. Basis and Warrant Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, remained stable. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy's battery - grade lithium carbonate for the LC2507 contract was 100 yuan/ton with a daily change of 0% [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warrant Quantity**: The total number of lithium carbonate warrants increased from 10,754 lots to 11,654 lots, an increase of 900 lots. Some warehouses saw changes in warrant quantities, such as a 300 - lot increase in Suining Tiancheng and a 20 - lot decrease in Wugang Wuxi [29]. 4. Cost and Profit - There are graphs showing the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [31].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月24日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 41.9% | -0.09% | 96.6% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 48.75% | 2.83% | 85.61% | 1.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 1."反内卷"政策释放积极信号，显著提振宏观市场情绪； 2. 成本端短期进一步下行的空间有限，且当前利润估值处于偏低水平，供给端出现停产的概率有所上升； 3. 需求端表现超市场预期，有效带动采购积极性的提升。 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to decline slightly, maintaining a narrow sideways range with a slightly lower fluctuation center. During the overnight US trading session, crude oil rebounded from its intraday low, mainly influenced by a report from a British media outlet that the US and Europe are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement. Driven by this news, US stocks and crude oil strengthened simultaneously. While US stocks reached new highs, crude oil also gradually recovered its intraday losses. In the recent adjustment process, long positions in overseas crude oil have significantly decreased, and market bullish sentiment has continued to cool. Over the past two weeks, crude oil has shown characteristics of declining on increased volume. Although the overall trading volume remains low, when trading volume moderately increases, daily candles close lower, indicating that in the current market's long - short game, even with limited intensity, prices tend to decline, presenting an overall weakening and volatile pattern. On the support side, the lower support mainly relies on the logic of the consumption peak season, but the support from the demand side to the market has weakened both in terms of time and space, and there are no new positive drivers in the market. In this context, if there are no new positive factors, crude oil prices may turn downward [3] Market Dynamics US Inventory Data - For the week ending July 18, 2025, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.859 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 300,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 213,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 908,000 barrels and a previous increase of 3.399 million barrels. Refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.135 million barrels and a previous increase of 4.173 million barrels. Crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 95.5%, compared with an expected 93.4% and a previous 93.9%. Last week, US crude oil inventory continued to decline for the second consecutive week, effectively alleviating previous market concerns about inventory accumulation. US crude oil inventory remains at the bottom of the five - year range, providing strong support for oil prices. Meanwhile, US gasoline and diesel inventories showed a divergent trend: gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, while diesel inventory increased by 455,000 barrels. Although diesel inventory increased slightly, due to the relatively low overall inventory base, there will be no obvious pressure to build inventory in the short term [4] International Trade and Supply - related News - The EU and the US are on the verge of reaching a trade agreement that will impose a 15% tariff on European imported goods, similar to the agreement Trump reached with Japan this week [5] - In May, Saudi Arabia's non - oil exports increased by 6.0%, while crude oil export value decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and commodity exports decreased by 14.0% year - on - year [5] - Due to changes in port entry regulations, oil transportation in Russia's Black Sea has been disrupted. Oil loading at two major Russian Black Sea terminals has been suspended due to paperwork related to new port - entry safety regulations. An industry insider expects the situation to be resolved within one or two days [5] Geopolitical News - Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran will respond to the activation of the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism. On July 23 local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharehabadi stated that European countries (UK, France, Germany) should not coordinate positions with the US. Iran will respond to the activation of the "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism and is still discussing whether to withdraw from the "Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons". He also mentioned that Iran has agreed to an International Atomic Energy Agency technical delegation visiting Tehran in the next two to three weeks [6] Global Crude Oil盘面 Price and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 07 - 24 | 2025 - 07 - 23 | 2025 - 07 - 17 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 68.8 | 68.51 | 69.52 | 0.29 | - 0.72 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 64.79 | 64.49 | 66.23 | 0.3 | - 1.44 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 498.8 | 498.1 | 502.9 | 0.7 | - 4.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 67.85 | 67.61 | 66.89 | 0.24 | 0.96 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 70.7 | 70.72 | 69.99 | - 0.02 | 0.71 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 71.36 | 70.89 | 69.81 | 0.47 | 1.55 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.66 | 0.98 | 1.63 | - 0.32 | - 0.97 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.98 | - 0.14 | - 0.3 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.72 | 1.98 | 0.98 | - 0.26 | 0.74 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.94 | 0.03 | - 0.25 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 5.8 | 7 | 11.1 | - 1.2 | - 5.3 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.9378 | 1.877 | 3.7858 | 0.0608 | - 1.848 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.1022 | - 1.033 | 0.6158 | - 0.0692 | - 1.718 | [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 24, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Last week, driven by anti - involution sentiment, ferroalloy prices maintained a slow upward trend. After the Friday close, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to stabilize growth in key industries such as steel, strengthening market expectations for supply - side reform. Recently, the overall price center of the black sector has shifted upward, and coal prices have gradually strengthened, supporting the rise of ferroalloy prices. In the short term, ferroalloy prices are optimistic. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloy is relatively small, with silicon - manganese in a destocking trend and silicon - iron having high inventory but supported by coal prices. The current price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment, and the fundamental resonance is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon - iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) Silicon - iron - The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is - 171 yuan/ton (+90.5), and in Ningxia production area is - 44 yuan/ton (+54) - This week, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory is 6.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.54% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [7] Silicon - manganese - The government's control policy on high - energy - consuming industries remains strict, and the silicon - manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulation - The profit in the northern region is - 57.9 yuan/ton (+100.58), and in the southern region is - 393.26 yuan/ton (+96.32) - Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory is 21.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%; silicon - manganese warehouse receipts are 39.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6%; total silicon - manganese inventory is 61.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64% - Pig iron production has increased more than expected [8] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) Silicon - iron - Silicon - iron warehouse - receipt inventory is 10.98 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.02%; total silicon - iron inventory is 17.33 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% - This week, the demand for silicon - iron in five major steel products is 2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% - The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output is 10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [9] Silicon - manganese - In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon - manganese demand - The demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel products is 12.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [9] Daily Data Silicon - iron - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia is 68 (a day - on - day increase of 292, a week - on - week decrease of 74), and other basis and price data are also provided - The price of blue charcoal small materials remains unchanged at 540, Qinhuangdao thermal coal is 649 (a day - on - day increase of 2, a week - on - week increase of 12), and Yulin thermal coal remains unchanged at 510 - Silicon - iron warehouse receipts are 22124 (a day - on - day decrease of 26, a week - on - week increase of 174) [9] Silicon - manganese - On July 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia is 162 (a day - on - day increase of 124, a week - on - week decrease of 38), and other basis, price and warehouse - receipt data are also provided [10][11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese include market price, basis, futures spread, and inventory, covering multiple years and different contracts [12][13][15][16][19][20][22][23][25][26][29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [N/A] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock indices closed higher today. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, after yesterday's adjustment, were relatively strong and hit new highs for the year. The trading volume in the two markets decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level for the year. Affected by the news that Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 this year, related concept sectors such as free trade zones and duty - free shops led the gains. In terms of futures basis, the basis of each variety contract increased today, and the open interest also increased, indicating that bulls entered the market. With the current news being relatively calm and the market sentiment remaining optimistic, it is expected that the stock indices will continue to operate strongly [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock indices closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 1.9894 billion yuan. The stock index futures all rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - Approved by the Party Central Committee, Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 this year. A series of policy measures will be implemented on the day of the full - island customs closure. Among them, the proportion of the tax items of "zero - tariff" goods imported from the "first line" will be increased from 21% to 74%. These goods can circulate within the island among beneficiaries without import tax, and those with a processing value - added of 30% can be sold to the Chinese mainland duty - free [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.76 | 0.50 | 1.72 | 1.84 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.4133 | 5.3842 | 9.5468 | 20.5106 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.6976 | - 1.3034 | - 0.9753 | - 0.6634 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.1368 | 10.0891 | 22.9789 | 33.8313 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.2311 | 0.0135 | 0.1553 | 0.0035 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.21 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.80 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 18447.06 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | - 198.94 | [8]