投资咨询中心 期现日报 2025年09月09日 | 791 N 2017 For | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 今收 | 昨结 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅(%) 成交量(手) | | 增减 | 持仓量(手) | 临产 | 授机度 | 增减 | | 原油主力 | 482. 8 | 476.2 | 6.6 | 1.39 | 111072 | -19383 | 24. 849 | 241 | 4.47 | -0. 83 | | 原油指数 | 481. 0 | 475.8 | 5.2 | 1.09 | 149598 | -30518 | 68.931 | 2.038 | 2.17 | -0. 52 | | PTA主力 | 4678 | 4662 | 16.0 | 0. 34 | 431206 | -303802 | 1.028,088 | -12. 349 | 0. 42 | -0. 29 | | PTA指数 | 4676 | 4659 | 17.0 | 0. ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coke are healthy, and the price is expected to remain volatile [1]. - The gold market may have a reversal after the Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, and it is still bullish before that, but attention should be paid to the rhythm [2]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate broadly and strongly [4]. - Short - term steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand in September should be further observed [4]. - The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are mainly weak [5]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [5]. - Domestic soybean prices will be slightly adjusted in the short term [6]. - Short - term treasury bonds will continue to fluctuate [6][7]. - Silver is still fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on callbacks [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Oil prices will remain under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested [10]. - The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on callbacks [11]. - The asphalt market may follow the crude oil market and fluctuate weakly [13]. - Rubber should be treated as fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Coke - Supply: Some coking supplies in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have decreased, and production in restricted enterprises is resuming after the parade. Other regions are operating actively, but overall production has shrunk [1]. - Demand: Steel mill production was restricted during the parade, and demand is recovering [1]. - Inventory: Coking enterprise inventories have slightly increased in some areas due to transportation disruptions. The eighth round of price increase failed, and steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Market sentiment is driven by the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. After the cut is realized, the market may reverse. It is still bullish before the cut [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased [4]. - Demand: Hot metal production is expected to increase [4]. - Inventory: 47 - port iron ore inventories are expected to accumulate. Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4]. Steel (Rebar) - Demand: With the end of high - temperature weather, steel demand is expected to improve in September, but supply expansion pressure exists. The market is in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - Cost: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and cost support has weakened. Short - term prices may fluctuate narrowly [4]. Pig - Market: The live - pig price has mainly declined, with significant drops in some regions. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short the near - term contract and long the far - term contract, and farmers can hedge by selling [5]. Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September, but domestic palm oil has been arriving in large quantities [5]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. Soybean - Market: The domestic soybean market is stable, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. State - owned reserves are releasing old grains, and prices will be slightly adjusted in the short term [6]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Market: The money - market interest rate has mostly increased, and the bond market is affected by supply, demand, and the stock market. Short - term treasury bonds will fluctuate [6][7]. Silver - Influence factors: If Japan implements looser monetary policy and the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be bullish for silver. It is still fluctuating upward, and attention should be paid to gold's influence [7]. Methanol - Supply: Domestic methanol production is at a high level and rising, with some plants resuming production. Import volume is expected to remain high in September [8]. - Demand: Downstream demand is stable, inventories are accumulating, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate [8]. Soda Ash - Supply: Production has increased, and inventories have decreased slightly [9]. - Demand: Floating glass production is stable, but downstream demand has not improved. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. Crude Oil - Supply: The market is worried about Russian sanctions, but supply is expected to increase overall [10]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Oil prices will remain under pressure in the fourth quarter [10]. Polypropylene - Supply: Production has declined slightly, but supplies are still abundant due to new capacity. Inventories are rising [11]. - Demand: Demand is slowly improving. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate [11]. Asphalt - Supply: Production has increased, but supply is still restricted due to lack of quotas and device conversion [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand improvement is limited. The market may follow the crude oil market and fluctuate weakly [13]. Rubber - Supply: Supply is in the increasing period, but rainfall has affected production, and raw material prices are relatively firm [14]. - Demand: Demand is weak, and tire companies have a specific purchasing strategy. It is treated as fluctuating upward [14].

Group 1: Gold - The Fed's independence is challenged, and the risk of stagflation in the US increases. The market has fully priced in a September rate cut, which is the driving force for gold's rise. Gold's upward momentum may weaken in the short term but remains bullish before the rate cut is implemented [1]. Group 2: Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate is rising at a high level, downstream demand is relatively stable, and methanol port inventories continue to accumulate. It is expected that the import volume in September will remain high. The inland methanol market is strong, and the port methanol market basis is strong. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 2430 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Group 3: Coking Coal - Due to the military parade, some coal mines in Shanxi have stopped or reduced production, and port customs clearance has been tightened. After the parade, supply will gradually recover, and demand will enter the peak season. The short - term price still has support [4]. Group 4: Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have increased as expected. Iron ore demand is expected to return to a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. If the recovery of molten iron production falls short of expectations, the fundamentals may weaken marginally [5]. Group 5: Rebar - Affected by the military parade, iron - water production has decreased significantly, demand has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The peak - season demand is expected to pick up, and the futures price still has support. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand [6]. Group 6: Live Pigs - The short - term market continues to show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is advisable to try to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [7]. Group 7: Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory are expected to increase in August, but exports are strong. The domestic palm oil market is trading actively, but pre - festival stocking has not started. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Group 8: Rapeseed Meal - The Ministry of Commerce has launched an anti - dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Future attention should be paid to trade policies, downstream raw material inventories, and aquaculture conditions [8]. Group 9: Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations is rising. The central bank's open - market trading of treasury bonds may support long - term treasury bonds. Attention should be paid to the subsequent trend of the stock market [8]. Group 10: Silver - US employment data is declining, economic downward pressure is increasing, and risk appetite is weakening, which puts pressure on silver. The short - term upward momentum of silver is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver [9]. Group 11: Soda Ash - The float glass operating rate is relatively stable, and inventory has increased slightly. The domestic soda ash market is weakening. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at the 1300 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. Group 12: Polypropylene - Polypropylene production has declined, but overall supply remains abundant, demand is slowly picking up, and commercial inventory has increased. The market price is fluctuating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 6980 level. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 13: Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. The Fed's rate - cut cycle may start, but it is difficult to change the supply - demand fundamentals, and oil prices will still be under pressure. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [10][12]. Group 14: Rubber - Rubber supply is in the increasing stage, but the increase is slower than expected due to rainfall. Demand is still weak. The market should be treated as fluctuating with a slightly bullish bias. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main producing areas [12]. Group 15: PTA - PTA supply is expected to increase, the demand for weaving has slightly recovered, and orders are average. The cost side is weakening. An overall view of weak fluctuations is taken, and a strategy of shorting at high levels is recommended [13].

双焦期货周度报告 2025年09月08日 供应显著下滑 首轮提降开启 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场偏弱运行。周五河北市 场部分钢厂开启首轮提降，对湿熄焦炭下调50元/吨、干熄焦炭 下调55元/吨，2025年9月8日零点执行。市场情绪减弱，后期需 关注钢焦企业复产速度以及铁水产量变化。 基本面分析：供应端，本周山西多地煤矿开启停产检修，原 煤日产较上周收缩，不过随着停产煤矿陆续复产，下旬供应或有 所恢复；本周主流大矿线上竞拍，区域内成交情况一般，整体下 跌且流拍率达约60%，高价资源流拍现象不减，现中间洗煤及贸易 表示下游采购询价较少，出货乏力；下游方面，本周五大钢材品 种供需双降，库存继续累增，需求表现较差，基本面持续改善尚 需时间。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment strategy for the bond market is "oscillating bearish, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, long - term bond yields are rising too fast. The central bank may introduce open - market bond trading policies soon [2][26] - The overall economic sentiment in China continues to expand, but the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter - cyclical regulation needs to be continuously strengthened [16] - The main tone of liquidity in the second half of the year is loose, but the probability of ultra - loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases sharply [18] - The stock - bond seesaw remains a negative factor for the bond market, and the supply - demand contradiction in the long - term bond market may be more prominent [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1. Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - term bond market into a downward trend, but the logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, making market operations difficult [9] - The July Politburo meeting set the tone for an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a certain guarantee for the steady growth of the economy in the second half of the year [9] 1.2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic sentiment continued to expand in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13][16][26] - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently announced cuts in RMB deposit interest rates, with a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points [2][13] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's bond trading operations has been gradually increasing recently [14] - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss topics such as government bond issuance management and central bank bond trading operations [15] - In August, the central bank carried out 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan, and also carried out 3000 billion yuan of net investment in outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of medium - term liquidity of 6000 billion yuan [15] 1.3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 1.3.1. Economic Fundamentals - China's economic sentiment continued to expand, but the economic downward pressure increased in July, and counter - cyclical regulation needs to be continuously strengthened [16] - China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations [16] - In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with export growth of 8% and import growth of 4.8% [16] 1.3.2. Policy Aspect - At the end of July, the balance of broad - money M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.2% [18] - The stock of social financing reached 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The newly added social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 1.3.3. Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has continued to decline, and the cost of funds has decreased [18] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, maintain adequate liquidity, and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy [18] 1.3.4. Supply - Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds [21] - The special long - term treasury bond funds this year support equipment renewal with 200 billion yuan. The first batch of about 173 billion yuan has been allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields, and the second batch is in the process of project review and selection [21] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently [21] 1.3.5. Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term shock range downward, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [23] - The short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while the long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [23] 1.4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The central bank may introduce open - market bond trading policies soon to address the issue of the rapid rise in long - term bond yields [2][26] - The continuous increase in China's economic sentiment has further boosted risk appetite, and the stock - bond seesaw remains a negative factor for the bond market, which requires the guiding role of the central bank's open - market bond trading policies [26]

短期低位做多，逢高止盈 摘 要： 行情展望： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 从供应端来看，9 月份出栏量环比增加，养殖场出栏 积极性提高，屠宰厂收购顺畅，但企业暂无主动入库意向， 且终端按需采购，因此屠宰量难有明显波动。 从需求端来看，天气虽然转凉，但 9 月份屠宰量提 振并不明显，需求端基本维持稳定。 综合来看，生猪价格上涨空间有限，可尝试短多交易， 逢高止盈离场，等待机会。 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证期货 2.供应情况分析 图 2：样本企业能繁母猪存栏量月度走势图(万头 ...

钢材期货周度报告 2025年09月08日 限产影响弱化 盘面低位震荡 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格震荡下跌，全国主要城市20mm三级 抗震螺纹钢均价3287元/吨，周环比跌39元/吨。周初利好情绪降 温，市场需求疲软，周中钢厂利润收窄，产量小幅减少，原材支 撑延续，库存增幅放缓，价格窄幅震荡，周尾"反内卷"消息提 振市场情绪，价格低位回升；利多利空因素与基本面博弈延续。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度持续走弱，铁水产量有所减少，品种 产量也有所下降。需求端：由于淡季向旺季转换的影响，市场商 家备货需求也逐渐加大，但市场成交则表现不稳。成本端：由于 铁矿石价格稳中趋强，废钢价格小幅下滑，焦炭价格维持平稳， 生产成本支撑维持韧性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com ...

降息预期行情加速，注意把控节奏 摘 要： 美国 8 月非农就业仅增长 2.2 万人，远不及市场预期的 7.5 万 人。6 月非农就业数据由此前的增加 2.7 万人大幅下修至减少 1.3 万人，为自 2020 年以来首次出现月度就业人数萎缩。8 月失业率升 至 4.3%，为 2021 年以来新高。美国非农和就业数据为 9 月降息扫 平障碍。联储理事库克已于 8 月 28 日在华盛顿联邦法院提起诉讼， 对特朗普总统以"其在抵押贷款申请中撒谎"为由试图解雇她的行 为提出质疑，这场诉讼拉开了关于美国央行独立性的历史性争端序 幕。市场担心美联储的独立性受到挑战，从而对未来美联储货币宽 松的步伐或加快，美元持续走低，将进一步推高美黄金，但是美联 储降息兑现后，黄金或面临回调，操作黄金需要把控节奏。 从近期公布的经济数据来看，美国二季度实际 GDP 年化修正值 环比增 3.3%，增幅高于预期值 3.1%和初值 3%，二季度核心个人消 费支出（PCE）物价指数年化修正值环比增 2.5%，与初值一致，但 低于预期值2.6%。美国8月ISM制造业指数从7月的48微升至48.7， 低于市场预期的49，连续六个月低于荣枯线。新订单指 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The international oil price continues to decline due to concerns about increased production by OPEC and its allies, and the market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of eight major oil - producing countries on October's production policy. Short - term trading or waiting is advisable [1]. - Gold may rise due to challenges to the Fed's independence and increased concerns about US inflation and economic downturn. It may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data on Friday [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain high and volatile due to the game between weakening fundamentals and positive factors such as peak - season expectations and arbitrage funds [3]. - The domestic coking coal market is expected to adjust weakly in the short term as demand and supply factors are in a complex situation [3]. - Steel prices may have limited fluctuations in the short term, and the recovery of demand will determine the later trend [4]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly as the cost is supported by high - priced raw materials and the inventory is in the destocking cycle, although demand has not improved [5]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly as supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement [6]. - Short - term bonds are supported by sufficient liquidity but have not entered a bullish trend, and the upward momentum is insufficient [7]. - Silver is under pressure due to the weakening US employment data, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payroll data [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [9]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Domestic and imported soybean prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to US crop growth and international relations [11]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the data released by major producing countries [11]. - The short - term price of live pigs is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. It is advisable to try short - selling near - term contracts and long - buying far - term contracts, and farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - EIA report shows that commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day in the week of August 29. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day to 27.84 million barrels per day, the largest increase in five months [1]. Natural Gas - No relevant content provided Metals Iron Ore - From August 25 to August 31, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.45 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.827 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 25.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.327 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 13.008 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.478 million tons [3]. Gold - The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, which challenges the Fed's independence, increases concerns about US inflation and economic downturn, and is the driving force for gold's rise [1]. Silver - US August ADP employment increased by only 54,000, far lower than the expected 65,000, and the initial jobless claims last week increased by 8,000 to 237,000, the highest since June [7]. Copper - No relevant content provided Chemicals PTA - PXCFR is currently reported at $846 per ton, PX - N is $246 per ton, and East China PTA is reported at 4,710 yuan per ton, with a cash - flow cost of 4,724 yuan per ton. The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated at 16 - 26 days [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,245 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan per ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate of methanol is 86.63%, up 1.77%. The 1.5 million - ton/year methanol plant of Ningxia Baofeng is expected to end maintenance this week [8]. Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7,306 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous day. The weekly output of LLDPE is 276,500 tons, up 3.08% week - on - week [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1,281.5 yuan per ton, showing a downward trend recently. The weekly output of soda ash is 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.53% [10]. Agricultural Products Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in September is expected to be 6.75 million tons, compared with 5.16 million tons in the same period last year; the export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 6.37 million tons, compared with 6.56 million tons last year; the export volume of corn is expected to be 1.94 million tons, compared with 1.62 million tons last year [11]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 31, 2025, is estimated to increase by 2.07% compared with the same period last month, with a decline of 1.26% in the Malay Peninsula and an increase of 7.56% in East Malaysia [11]. Live Pig - On September 4, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 19.85 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous day [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand is 55.8 Thai baht per kilogram, and the price of cup rubber is 52.05 Thai baht per kilogram. Hainan Rubber reported that due to Typhoon "Jianyu", the company's rubber plantation had about 2,800 mu of报废 area, about 360,000 rubber and non - rubber biological assets were damaged, and the annual dry rubber production is expected to decrease by about 25,000 tons [5]. Others Short - term Treasury Bonds - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal on the same day was 203.5 billion yuan [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the rubber market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is in the up - volume period, but the up - volume is slower year - on - year due to rainfall. Raw material prices are relatively firm, and processing profits are neutral. Rubber inventory in China is decreasing, and light - colored rubber inventory is at a low level. On the demand side, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased year - on - year in July, factory profits declined significantly under over - capacity, and there is still pressure to digest semi - steel tire inventory. In the long - term, the big - cycle inflection point of rubber supply has arrived. The decline in the growth rate of tapping area and the aging of rubber trees restrict the growth of rubber production, and this factor will deepen year by year. Strategically, rubber can be a multi - allocation variety for the year, especially in years or periods with abnormal weather [2][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Impact of Tapping Area and Tree Aging on Rubber Production - As of 2024, the ANPRC tapping area was 97.43 million hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.02%, and the growth rate was negative for the first time. The growth rate of the tapping area in 2025 is expected to be - 0.71% (calculated based on 6 - year tapping) and - 0.76% (calculated based on 7 - year tapping), and the decline rate will expand. The growth rate of the tapping area is expected to be negative from 2025 - 2030 [4] - The proportion of 8 - 12 - year - old rubber trees is decreasing year by year, showing an aging trend. The proportion was 33.6% in 2022, 31.02% in 2023, 27.93% in 2024, and is expected to drop to 22% in 2025 and below 20% after 2026 [5] - Affected by the above factors, the growth rate of natural rubber production has slowed down. In July, the global natural rubber production is expected to drop 0.1% to 1.246 million tons. Thailand's rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase 1.2% to 14.89 million tons due to good weather and increased per - mu yield [5] - The actual production growth rate of traditional rubber - producing countries has declined compared with 2023. For example, Thailand's production from January to June 2025 was 1.964 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83% but a 6.58% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Indonesia's production from January to June 2025 was 1.176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a 25% decrease compared with 2023. Vietnam's production from January to June 2025 was 352,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.12%. The production of emerging rubber - producing countries, such as Cote d'Ivoire, has shown good growth. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume increased 14.3% year - on - year [6] 3.2. Impact of Imports on Rubber Inventory in China - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase compared with the same period in 2024. From January to July, the total import volume was 4.709 million tons, a 20.8% increase compared with the same period in 2024. The expected import volume in August is still high due to the approaching peak production season in Southeast Asia and the continuous impact of the zero - tariff policy [7] - The social inventory of natural rubber in China has been decreasing since April, but large imports have inhibited the de - stocking speed. As of August 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 796,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. The inventory of light - colored rubber has dropped to a low level in the past three years [8] 3.3. Rubber Consumption Situation - The output of rubber tire casings in China has declined for three consecutive months. In July 2025, the output was 94.364 million pieces, a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the output increased 0.7% year - on - year to 686.115 million pieces [9] - In the tire consumption field, the supporting tire consumption is good. In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The supporting demand for tires is expected to be 79.07 million pieces for passenger cars and 16.786 million pieces for commercial vehicles from January to July 2025 [9] - The growth rate of the tire export market has slowed down. In the first 7 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume was 416 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, lower than the growth rate in 2024. The reasons include pressure in the European and Asian markets. In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and China's tire re - export to the Asian market was blocked due to tariff issues [10] - The tire replacement market is under pressure. The new housing construction area has a negative growth, and the PM1 data shows that China's economic vitality needs to be improved. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires are relatively low, and there is still a need to further reduce tire inventory [11]