1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy suggestion is bullish with oscillations [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous deterioration of the US employment situation has increased market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [2][27] - The increase in the expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has led to a re - evaluation of the US dollar's competitiveness in the market. Although the US dollar index has been relatively strong recently, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been limited, and the short - term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate have had limited impact on precious metals [3] - As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited due to production increase pressure [20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The significant decline in US non - farm and employment data has increased market concerns about the US economic downturn. Currently, the market is trading on the amplitude and consecutive number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Gold prices have been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment. Subsequently, gold and silver may rise simultaneously under the impetus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation, but may decline significantly after the interest rate cut is implemented. The upward trend of silver also needs to pay attention to the short - term fluctuations of gold [9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The US Senate plans to hold a full - scale vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will enter the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee and participate in subsequent interest rate decision - making votes [12] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months to 3.9% [12] - The global central bank reserve pattern is about to undergo a milestone change. The proportion of gold in the reserves of global central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [14] - In August, the US CPI was in line with expectations year - on - year, slightly higher than expected month - on - month. The core CPI was in line with expectations and the previous value both year - on - year and month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected value and the initial value. The annualized revised value of the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected value [14] - The US PPI inflation unexpectedly declined in August, providing new support for the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates next week [15] 3.3 Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.3.1 US Economy and Policy - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September was at a five - month low, and the 5 - year inflation expectation rose for two consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing index in August was slightly higher than that in July but lower than expected, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range. The current US economic data shows increasing downward pressure on the US economy [16] 3.3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14th to 17th to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok. Trump has made a series of statements on sanctions against Russia, pressuring Europe to impose economic pressure on China, and imposing tariffs on semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US. After the successful completion of China's September 3rd military parade, the US has continued to release negative signals, intensifying geopolitical tensions [19] 3.3.3 Other Financial Markets - The US non - farm employment growth in August was far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. The US economic downward pressure has increased, indicating the necessity of interest rate cuts. The US service industry PMI in July reached a new high since December 2024. Crude oil is still greatly affected by production cuts, and there are differences in the trends of domestic and foreign copper prices. As the expectation of a September interest rate cut strengthens, high - risk - appetite assets may further strengthen, but the upward momentum of crude oil is limited [20] 3.3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate still passively tracks the US dollar index. With the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the expectation of a decline in the US dollar index has increased, but the US dollar has shown good resilience. The offshore RMB exchange rate has continued to appreciate, but the appreciation range is limited. The RMB exchange rate is not a key consideration factor as its impact on gold is limited [24] 3.4 Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continuous deterioration of the US employment situation, market expectations for the number and amplitude of consecutive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year have increased. However, due to the relatively strong US dollar index, the increase in precious metals has been limited [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently characterized by shrinking steel - mill profits, weak supply and demand for rebar. The price of rebar oscillated weakly this week, with a rebound at the end of the week due to macro - expectation news. In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range [2][3][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton. Demand expectations were unmet, inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill profits narrowed significantly. However, production remained at a high level. The market sentiment was weak, but raw - material support still existed. The price oscillated weakly and rebounded at the end of the week [2][3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The State Council approved pilot comprehensive reforms on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new - quality productive forces [5]. - Eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [5]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [5]. - In August, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. For the first 8 months of this year, the total goods trade imports and exports were 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [6]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [6]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [6]. - In early September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 103,100 tons, higher than last week's 97,000 tons. Some market traders felt that the terminal procurement volume had increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period, but the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the later stage, steel production may remain at a high level, demand may see a slight recovery, showing a weak - recovery trend. The supply - demand fundamentals are generally balanced, and the short - term steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - hotspots such as the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [24]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The supply of coking coal and coke has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts for coke has begun. After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The investment strategies are mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for coking profits [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. The first - round price cut for coke was officially implemented on Monday. Due to poor steel mill profits, the second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was proposed on Friday and took effect at 0:00 on September 15, while coke enterprises have not responded yet [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council approved pilot projects for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new productive forces [6]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. The industry aims for stable and positive development in 2026 [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [6]. - In August, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. Exports and imports increased for three consecutive months. In the first eight months, the total goods trade import and export value was 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [7]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month [7]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise, up 2.61 million tons or 39.6% from the beginning of the year, and up 360,000 tons or 4.1% from the same period last year, with the year - on - year change turning from a decrease to an increase [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Except for a few coal mines whose underground production has not recovered, most previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply has returned to normal. The coking coal auction performance has been mixed, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment has eased [2]. - **Demand**: Currently, downstream coke - steel enterprises have low procurement willingness, mainly for just - in - time inventory replenishment. The market is in a wait - and - see state. Due to poor sales and continuous price pressure of finished products, while raw material costs were previously firm, steel mill profits have gradually shrunk. This week, the pig iron output recovered significantly, showing a short - term demand recovery, but the medium - and long - term market outlook remains cautious, and the peak - season characteristics are not significant [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Market Outlook**: After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. After the market correction in late August and considering potential macro - policy disturbances, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly [30]. - **Investment Strategies**: For single - side trading, mainly conduct range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "oscillating with a bearish bias, and paying attention to the stock-bond seesaw" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing supply. The liquidity in the interbank market faces pressure from bond supply, and the tight balance of liquidity due to the demand from the real economy and the warming stock market has increased negative factors for the bond market [2][27] - China's economic prosperity continues to expand overall. The acceleration of the economic recovery rhythm in September is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [2][27] - The loose liquidity is the main tone of the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to provide timely liquidity support according to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the fiscal bond - issuing rhythm has accelerated. The supply - demand logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic have increased the difficulty of bond market operations [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [13] - Affected by the high base and food prices, in August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [13][14] - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14][15] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations has been gradually rising [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. The overall economic data in August shows that the endogenous economic momentum is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. Continuous strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment will be a long - term negative factor for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspect - At the end of August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates that economic activities have increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing has increased compared with last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the Fed's interest rate cut may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing [18] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [22] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk preference has increased. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the increase in bond market supply and the tight balance of liquidity have increased negative factors for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to run smoothly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The negotiation focus in the East China market has moved up. Driven by the rise in the peripheral market, prices in Shandong and northern Jiangsu have followed suit, which has boosted production and sales. The overall shipment of enterprises is okay. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1140. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][23] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot negotiation focus in the domestic float glass market has risen, and the average price this week was 1160 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.31 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, overall shipment was good, inventory decreased, and prices were raised. In the East China market, the negotiation focus moved up, and prices in Shandong and northern Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, followed by enterprises in Anhui and Zhejiang with increases of 20 - 40 yuan/ton. Although the overall shipment was okay, most lacked confidence in the future market due to limited improvement in downstream orders [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of September 11, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 76.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to be stable. The weekly average profit of float glass using different fuels has different changes [12] - **Demand - side**: As of September 1, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.8% and a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. However, the terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to August 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 276940,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In August 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The production and sales of automobiles in August were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively [14] - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China markets has decreased [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of September 12, the long position of the top 20 members in glass futures was 770,040, an increase of 6982, and the short position was 986,666, an increase of 35,331. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable. There are no plans for water release or ignition of production lines this week, so the output is expected to run smoothly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The negotiation focus in the East China market has moved up, which has boosted production and sales. The overall shipment of enterprises is okay. Attention should be paid to the change in float glass demand in the later stage. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near term, with the support level for the 01 contract at 1140. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening. Slaughterhouses can easily acquire supplies, resulting in sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] - The demand side indicates that there is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, with little change in slaughter volume, and pork consumption continues to be weak [2][20] - Overall, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains high, terminal demand has not improved, there is little second - fattening, supply exceeds demand, pig prices have reached a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening, leading to smooth acquisition of supplies by slaughterhouses and sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - There is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, and there is little change in slaughter volume, with pork consumption remaining weak [2][20] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text 4. Market Outlook - The supply side has high slaughter enthusiasm from farms, strict transportation inspections, and low second - fattening enthusiasm, resulting in sufficient supplies. The demand side has no obvious positive news, high fresh - sales rate, and little change in slaughter volume. Supply exceeds demand, pig prices are at a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overall, after the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal quickly recovered, but the second - round price cut of coke began. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is continuously affected. The market is trading the subsequent interest - rate cut range and the number of consecutive interest - rate cuts of the Federal Reserve. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the gold price shows a bullish trend, but the rhythm needs attention [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar remains to be further verified, which limits the upside space of iron ore. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The policy signals are still positive. The supply - demand contradiction of rebar continues to accumulate, but with the return of the peak season, the demand is expected to pick up, and the policy still has positive impacts. The subsequent focus is on the recovery of peak - season demand [4]. - The supply of live pigs exceeds demand, and the pig price has reached a new low in recent years. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms and the recovery of demand [5]. - The potential increase in the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in Indonesia and the decrease in the production of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 10 are positive for palm oil. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - The supply - demand pattern of domestic soybeans remains weak. The price of domestic soybeans has stabilized and rebounded, but the upside space is limited [6]. - The short - term methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the upper pressure at the 2390 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8]. - The narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates strengthened economic momentum, which is bearish for long - term bonds in the medium term. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias [8]. - The short - term soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at the 1310 level. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - The short - term PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate, with the upper pressure at the 6965 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. After the interest - rate cut is realized, it may follow the expected - realization trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of gold fluctuations on silver [10]. - The geopolitical risk, especially the concern about Russian crude oil supply, supports the crude oil market, but the pressure of supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress oil prices for a long time. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - term trading should be cautious [12]. - The weekly production of PTA may gradually recover. The overall situation is that the supply is at a medium - low level and the demand shows seasonal strength. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The rubber market is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a fluctuating view [13]. Summary by Product Coking Coal - Mysteel statistics show that the daily coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.88 to 46.6 (in million tons), the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.62% to 85.93%, the coke inventory increased by 9.58 to 633.29 (in million tons), the available days of coke decreased by 0.42 to 11.29 days, the coking coal inventory decreased by 2.03 to 793.73 (in million tons), the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.28 to 12.81 days, the pulverized coal injection inventory decreased by 5.60 to 415.49 (in million tons), and the available days of pulverized coal injection decreased by 0.62 to 12.14 days [1]. Gold - The US Senate plans to vote on Trump's nomination of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor on the evening of the 15th. If the nomination is approved, he will participate in the subsequent interest - rate decision - making of the Fed [1]. Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 13849.47 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 million tons; the daily port clearance volume is 331.28 million tons, an increase of 13.50 million tons; the number of ships at ports is 100, a decrease of 4 [3]. Rebar - Mysteel research shows that the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 240.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.71 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.17 million tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of September 12, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.46 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 31.8%, an increase of 0.09%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 194.81 yuan per head, a decrease of 10.31 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is 21.12 yuan per head, a decrease of 3.22 yuan per head; the price of piglets is 284.29 yuan per head, a decrease of 31.42 yuan per head [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) before moving to B50. Currently, the mandatory blending ratio is 40%, and it is planned to increase to 50% next year [5]. Soybeans - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/26 season will be 175 million tons, the same as the August forecast, and Argentina's soybean output will be 48.5 million tons, also the same as the August forecast [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, a decrease of 2.05%. The 300,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Guizhou Chitianhua is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.75%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.03 million tons, a weekly increase of 12.26 million tons. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol production enterprises is 34.26 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.45 million tons, and the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 25.07 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.94 million tons [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - quality soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, showing a recent weak and fluctuating trend. The weekly soda - ash output is 76.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 179.75 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.35%. The operating rate of float glass is 76.01%, a weekly increase of 0.1 percentage point. The national average price of float glass is 1164 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 61.583 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.33% [9]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous day. The polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 74.83%, a decrease of 1.78% from the previous day. The average operating rate of downstream industries is 50.86%, a weekly increase of 0.63 percentage points. The commercial inventory of polypropylene is 83.66 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.32 million tons. The polyolefin inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is 65.5 million tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Silver - The preliminary value of the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index is 55.4, the lowest since May, with an expected value of 58. The preliminary value of the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.9%, rising for two consecutive months [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 416 compared with the previous week and decreased by 72 compared with the same period last year. The US proposes to urge G7 allies to impose a tariff of up to 100% on the purchase of Russian oil [11][12]. PTA - The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises this week is 34.9%, a week - on - week increase of 6.8%. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises is 39.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.6%. The weekly average comprehensive profit of asphalt production is - 491.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 122.3 yuan/ton [12]. Rubber - The price of Thai cup lump rubber decreased by 0.5 Thai baht/kg to 51.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price remained firm at 56.2 Thai baht/kg, and the price difference between cup lump rubber and glue widened to 4.5 Thai baht/kg. Some areas in southern Thailand still have rainfall, and precipitation in Hainan affects rubber tapping, slowing down the new - rubber supply. The state - owned glue purchase price is 14400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of some private enterprises is 16000 - 16400 yuan/ton. Malaysia's natural - rubber exports in July decreased by 22.8% year - on - year to 372,000 tons and increased by 25.2% month - on - month [13].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The continuous rise of gold recently is mainly due to central banks' continuous gold purchases. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, gold shows a bullish trend, but the rhythm needs attention [1] - For coking coal, both domestic and foreign supplies are recovering. The downstream开工率 will recover this week, and the spot market has average trading volume. Short - term interval operation is recommended [1] - The capital market expects a tight money supply in the third quarter, which is negative for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the logic of liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw [3] - The significant increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US leads to market expectations of three interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [3] - For iron ore, the demand has good resilience, and the supply contracts in the short term. The price is expected to remain high and strong, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [4] - For rebar, the macro - economic outlook is positive. The steel demand shows a weak recovery in September. After a weak adjustment, the steel price may rebound if production can be controlled. In the short term, the price may fluctuate weakly [5] - The pig price is stable, with short - term oversupply. After a continuous decline, the price may stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the group - farm slaughter rhythm and demand recovery [6] - For palm oil, production decreased in early September, and the futures price rebounded. The price is expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term [6] - For soybeans, the supply - demand pattern of weak supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The domestic soybean price rebounds, but the upside space is limited [7] - For methanol, the domestic methanol market is mixed. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For LLDPE, the price trend is weak, with high supply and rising inventory. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] - For soda ash, the domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10] - For crude oil, OPEC+ supply increases significantly, and the demand does not improve significantly. The oil price is expected to be under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [10][11] - For rubber, it is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with an oscillating view, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [11] - For PTA, the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken, and the cost side is under pressure. A short - selling strategy on highs is recommended [12] Group 3: Summaries by Variety Gold - The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves (excluding the Fed) has exceeded US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, making gold the top reserve asset. Central banks' continuous gold purchases drive the price up. The market has fully priced in a September interest - rate cut, but a reversal may occur after the cut [1] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 82.7%, a 6.9% increase from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal and clean coal has increased, and the inventory has decreased. Both domestic and foreign supplies are recovering, and the downstream开工率 will recover this week [1] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Most short - term Shibor varieties have risen. The capital market expects a tight money supply in the third quarter, which is negative for the bond market. Attention should be paid to the logic of liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw [3] Silver - US CPI data is in line with expectations, but the number of initial jobless claims has increased significantly. The market expects three interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year. The US dollar index has fallen, and precious metals have risen. However, risk preference has declined, putting pressure on silver. Before the interest - rate cut is realized, silver fluctuates with a bullish bias [3] Iron Ore - From September 1st to 7th, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 tons compared with the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 572.5 tons. The demand for iron ore has good resilience, and the supply contracts in the short term. The price is expected to remain high and strong, but the upside space is cautiously optimistic [4] Rebar - As of the week of September 11th, the output, factory inventory, and apparent demand of rebar have decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The macro - economic outlook is positive, and the steel demand shows a weak recovery in September. After a weak adjustment, the steel price may rebound if production can be controlled. In the short term, the price may fluctuate weakly [5] Pig - On September 11th, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.1% compared with the previous day. The pig price is stable, with short - term oversupply. After a continuous decline, the price may stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the group - farm slaughter rhythm and demand recovery [6] Palm Oil - From September 1st to 10th, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.24% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 3.17%. The futures price of palm oil has rebounded, and the price is expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term [6] Soybeans - The sales pace of Argentine soybeans has slowed down. The domestic new - season soybeans are sporadically on the market, and the supply - demand pattern of weak supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The domestic soybean price rebounds, but the upside space is limited [7] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang has decreased. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] LLDPE - The price of LLDPE has a weak trend. The supply remains at a high level, the production enterprise inventory has increased, and the downstream开工率 is expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash has oscillated weakly. The weekly output has increased, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased slightly. The float glass开工率 is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ increased oil production in August, and the IEA has adjusted the supply and demand forecasts. The supply has increased significantly, and the demand has not improved significantly. The oil price is expected to be under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [10][11] Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand are stable. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. However, the sales growth rate of passenger cars decreased in August, and the demand is still weak. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the weather in the main production areas [11] PTA - The social inventory of PTA has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.29%. The pre - maintenance devices are expected to restart, and the supply - demand balance is expected to weaken. The cost side is under pressure, and a short - selling strategy on highs is recommended [12]

Group 1: Gold - The US economy may be weaker than expected, and the market is more concerned about the rate of this interest rate cut. The rebound of the US dollar index has weakened, which is positive for gold. The market has fully priced in the September interest rate cut, but a reversal may occur after the expectation is fulfilled. Before the interest rate cut is realized, the trend remains bullish, but the rhythm needs attention [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil - Concerns about oversupply still exist. Recent geopolitical issues such as the Israeli attack on Qatar and Poland's shooting down of Russian drones have disrupted the market. It is expected that the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut also supported the overnight crude oil market. It is advisable to wait and see and operate after the geopolitical issues weaken [2]. Group 3: Rebar - The demand recovery in the steel market in September is still slow. Low - priced resources have fair sales, while high - priced resources have poor sales. It is expected that the blast furnace hot metal output will increase this week, the iron ore price is strong, and the coking coal market is weakly stable. Currently, the market is in a fierce long - short game, and range - bound operations are recommended [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal - Recently, domestic coking coal production has been somewhat suppressed, but due to the lack of further production cut expectations, the optimistic atmosphere in the futures market has cooled. The market has gradually returned to the logic of demand drag, driving the main coking coal contract to fluctuate weakly. The bullish risk lies in the secondary fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy [4]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon - On the cost side, raw material prices and electricity costs remain stable overall, and there is still support for the cost of ferrosilicon. In terms of demand, steel production declined during the military parade, but the profit of finished products is fair, the peak season is approaching, and steel production is expected to increase. In terms of supply, ferrosilicon production has reached a high level, the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the difficulty of inventory reduction in the future is increasing. Currently, the market inventory pressure is acceptable, and the cost side still supports the ferrosilicon price in the short term, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline [5]. Group 6: Silver - The unexpected decline in the US PPI inflation in August adds new support for the Fed's interest rate cut decision next week. The continuous decline of the US PPI data indicates increased downward pressure on the US economy, and the market has started to focus on the rate of interest rate cut. The downward pressure on the US economy is greater than expected, the market risk appetite has been significantly revised down, which puts pressure on silver. Silver will fluctuate in the short term, be bullish before the interest rate cut is realized, and bearish after the cut [5]. Group 7: Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The CPI is still lower than expected, but core inflation has increased, and the decline of PPI has narrowed with a continuous month - on - month change. Overall, inflation shows that the economy has a certain resilience, which is positive for the stock market. In the third quarter, the bond market supply may be under pressure, which is negative for the long - end bond market. The bond market supply - demand and the stock - bond seesaw need to be considered together, and the short - term trend is bearish with fluctuations [6]. Group 8: Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national pig price mainly declined. The breeding side has pressure to sell, the demand increase is insufficient, and supply exceeds demand. Some southern regions have seen large declines due to environmental protection, epidemics and other factors, but low prices have stimulated resistance and the price is gradually stabilizing; there is concentrated selling in some northern regions, and the weak trend is difficult to change in the short term, with a low possibility of a sharp rebound. Farmers are advised to choose the right time to sell for hedging [7]. Group 9: Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the rapeseed raw materials of oil mills are tight, and the crushing output is limited. In the context of tight spot market circulation of rapeseed meal, traders and oil mills have a strong sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell. Coupled with the support of high import costs, the spot price of rapeseed meal is extremely firm. It is expected that the rapeseed meal price will mainly fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. Group 10: Rubber - In August, the growth rate of passenger car sales declined, and the finished product inventory still needs to be consumed, so the demand side is still weak. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand. It should be treated with a wait - and - see attitude. The weather conditions in the main producing areas of the industrial fundamentals still need attention [8]. Group 11: Palm Oil - The MPOB report data is basically in line with expectations, slightly bearish. Both production and ending inventory have increased slightly, and exports are lower than last month and the market's forecast this month, which is inconsistent with the data of previous institutions. In the domestic market, terminal buyers have made concentrated low - price replenishments, and trading volume has increased. The short - term palm oil futures price is somewhat supported, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [8]. Group 12: PTA - There is an expectation of increased PTA supply. In terms of demand, polyester inventory is low, and the downstream polyester load has stabilized and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in terminal orders. In terms of cost, the PX supply - demand expectation has weakened marginally, and there are short - term geopolitical factors affecting crude oil. Overall, it is advisable to wait and see for PTA [9]. Group 13: Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up rate has increased at a high level, downstream demand is relatively stable, and methanol port inventory continues to accumulate. The pick - up at the main storage areas along the Yangtze River is good, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The inland methanol market continues to be strong, enterprise auctions are smoothly traded, the basis of the port methanol market has strengthened, and trading is fair. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2390 level. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on pullbacks [9][10]. Group 14: Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1279 yuan/ton, and it has been fluctuating weakly recently. Soda ash weekly production has increased by 4.53% month - on - month; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased by 2.43% week - on - week; the float glass start - up rate has increased by 0.43 percentage points week - on - week; the national average price of float glass has increased by 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has increased by 0.77% month - on - month. The float glass start - up is relatively stable, and inventory has increased slightly. The East China market is mainly in a narrow - range consolidation. Some enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui have raised prices, and most downstream operations maintain just - in - time needs. The domestic soda ash market is in a dull and stable fluctuation. Soda ash plant start - up is at a high level, downstream demand is average, and low - price restocking transactions continue. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at the 1315 level. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Group 15: Plastic - The mainstream price of North China LLDPE is 7300 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; LLDPE weekly production has increased by 3.08% week - on - week; production enterprise inventory has increased by 2.01% week - on - week; the daily production profit of oil - based production is - 225 yuan/ton; the average start - up rate of downstream products of Chinese polyethylene has increased by 1.8% week - on - week, among which the overall start - up rate of agricultural film has increased by 2.7% compared with the previous period; the start - up rate of PE packaging film has increased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. Recently, the LLDPE price trend has been weak. The LLDPE device of Maoming Petrochemical has started, the market spot is sufficient, production enterprise inventory has increased, and the downstream start - up rate has slowly increased. Attention should be paid to the demand follow - up during the peak demand season, and the cost - side support has strengthened. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 7205 level. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [11].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】特朗普提名米兰担任美联储理事的人事案周 三可望在参议院扫清一个关键障碍，不过议员们表示，可能仍 来不及让米兰赶上参加下周美联储会议的投票。评：根据期货 市场相关数据，目前市场对9月降息的预期为93%，但是市场更 多的关注本次降息的幅度。美元指数大幅反弹，施压黄金。市 场对9月降息完全定价，但是预期兑现后或出现反转行情。在降 息兑现之前，仍然为偏多走势，但需要注意节奏。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 8.98万吨，周增加1.44万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2275元/吨， 价格暂稳；国内甲醇周产能利用率86.63%，上升1.77%，神华新 疆180万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.75%，周下降0.33%；中国甲醇港口样本库存142.77万吨，周 上升12.84万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存34.11万吨，周增 加0.77万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲 醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场 走强，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差企稳，商谈成交 一般。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力2 ...