Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week-on-week. Due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by recent high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; the daily output was 596,000 tons. From January to May, the output was 90.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The raw coal output was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the daily output was 13.01 million tons. From January to May, the output was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [6]. - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. Among them, residential investment was 2.7731 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.35354 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 170.89 million square meters, a decrease of 21.4%. The completed area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 133.37 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% [7]. - The relevant national authorities stated that 162 billion yuan of the 300 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. Relevant departments are guiding local governments to use the "national subsidy" funds smoothly and orderly to promote the policy to be more effective [7]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in June was announced: the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, the same as last month [7]. - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in the Xingtai area reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, also effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025 [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 97,400 tons, lower than last week's 99,600 tons. The weak demand for steel during the off - season is likely to continue, and the supply and demand will generally maintain a weak balance [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. - The rebar main contract closed at 2992 on Friday, up 7 points on the day and 23 points from last Friday's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 2984, up 11 points. The latest position was 2.164 million lots, an increase of 28,000 lots from last Friday. This week, the funds were not very active, and both the long and short sides were hesitant, showing little change in position and volume. Currently, the daily line has been sideways for 12 trading days, and the price center of the weekly line has slightly moved up for two consecutive weeks, but the momentum is very limited. Next week, continue to pay attention to whether the 3000 - point mark can be effectively held, and there will be greater pressure near this position [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

避险情绪升温，关注震荡格局是否打破 摘 要： 随着中东局势不确定性的持续上升，全球避险情绪升温，关税 领域，部分加增关税落地，全球经济下行压力持续增加，风险资产 承压，不断升级的避险情绪是否带来国债中期震荡区间的突破，需 要持续观察。目前还未看到除了避险情绪之外的动力，需要关注国 内政策取向情况。 5 月份，5 月末，M2 同比增长 7.9%，预期 8.1%，前值 8%。M1 同比增长 2.3%，，预期 1.7%，前值 1.5%。M2 与 M1 的剪刀差为 5.6 个百分点，较上月有所收窄。中国社会融资规模增量累计为 18.63 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.83 万亿元。其中，5 月新增社融 2.29 万 亿元，上一年同期为 2.07 万亿元。规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.8%。从环比看，5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非 制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday. After consecutive contractions in supply, market sentiment has improved, but with the upcoming fourth round of coke price cut, the market remains cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5][33] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday [2][5] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the coal output was 4.0 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. China's crude steel output in May was 86.55 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; and steel output was 127.43 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [7] - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a 10.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [8] - The state has allocated 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner [8] - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the rate unchanged since January. The dot - plot shows two expected interest rate cuts in 2025, and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027 [8] - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in Xingtai also made the same price cuts [9] 3. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia that previously halted or reduced production due to environmental protection and other reasons have not resumed production, and there are new停产 mines this week, resulting in a continued slight reduction in supply. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 85 vehicles, remaining at a low level [33] - On the demand side, coke production decreased slightly. After the previous continuous decline in coal prices, some resources became more cost - effective, leading to appropriate purchases by downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links, which alleviated the inventory pressure on upstream coal mines. This week, the iron water output was 2.4218 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase from last week [2][33] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies include mainly conducting range operations for single - side trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage, and also waiting and seeing for coking profit [3][33]

地缘主导原油短期走势 摘 要： OPEC+维持增产的立场不变,5 月 OPEC+增产未达预期。 美国钻井数经历了长期平台之后的下滑，这意味着美国原 油产量很可能难以维持。前期美伊陆续出现对炼厂为主的 能源基础设施袭击，但尚未对原油生产产生实质影响。在 军事冲突持续的背景下供应受到扰动的预期始终难以证 伪。若后期冲突缓解，地缘溢价有望回落。短期重点关注 美国空袭后伊朗回应情况及伊朗外交成果。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 原油周度跟踪报告 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油大幅上涨。SC2508 周度开 530，最高 582，最低 508，收盘 566，周度涨 45 或 8.82%。08 合约大幅上涨。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+连续三月计划增加产量 OPEC 月报：报告中显 ...

PTA：供需驱动仍弱 摘 要： PTA 方面，尽管福海创和恒力装置检修兑现，不过随 着新装置投产，且 PTA 后续装置检修计划不多，但终端订 单疲软导致下游仅能被动跟涨，需求未实质性改善，织机 印染开工下滑亦削弱补库持续性预期，7 月 PTA 供需仍弱。 成本方面，6 月尽管 PX 检修装置逐步回归，但下游 PTA 因 检修装置重启叠加新装置投产较预期提前，PX 供需预期仍 偏紧，6 月仍存去库预期，短期 PX 支撑仍偏强；原油短期 受地缘左右。PTA 观望或短线交易。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 PTA周度跟踪报告 第 1 章 行情回顾 PTA09 合约震荡偏强。09 合约周度开盘 4820，最高 5044，最低 4694，收盘 4978，周度涨 196 或 4.10%。 图表 1：PTA09 合约价格走势 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2.1 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, mostly predicting a short - term oscillatory trend for various commodities, and suggests corresponding trading strategies based on different market conditions [2][4][5]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Iron Ore - Inventory: The total import iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.9416 million tons, a decrease of 389,800 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1356 million tons, an increase of 123,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 93, an increase of 2 [2]. - Outlook: Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and molten iron production are rising, and short - term high levels are expected to be maintained. There is a possibility of a small increase in ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. Silver - Fed Signal: Fed Governor Waller indicated that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as the July meeting, providing a signal for a possible restart of the easing cycle [2]. - Outlook: The Fed's loosening on interest rate cuts needs close attention. The Middle - East war is fundamentally bearish for silver, but whether gold will drive silver up needs to be observed. The possibility of a differentiated trend between gold and silver should be noted [2]. Treasury Bonds - Interest Rate Changes: Most money market interest rates moved up. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for 1 - day increased by 0.29 BP to 1.3742%, the 7 - day decreased by 5.0 BP to 1.4941% (a new low since October 2024), and the 14 - day increased by 5.51 BP to 1.7319% (a new high in over a month) [4]. - Outlook: The upward movement of funds is bearish for the bond market. Attention should be paid to whether the risk - aversion sentiment further intensifies. The bond market's main logic is unclear, and a medium - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Whether the oscillation boundaries will be broken needs to be monitored [4]. Live Hogs - Market Data: As of June 20, the average live - hog slaughter weight was 123.78 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate was 27.66%, a decrease of 0.61%. The profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 53.42 yuan, a decrease of 25.16 yuan; the profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising was 61.11 yuan, an increase of 9.4 yuan. The piglet price was 445.71 yuan per head, a decrease of 23.34 yuan [4]. - Outlook: The live - hog price was stable with a slight upward trend over the weekend. Northern leading enterprises reduced supply, but slaughter enterprises were cautious in purchasing. It is recommended to buy the LH2601 contract at low prices, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to their slaughter schedules [4]. Palm Oil - Export Data: According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from June 1 - 20 were 759,881 tons, a 16.66% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - Outlook: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical factors, the oil market is oscillating. There are uncertainties, and market participants are cautious. Domestically, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the spot basis is weakly declining. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and attention should be paid to Middle - East geopolitical risks [5]. Soybeans - Argentine Sales: Argentina's soybean sales accelerated last week as the export tax will be raised from 26% to 33% next month. As of June 11, farmers pre - sold 21.35 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, an increase of 1.84 million tons from the previous week, and sold 40.54 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, an increase of 80,000 tons [5]. - Outlook: If the US biodiesel policy is implemented, it will impact domestic and global oil consumption. The domestic soybean supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Interval trading is recommended [5]. Coking Coal - Profitability: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 31 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 68 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 49 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: The supply continued to shrink slightly as some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have not resumed production, and there were new production stoppages this week. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased. Although coke production decreased slightly, some coal resources became more cost - effective after the price decline, and downstream enterprises increased procurement, alleviating the inventory pressure on coal mines. The fourth round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and the market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Rebar - Production and Inventory Data: As of the week of June 19, rebar production was 2.1218 million tons, an increase of 46,100 tons (2.22%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 1.8232 million tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons (0.31%); social inventory was 3.6875 million tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons (1.72%); apparent demand was 2.1919 million tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons (0.35%) [6][8]. - Outlook: This week, supply was strong while demand was weak, but inventory continued to decline. The macro - level Sino - US easing trade has ended, and the Iran - Israel war has pushed up crude oil prices, making the overall commodity market sentiment positive. More than half of the steel mills are profitable, but the losses of short - process steel mills are increasing. Demand has weakened again, and the pessimistic demand expectation remains due to the drag from the real estate sector. The short - term fundamental contradiction of rebar is limited, and the futures price mainly follows the raw material price. Attention should be paid to the support of raw material spot and futures prices, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Gold - Geopolitical Event: On June 21 (Eastern US time), US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," but Iran stated that the Fordow nuclear facility was not severely damaged. A US senior official admitted that the attack caused serious damage but did not destroy the facility [8]. - Outlook: The consequences of the US action are uncertain, and it may either lead to the end of the Middle - East conflict or an escalation of chaos. The gold price movement is relatively flat, but the financial market is笼罩 in an atmosphere of anxiety. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines or trade with a small position based on technical analysis [8]. Crude Oil - Drilling and Export Data: As of the week of June 20, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 438, the lowest since October 2021, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and 47 from the same period last year. Since Israel's air strike on Iran on June 13, Iran's average daily crude oil exports increased by 44% compared to the average of the past 12 months, reaching 2.33 million barrels per day [9]. - Outlook: Iran's oil production and exports have not been significantly affected so far. Although there are voices in Iran suggesting considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it is likely to be a last - resort option. The tense situation has not eased, and there are still uncertainties. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or trade in the short term [9]. Rubber - Raw Material and Capacity Data: The price of Thai raw rubber latex was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump rubber price was 48.05 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of latex for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,300 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex was 13,400 yuan/ton; in Hainan, the corresponding prices were 12,400 yuan/ton and 14,200 yuan/ton. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a 1.56% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a 2.69% increase. The average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 47.42 days, a 1.14 - day increase; for full - steel tire sample enterprises, it was 41.89 days, a 0.15 - day increase [10]. - Outlook: The main rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are not in the seasonally rainy period, and although rubber tapping is affected, it is in line with expectations. There have been no unexpected changes in supply. After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the overall demand has not changed much. Domestic downstream industries have high finished - product inventories and lack the motivation to continuously purchase raw materials. The geopolitical situation has also affected the crude oil price and, in turn, the rubber futures price. An oscillatory trading strategy is recommended [10]. PTA - Price and Supply Data: PXCFR was reported at $888/ton, and the PX - N spread was $255/ton. The price of East China PTA was 5,170 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost was 4,960 yuan/ton. The operating rate of China's PX industry decreased by 0.2% to 85.6%, and the Asian PX industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 74.3%. Some domestic PX plants had load fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance in July [11]. - Outlook: The PXN spread has support. The shutdown of some PTA plants and the reduction of operating rates have offset the impact of the restart of some plants, and the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved marginally. Due to the uncertainty of the crude oil price, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or trade in the short term [11][12]. Methanol - Market and Inventory Data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. China's methanol port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous week; the sample production enterprise inventory was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons; the sample enterprise order backlog was 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons. The methanol operating rate was 88.65%, an increase of 0.76% from the previous week; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.73%, a decrease of 0.41% [12]. - Outlook: The coal price is expected to be stable, and the domestic methanol operating rate is expected to remain high. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and imported methanol arrivals are expected to increase this week, which may lead to port inventory accumulation. The inland methanol market is consolidating, and the port market basis is stable, but the buying sentiment is weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at the 2,610 - yuan level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or short - sell on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - Price and Production Data: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash was 1,338 yuan/ton, showing a downward oscillatory trend. Weekly soda ash production was 753,700 tons, an increase of 1.84% from the previous week; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.726 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The float glass start - up rate was 75.34%, a decrease of 0.08%; the national average price of float glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.29% [13]. - Outlook: The float glass start - up rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. The East China market is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and some enterprises in Jiangsu have loosened prices. The mid - and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The domestic soda ash market is performing averagely, with weak trading sentiment. Downstream demand is lukewarm, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious, with most purchases at low prices for immediate needs. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at the 1,185 - yuan level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or short - sell on rebounds [13]. PVC - Price and Supply Data: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous week. There are new production plans for Shaanxi Jintai Phase II and Fujian Wanhua Phase II, increasing the supply pressure. PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74%. The average profit per ton of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 494 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; the average profit per ton of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan [14]. - Outlook: The scale of PVC plant maintenance has increased, but the supply remains high. The profit is poor, and there are still expectations of new production capacity coming online. Demand is stable, and exports have entered the off - season. The increase in the crude oil price has put pressure on the PVC spot market, and the price increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4,890 - yuan level for the 09 contract. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or go long in the short term [14].

期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】Mysteel卫星数据显示，2024年6月9日-6 月15日期间， 澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量 1226.2万吨，环比下降25.9万吨，库存连续三期下滑，绝对量 处于二季度以来的中等偏下水平。评：综合来看，铁矿石供应 压力仍较大，需求端逐步放缓但尚有支撑，铁矿上下空间均有 限，不过在终端需求持续走弱情况下，后续产业链或面临负反 馈风险。操作上建议铁矿2509合约维持逢高沽空思路，参考压 力位730元/吨。 【短评-原油】EIA报告显示，美国至6月13日当周除却战略 储备的商业原油库存减少1147.3万桶至4.21亿桶，汽油库 存 20.9万桶，06月13日当周美国国内原油产量增加0.3万桶至 1343.1万桶/日；俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克向记者，如果 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到 1.056亿桶/日的峰值，2030年小幅回落。与此同时，全球产能 预计到2030年将增加超500万桶/日，达1.147亿桶/日。预计 2025年全球石油供应将增加180万桶/日，将2025年平均石油需 求增长预期下调至72万桶/日，将2026年平均石油需求增长预期 下调至74万桶/日；API数据：当周API原油库存大幅下降1013.3 万桶；据央视报道，当地时间6月17日，乌克兰基辅军政管理局 负责人特卡琴科表示，当日凌晨俄罗斯对基辅及周边地区发动 了大规模袭击，此次袭击击中了居民楼，造成严重损失；据新 华社报道，欧盟委员会6月17日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027年年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油；据伊朗国 家通讯社报道，革命卫队周二宣布向以色列发射"更强大"的 新一轮导弹，一名高级军官称无人机群即将来袭。评：IEA月报 预测年度供应宽松。市场注意力集中在了中东地缘层面，目前 紧张局势仍未得到缓和。短期短多思路。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报866美元/吨，PX-N242美元/吨； 华东PTA报4980元/吨 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-白银】 最新一轮的以色列与伊朗冲突对10年期美 国国债造成的抛售压力可能会产生持久影响。自上周五双方冲 突以来，受油价飙升和预算赤字担忧的推动，10年期美债收益 率已上涨逾10个基点。评：油价走高，美国通胀存在持续走高 的风险。全球经济下行压力持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。 地缘政治激化，也利空白银。但是白银是否会跟随黄金上涨， 仍然需要注意。市场关注美联储降息预期。白银短期震荡等待 会议指引。关注黄金走势是否对白银有影响。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料稳中有涨。杯胶上涨0.4泰铢/公斤 至47.45泰铢/公斤，胶水持平，仍然为56.75泰铢/公斤；云南 原料也出现了明显的上涨。制干胶胶水上涨0.2-0.4元/公斤至 13.1-13.3元/公斤；青岛库存增加1400吨至60.69万吨，增加 0.23%。其中保税区库存下降1.87%至8.39万吨。一般贸易库存 增加0.58%至52.29万吨。评：产区新胶释放缓慢，成本存一定 支撑，需求端暂未有明显改善迹象。阶段性原油对相关品种影 响比重变大，偏震荡偏多对待。 投资咨询中心 2025年06月17日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shi ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1357元/吨，震荡下行 趋势；纯碱开工率86.81%，个别企业负荷调整，窄幅增加；纯 碱厂家总库存168.6万吨，周上升5.9万吨；浮法玻璃开工率 75.68%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价11197元/吨，环比上 日-3元/吨；全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6968.5万重箱，环比 下降0.1%。评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，沙河市场 部分小板价格下调，市场需求乏力，交投偏淡。国内纯碱市场 走势偏弱，成交一般，装置运行正常，个别企业负荷恢复，产 量稳步提升，下游需求不温不火，按需为主，低价成交为主。 预计纯碱09合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力1170一线，建议观望 或反弹短线做空。 【短评-白银】 4月欧元区工业与贸易遭遇显著冲击，这很 可能是受美国关税政策的影响，同时也挑战了经济学家此前关 于"欧元区在经济动荡中表现稳健"的观点。欧盟统计局发布 的数据显示，4月欧盟工业产出环比下降2.4%，远超市场预期的 1.7%跌幅，且工业各领域均出现萎缩。评：全球经济下行压力 持续加大，经济基本面利空白银。地缘政治激化，也利空白 银。但是白银是否会跟 ...