Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Fed's Beige Book indicates rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks and driving up gold prices. The market awaits US non - farm data, with gold likely to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - Short - term steel demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - For coking coal, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term [3]. - Silicon iron cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term [4]. - Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. - US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. - Rubber supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - Methanol domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term [8]. - PTA supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. - Short - term hog prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term, and relevant trading strategies can be considered [10]. - Domestic and imported soybeans' prices are under pressure, and the US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil, and trading should be short - selling on rallies [13]. - LLDPE prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term [14]. Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's Beige Book shows rising inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, increasing stagflation risks, which is the driving force for gold's rise. The market awaits US non - farm data, and gold may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: US employment data shows economic pressure, and some Fed officials signal rate cuts. The market awaits non - farm data, and the impact of gold's fluctuations on silver should be noted [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows crude oil inventory accumulation. The market is concerned about OPEC+ potentially canceling the second - layer production cuts ahead of schedule. The short - term driving force is weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Steel**: Short - term demand improvement is limited. Steel prices may fluctuate narrowly, and the demand recovery will determine the later trend [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the demand from high - level hot metal production provides support. It should be viewed with a range - bound perspective in the short term, and the 2601 contract can be traded within the 1050 - 1200 range [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is supported, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price center will move down in the long term. It's advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities [4]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Bond issuance may accelerate in the third quarter, affecting long - term bonds. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and long - term bonds may fluctuate bearishly [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: Domestic new - season soybeans are expected to increase in production, and the continuous release of state - reserve old grains and weak downstream demand put pressure on prices. The US crop growth and international relations should be monitored [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The market expects a bearish MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil. The domestic import profit is in a deeper inversion. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [13]. Chemicals - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing but slower than usual, and demand is weak. It should be treated with a range - bound view [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic production is rising, and the port inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 2405. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is weakly stable and may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 1290. It's advisable to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and its price should be treated with a bearish - fluctuating view [9]. Others - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Prices are weak, and the L2601 contract may fluctuate downward in the short term, with resistance at 7255. It's advisable to short - sell on rallies [14]. - **Hogs**: Short - term prices are weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It's advisable to short the near - month contract and long the far - month contract or for farmers to sell - hedge according to the slaughter schedule [10].

重点品种： 【短评-原油】国家能源局局长王宏志9月1日在京会见来访 的哈萨克斯坦能源部部长叶尔兰·阿肯热诺夫，双方就油气、 可再生能源、电力等领域合作深入交换意见。据消息人士和路 透计算，哈萨克斯坦8月份原油产量环比增长2%，达到188万桶/ 日；OPEC+主要成员国料将于周日开会讨论产量政策。评：因 OPEC+增产预期，供应存在过剩预期，然原油库存未累积。近期 地缘层面中东也门胡赛、俄乌问题，宏观层面美国关税上诉等 均给市场带来复杂影响，当前驱动主线不太强。短线或观望为 佳。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量 7.54万吨，环比+24.83%；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2235元/吨，上 升5元/吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率84.84%，上升1.07%，宁夏宝 丰150万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.99%，周上升0.25%；中国甲醇港口样本库存129.93万吨，周 上升22.33万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存33.34万吨，周增 加2.26万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲 醇港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场 持稳，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1285元/吨，近期震荡 下行；纯碱周度产量71.91万吨，环比-6.78%；纯碱厂家总库存 186.75万吨，周下降2.27%；浮法玻璃开工率75.48%，周度 +0.14%；全国浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比上日+1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6256.6万重箱，环比下降1.64%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场操作气氛偏 淡，企业多数趋稳操作，浙江主流企业出厂价格走高，中下游 操作仍偏谨慎，刚需为主。国内纯碱市场走势偏弱，纯碱企业 库存高位，装置运行波动不大，个别企业负荷提升，下游需求 一般，按需为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力 1305一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】欧央行行长拉加德表示，2%的通胀目标已经 达成，将继续采取必要措施确保通胀得到控制，价格保持稳 定。欧元区8月制造业PMI终值从7月份的49.8升至50.7的三年多 高点，高于初值50.5，自2022年中期以来首次扩张。评：欧元 区经济强劲，对美元形成一定施压。市场担心美联储独立性受 到挑战，担心美国经济再度陷入通胀风险，黄金避险属性再度 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The weekly average spot price of the domestic float glass market was 1150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.88 yuan/ton from the previous period. In the North China market, the overall operation was mediocre, with some manufacturers slightly reducing prices or offering certain preferential policies, and the shipment situation varied. In the East China market, the spot price showed mixed trends. Some enterprises loosened prices at the beginning of the week to relieve shipment pressure, while some low - priced enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices, and the production and sales improved significantly [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of August 28, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.48%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, flat month - on - month. A float production line started production this week, and the output may increase slightly. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 188.41 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.43 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 109.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.91 yuan/ton month - on - month; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 25.66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.86 yuan/ton month - on - month [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 250340,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, showing an improvement in the manufacturing prosperity level [14]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in the North China market was average, and the inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The overall shipment in the East China market was acceptable, and the inventory decreased month - on - month [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of August 29, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 750,795, a decrease of 33,442, and the short positions were 948,565, a decrease of 32,202. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is stable. This week, a float production line started production, so the output may increase slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. The overall shipment in the East China market is acceptable, and the inventory has decreased month - on - month. Some enterprises promoted sales by increasing prices during the week, driving production and sales. The downstream replenished goods in moderation, but most purchases were for rigid demand. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, and the upper pressure on the 01 contract is at the 1200 level. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] Core Viewpoints - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, and if Trump's policies fail to boost the US economy effectively, the probability of the US entering stagflation will increase, which may further weaken the US's competitiveness and push up the price of US gold. Currently, US gold is around the key level of 3,500, and its further trend needs continuous observation [2] - Recent economic data shows that the US economy remains resilient. If there are significant interest rate cuts, the probability of rising inflation will increase, and the US economy and the US dollar will face the risk of further capital outflows. At that time, safe-haven assets will strengthen [3] - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. Due to the increasing expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact on the Fed's independence, the US dollar index has been weakening, leading to a significant appreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate. However, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has not had a continuous impact on precious metals, and the short-term fluctuations caused by the exchange rate are limited [4] - The market believes that a September interest rate cut is highly likely, and in the future, the market will focus on the magnitude of the rate cut. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold, causing US gold to rise again. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may still be synchronized and need continuous observation [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the price of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver may be synchronized, but the upward trend of silver is affected by the fluctuations of gold [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, sued President Trump over his attempt to fire her. The US second-quarter GDP and core PCE price index data were released, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned the interview process for the Fed chair position [13][15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US economic data shows high resilience, with positive growth in GDP, retail sales, and core PCE price index, although there are some weaknesses in non-manufacturing and consumption [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US and the EU have reached a new trade agreement. The US may also increase tariffs on chips and semiconductors [20] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Initial jobless claims decreased, and the service industry PMI reached a new high. The price of crude oil was affected by production cuts, and the prices of domestic and foreign copper showed different trends. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September, high-risk preference assets may strengthen [21] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate passively tracks the US dollar index. The weakening of the US dollar has led to the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, but its impact on gold is limited [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market believes a September interest rate cut is likely, and the focus will be on the rate cut magnitude. The influence on the Fed's independence has increased the safe-haven property of gold. The subsequent trends of gold and silver need continuous observation [30]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels in September, and there is a possibility of further production increases in the fourth quarter. With the ongoing geopolitical issues such as the US warning to Russia and the continuous attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][29]. 3. Summary of Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review The crude oil market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The SC2510 contract opened at 494, reached a high of 500, a low of 478, and closed at 485, with a weekly decline of 8.4 or 1.70% [3]. 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: In July 2025, OPEC+ total crude oil production averaged 41.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 335,000 barrels per day compared to June. OPEC+ has been increasing production for four consecutive months since April, with a cumulative increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day. On August 3, OPEC+ decided to further increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule. If the planned September production increase is implemented, the cumulative increase since April will reach 2.47 million barrels per day, close to 2.5% of global demand [5][6]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In July 2025, Russia's oil production increased by 98,000 barrels per day to 9.12 million barrels per day, 67,000 barrels per day higher than the OPEC+ plan. Traders expect India to increase its Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September compared to August. From January - May 2025, Russia's crude oil exports to China were 40.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. Russia plans to increase its annual crude oil supply to China to over 100 million tons, a growth of about 15% [7]. - **US**: As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, an increase of 57,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to be 13.28 million barrels per day in 2026. The expected growth in US crude oil demand in 2025 is 130,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 30,000 barrels per day [11]. - **Supply from the Americas**: OPEC has lowered its supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ oil - producing countries, expecting an increase of about 630,000 barrels per day in 2026. The IEA has raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, mainly due to OPEC+'s production increase decision. The EIA expects global oil production to be 105.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of April 2025, OECD's crude oil and liquid commercial inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 822 million barrels, a decrease of 1.616 million barrels from the previous week [18]. - **Consumption**: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and adjusts the 2026 forecast from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA has lowered its 2025 demand growth forecast to 680,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.88 million barrels per day, a decrease of 328,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 94.60%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ plans to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels in September, and there is a possibility of further production increases in the fourth quarter. With the ongoing geopolitical issues such as the US warning to Russia and the continuous attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][29].

关注长端债券机会，注意把控节奏 摘 要： 我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩张，中国 8 月官方制造业 PMI、非制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI 分别为 49.4%、50.3%和 50.5%，环 比升 0.1、0.2 和 0.3 个百分点。九三阅兵在即，我国国际影响力 将进一步加强，离岸人民币汇率大幅升值，国内经济景气度的不断 上升，进一步提振风险偏好。下半年规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政 策性金融工具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开 发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其 中。如果下半年外围政策有任何变动，国内各种政策可以马上出台， 以保证经济复苏的趋势持续进行。 最近，多家中小银行宣布下调人民币存款利率，降幅达 10 到 20 个基点。近日，江苏银行、南京银行等多家银行宣布调整 3 年期 定期存款利率。央行新增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和 鼓励金融机构加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的 经营主体特别是小微企业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农 户的信贷支持力度。目前从流动性及货币政策方面，与央行发布第 二季度货币政策执行报告提出，下一阶段要落实落 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak balance with supply and demand, and the cost still provides support. Next week, steel prices may adjust within a narrow range, and the pattern of repeated ups and downs will continue. The market should be treated as weakly volatile, and patiently wait for opportunities for a bottom - rebound [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Market sentiment was average, with the game between long - and short - term factors and fundamentals. This week, steel prices showed a volatile downward trend, and the price center of gravity shifted down compared with last week. The national average price of rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire decreased by 9 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in the Northeast region, all other regions declined slightly, with a decline ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2][3] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, supporting the construction of world - class city clusters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, and the total issuance of local government bonds was 670.36 billion yuan. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased, and the estimated national daily output of steel also increased. As of the week of August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal increased. Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates [5][6] 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94,400 tons, lower than last week's 94,800 tons. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to be weak, downstream terminals purchased on demand, and merchants' willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. The short - term market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [9] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current steel demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term. The increase in construction steel output is expected to slow down. The steel market is in a weak balance, and the cost still provides support. The steel price may adjust within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of the disk, most black commodities closed down, and the iron ore main contract rose slightly. The rebar main contract 2601 showed a downward trend, with the center of gravity shifting down. It should be treated as weakly volatile, waiting for a bottom - rebound opportunity. Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - screw spread, and steel profit, and a wide - straddle consolidation for option strategies [29]

Group 1: Coal and Steel - The daily coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.64 to 46.09 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.99%, a decrease of 1.18%. Coke inventory increased by 0.48 to 610.07 tons, and the available days increased by 0.02 to 10.78 days. Coking coal inventory decreased by 0.46 to 811.85 tons, and the available days increased by 0.18 to 13.25 days. Injection coal inventory decreased by 0.14 to 423.32 tons, and the available days increased by 0.08 to 12.37 days. Before the parade, coal mine production tightened, and coke production declined slightly under production restrictions in some areas. The short - term coal futures market is supported, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery after the parade [1]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240.13 tons, a decrease of 0.62 tons from last week and an increase of 19.24 tons compared to last year. The steel industry has policy support, but the inventory of rebar is accumulating. The decline space of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [4]. Group 2: Livestock - As of August 29, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.37 kg, a decrease of 0.01 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate was 30.18%, an increase of 0.04%. The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 210.07 yuan per head, an increase of 4.66 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 7.85 yuan per head, an increase of 1.34 yuan per head. The price of piglets was 342.86 yuan per head, a decrease of 21.43 yuan per head. The price of live pigs rebounded slightly due to reduced supply from some scale enterprises and increased demand. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions and for farmers to choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [2]. Group 3: Minerals - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9007.19 tons, a decrease of 58.28 tons from the previous period; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills was 296.10 tons, a decrease of 1.74 tons from the previous period; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.42 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous period. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased slightly. The total supply is relatively stable, and the demand for iron ore is expected to recover after the parade [5]. Group 4: Oils and Fats - Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in September at $954.71 per ton, higher than $910.91 in August. The export tax on crude palm oil will increase from $74 per ton in August to $124 per ton. Palm oil prices are expected to decline in the short term and operate weakly, but the downward space is limited due to the approaching consumption season [6]. Group 5: Chemicals - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 7 yuan per ton to 2225 yuan per ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.07% to 84.84%. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [7]. - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 7 yuan per ton to 7354 yuan per ton. The weekly LLDPE output decreased by 2.63% to 26.83 tons. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in China decreased to 1290 yuan per ton. The weekly soda ash output decreased by 6.78% to 71.91 tons. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [9]. Group 6: Precious Metals - The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, reaching a new high since February 2025. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. - Concerns about the Fed's independence and the risk of stagflation in the US economy have increased the safe - haven property of gold. The mid - term trend of gold needs further observation [10]. Group 7: Energy - As of August 29, the number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 1 to 412. OPEC+ will maintain a large increase in production in September, and the demand for traditional fuels in the US is expected to weaken. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10][12]. - The cumulative asphalt output in August was 245 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from the previous month. The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to reduced demand caused by rainfall [12]. Group 8: Rubber - The price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht per kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.5 Thai baht per kg. The supply of rubber is increasing, but the demand has not improved significantly. The rubber market is expected to fluctuate [13].