Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including methanol, crude oil, iron ore, etc., with the overall market influenced by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [1][2][4]. - Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be volatile in the short - term, while others face downward pressure or are affected by specific events like tariff hikes [1][4][5]. 3. Commodity - Specific Summaries Methanol - Market data: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2560 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; port inventory is 61.61 tons, down 15.77 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 31.15 tons, down 1.62 tons weekly; order backlog is 22.33 tons, down 1.28 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 86.21%, up 2.51% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 75.06%, up 0.16% weekly [1]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate in the short - term with resistance at 2470. Suggestion is to observe or short - sell [1]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of April 4, US active drilling rigs are 489, up 5 from the previous week and down 19 from the same period last year. OPEC+ will increase supply by 411,000 barrels per day in May [2]. - Outlook: Short - term risks need to be released. Suggestion is to short - sell on rallies [2]. Iron Ore - Market data: SGX iron ore dropped 3.9% during the Tomb - sweeping Festival [4]. - Outlook: Supply is recovering, and the market is affected by tariff concerns. There is a risk of price decline after the domestic market opens [4]. 螺纹钢 - Market data: On April 3, 2025, the US imposed a 34% tariff on China, with a cumulative 54% tariff this year and a 45% increase on steel and aluminum products [5]. - Outlook: Prices are likely to weaken in the short - term. In the long - term, steel mill profits may remain low [5]. Treasury Bonds - Market data: China will impose a 34% tariff on US imports starting April 10, 2025 [5]. - Outlook: Expected to rise due to monetary easing expectations and risk - aversion. Suggestion is to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of April 4, the average slaughter weight is 123.91 kg, up 0.01; weekly slaughter rate is 27.92%, up 0.01%;外购仔猪养殖 profit is 104.86 yuan/head, down 15.75 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 131.97 yuan/head, up 10.1 yuan/head; piglet price is 533.33 yuan/head, up 4.76 yuan/head [6]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to adjust weakly. Farmers are advised to hedge when selling [6]. Palm Oil - Market data: Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 5 are 131,600 tons, down 6.44% month - on - month. The market expects inventory to reach 1.56 million tons, up 3% [7]. - Outlook: Suggestion is to short - sell on rallies. Attention should be paid to policies and inventory changes [7]. Soda Ash - Market data: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1471.5 yuan/ton, showing a slow decline; weekly production is 71.3 tons, up 3.3%; total inventory is 170.14 tons, up 4.38% [8]. - Outlook: Expected to oscillate in the short - term with resistance at 1400. Suggestion is to observe or short - sell [8]. PTA - Market data: In 2024, US clothing imports were $83.7 billion, with about $61 billion from Asian countries [9]. - Outlook: Short - term price follows crude oil. Suggestion is to short - sell at high levels [9]. Gold - Market data: US non - farm payrolls increased by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate is 4.2% [10]. - Outlook: Maintains a bullish view. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations [10].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在白宫签署两项关于所谓 "对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴设立10%的"最低 基准关税"，该关税将于美国东部时间4月5日凌晨0时01分生 效。评：关税政策落地，通胀预期或持续上升，利多贵金属。 避险及通胀均有利于贵金属，但黄金不可过分看多。贵金属震 荡偏多，等待美国就业数据指引。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1492元/吨，价格暂 稳；纯碱开工83.8%，环比上日持平；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯碱厂家总库存163万吨，环比下降3.42%； 浮法玻璃开工率75.42%，周度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价1269 元/吨，环比上日+2元/吨；全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 6701.2万重箱，环比下降3.52%。评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，华东 市场交投一般，企业出货价多向稳，需求边际未有改善，加工 厂在订单弱及回款差双重压力下操作谨慎，刚需拿货为主。国 内纯碱市场走势弱，装置运行稳定，下游需求低价补库，维持 正常库存,贸易商相对谨慎，成交一般。预计纯碱05合约短期震 荡运行，上方压力 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年3月28 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加603.7万桶；同期美国汽油库存 减少162.8万桶；馏分油库存减少1.1万桶。评：市场为美国周 三公布关税计划做准备，隔夜盘面小幅调整。整体上，补偿性 减产，对超产行为的惩罚性措施，确保增产过程中不因成员国 违规导致供应失控，可延后供应实质增加的时间。对伊朗、委 内瑞拉或俄罗斯的制裁是当前供应端主要担忧的因素。制裁威 胁仍在，保持逢低做多思路。 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-50元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-26元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-98元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利24元/吨。评：供 应端，焦炭继续提降声音弱化，目前焦企利润依旧不佳，随着 前期焦炉检修结束，部分焦企提产，焦炭供应小幅增加。需求 端，铁水产量高位继续增加，钢厂补库意愿提升，上游继续小 幅去库。总体来看，旺季现实负反馈发生概率较低，下游仍有 补库需求，焦炭基本面矛盾边际缓解，但中长期需求预期不 佳，反弹高度有限。需求支撑有限 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-螺纹钢】3月31日，国内钢材市场偏弱运行，唐山 迁安普方坯资源出厂含税跌10报3030元/吨。国内4家钢厂下调 建筑钢材出厂价20-30元/吨。全国31个主要城市20mm三级抗震 螺纹钢均价3342元/吨，较上个交易日下跌23元/吨。评：综合 来看，钢材需求复苏偏慢，且不稳定，而供给继续扩张，市场 情绪谨慎，贸易商优惠出货，考虑到节前下游有补库预期，短 期钢价弱势震荡为主，难以深跌。 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 电话：400-822-1758 【短评-黄金】美联储巴尔金表示，不急于降息，正如美联 储主席所说，拭目以待情况如何发展。美联储威廉姆斯表示， 关税的全面影响可能会在很长一段时间内逐步显现，需要关注 数据以衡量关税的影响。货币政策的定位一直非常恰当，美联 储当前的政策水平处于有利地位，预计经济将继续增长，但增 速将低于去年。评 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the production start - up shows a high - level increase. The domestic soda ash production start - up is expected to recover this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass increasing. Against the background of a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has decreased from a high level, but it is difficult to achieve continuous inventory reduction. It is expected that the soda ash price will fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1410 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak and fluctuating trend, with lukewarm trading. The weekly soda ash output was 690,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,900 tons or 5.81%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.52%. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.63 million tons, a decrease of 57,800 tons. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises showed a downward trend, remaining at more than 8 days, a decrease of more than 2 days [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of March 27, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.52%. The theoretical profit of the Chinese dual - ton soda ash by the combined - alkali method was 211.60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the Chinese ammonia - alkali method soda ash was - 52.21 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of March 27, the daily melting volume of national photovoltaic glass was 91,790 tons/day. It is expected that the industry's inventory will continue to decline this week. The national float glass output was 1.1083 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.14%. The average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry decreased by 0.12 percentage points week - on - week. The output is expected to decrease this week [15]. 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 27, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 842,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,800 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 787,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons [18]. 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of March 28, the long positions of the top 20 members of the soda ash 2505 contract were 549,206, an increase of 35,919, and the short positions were 728,129, an increase of 55,353. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [21]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the production start - up shows a high - level increase. The domestic soda ash production start - up is expected to recover this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be relatively stable, with the expected output of downstream float glass decreasing and the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass increasing. Against the background of a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has decreased from a high level, but it is difficult to achieve continuous inventory reduction. It is expected that the soda ash price will fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 1410 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - losses [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market will return to economic fundamentals and policy expectations after the positive news during the meetings has been digested. Attention should be paid to subsequent economic data and policy expectations, which are key factors affecting the bond market [2]. - The economic growth target for 2025 is 5%, and the CPI target is 2%. The government debt combination for 2025 includes a 4% deficit rate, 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points from last year. Fiscal policy is the main force in economic regulation, and its strengthening may weaken the loosening of monetary policy [2]. - The bond market may gradually return to economic fundamentals as the impact of the stock market on the bond market weakens after the Two Sessions [3]. - Do not be overly bearish on the bond market and wait for policy guidance [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - **1.1 Treasury Bond Futures Market Review** - Due to the upcoming US tariff policy, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen. The stock market rebound after the Spring Festival has ended, and the stock - bond seesaw has intensified bond market fluctuations. Recently, the impact of the stock market on the bond market has weakened. With reduced exchange - rate pressure, the expectation of monetary loosening has increased again, and the bond market may gradually return to economic fundamentals [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The 3rd Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held from March 5th to March 11th, with main agendas including reviewing the government work report, examining the draft national economic and social development plan for 2025, and the draft central and local budgets for 2025 [13]. - The government will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, and may cut the reserve - requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner to maintain sufficient liquidity [13]. - Since February, at least 7 out of 19 private banks have lowered or are in the process of lowering deposit rates, and after the reduction, only the 3 - year fixed - deposit of Huatong Bank can reach a 2.9% interest rate [14]. - In February, CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year [14]. - In the first two months of this year, China's goods trade started steadily, with the export scale reaching a record high for the same period. The total value of goods trade imports and exports was 6.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, but an increase of 1.7% after excluding non - comparable factors [14]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **3.1 Economic Fundamentals** - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption have been implemented, and detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chains have been introduced. In February, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index rose to 50.4% and 51.1% respectively. The economic data shows that economic resilience still exists, but there is still deflation pressure, and consumption stimulus is still necessary [15]. - **3.2 Policy Aspect** - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, increasing the fiscal deficit rate, expenditure intensity, and the scale of government bond issuance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and in February, new RMB loans increased significantly, providing strong support for the real economy [20]. - **3.3 Capital Aspect** - The tight capital situation eased on February 27th, and the pressure on the capital side has recently weakened, which supports the bond market. With the weakening of exchange - rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary loosening may increase. Currently, the capital level is similar to that in the third quarter of last year, and the year - end capital disturbance factors have basically disappeared [20]. - **3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect** - The government debt combination in 2025 leads to a significant increase in the broad deficit rate. As of March 3rd, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds have been issued, with about 1.9 trillion yuan issued in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of about 97%. The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, and the issuance of special bonds has also picked up speed recently [23]. - **3.5 Sentiment Aspect** - The stock - bond ratio has started to decline from a historical high but remains at a high level, indicating that the cost - effectiveness of allocating to the bond market is currently low, and institutions are more likely to focus on the stock market. Although the stock - bond ratio has slightly improved recently, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the previous period. The bond market is still in a bullish trend in terms of economic fundamentals, but it is greatly disturbed by the stock market in the short term and may return to economic fundamentals later [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Spring Festival, the A - share market has warmed up, and the stock - bond seesaw logic has continued. Affected by fiscal bond issuance, the capital side has been continuously tight, and the bond market has continued to decline. Currently, the downward momentum of the bond market has weakened, and the market is paying attention to the future trend of the stock market and policy expectations. The bond market will gradually return to economic fundamentals [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - PX has entered the intensive maintenance season, with its load gradually declining and a promising de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. Given its low valuation, the price support for PX is expected to strengthen. For PTA, the 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned this week, leading to increased load and decreased processing fees. The terminal demand negatively impacts the improvement of PTA processing fees and sentiment, limiting its rebound space. PTA should be treated with a sideways trading approach [2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA05 contract showed a sideways movement. The weekly opening price was 4872, the highest was 4948, the lowest was 4824, and the closing price was 4894, with a weekly increase of 16 or 0.33% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Short - term Boost for PX, Intensive Maintenance from March to April - In 2024, the commissioning of new domestic PX production capacity is coming to an end, with only a 3 - million - ton new capacity plan for Yulongdao. There is no new project expected in 2025. It is estimated that the domestic PX output from January to March 2025 will be 9.51 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.21%, and the import from January to February 2025 will be 1.395 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The current PX开工率 in China is 85.7% (- 0.5%), and in Asia is 77.4% (- 0.1%). The PX processing fee on Friday was 203 US dollars per ton (down 12 from last week). Multiple domestic and overseas PX plants have maintenance or production reduction plans. With the entry into the intensive maintenance season in late March, the PX load is declining, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter is promising. Supported by the short - term high load of polyester and its low valuation, the price support for PX is strengthening [5] 2.2 Limited Improvement in PTA Supply, Processing Fees Fluctuating at a Low Level - It is estimated that the domestic PTA output from January to February 2025 will be 11.81 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. The average monthly load in February was around 79.2%, a slight decrease of 0.4% from January. The PTA load has increased to 79.3%, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The current PTA开工率 in China is 76.8% (+ 3.2%), and the spot processing fee on Friday was 231 yuan per ton (down 47 from last week). The 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned, increasing the load and reducing the processing fee. The PTA supply - demand pattern has improved recently, and attention should be paid to the implementation of PTA plant maintenance in April, which also affects the PX de - stocking intensity [8] 2.3 High Polyester Load May Be Lower Than Last Year - It is estimated that the domestic polyester output from January to February 2025 will be 11.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 74% (unchanged), the texturing load is 85% (+ 1%), the polyester开工率 is 91.5% (+ 2.7%), and the direct - spinning filament load is 94.9% (+ 2.3%). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY are 25.5 days (+ 0.4), 31.5 days (+ 1.0), and 33.1 days (- 0.5) respectively. The downstream weaving and texturing operations remained stable this week. Currently, the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor post - holiday orders have led to the weaving operation reaching a peak, which is generally lower than last year. The sustainability of the operation depends on the order strength. If the orders remain weak, the operation may be reduced. In the polyester sector, although there was a concentrated restocking by downstream customers during the filament promotion this week, the strength was limited. With the decline in raw material prices, the downstream stocking mentality is cautious, and the filament inventory continues to accumulate slightly. In terms of textile and clothing exports from January to February 2025, the cumulative export was 42.88 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The export of textiles was 21.22 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the export of clothing was 21.66 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The two 10% tariff increases by the US have put pressure on textile and clothing export expectations. Overall, the PTA industry operation has dropped to a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, while the polyester plant operation is acceptable. Affected by the high grey fabric inventory and few orders, the overall downstream load recovery is lower than expected, and the domestic demand shows no sign of improvement [9][11] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - As PX has entered the intensive maintenance season, its load is gradually declining, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter is promising. With its low valuation, the price support for PX is expected to strengthen. For PTA, the 2.5 - million - ton Hainan Yisheng plant restarted as planned this week, increasing the load and reducing the processing fee. Attention should be paid to the implementation of PTA plant maintenance in April. The high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor post - holiday orders have led to the weaving operation reaching a peak, which is generally lower than last year. If the orders remain weak, the operation may be reduced. Overall, the terminal demand negatively impacts the improvement of PTA processing fees and sentiment, limiting its rebound space. A sideways trading approach should be adopted [13]

原油短期缺乏下跌基础 摘 要： 供应的变局一方面是 OPEC+有望逐步释放自愿减产产 量，另一方面是补偿性减产，对超产行为的惩罚性措施， 确保增产过程中不因成员国违规导致供应失控。补偿性减 产计划可延后供应增加的时间（测算直到 6 月份供应才能 增加），但不会改变供应增加的事实。不确定性还在美国- 伊朗、美国-委内瑞拉制裁力度之上，甚至对俄罗斯的制裁。 短期制裁威胁仍在，短期缺乏下跌基础。技术看，盘面修 复补偿性减产后，进入调整，等待技术调整后的低位偏多 机会。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：逢低做多 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 原油震荡偏强。SC2505 周度开 533，最高 545，最低 530，收盘 542，周度涨 7.8 或 1.46%。 05 合约震荡偏强。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPE ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 猪价短期震荡运行，中长期偏强运行 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，养殖端出栏或无明显调整，尤其规模 企业目前出栏进度尚可，无明显增减，供应端变化不明显。 从需求端来看，天气转暖，节日库存消化陆续结束， 且清明节在即，需求或小幅增加，但需求恢复缓慢，且同 比二育进场数量不多。需求端或小幅增加，但利好有限。 综合来看，预计均价重心小幅上移。生猪市场供应端 出栏或无明显增加，月初开始，清明节前少量备货，尤其 南方祭祀活动，需求端缓慢恢复，略有支撑，价格或稳定 偏强。操作上建议短多交易为主。 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 生猪专题报告 1.生猪 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report [1][8] - Report Date: March 31, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. The market's expectation of production cuts increased, boosting sentiment, but due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [2][4]. - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak while supply expansion pressure remains, and market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices rose first and then fell, with the average national rebar price increasing by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the active production cuts of Xinjiang steel mills, the market's expectation of production cuts increased, and the spot market saw both volume and price increase. However, due to poor demand persistence, prices slightly declined. Next week, inventory will continue to fall, and there is an expectation of restocking in the spot market [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 23, Premier Li Qiang stated that more proactive macro - policies will be implemented, and counter - cyclical adjustment efforts will be further increased [6]. - On March 24, the Ministry of Finance announced that the 2025 fiscal policy will be more proactive, supporting the expansion of domestic demand [6]. - The vice - secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the imbalance between supply and demand is the main contradiction in the industry, and establishing a new capacity governance mechanism is the key [6]. - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was - 1.55 billion yuan [6]. - As of March 24, the number of national automobile trade - in applications exceeded 1.5 million, and the number of home appliance and electric bicycle trade - ins also increased significantly [6]. - In April, the production schedule of household air conditioners is 24 million units, a 9.1% increase year - on - year; the production schedule of refrigerators is 8.09 million units, a 6.7% decrease year - on - year; the production schedule of washing machines is 7.4 million units, a 1.4% increase year - on - year [7]. - In mid - March 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased by 1.6%, 2.1%, and 5.3% respectively [7]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 115,000 tons, higher than last week's 105,100 tons. The trading volume in the northern region increased significantly due to improved construction conditions [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Entering April, steel demand will gradually peak, and supply expansion pressure remains. Market sentiment is still cautious. In the short term, the steel market supply and demand are generally balanced. Without major positive policies, steel prices may fluctuate [21]. - Investment Strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, take profits; for steel profits, mainly wait and see [2][21]