Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On August 28, the JM2601 contract closed at 1175.0, up 0.90%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The market should be treated as a range-bound operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On August 28, the J2601 contract closed at 1672.5, down 0.51%. The spot price of coke was proposed for the eighth round of price increases by major coke enterprises. The market should be treated as a range-bound operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 1175.00 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1672.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 927,249.00 lots, up 14,534.00 lots; J期货合约持仓量 was 47,918.00 lots, up 550.00 lots [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓 was -125,180.00 lots, up 3,769.00 lots; 焦炭前20名合约净持仓 was -4,921.00 lots, up 296.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差 was 155.00 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan; J1 - 9月合约价差 was 89.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - 焦煤仓单 was 0.00 sheets; 焦炭仓单 was 820.00 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 978.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 150.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J主力合约基差 was 102.50 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM主力合约基差 was 125.00 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.00 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 289.50 million tons, down 5.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the monthly output of raw coal was 38,098.70 million tons, down 4,008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3,561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 188.60 million tons, down 2.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 450.45 million tons, up 2.67 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 268.62 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coke enterprises was 966.41 million tons, down 10.47 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coke enterprises was 64.37 million tons, up 1.86 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 812.31 million tons, up 6.51 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.59 million tons, down 0.21 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coke enterprises was 13.07 days, up 0.10 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.76 days, down 0.07 days [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4,064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 74.42%, up 0.08% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 23.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4,185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. Industry News - Personal bankruptcy local regulations have been implemented in Xiamen. Natural persons who meet certain conditions can undergo reorganization, reconciliation, or bankruptcy liquidation [2]. - Chinese chip manufacturers are seeking to triple their AI chip production in 2026 to reduce dependence on Nvidia [2]. - PetroChina is studying the possibility of using stablecoins in cross - border settlement and payment [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative visited Canada from the 24th to the 27th and will then go to Washington, the United States, to meet with relevant US officials [2]. Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, on August 28, the 2601 contract closed at 1175.0, up 0.90%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The macro - level shows that the peak summer power consumption period is over, and power supply is stable. The fundamental situation is that the mine - end inventory has increased, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the market is in a range - bound operation [2]. - For coke, on August 28, the 2601 contract closed at 1672.5, down 0.51%. The spot price of coke was proposed for the eighth round of price increases by major coke enterprises. The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative visited Canada and will then go to the United States. The fundamental situation is that the demand side has high pig iron production, the mine - end inventory pressure has eased, and the total coking coal inventory has increased. The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 23 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the market is in a range - bound operation [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. The "price war" among leading shipping companies and Trump's plan to impose tariffs have increased the uncertainty of global trade, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in September has weakened. The GDP growth rate of the eurozone in Q2 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, and the inflation slowdown gives the ECB flexibility in interest - rate policy. Overall, due to the uncertainty of the trade war and weak demand expectations, the futures prices fluctuate greatly, and investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price was 1316.000, down 11.8; EC second - main contract closing price was 1620.5, down 42.60. EC2510 - EC2512 spread increased by 20.50 to - 304.50; EC2510 - EC2602 spread increased by 25.60 to - 124.80. EC contract basis increased by 2.90 to 674.20. EC main contract open interest decreased by 684 to 53725 [2] Spot Price - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) was 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly) was 1041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (Composite Index) (weekly) was 1415.36, down 44.83. Container ship capacity was 1.22797 million TEUs, up 0.20. CCFI (Composite Index) (weekly) was 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1770.00, up 48.00. Baltic Dry Index (daily) increased by 97.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily) data not shown in a clear increase/decrease way. Average charter price of Panamax ships was 14120.00, down 282.00; average charter price of Capesize ships was 22168.00, down 5900.00 [2] Industry News - Trump said that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and will soon impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture, possibly up to 200%. Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but Cook said Trump has no right to do so, and the Fed spokesman said the president can only remove a governor for "good cause". The State Council issued an opinion on in - depth implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, with goals for 2027 and 2030 [2] Key Points to Watch - On August 28 at 17:00, the eurozone's August industrial sentiment index and economic sentiment index will be released. At 20:30 on the same day, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 (in ten thousand people) and the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter will be released [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 27, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, with the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturities declining by about 0.15 - 0.75bp, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y maturities declining by about 0.20bp to 1.76% and 1.99% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising by 0.02%, 0.07%, 0.08%, and 0.24% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rose to around 1.51% and fluctuated. - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in July decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the profit decline has narrowed for two consecutive months. In July, industrial added value and social retail sales fell more than expected, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate remained stable. In July, the financial data showed structural differentiation, with government bonds continuing to support the increase in social financing, while the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents was still insufficient, and new loans turned negative. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will promote the recovery of consumption growth. Overseas, the Fed Chairman's speech at the central bank annual meeting increased market bets on a Fed rate cut in September. As bond yields approach the high point in mid - March this year, the allocation value has significantly increased, and allocation demand is expected to effectively support the market. The bond market's sensitivity to external factors such as the rise of the stock market may weaken marginally. - If the fluctuations in the capital and fundamental aspects are limited, the subsequent strengthening of the equity market is expected to have a limited impact on the bond market. The bond market pricing is expected to gradually return to the rational range dominated by fundamentals. However, in the context of the monetary policy focusing on structural tools, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further. Strategically, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities brought by the phased repair of treasury bond futures. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of the T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.02%, and 0.24% respectively. The trading volumes of the T and TL main contracts increased by 3956 and 22208 respectively, while the trading volumes of the TF and TS main contracts decreased by 8338 and 5141 respectively. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads of TL2512 - 2509, T12 - TL12, TF2512 - 2509, TS12 - T12, TS12 - TF12 decreased, while the spreads of T2512 - 2509 and TF12 - T12 increased. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of the T, TF, and TS main contracts increased by 1656, 1959, and 612 respectively, while the position of the TL main contract decreased by 1148. The net short positions of the T, TF, and TL decreased by 764, 63, and 2459 respectively, while the net short position of the TS increased by 221. [2] 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of most CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB, 220017.IB, 230006.IB, etc., while the net price of 220022.IB decreased. [2] 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.25bp, 0.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.25bp, and 0.25bp respectively. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate increased by 14.05bp, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 0.20bp, the silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 4.28bp, the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.40bp, the silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 1.00bp, and the Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 1.10bp. The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.5 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open market operations was 3799 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 6160 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations, with a net withdrawal of 2361 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 40203.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. At the end of July, the total assets of industrial enterprises above the designated size were 183.67 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the total liabilities were 106.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; the owner's equity was 77.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.6%; the asset - liability ratio was 57.9%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points. - Six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including unlimited housing purchases outside the outer ring for eligible families, adjusting housing purchase restrictions for single adults, increasing the provident fund loan limit for green buildings by 15%, implementing the "withdrawal and loan" policy for provident funds, unifying mortgage rates for first and second - home purchases, and fine - tuning property tax collection policies. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce stated that the consumption pattern in China has shifted to a stage where commodity consumption and service consumption are equally important. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On August 28 at 17:00, the Eurozone's industrial sentiment index for August will be released. - On August 29 at 20:30, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for July will be released. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips with reference prices between 121,000 and 124,000 yuan/ton. The raw material situation is tight, the smelting output has a slight increase, downstream demand shows mixed trends, and the nickel price has dropped recently with improved spot premium and slightly reduced domestic inventory [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,280 dollars/ton, up 305 dollars [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 29,785 lots, up 4,713 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 209,220 tons, up 72 tons; the SHFE nickel inventory is 26,943 tons, down 19 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,025 tons, down 61 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 123,150 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,050 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,390 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 185.09 dollars/ton, down 9.26 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,205.85 million tons, up 110.69 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,200 metal tons, down 400 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 835,900 tons, down 205,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, down 45,900 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 590,100 tons, up 7,400 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step method" to control the Federal Reserve is in progress. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors [3]. - The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip research and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The raw material situation is tight due to the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the decline of domestic nickel ore port inventory despite the recovery of Philippine nickel ore supply [3]. - In the smelting sector, the production of leading enterprises was stable in July, with some smelters increasing output and new production capacity planned, leading to a slight increase in refined nickel output [3]. - In the demand side, stainless steel mills increased production due to improved profits, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries was limited. The nickel price dropped recently, leading to improved spot premium and slightly reduced domestic inventory [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has seen an expanded month - on - month destocking, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing destocking. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage are decreasing month - on - month, while downstream tire companies are actively purchasing, leading to better - than - expected warehouse shipments and continued destocking at Qingdao Port [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises have basically returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in capacity utilization, and enterprises generally maintain normal sales. However, this week, the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth. Some enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules or have maintenance plans at the end of the month, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,760 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 137,392 lots, down 1,722 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 51,988 lots, down 6,908 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33,175 lots, down 876 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,834 lots, down 1,489 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 177,270 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 45,662 tons, up 1,310 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 860 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,085 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,027 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 412 yuan/ton, up 144 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 63.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.9 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 58.33 Thai baht/kg, up 0.73 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 50.1 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.53%, up 0.52 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.94%, up 0.25 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.64%, down 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 24th to August 30th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. Areas north of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which may increase the impact on tapping. Areas south of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping in most other areas has slightly decreased [2]. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71%. Bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [2]. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply is tight due to weather, and purchase prices remain high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, tapping has resumed, and the supply of fresh latex is increasing. However, due to possible future rainfall, some processing plants are competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices, driving up raw material purchase prices [2]. - The short - term price range of the ru2601 contract is expected to be between 15,650 - 16,200, and the short - term price range of the nr2510 contract is expected to be between 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold prices are supported by risk - aversion sentiment and remain resilient, but lack major macro - catalytic factors in the short term, mainly moving in a high - level range. If the subsequent PCE data cools down, it may further boost the expectation of interest rate cuts, but the market expects a slight rebound in this PCE. The non - farm payrolls report in early September will be the next key macro - catalyst. It is recommended to lightly position after a pullback. Technically, the daily RSI shows that gold oscillates in the 30 - 60 range, and the MACD indicates short - term upward momentum. The 790 yuan/gram level may form strong resistance. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.16 yuan/gram, up 0.04; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9305 yuan/kg, down 49. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are 166596 hands and 280655 hands respectively, down 7992 hands and 23167 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts are 159517 hands and 104337 hands respectively, down 1649 hands and 4866 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities of gold and silver are 37503 kg and 1165498 kg respectively, with gold unchanged and silver up 38165 kg. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 779 yuan/gram, up 2.14; the spot price of silver is 9294 yuan/kg, down 25. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 2.16 yuan/gram, up 2.1; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 11 yuan/kg, up 24. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 959.92 tons, up 1.43 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15274.69 tons, down 14.13 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC are 212590 contracts and 46549 contracts respectively, with gold down 16895 contracts and silver up 2281 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 8.57%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.33%, down 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold is 16.14% and 16.15% respectively, down 0.15% and 0.14%. [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea have been completed and will impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture soon. Trump publicly accused Fed Governor Cook of "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior", and Cook said Trump has no right to fire her. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.8%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 6.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 50.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 43.2%. [2] 3.6 Technical Analysis and Trading Suggestions - Technically, the daily RSI shows that gold oscillates in the 30 - 60 range, and the MACD indicates short - term upward momentum. The 790 yuan/gram level may form strong resistance. The Shanghai gold 2510 contract is concerned about the range of 750 - 800 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is concerned about the range of 9300 - 9400 yuan/kg. For the outer market, the London gold price is concerned about the range of 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce, and the London silver price is concerned about the range of 38.5 - 39.5 US dollars/ounce. It is recommended to lightly position after a pullback. [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025 - 08 - 27 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly. The smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacities has accelerated supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has risen slightly, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The trading atmosphere has become dull, domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium is at a low level. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, but the LME spot premium has been adjusted downwards, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, with low positions and price adjustments, both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,200. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 0 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,807 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 207,071 lots, down 2,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 7,100 lots, up 903 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 36,213 tons, down 153 tons. The SHFE inventory is 77,838 tons, up 1,035 tons; the LME inventory is 65,525 tons, down 2,550 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 4.61 US dollars/ton, down 1.66 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 124,600 tons, up 7,000 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc is 12.63%, down 0.94 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc is 12.63%, down 0.94 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.86%, up 0.21 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.91%, up 0.05 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - Trump's "three - step method" to control the Federal Reserve is in progress: replace Powell, control the board of governors, and fire the presidents of regional Federal Reserve banks. If Cook is successfully fired, Trump may obtain four seats on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and have a majority in the seven - member council. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action opinion focuses on AI chip research and development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of smart cars and other terminals [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the market will mainly experience volatile adjustments. It suggests either waiting and observing or cautiously holding previous long - positions, with a focus on the 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 271,790 yuan/ton, up 2,370 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai Tin was down 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price was 34,130 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 33,309 lots, up 23,394 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,252 lots, up 417 lots; LME tin total inventory was 1,780 tons, down 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,491 tons, down 301 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 155 tons, up 55 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 7,163 tons, up 11 tons; the SMM1 tin spot price was 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,080 yuan/ton, up 2,670 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 173 US dollars/ton, up 123 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 176,290 yuan/ton, up 960 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step plan" to control the Federal Reserve is advancing. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in smelting output was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Most downstream and end - user enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude, using previous inventories for production and only making a certain amount of rigid demand purchases when prices fall slightly. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has rebounded. Technically, the long - position is stronger with increased positions, and the price has reached above 270,000 yuan [3]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12850 | 10 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -70 | 0 -5355 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -11213 | -2771 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 128304 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 100851 | -175 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13700 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 445 | -10 | | | | 上游情况 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. The organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and a drop in the operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to see a significant increase in production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, the limited price increase in downstream sectors and the expected long - term contraction in photovoltaic industry demand may restrict the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. The overall inventory of aluminum alloy continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the demand for industrial silicon remains stable. The decline of industrial silicon today is less than that of polysilicon, and there is a possibility of a supplementary decline later. If the price later falls below 8,200 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long - position layout at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 275,558 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,670 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5,009 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,822 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 116 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 30 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 11,100 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 72.71%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5.8633 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%, among which the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.4703 trillion kWh. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 84.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 3.7403 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1.1251 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 913.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places is increasing, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon in the southwest region will increase week - on - week. Some previously shut - down silicon plants in Sichuan have recently restarted production, and the production capacity is gradually being released. In Xinjiang, some large - scale plants maintain a stable production rhythm, but small and medium - sized silicon plants are still not very enthusiastic about resuming production due to cost and market price factors, and the overall output remains stable. However, if the market price fluctuates significantly in the future, large - scale plants may also adjust their production plans [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Situation - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and a drop in the operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to see a significant increase in production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Polysilicon enterprises have raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work has increased. However, the limited price increase in downstream sectors and the expected long - term contraction in photovoltaic industry demand may restrict the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, the overall inventory continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the overall demand for industrial silicon remains stable. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].