研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 塑料产业日报 2025-12-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6831 | 28 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6831 | 28 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6886 | 23 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6931 | 39 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 248435 | -56638 持仓量(日,手) | 407064 | -27318 | | | 1-5价差 | -55 | 5 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 486290 | -11223 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 580268 | -15819 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -93978 | 4596 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Globally, the end of the US corn harvest has increased supply pressure, and the relatively loose supply - demand of global and US soybeans has suppressed international corn prices. In China, in the Northeast region, low - temperature storage conditions, farmers' reluctance to sell, and transportation bottlenecks support the bottom price. With rising processing profits and higher operating rates, consumption and procurement by enterprises are increasing, and purchase prices remain strong. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, high mold rates due to rainy weather during the harvest have led to quality issues. After building inventories, feed and processing enterprises adjust prices flexibly. Corn futures are generally strong but have slowed down recently, and caution is advised when chasing the rise [2]. - **Starch**: As new - season corn supply increases, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is good, and some customers have switched back to corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch prices. The inventory of corn starch enterprises has decreased. Starch futures have also slowed down after a continuous rise, and caution is needed when chasing the rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2542 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 3 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 950183 lots, down 9437 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 230178 lots, down 7962 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 in corn starch futures are - 180343 lots, down 1441 lots; for corn, it is - 35223 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 60215 lots, and for corn starch, it is 0 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 358 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 447.75 cents/bushel, up 1.5 cents/bushel [2]. - CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1655731 contracts, up 59370 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are - 120964 contracts, down 28611 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn is 2331.67 yuan/ton, up 1.87 yuan/ton [2]. - Factory quotes for corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively, with no change [2]. - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, with no change; CIF price of imported corn is 2021.85 yuan/ton, down 0.63 yuan/ton; international freight for imported corn is 0 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of the main corn starch contract is 24 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 95.67 yuan/ton, up 9.87 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 470 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 601 yuan/ton, up 147 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 225 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area and production of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are provided. For example, the sown area of corn in the US is 427.11 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares; production is 131 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 59.9 tons, down 2.9 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 269.8 tons, down 2.9 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 140 tons, up 6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly) is 106.9 tons, down 4 tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, down 2 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 tons, down 2.02 tons [2]. - Monthly production of feed is 2957 tons, down 171.7 tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 6 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it is 97 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jilin, it is - 43 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 27.83 days, up 1.6 days [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 142.34 tons, up 4.03 tons [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 71.34%, up 1.89%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 61.38%, up 0.49% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.6%, down 0.24%; 60 - day historical volatility is 8.44%, down 0.08% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 8.83%, down 3.16%; for at - the - money put options, it is 8.83%, down 3.4% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of November 26, the sown area of the 2025/26 corn season in Argentina reached 39.3% of the expected area, up 2% from the previous week [2]. - Analysts predict that the net export sales volume of US corn for the week ending October 23, 2025, will be between 1.1 million and 2.5 million tons [2]. 3.9 Key Focus The weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].

| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-12-01 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口 发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1675 | -2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -69 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, resulting in a large increase in the inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance last week, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate increased. This week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume normal production, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to increase, but the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises at the beginning of the month will limit the increase range. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15100 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12170 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3080 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 66940 lots, down 12655 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 45211 lots, down 1736 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31817 lots, down 2468 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8972 lots, up 1622 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 41400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 50702 tons, down 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1845 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14630 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13061 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 891 yuan/ton, up 178 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.61 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.64 million tons, down 6.11 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.98%, up 1.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.99%, up 1.69 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, an increase of 2.71%. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%; the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, an increase of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, the profits of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises decreased month - on - month and maintained a contraction trend. This week, some facilities in East and North China will restart, and the newly followed - up maintenance capacity is scarce. The utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity is expected to increase month - on - month. In December, caustic soda is generally expected to be in a situation of relatively high supply. Alumina enterprises have no news of production cuts, and their procurement demand is low under the background of low profits; non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level, the supply will continue to be loose, the spot price will be under pressure, and it is more likely that the spot price will decline to narrow the basis in the future. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the high basis and low corresponding profit level may limit the decline space, with the daily range expected to be around 2180 - 2250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 148,447 lots, a decrease of 8006 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was 5467 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 275,167 lots, an increase of 69,841 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 18,551 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton; the basis of caustic soda was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 222.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 654 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged. From November 21st to 27th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. From November 22nd to 28th, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.60% month - on - month to 86.06%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 91.29%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.02% month - on - month to 65.53%. As of November 27th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises nationwide was 469,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 87.95%. From November 21st to 27th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 357 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous week [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with daily K - line focusing on support around 6750 and resistance around 6870 [2]. - PE production and capacity utilization are expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply pressure is on the rise as new capacity is planned to be put into operation in December. Downstream开工率 is expected to weaken marginally. International oil prices are in a multi - empty game [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene contracts increased, with the 1 - month contract at 6803 yuan/ton (up 14), the 5 - month contract at 6863 yuan/ton (up 6), and the 9 - month contract at 6892 yuan/ton (up 10). Trading volume was 305073 hands (down 25026), and open interest was 434382 hands (down 23011). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 (up 8). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 98574 hands (down 5841) [2]. b. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6814.78 yuan/ton (up 10.43), and in East China was 7070.24 yuan/ton (down 6.67). The basis was 11.78 (down 3.57) [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.85 dollars/barrel (up 0.61), and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 dollars/ton (up 5.5). The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Northeast Asia was 741 dollars/ton (up 10) [2]. d. Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 84.51% (up 1.79) [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of PE packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 50.7% (down 0.23), 31.83% (down 0.17), and 49.04% (down 0.87) respectively [2]. f. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.49% (up 1.06), the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.54% (up 0.68), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.17%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.16% (down 3.52) [2]. g. Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, China's polyethylene production was 684800 tons (up 2.17% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.51% (up 1.8 percentage points). The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.4%. The inventory of polyethylene production enterprises decreased by 9.80% to 454000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 3.05% to 471100 tons [2]. - From November 22nd to 28th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 1.54% to 7173 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 63.57 yuan/ton to - 346.14 yuan/ton. The cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.26% to 7066 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 95.14 yuan/ton to - 237.43 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a reference view of "oscillating upward with a bullish bias" for the rebar market [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the RB2601 contract rose with a decrease in positions. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points. The weekly rebar production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.18% still at a low level. The apparent demand declined slightly, but the inventory continued to decrease. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, but the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the position volume was 882,576 lots, down 89,702 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,202 lots, down 3,981 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 33 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 69,875 tons, up 10,356 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 193 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,415 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 196 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The spot price spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 10 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,990 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 152.0607 million tons, up 1.5519 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 449,500 tons, up 16,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2553 million tons, up 31,300 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1476 million tons, down 13,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0608 million tons, down 18,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.18%, down 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4673 million tons, down 65,900 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8475 million tons, down 152,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 68.75%, down 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of crude steel in China was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons; the monthly output of steel bars in China was 1.475 million tons, up 41,000 tons; the net export volume of steel products was 9.28 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 92.43, down 0.34; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of the floor area under construction of houses was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of the newly - started floor area of houses was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of November 30, 17 cities have introduced 19 property market relaxation policies, with many places promoting full - finished - housing sales, and the real estate industry is accelerating towards the "what you see is what you get" era. At the same time, the housing provident fund policy continues to be optimized, allowing the withdrawal of provident funds for "aging - friendly" and "child - friendly" housing renovations. The National Development and Reform Commission will further broaden market access, strengthen factor support, and accelerate the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund to enhance the sense of gain of private enterprises [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut has significantly increased, and the precious metals market has maintained a strong performance. The "short squeeze" in the silver market has intensified, driving the recent accelerated rise in silver prices. The slowdown in the US core PPI growth rate and the cooling of the employment market have boosted market sentiment. Although geopolitical risks have eased to some extent, the mainstream market expectation of a rate cut in December is likely to continue to boost market bullish sentiment. The tight inventory of physical silver may exacerbate the short - squeeze in the short term. Any macro data or news falling short of expectations may amplify the callback risk in the precious metals market. In the long - term, the US debt pressure makes gold an attractive asset, and central bank gold purchases provide structural support for gold prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 963.28 yuan/gram, up 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 13,278 yuan/kilogram, up 551 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 342,979 lots, up 153,266 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,703,384 lots, up 1,072,037 lots. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 205,325 lots, up 3,196 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 38,724 lots, down 8,486 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 90,873 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 573,702 kilograms, up 14,820 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 958.46 yuan/gram, up 10.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,303 yuan, up 685 yuan [2] 3.3 ETF and CFTC Data - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,610.54 tons, up 28.21 tons. The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC was 203,916 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC was 43,181 contracts, down 3,036 contracts [2] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] 3.5 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.44, down 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.79%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, down 0.86; the CBOE gold volatility index was 22.87, up 0.92. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.63, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 77.74, down 0.05 [2] 3.6 Industry News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US - Ukraine talks were "productive". White House official Kevin Hassett hinted that Trump might name the next Fed chair by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs said the Fed would cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a market - priced probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December was 87.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by January next year was 67.5% [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - US November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1st, US JOLTS job openings data on December 2nd, US ADP private sector employment data on December 3rd, and US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint On Monday, the HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the National Development and Reform Commission encourages private enterprises to seize investment opportunities and broaden market access. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 81.49%, while the apparent demand and inventory changed little. Overall, the downstream demand for hot-rolled coils is resilient, and the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis. The reference view is that the market is oscillating with a bullish bias, and risk control should be noted. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the trading volume was 704,586 lots, down 80,806 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 81,595 lots, down 18,417 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was 7 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. - The HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 141,932 tons, unchanged; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 193 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the HC main contract was 13 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 10 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 15,206.07 million tons, up 155.19 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 44.95 million tons, up 1.62 million tons. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 625.53 million tons, up 3.13 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 114.76 million tons, down 1.34 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.07%, down 1.10 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.96%, down 0.60 percentage points. - The hot - rolled coil output of sample steel mills was 319.01 million tons, up 3 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 81.49%, up 0.76 percentage points. - The hot - rolled coil inventory of sample steel mills was 78.02 million tons, unchanged; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 322.88 million tons, down 1.21 million tons. - The domestic crude steel output was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the net steel export volume was 928 million tons, down 64 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 0.0829 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 3.3221 million vehicles, up 0.0957 million vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, down 1.3396 million units. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, down 0.7499 million units. [2] Industry News - Shanxi officially released the new "Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection in Shanxi Province", which for the first time established a special chapter on "Green and Low - Carbon Development", aiming to promote the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, emission reduction in key areas, and establish a coal consumption control system. - The founding conferences of the Hebei Steel Structure Building Industry Alliance and the Hebei Steel Structure Building Innovation Alliance were held in Tangshan on November 28. The establishment of the two alliances aims to build a full - chain and integrated steel structure building industry system and promote the industry's transformation towards industrialization, digitalization, and greening. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by interest - rate cut news, the precious - metal market is generally strong, leading to significant price increases for platinum and palladium futures. The platinum 2606 main contract rose 3.98% to 451.6 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 main contract rose 2.44% to 382.35 yuan/gram [2]. - For platinum, in 2025, the global market is expected to have a supply gap of about 692,000 ounces. With the continuous consumption of above - ground inventory, the physical spot market is in a long - term tight situation. In the short term, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward; in the medium - to - long term, they may maintain a strong trend, but there may be some profit - taking sentiment [2]. - For palladium, in the medium - to - short term, supply is affected by South Africa's power supply and Russia's geopolitical situation. Demand is under downward pressure due to the "platinum replacing palladium" trend. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus, but the warm trading sentiment in precious metals may support prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 451.60, up 9.10; palladium main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 382.35 [2]. - Platinum main - contract position (daily, lots): 10,624.00, up 2,576.00; palladium main - contract position (daily, lots): 3,028.00, up 478.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 438.00, up 24.00; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 384.50, up 22.00 [2]. - Platinum main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): 6.80, up; palladium main - contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 13.60, up 12.90 [2]. - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9,966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3,003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 99.44, down 0.12; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 0.02, up [2]. - VIX volatility index: 16.35, down 0.86 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December with a probability of about 85% - 86% according to the market pricing, and 87.4% according to CME's "FedWatch". The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 12.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.5%, the probability of maintaining the rate unchanged is 9.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - November 11 US ISM manufacturing PMI on December 1 [2]. - US JOLTS job - opening data on December 2 [2]. - US ADP private - sector employment data on December 3 [2]. - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2].