1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is slightly convergent and demand is generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and that of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 59 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,530 yuan/ton, and that of the alumina futures main contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2,732 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 9,251 lots to 338,582 lots, and that of alumina decreased by 14,819 lots to 411,305 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum canceled warrants remained unchanged at 55,300 tons, and the total alumina inventory remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [2]. - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation increased by 25 dollars/ton to 2,814.5 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 546,075 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 12,952 lots to 4,291 lots, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.08 to 7.65 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum increased by 20 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 21,560 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 670 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium increased by 2.93 dollars/ton to - 32.88 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of alumina increased by 3 yuan/ton to 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton, and the alumina production decreased by 13.40% to 786.50 million tons [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 21.49 million tons to 704.31 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 18.12 million tons to 46.85 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the import quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton, and the export quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. - The export quantity of alumina decreased by 7.00 million tons to 18.00 million tons, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance increased by 1.45 million tons to - 10.54 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina increased by 12.93 million tons to 18.93 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.10 million tons to 59.70 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,523.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 98.24% [2]. - The production of aluminum products decreased by 20.60 million tons to 569.40 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.82 million tons to 60.83 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 2.00 million tons to 50.00 million tons, and the export quantity of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots remained unchanged at 126.00 million tons, and the National Housing Prosperity Index decreased by 0.34 to 92.43 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 168.20 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 5.25 million vehicles to 327.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.07% to 11.80%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.03% to 10.24% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0044% to 10.51%, and the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options increased by 0.0408 to 1.41 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed that there was a serious divergence among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged in the remaining time of 2025, while some believed another rate cut in December was likely appropriate. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [2]. - As of the end of October, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing investigated the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises in Guizhou and Chongqing, emphasizing accelerating the transformation and upgrading, promoting innovation, and developing new quality productivity [2]. - The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference issued the "Chengdu Declaration", advocating promoting the optimization of production capacity structure and building a collaborative development ecosystem [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 788.50 | -3.00↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 477,486 | -3421↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 35.5 | -1.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 4175 | +7890↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 800.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 104.05 | -0.30↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 860 | -1↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 852 | 0.00 | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 768 | -2↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 64 | +3↑ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 105. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the uncertainty of interest rate cuts is further strengthened. If the employment demand remains weak, it may significantly increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the trend of gold and silver. However, the November non - farm payrolls report will be released after the next FOMC meeting [3]. - In the long - term, the US debt pressure continues to intensify, investors' confidence in the US dollar tends to weaken. Gold, as the preferred asset for hedging against US dollar credit, is still attractive. Coupled with the continuous intervention of central banks buying gold at low prices, the central price of gold may be further raised [3]. - Technically, the upward momentum of gold and silver prices has strengthened. The London gold and silver prices have key supports at $4030 and $50 respectively. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract is 900 - 950 yuan/gram; the focus range for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract is 11700 - 12300 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 932.56 yuan/gram, down 4.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 12050 yuan/kilogram, down 98 yuan [3]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 73837 lots, down 9001 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 349596 lots, up 9390 lots [3]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 105859 lots, up 584 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 103982 lots, up 1047 lots [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 0 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 0 kilograms, unchanged [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 932 yuan/gram, up 0.6 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 12114 yuan/kilogram, up 146 yuan [3]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 2.14 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 64 yuan/kilogram, up 244 yuan [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1043.72 tons, up 2.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15226.88 tons, up 8.46 tons [3]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 252908 contracts, down 13841 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 49739 contracts, down 2537 contracts [3]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [3]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.21%, up 0.23%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 28.58%, down 3.13% [3]. 3.4 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 26.26%, up 0.81%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 26.26%, up 0.82% [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting showed that there was a serious divide among Fed policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials pointed out that another rate cut in December might be appropriate if the economy performed as expected [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 32.7% (yesterday's probability was 48.9%), and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by January next year was 49.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 33.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively was 16.3% [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council predicted that the platinum market would experience a significant shortage for the third consecutive year this year, with a shortage of 22 tons, 5 tons lower than previously predicted. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to decline by 2% year - on - year to 222 tons, the lowest level in five years; the total demand was expected to be 243 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13 tons [3].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3238 | 58 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -33410 | -3146 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) | -270 | 27 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 210499 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the supply side of polysilicon, as the southwest region enters the dry season, power supply is tight and costs have risen significantly. Polysilicon producers in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places face high cost pressure, and some plan to reduce the operating rate. In the northwest regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, the power cost is relatively stable, and the polysilicon production capacity runs smoothly. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream markets of cells and modules are weak, wafer producers' inventory pressure has increased, and they have to cut production to ease the supply - demand contradiction. The slowdown in end - market demand and the continuous decline in photovoltaic product prices have compressed corporate profit margins and dampened production enthusiasm. [3] - Polysilicon prices have fallen significantly today, and overall demand has not increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 56,000 yuan. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 52,450 yuan/ton, down 2,175 yuan; the main position is 134,292 lots, down 25 lots; the December - January basis of polysilicon is 1,965 yuan, down 195 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 43,375 yuan/ton, down 1,860 yuan. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.27 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 150 yuan/ton, up 2,175 yuan. [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,075 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.92 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.35 US dollars/ton, down 0.27 US dollars/ton. [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7,0873,000 kilowatts, up 101,600 kilowatts; the weekly average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.73 yuan/watt, down 0.01 yuan; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the daily average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece. [3] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting. The industry agreed to cut the operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The picking progress in major production areas in Xinjiang such as Alar and Aksu is around 60 - 80%. Due to the decline in spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has weakened. According to Mysteel's survey data, as of November 14, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates this week was 9,840 tons, an increase of 299 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year increase of 141.47%. During the new season's acquisition period, merchants in Xinjiang are selectively purchasing according to their needs. It is recommended to pay attention to the new season's acquisition progress in production areas and to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates is 9,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 10. The main contract's open interest is 137,358 lots, a decrease of 2,102 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,206 lots, a decrease of 505 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts are also 0, with no change [2]. 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices of red dates in various regions show different changes. For example, the unified - grade red date price in Kashi is 7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, with no change; the unified - grade red date price in Alar is 5.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg; the unified - grade red date price in Aksu is 5.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The prices of special - grade red dates in different regions also have different performances, with the price in Hebei increasing by 0.02 yuan/kg to 9.73 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,840 tons this week, an increase of 299 tons. The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 23,548,402 kg, an increase of 2,283,671 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production increase rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, 4 trucks of red dates arrived. The reference price for special - grade red dates is 9.50 yuan/kg, and for first - grade red dates is 8.50 yuan/kg. The enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing is average. The reference price for new - season special - grade red dates is 9.80 - 10.50 yuan/kg, and for new - season first - grade red dates is 8.80 - 9.50 yuan/kg. In Guangdong's Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of red dates arrived. The reference price for special - grade red dates is 10.80 - 12.50 yuan/kg, and for first - grade red dates is 9.80 - 10.60 yuan/kg. The quality of the arrived red dates varies, resulting in a large price difference [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,267 | -10↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1152598 | -44323↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -64,809 | +15264↑ HC1 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1158 169 | -24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -4 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 989 1330158 | -20 -15566 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1943651 | -46850 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -255769 | 7405 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -333971 | -8730 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 207 | -2 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -27 | 12 | | | 玻璃基差 | 11 | 20 1月-5月玻璃合约 | -130 | 0 | | | 1月-5月纯碱合约 | -74 | 1 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1130 | -25 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1300 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 华 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1113.5, down 3.17%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The total inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1633.5, down 0.70%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. In the macro - aspect, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1113.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1633.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50. The JM futures contract position was 912017.00 hands, down 2263.00; the J futures contract position was 49628.00 hands, up 601.00. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 113822.00 hands, up 14420.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 1682.00 hands, up 469.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 150.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 300.00; the coke warehouse receipts were - 12.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal was 1580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal was 1780.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The JM main contract basis was 496.50 yuan/ton, up 26.00; the J main contract basis was 251.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20; the clean coal inventory was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged. The monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.20 million tons, down 39.18; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, down 3.01. The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1068.97 million tons, down 1.05; the coke inventory was 58.15 million tons, down 0.15. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.17 million tons, up 2.87; the coke inventory was 622.40 million tons, down 4.24. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 11.06 days, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly coking coal output was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.64%, down 0.67. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. The monthly coke output was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.79%, down 0.36; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03. The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2].