Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - **Silver Pledge and Shibor**: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - **LPR**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - **Budget Revenue**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - **LPR Quote**: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - **Previous Bond Market Situation**: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Corn**: Domestically, new corn in the Northeast will be listed in September, leading to increased willingness of grain holders to sell and reduced trade - grain inventory. However, the market supply is relatively loose due to the release of rotation grain and continuous auctions of imported corn. Processing enterprises rely on contract grain or inventory, with insufficient procurement and limited demand support. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - **Corn Starch**: With the resumption of operations of previously - shut - down enterprises, the supply pressure has increased. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated bearishly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Corn**: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2170 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 75 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 937236 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 102120 lots, a decrease of 8778 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 110775 lots, a decrease of 2706 lots [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 193999 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22794 lots, an increase of 39 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, with no change [2]. - **CS - C Spread**: The spread of the main contract CS - C is 351 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - **CBOT Corn**: The closing price of the active contract is 403 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1549876 contracts, a decrease of 67625 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133174 contracts, a decrease of 25206 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Corn**: The average spot price is 2384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - **Corn Starch**: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main contract is 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - **Substitute**: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Production and Sowing Area**: The predicted yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The sowing areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively. The US yield prediction has decreased by 2.92 million tons, and the sowing area has decreased by 0.25 million hectares [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 75.1 million tons, 247 million tons, and 340.2 million tons respectively, all showing decreases; the import volume is 6 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production of feed is 2937.7 million tons, an increase of 175.6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. - **Processing Profit**: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 113 yuan/ton, - 56 yuan/ton, and - 46 yuan/ton respectively, all showing improvements [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Consumption and Inventory**: The consumption of deep - processed corn is 114.06 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42% and 52.3% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.7 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.91%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.88%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 9.46% and 9.45% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ProFarmer organization conducted an annual inspection of crops in the Midwest. In Ohio, the corn yield potential is at the highest level in at least 22 years, but drought may limit the yield at the autumn harvest. In South Dakota, the corn yield per unit area is at the highest level since 2020 due to sufficient moisture. The increase in planting area and yield per unit area has led to significant increases in the US corn yield and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season, causing the international corn price to decline [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1162.5, down 2.60%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. Dalian Commodity Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the coking coal futures JM2601 contract to no more than 1,000 lots since August 15, 2025, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory turned from decreasing to increasing this period, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been decreasing for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On August 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1678.0, down 2.33%. On the spot side, the seventh round of price increase was initiated. Macroeconomically, China's rebar production in July was 1518.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 11338.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory rebounded. The pig iron output this period was 240.66 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons. With high pig iron output, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is transferred downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1162.50 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1678.00 yuan/ton, down 30.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 898911.00 lots, down 32581.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 49523.00 lots, down 367.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 111119.00 lots, up 4950.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5276.00 lots, up 763.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 118.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 45.00 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 954.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 30.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 137.50 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The coking coal output was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan/ton; the coke output was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed to further standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry, requiring strengthening industrial regulation and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity in a market - oriented and legalized manner; curbing low - price disorderly competition and improving the price monitoring and product pricing mechanism [2]. - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 135839 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; the national general public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - A national teleconference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the need to steadily optimize policies, implement policies to increase consumption, and accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Nearly one - third of US companies plan to raise prices within six months, which reflects that US companies are more inclined to pass on higher input and import costs to consumers. Large - scale price increases may exacerbate inflation, affect US household budgets, and influence the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,382 lots, up 3,663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,384 lots, down 433 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,903 tons, down 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, up 22,475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.8 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 70 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons [3]. - The import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,041.35 points, up 21.34 points; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will start meeting with 11 candidates for the Fed Chairman around September 1st; India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [3]. - Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of cryptocurrencies [3]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner confirmed that the government is seeking to acquire a 10% stake in Intel; SoftBank Group invested $2 billion in Intel [3]. - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit in Hungary [3]. - The US and Europe will immediately start providing security guarantees for Ukraine; Trump has ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine but said air support is an option [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted due to price fluctuations, but the output still fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply is tight [3]. - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and although the demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support lead prices [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, short - term fundamentals have returned. It's recommended to buy the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the production cut intensity. The market supply is currently loose, and the destocking process will be repeated. The price drop today is mainly due to the decline of coking coal, and it's uncertain whether the anti - involution meeting will lead to price speculation [2]. - For glass, the supply is at a low level with no change in cold - repair of production lines. The demand from the real estate is weak, but downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase. It's recommended to buy the main contract on dips when the price drops to around 1100 yuan. The market may trade the positive impact of potential interest rate cuts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 147 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; soda ash main contract position: 1365953 lots, down 62895 lots; glass main contract position: 1198103 lots, up 1641 lots [2]. - Soda ash front 20 net position: 34639 lots, down 345354 lots; glass front 20 net position: 30267 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 11020 tons, down 100 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2388 tons, down 50 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: 828 yuan, up 13 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 165 yuan, up 11 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 98 yuan, up 8 yuan; glass basis: - 82 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large board: 1084 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large board: 1090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 87.32%, up 1.91%; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, up 2.34% [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - One - year and five - year LPR remain unchanged; the new generation of military equipment will be unveiled; the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues [2]. 3.6 Macro Situation In July, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the production may decline in the future. The demand from glass is at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass drives a small increase in demand. The inventory is rising due to insufficient demand [2]. - Glass: The supply is at a low level, and the demand from the real estate is weak. The downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase, and the market may start the restocking expectation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with stable demand, loose spot supply, and a possible slight accumulation of inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the proportion of molten aluminum. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and the recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,535 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 70 yuan, up 25 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 6,671 hands to 228,028 hands. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,567.50 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, up 1,105 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.06 [2]. - **Alumina Contracts**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 1 yuan, unchanged. The main contract position of alumina decreased by 15,924 hands to 176,803 hands [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, down 20 yuan. The main contract position of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 23 hands to 7,889 hands [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 15 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 10 yuan, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 3.59 US dollars/ton, down 3.54 US dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 58 yuan, down 32 yuan [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 275 yuan, down 435 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production**: The alumina production in the current month was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume was 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons [2]. - **Alumina Trade**: The export volume of alumina in the current month was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Supply and Demand**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons; the export volume was 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 54.70 million tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - **Aluminum Product Production**: The output of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, up 5 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - **Aluminum - related Product Production**: The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons; the output of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Index**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 5.61%, down 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.30%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 8.86%, down 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.10, down 0.0489 [2]. Industry News - **Tax Revenue**: From January to July, the tax revenue of equipment manufacturing, modern service industries, etc. performed well. The tax revenue of equipment manufacturing industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer and communication equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment increased by 33%, 10.1%, and 8% respectively. The tax revenue of scientific research and technology service industries increased by 12.7%, and that of culture, sports and entertainment industries increased by 4.1% [2]. - **Consumption Policy**: The national consumer goods trade - in work promotion video conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily and implement consumption - promotion incremental policies [2]. - **Sovereign Rating**: S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign rating with a stable outlook [2]. - **Subsidy Policy**: Heilongjiang adjusted the consumer goods trade - in subsidy policy. From August 23, car replacement will be subsidized in three levels [2]. - **Budget Revenue and Expenditure**: In July, the national general public budget revenue was 202.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to July, the cumulative increase turned positive for the first time. The national general public budget expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology called on the photovoltaic industry to regulate competition order and promote healthy development [2]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold main contract fluctuated during the session, while the Shanghai Silver contract weakened significantly. The US Department of Commerce's tariff - increasing policy has caused the precious metals market to experience a correction due to the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs. However, the tariffs have no substantial impact on silver, and the probability of silver being additionally taxed is extremely low. The current correction may be mainly driven by market sentiment. The S&P's confirmation of the US sovereign credit rating has supported the US dollar, and the dollar index has continued its rebound from a low level. The market is currently focusing on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Fed Chairman Powell further releases hawkish signals, the dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to trade within a range, and mid - term interest - rate cuts provide strong support for the bottom of gold prices. The negotiation between Russia and the US may affect the gold price. If the negotiation makes substantial progress, it may further relieve the downward pressure on the gold price; if it fails to meet expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards gold in the short term, and pay attention to short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver as it approaches the oversold range. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 772.68 yuan/gram, down 2.38 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9042 yuan/kilogram, down 145 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 191,474 lots, up 39 lots; the main - contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 318,678 lots, down 23,822 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 160,754 lots, down 1365 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 114,342 lots, down 5142 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold was 36,582 kilograms, up 249 kilograms; the warehouse - receipt quantity of silver was 1,140,199 kilograms, down 9247 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 768.7 yuan/gram, down 4.2 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 3.98 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's silver spot price was 9026 yuan/kilogram, down 128 yuan, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 16 yuan/kilogram, down 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 962.21 tons, down 3.15 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,339.66 tons, down 16.94 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 229,485 contracts, down 7565 contracts; the silver CFTC non - commercial net positions were 44,268 contracts, down 6390 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Volumes**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.17%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.6%, up 0.12% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 17.36%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate. The new list covers a wide range of products, including wind turbines and their components, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, compressors, and pump equipment [2]. - US President Trump said the US would help Ukraine defend but would not send ground troops, and reiterated that Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO [2]. - The US and Japan plan to conduct in - depth consultations on implementing a $550 billion investment in the US. The investment involves important fields such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, and shipbuilding, and a mechanism to verify national interests will be established [2]. - S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the expected continuous resilience of the US economy [2]. - The European Central Bank President Lagarde said the trade agreement between the US and the EU was slightly higher than expected but far from the severe scenario of US tariffs exceeding 20% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Trade war uncertainties remain, the demand outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates significantly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price is 1355.000, down 18.2; EC second main contract closing price has a +6.20 increase [1]. - The spread between EC2510 - EC2512 is -420.90, down 16.20; the spread between EC2510 - EC2602 is -177.00, down 11.90 [1]. - EC contract basis is 825.17, up 15.30 [1]. - EC main contract open interest is 51727, down 1072 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 2180.17, down 55.31; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1,106.29, down 24.15 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1460.19, down 29.49; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (in ten - thousand TEUs), with no change [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1193.34, down 7.39; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1,790.47, down 8.58 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 1964.00, up 58.00; Panama - type freight index (daily) is 1,637.00, down 7.00 [1]. - Average charter price for Panama - type ships is 13887.00, down 113.00; average charter price for Cape - type ships is 21,986.00, down 2887.00 [1]. Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security jointly issued a notice, adding three withdrawal conditions for personal pensions from September 1st [1]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate [1]. - US President Trump said the US will help Ukraine defend but will not send ground troops, and Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO. The White House is planning a tri - lateral meeting in Budapest [1]. Market Analysis - On Wednesday, most Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures prices fell, with the main contract EC2510 down 1.33%, and far - month contracts down between -1% and -1% [1]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% week - on - week decline, and spot indicators continue to fall [1]. - Leading shipping companies launched a "price war" to compete for off - season cargo volume, and ONE also lowered its European Line spot cabin quotes at the end of August, leading to a cold market expectation [1]. - Trump plans to announce additional tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors in the next two weeks, increasing global trade uncertainties [1]. - US July CPI and non - farm data slowed, boosting the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, but PPI showed an unexpected rebound in producer inflation, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September has marginally declined [1]. - In Q2 2025, the eurozone GDP growth slightly exceeded market expectations, and service and manufacturing activities gradually recovered. Inflation slowdown and stable economic data give the ECB interest rate policy flexibility [1]. Key Data to Watch - France's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value on August 21 at 15:15 [1]. - Germany's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value on August 21 at 15:30 [1]. - Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value on August 21 at 16:00 [1]. - UK's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value on August 21 at 16:30 [1]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 (in ten thousand people) on August 21 at 20:30 [1]. - US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value on August 21 at 21:45 [1].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/8/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,836.00 | -6.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,622.00 | -56.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 596,779.00 | -4685.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 452,379.00 | -14676.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -81,612.00 | +1408.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -36,591.00 | +71.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 80.00 | +8.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 154.00 | +2.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 73,048.00 | -143.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 20,597.00 | ...

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-08-20 仓增量价格下跌，多空存在分歧，预计区间宽幅震荡。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考11.95-12 .4。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119930 | -400 09-10月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -130 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15060 | -110 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 50856 | -5111 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -31236 | -512 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 209328 | -1086 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 26962 | 768 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 10008 | -1086 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 22559 | -282 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价( ...