1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather in major Asian producing countries, causing ICE raw sugar futures to decline on Wednesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.04 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.66 cents per pound [2]. - The China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast. This is mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - cane planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an estimated total output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and nine in Guangxi have started production, 17 fewer than the same period last year. Recent continuous rainfall in the production areas has delayed the start of production. However, sugar imports increased significantly in October, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 402,945 lots, an increase of 14,936 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 57,812 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; that of Brazilian sugar was 4,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835,090 hectares, a decrease of 12,860 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49%. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 6.0229 million tons, an increase of 26.66%. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 2.4188 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, an increase of 959,200 tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 15.917 million tons, a decrease of 1.841 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 7.48%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 7.35%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.02%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October 2025, China imported 35,900 tons of aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 17029011), 1,700 tons of other solid sugars, syrups, artificial honey, and caramel without added flavors or colorants (HS code 17029090), and 29,700 tons of flavored or colored aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 21069061), with a total of 67,300 tons for the three types of syrups. The import of simple solid mixtures of cane sugar, beet sugar, and other sugars with a sucrose content of over 50% (HS code 17029012) was 3,200 tons, and that of mixtures with other food raw materials (HS code 21069062) was 45,000 tons, with a total of 48,200 tons for the two types of premixes. The total import of the above - mentioned various types was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of butadiene rubber has slightly stronger support. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources have increased, but the spot resources remain tight. High - premium offers struggle to attract buyers, and private price - holding efforts also face difficulties in getting terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened [2]. - Tire enterprises' orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged overhauls and some have reduced production, dragging down the tire capacity utilization rate. As the production schedule of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization rate. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,450 - 10,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the position volume of the main contract is 72,012, an increase of 634 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,980 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 63.51 dollars/barrel, down 1.38 dollars; WTI crude oil is at 59.44 dollars/barrel, down 1.3 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; Naphtha CFR Japan is 573 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.56 million tons/week, up 0.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.02%, up 2.7 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 29,000 tons, down 800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, down 0.53 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.92%, up 4.07 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 636 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan; the social inventory is 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons; the trader's inventory is 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises' orders are insufficient, some sample enterprises have arranged overhauls, and some have reduced production, dragging down the sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Previously, most overhauled butadiene rubber devices have gradually restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the raw material buyers have actively followed up, the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly strengthened, private price - holding efforts struggle to get terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened, and this week the production enterprises' inventory has increased while the trading enterprises' inventory has changed slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, raw material buyers have actively followed up, and after the restart of previously overhauled devices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Due to the good demand growth rate and expectations, the industrial inventory continues to decline. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 180,463 lots, down 3,365 lots; the position of the main contract is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 280 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 26,916 lots, up 150 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 7,680 yuan/ton, up 2,720 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,145 US dollars/ton, up 70 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 11,075 yuan/ton, up 675 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 3,928 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 51,530 tons, up 4,390 tons; the monthly import volume is 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 35,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 175,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 166,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 146,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 38,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 64%, up 5%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 49.18%, down 0.49%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 38.12%, up 0.10% [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 185,403 lots, down 9,600 lots; the total put position is 221,709 lots, up 37,706 lots; the put - call ratio of the total position is 119.58%, up 25.2231%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.48%, up 0.0423% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Do - fluoride said on the interactive platform that the company's current production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 65,000 tons/year, and the new production capacity will be determined according to market demand; Sichuan Famon's 60,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate plant has been fully completed and put into use; in October, China imported 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 3%. Among them, 14,800 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% of the total imports; 7,274 tons were imported from Argentina, accounting for 30% of the total imports. In October, China exported 246 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 63% and a year - on - year decrease of 18%; customs data shows that the import of spodumene decreased in October, reaching 652,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria and Zimbabwe together contributed 85.7% of the total imports. Among them, 295,000 tons of ore came from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 15%; about 110,000 tons of ore came from Nigeria, a month - on - month decrease of 8%, and the proportion of lithium concentrate increased significantly; 153,000 tons of ore came from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month increase of 40.9%. In addition, the import from South Africa decreased significantly, with 50,000 tons imported in October, a month - on - month decrease of 54.1% [2] 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate rose and then pulled back, with a 0.84% increase at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day. Fundamentally, the continuous strengthening of the lithium carbonate spot has driven up the price of lithium ore. Overseas miners are more willing to sell, and smelters are also more active in taking delivery. The ore trading market is relatively active. In terms of supply, domestic lithium salt plants maintain a relatively high operating rate, and the production capacity is fully released. Coupled with the significant increase in exports from Chile, it is expected that the domestic imports will also increase after arrival, so the domestic supply level will increase significantly. In terms of demand, both the power and energy storage sectors are making efforts. Driven by good demand expectations, downstream orders and production schedules have increased. Some downstream battery materials have risen rapidly due to supply shortages. In the option market, the put - call ratio of the position is 119.58%, a month - on - month increase of 25.2231%. The option market is dominated by put positions, and the sentiment in the option market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility rising slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2]

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/20 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,050.00 | -20↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1573323 | -57810↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -105874 | -5566↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -49 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December at the end - of - last - month monetary policy meeting. The number of those who thought no more rate cuts were needed this year exceeded those in favor of rate cuts, and some centrists would depend on data. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet (shrinking the balance sheet) [2] - The BLS will not release the October non - farm payroll report but include relevant employment data in the November report, which will be released on December 16, more than a week later than originally planned and after the Fed's last meeting this year [2] - In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants. However, the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the ferronickel price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the production schedule of stainless - steel plants is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the demand peak season shows weak characteristics, with low market purchasing willingness, and general overall inquiry and transaction performance. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase trend [2] - Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong, and it is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,970 lots, an increase of 2,685 lots; the main - contract position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 8,566 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 2,970 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 895 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 591,200 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]

| | | 地产板块构成拖累，而汽车、家电等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需采购为主，氛围有 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 所回暖，现货升水回升，国内库存小幅下降；LME锌去库放慢，现货升水高位。技术面，持仓减量价格调 整，多头氛围减弱，关注MA60支撑。观点参考：预计沪锌震荡调整，关注2.23-2.26。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪锌产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates weakly, with increased open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate supply in the raw material end remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The profit environment of smelters is poor, and the smelting capacity may be limited. The total supply of refined copper in China is still at a high level but the growth rate slows down. The high copper price may suppress the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot market trading sentiment is dull. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where the supply growth rate slows down and the demand is temporarily stable, and the social inventory decreases slightly. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is below the 0 - axis and the red column converges. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,754 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The monthly spread of the main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 187,778 lots, up 34,471 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 27,082 lots, down 4,173 lots; the LME copper inventory is 140,500 tons, up 4,450 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 109,407 tons, down 5,628 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,925 tons, down 550 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 58,352 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 86,435 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 86,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 305 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 33.13 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.21 dollars/kiloton, down 0.17 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,340 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,040 yuan/metal ton, up 40 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,740 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment is 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.10 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.15%, down 0.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.60%, down 0.05%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 13.75%, up 0.0033%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, up 0.03 [2] Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's October policy meeting show that there were serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials think it may be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials think another rate cut in December may be appropriate. There is almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet. Some people worry about the disorderly decline of the stock market. As of the end of October, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) is 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5%, and the rated total power of public charging piles reaches 203 million kilowatts, with an average power of about 44.69 kilowatts. Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing emphasized accelerating the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and promoting the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For the corn market, the USDA report is slightly bearish, but the recent strength of US soybeans and wheat has boosted the price of US corn. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast region has increased, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price increase has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the starch market, the supply pressure has increased with the increase in new - season corn supply and industry operating rate. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and the downstream demand is acceptable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price has declined in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of corn starch is - 116,653 hands, and that of corn is - 43,793 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 69,337 hands, and those of corn starch are 12,453 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 343 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 429.75 cents per bushel, down 5.75 cents per bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,550,059 contracts, an increase of 6,994 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 81,307 contracts, a decrease of 30,121 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,278.82 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,560 yuan/ton, 2,800 yuan/ton, and 2,730 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The import CIF price of corn is 2,034.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively. The corn inventories in southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 86.6 million tons, 124 million tons, and 273.5 million tons respectively, with the deep - processing inventory decreasing by 6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, a decrease of 2,020 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2,015 million tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 27 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively. The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises are 67.29% and 60.89% respectively, with the starch enterprise operating rate decreasing by 2.59 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.2% and 7.69% respectively, with the 60 - day historical volatility decreasing by 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are both 7.99%, with an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil's corn export volume in November 2025 is expected to reach 6.36 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's level. The estimated sown area of US corn in 2026 is 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres or 3.8% compared to 2025. The US corn harvest is almost over, and the short - term supply pressure is high [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed down collectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks weaker than large - cap blue - chips. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, and over 3800 stocks fell. The economic fundamentals in October showed a significant decline in domestic imports and exports, fixed investment, social retail, and industrial added value above designated size. The fixed investment declined for 7 consecutive months, and social retail declined for 5 consecutive months. The real estate market continued to decline rapidly. The M1 - M2 scissors gap ended its 5 - month upward trend. The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged for the 6th consecutive month, indicating a prudent monetary policy and a low possibility of significant reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. In the current macro - data, performance, and policy vacuum period, the market is expected to show a random walk, and stock index futures will remain volatile [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Price and Spread - IF main contract (2512) was at 4539.2, down 31.6; IF sub - main contract (2511) was at 4558.0, down 28.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 3002.6, down 14.8; IH sub - main contract (2511) was at 3008.6, down 14.8. IC main contract (2512) was at 7000.0, down 59.6; IC sub - main contract (2511) was at 7063.4, down 63.0. IM main contract (2512) was at 7263.6, down 35.2; IM sub - main contract (2511) was at 7347.6, down 41.6. The IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1549.4, down 16.0; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2505.4, down 27.8. The IM - IC current - month contract spread was 284.2, up 10.4; the IC - IH current - month contract spread was 4054.8, down 43.8. The IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2789.6, down 17.4; the IM - IH current - month contract spread was 4339.0, down 33.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Seasonal Spread - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 51.8, down 0.6; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 97, down 2.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 13.0, down 1.4; IH next - quarter minus current - month was - 23.4, down 1.6. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 242.0, down 0.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 448.4, up 4.2. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 312.4, up 9.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 540.6, up 11.2 [2] 3.3 Futures Net Positions of Top 20 Holders - IF top 20 net positions were - 22,242.00, down 2488.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 13,615.00, down 598.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 24,823.00, up 1777.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 34,271.00, up 1773.0 [2] 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of CSI 300 was 4564.95, down 23.3; the IF main contract basis was - 25.8, down 2.7. The spot price of SSE 50 was 3008.3, down 12.1; the IH main contract basis was - 5.7, up 3.7. The spot price of CSI 500 was 7062.0, down 60.8; the IC main contract basis was - 61.9, up 6.0. The spot price of CSI 1000 was 7340.4, down 46.8; the IM main contract basis was - 76.8, up 12.2 [2] 3.5 Market Sentiment Indicators - A - share trading volume was 17,226.35 billion yuan, down 200.31 billion yuan. Margin trading balance was 24,979.40 billion yuan, down 47.70 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume was 1912.86 billion yuan, down 268.87 billion yuan. Reverse repurchase had a maturity of - 1900.0 billion yuan and an operation volume of + 3000.0 billion yuan. Main funds were - 513.07 billion yuan, down 592.44 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks was 22.66%, up 0.69%. Shibor was 1.364%, down 0.056%. IO at - the - money call option closing price was 25.00, down 16.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility was 15.55%, up 1.19%. IO at - the - money put option closing price was 12.60, up 0.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility was 15.55%, up 1.06%. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility was 14.42%, up 0.06%. Volume PCR was 60.45%, down 11.30. Position PCR was 78.46%, down 1.21. The Wind market strength of all A - shares was 3.40, up 0.10; the technical aspect was 2.70, up 0.60. The capital aspect was 4.20, down 0.30 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some officials said another rate cut in December "was likely appropriate" if the economy performed as expected. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. Some were worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The People's Bank of China announced on November 20 that the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (unchanged from the previous time), and the over - 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (unchanged from the previous time) [2] 3.7 Key Data to Focus On - At 21:30 on November 20, pay attention to the US September non - farm payroll data, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3]

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,614.00 | -28.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,446.00 | -16.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 727,626.00 | +12625.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 439,983.00 | +16425.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -7,393.00 | +4977.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -13,569.00 | +3157.00↑ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 66.00 | +8.00↑ SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -10.00 | -8.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 20,343.00 | +599.00↑ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,354.00 | -42.00↓ | | | ...