Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil futures has risen, with cost support from the upward movement of iron ore and coking coal. Although the weekly output of hot-rolled coils has slightly declined, the capacity utilization rate remains relatively high. The apparent demand has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The overall inventory has increased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. Considering the macro - economic situation and industry fundamentals, while chasing high prices of the HC2510 contract requires caution, buying on dips can still be considered, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary a. Market Review - As of July 11, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3273 yuan/ton (+72), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+50). The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 323.14 million tons (-5), the apparent demand was 322.51 million tons (-1.86, -6.24% year - on - year), the total inventory was 345.56 million tons (+0.63, -78.56 million tons year - on - year), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week and 22.94 percentage points from last year [7] b. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. The US President Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. Domestically, 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative, and the State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils slightly declined, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.55%. The factory inventory decreased and the social inventory increased, with a total inventory increase of 0.63 million tons. The apparent demand slightly declined but remained above 3.2 million tons. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore and coking coal prices rose, providing cost support. The port inventory of iron ore decreased, and the coking coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants continued to decline. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2510 contract moved upward, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA continued to rise, and the red bars expanded. - **Strategy suggestion**: On the macro - level, anti - involution promotes the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity and improves market sentiment. On the industrial level, the output of hot - rolled coils remains high, the terminal demand is resilient, and the cost support from the rebound of coking coal and iron ore is strengthened. Chasing high prices of the HC2510 contract requires caution, and buying on dips can still be considered [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Price - This week, the HC2510 contract moved upward and was stronger than the HC2601 contract. On July 11, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [15] b. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On July 11, the warehouse receipt volume of hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,587 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0 tons. The net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 10,042 lots, an increase of 51,561 lots from the previous week [21] c. Spot Price - On July 11, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 33,309 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On July 11, the basis was 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [25] 3. Upstream Market a. Raw Material Prices - On July 11, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [34] b. Shipping and Arrival Volumes - From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the total global iron ore shipping volume was 29.949 billion tons, a decrease of 3.627 billion tons from the previous period. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 24.65 billion tons, a decrease of 4.173 billion tons from the previous period. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 25.355 billion tons, an increase of 1.22 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 24.839 billion tons, an increase of 1.209 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.12 billion tons, an increase of 1.948 billion tons from the previous period [39] c. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.4689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3901 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 0.0361 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore decreased by 0.931 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 0.5229 million tons, and the inventory of traded ore decreased by 0.7715 million tons. On July 10, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei was 975,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 67,100 tons [43] d. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.72%, a decrease of 0.48%. The daily coke output was 512,900 tons, a decrease of 0.34 million tons; the coke inventory was 595,800 tons, a decrease of 20,200 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 7.5244 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons; and the available days of coking coal were 11.0 days, an increase of 0.6 days [47] 4. Industry Conditions a. Supply Side - **Production Volume**: In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to May, the cumulative crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In May, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, an increase of 116,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. From January to May, the cumulative steel export volume was 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9%. From January to May, the cumulative steel import volume was 2.553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [50] - **Blast Furnace Operation**: On July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.65 percentage points from last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3981 million tons, a decrease of 104,000 tons from last week and an increase of 152,000 tons from last year. On July 10, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils from 37 monitored enterprises was 3.2314 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 83,400 tons from last year [53] - **Inventory**: On July 11, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils from 37 monitored enterprises was 778,100 tons, a decrease of 510 tons from last week and a decrease of 147,700 tons from last year. The social inventory in 33 major cities was 2.6775 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 637,900 tons. The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4556 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 785,600 tons [58] b. Downstream Demand - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2% respectively. From January to May, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% respectively [61] - **Household Appliance Industry**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the production of household refrigerators was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; and the production of household washing machines was 49.115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [61]

业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 「2025.07.11」 瑞达期货研究院 螺纹钢市场周报 反内卷继续助力 螺纹期价扩大涨幅 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至7月11日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3133（+61），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3280（+40）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量由增转降。216.66（-4.42）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：消费淡季，表观需求回落。本期表需221.5（-3.37），（同比-13.77）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库降。螺纹钢总库存540.37（-4.84），（同比-238.17）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比上周增加0.43个百分点，同比去年增加22.94个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）6月份全球制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，较上月上 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.11」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上行，主力合约EC2508收涨7.31%，远月合约收涨1-3%不等，现价指数持续 改善，支撑主力合约期价运行。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为2258.04，较上周回升134.8点，环比上行6.3%，持续 回升的现货指标说明头部船司此前的宣涨行为大概率能成功落地，市场对旺季运价担忧减弱，从而带动集运指数（欧 线）期价上涨。6月美国标普全球综合PMI指数从5月的53小幅回落至52.8。价格压力明显加剧，主要驱动因素包括关 税政策的影响，以及融资成本、薪资压力和燃料价格的上涨。此外，5月核心PCE同比上升2.7%，略超市场预期2.6%； 5月实际个人消费支出环比下降0.3%，为年初以来的最大跌幅；个人收入环比降0.4%，出现自2021年以来的最大跌幅， 各类数据预示未来经济活动或面临更大挑战。美美联储戴利表示，今年美联储很可能会降息两次，政策前景存在大量 不确定性。此外，欧元区面临美欧关税博弈升级的复杂局面，德国6月CPI趋近欧央行目标，但欧盟拟实施的报复性关 税恐推 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Although the US restarted the tariff war, the market's reaction has become dull. With the release of semi-annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about the first-half earnings of listed companies. The previous series of growth-stabilizing policies are starting to take effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive economic data in the second quarter. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [6][97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.46% for the week, IH2509 rose 1.27%, IC2509 rose 2.69%, and IM2509 rose 3.40%. - Spot: The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 rose 1.96%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump announced a new round of tariff rates, which may have a negative impact on the market, but the market's reaction has become dull. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase, which is positive for the market. - As of July 10, 129 out of 147 A-share listed companies that have announced their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to be profitable, which is positive for the market [6][13][97]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the STAR 50 rose 0.98%, the SME 100 rose 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [16]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.73%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors strengthening significantly, while coal and banking sectors weakened slightly [21]. - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flow**: Industry main funds were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in electronics, computer, and national defense and military industries [25]. - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was low [29]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders net sold 6.61 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted-share lifting market value was 43.09 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 688.585 billion yuan [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to be supported by the fundamental recovery, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market is expected to be supported by a situation of increasing supply and demand. Although industrial inventories are accumulating, they remain at a low level, and consumption expectations are positive. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak and volatile trend on the weekly line, with a weekly change of - 1.62% and an amplitude of 2.52%. As of the end of the week, the main contract closed at 78,430 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on interest - rate cuts, with three main camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [4] - **Domestic Situation**: The Ministry of Commerce responded that the US Commerce Secretary might meet with Chinese negotiators in early August, and the two sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [4] - **Fundamentals**: The TC spot index of copper concentrates continued to operate in the negative range, and port inventories decreased. The supply of concentrates is expected to be tight in the long - term, and the cost - side support for copper prices remains. On the supply side, the price of by - product sulfuric acid is favorable, and the resumption of some smelters after environmental inspections and the ramping - up of new production capacity have increased production willingness and actual output. On the demand side, the US plan to impose large - scale tariffs on copper has adjusted the international trade flow of copper. The decline in copper prices has stimulated downstream inventory building in China, and domestic macro - policies have strengthened consumption expectations [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 515 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 78,430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 178,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 37,056 lots. The inter - month spread of the main contract was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [10][13] - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,075 yuan/ton [13] - **Options Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options of the Shanghai copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.5950, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0954 [27] - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 1,607 lots, a decrease of 10,625 lots from last week [22] 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - **Prices and Fees**: The quotes of upstream copper mines weakened, and the processing fees of blister copper remained flat [28] - **Imports and Spreads**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 0.5098 million tons from April, a decline of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.59%. The spread between refined and scrap copper (tax - included) was 1,022.99 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 693.43 yuan/ton [34] - **Production and Inventory**: As of April 2025, the monthly global output of copper concentrates was 1,909 thousand tons, a decrease of 59 thousand tons from March, a decline of 3%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79.2%, unchanged from March. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous period [39] Supply - Side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April and a year - on - year increase of 15.15%. As of April 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,365 thousand tons, a decrease of 55 thousand tons from March, a decline of 2.27%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [41] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 219.98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 231.23 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of LME increased by 10,700 tons week - on - week, the total inventory of COMEX increased by 9,687 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 148,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [53] Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of May 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from April, an increase of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 15.69% [59] - **Applications**: As of May 2025, the cumulative investment completion in power grids and power sources increased by 19.8% and 0.39% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment in real estate development was 362.3384 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% and a month - on - month increase of 30.67%. The cumulative output of integrated circuits was 193.46 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 28.21% [65][71] Overall - **Global Supply - Demand**: As of April 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global refined copper market had a supply gap of - 50 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 193,600 tons [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased. The rise of soda ash futures was mainly due to market expectations for the Politburo meeting and the spread of real - estate rumors. The glass market showed a bottom - up trend, with improving profits and the potential for a fundamental reversal. In the future, soda ash will face supply - demand imbalance with continued price pressure, while glass may see an increase in production and potential price fluctuations based on market news [6]. - For soda ash, the supply is abundant, the profit is declining, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is expected to remain at a low level. For glass, although the production is increasing, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and there are risks of high - level price drops if the rumors are false [6]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1150 - 1280 for SA2509 contract of soda ash with stop - loss at 1130 - 1300, and 1020 - 1150 for FG2509 of glass with stop - loss at 980 - 1180 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures rose 3.66% this week, mainly driven by market expectations and rumors. Glass futures rose 5.85%, with potential for a fundamental reversal due to factors like industry profit improvement and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash supply remains abundant, profit continues to decline, and inventory is expected to increase. Demand will likely stay at a low level, and prices will face pressure. Glass production is increasing, but real - estate demand is weak. There are risks of high - level price drops if rumors are false [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade SA2509 in the 1150 - 1280 range with stop - loss at 1130 - 1300, and FG2509 in the 1020 - 1150 range with stop - loss at 980 - 1180 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices increased this week [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of soda ash rose to 1215 yuan/ton in the Shahe market, and the spot price of glass rose to 1092 yuan/ton in the Shahe market [16][22]. - **Basis**: The basis of soda ash weakened to - 2 yuan/ton, and the basis of glass weakened to 6 yuan/ton [16][22]. - **Price Spread**: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to weaken, reaching 131 yuan/ton, and is expected to weaken further next week [24][26]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate increased slightly to 81.2%, and the output remained at 70.89 tons. Due to price drops, production is expected to shrink and remain flat next week [28][33]. - **Profit Situation**: Soda ash profit declined, with the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda and combined - soda methods dropping. Glass enterprise profit increased, showing a profit transfer phenomenon [35][38]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - restarted glass production lines increased by two, with output rising slightly but still at a low level. The output of photovoltaic glass decreased in terms of operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume [40][48]. - **Inventory Situation**: Soda ash enterprise inventory increased to 186.34 tons due to insufficient demand, and glass enterprise inventory decreased by 2.87% to 6710.2 million weight cases, with slow de - stocking [50][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: Glass downstream deep - processing orders decreased slightly, with an average of 9.5 days of orders for sample enterprises [56][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled down, and the market is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space of Shanghai Aluminum may be limited [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong, and the short - term upward space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, up 0.29% to 20,695 yuan/ton; Alumina first rose and then fell, up 3.08% to 3,117 yuan/ton; Cast Aluminum rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and demand is stable; Electrolytic Aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak; Cast Aluminum Alloy supply and demand are both weak [6][8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly short the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum and Alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,835 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,606 US dollars/ton, up 0.02%; Alumina futures were at 3,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Cast Aluminum Alloy was at 19,930 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.01, up 0.17; The aluminum - zinc spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; The copper - aluminum spread was 57,735 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan/ton [12][23]. - **Spot Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; in Shanxi was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; in Guiyang was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat; The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a spot discount of 70 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. - **Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 691,850 lots, up 0.12%; The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 9,660 lots [18]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 395,725 tons, up 10.86%; SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 103,197 tons, up 9.05%; Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 412,000 tons, down 2.83%. As of July 11, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warrants were 51,980 tons, up 35.07%; LME electrolytic aluminum registered warrants were 387,500 tons, up 11.11% [34]. - **Raw Materials**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; The cumulative production from January to May was 37.401 million tons, up 9.5% year - on - year. The total import of bauxite increased, and the port inventory rebounded. The domestic bauxite nine - port inventory was 24.54 million tons, up 50,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. In May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 159,700.92 tons, up 3.7% year - on - year; the export was 72.44 tons, up 34.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Production and Trade**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to May was 18.59 million tons, up 4% year - on - year. The import of electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year. The production of aluminum products, cast aluminum alloy, and aluminum alloy all increased, with different trends in imports and exports [49][53][57][60][63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 93.72, down 0.13 from last month. Infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to decline slightly with fluctuations in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [73].

Report Information - Report Title: Rapeseed Products Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and the market's short - term volatility may intensify due to factors such as weather in Canada, MPOB report, US EPA hearing results, and domestic supply - demand situation [9][8] - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term influenced by US soybean conditions and domestic supply - demand factors [12][13] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [9] - Market Review: The rapeseed oil futures closed down this week, with the 09 contract closing at 9607 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. Rainfall in Canada may ease drought. The MPOB report is bearish, but July 1 - 10 export data provides some support. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, supply is ample, and inventory pressure is high, but output pressure weakens, and future imports may be affected [10] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12] - Market Review: The rapeseed meal futures closed up this week, with the 09 contract closing at 2633 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week [13] - Outlook: US soybean conditions are good, and domestic supply is abundant due to imported soybeans. However, the peak season for aquatic product breeding boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures closed down, total positions were 266,478 lots, a decrease of 57,490 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures closed up, total positions were 555,041 lots, a decrease of 9517 lots from the previous week [19] - The top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +24,789 to +15,351, and the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures decreased from - 4491 to - 1970 [26] Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 3510 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 13,550 lots [32] Spot Price and Basis - In Jiangsu, the spot price of rapeseed oil was 9580 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +141 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2450 yuan/ton, up slightly from last week, and the basis was - 183 yuan/ton [38][44] Futures Monthly Spread - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was +66 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread was +310 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and meal 09 contracts was 3.585, and the average spot price ratio was 3.91 [53] Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - Rapeseed - soybean oil 09 contract spread was 1453 yuan/ton (narrowed this week), rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract spread was 757 yuan/ton (significantly narrowed this week). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract spread was 343 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 290 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68] 3. Industrial Chain Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 4, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 200,000 tons, a 33.33% increase. Estimated arrivals in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 10, the import and pressing profit was +481 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed pressing volume was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 8.56%. In May 2025, rapeseed imports were 335,500 tons, a 26.12% year - on - year decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 859,000 tons, a 2.88% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 111,200 tons, a 20.31% year - on - year decrease [91] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,404,000 tons, and as of May 31, catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 146,000 tons, an 8.60% decrease [95][99] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 5000 tons, a 41.86% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed meal imports were 194,700 tons, a 36.06% year - on - year decrease [103][107] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [111] 4. Options Market - As of July 11, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 18.85%, a 1.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in a seasonal off - season for demand, with high egg - laying hen存栏量, significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and sufficient egg supply. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, as prices reach a relatively low level, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing the存栏预期. Near - month futures prices are generally weak, while far - month contracts are more resistant to decline. The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7] - Market review: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 08 contract was 3442 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 140 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The egg market is in a seasonal off - season, with sufficient supply, high storage costs, and cautious purchasing by dealers. Egg prices are low, and the breeding end is in a loss. But the culling of old hens has accelerated, and far - month contracts are more resistant to decline [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 08 contract of egg futures fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 111,067 lots, a decrease of 69,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,851, compared with - 31,955 last week, and the net short position increased significantly [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 24 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was reported at 2596 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 846 yuan/ton [24] - Futures inter - month spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 32 yuan/500 kilograms, generally at a low level compared to the same period [28] - Related product spot prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.73 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.42 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national laying hen存栏指数 was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [41] - Culling situation: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the national culling age of hens was 506 days [46] - Feed raw material prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2840 yuan/ton [50] - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.58 yuan/hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.72 yuan/kg [57] - Laying hen chick and culled hen prices: As of July 4, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.9 yuan/bird, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 9.4 yuan/kg [59] - Egg monthly export volume: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [65]