苹果产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7744 | 26 10月合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) | 7744 | 26 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 91499 | 2680 仓单数量:苹果(日,张) | 0 | | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 5290 | 430 | | | | 现货市场 | 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | 0 | | | | 4.1 | 0 | 4.5 | | | | 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 | | | | | | 2.6 | 0 | 4.2 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 元/斤) 苹果园面积:全国(年,千公顷) | 1955.77 | -19.58 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market continues to trade in a narrow range and is expected to remain volatile in the short term. The aquaculture peak season boosts demand, but the ample supply of imported soybeans and the substitution advantage of soybean meal suppress its price [2]. - The rapeseed oil market closed higher with increased short - term volatility. Although the domestic supply is ample and inventory pressure is high, the decline in refinery operating rates eases production pressure, and potential tensions in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect imports [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all changed, with rapeseed oil at 9619 yuan/ton (up 142), rapeseed meal at 2578 yuan/ton (down 8), ICE rapeseed at 709.8 CAD/ton (up 11.1), and rapeseed at 5165 yuan/ton (up 215) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads and positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also had changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil at 65 yuan/ton (up 16) and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil at 32659 lots (up 7168) [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related products had fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9630 yuan/ton (up 50), and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. - The oil - meal ratio was 3.75 (down 0.01), and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal also changed [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production was forecasted at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and the import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons [2]. - The import rapeseed crushing profit was 107 yuan/ton (down 95), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed refineries was 11.46% (down 2.8) [2]. Industrial Situation - The import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions changed [2]. - The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 3 tons (up 0.19), and that of rapeseed meal was 3.48 tons (up 0.61) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons (up 98.1), and the monthly social retail sales of catering were 4578.2 billion yuan (up 411.2) [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons (down 87) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility also changed [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the US soybean inventory and planting area data were released [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The US soybean market is relatively stable, and the domestic supply of soybeans is increasing, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing, the substitution of soybean meal weakens its demand [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The palm oil market has inventory concerns, and the US fiscal policy supports the development of biodiesel from soybean oil. In China, the supply of vegetable oil is ample, but the decline in refinery operating rates eases the output pressure, and Sino - Canadian relations may affect rapeseed imports [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. With electricity price cuts in the southwest region, large - scale factories have startup expectations, and small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans, leading to a continuous loose supply. [2] - The demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is slowing down. Organic silicon enterprises are reducing production, polysilicon enterprises are operating at reduced loads, and aluminum alloy enterprises are in a passive de - stocking phase. [2] - Today, industrial silicon rebounded near the 60 - day moving average with record - high trading volume. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long term as the fundamental situation has not improved. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, up 445 yuan; the main contract position is 386,361 lots, up 25,285 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 60,569 lots, down 3,026 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 51,916 lots, down 221 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is - 5 yuan, down 30 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the Si main contract basis is 440 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,200 tons, down 800 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kilogram, down 0.03 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 67.17%, down 1.23 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - After a short - term boost from the installation rush, the price of photovoltaic glass has entered a downward range again. Leading enterprises may initiate a new round of joint production cuts to stabilize prices. Some photovoltaic glass enterprises are reducing production or cold - repairing due to low demand and continuous losses, resulting in a decline in overall production capacity. [2] - The "Beautiful Big Bill" proposed by US Senate Republican Leader Thune restricts new energy, affecting the demand in the new energy industry. Under the guidance of the Sixth Financial and Economic Commission of the Central Committee, leading photovoltaic enterprises have cut production by 30%, causing polysilicon to hit the daily limit and driving up the price of industrial silicon. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan producing area, there are still weather disturbances, with strong resistance in raw material procurement and firm procurement prices. In the Hainan producing area, there is excessive precipitation, hindering the progress of rubber tapping operations, and the increase in raw material supply on the island is slow, lower than the same period in previous years. Supported by rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a price - increasing state for raw material procurement [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate significantly. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory significantly. Downstream enterprises mainly continue to digest inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire enterprises arranged production suspension due to external factors, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises. The operation of all - steel tire enterprises was mostly stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term overhaul plans, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is still expected to decline [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 14,125 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,275 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 860 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 65 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 156,685 lots, a decrease of 2,925 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,945 lots, a decrease of 1,630 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 286 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 139 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 189,150 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 27,418 tons, an increase of 201 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,000 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,550 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 8.2 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 137.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 14.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.86 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 22.23 million tons, a decrease of 2.64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, an increase of 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, an increase of 0.73 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.36%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.84%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.82%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.82%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little change in the impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%; the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the delivery rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the delivery rate increased by 0.28 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight increase of 4% from May this year, and an increase of about 29% compared with 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、海关总署、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 温，不过天气多变，可能导致盘面反复波动，持续关注。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 红枣产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 9675 | -35 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 114924 | -9740 0 | | | 期货前20名持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Copper fluctuates at a high level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index continues to operate in the negative range, but the long - term contract TC has improved, and the tight supply of copper concentrates has eased. The supply is stable with a slight increase, but domestic supply has tightened due to increased export intentions. The demand is seasonally weak, leading to low trading activity in the spot market. Social inventory remains stable at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, and the copper ore supply is expected to improve. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with a converging red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Copper is 80,540 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,937 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Copper is 223,122 lots, down 861 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are 5,895 lots, down 8,048 lots. The LME copper inventory is 91,250 tons, up 625 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,550 tons, down 19,264 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 25,097 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,990 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,955 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 49 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 30 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 450 yuan/ton, up 885 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 116.30 dollars/ton, down 65.39 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 44.81 dollars/kiloton, down 0.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 71,250 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,950 yuan/metal ton, up 690 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, and the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,039.86 billion yuan, up 631.69 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 36,233.84 billion yuan, up 8,504.27 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,235,000,000 pieces, up 68,000,000 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 9.21%, down 0.15%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.43%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 15.91%, up 0.0168. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.68, up 0.0444 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to May this year, the added value of large - scale light industry enterprises increased by 7% year - on - year, with an operating income of 9.27 trillion yuan. The retail sales of furniture products increased by 21.4% year - on - year, and that of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 30.2% year - on - year. In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May. In June, BYD's sales volume was 382,500 vehicles, up 11.9% year - on - year; Leapmotor's delivery volume was 48,006 vehicles, up more than 138% year - on - year; Seres' sales volume was 46,086 vehicles, up 4.44% year - on - year; Li Auto's delivery volume was 36,279 vehicles, down 24% year - on - year; XPeng Motors' delivery volume was 34,611 vehicles, up 224% year - on - year. Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 25,000 vehicles, and NIO's delivery volume was 24,925 vehicles, up 17.5% year - on - year. The Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy without Trump's tariff policy. He did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, and most Fed members expect another rate cut later this year. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, still in the contraction range for four consecutive months, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and the price - paid index approaching the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation [2].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,191 | +55↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1595758 | +73130↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 51,339 | +3521↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -6 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460 yuan/ton in the short - term. The recent domestic methanol production has a slight increase as the output of restored capacity is more than that of overhauled and reduced - production capacity. The enterprise inventory has rapidly accumulated this week due to the unexpected recovery of some olefin plants in the northwest region while the supporting methanol plants operate normally. The port inventory has a narrow - range fluctuation, with the East China region accumulating inventory and the South China region reducing inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefin industry's operating rate has declined slightly last week and may continue to decrease as the second - phase of Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin is expected to shut down for maintenance this week [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2404 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 736,161 lots, down 20,566 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 89,335 lots, up 13,136 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,885, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2460 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1990 yuan/ton, up 47.5 yuan/ton. The East - West price difference is 470 yuan/ton, down 107.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 56 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 283 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 67 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 49.6 tons, up 5.9 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 17.45 tons, up 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is 67.74 yuan/ton, down 222.49 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 341,600 tons, down 25,800 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.31%, up 2.66 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 48.95%, down 1.44 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 9.16%, up 0.5 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid is 95.35%, up 7.02 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 64.4%, up 0.69 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 87.41%, down 1.81 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 940 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 29.35%, down 0.58 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 25.04%, down 0.27 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 17.08%, down 2.51 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, up 10,700 tons or 3.14% from the previous period; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 241,300 tons, up 500 tons or 0.23% from the previous period. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, up 3,200 tons from the previous data. As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 87.96%, down 1.12 percentage points [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and some spinning enterprises in a state of inventory accumulation and poor profitability, which affects raw material procurement willingness [2]. - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking speed is slow due to the off - season. The market is generally oscillating slightly stronger, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,805 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 30,048 lots, a decrease of 2,088 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 269 lots, a decrease of 59 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton is 560,465 lots, a decrease of 2,771 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,405 lots, an increase of 382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,190, a decrease of 21; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,163 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,688 yuan/ton, down 221 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,925 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,409 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,714 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,257 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 803 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773,700 US dollars, an increase of 197,117,900 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177,300 US dollars, an increase of 5,210,900 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.37%, a decrease of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.8%, a decrease of 0.02% [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, compared with 47% the previous week and 50% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US in 2025 is 10.12 million acres, higher than the previous market forecast of 9.735 million acres. The actual cotton planting area in the US in 2024 was 11.183 million acres [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]