Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current jujube market is at a critical period of transition between the old and new seasons, with prices in the sales areas showing small fluctuations. The jujube in the main production areas has not been harvested on a large scale yet and is expected to start after the frost. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes. The inventory in the sample points continues to decline. As the new season approaches, some merchants are actively selling their inventory to raise funds for the new - season acquisition. With the cooling weather, the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected that the jujube market will fluctuate within a range in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 11,385 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 180,042 lots, up 7,595 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,723 lots, down 2,282 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The prices of jujube in various regions are mostly stable. For example, the price of general - grade jujube in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujube in Hebei is 4.75 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade jujube in Hebei has increased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 10.69 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,009 tons, down 158 tons; the monthly jujube export volume is 2,364,893 kg, an increase of 580,729 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 21,264,731 kg, an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of jujube of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived, with reference prices for special - grade jujubes at 10.50 - 11.70 yuan/kg and small first - grade jujubes at 8.40 - 8.90 yuan/kg. The downstream purchased as needed, and the transactions were okay. In Guangdong's Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of jujubes arrived, with the supply continuing. The prices varied according to the quality, and the mainstream prices were temporarily stable [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation of copper concentrates has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the impact of overseas mine disturbances persists, keeping ore prices firm. - On the supply side, due to many maintenance cases and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. In addition, the price of smelting by - product sulfuric acid shows signs of decline, which also affects smelting profits, and the operating rate may decline, leading to a gradual convergence of domestic refined copper supply. - On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, adopting a wait - and - see procurement strategy, resulting in a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. High copper prices suppress downstream demand. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulation. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are near the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converge. The operation suggestion is to lightly go long on dips and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 85,380 yuan/ton, up 990 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,665 dollars/ton, up 60.5 dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 226,910 lots, up 11,337 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 10,843 lots, down 3,770 lots; the LME copper inventory is 137,225 tons, down 225 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 110,240 tons, up 550 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 7,825 tons, up 275 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 41,319 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,630 yuan/ton, up 855 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market 1 copper spot is 85,920 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars. - The basis of the CU main contract is 250 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 16.83 dollars/ton, down 5.67 dollars. - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.97 dollars/kiloton, down 0.61 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,190 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,890 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The output of refined copper is 1.301 billion tons, up 31 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,990 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 71,550 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2219 billion tons, up 52.6 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 379.576 billion yuan, up 48.079 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6.7706 trillion yuan, up 739.681 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4.37 billion pieces, up 119,712.9 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.79%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.96%, up 0.19%. - The at - the - money implied volatility (IV) of the current month is 19.2%, down 0.0153%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.34, up 0.0238 [2]. Industry News - The head of the Financial Stability Bureau of the central bank said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's financial risks are generally controllable, financial institutions operate steadily, and the financial market runs smoothly, providing strong support for high - quality economic development. - Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another rate - cut path. - US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals in a recent interview, suggesting that the door remains open. The Trump administration is quietly relaxing a number of tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" in recent weeks and proposing to exclude more products from tariffs when countries reach trade agreements with the US. - The People's Bank of China and other departments have created two monetary policy tools to support the capital market - stock repurchase and increase re - loans and swap facilities, with an initial quota of 800 billion yuan in total. In the past year, the two monetary tools have injected hundreds of billions of yuan into the market through counter - cyclical adjustment, effectively boosting investors' confidence, reducing the volatility of the A - share market, and enhancing the internal stability of the capital market. - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) 16 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 5428 | | 426415 | -15033 -2137 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) -11 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | 8407 | | -75785 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ -66 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | | 4254 | | 4311 | -66 -87 | | 吨) | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) | | | | | -87 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5396 | | 5470 | | | /吨) | 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) -20 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) | 5740 | /吨) | 5790 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, with less pressure on the supply side. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the sufficient supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market is in a bearish trend overall, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. But the sufficient supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The rapeseed oil price has adjusted at a high level recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should also be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9918 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2350 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 631 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5280 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 370 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 278,716 lots, down 2,655 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 363,641 lots, down 4,227 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 13,361 lots, up 1,764 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 82,063 lots, up 11,892 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7,590 pieces, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 7,702 pieces, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,430 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,600 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Average prices: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,213.75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7,502.74 yuan/ton, up 4.63 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 4.06, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 202 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 80 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 820 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 470 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Output forecast: The annual forecast output of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the forecast annual output of global rapeseed is not provided with a specific change [2]. - Import volume: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 24.66 tons, up 7.06 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 749 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 5 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 6 tons, down 1.67 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 50.9 tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 27.9 tons, down 0.69 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 2.8 tons, down 0.75 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.5 tons, up 1.4 tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 0.22 tons, down 2.96 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 1.09 tons, down 1.32 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Output: The monthly output of feed is 2,927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.22%, up 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.2%, up 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.92%, down 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.92%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.22%, up 1.23 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 24.94%, up 0.31 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.82%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.72%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 17 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, and the rapeseed harvest in the Canadian prairies was nearly completed. The November rapeseed futures contract fell 1.40 Canadian dollars, and the most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract fell 1.20 Canadian dollars [2]. - Due to favorable weather conditions, the harvest in the US Midwest is advancing actively. The expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its market price. The China - US trade relationship has not improved significantly, and China has not ordered US soybeans for the current year, so the export pressure of US soybeans remains. However, the crushing volume of US soybeans has increased significantly, supporting the price of US soybeans. The US government is in a shutdown state, with a lack of data and a cautious market [2]. - The Indonesia government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the biodiesel blending volume in the US in September increased month - on - month, which is beneficial to the international oil market [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/10/20 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1216.00 | +37.00↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1710.00 | +34.00↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 851140.00 | +19777.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 48801.00 | -331.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -84892.00 | -6718.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -4146.00 | +38.00↑ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 71.50 | -11.00↓ J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 148.00 | 0.00 | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range expected to be around 2300 - 2420. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was repaired last week. This week, the supply of caustic soda is expected to increase. The short - term caustic soda consumption demand of downstream industries is not expected to shrink significantly, but there are co - existing expectations of new alumina capacity launch and cost - based production cuts of existing units in the fourth quarter. If alumina production cuts are implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new units. The pressure of caustic soda warehouse receipts has eased [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the contract closing prices of caustic soda in January and May were 2380 yuan/ton and 2482 yuan/ton respectively, both up 36 yuan. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1774 lots, up 15647 lots. The main contract's open interest was 122212 lots, down 14026 lots, and the trading volume was 298867 lots, down 119034 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2563.5 yuan/ton, down 30.25 yuan. The basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 644 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 50.5 yuan/ton, up 50.5 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2835 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% week - on - week to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% week - on - week to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% week - on - week to 67.26%. As of October 16th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.25% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83%. From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton. High inventory exerts significant pressure on the urea market. With the urea price falling below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about replenishing at low prices, and they are maintaining a strategy of buying on dips. However, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and urea shipments have slowed down. The probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high. The agricultural demand in the north has been postponed, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 322,187 lots, an increase of 8,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 43,322 lots, a decrease of 3,148 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,238 lots, a decrease of 56 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1590 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1550 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1560 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), and in Anhui is 1570 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 370 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 385 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. The enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a decrease of 5.02%. The daily urea output is 188,600 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly urea output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32%. The melamine operating rate is 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 167 yuan/ton, and the monthly output of compound fertilizer is 531.33 tons, a decrease of 19 tons. The weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 109.21 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. As of October 16, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 132.05 tons, a decrease of 6.97 tons compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The提货 volume of the downstream general trade warehouse has increased significantly. Coupled with the decline in rubber prices, the downstream replenishment sentiment has improved, and the overall出库 volume of the warehouse is greater than the inbound volume, resulting in a destocking of the total inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of most enterprises has returned to the pre - holiday level, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,100 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 14,810 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 12,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,630 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 148,360 lots, down 281 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 63,027 lots, down 1,972 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,860 lots, down 508 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber is - 10,599 lots, down 1,637 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 131,800 tons, down 3,200 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange are 41,228 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,028 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is - 1,782 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, down 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.9 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 50.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.95%, up 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.55%, up 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.54%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 19th to October 25th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has less impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to its subsequent development [2]. - As of October 19th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51% [2]. - As of October 16th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply scale of the polysilicon industry remains large, with partial corporate production cuts falling short of expectations, leading to continued accumulation of social inventory and increasing supply - side pressure [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with sluggish demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, reduced demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers, and narrowing industry gross margins [2]. - The European market has high inventory, suppressing import demand, while the US tariff policy's loosening only drives the growth of energy - storage system exports, which cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets show a surge in demand, buffering the decline in the demand side [2]. - If supply pressure continues to increase, high inventory will exert significant downward pressure on prices. Polysilicon prices have started to decline, mainly affected by market sentiment. With some factories planning to stop production in the dry season, the market sentiment's feedback needs to be observed. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 50,340 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the main position volume is 56,806 lots, down 11,421 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,490 yuan, up 35 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,775 yuan/ton, down 2,135 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 175 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.53 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,565 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the spot price is 9,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons, and the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69.857 million kilowatts, up 3.475 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 units, up 38,589,900 units; the monthly import volume is 21,440,200 units, up 6,914,600 units, and the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/unit, down 0.05 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged [2]. Industry News - Affected by recent meetings and the electricity price during the wet/dry season, some polysilicon bases in Southwest China have gradually reduced raw - material input and are expected to completely stop production from late October to early November, with the involved production capacity being about 320,000 tons/year [2]. - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments have adjusted the value - added tax policy for wind power generation and other industries [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high operation and weak demand, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and there may be a correction after a phased rebound in the market. Technically, for V2601, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average around 4691 and the pressure of the 20 - day moving average around 4836 [3]. - This week, a large number of PVC devices are set to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down devices is limited. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to return to a high level. With fewer maintenance devices and new production capacity coming online in October, the supply pressure is relatively high [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and product orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines [3]. - The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased, while that of the ethylene process has decreased. Due to the larger decline in spot prices than costs, losses in both processes have deepened. Currently, calcium carbide enterprises are in deep losses, and the cost - side support has been weakened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4702 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the trading volume is 715,268 lots, down 43,758 lots; the open interest is 1,206,166 lots, down 6,761 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 905,720 lots, down 1,642 lots; the short positions are 1,042,891 lots, up 1,316 lots; the net long positions are - 137,171 lots, down 2,958 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,618.85 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,707.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 92 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 549 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 192 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; the inventory in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; the inventory in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4,377.94 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3,588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.93%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 53.94%. PVC downstream operating rate increased by 9.38% week - on - week to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% week - on - week to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% week - on - week to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% week - on - week to 103.38 tons. V2601 first rose and then fell, closing at 4,702 yuan/ton. Affected by the maintenance of some devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased significantly last week. After the National Day, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles increased week - on - week. Inventory decreased slightly [3]. - From October 11th to 17th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,142 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,432 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3].