| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5187 | 19 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 473871 | 1268 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 13715 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -78060 | -1109 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 454 | 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 吨) 现货市场 | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 4057 | 8 | 4108 | 8 10 | | | | | 吨) | | | | | | 5139 | 10 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5206 | | | | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5155 | 0 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) /吨) | 5270 | 0 | | | 广 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to high开工, high inventory, weak demand, and limited cost support. The V2605 daily K - line should pay attention to the support near 4860 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of PVC is 4913 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan; the trading volume is 1121915 lots, a decrease of 38791 lots; the open interest is 1039839 lots, a decrease of 20469 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 998443 lots, a decrease of 29378 lots; the short positions are 1137859 lots, an increase of 10911 lots; the net long positions are - 139416 lots, a decrease of 40289 lots [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - The prices of ethylene - based PVC in East China and South China are 4890 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan) and 4930 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively; the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC are 4716.92 yuan/ton (down 15.77 yuan) and 4731.88 yuan/ton (down 26.25 yuan) respectively. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia are 680 and 660 US dollars/ton respectively (both unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 201 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan [3]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2750 yuan/ton (unchanged), 2715 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 2541 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 402 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 433 US dollars/ton (up 5 US dollars) respectively; the CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 189 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 194 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively [3]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.74%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 80%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 75.74%, a decrease of 3.05 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 57.65 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons, including 52.74 million tons in East China (an increase of 1.12 million tons) and 4.91 million tons in South China (an increase of 0.37 million tons) [3]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative new housing construction area is 58769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5313.26 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate construction area is 659890.29 million square meters, an increase of 3824.09 million square meters; the cumulative real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, an increase of 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 19.9%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.93%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.9%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points [3]. 3.7. Industry News - From January 17th to 23rd, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.89% to 78.74%. The downstream product operating rate of PVC increased by 0.95% to 44.86%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 1.6% to 37%, and the profile operating rate increased by 1.61% to 31.52%. As of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory was 117.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.92%. From January 16th to 22nd, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC nationwide increased to 5175 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 4924 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased to - 800 yuan/ton with deeper losses, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased to - 49 yuan/ton [3].

，从企业库存变化趋势来看，近期尿素工厂基本维持产销平衡，其中因局部农业需求的启动，农业流向适 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 当增加，考虑到春节前工业开工下降，春节前储备需求为主，库存仍有小幅上涨趋势。UR2605合约短线预 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 计在1770-1830区间波动。 免责声明 尿素产业日报 2026-01-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1799 | 9 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 29 | 7 -9977 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 260290 | 15430 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -27038 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 12699 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1750 | ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2026-01-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14940 | 375 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20725 | 305 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -142878 | 14068 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -1857 | -255 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 823272 | 36619 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 10465 | -710 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 10209 | 4 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 15933 | -20 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 21365 | 0 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) | | | | | | 12502 | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of sufficient supply and temporarily stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in social inventories. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 axis and the red bar expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,060 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 13,169 dollars/ton, up 162.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 260 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 227,447 lots, down 2,310 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 66,045 lots, up 3,756 lots. LME copper inventory is 172,350 tons, up 1,825 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 225,937 tons, up 12,422 tons. The warrant of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 148,038 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 101,660 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 101,580 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 23 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 19.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,400 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 93.8 dollars/ton, down 22.73 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, up 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 49.79 dollars/kiloton, down 3.26 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 91,870 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan; in Yunnan is 92,570 yuan/metal ton, down 30 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 69,040 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,100 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, up 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 5,603.9 billion yuan, up 779.56 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, up 4,197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 25.86%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.97%, down 0.41%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 25.33%, down 0.0169%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.62, down 0.0942 [2] Industry News - The Conference Board data shows that the US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014. US Census Bureau data indicates that the US population growth slowed in 2025, increasing by only 1.8 million (0.5%) to nearly 342 million. The "Fed whisperer" says the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts with an unclear path for resuming. China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2025 was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit of these enterprises turned from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. The central bank data shows that at the end of Q4 2025, the RMB real estate loan balance was 51.95 trillion yuan, a decrease of 963.6 billion yuan for the year. The real estate development loan balance was 13.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 357.5 billion yuan for the year. The individual housing loan balance was 37.01 trillion yuan, a decrease of 676.8 billion yuan for the year [2]

国债期货日报 2026/1/28 3、国家统计局：2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982亿元，比上年增长 0.6%；12月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%。国家统计局称，2025年，各地区各部 门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加快推进新型工业化，推动工业经济稳定向好运行；全 年工业企业利润实现增长，扭转了连续三年下降态势，其中装备制造业、高技术制造业等新动 能支撑作用明显，传统产业利润结构持续优化，工业经济发展质效不断提升。 行业消息 | | 周三国债现券收益率多数下行，到期收益率2-7Y下行0.5-1.3bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率分 | | --- | --- | | | 别下行1.7、1.1bp左右至1.82%、2.25%。周三国债期货集体走强，TS、TF、T、TL主力合约 | | | 上涨0.01%、0.06%、0.05%、0.07%%。资金面边际宽松，DR007加权利率回落至1.55%附 | | | 近震荡。国内基本面端，我国2025年第四季度GDP同比增长4.5%，全年GDP增速达5.0%，圆 | | | 满实现预期增长目标。12月工增高于市场预期，固投规模持续收敛 ...

塑料产业日报 2026-01-28 计震荡走势，日度K线关注6900附近支撑与7030附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6967 | 68 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7025 | 78 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6967 | 68 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7015 | 85 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 559235 | 62270 持仓 ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13265 | 220 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 76340 | -3155 | | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | -5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 9420 | 100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12800 | -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 12800 | -100 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 12800 | 东(日,元/吨) -100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 12800 | -100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -365 | 东(日,元/吨) -220 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to have a short - term adjustment, with attention on the battle for MA10, in the range of 14,100 - 14,800 yuan/ton. The market's long - position atmosphere is decreasing as the position volume decreases and the price corrects [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The 03 - 04 contract spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,482 lots, an increase of 2,264 lots, and the main contract position volume is 123,373 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 39,654 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货 Market - The price of 304/2B coil (cut - edge, Wuxi) is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total nickel - iron output is 21,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons, and the import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 146,100 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,070 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 539,300 tons, an increase of 800 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 95,000 units, an increase of 37,000 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 321,000 units, an increase of 10,000 units. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In December 2026, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual profit increased by 0.6% year - on - year, achieving the first growth in four years. The US government is approaching a shutdown. The Federal Reserve officials are expected to pause interest - rate cuts this week, and there are differences on future interest - rate cuts. In the raw - material end, the raw - material supply of nickel - iron production will face contraction pressure. [2]

生猪产业日报 2026-01-28 合约收跌0.26%。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11270 | -15 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 121223 | -6419 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 426 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -48349 | -1081 | | 现货 ...