置预计稳定运行。成本方面，OPEC增产及全球经济增速放缓使国际油价中长期面临压力，只是俄乌冲突仍 免责声明 塑料产业日报 2025-10-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | 5 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | 5 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6921 | 14 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6952 | 21 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 218340 | 7915 持仓量(日,手) | 562100 | -3312 | | | 1-5价差 | -42 | -9 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 402016 | -1025 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 486393 | -249 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -84377 | -776 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(704 ...

率明显提升，但整体市场表现未见明显转好，为控制库存增加，部分企业仍处灵活控产状态，预计短期企 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 业装置运行平稳为主。br2512合约短线预计在10600-11300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-10-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 10840 -85 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 74828 | | 57827 | | | 合成橡胶12 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid renewed tariff conflicts, market sentiment is significantly affected by trade risks in the short term. The current fundamentals are constrained by insufficient effective demand. With external demand impacted by tariffs, the recovery of domestic demand is crucial for consolidating economic recovery. It is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will further coordinate their efforts. Recently, market risk appetite has declined due to risk aversion, and the bond market has shown an oscillatory recovery trend under the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, alleviating the previous fragile sentiment. Strategically, a band - operation approach is recommended, while closely monitoring Sino - US trade progress and policy trends such as new regulations for bond funds [97]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: This week, all treasury bond futures contracts strengthened. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) rose by 1.67%, 0.29%, 0.12%, and 0.02% respectively. The trading volumes of TS and TF main contracts decreased, while those of T and TL main contracts increased. The open interests of TF, T, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the TS main contract decreased [12][15][21][29]. - **Yield of Treasury Bond Spot**: This week, the yields of short - term treasury bond spots were weak, while those of medium - and long - term ones were strong. The changes in the yields to maturity from 1 - 7Y were around - 0.2 - 1bp. The yields to maturity of 10Y and 30Y decreased by about 0.2 and 2.3bp to 1.74% and 2.07% respectively [8]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In September, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 904.5 billion US dollars. The central bank planned to conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan 6 - month - term repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 4000 billion yuan for the month. In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, with the core CPI rising 1% year - on - year. The PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased 2.3% year - on - year. At the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year [32]. - **Overseas News**: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank might end balance - sheet reduction in the next few months. The expected deterioration of the labor market supported investors' expectations of another interest - rate cut this month. The US Treasury Secretary said that if China stopped its strict rare - earth export control plan, the US might extend the three - month exemption from additional tariffs on China. There were differences among Fed officials regarding the pace of interest - rate cuts [33]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: This week, the spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed. The spreads between the 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts, and between the 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The spread between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year contract oscillated, and that of the 30 - year contract narrowed. The spread between the current and next quarters of the 5 - year contract narrowed, and that of the 2 - year contract widened [41][47][51][58]. - **Changes in Main Positions of Treasury Bond Futures**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week Shibor rate decreased, while the overnight, 1 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates increased. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.41%. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields both narrowed slightly [68][72]. - **Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 7894 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 11710 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3819 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.41% [77]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 13,313.04 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 9909.84 billion yuan, with a net financing of 3404.23 billion yuan [79]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0949, with a cumulative increase of 99 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond oscillated downward, and the VIX index rose significantly. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium decreased slightly [85][88][93]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In September, inflation continued to recover, with the core CPI rising to 1% year - on - year driven by gold prices, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continuing to narrow. Social financing grew steadily in September, but the support of government bonds for social financing weakened. Credit growth was lower than expected, and enterprises' long - term investment willingness remained weak. Some residents' deposits flowing back promoted a significant rebound in the M1 growth rate. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of imports rebounded unexpectedly, and exports to major economies such as ASEAN and the EU continued to grow [96]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US announced plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on China, but then released multiple signals of easing. The US government remained shut down, and many key economic data were postponed. The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest - rate cut in October remained firm [96].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trade situation has a negative impact on the market sentiment. A - share major indices and stock index futures have declined, while treasury bond futures have strengthened. Commodity indices are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term [6]. - The Fed's dovish tone, tariff tensions, and the US government shutdown have weakened the US dollar. The euro remains strong, and the yen is mainly boosted by the weakening of the US dollar [6][10]. - The rise in international gold prices has driven up the core CPI, and the Chinese government's subsidy funds are expected to boost consumption. The trade situation is uncertain due to Trump's actions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 2.22%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures fell 2.35%. A - share major indices fell collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were weaker. The market was affected by the trade situation, and the allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.06%, and the main 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.31%. Treasury bond futures strengthened, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind commodity index rose 6.93%, and the China Securities commodity futures price index rose 0.49%. Except for gold, other commodities performed poorly, and the allocation suggestion is to mainly watch [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar rose 0.89%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract rose 0.86%. The US dollar may continue to be weak in the short term, and the allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes stabilizing market expectations; the Chinese government imposes special port fees on US ships; the US threatens to impose 100% tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responds [14]. - **International News**: The US lowers EU auto tariffs to 15%; Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year; the IMF warns that global public debt will reach a new high by 2029 and raises the world economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year, M1 growth rate was 7.2% year - on - year, and M2 growth rate was 8.4% year - on - year [17]. - **US**: The October NAHB housing market index was 37 [17]. - **EU**: The August industrial output monthly rate in the eurozone was - 1.2% [17]. - **UK**: The August three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.3%, and the August manufacturing output monthly rate was 0.7% [17]. - **Germany**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0.2% [17]. - **France**: The September CPI monthly rate was - 1% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 20**: China's one - year loan prime rate, September social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, September industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, and Germany's September PPI monthly rate [81]. - **October 22**: Japan's September commodity export year - on - year, UK's September CPI monthly rate, and September retail price index monthly rate [81]. - **October 23**: US initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the eurozone's October consumer confidence index preliminary value [81]. - **October 24**: Japan's September core CPI year - on - year, UK's September seasonally adjusted retail sales monthly rate, France's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value, and US September unadjusted CPI and core CPI year - on - year [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.94%, while polysilicon prices rose by 6.89%. The industrial silicon futures market declined due to weak downstream demand despite cost - driven production cuts in the dry season. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity boosted polysilicon prices [4]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, production costs are rising in Sichuan and Yunnan during the transition to the dry season, leading to production cuts. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia are on standby, and some Xinjiang factories are actively producing. On the demand side, the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a negative overall demand for industrial silicon, and high inventory still pressures price [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is large with inventory accumulation, and demand is weak in the domestic photovoltaic industry. Although emerging markets show increasing demand, high inventory may pressure prices downward if supply continues to rise [4]. - Operationally, the main contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss range of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon will fluctuate in the short - term, ranging from 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures declined, and polysilicon futures rose. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity was the key factor for the rise in polysilicon prices [4]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply - side production cuts are occurring in some regions due to cost increases, while some are ready to start production. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and high inventory remains a problem. For polysilicon, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and emerging markets buffer the decline [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded in the range of 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon should be traded in the range of 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss of 46000 - 55000 [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon futures and spot both declined, and the basis decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 745 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate increased. As of October 9, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 8.58 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.09% [4][12][19]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the price of polysilicon futures and spot was flat, and the basis weakened. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 52.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 200 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 175 yuan/g [16]. 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon remained stable, but the electricity price increased near the dry season, leading to rising costs. From October 10 to 16, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest and northwest was stable at 0.30 yuan/kWh, but it is expected to rise [21][24]. - **Industrial Silicon Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50291 lots, a decrease of 483 lots from the previous week [28]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the weekly output was 4.56 tons, a decrease of 1.73%, and the operating rate was 69.67%, a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price, cost, and profit increased. The spot price of organic silicon DMC was 11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week, the profit was - 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton, and the cost was 11740 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [35][39]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy remained flat, and the inventory continued to decline. As of October 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the inventory was 7.44 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [41][46]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained flat. As of October 16, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.48 yuan/piece, and the battery cell price was 0.31 yuan/watt, both unchanged from last week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be slightly flat [48][50]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory increased. As of October 16, 2025, the profit was 10980 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40780 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 27.5 tons [59].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 红枣市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 未来交易提示： 1、现货价格2、消费端 3 「 期现市场情况」 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约2.47%。 行情展望：当前红枣市场处于新旧季交替的关键期，销区市场价格稳中小幅波 动。主产区红枣尚未集中下树，预计霜降后陆续展开。关注收购进度及价格变 化。据 Mysteel 农产品调研数据统计，截止2025年10月16日红枣本周36家样本 点物理库存在9009吨，较上周减少158吨，环比减少1.72%，同比增加94.58%，样 本点库存继续下降。新季即将下树，部分客商积极出售库存货源，以回笼资金 备战新季收购。随着天气转凉，下游拿货积极性有所提高，市场交易氛围提升。 预计后市红枣区间波动为主。 策略建议：操作上，建议郑枣2601合约短期观望。 「 期现市场情况」 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile trend, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.38%. After the U.S. government shutdown, the market is pricing in the expectation of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates. With the increase in lead production, prices are under pressure [5]. - In the short - term, the increase in primary lead production is relatively limited. Although the profit of secondary lead has recovered and the production is expected to increase in October, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow recovery stage. The overall inventory increase indicates a slowdown in demand. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. - The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai lead main contract 2511 is expected to rise first and then fall, with a volatile range of 17,000 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,800 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2511 fell 0.38%. After the U.S. government shutdown, the market is trading on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the increase in production has pressured prices [5]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the processing fee of lead concentrate is currently stable. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the production of primary lead has limited short - term growth. The supply of waste batteries is tight, but the profit of secondary lead has recovered, and the production is expected to increase in October. With the expected increase in imported lead arrivals, the supply of secondary lead and overall lead may increase next week. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and the demand in the traditional lead - acid battery industry has not fully shown the seasonal peak effect. However, the energy - storage demand in emerging fields is good, and overall demand is slowly recovering. The overall inventory increase indicates a slowdown in demand. Next week, the Shanghai lead futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern and may fall after a short - term rise [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The Shanghai lead main contract 2511 is expected to rise first and then fall, with a volatile range of 17,000 - 17,400 and a stop - loss range of 16,800 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic and foreign futures prices of Shanghai lead decreased, and the ratio increased. As of October 16, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price was $1,970/ton, and the active - contract lead futures closing price was 17,100 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.68 [7][11]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic and foreign premium and discount of lead futures weakened. As of October 16, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 200 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $44.99/ton [13][15]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory increased, domestic inventory decreased, warehouse receipt quantity increased, and the overall lead inventory increased. As of October 16, 2025, the total lead inventory was 3.38 tons (down 0.2 tons), the LME lead total inventory was 252,000 tons (up 15,000 tons), and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt quantity was 32,007 tons (up 1,939 tons) [30][34]. 3.3 Industrial Chain - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises increased slightly, and production increased. As of October 9, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 83.56% (up 1.46% week - on - week), and the weekly production was 37,300 tons (up 20 tons week - on - week) [19][21]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate and production of secondary lead enterprises remained flat, and the recycling of scrap batteries increased. As of October 9, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 17,000 tons (up 0 tons week - on - week), and the average capacity utilization rate was 44.85% (up 0% week - on - week) [25][28]. - **Supply - Trade**: In August 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 43.62% month - on - month and increased by 408.31% year - on - year. Refined lead imports were 3,417 tons. Lead alloy imports were 12,784 tons. Lead concentrate imports were about 122,300 tons, up 3.6% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year. The total lead ingot imports were 13,450 tons, up 106.70% month - on - month and down 41.98% year - on - year [36][38]. - **Demand - Processing Fee**: The domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with a slight positive impact on production. As of October 10, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrate was 380 yuan/ton, and the average import processing fee (Pb60) was - $90/kiloton [41][43]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In September 2025, automobile sales increased. The overall automobile sales were 3.226 million, up 12.9% month - on - month and 14.9% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, up 24.6% year - on - year. The lithium - replacing - lead process is accelerating, leading to a decline in lead demand [45][48]. - **Demand - Recycling and Price**: The recycling price of scrap batteries increased, and the price of lead - antimony alloy decreased. As of October 15, 2025, the average price of scrap lead (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan/group. As of October 16, 2025, the price of lead - antimony alloy in Shanghai was 19,630 yuan/ton [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. The price of the main contract of cotton yarn futures 2601 increased by about 0.49% [5][12][23]. - In the domestic market, the estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 727,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, and an upward adjustment of 62,000 tons from the previous period. The current mainstream price of new cotton is around 6.1 yuan/kg, and the cost is still generally supported. The operating rate of textile enterprises is still low, and the peak season continues to show weak performance. It is expected that the replenishment enthusiasm of textile enterprises will be low in the later period. In the new year, the centralized acquisition and processing of cotton will bring a large number of hedging needs, with significant upward pressure and cost support below. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.16%. As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 69,367 lots, a decrease of 751 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 114,787 lots, an increase of 2020 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 45,420 lots, an increase of 2771 lots from the previous week [12]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The current international cotton spot price is 74.85 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.2 cents/lb from the previous week [16]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract slightly increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.08%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.49%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 82,062 lots, and those in cotton yarn futures were - 447 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 2653 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were 0 lots [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,679 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,440 yuan/ton [41][51]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of October 16, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,851 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan/ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 786 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,813 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week [56][59]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. The industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was stable with a slight decrease. In August 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6% [62][68]. - **Demand Side**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 days. In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [71][76][80]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week, but no specific data is given [81]. - **Stock Market**: There is a graph of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa (600359), but no specific analysis is provided [84].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 白糖市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑糖2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约1.53%。 行情展望：据巴西蔗糖工业协会Unica称，2025年9月下半月巴西中南部地区压榨 甘蔗4086万吨，同比增长5.18%；产糖314万吨，同比增长10.76%，制糖比例为 51.17%，高于上年同期的47.73%；9月下半月巴西甘蔗压榨及产糖同比增长为主， 但制糖比回落幅度较大，市场担忧情绪有所缓和，不过总体受增产压制，原糖价格 反弹乏力。国内现货价格持续下调，成交相对一般，下游需求处于季节性回落中， 预计后期销糖进度放缓。不过盘面价格受成本支撑逐渐显现，预计价格震荡为主， 关注9月进口糖数据公布。 交易策略：操作上，建议郑糖2601合约短期观望。 图2、CFTC美糖非商业净持仓情况 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 未来关注因素： 1、国内产销情况 2、新季产量预估 3 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 菜籽类市场周报 需求端支撑不足 菜粕继续下跌 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：关注60日均线支撑情况，中长期仍偏多参与为主。 3 Ø 菜油： Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货高位回落，01合约收盘价9861元/吨，较前一周-200元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：加菜籽收割工作接近尾声，丰产基本兑现，对加菜籽价格带来一定压力。其它方面， 印尼政府计划在明年下半年将生柴提升至B50，利好棕榈油市场，但MPOB数据显示，截至9月末， 马来西亚的棕榈油库存为较前月增加7.2%至236万吨，已经连续七个月增长，且库存水平接近约 两年来最高水平。国内方面，对加拿大菜籽反倾销政策的初裁落地，预计四季度进口菜籽供应将 结构性收紧，菜油也将继续维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑。不过，豆油供应充裕，且替代优 势良好，使得 ...