1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and the total supply is shrinking. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a slight destocking trend, with the bonded warehouse destocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates, with the semi - steel tire's capacity utilization increasing slightly and the full - steel tire's decreasing slightly. It is expected that the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will run weakly and steadily. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 15,850 - 16,500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,205 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,085 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are 176,097 hands and 49,072 hands respectively, down 5,119 hands and 5,134 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are - 44,112 and - 9,365 respectively, down 631 and 341 respectively. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 110,470 tons and 55,843 tons respectively, up 600 tons and 504 tons respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,945 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 355 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,080 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,550 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 465 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.62%, down 2.9 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.56%, up 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.8 days, up 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 48.53 days, up 0.61 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.63%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.92%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.92%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2]

研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 白糖产业日报 2026-01-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5168 | -4 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 472603 | 4628 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 13715 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -76951 | -1387 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 132 | 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 现货市场 | | 4049 | 8 | 4100 | 8 10 | | 吨) | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) 11 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 5129 | | 5196 | | | /吨) | 云南昆明白 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to maintain a situation of high production and high inventory in the short - term. The SH2603 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the range around 1900 - 2000. The 03 contract has limited room for rebound, while the 05 contract is stronger due to the trading of maintenance expectations. The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain loose, and the low profit of the alumina industry restricts procurement demand and increases the expectation of production cuts in the future. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 1951 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The main contract position is 263,142 lots, an increase of 328 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 29,970 lots, a decrease of 457 lots. The main contract trading volume is 621,860 lots, a decrease of 268,681 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2426 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan, and the May contract is 2213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 1884 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The basis is - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 242.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina is 2555 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.6 Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons and above was 87.7%, a 1.0% increase from the previous week. From January 17th to 23rd, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.65% to 85.18%. From January 16th to 22nd, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 88.43%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 56.54%. As of January 22nd, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 509,600 tons (wet tons), a 0.49% decrease from the previous period and a 105.77% increase year - on - year. From January 16th to 22nd, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 209 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,289 | -13↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1508428 | -6369↓ | | 期货市场 | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -20,295 | +10664↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | +1↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 184526 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 163 | +4↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,310.00 | -10.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | 0.00 | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,310.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,170.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 21.00 | +3.00↑ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Technically, for the daily K - line of L2605, pay attention to the support near 6780 and the resistance near 6955. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6899 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 1 - month contract closing price is 6947 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 5 - month contract closing price is 6899 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 9 - month contract closing price is 6930 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan. [2] - The trading volume is 496,965 lots, down 115,013 lots; the open interest is 520,760 lots, up 5,747 lots. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 48, up 9. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 510,998 lots, up 6,394 lots; the sell order volume is 533,068 lots, up 5,465 lots; the net buy order volume is - 22,070 lots, up 929 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 6,841.3 yuan/ton, down 21.3 yuan; in East China, it is 6,935.81 yuan/ton, up 7.21 yuan. The basis is - 57.7, up 14.69. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore is 61.19 US dollars/barrel, up 0.92; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan is 573.25 US dollars/ton, up 8. [2] - The CFR middle - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 686 US dollars/ton, down 5; in Northeast Asia, it is 706 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 84.67%, up 3.08 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 44.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 29%, down 0.33 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 36.32%, down 0.61 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 13.76%, down 0.01; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.96%, up 0.19. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene is 16.46%, up 1.06; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.46%, up 1.07. [2] Industry News - From January 16th to 22nd, China's total polyethylene production was 698,900 tons, a 4.34% increase from last week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 84.67%, a 3.07 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 1.4% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 0.6%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.2%. [2] - As of January 21st, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 335,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from last week; the social inventory of PE was 477,400 tons, a 1.43% decrease from last week. [2] - From January 16th to 22nd, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.22% to 7,202 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 1 yuan/ton to - 530 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.54% to 6,524 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 27 yuan/ton to 244 yuan/ton. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2605 contract rebounded but was blocked. Macroscopically, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a new round of tripartite negotiations between Ukraine, the US, and Russia may be held on February 1st. In terms of supply and demand, Australian and Brazilian ports continued the inventory accumulation trend, and spot resources were relatively abundant. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 - axis, and the red bars were shrinking. Iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, molten iron production remained below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore port inventories continued to increase. Overall, refer to the pressure around 800 and pay attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 788 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the position of the I main contract was 571,053 lots, up 2,878 lots; the I 5 - 9 contract spread was 18.5 yuan/ton; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 15,262 lots, up 1,310 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 1,100 lots; the Singapore iron ore main contract quoted 103.85 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 0.32 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 850 yuan/dry ton, down 6 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 846 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 754 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 58 yuan, down 9 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 103.35 US dollars/ton, down 1.30 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.09, up 0.03; the estimated import cost was 831 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 29.783 million tons, up 485,000 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 26.255 million tons, down 2.722 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 174.9653 million tons, up 2.0783 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 93.8882 million tons, up 1.266 million tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) was 119.65 million tons, up 9.11 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 24 days, up 2 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 403,100 tons, up 3,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.76%, up 0.74 percentage points; the iron ore concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 442,700 tons, up 8,300 tons; the BDI index was 1780, up 18; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 21.98 US dollars/ton, up 0.20 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 7.975 US dollars/ton, up 0.12 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 78.66%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.53%, up 0.07 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6.818 million tons, down 169,000 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 19.70%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.51%, down 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.41%, down 0.51 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.53%, down 0.29 percentage points [2] Industry News - From January 19th to January 25th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.783 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 485,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 23.943 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.476 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.374 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.493 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 14.876 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 978,000 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 5.568 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons [2] - From January 19th to January 25th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.255 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.722 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 25.30 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.297 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.381 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.048 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium to long term. The uncertainties in South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the market trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium" [2]. - For the operating range, the upper resistance level of London platinum is $2,800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $2,600 per ounce. The upper resistance level of London palladium is $2,100 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1,900 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 705.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 34.10 yuan. The closing price of the palladium main contract was 523.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 11.10 yuan. - The main - contract positions of platinum were 10,387 hands, a decrease of 277 hands. The main - contract positions of palladium were 3,179 hands, an increase of 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 685.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 47.55 yuan. The average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 480.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 2.00 yuan. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 13.45 yuan per gram, a decrease. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 43.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 13.10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966, a decrease of 243. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003, a decrease of 342. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons. The total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons. The total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.50, a decrease of 0.78. The real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 1.92%, a decrease of 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index was 16.09, an increase of 0.45 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying heavy troops to Iran and many ships are moving towards Iran. A 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran will soon take effect, and a new round of sanctions has been imposed on multiple entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. - Trump said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base in Greenland is located, not involving the US taking over Greenland entirely, but making US military facilities such as the Pituffik Space Base under US sovereign control. - Multiple Democratic US senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, greatly increasing the possibility of a partial "shutdown" of the federal government at the end of January due to lack of funds. - Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve Chairman as early as this week. Rick Rieder, an executive of global asset management giant BlackRock, has quickly become the top candidate, with the probability of his nomination rising from 4% to about 50%. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - January 30, 21:30, US PPI year - on - year (%) - January 28, 02:00, US M2 money supply - January 29, 03:00, Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement - January 29, 21:30, US November trade balance (imports and exports) [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Amid complex global geopolitical situations, gold, as a preferred safe - haven asset, may continue to be boosted. Under the assumption of inflation and employment data stabilizing, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to adopt a dip - buying strategy, while being cautious of short - term high - level pullback risks. The upper resistance for London gold is $5100/oz, and the lower support is $4900/oz; for London silver, the upper resistance is $110/oz, and the lower support is $90/oz [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1148.380 yuan/gram, up 5.1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 28300 yuan/kg, up 1093 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold was 401,545 hands, up 5583 hands; that of Shanghai silver was 1,038,738 hands, up 72,838 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 217,484 hands, up 1664 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 25,473 hands, down 12,972 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 103,029 kg, unchanged; that of Shanghai silver was 544,244 kg, down 29,566 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1144.14 yuan/gram, down 0.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 28,388 yuan/kg, up 896 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.24 yuan/gram, down 5.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kg, down 197 yuan [2] 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1086.53 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,974.40 tons, down 115.58 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 244,770 contracts, down 6468 contracts; for silver, they were 25,214 contracts, down 6846 contracts. The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the annual total demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 97.04, down 0.46; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, down 0.02% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.15, up 0.06; the CBOE gold volatility index was 32.70, up 2.69. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.37, down 0.03; the gold - silver ratio was 46.45, down 3.52 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump said the US was deploying troops to Iran and many ships were moving towards Iran, and a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. The US also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump said the US expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland. Several Democratic senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, with Rick Rieder's nomination probability rising from 4% to about 50%. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 15.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 84.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 0.4% [2] 6. Key Events to Watch - January 28, 02:00: US M2 money supply; January 29, 03:00: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; January 29, 21:30: US November trade balance (imports and exports); January 30, 21:30: US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range and slightly upward adjustment in the short - term, and suggests paying attention to the range of 143,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton [4] - The probability of the US government shutting down again before January 31 has soared to nearly 80%. The import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend due to the rainy season in the Philippines, and the planned reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year and the expected sharp increase in the domestic trade base price in Indonesia lead to concerns about tight raw material supply. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, the production profit has room for profit, so the refined nickel production is expected to rise again. The profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly buys on dips, with high spot premiums; the overseas LME inventory continues to increase. Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustment, the long - position sentiment is cautious, and it is expected to be mainly wide - range and slightly upward [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 146,110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 730 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 18,590 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 120 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 40,119 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 15,899 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 69,268 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 600 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 285,552 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,824 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 50,794 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,614 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 10,788 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,506 tons [3] - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 42,499 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 148,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,700 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 147,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 US dollars/ton; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 US dollars/ton [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the main NI contract is 1,990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,430 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 208.96 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,228.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 44.76 million tons [3] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.36 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of nickel iron is 21,400 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel iron is 99.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10.07 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 53.93 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is willing to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US, and will introduce policies and measures to expand inbound consumption [3] - Zou Lan, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, supports increasing the RMB business fund arrangement scale in Hong Kong from 100 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan [3] - Forecast market data shows that the probability of a new shutdown of the US government is close to 80% [3]

| | 周二国债现券收益率集体走弱，到期收益率1.7Y上行0.35-0.75bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 平收，TL主力合约下跌0.33%。资金面持续收敛，DR007加权利率回升至1.58%附近震荡。国 | | | 分别上行0.55、1.30bp左右至1.83%、2.26%。周二国债期货涨跌不一，TS、TF、T主力合约 | | | 内基本面端，我国2025年第四季度GDP同比增长4.5%，全年GDP增速达5.0%，圆满实现预期 | | | 增长目标。12月工增高于市场预期，固投规模持续收敛，社零低于前值。12月金融数据超预 | | | 期，社融增速持续回落，政府债造成较大拖累；信贷小幅少增，企业中长期融资需求边际改 | | | 善，但居民去杠杆趋势延续，信贷表现依然偏弱。12月全国规上工企业利润同比5.3%，全年 | | 观点总结 | 利润实现增长，扭转连续三年下行趋势。消息面上，今年首批936亿元超长期特别国债支持设 | | | 备更新资金已下达，将带动总投资超过4600亿元。海外方面，美国2025第三季度GDP终值年 | | | 化环比4.4%，为近两年来最快 ...