Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped from a high, with a weekly decline of 1.36%. The supply of new late - maturing Fuji apples in the western region has increased, and the price shows a significant polarization. High - quality apples are in strong demand, while the general ones are less sought after. In the Shandong region, affected by the weather, apples are still in the coloring stage, and merchants have mostly gone to the western region for procurement. In the sales market, the trading atmosphere is average, and the restocking efforts of second - and third - level wholesalers are weak. It is expected that the proportion of high - quality apples will decline, and the principle of "good quality, good price" will gradually emerge, which is beneficial to the apple market. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips in the short term for the Apple 2601 contract. Future trading should pay attention to the price of late - maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 1.36% [4][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Western new - season late - maturing Fuji apples have increased in supply, with a significant price polarization. High - quality apples are in high demand, while general ones are less so. Shandong apples are still in the coloring stage due to weather, and merchants have shifted to the west. The sales market has an average trading atmosphere, and restocking by second - and third - level wholesalers is weak. The quality and commodity rate of new apples are expected to be lower than last year, and the proportion of high - quality apples is expected to decline. The principle of "good quality, good price" will gradually emerge, which is positive for the apple market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy long positions on dips in the short term for the Apple 2601 contract [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the price of late - maturing Fuji and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract dropped from a high this week, with a weekly decline of 1.36%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 1,483 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [8][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' goods in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of bagged Fuji apples 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: For the 2025/26 production season, new apples have not been put into storage, and data release has been suspended [26]. - **Demand Side**: - As of October 16, the average daily number of early - morning arrivals at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (represented by 0) pending the new apples' harvest [30]. - As of October 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.62 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.34 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 yuan per kilogram [35]. - As of October 10, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.06 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan per kilogram [39]. - In August 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled about 68,400 tons, with an export value of 69,739,352 US dollars and an average export price of 1,019 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 27.61% month - on - month compared with July and decreased by 17.61% year - on - year compared with August 2024. From January to August 2025, China's fresh apple exports totaled 530,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.60% [42]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not given [43]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - **Stock Market**: The chart shows the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [45].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 硅铁市场周报 成本高位利润亏损，库存中性供应回落 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 图2、硅铁跨期价差走势图 p 截至10月17日，硅铁期货合约持仓量为41.2万手，环比增加3.3万手。 p 截至10月17日，硅铁5-1合约月差为78，环比下降34个点。 4 1. 宏观方面，特朗普重启对华贸易战，对中国输美产品加征100%关税，周初商品普遍回落；《求是》杂志评论员文章称，根据 形势变化及时实施精准有力的宏观政策，增强政策可预期性，是引导市场形成积极预期的关键；国家发改委印发《节能降碳中 央预算内投资专项管理办法》，支持钢铁等重点行业节能降碳改造；中钢协召开钢铁工业提质升级座谈会。会议指出，"十五五" 期间国内钢铁需求总体呈波动下降趋势，企业要注意产量调控是向碳排放调控的过渡期和关键期。 2. 海外方面，受特朗普威胁中国加收1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to weakening supply and demand and accumulating inventory. The Fed's report shows little change in overall economic activity, with a slight decline in retail spending and stable employment. In China, September's CPI and PPI data indicate a complex economic situation. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and smelting capacity may be limited. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract declined in a volatile manner on the weekly line, with a weekly increase or decrease of -1.77% and an amplitude of 4.84%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 84,390 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: The Fed's report shows that overall economic activity has changed little, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending, especially retail spending, and stable employment levels [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still have an impact. Due to many smelting overhauls and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand with inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of 385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton compared to last week. The main contract was quoted at 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the position volume was 215,573 lots, a decrease of 542 lots compared to last week [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 17, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 84,775 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,215 yuan/ton [17]. - **Cross - period Contract**: As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract's cross - month cross - period quote was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [17]. - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 7,073 lots, an increase of 2,601 lots compared to last week [23]. - **Options Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7621, an increase of 0.0217 compared to last week [28]. 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - **Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 75,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to last week. The southern blister copper processing fee was quoted at 1,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week [31]. - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 7.78% and a year - on - year increase rate of 7.27%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,941.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,071.9 yuan/ton compared to last week [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared to June, with an increase rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared to June. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 509,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous week [41]. Supply - side of Refined Copper - **Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared to June, with an increase rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared to June [43][44]. - **Imports**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared to July, with a decrease rate of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 213.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,423.37 yuan/ton compared to last week [52][53]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 1,950 tons compared to last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 5,127 tons compared to last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,885 tons compared to last week. The total social inventory was 183,100 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared to last week [56]. Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to July, with a decrease rate of 10.42% and a year - on - year increase rate of 2.38% [62]. - **Applications**: As of August 2025, the cumulative investment completion amount of power and grid investment increased by 0.5% and 14% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment completion amount of real estate development was 603.0919 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342.912327 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [66][73]. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of July 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of excess supply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. As of August 2025, according to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [78][79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both declined, with soda ash futures down 2.5% and glass futures down 9.28%. Soda ash is expected to have a loose supply and reduced demand, making it difficult for prices to rise, but may rebound slightly if there are interest - rate cut expectations next week. Glass is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with its market fluctuating around demand, and the overall de - stocking trend remaining unchanged [6]. - For the SA2601 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the 1200 - 1260 range, with stop - loss in the 1180 - 1300 range. For the FG2601 contract, operation in the 1080 - 1130 range is recommended, with stop - loss in the 1060 - 1150 range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures declined, with the market oscillating in the first half of the week due to production cut news and falling further in the second half due to poor glass demand. Glass futures dropped due to negative news in the real - estate industry [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply - side domestic production and operating rates decreased, but are at a relatively high level and show an upward trend. Demand from the glass industry remained stable at a low level, and there is a possibility of reduced demand from the photovoltaic glass industry. Soda ash enterprise inventories increased. For glass, supply - side production remained at a low level, and demand was affected by the real - estate market. Although the inventory has re - accumulated, the de - stocking trend remains [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA2601 contract short - term trading in the 1200 - 1260 range, stop - loss in the 1180 - 1300 range; FG2601 contract operation in the 1080 - 1130 range, stop - loss in the 1060 - 1150 range [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices declined this week [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soda ash spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. Glass spot prices increased, and the basis weakened, expected to flatten in the future. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [12][16][22]. - **Specific Data**: As of October 16, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was - 70 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was - 35 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price spread was 88 yuan/ton [14][20][24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production volume decreased, and production is expected to increase slightly next week. As of October 16, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%; the weekly production volume was 74.05 tons, a decrease of 3.93% [26][31]. - **Enterprise Profits**: Soda ash enterprise profits declined, and costs increased. Glass enterprise profits also decreased. Soda ash production capacity is expected to decline next week, and glass production capacity will remain at a low level [33]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines decreased by 1, and overall production remained unchanged. There are signs of production line resumption, and production is expected to remain at a low level next week. As of October 16, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 226 in production, and 70 cold - repaired; the national float glass production was 112.89 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0% [38][42]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: This week, the domestic photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume remained flat and are expected to remain unchanged next week. As of October 16, 2025, the capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0%; the daily melting volume was 88780 tons/day, with a week - on - week increase of 0 tons/day [44][46]. - **Enterprise Inventories**: Soda ash enterprise inventories increased slightly, and glass enterprise inventories decreased. De - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of October 16, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventories were 170.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%; the total glass inventory was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [48][52]. - **Downstream Demand**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, but demand remained low. As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [54][56].

瑞达期货研究院 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.10.17」 玉米类市场周报 新季玉米上量增多 期价维持偏弱调整 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货低位调整。主力2601合约收盘价为2117元/吨，较节前-8元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：受美国政府停摆影响，美国农业部未发布作物进展报告。不过，分析师们平均预期， 截至上周日，美国玉米收割完成约29%。随着美玉米收割推进，供应压力将逐步增加，也令美玉 米价格继续承压。国内方面，东北产区新粮上市进入高峰期，基层种植户售粮积极性较高，当前 气温略偏高，部分地区出现集中售粮现象，贸易商对后市行情多保持观望，囤货积极性稍显一般， 下游市场需求表现疲软，深加工企业持续下调收购价格。华北黄淮产区受持续阴雨天气的影响， 新玉米保存难度大，存在霉变及毒素超标的风险，潮粮价格持续下跌，贸易商收购意 ...

作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 股指期货周报 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体下跌，除上证指数外，均跌超4%。四期指亦集体下行，中 小盘股弱于大盘蓝筹股。本周，市场受到贸易局势影响下跌，10月10日特朗普表示将对华加 征100%关税，随后又于10月12日释放谈判信号，周一A股低开后反弹，但由于特朗普态度反 复，令权益资产再度承压，前期估值偏高的中小盘股面临较大回调压力。本周，市场成交活 跃度较上周回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 2、消息面概览 2020.06.30 厦门 10月13日，海关总署公布数据显示，中国9月出口（以人民币计价）同比增长8.4%，前值增4.8%；进口增长7.5%， 前值增1.7%；贸易顺差6454.7亿元，前值7326.8亿元。中国9月出口（以美元计价）同比增 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 焦煤市场周报 会议预期库存回落，盘面延续宽幅震荡 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量196.1万吨，环比增12.2万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产26.1万吨，环比增0.5万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1914.16万吨，环比增加21.16万吨，同比下降1.51%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1422，折盘面1202 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利-13元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率55.41%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年减少19.05个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量240.95万吨，环比上周减少0.59万吨，同比去年增加6.59万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 1. 宏观方面，特朗普重 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 碳酸锂市场周报 供需双增库存去化，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡走强，涨跌幅为+4.07%，振幅6.93%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价75700元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，中汽协：以旧换新等政策对车市起到了规模巨大的拉动效应。预计到今年政策期满时，补贴申 请的汽车以旧换新总量将超过1200万辆，直接带动的新车销售额接近1.7万亿元。基本面原料端，海外矿商挺价延续， 冶炼厂生产意愿较好，故矿价保持坚挺。供给端，国内锂辉石、盐湖方面均有新产线投产，加之锂盐厂利润情况较好， 开工率保持高位，国内碳酸锂供给保持增长趋势。需求端，国内新能源汽车、储能行业增长显示，消费对需求的拉动 效应明显，下游排产积极，推动碳酸锂行业库存去化。整体来看，碳酸锂基本面或处于供需双增局面，需求增速快于 供给，产业库存明显去化。 策略建议：轻仓逢低短多交易，注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current high laying - hen inventory and lack of over - culling of old hens result in a high - production situation, which, combined with the post - holiday seasonal decline in consumption, is expected to keep the egg supply - demand in a loose state and suppress near - month contracts. The post - holiday drop in spot prices also affects the futures market. However, continuous losses reduce market restocking enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. Overall, short - term near - month contracts are restricted by high - production pressure and falling spot prices, while far - month contracts may perform better due to the logic of production capacity reduction [6]. - For near - month contracts, a bearish trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the number of old hen culls [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, egg futures were in a low - level oscillation. The closing price of the 2512 contract was 2959 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High laying - hen inventory and post - holiday consumption decline will maintain the loose supply - demand situation and suppress near - month contracts. Continuous losses reduce restocking enthusiasm, which is good for long - term prices. Near - month contracts are restricted in the short term, while far - month contracts may be stronger [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a bearish trading strategy for near - month contracts and monitor old hen culling volume [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 12 - contract oscillated at a low level, with an open interest of 218,645 lots, an increase of 26,310 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was - 23,920, a slight decrease in net short positions compared to last week's - 33,849 [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 30 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3008 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 70 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 12 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 49 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 220 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of October 16, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory and Restocking**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [38]. - **Culling Index and Age**: As of August 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national average age of culled hens was 510 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of October 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2271.57 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of October 10, 2025, the egg - hen breeding profit was - 0.4 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Egg - hen Chick and Culled - hen Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, the average price of egg - hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 8.92 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In August 2025, China's egg export volume was 13,121.03 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.82% (1281.43 tons more than the same period last year) and a month - on - month increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: A figure shows the change in its price - to - earnings ratio, but no specific data is provided [65].