瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 铝类市场周报 需求转淡VS宏观向好，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料氧化铝价低位运行，铝厂冶炼利润较好，整体开工情况积极。供给端，国内电解铝开工 率稳中有增，但因在产产能已临近行业上限，电解铝供给增量较为零星、量级稳定。需求端，随着淡季影响的逐步显 现加之临近假期，下游开工情况有所走弱，加之铝价保持高位震荡，对下游的采买亦有一定抑制，故产业库存小幅积 累。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳中小增，需求淡季的阶段，受宏观预期利好铝价维持高位震荡。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 本周沪铝期价走强 沪铝与伦铝期价 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+2.32%，报22925元/吨。氧化铝震荡走势，周涨跌-0.54%，报2778元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，土矿价格偏稳运行，港 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg market oscillated and closed lower. The 2603 contract closed at 2951 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 37 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - The market is caught between weak current conditions and strong future expectations. In the short - term, the near - month contracts may experience wide - range oscillations at low levels. The far - month contracts are expected to perform better than the near - month ones due to the anticipated decline in production capacity, and investors can consider lightly going long on far - month contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg market oscillated and closed lower this week. The 2603 contract closed at 2951 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 37 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Losses in the breeding sector have led to reduced replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the culling of old hens. The egg - laying hen inventory has slightly declined, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. Low spot prices and continued losses for breeders have dampened replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial for long - term prices. However, New Year's Day stocking has started, increasing demand and boosting spot prices. The high inventory of laying hens is still constraining the performance of near - term market prices [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract oscillated and closed lower, with an open interest of 211,240 lots, an increase of 20,607 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 45,394, showing little change in net short positions compared to last week [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg futures warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3076 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 104 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was + 125 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The egg 3 - 5 spread was reported at - 557 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [26]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of December 30, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.73 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 5.63 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - side Indicators**: As of November 30, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%, and the national new chick index was 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38]. - **Laying Hen Culling**: As of November 30, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%, and the average age of culled hens was 500 days [43]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2351.76 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3120 yuan per ton [47]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of December 26, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.8 yuan per kilogram [53]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices**: As of December 26, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 7.74 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Exports**: In November 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,045.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.13% (an increase of 1091.86 tons compared to the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 349.02 tons compared to the previous month [63]. 3.4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Information about the company's price - earnings ratio change is provided, but no detailed analysis is given [65].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，仅上证指数微幅上涨。四期指集体下跌，中小盘股 强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，为2025年最后一个交易周，市场交投相对平淡。12月27日-28日召 开的全国财政工作会议，在宏观层面对市场起到托底；12月31日公布的国内三大PMI指数均 回到扩张区间，经济基本面有回暖迹象，但由于元旦假期将至，部分投资者选择空仓过节， 市场对经济数据的反应并不明显。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周明显回升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周三涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.83 | -0.61 | 4599. ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2605合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约3.71%。 行情展望：巴西棉播种进度顺利，进度明显快于五年均值。巴西国家商品供应公司 公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月27日当周，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植率为 25.1%，此前一周为16.9%，五年均值为15.6%。国内市场：当前全国棉花公检量已 超600万吨，市场供应相对充足。另外轧花厂皮棉加工接近尾声，下游纺企中高支纱 线订单表现稳定，多选择刚需补货，部分地区仓库库存小幅下降，整体出库良好， 预计下周全国商业库存仍呈增加之势。短期棉价可能进入调整状态。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 3 添加客服 业务咨询 「 期现市场情况」 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 图2、CFTC美棉非商业净持仓情况 来源：wind 瑞达期货研 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of live pigs is tightening, which supports the price to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the supportive effects of secondary fattening and demand are weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: The live pig price rose and then adjusted. The main contract 2603 increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: At the beginning of the month, there may be supply reduction operations, and the supply of fat pigs is tight, reducing short - term supply pressure. However, the entry of secondary fattening is becoming more cautious. The current demand is in the peak season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ends, the demand drops from the small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, so the increase in slaughter volume is limited [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures decreased by 119 hands to 51,598 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 1,013, an increase of 150 from the previous week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 370, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,010 [22]. - **Spot Market** - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 12.28 yuan/kg, up 0.65 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.72 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of December 25, the national pork market price was 22.48 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.46 yuan/kg, remaining flat from the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 24, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.24, up 0.01 from the previous week [44]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from last week [58]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of December 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 162.8 yuan/head, narrowing by 26.7 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, narrowing by 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - **Domestic Import** - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the total pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [68]. - **Substitutes** - **Prices**: As of the week of December 26, the price of white - striped chickens remained flat at 14.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of December 25, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg from last week [73]. - **Feed** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of December 31, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,172.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.94 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of December 31, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 892.17, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, remaining flat from last week [81]. - **Feed Output**: In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. - **Downstream** - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 52nd week, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the cold - storage capacity utilization rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a 24.04% increase compared with the previous period. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 沪铜市场周报 假期临近库存积累，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回落，周线涨跌幅为-0.49%，振幅6.74%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价98240元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示， FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但官员们分歧严重。一些与会 者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在本次会议下调利率区间后，可能需要在一段时间内保持目标利率区间不变。国内方面， 2026年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于2026年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》， 同时下达首批625亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。基本面原料端，铜精矿TC加工指数现货小幅下行，矿紧预期持续，铜价 成本支撑逻辑坚固。供给端，在原料供给持续偏紧以及假期将至的影响下，铜冶炼产能或将逐步收敛，国内精铜供给量增 速逐渐放缓。需求端，铜价冲高回落后修复力度较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 12,000 in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level, with the price center slightly rising. The market transactions are concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Terminal purchases are weak, and production enterprise inventory is expected to remain high while trade enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary Market Review - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level. Except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants, other butadiene rubber plants are operating at a high load. The Shandong market spot price ranges from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's ex - factory price for BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's is 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - The domestic butadiene plants have few shutdowns, and the supply remains high. The price center has slightly increased, but the terminal purchases are still weak. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trade enterprises is expected to decline slightly. The tire enterprises have flexible production arrangements, with some controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate has increased slightly, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate has decreased [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.99% [12] - As of December 31, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 40 [18] - As of December 31, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] Spot Market - As of December 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of December 30, the butadiene rubber basis is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - As of December 30, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 538.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.82 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28] - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.61%, an increase of 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory is 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from last week [31] Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production is 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [34] - As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber is 76.76%, an increase of 0.5% from last week [34] - As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory is 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [41] Downstream - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [44] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume is 7,732,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [48] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

Report Information - Report Title: Caustic Soda Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290, and the spot price declined slightly. The SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.3% to 86.0%. The alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: The main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290 this week, and the spot price declined slightly. As of December 31, 2025, the SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2197 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -45 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some plants in East and North China restarted last week, driving the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase by 1.3% to 86.0%. On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. In terms of inventory, affected by the end-of-month inventory clearance in North China and the rigid demand from downstream, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons last week. In terms of profit, due to the weakening of liquid chlorine prices, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - **Outlook**: In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, SH2603 fluctuated and rose, and the position of the 03 contract decreased [9]. - **Spot Market**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 703, with a converted price of 2197. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Henan was 704 yuan, with a converted price of 2200. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia was 656 yuan, with a converted price of 2050. The ex-factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton. The spot was at a discount to the main futures, and the number of registered warrants remained stable this week [14][23][28][33]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: The prices of raw salt in Northwest and Shandong were basically stable. The price of 5500K thermal coal in Qinhuangdao dropped to 670 yuan/ton [39][44]. - **Supply**: In November, the caustic soda output was 356.95 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%. Last week, the operating rate rose to 86% [47]. - **Demand**: In November, the alumina output was 800.83 tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.14%. Last week, the viscose staple fiber开工率 was 87.03%. The alumina price was weak, and the viscose staple fiber price remained stable [53][57][60]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the caustic soda import was 0.09 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda import from January to November was 0.82 tons. In November, the caustic soda export was 27.44 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda export from January to November was 376.67 tons [66][72]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the enterprise sample inventory was 44.22 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.83% [77]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali decreased month-on-month [80]. 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20-day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 25.81%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 30.85% [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices rose first and then fell this week, with short - term large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch futures prices also rose first and then fell, and are expected to maintain short - term fluctuations [8][10] Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,226 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [8] - **Market Outlook**: U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure. However, good export conditions and a downward adjustment of the ending inventory forecast support its price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, farmers are reluctant to sell, and most grain sources are in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have certain inventories, while deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventories and weak willingness to purchase at higher prices. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the overall grain sales progress is about 40%, and processing enterprises are not willing to replenish stocks at high prices [8] Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated up and down, closing at 2,515 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week [10] - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply - side pressure of corn starch remains. As of December 24, the national corn starch inventory increased. However, holiday stocking and the price increase of cassava starch may boost demand [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures rose first and then fell, with a total position of 1,009,261 lots, an increase of 5,461 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also rose first and then fell, with a total position of 195,489 lots, an increase of 3,391 lots from last week [16] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 168,889 this week, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 31,610, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [23] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 39,395 lots, and those of corn starch were 12,355 lots [29] Spot Price and Basis - As of December 30, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract and the spot average price was + 125 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton and 2,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, and the basis between the 3 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 185 yuan/ton [34][39] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 29 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 50 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contracts of starch and corn was 289 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, the same as last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of December 30, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2,516.17 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2,351.76 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 164.41 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton compared to last week [59] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - As of December 19, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 278,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.803 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 827,000 tons, an increase of 143,000 tons week - on - week [49] - As of December 25, the overall domestic corn sales progress was 45%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year. The sales progress in the Northeast was 44%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points from the same period last year [61] - In November 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons (86.67%) compared to the same period last year and 200,000 tons compared to last month [65] - As of December 25, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.88 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68% [69] Demand - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) year - on - year and 12.33 million heads (2.9%) quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads (1.12%) month - on - month [73] - As of December 26, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 130.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 162.8 yuan/head [77] - As of December 30, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 50 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 399 yuan/ton in Henan, - 767 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 265 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch Supply - As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.378 million tons, an increase of 4.26% [86] - From December 25 - 31, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 631,100 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 327,500 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 59.86%, a decrease of 0.6% from last week. As of December 31, the national corn starch inventory was 1.123 million tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64% [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of December 31, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 11.32%, a recovery of 1.04% from last week's 10.28%. The implied volatility this week recovered and was at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.31」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2190-2280区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场继续偏强运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2200元/吨，广东价 格波动在2090-2130元/吨。内地甲醇价格延续疲软，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1870- 1900元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2160-2200元/吨。内地甲醇市场延续疲弱走势，企业出 货不畅致库存高企，降价去库成为主流操作。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 市场供应量增加，下游原料库存高位，采买积极性下降，内地项目延续稳定运行，本周内地企业 库存增加，短期供应相对充裕背景下，冬季部分需求预期偏弱不利于上游生产端出货节奏，库存 或整体维持增量预期。港口方面，本周甲醇港口库存继续累库，江苏 ...