沪锌产业日报 2025-09-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22035 | -245 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -10 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2943 | -41.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 229818 | 13547 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -12728 | -2 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 54241 | 1521 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 94649 | 7617 LME库存(日,吨) | 48975 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22010 | -150 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21790 | -230 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 95 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 24.36 | -16.97 | | | 昆明 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint On Thursday, the HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, Japan's Finance Minister Kato Shigekatsu rejected the US's call to increase pressure on Russia and the proposal to impose higher tariffs on China and India. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to rise with a capacity utilization rate of 83.4%; demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased. Overall, the recent rebound in steel prices affected terminal demand, hot - rolled coil production remained high, and the expectation of loose supply increased. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. Operationally, short on rebounds with a stop - loss reference of 3400, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; HC main contract open interest was 1,412,324 lots, up 20,862 lots; HC contract top 20 net positions were - 117,198 lots, up 9,211 lots; HC10 - 1 contract spread was 43 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 47,049 tons, down 13,892 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - In the spot market, prices in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin for 4.75 hot - rolled coils remained unchanged. HC main contract basis was 96 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.4947 million tons, up 241,500 tons; sample coking plant coke inventory was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.3361 million tons, up 100,700 tons; Hebei billet inventory was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, up 4.43 percentage points; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, up 13,500 tons; sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 83.40%, up 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 813,000 tons, up 4,200 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 2.9669 million tons, up 42,500 tons; domestic crude steel production was 7.737 million tons, down 229,000 tons; steel net exports were 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production was 2.8154 million vehicles, up 224,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.8566 million vehicles, up 263,200 vehicles; air - conditioner production was 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units; household refrigerator production was 9.4532 million units, up 722,500 units; household washing machine production was 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - On September 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual hot - rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, up 13,500 tons; factory inventory was 813,000 tons, up 4,200 tons; social inventory was 2.9669 million tons, up 42,500 tons; total inventory was 3.7799 million tons, up 46,700 tons; apparent demand was 3.2182 million tons, down 43,400 tons week - on - week [2]. - In August 2025, China exported 5.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, cumulative exports were 48.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2].

红枣产业日报 2025-09-18 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 10620 | -195 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 146461 | 2952 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -1558 | 2514 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8661 | -210 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 58 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term explicit arrival volume of foreign vessels at ports remains at a relatively high level. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to increase next week, and the specific increase amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. - After the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant and the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing plant, the olefin operating rate increased this week. With the expected restart of the Ningxia Baofeng Phase III and Shenhua Xinjiang olefin plants next week, the industry operating rate may continue to rise. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2346 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 39 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. - The main contract's open interest of methanol is 942,904 lots, an increase of 106,296 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 168,632 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 10,207, a decrease of 574 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 106 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 294 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.39 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 48.39 tons, an increase of 2.31 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 2.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.04 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.58%, a decrease of 0.26% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, an increase of 5.4%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.86%, an increase of 0.03%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 83.11%, a decrease of 1.13%; the operating rate of MTBE is 61.69%, a decrease of 0.53%. - The operating rate of olefins is 81.57%, a decrease of 3.15%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.3%, an increase of 0.7%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.38%, a decrease of 0.8%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.25%, an increase of 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.24%, an increase of 0.04% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises is 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. - As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. East China shows de - stocking, and South China shows inventory accumulation. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 84.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.23% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply, increasing nickel resource supply costs. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, production is stable with some increases and new capacity plans, driving a slight increase in refined nickel output. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production due to improved profits, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, with stable spot premiums and increasing domestic and LME inventories. Technically, with reduced positions, prices are adjusted, and trading is cautious, showing a wide - range oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 55,044 lots, down 3,785 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,890 lots, down 1,453 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, up 2,034 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,866 tons, down 275 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) and bonded - warehouse (warrant) prices are both 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,760 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.18 dollars/ton, down 0.55 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.4 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts this year. The September statement showed changes in the economic outlook compared to the July meeting: it recognized the slowdown in employment growth, mentioned a slight increase in the unemployment rate while still keeping it low, removed the statement that "labor - market conditions remain robust", and judged that the downward risk of employment has increased. It also thought that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut was not strong, and the downward employment trend has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management - type rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point cut did not receive wide support [2]

统均线呈现空头排列，整体偏空震荡运行。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12830 | -170 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 98989 | 4913 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 428 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -27198 | -1011 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the precious metals market was under significant pressure and retraced. After the interest rate cut decision was announced, the precious metals market maintained a downward trend due to the outflow of long - position funds after the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled. The subsequent trend will depend on the performance of the August PCE personal consumption expenditure data. In the short term, the market lacks further positive catalysts after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, and the precious metals market may enter a volatile range. The strategy is to try short positions lightly when the price is high and focus on range - band trading [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 824.1 yuan/gram, down 10.98; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9835 yuan/kilogram, down 71. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 87731 lots, down 8276; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 395854 lots, up 223963. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 168591 lots, up 3052; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122144 lots, up 3040. The gold warehouse receipt quantity was 56430 kilograms, up 2304; the silver warehouse receipt quantity was 1203523 kilograms, down 17905 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 829.6 yuan/gram, down 5; the silver spot price was 9834 yuan/kilogram, down 92. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 2.78 yuan/gram, up 3.26; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 1 yuan/kilogram, down 21 [2]. 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 975.66 tons, down 4.29; the silver ETF holdings were 15189.61 tons, down 28.23. The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. 4. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.59%, up 2.29; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.67%, down 0.34. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 22.75%, up 2.32 [2]. 5. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut this year and after a 9 - month pause. The FOMC statement pointed out that the downside risks in employment have increased, economic growth has slowed down in the first half of the year, and inflation has risen. After the FOMC statement, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is over 90%. The US new housing starts in August decreased from 1.429 million units in July to 1.307 million units, far lower than the expected 1.365 million units. Building permits decreased from 1.362 million units in July to 1.312 million units, the lowest since May 2020. Japan's export value in August decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 87.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in December is 1.1%, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 19.0%, and the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points is 79.9% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures price declined on Wednesday due to the unclear US biofuel proposal policy, which led to a significant drop in the US soybean oil futures price and dragged down the domestic oil market. In the short term, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the market shows a volatile trend. The heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia, has affected at least 7 counties, and as one of the main palm oil producing areas, the market is worried about its impact on palm picking and transportation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 2.5% compared with the same period in August [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract was 9304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract was 423179 hands, a decrease of 12824 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 1570 hands, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 9011 hands, a decrease of 16510 hands; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil was 4414 Malaysian ringgit/ton, an increase of 31 ringgit; the settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil was 64.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.47 dollars [2] Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 9380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; in Tianjin was 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars; the CNF price was 1148 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the palm oil main contract was - 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly production of Malaysian palm oil was 1685962 tons, an increase of 298531 tons; the export volume was 1102266 tons, an increase of 96719 tons; the ending inventory was 1865537 tons, an increase of 302720 tons. The monthly production of Indonesian palm oil was 528.9 million tons, an increase of 72.9 million tons; the export volume was 360.6 million tons, an increase of 94.6 million tons; the inventory was 253 million tons, a decrease of 39 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs caliber) was 16 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil was 120.3 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons; the weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil was 60.77 million tons, a decrease of 2.13 million tons. The import cost of Malaysian palm oil was 9746.97 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.61 yuan. The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, was 8480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian, was 10240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil was 11.36 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28.22 dollars; the price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 790 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The annual food consumption of palm oil in Malaysia was 870 thousand tons, an increase of 5 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 3100 thousand tons, unchanged. In Indonesia, the food consumption was 7400 thousand tons, an increase of 200 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 13750 thousand tons, an increase of 500 thousand tons. In China, the food consumption was 3600 thousand tons, a decrease of 100 thousand tons; the industrial consumption was 2300 thousand tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil was 16.64%, a decrease of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.63%, a decrease of 0.29%. The 20 - day historical volatility was 15.24%, an increase of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 15.35%, an increase of 0.14% [2] Industry News - The Sabah state government in Malaysia canceled the state - level Malaysia Day celebration due to heavy rain and floods in at least 7 counties. The SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 15, 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.05% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 6.94%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% [2]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic soybean imports suppress the market. Recently, rapeseed meal has been weakly adjusting, and short - term participation is recommended, focusing on the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - For rapeseed oil, terminal consumption is weakly boosted by the start of school, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts purchases. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil has been weakly adjusting, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 9984 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), rapeseed meal is 2470 yuan/ton, ICE rapeseed is 626.7 Canadian dollars/ton (down 13.8 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed is 5299 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan). - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) is 489 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) is 113 yuan/ton. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 326231 lots (down 10512 lots), and rapeseed meal is 385353 lots (down 13964 lots). - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil is 17846 lots (down 5040 lots), and rapeseed meal is - 34577 lots (up 7103 lots). - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil is 8202 sheets, and rapeseed meal is 9504 sheets (down 600 sheets) [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2570 yuan/ton, rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, and the average price of rapeseed oil is 10125 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The import cost of rapeseed is 7838.36 yuan/ton (down 158.53 yuan). - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis is 76 yuan/ton (down 35 yuan), and rapeseed meal main contract basis is 100 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). - Substitute prices: The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8530 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2950 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The oil - meal ratio is 3.84 (down 0.02) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons), and domestic rapeseed annual forecast production is 12378 thousand tons. - Rapeseed imports are 17.6 tons (down 0.85 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 754 yuan/ton (down 112 yuan). - The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79% (down 0.27%). - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 15 tons (up 4 tons), and rapeseed meal imports are 27.03 tons (up 7.56 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons (down 1.05 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons (down 0.05 tons). - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 52.12 tons (down 1.08 tons), and rapeseed meal inventory is 30 tons (down 1.51 tons). - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 4.1 tons (down 0.45 tons), and South China rapeseed meal inventory is 20 tons (down 1.3 tons). - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 4.33 tons (up 1.3 tons), and rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.57 tons (up 0.83 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2827.3 tons (down 110.4 tons), and the monthly catering revenue is 4495.7 billion yuan (down 8.4 billion yuan). - Edible vegetable oil production is 476.9 tons (up 41.8 tons) [2]. Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 17.92% (up 0.35%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.9% (up 0.34%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 17.18% (up 1.23%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.34% (up 0.14%). - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.56% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.55% (down 0.7%), the 20 - day historical volatility is 10.36% (up 2.45%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.88% (up 0.14%) [2]. Industry News - The US EPA proposes to re - allocate the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the SRE program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% allocation. - On Wednesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 1.98% due to negative production data from Statistics Canada and a weak external market. - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels per acre, slightly lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' expectations. The production estimate is raised to 4.301 billion bushels, and the ending inventory estimate is raised by 10 million bushels to 300 million bushels. - Statistics Canada reports that the Canadian rapeseed crop production estimate is 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest is underway [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean market, it is currently in the transition period between old and new soybeans, with the spot market operating steadily. Future focus should be on the listing rhythm of new soybeans and changes in downstream actual demand [2]. - For soybeans in the international market, according to the September USDA monthly report, although the yield per unit decreased, the planting area increased, leading to a slight increase in production to 4.301 billion bushels. The end - of - season inventory increased to 300 million bushels due to changes in demand. Market expectations for an effective procurement agreement from the Sino - US talks are low, and if the talks fail, US soybean exports will face further decline and demand pressure [2][3]. - For the domestic soybean meal market, downstream demand is weak, feed enterprise inventory is low, and oil mill inventory is accumulating. Recent policies also limit the feed demand for soybean meal, suppressing its price [3]. - For the domestic soybean oil market, due to sufficient soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates, supply is abundant. Although there is some increase in demand from schools and canteens, overall downstream inventory and supply enthusiasm are general, and inventory accumulation restricts prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main soybean No.1 contract was 3904 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the main soybean No.2 contract was 3660 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main soybean meal contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main soybean oil contract was 8284 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan. The settlement price of the active CBOT soybean contract was 1043.75 cents/bushel, down 6 cents; the CBOT soybean meal contract was 285.7 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars; the CBOT soybean oil contract was 51.78 cents/pound, down 1.42 cents [2]. - Contract positions: The main contract positions of soybean No.1 were 228,957 lots, up 2438 lots; soybean No.2 were 128,296 lots, up 2270 lots; soybean meal were 2,071,291 lots, up 1066 lots; soybean oil were 574,844 lots, down 13,601 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybean No.1 were - 40,493 lots, up 5031 lots; soybean No.2 were 1877 lots, up 2435 lots; soybean meal were - 743,277 lots, up 18,474 lots; soybean oil were - 117,616 lots, down 8302 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 were 7878 lots, down 44 lots; soybean No.2 were 100 lots, unchanged; soybean meal were 29,065 lots, unchanged; soybean oil were 24,544 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Domestic soybean spot price was 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean oil in Rizhao was 8420 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 8480 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Zhanjiang was 8590 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of domestic soybean main contract was 76 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean oil main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean meal main contract was - 43 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 4015 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - US soybean production was 117.98 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the end - of - season inventory was 8.44 million tons, up 0.41 million tons. Brazilian production was 175 million tons, unchanged; the end - of - season inventory was 39.96 million tons, up 5.67 million tons [2]. - The weekly inspection volume of soybeans was 29,681 thousand bushels, up 12,997 thousand bushels; the weekly export volume was 233,601 tons, down 173,006 tons. Brazilian monthly exports were 6.75 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Port inventory of imported soybeans was 6,622,320 tons, up 18,340 tons; weekly soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 0.0282 million tons; national port inventory of soybean oil was 1.203 million tons, up 0.002 million tons. The monthly import volume of soybeans was 11.6663 million tons, down 0.5976 million tons [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate was 66.35%, up 1.59 percentage points; the weekly oil mill crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, up 0.0565 million tons [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian was 10,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The daily soybean - palm oil price difference was - 790 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil price difference was 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the daily average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2636.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 313.16 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The weekly trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills was 823,400 tons, up 304,600 tons; the weekly trading volume of soybean oil in oil mills was 81,500 tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 29 yuan/ton, down 59.2 yuan; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 57.35 yuan/ton, down 52.05 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - China's annual total domestic soybean consumption was 126.8 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; China's annual food consumption of soybean oil was 18.8 million tons, up 0.9 million tons [2]. - The daily price of live pigs (external ternary) in Daxing, Beijing was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the weekly expected profit of pig farming was - 52.03 yuan/head, down 16.26 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 28.273 million tons, down 1.104 million tons; the monthly live pig inventory was 42.447 million heads, up 0.716 million heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4.042 million heads, down 10,000 heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal was 11.37%, down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal was 11.36%, down 0.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal was 13.17%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 11.79%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to industry analysts' surveys, as of the week ending September 11, the net increase in US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 0.4 - 1.5 million tons; the net increase in US soybean meal exports is expected to be 0.1 - 0.4 million tons; the net change in US soybean oil exports is expected to be a decrease of 5000 tons to an increase of 41,000 tons [2]. - In the production areas of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong, the remaining inventory of local soybeans has been basically cleared. Most traders are in the equipment maintenance stage after inventory clearance, and some have turned to purchasing new soybeans from Hubei, which supports local soybean prices. The sales areas are also cautious, closely monitoring the listing process of new soybeans [2].