Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term long - position entry as the main strategy [2] Core Viewpoint - In the new - season apple market, the supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing. The color and redness of some Fuji apples in the western region are affected by rainfall and short sunshine, but high - quality apples maintain firm prices. Shandong's Hongjiangjun apples have relatively poor quality. In the old - crop market, remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated in some townships. Some merchants continue to source stored Fuji due to high prices of early - ripe Fuji and poor color of Hongjiangjun, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales area is stable, and merchants' profits are limited due to high early - ripe Fuji prices. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation for the Double Festival [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 957; the main contract position is 2378 hands, a decrease of 240; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 81079 hands, a decrease of 240 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag, above 75) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag, above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag, above 70 semi - commercial) is 4 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag, above 80 first - class) is 3.7 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 20.91 million tons, a decrease of 6.44; Shandong's apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; Shaanxi's apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 6328.4 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1997.6 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.44; the wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02; the wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12 vehicles, an increase of 0.4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, an increase of 1; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 25.56 vehicles, an increase of 1.96 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.28%, an increase of 0.65; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.29%, an increase of 0.66 [2] Industry News - Western early - ripe Fuji is gradually ending, with the remaining supply showing quality differentiation; picking - green Fuji is waiting to color. In Shandong, the trading of Hongjiangjun apples has poor quality, and the trading of stored Fuji has slightly slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the mainstream price of early - ripe Fuji above 70 is 3.8 - 4.1 yuan/jin, etc. [2] Viewpoint Summary - New - season apples: The supply of mid - ripe Fuji is increasing, with some showing average color due to weather; high - quality prices are firm. Shandong's Hongjiangjun has poor quality. Old - crop market: Remaining supplies in Shandong are concentrated, and some merchants continue to source stored Fuji. The sales area has stable digestion, and merchants' profits are limited. Attention should be paid to the Double Festival stocking [2] Prompt Attention - There is no news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2510 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,138 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 5.98% month-on-month to 354,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.76% month-on-month to 74.98%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates of styrene increased to varying degrees last week; the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 6.52% month-on-month to 277,900 tons. In terms of inventory, the styrene factory inventory increased by 2.52% month-on-month to 220,300 tons, the inventory at East China ports decreased by 9.92% month-on-month to 1.59 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports increased by 14.74% month-on-month to 218,000 tons. This week, the 320,000-ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was restarted, and the impact of the short-term shutdown of Zibo Junchen's 500,000-ton plant subsided, so there is an expectation of an increase in production and capacity utilization. There are still large-scale plant maintenance plans in the second half of this month, but the 800,000-ton plant of Guangdong Petrochemical is expected to restart in the second half of the month, and the supply side is expected to see limited reduction in the future. This week, the load of EPS, PS, and ABS plants is expected to be slightly adjusted with little change. Affected by the weak procurement in the household appliance industry, currently ABS is slightly in the red and the inventory has continuously risen to a historical high. Attention should be paid to the transmission of future negative factors to the upstream. The inventory pressure of styrene remains high. In terms of cost, recent international oil prices have strengthened supported by geopolitical conflicts. Macroscopically, the talks among China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key domestic industries is about to be introduced. Technically, for EB2510, pay attention to the support around 7,100 and the resistance around 7,220 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of styrene was 7,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the futures trading volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 144,412 lots, a decrease of 20,911 lots; the closing price of the November contract of styrene was 7,152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88,537 yuan; the long position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was not provided; the futures holding volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) was 157,069 lots, a decrease of 29,390 lots; the net long position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was -32,813 lots, an increase of 4,980 lots; the short position volume of the top 20 holders of styrene was 389,295 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots; the total warehouse receipt quantity of styrene was 1,783 lots, an increase of 343 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,324 - 7,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the FOB South Korea intermediate price of styrene was 879 - 7,085 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 - 80 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price of styrene was 889 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 7,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of styrene in the South China region decreased by 15 yuan (specific price not provided); the mainstream price of styrene in the North China region (specific price not provided); the mainstream price of styrene in the East China region was 7,195 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 751.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 723.17 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf's FOB was 257 cents/gallon, a decrease of 1 cent; the spot price of pure benzene in Rotterdam's FOB was 662 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total operating rate of styrene was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76%; the national inventory of styrene was 220,277 tons, an increase of 5,420 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total inventory of styrene at the main ports in East China was 159,000 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons; the trade inventory of styrene at the main ports in East China was 78,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 61.02%, an increase of 8.5%; the operating rate of ABS was 70%, an increase of 1%; the operating rate of PS was 61.9%, an increase of 0.9%; the operating rate of UPR was 34%, an increase of 1%; the operating rate of styrene-butadiene rubber was 69.57%, an increase of 1.92% [2] Industry News - From September 5th to 11th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 5.98% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 74.98%, a decrease of 4.76% month-on-month. From September 5th to 11th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 277,900 tons, an increase of 6.52% from the previous period. As of September 11th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 220,300 tons, an increase of 2.52% from the previous cycle [2]

游逢低接货氛围边际有所好转，部分电池厂也有提产计划，但整体需求尚未出现明显的爆发式增长，仍处 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 于缓慢恢复阶段。库存方面，国外铅库存下跌，国内库存上涨，仓单数量下跌，整体库存不变。从目前库 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17100 | 45 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2006.5 | 5 | | | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -15 | -10 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 89129 | -1165 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2276 | -402 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 59417 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 66561 | -273 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 227850 | 2225 | | | | 16950 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract first declined and then rose. Macroscopically, "Qiushi" pointed out the need to rectify the chaotic situation of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises. In the "involution" - affected areas, effective governance should be carried out in accordance with laws and regulations. The self - regulatory role of industry associations should be better utilized to guide enterprises to improve product quality and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, in the short term, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the positive expectation of anti - involution policies still support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 axis. Operationally, maintain a bullish trading strategy above 3100, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,168.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume was 1,963,371 lots, up 7,123 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 241,258 lots, down 15,214 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 269,359 tons, down 6,300 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) was 3,290.00, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) was 3,374, down 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) was 3,350.00, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) was 3,220.00, down 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 122.00 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/wet ton, down 10.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) was 1,540.00, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded, yuan/ton) was 2,290.00, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,060.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 13,849.47 million tons, up 24.15 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 43.76 million tons, up 3.10 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 633.61 million tons, up 10.07 million tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 128.95 million tons, down 7.58 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The rebar output of sample steel mills was 211.93 million tons, down 6.75 million tons. The rebar capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points. The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 166.63 million tons, down 4.71 million tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 487.23 million tons, up 18.57 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 901.00 million tons, down 38.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 643,109 million square meters, down 4,378 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801 million square meters, down 4,595 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 40,229.00 million square meters, up 307.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; produced 60.80 million tons of pig iron, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons. The Jiangsu Iron and Steel Association stated that it was urgent to rectify "involution - style" competition. Representatives of steel enterprises exchanged views on issues such as enterprise operation, green development, intelligent manufacturing, and product development. Facing the current situation of imbalance between supply and demand in the industry, they agreed that it was urgent to rectify "involution - style" competition, and enterprises should jointly maintain market order, expand overseas business, and strengthen international cooperation [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

红枣产业日报 2025-09-17 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 期货市场 | 10815 | 10 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 143509 | 2418 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | | -4072 | -754 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 8871 | -29 | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 17, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5990, up 0.47%. For the spot market, Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5750. The market should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. [2] - On September 17, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5766, up 0.24%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5460. The market should also be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,766 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest was 546,370 lots, down 6,931 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 391,124 lots, down 7,322 lots [2] - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest was - 84,236 lots, down 1,479 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest was - 35,472 lots, up 2,789 lots [2] - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 34 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 104 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - SM warehouse receipts were 61,342, up 1,350; SF warehouse receipts were 17,857, up 820 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Manganese - silicon index average was 5,658 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 306 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2] - SM main contract basis was - 240 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium grade in Shenmu) was 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, up 9.30 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 47.38%, up 0.93%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, down 1.50% [2] - Manganese - silicon supply was 214,130 tons, up 1,295 tons; Ferrosilicon supply was 113,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 166,800 tons, up 6,300 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 69,940 tons, up 3,380 tons [2] - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2] - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand was 122,314 tons, down 1,354 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand was 19,737.40 tons, down 338.70 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.85%, up 3.47%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43% [2] - Crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Inner Mongolia Energy Bureau ordered 15 coal mines to suspend production due to exceeding the approved capacity, with an over - capacity of over 10% in H1 2025 [2] - US Treasury Secretary said the Fed has been lagging, and the market is pricing in a 75 - basis - point rate cut from now to the end of the year [2] - US media reported that the US asked allies to impose high tariffs on China and India for importing Russian oil, and Japan refused [2] - Trump hinted at trade concessions to the UK, and US tech companies like Microsoft and OpenAI promised to invest over $40 billion in the UK, while the UK shelved the US steel zero - tariff plan [2] - Russian oil pipeline operator warned producers to cut output due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key export ports and refineries [2]

短期SH2601预计震荡走势，技术上关注2530附近支撑与2630附近压力。 免责声明 地区供应充足，下游氧化铝厂采购价下调，非铝企业高价抵触，32%碱市场价跌幅明显；华东地区货源仍 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 偏紧，价格维稳为主。宏观方面，中美西班牙会谈进展顺利，国内新一轮重点行业稳增长政策即将出台。 | | | | 烧碱产业日报 | | 2025-09-17 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2608 | | 29 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 106433 | 498 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -11071 | | 4619 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | 309038 | -33664 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2608 | ...

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/9/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 804.50 | +1.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 534,465 | +2092↑ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 22 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -33449 | +2583↑ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,800.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 105.9 | -0.27↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 862 | -5↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 849 | -5↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 768 | -3↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 44 | -6↓ | | | 铁矿石62%普氏指数（前一日，美元/吨） | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report is generally bearish, but domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and aquaculture season boosts demand. However, soybean meal substitution and potential increase in domestic imported soybean supply suppress the market. Today, rapeseed meal saw increased positions and price decline, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is up, which exerts pressure on prices. Domestically, terminal consumption boost is limited, and the supply - demand is loose. But low oil mill operating rates and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure. Affected by the decline of soybean and palm oil, rapeseed oil's upward trend has slowed [2][3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil's active contract closed at 9999 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; rapeseed meal's active contract closed at 2460 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan. ICE rapeseed's active contract closed at 640.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 7.7 Canadian dollars; rapeseed's active contract closed at 5264 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil's 1 - 5 spread was 466 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; rapeseed meal's 1 - 5 spread was 99 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil's main contract positions were 336743 lots, up 3703 lots; rapeseed meal's were 399317 lots, up 22735 lots [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Rapeseed oil's net long positions were 22886 lots, down 3903 lots; rapeseed meal's were - 41680 lots, down 27612 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil had 8202 warehouse receipts, unchanged; rapeseed meal had 10104, down 110 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10060 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. Rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil's average price was 10125 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. Imported rapeseed's import cost was 7996.89 yuan/ton, up 97.04 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil's main contract basis was 7 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; rapeseed meal's was 110 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - Substitute product prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1410 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil was 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Global production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import volume: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume for the month was 15 tons, up 4 tons; rapeseed meal import volume for the month was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 tons, unchanged; imported rapeseed weekly operating rate was 12.79%, down 0.27% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed's on - disk pressing profit was 866 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30 tons, down 1.51 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil's weekly提货量 was 4.33 tons, up 1.3 tons; rapeseed meal's was 3.57 tons, up 0.83 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 tons [2]. - Consumption: Social consumer goods retail sales for catering revenue for the month was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal's at - the - money call option implied volatility was 17.57%, down 0.91%; put option was 17.56%, down 0.92%. Rapeseed oil's at - the - money call and put option implied volatility was 14.25%, up 1.76% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal's 20 - day historical volatility was 15.96%, up 0.01%; 60 - day was 22.2%, up 0.01%. Rapeseed oil's 20 - day historical volatility was 7.91%, up 0.42%; 60 - day was 12.74%, down 0.48% [2]. Industry News - On Tuesday, ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.34% supported by the strength of Chicago soybean and soybean oil futures. Futures prices rose 4.9 - 8.5 Canadian dollars, with the November contract up 8.5 Canadian dollars to 640.8 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, lower than last month's estimate but higher than analysts' average expectation. Production and ending stocks are both up, making the report bearish. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and aquaculture boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution and potential increase in imported soybean supply suppress the market. The rapeseed meal price declined with increased positions today [2]. Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The USDA report shows that Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is up 750 thousand tons to 20 million tons, exports are down 900 thousand tons, domestic use is up 500 thousand tons, and ending stocks are up 1.34 million tons. Domestically, terminal consumption boost is limited, and supply - demand is loose, but low operating rates and fewer near - month purchases ease supply pressure. Rapeseed oil's upward trend slowed due to the decline of soybean and palm oil [2][3][5]. Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, as well as the development of China - Canada and China - US trade policies [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract fluctuated weakly. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued 19 measures in five aspects to expand service consumption on September 16. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%, inventory slightly decreased, and apparent demand significantly increased. Overall, the rebound of steel prices affects terminal demand, but the new round of policy benefits in the short term still support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 axis, and the red column turns green. Operationally, go long on pullbacks, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,390 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2] - HC main contract open interest: 1,391,462 lots, up 523 lots [2] - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -126,409 lots, up 6,479 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 34 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 60,941 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 222 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - HC main contract basis: 60 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB fine ore: 792 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi-first-class metallurgical coke: 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,060 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45-port iron ore inventory: 13,849.47 million tons, up 24.15 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 43.76 million tons, up 3.10 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 633.61 million tons, up 10.07 million tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 128.95 million tons, down 7.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.85%, up 3.47% [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.2%, up 4.43% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 325.14 million tons, up 10.90 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.06%, up 2.79% [2] - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil plant inventory: 80.88 million tons, up 0.90 million tons [2] - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 292.44 million tons, down 1.92 million tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 901 million tons, down 38 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2] - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 65.71 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a daily output of 2.1196 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%; produced 60.8 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, with a daily output of 1.9614 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%; produced 68.73 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a daily output of 2.2172 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [2] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's air conditioner production in August 2025 was 16.819 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; the cumulative production from January to August was 199.646 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [2] 3.7 Key Focus - Thursday's hot-rolled coil weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory [2]