| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7245 | 11 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7245 | 11 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7289 | 14 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7299 | -10 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 146481 | -109562 持仓量(日,手) | 520256 | -3820 | | | 9-1价差 | 54 | -21 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 376996 | -917 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 434704 | 3546 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -57708 | -4463 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7248.7 | -0.87 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日,元/吨) | 7345.24 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-09-17 当补仓，另外部分农业流向增加，尿素企业出货阶段性好转，但国内整体需求不及供应，尿素日产仍有提 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 升趋势，加之尿素企业面临国庆收单，预计短期尿素企业库存或继续累积。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 73,180.00 | +500.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -168,566.00 | -6946.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 300,437.00 | -9009.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -280.00 | +80.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 38,963.00 | +338.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 72,850.00 | +400.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 70,600.00 | +400.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -330.00 | -100.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 886.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） | 7,205.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a relatively stable supply - demand stage. The Guinea rainy season affects bauxite shipping, but domestic alumina production remains stable. With stable electrolytic aluminum capacity and increased inquiries from aluminum plants, the spot market transactions are improving. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. Stable alumina supply, falling alumina prices, and expected interest rate cuts support aluminum prices. The production profit of smelters is good, and downstream orders are improving. It is suggested to trade in a range - bound manner with a light position [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a stage of slightly reduced supply and warming demand. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices, but high inventory restricts downstream purchases. It is recommended to trade in a range - bound manner with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,975 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the alumina futures main contract is 2,979 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. The spreads of some contracts have changed, e.g., the main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is 5 yuan, up 105 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have decreased. The inventory of alumina has increased, while the LME aluminum inventory remains unchanged. The Shanghai Aluminum inventory on the SHFE has increased [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum and some other spot products remain stable, while the alumina spot price has decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy has weakened, while the basis of electrolytic aluminum has strengthened. The basis of alumina has also weakened [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production has decreased to 756.49 million tons, but the capacity utilization rate has increased to 84.75%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part has increased [2]. - **Trade**: The import and export of aluminum waste and alumina have changed, with an increase in the import of aluminum waste and an increase in the export of alumina [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Production and Capacity**: The production of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum products, and some alloys has changed. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, while the production of aluminum products has decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased [2]. **Downstream and Application** - **Production**: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots has increased, while the production of aluminum alloy and some other products has decreased [2]. - **Sales and Consumption**: The export of some aluminum products has decreased, and the real - estate climate index has declined. However, automobile production has increased [2]. **Option Situation** - **Volatility**: The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum has decreased, and the implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money option has also decreased [2]. - **Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.19, down 0.0514, indicating a bullish sentiment in the option market [2]. **Industry News** - **Policy**: Xi Jinping's important article emphasizes the construction of a unified national market and addresses various market disorders [2]. - **Economic Data**: Industrial added - value, investment, consumption, and real - estate data have been released, showing different trends [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Wall Street strategists warn of a potential slowdown in the US stock market after the Fed's interest rate cut [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose and then pulled back, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper price is supported by the cost as the TC spot index of copper ore is in the negative range and the concentrate price remains firm. Supply of scrap copper and copper concentrate is tight, restricting smelter capacity, and combined with macro - factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price is in a high - level range. The strong copper price suppresses downstream purchasing sentiment, resulting in a light trading volume in the spot market. The peak season has not yet boosted demand, and consumption recovery is slow. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0148, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,119.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 67 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 165,216 lots, a decrease of 14,040 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,538 lots, a decrease of 1,884 lots. The LME copper inventory was 152,625 tons, a decrease of 1,325 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,054 tons, an increase of 12,203 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 17,175 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 33,692 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 81,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market was 81,235 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 53.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 240 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 61.93 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.49 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, an increase of 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.30 US dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.45 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 71,280 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 71,980 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 56,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, an increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 60,309 billion yuan, an increase of 6,729.23 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250 million pieces, a decrease of 439,220.70 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.31%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.73%, an increase of 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 13.92%, a decrease of 0.0177. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.37, a decrease of 0.0148 [2]. Industry News - The article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market" by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi. The government is determined to remove stubborn problems, rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering, and local investment promotion; promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade and improve the legal system. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, among which private investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%; the total retail sales of consumer goods were 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In August, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Among them, Shanghai increased by 5.9%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 3.5%, 4.3%, and 1.7% respectively. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 2.4% and 3.7% year - on - year respectively, with the declines narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60,309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%; among which, residential investment was 46,382 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.9%. The sales area of new commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; among which, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 4.7%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 55,015 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%; among which, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 7.0%. Wall Street top strategists said that after the Fed cut interest rates this week, the record - breaking rally in the US stock market may lose momentum temporarily. Strategists from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Oppenheimer Asset Management warned that a more cautious tone may replace the bullish sentiment as investors turn their attention to the potential economic slowdown [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The overall supply - demand situation of the polysilicon market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The photovoltaic industry chain has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high terminal transaction pressure. The price of polysilicon is expected to weaken, and it is likely to maintain a volatile trend. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or arrange put options [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 53,670 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the main position is 127,779 lots, down 4,433 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,525 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,755 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 51,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,995 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.45 US dollars/kg, up 0.25 US dollars [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,915 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 pieces, up 21,456,820 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 pieces, up 3,429,750 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, down 0.02 US dollars [3]. b) Industry News The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index tracked by the Photovoltaic Leading ETF (159609) rose 1.62%. Among the heavy - weight stocks, Arctech Solar rose 5.5%, Ginlong Technologies rose 3.8%, Deye Inverter rose 3.6%, Junda Co., Ltd. rose 3.3%, Shangneng Electric rose 3.1%, Sungrow Power Supply rose 7.3%, LONGi Green Energy rose 1.0%, TBEA Co., Ltd. rose 0.3%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. rose 0.8%. The macro - level emphasizes rectifying the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition in enterprises. For polysilicon, the inventory is rising, but the increase is expected to be limited due to the anti - involution in the industry [3]. c) Key Points to Watch There is no news today [3].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | 2025/9/16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1169.700 -1.2↓ EC次主力收盘价 1673.8 | +33.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2510-EC2512价差 -504.10 -11.00↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 -402.40 | -48.60↓ | | EC合约基差 | 270.54 -6.60↓ | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 47517 -255↓ | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1440.24 -126.22↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,349.84 | 369.36↑ | | SCFI（综合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, with 1 - 7Y maturity yields down about 1.50 - 2.50bp, and 10Y, 30Y maturity yields down about 1bp to 1.78%, 2.08% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the TS, TF, T, TL main contracts rising 0.04%, 0.13%, 0.15%, 0.00% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to fluctuate around 1.50%. [2] - In the domestic fundamental aspect, in August, the growth rates of industrial added - value and social retail sales slowed down, the scale of fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. In terms of financial data, in August, China's social financing growth rate declined slightly, the support of government bonds for social financing weakened, new loans turned from negative to positive, but the credit growth rate continued to weaken, and overall demand remained weak; the M1 - M2 gap narrowed, and the marginal improvement of capital activation degree. [2] - Overseas, the US labor market slowed down significantly, the inflation level rose moderately, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September was firm. The market has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Recently, the bond market has been oscillating at the bottom under the influence of policy signals such as anti - involution and the reform of bond fund redemption fees. The market is sensitive to negative news, and the overall repair momentum is weak. In the context of the weak recovery of the fundamentals, the possibility of a trend decline in the bond market is low, and the yield is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. [2] - Strategically, it is recommended to observe the adjustment rhythm of Treasury bond futures in the short term, and participate in band operations after the market stabilizes; at the same time, pay attention to the term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, TL main contracts were 108.000 (up 0.15%), 105.795 (up 0.13%), 102.414 (up 0.04%), 115.480 (unchanged) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL main contracts increased by 44141, 35801, 19618, 66446 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2512 - 2603 spread increased by 0.03 to 0.34, the T12 - TL12 spread increased by 0.11 to - 7.48, etc. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, TS, TL main contracts all increased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also increased. [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220017.IB, 220019.IB, etc. increased. [2] - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds decreased by 0.25bp to 1.3975%, while the yields of 3 - year remained unchanged, and the yields of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year increased by 0.75bp, 0.50bp, 1.05bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, silver - pledged 7 - day, Shibor 7 - day, silver - pledged 14 - day, and Shibor 14 - day interest rates all increased. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Market News - **Domestic Economic Data**: On September 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national industrial added - value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. Social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.4% year - on - year and 0.17% month - on - month. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month and the same as the same month last year. [2] - **Sino - US Talks**: From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as properly resolving the TikTok - related issue, reducing investment barriers, and promoting relevant economic and trade cooperation. [2] - **Housing Prices**: In August 2025, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally continued to narrow. [2] 3.5 Key Events to Watch - September 16, 20:30, US August retail sales month - on - month rate. - September 18, 02:00, the Fed FOMC announces the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary. [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Near the Fed's interest rate meeting, the precious metals market experienced increased intraday volatility. The London silver price hit a record high and then declined, while the gold price continued its oscillatory and bullish trend. The recent weak US economic data continued to support the September interest rate cut expectation, and the market trading sentiment remained optimistic overall [2]. - The moderate rise in consumer prices alleviated market concerns about a sharp rebound in inflation and supported the September interest rate cut decision. The current moderate inflation level was insufficient to change the Fed's easing path of starting an interest - rate cut cycle in September, and the easing expectation continued to boost the trading sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. - Trump's criticism of Fed Chairman Powell and his call for immediate and significant interest rate cuts provided safe - haven support for the gold price. In the short term, the buying demand at the key support levels in the precious metals market was still relatively strong, but considering that the interest rate cut expectation was already fully reflected in the current gold and silver futures prices, it was advisable to wait and see in the short term. Attention should be paid to the callback pressure after the market fully digested the interest rate cut expectation, and short - selling on rallies with light positions was recommended. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was 820 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was 9940 - 10150 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 842.08 yuan/gram, up 10.48 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10108 yuan/kilogram, up 91 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 104060 lots, down 289 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 195504 lots, down 8903 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 172844 lots, up 4300 lots; those of Shanghai Silver were 129824 lots, up 5969 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 53226 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 1231261 kilograms, down 12220 kilograms [2]. b. Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 835.8 yuan/gram, up 6.7 yuan; the silver spot price was 10104 yuan/kilogram, up 129 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.28 yuan/gram, down 3.78 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 4 yuan/kilogram, up 38 yuan [2]. c. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 976.8 tons, up 2 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15069.6 tons, down 67.77 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 261740 contracts, up 12210 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 53937 contracts, down 1986 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. d. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.48%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 10.96%, up 0.09 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.91%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 20.91%, up 0.43 percentage points [2]. e. Industry News - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and urged immediate and significant interest rate cuts. The US unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly 4 years, and the weak employment data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut, with analysts expecting a new round of rate cuts in September [2]. - The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far lower than the market expectation of 5. New orders and shipment indicators both fell to the lowest level since April 2024 [2]. - European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel said the ECB should maintain the current interest rate level, and the inflation risk remained tilted to the upside. Unless the eurozone suffered another major shock, interest rates were expected to remain at the current level for some time [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed this week was 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut was 4.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut in October was 23.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 73.8%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut was 3.1% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5944, up 1.02%. The market should be treated as fluctuating with a bullish bias. For silicon - iron, the 2511 contract was reported at 5700, up 0.71%, and it should also be treated as fluctuating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price was 5944 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; SF (silicon - iron) main contract closing price was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. SM futures contract holdings were 553,301 hands, down 166 hands; SF futures contract holdings were 398,446 hands, down 2074 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon and silicon - iron both increased. The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 36 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 104 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. SM warehouse receipts decreased by 943 to 59,992; SF warehouse receipts increased by 720 to 17,037 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton, while the price of Guizhou and Yunnan manganese - silicon decreased. The price of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia silicon - iron increased, and the price of Qinghai silicon - iron remained unchanged. The manganese - silicon index average increased by 38 yuan/ton to 5658 yuan/ton. The SM main contract basis increased by 12 yuan to - 194 yuan/ton, and the SF main contract basis increased by 50 yuan to - 240 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African manganese ore Mn38 block at Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 24 yuan/ton - degree. The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1100 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 690 yuan/ton. Manganese ore port inventory increased by 9.30 tons to 452.50 tons, and the price of silica remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate increased by 0.93 percentage points to 47.38%, and the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.50 percentage points to 34.84%. Manganese - silicon supply increased by 1295 tons to 214,130 tons, and silicon - iron supply decreased by 2000 tons to 113,000 tons. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron manufacturer inventories both increased, and the national steel mill inventories of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron also increased [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron from the five major steel types decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 3.47 percentage points to 83.85%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 4.43 percentage points to 90.20%. The monthly crude steel output decreased by 228.82 tons to 7737 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year, with a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points compared to January - July. Infrastructure investment increased by 2.0%, with a slowdown of 1.2 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, with a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points; real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, with an expanded decline of 0.9 percentage points. In August, new - home prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and in second - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with both declines narrowing by 0.1 percentage points. The next stage should continue to expand domestic demand, promote price recovery [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For manganese - silicon, the output has been on the rise since mid - May, with neutral inventory levels. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 9.3 tons, and the demand for hot metal has returned to the previous level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 155 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 315 yuan/ton. Steel mills are trying to lower prices, while factories are trying to hold prices. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. For silicon - iron, after the previous profit improvement, the output has increased rapidly, with neutral inventory levels. The cost support has strengthened, and there is expected demand release in the downstream steel market before the festival. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 340 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 260 yuan/ton. The 75B silicon - iron tender price of HBIS in September is 5800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages [2].