| | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1014.680 | 0.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 17609 | +1168.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 186,798.00 | -13095.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 11,811.00 | -4436.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 351,301.00 | +74883.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,367,254.00 | +137097.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 93711 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 881,949 | -17714↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1007.69 | 0.82↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 17,348.00 | 1029.00↑ | | | 沪金主 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - EB2602 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 6,598 yuan/ton. The new 200,000 - ton device of Dongming started production last week, and the 600,000 - ton device of Lianyungang Petrochemical and the 70,000 - ton device of Guangzhou Petrochemical restarted. The impact of the maintenance of the 350,000 - ton device of Baolai expanded, and the production and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased month - on - month. The downstream operating rate mainly decreased, and the consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS decreased month - on - month. The dominant inventory generally maintained a destocking trend. The loss of non - integrated processes deepened, while the profit of integrated processes expanded. The restart of the 620,000 - ton device of Zhenhai Liande was postponed to the second quarter, and the 350,000 - ton device of Baolai restarted this week, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise. The integrated device has good profitability, and the number of newly added maintenance devices is limited. Due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the downstream EPS maintains a low operating rate. Some PS and ABS devices have recovered, but overall, demand is difficult to increase significantly. As the domestic styrene supply - demand turns to a relatively loose balance, the destocking rhythm of the dominant inventory is expected to slow down. In terms of cost, affected by the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the recent international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,380 and the pressure around 6,690 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) was 338,468 lots, a month - on - month increase of 15,351 lots; the closing price of the active contract was 6,598 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 68 yuan/ton; the closing price of the January contract was 6,535 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 8,648 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 14,105 lots; the short position was 377,484 lots, and the warrant quantity was 1,700 lots, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,682 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 809.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 819.5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6,550 yuan/ton, 6,725 yuan/ton, and 6,580 yuan/ton respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 746 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 726 US dollars/ton, the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 662.5 US dollars/ton, and the FD US Gulf price was 408 US dollars/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 661.17 cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 279 US dollars/ton, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 739 US dollars/ton. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,325 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The national inventory was 170,960 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,550 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 139,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,600 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 84,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.81% (a month - on - month decrease of 1.96%), 70.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%), 54.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%), 36%, and 79.23% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 346,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.38%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS was 261,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%. As of December 18th, the inventory of styrene plants was 171,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. As of December 22nd, the inventory in the East China port was 139,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%; the inventory in the South China port was 11,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26.67%. As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/12/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 779.50 | +1.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 553,717 | -317↓ | | | I 1-5合约价差（元/吨） | 18.5 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 4593 | -394↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 1,300.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 104.1 | -0.27↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 846 | -1↓ 青岛港60.5%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 840 | -1↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 762 | -4↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力 ...

免责声明 持续进行影响，种植户与贸易主体恐高心理陆续显现，开始释放粮源，且下游需求偏淡，企业库存有所回 升，追高采购意愿不强，价格继续小幅调整。盘面来看，前期连续回落后，近日玉米期价维持震荡，暂且 观望。 | 观点总结（ | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。截至12月17日，全国玉米淀粉 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 企业淀粉库存总量107.4万吨，较上周增加2.50万吨，周增幅2.38%，月增幅0.47%；年同比增幅22.32%。不过，元旦及春节备货 | | | | | 淀粉） | | | | | | 重点关注 | 或提振下游行业需求预期，且木薯淀粉涨幅过大后，部分下游客户重新采购玉米淀粉，进一步提升其需求增量。盘面来看，近来受 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | | | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | | | | 玉米回落影响，淀粉同步回落，短期观望。 | | | | | | | 研究员: 许方莉 | 期货从业资格号 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share main indices closed generally higher, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue chips. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, with over 4,100 stocks rising. Industry sectors generally rose, with national defense and military industry and electronics sectors strengthening significantly, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors led the decline [2]. - Trump's statement strengthened market expectations that the new Fed chair will cut interest rates. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, with the PPI - CPI gap widening for two consecutive months, and deflation pressure still existing. The December LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations [2]. - The weakening of the economic indicators in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares. However, the positive tone of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference injected confidence into the market, providing strong support for the bottom of A-shares. This week, the market is in a macro - data vacuum period, and the impact of the external environment on A-shares has increased. The recent expectation of the dovish stance of the new Fed chair has driven the US dollar weaker, and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose 25.2 to 4595.0, and the IC main contract (2603) rose 111.0 to 7240.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. also showed an upward trend. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased by 17.8 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: The spreads between current - season and current - month, and next - season and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net positions increased by 1739.0 to - 27,736.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 13.3 to 4634.06, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 2.3 to 3025.2, the CSI 500 Index rose 95.3 to 7352.0, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 114.0 to 7506.4 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis increased by 10.3 to - 39.1 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased by 241.31 billion yuan to 18,972.42 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased by 149.23 billion yuan to 25,315.63 billion yuan. The northbound trading volume decreased by 17.23 billion yuan to 1804.38 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks increased by 47.95% to 75.59%, the Shibor decreased by 0.005% to 1.267%, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option increased by 12.00 to 56.60, and the implied volatility increased. The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option decreased by 10.40 to 83.20, and the implied volatility increased [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **LPR Announcement**: On December 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (the same as last time), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% (the same as last time) [2]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "strangling the market" due to inflation concerns [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - December 27, 9:30: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for November [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - BZ2603 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 5,461 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month-on-month, while that of hydrogenated benzene increased. The domestic pure benzene output rose slightly. Most downstream operating rates declined, with significant drops in caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased month-on-month. The inventory at East China ports accumulated month-on-month, with high inventory pressure. The profit of petroleum benzene continued to recover, but the valuation remained low due to weak supply and demand. This week, most petroleum benzene plants will operate stably, and the load of some hydrogenated benzene plants will increase. Domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The restart of a large styrene plant has been postponed, limiting the growth of its operating rate. The caprolactam industry will continue to cut production to maintain prices, and the plant load is expected to further decrease. The load of aniline and adipic acid plants is expected to increase slightly, but the impact is relatively limited. The supply-demand gap in the spot market will narrow slowly, and the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In terms of cost, due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support around 5,360 and the resistance around 5,520 on the daily K-line [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract was 5,461 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the settlement price was 5,435 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 11,658 lots, down 1,607 lots; the open interest was 23,458 lots, up 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5,325 yuan/ton, 5,150 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, and 5,155 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -201, 0, and -1 yuan. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 5,325 yuan/ton and 5,050 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) was 659 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in China (CFR) was 666 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 63.21 US dollars/barrel, up 0.42 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 542.25 US dollars/ton, up 2.37 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.94%, down 0.17 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.66 tons, down 0.1 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 26 tons, unchanged. The production cost was 5,161.2 yuan/ton, down 32.2 yuan; the production profit was 163 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 69.13%, up 0.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 69.2%, 74.93%, 61.35%, and 59.6% respectively, with changes of -5.37, -4.54, -14.59, and 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.17% to 74.94%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 3.05% to 55.99%. Domestic pure benzene output increased slightly [2] - From December 13th to 19th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.82% to 68.49% [2] - As of December 22nd, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 27.3 tons, up 5% from last week [2] - From December 13th to 19th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 55 yuan/ton to 163 yuan/ton [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Platinum prices may be supported in the medium to long term by expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support prices. The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 657.65 yuan/gram, up 43.00 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 578.45 yuan/gram, up 37.80 yuan. The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 606.99 yuan/gram, up 45.38 yuan; the spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 458.00 yuan/gram, up 23.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 50.66 yuan/gram, up 2.38 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 120.45 yuan/gram, down 14.80 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.90, down 0.36; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 14.00, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - The US Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. US President Trump hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well. Gold has risen over 71% this year, and silver has risen about 147%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7% [2] Key Points to Watch - The number of initial jobless claims in the US at 21:30 on December 24 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 15,800 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,750 in the short - term. Tire enterprises are in the seasonal off - season, with weak capacity utilization, slow shipment rhythm, and rising finished - product inventory. Some enterprises have production control and stop - limit production phenomena due to production and sales pressure [2]. 3. Section Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 360 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 12,615 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - numbered rubber is 210 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 3,035 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 167,630 lots, with an increase of 21,101 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 51,674 lots, with a decrease of 1,655 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,521 lots, with an increase of 1,478 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber is - 11,718 lots, with an increase of 1,742 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 91,330 tons, with an increase of 2,600 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,845 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,840 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 770 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,952 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 104 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 1,905 yuan/ton, with an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes is 55.29 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.46 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.7 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 51.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, with a decrease of 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.91 days, with an increase of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.48 days, with an increase of 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.74%, with an increase of 2.44 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, with an increase of 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.54%, with a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.56%, with a decrease of 1.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2605 contract rose 1.55% to close at 4,781 yuan/ton. Last week, the 400,000 - ton units of Yibin Tianyuan and Hanwha Ningbo were shut down, and the 300,000 - ton unit of Zhenyang Development restarted, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The national average cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was repaired. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased, and the social inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the same period of history. This week, the 400,000 - ton unit of Yibin Tianyuan will restart, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. In December, a small number of unit commissioning was postponed, the high - start state of the industry was generally maintained, and the supply pressure was high. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the off - season, and the start - up rate of hard products such as pipes and profiles may maintain a seasonal downward trend. The global PVC supply is sufficient, the overseas market competition is fierce, and the export boost is limited. The short - term is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, V2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 4,470 and the pressure around 4,860 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,781 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; the trading volume was 1,135,087 lots, down 739,359 lots; the open interest was 973,277 lots, up 8,434 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 939,477 lots, down 17,700 lots; the short position was 1,010,119 lots, down 12,369 lots; the net long position was - 70,642 lots, down 5,331 lots [2] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,445.77 yuan/ton, up 78.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,467.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 252 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,615 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,425 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 75 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 407 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 448 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.36%, down 1.07%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.74%, down 1.92%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 76.54%, down 2.36%. The total social inventory of PVC was 51.06 tons, down 0.68 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 46.83 tons, down 0.42 tons, and in the South China region was 4.23 tons, down 0.26 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 53,456.7 million square meters, up 4,395.31 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 656,066.2 million square meters, up 3,127.17 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 21.59%, up 3.61%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.67%, up 2.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.64%, up 1.42%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 17.63%, up 1.41% [2] Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 3.5% to 45.39%, among which the pipe operating rate remained stable at 37.6%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 3.7% to 31.43%. As of December 18th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% to 1.0566 million tons compared with last week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with an expectation of a global sugar market supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.21 cents or 1.40%, settling at 15.20 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the number of sugar - cane crushing mills is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. Although the sugar import volume in November decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the import progress slowed down significantly, the short - term sugar price mainly follows the upward trend of the external market price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 107 yuan; the main contract position was 466,130 lots, a decrease of 42,820 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 5038, an increase of 559; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 71,579 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 1102, a decrease of 79. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4103 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4151 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5240 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it was 5340 yuan/ton, a rise of 70 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it was 5400 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of sugar in Guangxi was 237.4 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil were 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 593.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1124 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1076 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 28 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 14 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume was 44 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume was 434 million tons, an increase of 44 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, an increase of 42 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 15.03%, a rise of 6.33%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 15.04%, a rise of 6.35%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.07%, a rise of 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.08%, a rise of 0.12% [2]. Industry News - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of about 581,000 tons, 13,000 tons less than last year. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season, 1 less than the previous season. The remaining 2 non - crushing mills will finish starting up on December 25th and December 26th [2].